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Quick Hits: Martín Pérez, Coliseum

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There was some heavy lifting done in the baseball world yesterday: it was arbitration filing day, as well as the opening of the international signing period. Today is a recovery day. Here’s the latest…

  • Before agreeing to terms with the Red Sox, southpaw Martín Pérez had no shortage of suitors. The Astros, Padres, Royals, White Sox, and Rays all showed interest in Pérez, per Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com (via Twitter). The Padres and White Sox have generally set their sights a touch higher than Pérez, but there’s clearly some trust around the league in Perez’s ability to contribute to a playoff-caliber pitching staff.
  • The Oakland A’s have long faced questions about their ability to stay in Oakland because of stadium concerns. The Coliseum sits on land with split ownership between the A’s and the city of Oakland. The organization continues to look for a site to build a new stadium, but the city of Oakland has also received a number of offers for their portion of the Coliseum land. One of those offers comes from former Oakland pitcher Dave Stewart, per Susan Slusser and Matt Kawahara of the San Francisco Chronicle. Stewart, an Oakland native, submitted a $115MM bid with plans to revitalize the area, whether or not the A’s continue to play there. The city of Oakland is reviewing all offers.

West Notes: Rockies, Freeland, Angels, Suzuki, Ohtani

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Denver native Kyle Freeland was a revelation for the Rockies in his sophomore season, posting a 2.85 ERA/3.67 FIP over 202 1/3 innings. Two years later, however, and the Rockies have yet to discuss an extension with their homegrown star, writes the Athletic’s Nick Groke. Freeland’s 2018 was an almost as a magical affair, so starved is the Rockies franchise for a cornerstone rotation piece. The bubble burst in 2019, of course, as his run prevention numbers ballooned to a 6.73 ERA/5.99 FIP. He found a middle ground over 70 2/3 innings in 2020, logging a 4.33 ERA/4.65 FIP with a 15.1 percent strikeout rate, 7.6 percent walk rate, and 51.5 percent groundball rate. Freeland agreed to a $5.025MM deal for 2021 on Friday, and he has two more seasons of arbitration before reaching free agency. Given the range of outcomes Freeland has already seen across four seasons, he’s likely to go year-to-year until reaching free agency after 2023. Let’s stay out west and check in with the Angels…

  • Kurt Suzuki had offers for more money, but he signed with the Angels for $1.5MM, per the Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya (via Twitter). Suzuki was with the Braves when Angels’ GM Perry Minasian was an executive there, which certainly could have helped smooth negotiations. But Suzuki’s ties to California don’t end there. Had Suzuki any reservations, he surely could have reached out to Anthony Rendon, who bonded with Suzuki’s son while the two were teammates in Washington, writes Robert Collias of The Maui News. Not to mention, Suzuki’s a native of Hawaii, he won a College World Series playing for Cal State Fullerton, and he began his career playing in the bay for the A’s. At 37-years-old, Suzuki’s not going to be a 130-start catcher, and injuries have hampered his ability to control the run game, but he’s been an above-average bat by measure of wRC+ in each of the last four seasons. Not to mention, having been the trusted receiver of Max Scherzer and Anibal Sanchez the past two seasons, Suzuki no doubt has plenty of sage advice to impart to the Angels’ less experiences backstops about how to manage a ballgame.
  • The Angels came to terms with five of their six arbitration-eligible players before yesterday’s filing deadline, but they’re heading to a hearing with star two-way player Shohei Ohtani. As if arbitration hearings aren’t complicated enough, Ohtani’s two-way abilities coupled with his injury history make him a particularly thorny case. Ohtani requested a $3.3MM salary, while the Angels countered at $2.5MM, per Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register. New GM Perry Minasian says the Angels will be a “file-and-go” team, also known as “file-and-trial,” meaning they don’t plan to continue negotiations after the filing deadline. Of course, even teams with this philosophy occasionally reach an agreement between the filing date and hearing.

Latest On Red Sox’ Free Agent Targets

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The Red Sox hope Jeter Downs can be the guy to take over second base in the future, but the 22-year-old is likely to begin 2021 in Triple-A. He had just 12 games under his belt at the Double-A level before coronavirus canceled the 2020 season. In the meantime, Yairo Munoz and Christian Arroyo both could earn time at the keystone, but the Red Sox want that pair to earn their opportunities. Otherwise, Michael Chavis looks like the incumbent, despite being a natural corner infielder.

Hence, they’ve keyed in on second baseman in free agency, exploring deals with Enrique Hernandez, Kolten Wong, Cesar Hernandez, and Dee Strange-Gordon, though no deal appears imminent.  Marwin Gonzalez could be an appealing option because of his versatility, per Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com (Twitter links). Gonzalez has a history with Red Sox manager Alex Cora from their days in Houston, though that’s not a time period either side likely wants to highlight. Outside of Xander Bogaerts and Rafael Devers, however, the rest of the Boston infield is still auditioning for full-time reps, so they may prefer to add a versatile glove that can function in a number of potential roster iterations.

Elsewise, Boston continues to look for arms to add to the rotation mix. Garrett Richards and Matt Moore are two names they’ve looked into recently, per Cotillo. Richards will make sense on a lot of teams now that he appears fully recovered from Tommy John surgery. He posted a 4.03 ERA/4.28 FIP in 51 1/3 innings for the Padres in 2020, with 10 starts, a 21.6 percent strikeout rate, 8.0 percent walk rate, and 40.1 percent groundball rate.

Moore would be a more surprising candidate, having registered just 10 innings since 2019. The 31-year-old southpaw played in Japan last season, logging a 2.65 ERA across 85 innings.

Of course, Boston’s Chief Baseball Officer Chaim Bloom goes way back with Moore. Their careers mirrored each other in many ways as both worked their way through the Rays’ organization. Bloom was just into the beginning of his career in the Rays’ front office when Tampa drafted Moore in the 2007 draft. Bloom was then the Assistant Director of Minor League Operations as Moore made his way through the organization. In 2011, Moore made his big league debut while Bloom was promoted to Director of Baseball Operations.

Nationals, Josh Bell Avoid Arbitration

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The Nationals and newly-acquired first baseman Josh Bell avoided arbitration today, coming to an agreement on a one-year, $6.3MM contract, per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (via Twitter). Bell made $4.8MM in 2020, his first season of arbitration eligibility. The Scott Boras client will be a free agent following the 2022 season.

Our initial projections had Bell set to make between $5.1MM and  $7.2MM through arbitration, so the Nationals might have earned themselves a little extra spending money by coming to an early accord. Regardless, Bell expects to have a better year in 2021 after a relatively rough campaign in the truncated 2020 season.

Even after slashing .226/.305/.364 in 223 plate appearances this year, Bell still owns a career line of .261/.349/.466. A strikeout rate of 26.5 percent was particularly high compared to his career average of 19.0 percent. Assuming a regression to his career means, Bell should provide the Nats with efficient production in 2021 given his salary. Besides, with Juan Soto and Kyle Schwarber figuring to hit somewhere close and perhaps on either side of Bell in Washington’s lineup, Bell should benefit from the ambient potency.

Soto and Trea Turner represent the Nationals only remaining arbitration cases.

Dodgers, Cody Bellinger Avoid Arbitration

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The Dodgers and Cody Bellinger agreed to a one-year, $16.1MM contract ahead of today’s arbitration deadline, per MLB Insider Jon Heyman (via Twitter). Bellinger made $11.5MM last season, a record amount for a player in his first year of arbitration eligibility. Bellinger is represented by Scott Boras. As a Super-Two player, Bellinger has two more years of arbitration eligibility remaining before his potential free agency following the 2023 season.

Bellinger’s record salary last season came on the heels of a National League MVP season in which he produced a .305/.406/.629 slash line and 7.1 bWAR. While his Dodgers got over the hump to win the World Series this season, Bellinger posted a mere mortal .239/.333/.455 line at the plate during the regular season. Despite seeing a year-over-year drop from 162 wRC+ to 114 wRC+ this season, the Dodgers saw fit to reward Bellinger with a sizable raise regardless. MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projected Bellinger would have received an arbitration award somewhere between $11.5MM and $15.9MM. The model based on 2020’s numbers alone was definitely too conservative, as he was going to get a raise of some sort, but it’s still interesting to see the Dodgers agree to a number beyond even our highest projection.

While Bellinger’s offensive numbers may have been down, he remained as central as ever to the Dodgers’ efforts. The 25-year-old led all of baseball with eight outs above average while manning centerfield for the Dodgers, which the Dodgers certainly could include in their valuation of Bellinger, even if arbitration panels don’t typically overly weigh defensive metrics such as OAA.

Dodgers To Sign Enny Romero To Minor League Deal

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The Dodgers will sign southpaw Enny Romero to a minor league deal with an invitation to spring training, per Hector Gómez of Z101 Sports (via Twitter).

Romero hasn’t appeared in the Majors since 2018, though he appeared in 137 games and logged 146 innings from 2013 to 2018. He will be 30-years-old at the start of the 2021 season, with an outside shot at seeing time with the World Champions. With pitcher workloads down across the sport in 2020, this season may require teams to lean on unprecedented depth, giving a comeback arm like Romero a greater chance than usual to carve out a role.

Signed by the Rays out of the Dominican Republic, Romero first appeared in the Majors with Tampa in 2013. With the Rays, Nationals, Pirates, and Royals, Romero owns a 5.12 ERA/4.30 FIP with a 23.4 percent strikeout rate, 11.1 percent walk rate, and 40.5 groundball rate for his career. In his heyday, Romero flashed a plus heater with good spin that could reach triple-digits and consistently miss bats, though his velocity dropped to an average of 95 mph the last time he took the hill in 2018.

Season Notes: Pandemic, Rules, Rays, Attendance

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Teams have their hands full today with the opening of the international signing period, as well as the now-passed deadline for arbitration agreements. While we sift through those financials, here’s the latest on how the pandemic continues to affect the sport…

  • MLB hopes to bring back seven-inning doubleheaders and the runner-on-second-base extra-inning rule, writes USA Today’s Bob Nightengale. The league is advocating for a continuation of these rules specifically for fear of the coronavirus continuing to affect the schedule. The league also seems to be in favor of keeping the universal DH and expanded playoffs, though those issues are still being discussed. No rule changes are made official, of course, until the league comes to an agreement with the MLBPA. The debate around expanded playoffs seems particularly challenging right now, as a greater playoff field, in some minds, actually de-incentivizes teams from spending in free agency since they have a greater margin for error. Reduced spending on free agents is a hot button issue right now, and it’s going to be the lens through which the players view many of the topics under discussion for 2021. Nightengale notes that there’s at least a chance that MLB ends up with the same rules in 2021 as in 2020, with the exception of roster sizes dropping back down from 29 to 26.
  • The Rays are planning to allow roughly 7,000 fans per game in 2021, socially distanced and wearing masks, of course, writes Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Of course, much can change between now and April, but the hope is that greater vaccine rollouts can mitigate the number of breakouts around the country. The Rays plan to re-open part of their upper deck seating to help keep fans appropriately distanced. The Rays are prepping best they can to allow fans in for games, but it will still come down to getting approval from MLB and government authorities. The Rays hope to have more information about ticketing ready before the end of February.

Notable International Signings: 1/15/21

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The 2020-21 international signing period is officially underway, and though this signing period is open until Dec. 15, 2021, many of the big names have already signed. Teams have long since lined up deals with newly eligible teenage players, so the news today largely represents confirmation of what was anticipated. Still, it’s a day of no small moment, particularly for the young men embarking upon professional careers.

Let’s round up some of the most notable signings of the day. Most of these agreements have been known for awhile, as both Baseball America’s Ben Badler (signings tracker; scouting links) and MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez (Twitter feed; rankings) have listed each club’s expected landing spot and approximate signing bonus on their rankings for months. You can find each team’s total bonus pool and other information on the process right here. Check the above links for further information and other signings. Despite today’s announcements, many of these deals won’t become official for even a couple of weeks, notes Sanchez. Here are a few key deals:

  • Yoelqui Céspedes, OF, White Sox: The half-brother of outfielder Yoenis Céspedes, the Cuban outfielder joins a strong international tradition in Chicago with the White Sox, who currently field Cuban stars such as reigning AL MVP Jose Abreu, centerfielder Luis Robert, and third baseman Yoan Moncada. MLB.com has Céspedes ranked as the top international prospect in this class thanks to being a “a five-tool player with above-average tools across the board.” Baseball America is slightly less bullish, putting him at No. 12 on their board, noting that the pandemic limited opportunities for scouting. The 23-year-old will be one of the older prospects from this class to sign, and though he has the ability to play center, Robert’s presence in Chicago means he is probably ticketed for right. The White Sox also signed Cuban hurler Norge Vera for $1.5MM. Vera came in at No. 15 on MLB.com’s rankings. Fangraphs has Cespedes as Chicago’s new No. 25 ranked prospect, and Vera at No. 14.
  • Armando Cruz, SS, Nationals: Cruz officially joined the Nationals today for the most money the Nationals have ever paid out to single player during the international signing period, with The Athletic’s Britt Ghiroli (via Twitter) pegging the final number at $3.9MM. BA writes in their scouting report, “He’s a defensive wizard with phenomenal hands and a strong arm, combining the ability to make acrobatic, highlight plays along with the internal clock and game savvy well beyond his years.” The Nationals signed 11 international players in total, notes Ghiroli.
  • Pedro Leon, OF, Astros: Houston will pay $4MM to add MLB.com’s 7th-ranked international prospect to their system, per Sanchez. Baseball America has Leon as the top prospect of his class. Like Céspedes, the Cuban outfield is one of the older members of this class, but he brings plus speed, power, and the ability to stick in centerfield.
  • Manuel Beltre, SS, Blue Jays: The Blue Jays added perhaps the most advanced hitter of the class in Beltre. MLB.com has Beltre as the No. 24 ranked prospect in the class, signing for $2.6MM, though Shi Davidi of Sportnet.ca (via Twitter) pegs the final number to be closer to $2.35MM. The Dominican shortstop could ultimately end up at second base, Sanchez writes, but he has arm enough to stay at short.
  • Pedro Pineda, OF, Athletics: MLB Insider Jon Heyman (via Twitter) has Pineda signing with Oakland for less than $4MM, but the sum isn’t likely to fall far below that threshold. Baseball America has Pineda as the No. 11 ranked prospect in this class, writing, “Pineda is a strong, athletic, physical center fielder with a loud tool set and a power/speed threat. He has excellent speed, a fast bat and the power potential to hit 25-plus home runs.”

Several other well-regarded prospects also secured bonuses of $2MM or more, with the specifics provided here by Sanchez:

  • Rays, $3MM, shortstop Carlos Colmenarez
  • Cubs, $3MM, shortstop, Cristian Hernandez
  • Pirates, $2.3MM, outfielder Shalin Polanco
  • Tigers, $2.95MM, shortstop Cristian Santana
  • Twins, $2.3MM, shortstop Danny De Andrada
  • Angels, $2MM, shortstop Denzer Guzman
  • Marlins, $3.5MM, shortstop Yiddi Cappe

Mets, Brad Hand Discussing Deal

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The Mets are working to sign free agent reliever Brad Hand to a two-year contract, per the Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (via Twitter). A contract is not yet signed, however, and the two sides may not be particularly close to resolution, writes MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter). Rosenthal adds two other sources in concert with Feinsand’s assessment that the two sides are not as close to a deal as it was first reported.

Hand unwittingly became an emblematic figure for this winter’s free agency when the Indians surprisingly chose to waive him rather than bring him back on a one-year, $10MM deal. When none of the other 29 teams claimed Hand, despite the seemingly favorable terms of his one-year pact, the tenor for the winter was set. Interest has picked up in recent weeks for Hand, however, as the Astros, Blue Jays, and Dodgers all expressed at least some degree of interest along with the Mets, obviously, and the Red Sox, we learned today from Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com (via Twitter).

The White Sox have expressed interest in the past, though they would seem to be less likely to win the bidding for Hand after their pricey accord with Liam Hendriks. Hand would be an equally impactful signing for the Mets, should they ultimately get him. The Mets bullpen ranked 21st in the Majors last season with a 5.01 ERA, 16th by fielding independent pitching with a 4.46 FIP. That said, Hand would buoy any bullpen after a 2020 season with a 2.05 ERA/1.37 FIP over 22 innings with a 33.7 percent strikeout rate, 4.7 percent walk rate, and 26.5 percent groundball rate.

2020-2021 International Signing Period Opens Today

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It may be January 15th, but it feels like July in the baseball world. The 2020-2021 international signing period kicks off today after a six-month delay from the usual kickoff date of July 2. Teams are officially able to begin signing amateur talents from countries outside of the United States and Canada. The signing period extends from today until Dec 15, 2021, providing teams with an 11-month window to spend their international prospect pool funds. Prospects aged 16 and up – born after Sept. 1, 2004 – are eligible to sign minor league contracts with teams for signing bonuses that fall within the constraints of a league-allotted bonus pool.

Those looking to brush up on the top prospects this class has to offer will want to look at the invaluable work put into the subject by Ben Badler of Baseball America (subscription required) and Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com. As ever, Badler provides an abundance of information on expected destinations/bonuses for the top free agents in the 2020-21 class. Sanchez provides his own Top 30 with free scouting reports (and likely destinations).

After all of that — here’s a quick primer on the specifics of the international free agency system.

Unlike the system that was in place from 2012-16, in which teams would routinely shatter their international bonus pools and take two-year signing penalties in exchange for one enormous haul of amateur talent, the system under the 2017-21 collective bargaining agreement contains a hard cap that cannot be exceeded. Teams are typically permitted to trade for up to 75 percent of their originally allotted bonus pool, however, and any team is free to trade away as much of its pool as it wishes. International pool allotments must be traded in increments of $250K — unless it includes the last remainder of a team’s pool. This season, however, teams are not able to trade international bonus pool space.

Penalties from the previous international signing periods carried over with the new system, but those have all now run their course. There is one team that continues to face limitations on spending, for a different reason. The Braves continue to operate under significant long-term penalties as punishment for violating international spending guidelines. They have been stripped of half their league-allotted bonus pool in the 2020-21 period.

The Competitive Balance lottery that awards 14 teams with additional picks based on market size and total revenue also has an impact in international free agency. The teams that were awarded Competitive Balance picks in Round B (between rounds two and three of the draft) will have the largest bonus pools. Teams that were awarded selections in Competitive Balance Round A (between rounds one and two) will have the second-largest pools.

Beyond that, free agency itself can have an impact. Teams that sign players who have refused a qualifying offer (QO) are subject to forfeitures in their international bonus pool in some instances. Specifically, a club which exceeded the luxury tax threshold in the previous season and also signs a QO free agent surrenders $1MM of its international pool in the following period. Teams that did not exceed the luxury tax but also did not benefit from revenue sharing will forfeit $500K of international pool for each QO free agent signed.

This year’s international spending pool amounts were announced back in June. For those who missed it, this year’s allotments are…

  • The Brewers, Reds, Marlins, Rays, Tigers, and Twins have the highest availability at $6,431,000.
  • The Cardinals, Pirates, Diamondbacks, Padres, Rockies, Indians, Royals, and Orioles are next at $5,899,600.
  • A dozen teams (Astros, Athletics, Mariners, Rangers, Red Sox, Blue Jays, White Sox, Mets, Nationals, Cubs, Dodgers, Giants) can spend $5,348,100.
  • The Angels and Phillies are capped at $4,372,700, while the Yankees are limited to $4,232,700.
  • The Braves bring up the rear because of their penalties, limited to a spending cap of $1,572,700.

This post was adapted from a prior post written by MLBTR’s Steve Adams.

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