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Needs Align For Rays, A’s In Honeywell Trade

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As you may have noticed during the 40-man roster hubbub, former top prospect Brent Honeywell Jr. was traded from the Rays to the Athletics in exchange for cash considerations. For the Rays, losing Honeywell was simply a roster crunch issue, as well as a desire to give him more opportunities, writes Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. “We wanted more than anything to give him an opportunity to go somewhere and get a chance to pitch on a regular basis,” said Kevin Ibach, Rays senior director of pro personnel and pro scouting, per Topkin.

Honeywell made his way back from multiple arm injuries to make his Major League debut in 2021, but his future is simply too uncertain for the Rays, who are looking to maximize their competitive window in a tightly-contested AL East. The A’s, on the contrary, are looking to scale back their payroll. Honeywell, therefore, fits the bill for them as a high-ceiling, high-risk arm who bring a touch of intrigue to the roster.

The 26-year-old is out of options, so he’ll need to make the team out of spring training to avoid being exposed to waivers. He’s likely to pitch a swing role out of the bullpen, though much depends on what how many players the A’s ultimately end up dealing this winter.

The Rays have been typically proactive in clearing 40-man roster space this winter, dealing away Mike Brosseau, Louis Head, and prospect Tobias Myers in addition to Honeywell and southpaw Ryan Sherriff, who was claimed off waivers, and Adam Conley, who elected free agency after being designated for assignment. The Rays are not coy about trading prospects like Honeywell and Myers, especially as a means of “paying it forward,” or acquiring younger prospects for players that need to be on the 40-man roster.

Quick Hits: Mets, A’s, Cubs

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The Mets current payroll already sits at about $185MM, but owner Steve Cohen would still rather add through free agency than deplete an already thin farm system by trading away prospects, per Deesha Thosar of the New York Daily News. Cohen’s comments were pretty telling as he introduced new GM Billy Eppler. Said Cohen, “We don’t really have a lot in our farm system to supplement what we need. It’s going to require spending. That’s what’s going to happen. I’ve let Billy know that I’m willing — for the right deals and right free agents — to go get the players we need. We want to be competitive.”

The Mets’ strategy appears to be to let walk the free agents who can net them draft picks (like Noah Syndergaard and Michael Conforto), while dipping back into free agency to replace their on-field production. That’s a sound team-building strategy, so long as the Mets are able to find the right free agents to round out the roster. From a forward-looking perspective, the added draft picks will certainly help in building a sustainable development engine, which should be the goal of every franchise. Elsewhere around the game…

  • The Athletics have made a move to purchase land in Las Vegas that could be home to a future stadium, per Matt Kawahara of the San Francisco Chronicle. The exact location hasn’t been revealed as the A’s continue on the “parallel paths” track for future planning, exploring their options in both Vegas and Oakland. As of now, this constitutes little more than another step in the A’s flirtation with Vegas. That said, it’s an important step. The A’s current stadium lease runs through 2024.
  • The Cubs struck quickly this winter to nab Wade Miley from the Reds. Miley joins Kyle Hendricks as the only two pitchers currently locked into starting spots for next season, per Russell Dorsey of the Chicago Sun-Times. That’s actually a better foundation than the Cubs have had in recent seasons, at least if you buy into Miley’s breakout last season. As for the rest of the rotation, it’s currently a four-man stable auditioning for three open rotation spots. Adbert Alzolay, Justin Steele, Keegan Thompson, and Alec Mills will all compete for bulk innings next season, even if one or more of that quartet ultimately gets bumped into full-time bullpen roles.

Offseason Outlook: Baltimore Orioles

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The Orioles lost 110 games in 2021, the third time in the past four seasons with a sub-.400 winning percentage. It’s been five seasons since the Orioles last made the postseason, and the odds are stacked against them in the AL East.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • None
  • 2022 commitments: $0MM
  • Total long-term commitments: $0MM

Projected Salaries For Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Option Decisions

  • None

Free Agents

Take a look at the guaranteed contracts section above and that’s about all you need to know about the state of the Baltimore Orioles. The good news is that they no longer have any onerous contracts on the books, but no amount of frugality will turn you into a rich man. At some point, the Orioles are going to need to start putting some long-term building blocks in place if they want to compete in the AL East.

The fact is, before the 2021 season even started, we pretty much knew what the two biggest stories of the year would be for these Orioles. Trey Mancini’s return was going to galvanize the fanbase and give the Baltimore faithful a real feel-good story to follow, and Adley Rutschman would continue his march towards the Major Leagues. Both narratives played about almost exactly as expected — and that’s not to diminish Mancini’s comeback, which was genuinely heartwarming, or Rutschman’s impressive march towards Camden Yards.

Mancini put on a show in the Home Run Derby and played in 147 games during the regular season. He hit .255/.326/.432 with 21 home runs in 616 plate appearances, good for just 0.8 rWAR overall. It was a good, albeit not great return to action for Mancini, who nevertheless gave fans in Baltimore something to cheer about.

Rutschman took another giant steps towards becoming the face of the franchise. He hit .271/.392/.508 in 80 games with Double-A Bowie before earning his promotion to Triple-A, where he slashed .312/.405/.490 across 185 plate appearances. If Rutschman isn’t in the Major Leagues in 2022, it’s because something went seriously wrong with the CBA negotiations and nobody is playing baseball. He’s ready.

Beyond those narratives, there was a third story that somewhat unexpectedly took over headlines in Baltimore this season: the emergence of Cedric Mullins. The 26-year-old broke out in a major way, posting MVP-caliber numbers, making his first All-Star game and earning his first Silver Slugger Award. He posted a 5.7 rWAR season while slashing .291/.360/.518, hitting 30 bombs and stealing 30 bases to be the Majors only 30-30 player. Those of us who remember Mullins from a dismal 22-game stint back in 2019 need to seriously re-calibrate expectations for Baltimore’s newest star.

The rest of the roster remains in serious flux, especially on the pitching side, where John Means continues to be their undisputed top starter. Means had a good year, logging 146 2/3 innings in 26 starts with a 3.62 ERA. At 28 years old, he may not seem like the ideal building block for the rotation, but he is still under team control for three more seasons, which is why the team hasn’t seriously explored trading Means up to this point.

Again, however, we must look to the minor leagues to see the most impactful developments for Baltimore. Grayson Rodriguez looks like an ace in the making, and like Rutschman, he’s nearing Major League readiness. Rodriguez made 18 starts in Double-A, logging 79 2/3 innings with a stellar 2.60 ERA/2.73 FIP. The towering 6’5″ right-hander is a significant talent, and he could be pitching in Baltimore by next summer.

Southpaw D.L. Hall could join him there soon. Hall was just added to the 40-man roster. He made just seven starts in Double-A but nevertheless posted a promising 3.33 ERA in those 31 2/3 innings. He also put up a 3.46 ERA/3.22 FIP over 80 2/3 innings in High-A. Nothing is a sure thing in the prospect world, but in Rodriguez and Hall, the O’s have a pretty strong pair of rotation arms that are pretty close to kicking Baltimore’s rebuild into high gear.

Given how close Baltimore’s highest profile prospects are to the Majors, it’s fair to wonder if this might be the winter when GM Mike Elias finally make a significant play for a free agent. They aren’t ready to compete, but they also might not be quite as far from the types of pre-contender free agency deals that we’ve seen for veterans like Jayson Werth and Manny Machado.

There’s certainly some room on the roster (and obviously on the payroll) to add a veteran or two. They’re fairly well stocked in the outfield where Mullins was flanked by Anthony Santander and Austin Hays. Whichever of Mancini and Ryan Mountcastle aren’t playing first base can also spend time in the grass, though they’re both better suited in a designated hitter role. Hays had a bit of a breakout 3.1 rWAR season, though Santander took a step back after a solid 2020. Santander and Hays are under team control for three and four more years respectively, so they are likely to continue to log a starter’s workload in the grass. That said, Mancini, Mountcastle, Santander, and Hays may be a perfect barbershop quartet, but the O’s could easily split up the timeshare for left, right, first, and DH more than four ways, should Elias find a free agent at the right price.

There’s room for another character in the outfield carousel, but if Elias is to inject some talent into this lineup, he’s most likely to do so in the infield. As of today, Jorge Mateo, Ramon Urias, and Kelvin Gutierrez rank as the incumbents next to Mountcastle in the infield. Mountcastle, at 24 and a longtime top prospect, probably has the longest leash of the four after slashing a palatable .255/.309/.487 with 33 home runs and 89 RBIs in 586 plate appearances. He has now been 16 percent better than average with the stick by measure of wRC+ in 726 career plate appearances in the Majors. That’s a promising chunk of action for Mountcastle, though the bar will be set high since he does not add much value with his glove.

Mateo, Urias, and Gutierrez are more place holders than long-term pieces. Mateo is the youngest, and he will turn 27 in June of next season. Urias as been the most productive of the bunch, as the 27-year-old has hit an impressive .286/.365/.425 in 323 plate appearances over two seasons since being claimed off waivers from the Cardinals.

Urias should feel secure in his roster spot, but his ability to move around the infield makes the right-handed hitter a pretty ideal fit as a fringe starter/utility type. That might be the ceiling for Mateo and Richie Martin, Urias’ theoretical backup at short, who hasn’t shown enough bat to stick it in the Majors (.214/.343/.348 in 134 plate appearance in the minors last year).

They can’t all be tenth men, however, which is where a free agent or two could make sense for Baltimore. Their prospect lists aren’t real deep in terms of infielders nearing the Majors, outside of Jahmai Jones, a former Angels’ prospect acquired last February for Alex Cobb. Jones hit alright in the minors this season (.251/.343/.445), but the numbers aren’t so flashy as to block the acquisition of a potential free agent. They recently added Lucius Fox from the Royals to join this pool of potential infielders.

Of course, this is all speculation, as Elias has yet to show a willingness to spend in free agency since taking over in November 2018. To his credit, there has been little reason to spend on a team destined for the AL East basement. Given that they are a near certainty to finish in the basement again in 2022, it may be a year or two early for Elias to open up the pocketbook.

Elias’ challenge, after all, is unique for a rebuilding given the incline of the uphill climb they face in their division. The Red Sox nearly made the World Series, the Blue Jays are just beginning an era of presumed prosperity, the Rays have a farm system that should keep them in contention for the next half decade, and the Yankees’ haven’t had a losing season since Derek Jeter’s draft year. In that climate, the Orioles aren’t likely to luck into a playoff spot.

Still, if Mullins’ breakout is real and Rutschman has the type of 2022 that dreams are made of, the Birds will have long-term answers at the two toughest positions to fill. The third position on that list – shortstop – happens to have a robust collection of talent available in free agency this season. I know, it’s not super likely that the Orioles will reel in Carlos Correa or Corey Seager, but they could be players at the tail end of that market, especially if the jobs dry up elsewhere and someone like Javier Baez begins to consider a short-term make-good kind of offer. Speculatively speaking, there’s also a potentially robust secondary market on the trade block, should they want to make a move for someone like Paul DeJong, a spiritual successor for J.J. Hardy whose contract should make him an easy get in terms of the talent return.

Elias could also look to the hot corner, though there aren’t as many appealing options after Kris Bryant and Chris Taylor. The same can be said for second base. At the very least, Baltimore could look to make the type of addition they’ve made in recent seasons, bringing in a veteran on a short-term deal in the mold of Freddy Galvis, keeping one eye on flipping them at the deadline. Jose Iglesias, Cesar Hernandez, Josh Harrison, Leury Garcia, Jonathan Villar, Matt Duffy, or Marwin Gonzalez might merit consideration for that kind of deal. Former Mariner Shed Long is a textbook target as a former top prospect who is still relatively young at 26 years old.

Galvis’ one-year, $1.5MM deal was the only Major League contract Elias handed out last offseason, and until we see otherwise, that’s probably the level of dealing that we can expect from Elias.

There’s even less likely to be a splashy free agent pitcher making his new home in Baltimore, though the O’s ought to at least explore the middle of the market. One of Elias’ trademarks in recent seasons has been acquiring enough low-cost, quad-A-type arms to keep their farmhands fresh. He hasn’t wanted to rush any of their pitching prospects through the system, and that means having enough talent on hand to survive a full 162-game season.

Players like Bruce Zimmermann, Zac Lowther, Dean Kremer, and Keegan Akin give the Orioles options for the rotation, but only Means has a rotation spot on lockdown. The others not only could be bumped from the rotation, but they have options remaining as well. Paul Fry, Dillon Tate, Rule 5 pick Tyler Wells, southpaw Tanner Scott and breakout righty Cole Sulser did enough to earn bullpen seats next year, but there’s definitely room for an addition or two beyond that group.

Frankly, Elias has already been relatively busy this winter. He allowed Hunter Harvey to be claimed off waivers while re-signing Marcos Diplan and Spenser Watkins on minor league deals. Elias and manager Brandon Hyde also brought in a pair of hitting coaches to bring some new voices into the clubhouse.

The Orioles aren’t breaking any doors down yet to get out of the AL East basement, but there is intrigue at the top of Baltimore’s roster for the first time in years. Rutschman is the type of two-way talent that can change the course of a franchise, but when he arrives, the ticking clock starts, too.

Check out the rest of MLBTR’s Offseason Outlook series here.

Tigers, Rangers Showing Interest In Marcus Semien

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Many people inside and outside the industry have long predicted the Tigers as the eventual landing spot for top free agent shortstop Carlos Correa. The calculus to get him there is relatively straightforward. The Tigers have the clearest need in the league at shortstop. They are an up-and-coming team with a relatively clear financial ledger. There’s a clear interpersonal link with manager A.J. Hinch having managed Correa in Houston.

Everything adds up – except that the Tigers aren’t planning on putting all their free agent dollars in a single basket, making Javier Baez or Marcus Semien more likely targets for Detroit, per Jon Heyman of the MLB Network, (via Twitter). The Tigers already made a significant financial investment to Eduardo Rodriguez, so there’s certainly some logic to Detroit targeting the mid-tier free agent shortstops.

The Rangers are also showing interest in Semien, per Jon Morosi of MLB Network (via Twitter). If the Rangers can add a top shortstop, Isiah Kiner-Falefa could move back to third base, where he previously won a gold glove award. Texas has also shown interest in Corey Seager and Trevor Story. Texas is reportedly willing to spend upwards of $200MM for the right guy, per Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News.

Semien, at 31, is presumably looking for a shorter-term deal that Correa, who can reasonably expect a deal in the $200-300MM range. Semien’s deal, while significant, will presumably fall far short of that range, even after a 7.3 rWAR season. MLBTR predicted Correa to get more than double Semien in terms of raw dollars ($320MM over ten for Correa, $138MM over six for Semien).

The Blue Jays, of course, continue to have interest in a reunion with Semien, though their needs are flexible enough that a bidding war could push them in a different direction. Like the Tigers, the Jays have already spent significant money this winter in the form of a reasonable extension for Jose Berrios.

Aaron Judge Hopes To Finish Career With Yankees

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Aaron Judge does not offer any two-headed equivocations when asked about his desire to remain with the Yankees long-term. Per MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch, Judge was pretty clear about his intentions, saying, “That would be a wish of mine, a goal of mine, to finish my career as a Yankee. If it was up to me, I would be a Yankee for the next 10 years, for sure.”

Of course, we’ve heard this sort of thing from players before. We’re not six months removed from Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, and Javier Baez offering similar pull quotes about their time with the Cubs, and they’ve all now played home games outside of the Lakeview neighborhood of Chicago. As we learned from those Cubbies, the decision to stay in one uniform long-term isn’t strictly up to the player.

Granted, there’s no reason to think the Yankees would be in a position to deal Judge the way the Cubs sloughed off their stars, but he could be heading into his final season in the Bronx regardless. Judge will enter free agency after the 2022 season. And while the Yankees do not have any financial issues that should seriously threaten their ability to keep Judge, they do have a couple of hefty contracts on the books.

Gerrit Cole and Giancarlo Stanton have guaranteed contract for at least five years apiece beyond 2022, and if the winter plays out as expected, there may be another $100MM-to-$200MM deal on the books by the time spring training begins. It is largely assumed that, now that they’ve finally moved Gleyber Torres to the keystone, the Yankees will come away with one of the the winter’s top free agent shortstops,

Theoretically, reaching a long-term accord with the Yankees should be easy, though we know that’s hardly ever the case. The Yankees haven’t stayed successful by giving money away to every player that likes the cut of their jib in pinstripes.

Of course, Judge is a star by just about any measure. The 6’7″ outfielder has posted no worse than a 140 wRC+ in any season of the last five, including a 148 wRC+ mark last season. Sure, he has yet to replicate his 52 home run, 174 wRC+, 8.3 fWAR Rookie of the Year campaign that put him on the map in 2017, but in the four seasons since that breakout, Judge ranks 19th among all batters in total fWAR and tied for sixth by measure of wRC+.

Judge is also an underrated defender, an unequivocal plus in right field as well as a bit of an optical illusion because of his size. He racked up 11 defensive runs saved as a right fielder in 2021 while proving himself capable of manning the middle in a pinch. Judge played 158 innings in center, though with a mark of -2 defensive runs saved and -0.8 UZR.

The other drawback to a long-term deal for Judge is that the California native will turn 31 in April of the first year of any new deal that he signs. Judge has been durable in that he’s been a significant contributor in every season of his career. On the flip side, 2021 was just the second time Judge appeared in at least 70% of New York’s regular season games. There is risk, therefore, in signing Judge to a long-term pact, though if Judge is as enthusiastic as he seems, that calculation will certainly be part of GM Brian Cashman’s winter planning.

Padres Notes: Clevinger, Lamet, Pham

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The Padres are planning to have a healthy Mike Clevinger ready for Spring Training, per MLB.com’s Shaun O’Neill. The 30-year-old made just four starts in the regular season after being acquired from the Guardians midway through the 2020 season. Clevinger underwent his second Tommy John surgery, missing the entirety of the 2021 season. Clevinger’s absence was one reason President of Baseball Ops A.J. Preller went out and acquired Joe Musgrove, Blake Snell, and Yu Darvish last winter, though even those additions ended up being insufficient as injuries took their toll on the Friars.

Dinelson Lamet’s inability to stay on the hill certainly played a part, as the right-hander could not stay healthy enough to hold a rotation spot. He came off the injured list on April 21st, but made just one appearance before landing back on the shelf. He later missed another 66 days with forearm inflammation. He ended up moving to the bullpen, making 11 appearances in relief and finished with a 4.40 ERA/3.94 FIP across 47 innings. Lamet’s role in 2022 will be undecided until the spring, notes O’Neill.

They’re open to re-signing Tommy Pham, per Preller, but it’s going to be a numbers game now. The 33-year-old put up 1.4 rWAR in 561 plate appearances, leaving room for an upgrade, should the Padres find the right player. Pham’s contributions were suitable, though a .229/.340/.383 at the plate leaves much to be desired.

The Padres have some flexibility in the outfielder corners, where Will Myers, Jurickson Profar, and Adam Frazier could all see time next season. Ideally, however, only one of those three lines up at an opening day starter. There are plenty of corner outfielders available in free agency, however, so the Padres don’t have to rush a decision on Pham. Eddie Rosario, Jorge Soler, Joc Pederson, Kyle Schwarber, Nick Castellanos, Starling Marte, Seiya Suzuki, and Avisail Garcia are just some of the corner outfielders available, as well as more versatile options like Kris Bryant and Chris Taylor.

Rockies Re-Sign Jhoulys Chacin

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Right-hander Jhoulys Chacin has agreed on a one-year deal to return to the Rockies, as per Danielle Allentuck of the Denver Gazette (via Twitter). The team has announced the signing. Chacin’s deal is worth $1.25MM, per Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (via Twitter).

Chacin, 34 in January, had his best years in purple from 2009 to 2014. He returned to Colorado last season, making 46 appearances, mostly out of the bullpen. Though it was a different role than the last time Chacin pitched for the Rockies, he put together his best season since 2018 nevertheless, logging 64 1/3 innings with a 4.34 ERA/4.63 FIP.

Chacin’s best season overall came in that 2018 season when he made 35 starts for a playoff-bound Brewers’ squad that won 96 games and the NL Central crown. Chacin won a career-high 15 games with a 3.50 ERA/4.03 FIP in 192 2/3 innings. He kept it up in the postseason, making three starts and giving up just two earned runs over 12 1/3 innings, which included a game two victory over the Rockies in the NLDS.

Though Chacin has more career playoff innings against the Rockies than for them, they have nonetheless shared a productive partnership over the years. Chacin figures to remain in the bullpen as a multi-inning option in 2022. Overall, Chacin owns a 4.06 ERA/4.08 FIP in 1,388 1/3 innings across 13 seasons with the Rockies, Brewers, Braves, Diamondbacks, Angels, Padres, and Red Sox. He surpassed 10 years of service time last season.

GM Ross Atkins On Blue Jays’ Winter Goals

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The Blue Jays would love to add an infielder to complement their current mix of young gloves in the dirt, but it’s not a necessity, says GM Ross Atkins, per Scott Mitchell of TSN. That includes, of course, a potential reunion with Marcus Semien, though having a versatile defensive player like Cavan Biggio on the roster gives Atkins some flexibility. Filling Semien’s spot at the keystone is the natural place to add an infielder, but Biggio could slide to second, opening the hot corner for a bigger fish like Matt Chapman of the A’s, whom Mitchell speculates could be a target.

Of course, injuries limited the 26-year-old Biggio to just 79 games last season and a .224/.322/.356 batting line, so an argument could be made to look for an upgrade at third base regardless of what happens at second. Wherever they make additions, for the second consecutive winter, the Blue Jays are no doubt buyers in this free agent market. If not another infielder, Toronto will surely explore rotation and bullpen upgrades, notes Mitchell.

Specifically, Atkins did not rule out getting a more established closer that might bump Jordan Romano from the role that he stepped into last season. Romano notched 23 games for the Jays last season, but he also picked up a handful of holds while only recording a single blown save. Steady as he was, there is no such thing as too many high leverage arms.

Cardinals Want To Bring Back Luis Garcia, Add Rotation Arm

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The Cardinals are working to re-sign late-inning reliever Luis Garcia after the hard-throwing righty’s breakout season in St. Louis, per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Even if the Cardinals do bring back Garcia, they will still target at least one additional potential high leverage reliever. Alex Reyes handled much of the high leverage workload last year, but they’d like to give Reyes an opportunity to claim a rotation spot.

As for Garcia, he has long struggled with his command, but he held it together for a career-low 5.9 percent walk rate in his 34 appearances with the Cardinals last season. That kind of control with a sinking fastball averaging more than 98 mph is a killer combination that helped Garcia notch a 25.2 percent strikeout rate and 3.24 ERA/2.72 FIP in 33 1/3 innings. His innings weren’t cheap ones either, as Garcia managed to save a pair of games and preserve leads enough to earn 12 holds.

Along with Garcia and another late inning arm, Goold also mentions sinkerballing starters like Steven Matz or Alex Cobb as a potential target for the Cardinals. Both are coming off relatively strong seasons and would likely benefit from pitching in front of the Gold Glove laden infield in St. Louis. The Cardinals have starting options with Dakota Hudson coming back from Tommy John and Reyes potentially moving into the rotation, but with deadline acquisitions Jon Lester and J.A. Happ now free agents, there are a fair number of innings to go around.

Offseason Outlook: Atlanta Braves

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In their fourth consecutive season at the top of the National League East, the Braves finally put away their postseason demons to win the World Series. If it weren’t for the ring, however, this would be the most uncertain offseason the Braves have faced in some time. This year’s team had the lowest winning percentage of any of their four East title squads, and it’s hard not to suggest that these Braves benefited from a weak division in 2021. They capitalized, they partied, and they paraded, but now it’s time to pack up the balloons and streamers and look ahead to some difficult offseason decisions.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Charlie Morton, SP: $20MM in 2022 (includes $20MM club option for 2023 with no buyout)
  • Marcell Ozuna OF: $53MM through 2024 (includes $1MM buyout on $16MM club option for 2025)
  • Will Smith, RP: $14MM in 2022 (includes $1MM buyout on $13MM club option for 2023)
  • Ronald Acuna Jr., OF: $93MM through 2026 (includes $10MM buyout on $17MM club option for 2027, team also holds a $17MM option for 2028)
  • Travis d’Arnaud, C: $16MM through 2023 (includes $8MM club option for 2024 with no buyout)
  • Ozzie Albies, 2B: $26MM through 2025 (includes $4MM buyout on $7MM club option in 2026, team also holds $7MM club option for 2027)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Option Decisions

  • Joc Pederson, OF: $10MM mutual option for 2022 (player declined in favor of a $2.5MM buyout)
  • Adam Duvall, OF: $7MM mutual option for 2022 (player declined in favor of a $3MM buyout, remains arbitration-eligible)
  • Josh Tomlin, RP: $1.25MM team option for 2022 (declined for a $250K buyout)

Free Agents

The Braves are the champions of the 2021 Major League Baseball season. Bully for you, Atlanta.  Given that fact, their offseason outlook is pretty good. Frankly, whatever happens over the next six months won’t really matter to the Braves. They’re the champs, and that’s the ultimate winter gavel drop.

The one thing that could slow the effervescent feel-goodery of their championship run is the pending contract negotiation with longtime face-of-the-franchise Freddie Freeman. If by some odd twist of fate Freeman does not sign a long-term deal to stay with the Braves, that’s when the lights turn on, the music stops, and everyone goes home.

The 2022 season is already shaping up to be a weird one: the Giants will be without Buster Posey, the Nationals will probably be without Ryan Zimmerman, Bryzzo no longer exists except in the memory of Cubs’ fans, a fanbase other than Houston is likely going to embrace Carlos Correa, and the agreement between the owners and Players’ Union that defines the conditions of the 2022 season…well…there is no agreement. Point being, there’s only so much change a sport can take in a single winter, so let’s assume for the sake of sanity that Freeman will remain with the only organization he has ever known. If north ends up being south and pigs fly, we can cross that bridge then.

After all, from a baseball perspective, there’s little reason not to bring back Freeman. He’s one year removed from an MVP season and coming off a .300/.393/.503 campaign, in which he led the NL with 120 runs. He’s been one of the most consistent players in baseball, both from a character and production standpoint. He’s posted 4.0 rWAR or better in each of the last six seasons (except for 2020, when he put up 3.2 rWAR in 60 games). He’s been the heartbeat of the club for years, and he shows no signs of slowing down.

Yes, he plays first base, and that means he’s not a particularly versatile asset. His next contract will take him into his late thirties, and it’s going to be costly. But so long as they have Acuna and Albies locked into ridiculously team-friendly deals, and so long as their largest contract belongs to Charlie Morton on a minimal-risk, short-term contract, these Braves should have the money to overpay a little to keep “new Chipper” in his locker spot.

From a narrative perspective, the engines stalled during the postseason while Joe Buck and John Smoltz repeatedly tried to breathe life into the story of Soler, Rosario, Duvall, and Pederson being brought to Atlanta at the deadline. For sure, give President of Baseball Operations Alex Anthopoulos all the credit he deserves. He absolutely raised the floor for what had been an under-performing Atlanta team, and he hit pay dirt when each of the four showed up huge in the postseason. It’s pretty remarkable, in fact, that each of those four guys was able to make a distinct imprint on this postseason.

And yet, there’s a world in which none of them return to Atlanta for 2022. Soler and Rosario were the NLCS and World Series MVPs, respectively, but they are both straight-up free agents – free to sign wherever they please. For both of those guys, they could be in for an extended stay at reception unless the Braves want to honor their contribution with a hero’s offer.

On the other hand, it’s easy to see either one of these guys returning to Atlanta. When guys become postseason starts like Rosario and Soler, they instantly become more valuable to their incumbent franchise than they are anywhere else. For the players, they certainly should have positive associations from their time in Atlanta, and their popularity meters will be less sensitive in Atlanta than with a fresh fanbase. And yet, Soler and Rosario are corner outfielders at best, and most teams may want to see what happens with the CBA before signing a potential designated hitter.

While Soler and Rosario are the decorated heroes of this outfield foursome, Pederson and Duvall have been the active pair thus far. Pederson declined his $10MM mutual option, choosing instead to take a $2.5MM buyout and head to free agency. The move makes sense for both sides, as Pederson will want to find a situation with more guaranteed playing time. Coming off a 94 wRC+ season that saw him post just 0.6 fWAR between the Cubs and Braves, the Braves weren’t likely to exercise their half of the option if the decision had made it that far.

The Duvall decision is a touch more complex. Their postseason centerfielder declined his half of a $7MM mutual option, pocketing the $3MM buyout. But he remains under team control through arbitration. Duvall has been a 109 wRC+ hitter over the past three seasons, mostly with Atlanta, and he’s coming off probably his best year, posting 2.4 fWAR between the Marlins and Braves. Besides, unlocking at least a passing ability to play centerfield makes Duvall all the more valuable. He’s a flawed player because of subpar on-base skills, but he can also carry a team when he’s hot. Still, the Braves have designated him for assignment in the past when the financials were similar, and if they learned anything this past season, it’s that outfielders can be had at the deadline for cheap. If they keep him, MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projects a salary in the $9.1MM range.

Not to mention, the Braves outfield quandary goes deeper than those four. With Acuna coming back, they’re already overcrowded (even if Acuna isn’t ready by opening day). Plus, with Marcell Ozuna’s contract hanging over this team, there’s a lot more uncertainty heading into next season. As of now, there’s no telling if Ozuna will play again or if the Braves would have any recourse to getting out of his contract, should they want to.

They also have heralded prospects Cristian Pache and Drew Waters to work into the equation. Pache already has a Major League glove, and he should have a roster spot on the 2022 Braves. Even if he’s not strictly an everyday regular, if he’s on the roster, he’s likely to get a lot of the playing time.

The shape and depth of the Braves ’22 outfield is unclear, but the truth is, it’s a largely cosmetic problem. There are plenty of options available to Anthopoulos, and it’s more a question of sentimentality and narrative than it is efficacy. The bones of a solid outfield are already there, especially if they choose to bring back Duvall, and even if none of Soler, Duvall, Rosario and Pederson return, there ought to be plenty of low-cost alternatives available to bring aboard.

The rest of the offense is fairly well set. Swanson has one more year of arbitration at short, Albies is locked in long-term at second, Riley established himself at the hot corner, and d’Arnaud signed a two-year extension to return as the starting backstop. One wayward thought: given the shortstops that are available this winter, the Braves could be bold and look now for a long-term replacement for Swanson at short, but that’s probably a little too cute for Anthopoulos. Swanson is Georgia born, he has great hair, solid memes, and the former number one overall pick has been a steady if unspectacular presence on both sides of the ball. Entering his age-28 season, there may yet be a career year lurking as well.

Behind those starters, William Contreras shows promise and can serve as the backup behind the plate. If they want to give him more regular playing time in Triple-A, Chadwick Tromp was picked up from the Giants and 24-year-old Shea Langeliers isn’t far from elbowing his way into the room. If retained, Johan Camargo and Orlando Arcia can backup most spots around the diamond, though either one could be a non-tender candidate given their light outputs at the dish. Travis Demeritte was added to the 40-man roster to compete for a backup role as well. There’s a spot to fill on the bench, but it largely depends on whether or not they retain any of the “trade deadline four.”

For the rest of the roster, they’re actually in a much better place than you might assume for a team coming off its fourth consecutive division title. Because despite their longstanding success, there’s definitely an up-and-coming quality to this roster, especially on the pitching side. Morton, Ian Anderson, and Max Fried make for a stellar top of the rotation, and there’s some serious upside to untap if Mike Soroka can return healthy and either Huascar Ynoa, Kyle Wright, Kyle Muller, or Touki Toussaint can establish themselves in the bigs. Of course, we’ve been saying this of Atlanta’s rotation for years. They’ve also managed to keep it together for years.

They may look to add another Drew Smyly type, a back-end rotation piece who gave them 126 2/3 innings of 4.48 ERA/5.11 FIP baseball during the regular season. Those innings are no joke, and Atlanta will have to fill them again next year. Smyly was little better than replacement level, so they should have no trouble replacing him.

The bullpen remains mostly intact as well, with the southpaw triumvirate of Will Smith, Tyler Matzek, and A.J. Minter returning. Richard Rodriguez, Luke Jackson, and Jacob Webb make up a solid trio of righties as well. There’s certainly room for an addition here or there, but it’s more likely the Braves will tinker around the edges of the roster

All in all, it’s likely to be a relatively quiet winter for the champs outside of a potential Freeman extension. With arbitration projections, their projected payroll is right around the $140MM mark they carried in 2021. Of course, that’s without a new contract for Freeman, but winning the World Series ought to help make the extra room in the payroll to keep the player who waited the longest in Atlanta to win.

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