Offseason Outlook: Chicago Cubs
The Cubs won a playoff series for the first time in eight years. With clean books beyond 2026, will they make a major rotation addition this winter?
Guaranteed Contracts
- Dansby Swanson, SS: $105MM through 2029
- Ian Happ, LF: $18MM through 2026
- Seiya Suzuki, DH/OF: $18MM through 2026
- Jameson Taillon, SP: $18MM through 2026
- Nico Hoerner, 2B: $12MM through 2026
- Matthew Boyd, SP: $16.5MM through 2026
- Carson Kelly, C: $6.5MM through 2026
Option Decisions
- Shota Imanaga, SP: three-year, $57.75MM club option. If declined, Imanaga has a $15.25MM player option for 2026. If Imanaga exercises that, he'd have another $15.25MM player option for 2027 if the Cubs don't exercise a $42.5MM club option for 2027-28.
- Andrew Kittredge, RP: $9MM club option with a $1MM buyout
- Colin Rea, SP/RP: $6MM club option with a $750K buyout
- Justin Turner, 1B/DH: $10MM mutual option with a $2MM buyout
Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; salary projections via Matt Swartz)
- Reese McGuire (5.110): $1.9MM
- Justin Steele (4.143): $6.55MM
- Eli Morgan (4.091): $1.1MM
- Javier Assad (3.027): $1.9MM
- Non-tender candidates: McGuire, Morgan
Free Agents
- Kyle Tucker, Brad Keller, Caleb Thielbar, Drew Pomeranz, Taylor Rogers, Michael Soroka, Aaron Civale, Willi Castro, Ryan Brasier
The Cubs broke through this year with a 92-win season, their highest total since 2018. They reached the playoffs for the first time since 2020 and won a playoff game and series for the first time since 2017. After the Cubs lost Game 5 of the division series to the Brewers with a "bullpen game" pitching approach, fans couldn't help but wonder if the team could have gone further with a healthy Cade Horton and/or Justin Steele.
Let's start this offseason outlook by assessing the complicated option of the pitcher the Cubs chose to avoid in Game 5, Shota Imanaga. Imanaga, 32, was a rousing success last year as an MLB rookie. He made the All-Star team and garnered Cy Young and Rookie of the Year votes, posting a 2.91 ERA in 173 1/3 innings.
After eight starts this year, Imanaga suffered a strained left hamstring that knocked him out for 53 days. On the season, Imanaga's control remained excellent, but his average fastball velocity slipped below 91 miles per hour and his strikeout rate dropped below league average. Among starters with at least 100 innings, Imanaga's 29.2% groundball rate was the lowest in baseball, leading to a 1.93 HR/9 rate that ranked second-worst.
Imanaga still managed a 3.73 ERA, but it's fair to say he demonstrated the skills of perhaps a 4.20 pitcher. Even if 150 innings of a 4ish ERA is what the Cubs can expect from Imanaga moving forward, that's rotation-worthy. The question is whether the Cubs would sign such a pitcher to a three-year, $57.75MM contract heading into his age-32 season, and commit to that in early November.
A good comp for that might be Dallas Keuchel's three-year, $55.5MM deal with the White Sox six years ago. Though a groundball heavy pitcher, Keuchel was also a soft-tossing lefty heading into his age-32 season. That contract did not go well.
There are soft factors to consider here, such as the Cubs' recruiting efforts toward other Japanese players and Imanaga's popularity with fans last year. MLBTR writers debated Imanaga's complicated option situation, and here's our best guess:
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MLB Mailbag: Skubal, Castellanos, Happ, Pablo Lopez
This week's mailbag includes questions on Tarik Skubal, Nick Castellanos, Ian Happ, Pablo Lopez, and much more.
Abner asks:
The Tarik Skubal trade rumors dominated the news during the past weekend. The NY Mets has been mentioned as a possible destination for the Detroit Tigers' ace. But what would be a realistic prospect capital cost the Mets will have to live with if they really want to get a guy as talented as Skubal (even for just 1 year of team control)? Now, Freddy Peralta could also be available in the trade market, and he for sure should be a more affordable option than Skubal. Knowing the way David Stearns values the farm system of the team and his connection with the Brewers, which trade has more probability to get done , a trade for Peralta or a trade for Skubal? Thanks in advance.
There's never been any indication Skubal and the Tigers were close on a contract extension, nor is there a sign the team's willingness to trade him has changed. Steve Adams and I differ on the likelihood of an offseason trade happening. In a discussion last week, Steve pegged the chances of a Skubal trade this winter at 0.25%. I'm more in the range of 5-10%.
Steve wrote in his live chat yesterday, "I think the Tigers would be crazy to truly make Skubal available. They’re just not going to be better in 2026 without him, regardless of the return, unless you’re just banking on Skubal getting hurt. He’s the best pitcher in baseball (sorry, Paul Skenes, but you can be No. 2 for now). I would absolutely just ride out the year and try to sign him in free agency. The draft pick after the first round isn’t nothing, and if the Tigers are earnest about being in a World Series window right now, then trading Skubal isn’t something I’d spend much time entertaining. Let teams make the crazy offers, sure, but they’d have to be offered something outrageous to consider it."
My stance is that I can't peer into the mind of Tigers owner Christopher Ilitch. Some owners do trade superstar players in the offseason before their walk year if they determine they cannot sign him. We've seen it with Kyle Tucker, Mookie Betts, Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes, and others. I think Steve might say that Skubal is different from those players, the teams are in somewhat different spots, and/or their owners had different philosophies.
I find Skubal unlikely to be traded this winter, but it wouldn't shock me.
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Mariners, Orioles, Dodgers, Cubs, Cardinals, Reds, Twins, Rangers, and Diamondbacks) - Fernando Rodney: Pitched from 2002 to 2019 and made 3x All-Star teams. While he played seven years in Detroit he also appeared for Angels, Rays, Mariners, Cubs, Padres,
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MLB Mailbag: Alonso, Skubal, Grisham
This week's mailbag gets into Pete Alonso's reported contract demand, the Tigers and Tarik Skubal, possible Trent Grisham suitors, and much more.
Chris asks:
Alonso saying he is seeking a 7 year deal is essentially him saying that he's out of Queens. So if you're Stearns, is the play to go all out for Murakami? Short-term on a Josh Naylor? Or give the keys to Clifford, strengthen up elsewhere like CF, 3B, DH to supplement the offense now you don't have Pete? Or just really go all in on your "Run Prevention" Plan, go get a Skubal or Skenes, sign Valdez or Cease and fortify the defense. There's a lot of questions for the Mets who honestly feel like they are only a few pieces for being a legit World Series Contender again.
Abner asks:
Pete Alonso is asking for a 7 year deal (he will be 31 by the beginning of next season) and David Stearns does not like that type of commitment for players in the wrong side of the 30's. It is known that the Mets are showing interest in NPB player Munetaka Murakami who is a slugger in Japan, but is not yet proven against MLB pitching. Murakami also comes with some concerns (poor plate discipline/not excel with defense), but based on recent Japanese stars that have come to MLB (Roki Sasaki/Yoshinobu Yamamoto/Seiya Suzuki) we could expect him to command a longer and more expensive deal than the one Alonso is looking for. Additionally, there will be no other first basemen of that same caliber available in this offseason free agency class. So, how feasible for the Mets would be to get a deal done with Pete Alonso and how that deal would look like? Thanks in advance.
On Saturday, Mike Puma of the New York Post wrote, "Alonso, who turns 31 in December, is expected to seek a contract of at least seven years — a length consistent with deals the player’s agent, Scott Boras, completed in recent seasons for Marcus Semien and Matt Chapman at the same age (Chapman received a six-year extension from the Giants after his first season with the club on a different contract)."
Start with the fact that both of those comps are a major stretch for Alonso.
Semien did indeed sign a seven-year deal heading into his age-31 season. This came off a monster 6-WAR campaign, Semien's second in three years. Alonso has not even reached 4 WAR since he was a rookie. The gap in defensive value on the two is enormous. Semien was a Gold Glove second baseman who was also capable of playing shortstop.
Puma makes a case that Alonso's first base defense isn't as bad as the metrics suggest, because he's good at making scoops. That may be true, but he's still a pretty clear net negative given what two completely different metrics, Outs Above Average and Defensive Runs Saved, say.
More crucially, Semien was an up-the-middle player, not a first baseman who's expected to move to DH soon. Semien's defensive abilities have sustained 2+ WAR value even as his offense has slipped below league average. And Semien's seventh year, brought about by a level of free agent competition Alonso is unlikely to have, looks regrettable.
Chapman's deal was not signed on the open market. It's a six-year extension covering age 32-37. I suppose a case can be made that if a 32-year-old can get six years, a 31-year-old should get seven. Like Semien, defense is a huge part of Chapman's game, making him a poor comp for Alonso.
The correct comps are other first basemen, plus designated hitters. Modern GMs have clearly demonstrated they will not give first basemen and DHs long-term deals. The fact that no one offered Alonso a good one last year was not entirely due to the qualifying offer. It has been nearly four years since a free agent first baseman of any age signed for even five years. That was Freddie Freeman getting six in March 2022. Freeman clearly a better hitter than Alonso is.
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Offseason Outlook: Chicago White Sox
The Reinsdorf era may be drawing to a close. With clean books and many unsettled positions, do the White Sox have any bold offseason moves up their sleeve?
Guaranteed Contracts
- Andrew Benintendi, LF: $31MM through 2027
Option Decisions
- Luis Robert Jr., CF: $20MM club option ($2MM buyout); deal includes $20MM club option for 2027
- Martin Perez, SP: $10MM mutual option ($1.5MM buyout)
Total 2026 commitments (if Robert's option is exercised): $38MM
Total long-term commitments (if Robert's option is exercised): $52.5MM through 2027
Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; salary projections via Matt Swartz)
- Mike Tauchman (5.143): $3.4MM
- Steven Wilson (3.166): $1.5MM
- Derek Hill (3.040): $1MM
Non-tender candidates: Wilson, Hill
Free Agents
- Tyler Alexander, Michael A. Taylor (retired)
In last year's Offseason Outlook, we briefly touched on the bigger-picture questions of who will own the White Sox long-term and where they will play in 2030. One of those questions has likely been answered. In June of this year, the team announced that "Jerry Reinsdorf and Justin Ishbia have reached a long-term investment agreement that establishes a framework for Ishbia to obtain a future controlling interest in the White Sox," adding that "Ishbia will make capital infusions into the White Sox as a limited partner in 2025 and 2026 that will be used to pay down existing debt and support ongoing team operations."
That's the headline, but the details are crucial:
"The agreement provides that, from 2029–33, Reinsdorf will have the option to sell the controlling interest to Ishbia. After the 2034 season, Ishbia will have the option to acquire the controlling interest. In the event of any such future transaction, all limited partners of the Sox would have the opportunity to sell to Ishbia at that time. In addition to Justin Ishbia, his brother Mat Ishbia, and father Jeff Ishbia will also be significant investors. There is no assurance that any such future transaction will occur, and in no event will such a transaction take place before 2029."
If you've got 20 minutes to spare, check out this discussion between Alex Maragos of NBC 5 Chicago and Jon Greenberg of The Athletic, who has done a lot of reporting on this planned transfer of ownership. You'll hear the word "transformative" thrown around, but there's no reason to expect a significant player payroll increase in the near future. White Sox fans have a new sense of hope about the future of the franchise, but for the 2025-26 offseason, we don't expect much of an Ishbia effect.
The 2025 White Sox were just normal bad, rather than historically bad. It was the team's third consecutive 100-loss season, with a 60-102 record. The White Sox ranked 14th in the AL with 3.99 runs scored per game. The starting rotation ranked 11th with a 4.39 ERA, while the bullpen checked in at 10th with a 4.16 mark. The defense seemed to be bottom-five in the league.
Despite that, positives are emerging. The White Sox have established a Kyle Teel-Edgar Quero job-share at catcher. Teel came up in June and posted 1.9 fWAR in 78 games, including a 125 wRC+ at the plate that ranked sixth among all catchers. Shortstop Colson Montgomery came up in July and slugged at a level well beyond anything he'd done at Triple-A: a 129 wRC+ with 21 home runs in just 284 plate appearances.
On the pitching side, GM Chris Getz snagged Shane Smith from the Brewers in the Rule 5 draft last winter, and he remarkably became the team's All-Star representative. The righty, 26 in April, faltered in the middle of the summer but posted a 3.09 ERA and 27.1 K% over his final ten starts.
First base was a bit of a black eye. The White Sox justifiably gave up on former third overall pick Andrew Vaughn, optioning him to Triple-A in May and sending him to the Brewers for pitcher Aaron Civale in mid-June. The Brewers brought Vaughn up a few weeks later and he put up a surprising and robust 142 wRC+ in 254 plate appearances, plus a couple of key home runs in the Division Series against the Cubs.
The White Sox never really settled on a first baseman after moving on from Vaughn, with guys like Tim Elko, Ryan Noda, and trade deadline pickup Curtis Mead getting looks. The majority of starts went to Miguel Vargas, who also played a bunch of third base. Vargas flashed signs of life in May and August, but overall his 101 wRC+ doesn't really play for a starter at an infield corner. So what can be done?
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MLB Mailbag: Reds, Bregman, Bichette, Polanco, Braves, deGrom
This week's mailbag gets into the Reds' offense, whether Alex Bregman, Bo Bichette, and Jorge Polanco will stay with their respective clubs, trade targets for the Braves' rotation, and whether the Rangers could trade Jacob deGrom.
Bill asks:
What can the Cincinnati Reds possibly do to fix the mess that is their lineup? They need at least one big bat and probably do not have the money to accomplish that.
The Reds' offense ranked eighth in the NL with 4.42 runs scored per game. Let's examine where the lineup stands after the Reds were eliminated by the Dodgers in the Wild Card round.
- C: Jose Trevino and Tyler Stephenson handled catching duties.
- 1B: Spencer Steer was the regular this year, but rookie Sal Stewart began taking starts after coming up in September.
- 2B: Matt McLain was the typical choice, with Gavin Lux starting occasionally.
- SS: Elly De La Cruz has the full-time job.
- 3B: Ke'Bryan Hayes took most starts, with a few going to Stewart. Before Hayes was acquired, Santiago Espinal logged innings here.
- LF: Austin Hays was the top choice, followed by Lux and Will Benson.
- CF: TJ Friedl has the full-time job.
- RF: Noelvi Marte took over the starting job. Jake Fraley spent time here before getting injured, and Benson was also in the mix.
- DH: Of late, it was a Lux/Miguel Andujar time share. Hays also picked up a good number of ABs here.
No one on the Reds had a stellar offensive season. Almost every regular fell between a 97 wRC+ and a 109 mark, with 100 being league average. Where can improvements be found?
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MLB Mailbag: Cubs, Mets, Guardians, Athletics
This week's mailbag gets into offseason possibilities for the Cubs and Mets and also includes questions on the Angels, Guardians, and A's.
Walter asks:
With the Cubs probably not getting serious on Tucker, how much money will the Cubs have to spend and what are the likely targets to hopefully build a champion next year? Starting pitching? Bullpen?
Colin asks:
How should the Cubs replace Kyle Tucker? It feels like keeping it internal with a combo of Seiya and Caissie and Alcantara in RF and the first two and Ballesteros at DH won't make up for Tucker's production. Curious if there are any good targets out there for them to pursue.
Kelly asks:
The Cubs have several players going into next season in their final year. What do you predict will happen with Boyd, Suzuki, Happ and Hoerner? I know some of it is predicated on Tucker, but which are the priorities in your opinion to extend or trade this off-season? Where do Ballesteros, Amaya, Cassie and Long factor into their decision?
Nick asks:
Tucker leaves, Caissie in right, and sign Bregman. Can the Cubs package Happ and Shaw together for a controllable starter? Anybody come to mind?
It seems odd to get into the Cubs' offseason as they host the Padres in the Wild Card Series, but I received many of these questions and I aim to please with this mailbag.
The Cubs will easily come in below the $241MM competitive balance tax this year, after going a little bit over in 2024. They were also under the CBT from 2021-23.
Regular season attendance was up 3.7% this year, plus at least a few playoff games are taking place at Wrigley Field. In theory, the Cubs could get into the range of the $244MM threshold, if president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer sees reasonable ways to spend that money. So what do the 2026 commitments look like?
- Dansby Swanson - $25.3MM
- Ian Happ - $20.3MM
- Seiya Suzuki - $17MM
- Jameson Taillon - $17MM
- Matthew Boyd - $14.5MM
- Nico Hoerner - $11.7MM
- Carson Kelly - $5.75MM
I'll also make a few option assumptions:
- Cubs will pick up Andrew Kittredge's $9MM club option
- Cubs will pick up Colin Rea's $6MM club option
- Cubs will pick up Shota Imanaga's three-year, $57MM club option. I'm not entirely sure on the CBT hit in this case, but $19MM should be close enough for our purposes.
There is a case to be made for declining Imanaga's three-year option, but we can get into that another time.
I dared to enter Matt Swartz's top-secret arbitration lab, in the basement of the MLB Trade Rumors building, to beg for some early numbers. But the Cubs' class is only Justin Steele, Javier Assad, Reese McGuire, and Eli Morgan. We can just worry about Steele and Assad, who have respective projections of $6.55MM and $1.9MM.
These 12 players, plus other stuff such as player benefits, brings the team's estimated CBT payroll to $176MM. If these estimates are generally correct, the Cubs will enter the 2026-27 offseason about $68MM shy of the $244MM CBT threshold. There's space to spend some serious money this winter!
Assessing potential Cubs targets will require a team breakdown!
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MLB Mailbag: Naylor, Eflin, Tucker, King, Realmuto
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This week's mailbag gets into the impending free agencies of Josh Naylor, Zach Eflin, Kyle Tucker, Michael King, and J.T. Realmuto, among other topics.
Stephen asks:
Josh Naylor in a mariners uniform next year would be wonderful. What would it take to make it happen?
This mailbag presents several opportunities to exercise my contract prediction muscles in advance of the MLBTR team collaborating on our Top 50 Free Agents list throughout October. So let's try to put a number on Naylor.
Naylor will be 29 next year, and not until June, so you get a good amount of age 28 as well. He's been even better in Seattle than Arizona, and this year's 126 wRC+ seems representative of his abilities for the next few years.
Somehow, Naylor has stolen 28 bags this year in 30 tries despite second percentile sprint speed. As I have said in this space, I love that as a fellow slow runner, but I don't think I'd bake it into his free agent valuation. Defensively, Naylor seems to rate as an acceptable first baseman. Overall, he's a guy you can pencil in for 2.5-3 WAR. He deserves intangible credit, too, in the clubhouse and with Mariners fans. The cherry on top: he's ineligible for a qualifying offer due to the July trade.
If you check out Darragh McDonald's podcast with Jerry Dipoto from earlier this month, they got into the difficulty of attracting free agents, particularly bats, to Seattle. Naylor, though, feels like he sees the ball well at T-Mobile Park, called it a "super cool stadium," and called the team's fans "awesome." In a park that suppresses offense by around 9%, Naylor is hitting .350/.398/.613 in 90 plate appearances since the trade. So if there is a free agent position player on whom the Mariners are going to line up for more than two years, which Dipoto has yet to do with the Ms, Naylor seems like the guy.
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MLB Mailbag: Cardinals, Orioles, Astros, Schwarber, Casas
This week's mailbag covers the trade value of Willson Contreras, Sonny Gray, and Nolan Arenado, the Orioles' need this winter, the Astros' infield logjam, Kyle Schwarber's Hall of Fame candidacy, and how the Red Sox might approach first base next year.
Sam asks:
Assuming Willson Contreras agrees to waive his NTC, what sort of return would the Cardinals receive? Same question for Sonny Gray too please. (Assuming that Arenado is not moved or that the Cardinals eat most of his contract in exchange for a PTBNL or similar from his limited list of teams)
Hugh asks:
Assuming Arenado and Gray waive NTCs, what are the chances Cardinals can move them? Would Arenado be a non-tender candidate?
It's difficult to just assume Contreras, Gray, or Arenado would waive their no-trade clauses, even for the sake or argument. That's because those players would basically never entertain saying, "OK, I consent to a trade to any of the other 29 teams. Go for it!" They'd do something like what Arenado did last winter: provide a list of approved teams, and/or tell the GM you'll take it on a case-by-case basis if a deal is close.
I think these questions are more to get at what kind of trade value each player has, so let's assess that.
Contreras, 34 next May, became a full-time first baseman for the Cardinals this year. Perhaps a new team would consider using him behind the plate here or there, especially if the automated ball-strike system is implemented, but we'll mostly consider him a first baseman/DH.
Contreras dealt with some minor injuries this year, but had avoided the IL until today. His season has ended due to a right shoulder strain. Contreras managed to post a solid 123 wRC+ in a career-high 563 plate appearances, good for 2.8 FanGraphs WAR in 135 games.
If we give Contreras some grace for having to adjust to his new defensive duties in April, it's worth noting that he had a 135 wRC+ since May. This is a potential top-20 hitter in the game with plenty of red on his Statcast page who can arguably hang with the likes of Rafael Devers and Bryce Harper. I don't think Contreras has that reputation, but that's what I see. As a cherry on top, his first base defense appears to be average or better.
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