TC Zencka | MLB Trade Rumors

NL Notes: Giants, Phillies, Free Agent Spending

By TC Zencka | November 7, 2020 at 8:06pm CDT

Everything is on the table for the Giants this winter, per the Athletic’s Andrew Baggarly. It’s a different kind of offseason this year, but the constant is that teams always need to build their depth, says Giants President Farhan Zaidi. Baggarly provides this quote from Zaidi, who says, “Look, we’re in a big market. We consider ourselves a signature franchise. When you look at that group of teams, there’s always an expectation for how they might act.”

Zaidi and the Giants view themselves as being in a transition phase, and many in the industry would agree. At the same time, as Zaidi points out, they’re coming off a season in which they just missed the playoffs. If a below-market opportunity jumps out at Zaidi, the Giants could end up as buyers in free agency, even at the upper levels for the right guy, it seems. But there’s not likely to be a quick-strike headline for San Francisco. Broadly speaking, Zaidi predicts a slow-moving market this winter.

The Phillies expect to be slow-movers as well, per the Athletic’s Meghan Montemurro. Team President Andy MacPhail – who for now remains the top decision-maker in the baseball ops department – said in reference to the Phillies’ plans for free agency (per Montemurro), “…the likelihood of a significant add, I think, in the short term or even midterm is not very high.” MacPhail also generally observes that teams are more concerned with subtraction than addition at this point in the offseason. Even in a normal year, trimming payroll where possible and maximizing open spots on 40-man rosters predates most additions in free agency. This year more than most, however, teams have prepped the baseball-sphere for the prospect of limited spending.

By MacPhail’s account, Philly plans on being one of the more judicious clubs this winter. That’s not great news for those hoping to see J.T. Realmuto return to the Keystone State. Still, his statement leaves some room for a bigger move down the line. As Zaidi pointed out, it’s likely to be a slow market this winter on the whole. MacPhail could simply be prepping the fanbase not to expect a big signing, as he says, in the short-or-near-term. Long-term, the Phillies could potentially jump to the buyers column. Realmuto, however, is one of the free agents likelier to sign on the earlier side, given his standing as the top catcher on the market.

Latest From Tony Clark On MLBPA, MLB Negotiations

By TC Zencka | November 7, 2020 at 6:39pm CDT

Despite the antagonistic tone of the negotiations that spilled so frequently into the public square last winter, the MLBPA is hopeful that the sequel this winter will strike a more amicable (and private) tone, per the Athletic’s Evan Drellich.

At the same time, Drellich provides interesting comments from executive director of the MLBPA Tony Clark, who spoke harshly of last winter’s mediation in saying, “In essence, going back to March, what manifested itself thereafter, we view largely as a lockout. There are lines that can be drawn between what happened this year and what may have happened historically. But I continue to remain optimistic that as a result of that experience, we have an opportunity and take advantage of the opportunity, to work through our respective disagreements to the benefit of the game moving forward.”

It’s unclear what to glean from Clark’s retroactively labeling the coronavirus shutdown as a work stoppage, but if nothing else, his point highlights the severity of those negotiations. It also puts in no uncertain terms the length the players are willing to go in order to have their needs met.

Clark says the players are open to any conversation this winter, broadly speaking, but he also made a point to note the MLBPA’s general skepticism about the financial numbers being put forth by MLB in regards to their operating losses from 2020. The owners’ use of the word ’debt,’ for example, Clark explains as an evocation that misconstrues the true function of debt for businesses the size of MLB.

Issues like the universal designated hitter and extra-innings rules appear on the back-burner priority-wise for the MLBPA. One might expect a less steadfast approach from players in those areas. The MLBPA won’t be as flexible on issues of player pay. Players expect a battle in securing a full 162-game season in 2021, especially if fan attendance remains a non-guarantee. The owners will want the players to take some part in the financial risk of putting on a season when fans may not be allowed to attend, but the players don’t appear willing to bear that burden unless provided with more substantive proof of the operating losses suffered by MLB and the owners.

Until some of the numbers being put forth by MLB can be verified in some form or fashion, the owners’ financial concerns are likely to fall on deaf ears. MLB has been hesitant to provide more detailed financials to the players, however. This saga is likely to continue well into the winter, much as it did prior to the truncated 2020 season.

AL Notes: Mariners, Graveman, Rotation, Rays, Arozarena

By TC Zencka | November 7, 2020 at 4:48pm CDT

Kendall Graveman signed back with the Mariners with the expectation of sticking in the bullpen, he said on the Extra Innings Podcast. Graveman pitched out the bullpen consistently for the first time in his career last season for the Mariners, emerging as an option for high-leverage opportunities. The former Oakland Athletic spent 2018 with the Cubs while recovering from Tommy John. He signed with the Mariners and made a couple of starts in 2020, but the bulk of his outings came out of the bullpen. Heading into 2021, he’s fully committed to a bullpen role. He’ll the 30-years-old in December, and though he’s new to the bullpen, Graveman spoke confidently about his ability to adjust and let his stuff play up during shorter outings. The right-hander also spoke about shortening his arsenal. He plans on focusing on what works best and sticking with a couple of his strongest pitches, probably a heater, change, and curve primarily, though he also spoke about working in a two-seamer on occasion as a way to vary the look from the fastball.

Even with Graveman firmly in the bullpen, the Mariners plan on use of a six-man rotation in 2021 to help keep starters healthy, per Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times. With that in mind, they’re likely to at least explore the starting pitching market in free agency. Marco Gonzales, Yusei Kikuchi, Justus Sheffield, and Justin Dunn figure to return to the rotation in 2021, while Nick Margevicius and Ljay Newsome are the other holdovers. Logan Gilbert could also emerge as a potential option at some point in 2021, if not by Opening Day. Gilbert will turn 24 early in 2021. He finished 2019 with 9 starts in Double-A with a 2.88 ERA.
Randy Arozarena’s playoff performance was a dramatic enough affair to spark a feature film. Wonderfilm Media has begun working on an Arozarena biopic with plans for release in 2022 or 2023, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. The film, of course, won’t solely portray the postseason. Rather, the film will focus on Arozarena’s journey to MLB from Cuba. Wonderfilm co-founder Bret Saxon said (per Topkin), “We feel like the heart of this movie is his journey, and the people around him, how he was inspiring and helping the family back home. But, for sure, some of those big payoff moments are on the field, so there will be plenty of actual baseball in stadiums.”

Vlad Guerrero Jr. Hopes To Play Third Base in 2021

By TC Zencka | November 7, 2020 at 3:15pm CDT

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has every intention of playing third base in 2021, per Emily Sadler of Sportsnet.ca. Guerrero understands why the move was made, but the decision to move Vlad Jr. to first was in part to protect him from a knee injury that contributed to his struggles at the hot corner in 2018. With the injury behind him, Guerrero apparently has some newfound fervor to turn himself into a viable option at third. Vlad’s defensive marks at first in 2020 were similar to his DRS and UZR at third base in 2019, which is to say they weren’t great (-4 DRS, -13.8 UZR/150). To his credit, Vlad took responsibility for letting himself fall out of shape during the pandemic shutdown.

If Guerrero succeeds, the Blue Jays could broaden their free agent search to include a full-time first baseman or second baseman. Cavan Biggio could move to first base full-time, leaving Toronto to explore pacts with Kolten Wong, DJ LeMahieu, or Cesar Hernandez, suggests Shi Davidi of sportsnet.ca. Of course, that probably presumes not only that the Jays are comfortable with Vlad at third, but that they are comfortable committing to him there for a couple of seasons. They have the designated hitter to play with as well, and Biggio’s versatility serves as a safety net of sorts, but it’s still worth a consideration. Travis Shaw is the incumbent at third, but he’s not likely to return as the full-time starter (.239/.306/.411 in 2020).

Timing might be an even bigger factor than Guerrero’s progress at the third for Toronto, depending on how quickly the hot stove shapes up. There are a number of high-profile third baseman available via trade should the Jays choose to go that route. This year’s platinum glove winner Nolan Arenado could theoretically be available via trade from the Rockies, as is Kris Bryant of the Cubs. Bryant can move around the diamond a bit as well, so even a star acquisition at third doesn’t preclude manager Charlie Montoyo from utilizing Vlad at both infield corners. Beyond LeMahieu, World Series champ Justin Turner is probably the best option at third base, though we here at MLBTR predict Turner to return the Dodgers.

Mets Extend Qualifying Offer To Marcus Stroman

By TC Zencka | November 1, 2020 at 12:51pm CDT

TODAY: The Mets officially announced that Stroman was issued a qualifying offer.

OCTOBER 31: The Mets plan on extending a qualifying offer to starting pitcher Marcus Stroman before tomorrow’s deadline, per MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo (via Twitter). The move does not come as a particular surprise, despite Stroman opting out of 2020. Some mystery remained, however, as the revenue losses around the game already made for some surprising cost-cutting decisions.

With that in mind, Stroman could consider accepting the $18.9MM offer, play one more year in New York, and return unencumbered to what should be at least a marginally more favorable free agent ecosystem after 2021. Under traditional circumstances, Stroman should have no problem finding a multi-year deal on the open market, but there’s more uncertainty than ever. Still, Stroman is among the very best free agent starters available, should he decline the qualifying offer and test the open waters. He is represented by Klutch Sports.

The Mets would likely welcome him back, especially with Noah Syndergaard to miss the beginning of the season while recovering from Tommy John surgery. Stroman made 11 starts down the stretch after GM Brodie Van Wagenen traded for him on July 28, 2019. Stroman was a long-rumored trade candidate with the Blue Jays, but the Mets emerged somewhat surprisingly as his ultimate destination despite being at the very fringes of contention at the time. Stroman was unable to move the needle even while going 4-2 with a 3.77 ERA/4.15 FIP in 59 2/3 innings with 9.1 K/8 to 3.5 BB/9. The Mets gave up two pretty good pitching prospects in Anthony Kay and Simeon Woods Richardson for those 11 starts from Stroman, though at the time, of course, the Mets expected to get a full 2020 from Stroman as well. He ultimately opted out of the 2020 season.

Throughout his career with the Mets and Blue Jays, the 5’7″ right-hander has a 51-47 record across 146 appearances (140 starts) totaling 849 1/3 innings with a 3.76 ERA/3.64 FIP and 7.36 K/9, 2.59 BB/9, and 59.6 GB%. He went 1-1 with a 4.40 ERA/4.15 FIP in 5 playoff starts with the Jays between 2015 and 2016, including a 6-inning, 2 earned run no-decision in a deciding game 5 ALDS win over the Rangers in 2015.

Dellin Betances Exercises $6MM Player Option To Remain With Mets

By TC Zencka | November 1, 2020 at 12:49pm CDT

TODAY: Betances has indeed exercised his option, the Mets announced (Twitter link).

OCTOBER 31: Dellin Betances is likely to accept a $6MM player option to stay with the New York Mets rather than take a $3MM buyout, per MLB Insider Jon Heyman (via Twitter).

It’s telling that Betances would take the guaranteed money here. If Betances thinks he can get more than $3MM on the open market, it would make sense to take the buyout. Given the expectations for a depressed free agent market, it’s not shocking that Betances would take the $6MM to stay in his hometown – the only baseball town he’s ever known.

Betances was once one of the top setup men in baseball with the Yankees, but a partial tear of his Achilles in September of 2019 ended his tenure with the Yankees and sent him to the free agent market. He posted a 2.36 ERA over 358 appearances with the Yankees in his 8 seasons there.

In his first action since the injury, Betances made 15 appearances for the Mets in 2020 but struggled to a 7.71 ERA/4.91 FIP in 11 2/3 innings with a troubling 0.92 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Betances has been missing a key weapon from his arsenal since his return: his 93.6 mph heater not particularly close to the 97.7 mph four-seamer he sported in his heyday with the Yankees.

Pirates To Explore Josh Bell Extension

By TC Zencka | October 31, 2020 at 9:50pm CDT

Last winter, the Pirates and Josh Bell discussed an extension to keep the hulking first baseman in Pittsburgh long-term, but nothing actionable materialized. Management plans to try again this winter, per the Athletic’s Rob Biertempfel. Bell is represented by Scott Boras, and he is currently set to enter free agency following the 2022 season.

Bell is coming off a relatively disastrous campaign in 2020, and the Pirates would likely look to secure him for a reasonable extension. Biertempfel suggests the two sides could settle on a 3-year deal, allowing the Pirates a little more long-term security, while Bell would still enter free agency in his early thirties.

Bell looked like a surefire franchise player with a .277/367/.569 breakout campaign with 37 home runs and 116 RBIs in 2019. But as much as he impressed with 2019, the inverse happened in 2020 as he stumbled with a triple slash of .226/.305/.364. His year-over-year wRC+ tumbled from 135 in 2019 to 78 in 2020.

The Pirates don’t appear particularly close to contention, and as a small market club, the argument can certainly be made that they should explore trading Bell for prospects. But the Pirates can’t likely get the kind of return they need to move him, so they have to either play out the string until free agency two seasons from now, or try to get an extra year or two or three of control before that moment.

If he bounces back, after all, an extension may only make him more appealing as a trade candidate. Scott Boras seems to prefer to take his clients to their natural free agency, and that remains the likeliest option for Bell. Still, Boras clients have signed arbitration extensions in the past, and given the current uncertainty facing free agents, now might be the right time for the Pirates to strike.

Pirates Decline Option On Chris Archer

By TC Zencka | October 31, 2020 at 8:33pm CDT

The Pittsburgh Pirates declined their $11M option on Chris Archer, making the right-hander a free agent, per Jason Mackey of PGSportsNow (via Twitter).

The 32-year-old’s last big-league action came in 2019 when he went 3-9 with a 5.19 ERA/5.02 FIP in 119 2/3 innings over 23 starts with 10.8 K/9 to 4.1 BB/9. The Pirates hoped Archer could anchor their rotation, but a 0.8 rWAR season wasn’t enough to make an substantive impact for the Buccos.

Declining Archer’s option likely means the end of a disappointing era in Pittsburgh. Much was heaped onto Archer’s shoulders after being acquired from the Rays for soon-to-be stars Tyler Glasnow, Austin Meadows, and prospect Shane Baz. The 2018 deadline deal was doomed from the start, as Glasnow by himself arguably outperformed Archer down the stretch in that season alone with 0.6 rWAR to Archer’s 0.5 rWAR. Add in the years of control the Rays have for Glasnow, Meadows, and Baz (who has yet to debut) – not to mention Glasnow and Meadows critical role in helping the Rays to win the 2020 AL pennant – and the Pirates overpay for Archer couldn’t be more clear.

Even without the added expectations of the trade, it’s difficult to view Archer’s time with the Pirates as anything but a disappointment. He’ll finish with a 6-12 record with a 4.62 ERA in 172 innings across 33 starts.

All that said, there’s hope for Archer’s future. In all likelihood, he’s looking at a short-term contract to prove himself, but he will definitley be an arm to watch as a potential rebound candidate, as MLBTR’s own Steve Adams wrote about in March. Over his 8-year career with the Rays and Pirates, the former Indians and Cubs farmhand owns a 68-80 record with a 3.86 ERA over 1,235 innings.

Quick Hits: Nationals, Yankees, Mets

By TC Zencka | October 31, 2020 at 7:56pm CDT

The Washington Nationals are facing a host of changes after missing the playoffs in their title-defense campaign. They laid off a number of front office employees, including scouts and minor league coaches, while 15 players from their 40-man roster are now free agents, writes Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post. The goal for the Nats remains as ever, building for the playoffs with a veteran-laden roster to support their young stars.

Dougherty notes a particular need for another heavy hitter in the middle of the order to help protect all-world outfielder Juan Soto. When World Series hero (and current free agent) Howie Kendrick went down with injury, the Nats didn’t have another bat capable of protecting Soto. An outfield corner spot seems the most likely place to find such a hitter, though they have a hole at first base as well, depending on the status of Mr. Nat Ryan Zimmerman, who opted out in 2020. The rest of the infield is relatively set with Trea Turner manning shortstop, Carter Kieboom and Luis Garcia looking to establish themselves at third and second, and the duo of Starlin Castro and Josh Harrison providing the safety nets for those positions.
The Yankees’ thinking on slugger Giancarlo Stanton has not changed in the weeks following their postseason elimination. The front office expects Stanton to spend most of his time at designated hitter in order to give him the best chance of staying healthy, per Erik Boland of Newsday. Though they think Stanton capable of playing the outfield, they’re paying him $29MM in 2021 for his bat to be in the lineup. If he could give them innings in the field, it would certainly help from a roster construction perspective, but his value proposition remains dependent on his offensive production.
The Mets have shut down their minor league camps because of positive COVID-19 tests, per the Athletic’s Tim Britton (via Twitter). There were two positive tests, and further testing hasn’t revealed any further positives as of right now. These are the proper protocols for any positive tests. The Mets camp will wait a couple of days until they can confirm the containment of the virus.

Latest On Dustin Pedroia

By TC Zencka | October 31, 2020 at 6:58pm CDT

7:58 pm: To be clear, there have been no firm discussions between the Red Sox and Pedroia or his agents. Discussions in the near-term are within the realm of possibility, but those talks have not happened as of yet, per Rob Bradford of WEEI.com (via Twitter). The two sides are prepared for a discussion, but decisions have not been made final, and those negotiations are not yet underway.

3:32pm: Dustin Pedroia is a Red Sox legend. Toeing the line between MLB superstar and postseason cult hero, the California-born second baseman played every game with grit and energy. The 5’9″ Pedroia could easily be mistaken for the “gutsy” brand of major-league glue guy, the overachiever who puts team first and whose motor never stops. Pedroia was exactly that, and though his blue-collar playing style could earn him the title of dirt dog, make no mistake about it: Pedroia was a superstar. A key player on two World Series winners, his accolades were numerous: 4-time All-Star, 4-time Gold Glove Award winner, a Silver Slugger award, the AL Rookie of the Year in 2007, and the AL MVP in 2008. He has accumulated 51.6 rWAR in his career, which includes 6 seasons of 5+ rWAR.

Unfortunately, knee injuries sidelined Pedroia in recent years. The 37-year-old appeared in just 9 games over the past three seasons. Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe now hears that Pedroia and the Red Sox “are prepared to talk soon about a mutual understanding that would end his playing career.” Pedroia is owed $12.125MM in 2021 – the final year of his deal. Abraham notes that the benefit for the Red Sox would be in freeing up his 40-man roster spot before the business of the offseason begins in full. No official announcement is planned, but if Abraham’s sources are indeed correct, Pedroia could make a final decision about the potential end of his playing days soon.

Currently, Pedroia owns a .299/.365/.439 career line across 6,777 plate appearances with 1,805 hits, 922 runs, 140 home runs, 138 stolen bases, and 51.6 rWAR. If Pedroia never plays another major league game, he will have put together an impressive resume that will merit consideration for the Hall of Fame.

He was drafted the same year Boston ended their 85-year playoff drought, beginning his career in A-ball as a 20-year-old during what turned out to be a magical year in Boston. It could be seen as a disappointment to arrive just after a year as redemptive and memorable as 2004 was for the Red Sox, but Pedroia didn’t appear to fret over missing out on the curse-breaking fun. Instead, he made his legacy on the continuation of a dream, helping to turn Boston into a perennial contender and one of the premiere franchises in the game. From his rookie season in 2007 – in which he roasted opposing pitchers to the tune of .317/.380/.442 – Pedroia cemented his status by ensuring Boston fans wouldn’t endure another stretch of title-less baseball. Even on a star-studded Red Sox team, Pedroia shined bright. Alongside fellow youngsters Jacoby Ellsbury, and Jon Lester, Pedroia teamed with a veteran cast of proven playoff heroes like David Ortiz, Manny Ramirez, Kevin Youkilis, Jason Varitek, Josh Beckett, and Curt Schilling to sweep the Rockies and win the World Series for the second time in four seasons.

Pedroia would again play a key role for a title team in 2013 when he posted 6.1 rWAR and finished 7th in MVP voting. For his career, Pedroia appeared in 51 total playoff games. He played his entire career with the Red Sox organization, currently sitting 7th in rWAR on their all-time franchise leaderboard. He’s also 9th in at-bats, 8th in hits, 6th in doubles, and 2nd behind only Everett Scott in defensive rWAR.

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