Twins Notes: Cruz, Rosario, Pohlad On Payroll, Free Agency In 2021
Twins owner Jim Pohlad said recently that the revenue losses due to the pandemic in 2020 won’t be the impetus for payroll decision-making in 2021, per Phil Miller of the Star Tribune (via Twitter). Pohlad does admit to the uncertainty facing next season, especially concerning future fan attendance. Pohlad refers to an “uncertainty discount” in discussing the planning for next season, though what that means in practical terms is yet to be determined.
The Twins ran out an estimated luxury tax payroll of $158MM in 2020, though the actual number was more like $132MM, and their ultimate payout to players was closer to $45MM after prorating salaries, per Cot’s Contracts. The Twins have an estimated payroll of around $100MM for 18 players next season, which is very much an estimate, as it includes estimated arbitration totals that have an even wider range of potential outcomes than usual.
The Twins have shown a commitment to winning when they view their window of contention to be open, however, as it very much is right now (despite their playoff struggles). To that end, they are currently negotiating to bring back designated hitter Nelson Cruz, writes La Velle E. Neal III of the Star Tribune. Cruz is said to be looking for a two-year deal. He just wrapped a successful two-year, $26MM deal with the Twins in which he managed a 163 wRC+ with 57 home runs over 737 plate appearances in 173 games.
A re-do of the same contract for Cruz would absorb something close to 40% of the payroll available before matching last season’s total. There’s murky math there, at best, considering the lack of clarity around arbitration and Pohlad’s “uncertainty discount.” The point remains that the Twins would figure to be judicious in certain areas this winter. That could mean non-tendering someone like Eddie Rosario, Neal suggests. The thinking there is that if the Twins believe top prospect Alex Kirilloff is ready for an outfield corner – with Max Kepler locked into another outfield spot and Byron Buxton still two seasons from free agency – they could save something close to $10MM by non-tendering Rosario.
In terms of a potential headline-making move in free agency, per Neal, Pohlad said, “We could, but we don’t know what the market for such a player is going to be. In a sense there has been, in my view — and I’m not speaking for the players or the union — there has to be some degree of risk sharing here.” Speculatively speaking, that could mean contracts with heavy incentives, even ones depending on fan attendance, though that would certainly set a complex precedent for the MLBPA. Owners would be more likely to address the issue of financial security through larger negotiations with the MLBPA.
Pohlad’s actions during the pandemic might lend a little more credence to his comments than the average owner, as the Twins have been one of the few franchises not to make any layoffs during this time. As Neal points out in his article, which is well worth a full read, Pohlad’s varied portfolio allowed the Twins to weather the storm better than most. Still, credit the Twins owner for committing to the continued employment of his staff during this difficult time.
Mike Freeman Elects Free Agency
Infielder Mike Freeman elected free agency today, the Indians announced. He had previously been outrighted. With his decision, Cleveland now has 6 open spots on their 40-man roster.
Freeman has been outrighted before by the Indians, but he found his way back regardless for the 2020 season. The 33-year-old veteran has never been a major-league regular, but he’s nonetheless a 5-year veteran having spent time with the Diamondbacks, Mariners, Dodgers, Cubs, and Indians.
His most prolific season came in 2019 with the Indians when he slashed .277/.362/.390 with 4 home runs across 213 plate appearances. He appeared in 24 games in 2020, though just 8 as a starter. He slashed .237/.302/.316 over 43 plate appearances.
The former 11th round pick of the Diamondbacks plays all over the diamond, with his value coming primarily via defensive prowess and versatility. He appeared everywhere in the infield as well as left field for the Indians over the past two seasons.
Brad Brach Exercises Player Option
Brad Brach exercised his $2.075MM player option to remain with the New York Mets, per Tim Healey of Newsday (via Twitter). That’s slightly more than had been previously reported, as Brach’s option had been listed as worth $1.25MM. He signed back with the Mets as a free agent this past December. He is represented by Brian Charles of Big League Management Company, LLC.
The 6’6″ sinkerballer experienced a discouraging drop in velocity in 2020. After averaging 94.1 mph on his four-seamer in 2019, his fastball clocked in at just 90.3 mph this year. Having previously been heavily reliant on his heater, throwing it roughly half the time, he threw it just 17.1% of the time in 2020. By usage, the four-seamer fell to fourth in his arsenal behind a cutter, change-up, and sinker. He made 14 appearances for the Mets in 2020, struggling to the tune of a 5.84 ERA/6.69 FIP across 12 1/3 innings with unfortunately matching 10.2 K/9 and 10.2 BB/9.
He had been a stabilizing presence for the Mets in 2019 after being signed off the scrap heap in August. The Cubs released him after a tough first half, but he rebounded with a 3.68 ERA/2.67 FIP in 14 2/3 innings across 16 appearances for the Mets. The right-handed reliever will again look to rebound in his age-35 season, which will be his 11th season as a big-leaguer. Overall, Brach has made 496 appearances out of the bullpen for the Padres, Orioles, Braves, Cubs, and Mets with a 3.39 ERA/3.76 FIP.
Quick Hits: Bauer, Angels, Hill
The Rays are changing it up tonight in an effort to even up the World Series with the Dodgers, per MLB.com’s Juan Toribio (via Twitter). Against the southpaw Julio Urías, the Rays have dropped Brandon Lowe to the 5-spot, while lefty killer Mike Brosseau gets the start at third base batting third. Hunter Renfroe gets the start in right field in place of Austin Meadows. The Rays tend to play match-ups against lefties, but don’t be surprised to see Ji-Man Choi or Meadows come in off the bench late in the game. While we wait for first pitch, let’s see what else is going on around the game…
- Trevor Bauer had more fun playing baseball with the Reds this season than in any of his prior professional campaigns, per the Athletic’s C. Trent Rosencrans. That bodes well for a return to Cincinnati for the free agent hurler, though the financial component will still have to be figured out by new head baseball decision-maker Nick Krall. Projecting free agent contracts has never been a murkier business than this season following widespread revenue loss around baseball. Bauer figures to be a rare free agent not to have his market diminished all that much, not after a Cy Young worthy campaign.
- The Angels will consider ex-Marlins executive Michael Hill to fill their General Manager vacancy, per MLB Network contributor Craig Mish (via Twitter). By all accounts, Hill’s departure from Miami stemmed from a salary disagreement, which would not be out of character for the cost conscious Marlins. Hill had been with the Marlins in one capacity or another since 2002. The Angels would represent a starkly different challenge for Hill, who has spent years managing slow-burn rebuilds in Miami. Whoever takes over baseball ops in Los Angeles will be pressured to get the team back to the playoffs as soon as possible, lest another year of Mike Trout‘s prime pass by without postseason play.
Josh James Out 6-8 Months After Undergoing Hip Surgery
Astros reliever Josh James underwent surgery to repair a labral tear in his left hip, per Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle (via Twitter). The recovery period for James is expected to be somewhere from 6 to 8 months, which means he is likely to miss the beginning of 2021.
The Astros have hoped James would take a step forward in his development for a couple of seasons now, but he struggled more than ever in 2020, particularly with his command. He remained a big piece of the bullpen into the postseason, however, when manager Dusty Baker called his number once in the ALDS and twice in the ALCS against the Rays. James managed two scoreless innings in the middle performance, but he was hit with a blown save in each of his other two outings. He gave up 4 earned runs on 5 hits (2 home runs) in 4 innings total.
During the regular season, James saw game action 13 times, including two starts, logging a 7.27 ERA/7.06 FIP across 17 1/3 innings with 10.9 K/9 to 8.8 BB/9. His four-seamer was down a tick to an average of 96.3 mph, though it wasn’t far enough off his career norms to cause concern for the 27-year-old.
Latest On Giants’ 2021 Rotation Options
Earlier today we took a brief look at the A’s rotation picture heading into 2021, but whereas the A’s have more rotation continuity than most years, it’s a starkly different picture on the other side of the bay. Most of the Giants’ 2020 rotation is heading to the open market, including Kevin Gausman Drew Smyly, Jeff Samardzija, and Trevor Cahill, writes John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle.
Of course, they got very little from Samardzija in 2020 (4 starts, 9.72 ERA), while Smyly (5 starts, 26 1/3 innings, 3.42 ERA) and Cahill (6 starts, 25 innings, 3.24 ERA) were moderate contributors. Gausman would be the biggest loss of the group, going 3-3 with a 3.62 ERA/3.09 FIP across 59 2/3 innings. The 30-year-old has provided somewhat spotty production throughout his career, making his free agency case difficult to project.
The Giants aren’t bereft of in-house options to fill out the rotation, however. Johnny Cueto remains under contract for $22MM in 2021 with a $22MM club option with $5MM buyout for 2022. The 34-year-old maintained his rotation spot in 2020, though he only provided middling production with a 5.40 ERA/4.64 FIP across 63 1/3 innings.
Beyond the veteran, the Giants have Tyler Beede returning from Tommy John surgery, as well as Logan Webb, Tyler Anderson, Andrew Suarez, and Anthony Banda who could get a look somewhere on the rotation depth chart. Prospects Seth Corry and Sean Hjelle, Shea notes, are still probably at least a year from providing quality innings at the big leagues.
The challenge for President of Baseball Ops Farhan Zaidi will be identifying those front of the rotation arms that can help the Giants contend with the Dodgers and Padres in the NL West. Anderson will be 31-years-old next year, Beede is coming off Tommy John, and Webb has largely disappointed thus far with a 5.36 ERA/4.15 FIP in 94 innings across two seasons. Depending on the timeline for their pitching prospects, the Giants could at least explore adding through the free agent market.
Liam Hendriks, Devin Williams Win Reliever Of The Year Awards
Liam Hendriks of the Oakland Athletics and Devin Williams of the Milwaukee Brewers have won the Reliever of the Year Award in their respective leagues, per MLB.com (via Twitter).
Hendriks takes home the Mariano Rivera American League Reliever Of Year Award after saving 14 games in 24 appearances with a 1.78 ERA/1.14 FIP and 13.1 K/9 to 1.1 BB/9 across 25 1/3 innings. It was the second consecutive stellar campaign for the native Australian. He posted a 1.80 ERA/1.87 FIP in 75 games (85 innings) while notching 25 saves in 2019. In the postseason, he impressed with a scoreless 3-inning outing with the season on the line in game three of the ALDS against Houston. Unfortunately, it would be his final appearance of the year, as Oakland would bow out of the postseason tourney in the next game.
Hendriks becomes the first A’s player to win the award, which replaced the Rolaids Relief Award in 2014. It’s particularly good timing for Hendriks, as the 2019 All-Star heads into free agency this winter at the pinnacle of his career.
Williams takes the Trevor Hoffman National League Reliever Of The Year Award from his teammate Josh Hader, who won the previous two seasons. It’s quite the achievement for the unheralded rookie, who rode his trademark change-up to a 0.33 ERA/0.86 FIP in 27 innings across 22 games with an absurd 17.7 K/9 to 3.0 BB/9 in 2020. The 26-year-old unfortunately missed the playoffs due to right shoulder soreness. He’ll be one of the more interesting cases to track next season, assuming a return to the standard 162-game season.
A’s Rotation Options For 2021
The Oakland A’s have grown accustomed to finding year-by-year stopgaps to fill their starting rotation. Flyball pitchers fair well in the spacious dimensions of the Coliseum, and Executive Vice President of Baseball Operations Billy Beane and General Manager David Forst apply their ballpark as an advantage by targeting under-market contact veterans like Mike Fiers, Homer Bailey, Brett Anderson, and Tanner Roark. They’re also one of the best in the game at making mid-year adjustments to keep the roster competitive.
For the first time in a while, however, they’re looking at a mostly-holdover rotation in 2021, writes Matt Kawahara of the San Francisco Chronicle. Sean Manaea, Frankie Montas, Jesus Luzardo, and Chris Bassitt are all under contract, and all four should be guaranteed rotation roles, assuming good health. Daulton Jefferies also made his debut this year, and they hope to see A.J. Puk return healthy enough to threaten for a rotation role.
Given Puk’s injury history, they might prefer to go a year leaving him in the bullpen – especially considering that’s looking like a greater need at the moment. Along with lockdown closer Liam Hendriks, relievers Joakim Soria, Yusmeiro Petit, and T.J. McFarland are heading towards free agency. Leveraging a high-impact arm like Puk in relief could be a more economical way to backfill those bullpen departures. As we noted above, the A’s have a knack for finding back-end rotation types for a reasonable fee on the free agent market. They could easily look to bring Fiers back, for instance, if he were amenable to taking a pay cut from the $8.1MM full-scale contract he was set to earn in 2020.
Latest On Red Sox Managerial Search
The Red Sox won’t be interviewing Red Sox bench coach Matt Quatraro for their managerial vacancy. Per Sean McAdam of the Boston Sports Journal, Chief Baseball Officer Chaim Bloom cannot hire anyone from the Rays for a period of two years. The condition was put into Bloom’s contract when the Rays allowed him to be hired away by Boston, which certainly makes sense, given the number of Rays executives who have been poached by other organizations the past couple of years.
Expanding the agreement to include uniformed personnel also makes sense, given that the Rays and Red Sox are divisional rivals. One might imagine the Rays being more amenable to letting someone like Quatraro take a promotion with, say, the Pirates, a league away. They proved once again to be rather prescient in putting this agreement in place before letting Bloom join Boston.
Bloom has no shortage of candidates, however. James Rowson of the Marlins, Will Venable of the Cubs, Mike Bell of the Twins, Skip Schumaker of the Padres, Luis Urueta of the Diamondbacks, and Don Kelly of the Pirates are all rumored to be in the mix. And while none of those names carry the public weight of, say, Alex Cora, the rumored favorite for the position, the process is sincere, per Rob Bradford of WEEI. Bradford is quick to point out that Kevin Cash was an unknown of a similar ilk when Bloom and the Rays chose him to be their manager.
Alex Cora remains the favorite until we hear otherwise, but these other candidates have time to make an impression. Boston cannot speak with Cora until after the World Series when his suspension will be lifted.
Rob Manfred Discusses Rule Changes, Playoff Expansion
OCT. 23: Manfred told Dan Patrick “all of the COVID-related rule changes,” including extra innings, the universal DH and seven-inning doubleheaders, are likely to “return to the status quo, absent an agreement with the players association” in 2021. Of course, a lack of a universal DH could have an effect on quite a few free agents, including Nelson Cruz. Meanwhile, Manfred once again did admit he would like to expand the playoffs, but not necessarily to 16 teams.
OCT. 22: Commissioner Rob Manfred hopes that a couple of 2020’s changes will stay as long-term additions to the MLB season, per Ronald Blum of the Associated Press. Manfred spoke in favor of an “expanded playoff format,” though he was careful to say that the 16-team format from this year might be a bridge too far.
Manfred would aim for something between the standard 10-team format at this year’s 16-teamer. He has previously advocated for a 14-team postseason, which would reward the top team in each league with a bye through the first round, with the bottom-6 playoff teams facing off in an elimination round much like this year’s Wild Card format to create the 4-team Divisional match-ups in each league.
Manfred is also in favor of keeping the man-on-second extra innings rule. Blum notes that the longest games this season were a pair of 13-inning affairs. The rule certainly drove more action in extra innings, and though eliminating the couple of marathon-type extra innings games would seem to be a small victory in the grand scheme of things, MLB can check that box, it would seem.
Once the season ends, Manfred will be back to the laborious process of negotiation with Head of the Players’ Union Tony Clark. It won’t be a total back-to-the-drawing-board situation, but given the temporary nature of this season, the changes that were made will need to be re-addressed this winter.