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The O’s Intriguing Short-Season Trade Chip

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With MLB set to propose a half-season of 2020 baseball, followed by an expanded postseason, we could be on the verge of a campaign unlike any other. There’ll be one-off rules on a whole host of topics, among them the player transactions that take place before and during the season.

While we don’t yet know when and how players will be shuttled between rosters, we have a pretty clear picture of the competitive picture that awaits. This is going to be a sprint in which every game counts. Limping through the truncated regular season could leave a talented team outside the playoff picture, or in it but in a disadvantaged position. And the broadened postseason tourney will likewise enhance the importance of winning high-leverage situations.

For teams that are built to compete right now, there’s an opportunity to salvage something out of a season that’s already sure to be a promotional and financial disappointment. While everyone will be watching the bottom line and thinking about sustainability and cost-efficiency, now more than ever, it’s also going to be harder than ever to take a wait-and-see at the trade deadline approach to roster management.

There are loads of potential consequences here for every team. We’ll surely be exploring many of them as the situation gains clarity. The one highlighted here is far from the most important, but it’s indicative of the sort of shifts in the trade marketplace we might see.

In many respects, Orioles reliever Mychal Givens is the perfect trade candidate. Let us count the ways.

Most rebuilding teams have already dealt away their most obvious veteran trade pieces. But the Baltimore organization hadn’t received sufficiently enticing offers on Givens and didn’t feel compelled to move him just yet with one more season of arbitration control remaining. The idea, no doubt, was to let him (hopefully) mow down hitters over the first half of 2020 before cashing him in at the trade deadline. Contenders would feel justified in giving up more value since they’d control him for 2021.

Now, that plan has run into some difficulties … but also some added opportunity. We don’t know if there’ll be a typical trade deadline, but even if there is, it won’t involve a slow build-up that Orioles GM Mike Elias can use to develop scenarios surrounding Givens.

On the other hand, the short-season burst will leave contenders hunting for replacements without the luxury of watching a lot of 2020 baseball. The focus will be on physical tools as demonstrated most recently, results be damned. Teams typically have more than 82 games to witness repeat testing of players before making deadline decisions. By that point, the season will be over. Teams that want to improve mid-season will have to simply imagine what is possible.

It’s reasonable to expect Givens to fare well in this analysis, whether he’s discussed in trades before or during the season. He looks the part of a monster on the mound, consistently averaging over 95 mph with his fastball in every season of his career. Ramping up the use of his change-up to equal status with his slider, and pairing it with that heater, enabled Givens to jump to a hefty 15.8% swinging-strike rate and 12.3 K/9 in 2019. True, he also coughed up 1.86 homers per nine innings, but it’s not hard to imagine that number moving back towards his career mean (0.95 per nine), especially once he’s removed from Camden Yards and the AL East. If you’re a team that routinely re-envisions how your pitchers use their arsenals, there’s no better raw material to work with.

And that also brings us back around to the point we started with: the importance of leverage. Locking up winnable games, both during the regular season and through the postseason, is going to be key. The O’s know this better than anyone, having benefited from several campaigns in which they thrived in one-run contests. Even a talented team with good health and generally good performance can experience rather significant swings in actual victories based upon just a few moments in certain close contests. And that’s all the more true in knockout rounds of the playoffs.

Givens becomes quite an appealing weapon under these parameters. He has been a workhorse, averaging over seventy frames annually over his four full seasons in the majors. More than ever, an acquiring team could envision a significant impact on its fortunes from inserting a pitcher with this skillset into its relief corps.

Further greasing the wheels here is a favorable contract situation. As noted, Givens is controlled for 2021. His salary this season is only $3.225MM and can only move northward by so much through the arbitration process. As clubs think ahead to building a winner in lean economic times, this is precisely the sort of asset they’ll wish to have.

It remains all but entirely unknown how the transactional landscape will develop. But so long as some player movement is permitted, I’m guessing that Givens will be one of the most-discussed and most-watched players as MLB’s 2020 season relaunches.

From Waiver Fodder To MLB Regular?

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If you’re a hitter who records a wRC+ of 150 during a season, it means you were absolutely tremendous and 50 percent better than the average offensive player. The Diamondbacks’ Ketel Marte finished with exactly that number last season, and as most who follow baseball know, he was a contender for National League Most Valuable Player honors. Shifting to the AL, the Orioles essentially had their own offensive version of Marte, at least against left-handed pitchers. While facing southpaws, little-known infielder Hanser Alberto batted an eyebrow-raising .398/.414/.534 in 227 plate appearances. Only J.D. Martinez (.404) bettered the right-handed Alberto’s average versus lefties, while just 18 batters defeated his 151 wRC+ against them.

Alberto’s ownership of southpaws was a rare bright spot during a 54-win campaign for the Orioles, and no one could have expected it after he was passed around so much during the previous offseason. The Rangers, with whom Alberto appeared in the majors from 2015-16 and again in 2018, designated Alberto for assignment and he left the organization when the Yankees claimed him on waivers in November 2018. He never suited up for the Yankees, though, as they lost him to the Orioles via waivers in January 2019. That was not the end of a busy offseason for Alberto, whom the Giants picked up on waivers in February before the Orioles claimed him yet again in March.

You have to give credit to the 27-year-old Alberto for persevering through a whirlwind of transactions and emerging as one of the O’s most productive players a season ago. The question now is whether Baltimore has a keeper or at least a valuable trade chip in Alberto.

First of all, the fact that Alberto thrashed lefties last year isn’t the only positive. He’s also versatile enough to play multiple infield positions (second and third) and under affordable control via arbitration through 2022. Problem is that it’s hard to envision Alberto sustaining his 2019 production. Prior to then, he was just a .192/.210/.231 hitter with zero home runs in 192 major league plate appearances. That doesn’t mean the light bulb couldn’t have gone on – Alberto was a solid .309/.330/.438 batter over 1,000 Triple-A attempts before last season – but it appears there was a substantial amount of luck lifting him up during his first year in Baltimore.

Alberto concluded last season with an overall line of .305/.329/.422 (96 wRC+) and 12 dingers and 1.9 fWAR in 550 PA. He also led the league in strikeout percentage (9.1) and came in 10th in contact percentage (86.5). Looks like good news, but was it impactful contact? Not really. According to FanGraphs, Alberto ranked dead last among 135 qualified hitters in hard-contact percentage (24.6). Statcast also wasn’t enthralled, ranking Alberto in the bottom 1 percent of the majors in hard-hit rate, average exit velocity and walk percentage. Alberto did place in the game’s 88th percentile in expected batting average (.290), but even that looks as if it will be difficult to maintain. Just about all of his damage came off southpaws (righties held him to an awful 57 wRC+), but he posted a .435 batting average on balls in play against them that you can’t reasonably expect to carry over.

While Alberto’s bottom-line production versus lefties was otherworldly last year, chances are that it won’t continue. But even if it doesn’t, you can’t criticize Baltimore in this case. The team has already gotten far more value from Alberto than it could have realistically anticipated when it added him to its roster.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason In Review: Baltimore Orioles

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The Orioles kept pretty quiet again this winter. They added a couple veteran stopgaps to temper the timelines of their young players. They also lost two Baltimore mainstays: Dylan Bundy and Mark Trumbo – both of whom had been with the big league club since 2016. Chris Davis and Mychal Givens are the only players left on the roster who have seen postseason action in an Orioles’ uniform.

Guaranteed Contracts

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

The Orioles are an interesting team from a short-season perspective. They don’t have the depth to compete over a full slate of 162 ballgames, but in some bizarro post-coronavirus tournament? They’re still probably not competitors – but they could be peskier than most suspect. Then again, that goes for all potential cellar-dwellers.

Specific to the Orioles, GM Mike Elias made clear early in the offseason what his priority number one would be: pitching depth. Elias found himself repeatedly scouring other organizations in 2019 for low-cost pitching to stanch the bleeding, and he didn’t want the O’s to be in that position again. Rushing minor-league talent to fill the void is not a palatable option for Elias. His offseason focus wasn’t so much about building a talent base in the majors as it was about protecting the future talent from the ill effects of hurried development. In that very-limited scope, Elias’ plan is sound. So while fans might not get goose bumps over the Orioles’ new arms, in this context, Tommy Milone and Wade LeBlanc are legitimate gets.

Milone has pitched in the majors in every season since 2011, and he very well might lead the majors in earned travel miles over that span. After making his debut with the Nationals, Milone pitched for the A’s for 2 1/2 years and Twins for 2 1/2 years, ably filling a rotation slot with a 4.14 ERA/4.36 FIP. 2017 was less kind as he produced lackluster results with the Brewers and Mets before taking a second turn with the Nats in 2018. Last season, however, Milone turned back the clock a tad, providing 111 2/3 innings of 4.76 ERA/5.00 FIP ball for the Mariners. Similar production would suit the Orioles’ needs just fine in 2020, especially under the conditions of a shortened season. It’s pretty darn close to a lateral move from, say, Aaron Brooks, one of last season’s stopgaps, but important nonetheless for the pitching-poor Orioles.

LeBlanc has a longer track record, but of similar shape and sound to Milone’s career. LeBlanc started his career with the Padres from 2008 to 2011. From there he went to the Marlins to the Astros, before boomeranging in 2014 from the Angels to the Yankees and back to the Angels again in the span of the 2014 season. He missed all of 2015, rehabbed with the Blue Jays’ Triple-A team in 2016 before reappearing in the majors for the Mariners and Pirates. “Boomerang” LeBlanc returned to the Mariners in 2018, where he enjoyed a semblance of stability for a pair of seasons, going 15-12 with a 4.57 ERA/4.80 FIP across 283 1/3 innings.

No, LeBlanc, 35, and Milone, 33, aren’t the same pitcher, but you’d be forgiven for getting them confused. 4.46 ERA to 4.47 ERA, 4.68 FIP to 4.58 FIP, 6.6 K/9 to 6.7 K/9. Both are among the absolute softest-tossers in the league, with Milone’s fastball averaging 87.1 mph, while LeBlanc, according to Statcast, has a “heater” that averages 86.3 mph (though he only throws it 5.7% of the time). Here’s a fun fact: LeBlanc appears in the 0th percentile for fastball velocity. Call it a case of baseball rubbernecking, but I personally would love to see a rotation with Milone, LeBlanc, and John Means, whose 91.7 mph fastball may look downright Johnsonian in comparison.

Whether either or both makes the team, let alone the rotation, is still very much in doubt (before the coronavirus craziness, MASN’s Roch Kubatko thought LeBlanc a lock to make the roster). Fellow newcomer Kohl Stewart might be a safer bet to line up behind Means, Alex Cobb and Asher Wojciechowski – though not because of his track record. Stewart comes from sturdier prospect stock as the fourth overall pick of the 2013 draft, and he’s still just 25-years-old. He arrives in Baltimore with just 62 big league innings and a matching 4.79 ERA/FIP.

On paper, Stewart is a fine low-cost gamble for a team like the Orioles, but whether or not he’s actually worth a look will depend on what the Orioles see in him that the Twins did not. If it’s just a paper gambit, there’s not a ton in Stewart’s recent history to get all that excited about – not with just 1.31 K/BB and a long list of injuries that have sapped him of his once-strong potential. But if they can improve his pitch sequencing, there may still exist some version of top-prospect Stewart to unearth. On the whole, these arms  (Milone, LeBlanc, Stewart) were brought in specifically to keep younger arms out of the fire, but if/when the O’s tire of this approach, they have a number of hurlers in the upper minors to keep on your rookie radar.

On the offensive end, the most obvious plus from the 2019 season hit the most worrying snag possible: Trey Mancini doesn’t expect to play baseball in 2020, not after a Stage III Colon Cancer diagnosis. Read his piece in the Players’ Tribune, however, and you’ll be more encouraged about Baltimore baseball than before. Mancini hit .291/.364/.535 with 35 home runs, 106 runs and 97 RBIs in 2019. His 3.5 bWAR/3.6 fWAR (132 wRC+) places him in legitimate All-Star territory, even if that distinction was bestowed upon Means in 2019. If there’s baseball in 2020, Mancini will be missed.

But if Mancini can find the silver lining in his diagnosis, we can find it for the on-field Orioles. Playing time is a limited commodity – more so in 2020 than usual – and Mancini’s absence means ample opportunities for other Orioles to establish their credibility. Our own George Miller wrote about Anthony Santander as a potential breakout candidate, and he might be the most direct beneficiary of Mancini’s absence. But waiver claims like Pat Valaika or Andrew Velazquez could see the trickle down effect while coming off the bench. Velazquez, in particular, impressed manager Brandon Hyde and his staff this spring. DJ Stewart is another candidate to see time keeping Mancini’s spot warm, along with Dwight Smith Jr., Cedric Mullins, Ryan McKenna or Yusniel Diaz.

Ryan Mountcastle could also eventually make the big league club and see time either at first, third, DH, or the outfield. Mountcastle is in the conversation as the best power hitter in the Orioles’ system, and he might be the first of a new wave of Orioles’ prospects to get excited about. He just needs a defensive position.

On the dirt, the Orioles should feature a mostly new middle infield. Richie Martin and Jonathan Villar saw the most time up the middle in 2019. Villar finds himself in a Marlins’ uniform these days, while Martin will have to earn his keep to stay on the major league roster. Last year’s Rule 5 selection could use seasoning time in the minors, though he will compete for a roster spot. Moving on from Villar was somewhat surprising, even if his price tag was getting a little high ($8.2MM in 2020). It’s not as if the Orioles have a ton of financial commitments on the roster, and he’d been a rare plus on the offensive end (107 wRC+). Still, he has just one season left of control, and there might not have been much action on the trade market. Elias did well to at least get something in return for Villar, though Easton, a 23-year-old 14th-round draft pick from 2019, does feel like a light return.

In their stead, Jose Iglesias and Hanser Alberto figure to get most of the playing time up the middle. Iglesias brings a steady glove and consistent major league production to a lineup sorely lacking in veteran experience. But he’s also a textbook second division starter, never having produced more than 2.5 bWAR in a single season, and just as often coming up shy of the 2.0 bWAR mark. Still, his glove should help.

Alberto hit .305/.329/.422 last season, a breakout of sorts of the versatile infielder. Parts of three previous seasons with the Rangers produced a mere .192/.210/.231 line. Even the current version of Alberto isn’t a clear plus on that end (96 wRC+), not with a 2.9% BB%, even if he does put the ball in play (9.1% K%).

Alberto and Iglesias don’t have a real firm hold on their positions atop the depth chart (although it’s not as if Ramon Urias, Dilson Herrera, Stevie Wilkerson and Jose Rondon are beating the door down). Velazquez may steal some at-bats, though like Alberto, he can move around the diamond, and there’s probably room for both in 2020. Richard Urena – a waiver claim from the Blue Jays – is a semi-interesting name to keep in mind. He didn’t impress enough over his time in Toronto to keep a 40-man spot, and most of the buzz around him comes from his strong showings in rookie ball. But if the switch-hitting infielder were ever to walk at the rate he did back then, he could develop into a useful bat as he enters his prime years. For now, however, he’ll start the year with Triple-A Norfolk.

Lastly, the Orioles said goodbye to Mark Trumbo and Dylan Bundy, two of their longest-tenured players. Trumbo and the Orioles had some good times, but health issues and too much of an all-or-nothing approach limited his utility. Orioles fans can look back fondly on his first year in orange and black, however, when Trumbo hit .256/.316/.533 as the AL’s home run king. He slugged 47 long balls in 2016 as a big part of that Wild Card team. Unfortunately for both team and player, Trumbo came nowhere close to repeating that production in the three years since (.242/.295/.413 with 40 home runs across 992 plate appearances). Trumbo appeared in just 12 games in 2019. At 34-years-old, there’s a decent chance he’s played his last game in the majors.

Bundy was a much-heralded prospect coming up, appearing for the first time for two appearances as a 19-year-old way back in 2012. He didn’t reappear in the majors until 2016, and he never quite took off. He finished his Baltimore career with a 38-45 record across 127 games with a 4.67 ERA/4.75 FIP. Still just 27-years-old, Bundy will look to join a long list of former Orioles to find their groove elsewhere. Elias sent Bundy to the Angels for four pitchers. None are huge prospects, with Kyle Bradish the highest ranked, landing as the Orioles #22 prospect (per Fangraphs). Isaac Mattson lands at #31, Zach Peek at #37, while Kyle Brnovich does not rank. There’s not an obvious star there, but the Orioles need prospects of all shapes and sizes, and there’s something to be said for returning three ranked arms and a flyer for a back-end starter (*though not all outlets include the four on the O’s top-30 prospects list).

2020 Outlook

For those not paying attention, you might assume the Orioles were the worst team in baseball again in 2019. But the Tigers swooped in and took that title, leaving the 108-loss Orioles without a distinction on which to hang their hats. It’s not as flashy, but we’ll give them this: the Orioles had the 4th largest year-over-year improvement from 2018 to 2019 in the American League. Their 7-win improvement (from 47 to 54 wins) outpaced all but the Twins, White Sox, and Rangers in that department. If Manager Brandon Hyde can just quadruple that feat in 2020, why, they’d be over .500. More likely, the Orioles are ticketed for a fourth consecutive season in the AL East basement.

How would you grade the Orioles’ offseason moves?  (Link for app users.)

How would you grade the Orioles' offseason moves?
C 33.64% (728 votes)
D 29.53% (639 votes)
F 20.24% (438 votes)
B 12.34% (267 votes)
A 4.25% (92 votes)
Total Votes: 2,164

10 MLB Teams Whose Business Initiatives Face Coronavirus Hurdles

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Like most every person or business, all thirty MLB teams face tough questions during the time of COVID-19. Some are relatively similar for all ballclubs, but there are obviously quite a few unique issues — some more pressing than others.

Dealing with the implications of this pandemic is probably toughest for organizations that are in the midst of executing or planning major business initiatives. We’ll run down some of those here.

Angels: The team has been cooking up potentially massive plans to develop the area around Angel Stadium. Fortunately, nothing is really in process at the moment, but it stands to reason that the project could end up being reduced in scope and/or delayed.

Athletics: Oof. The A’s have done a ton of work to put a highly ambitious stadium plan in motion. Massive uncertainty of this type can’t help. It isn’t clear just yet how the effort will be impacted, but it seems reasonable to believe the organization is pondering some tough decisions.

Braves: Luckily for the Atlanta-area organization, the team’s new park and most of the surrounding development is already fully operational. But with the added earning capacity from retail operations in a ballpark village comes greater exposure to turmoil.

Cubs: Like the Braves, the Cubs have already done most of the work at and around their park, but were counting on big revenue to pay back what’s owed (and then some). Plus, the Cubbies have a new TV network to bring up to speed.

Diamondbacks: Vegas?! Vancouver?! Probably not, but the Snakes do want to find a new home somewhere in Arizona. That effort is sure to be dented. Plus, the team’s recent initiative to host non-baseball events at Chase Field will now go on hiatus.

Marlins: The new ownership group has had some good vibes going and hoped to convert some of the positivity into a healthy new TV deal. That critical negotiation will now take place in a brutal economic environment.

Mets: So … this is probably not an optimal moment to be selling your sports franchise. The Wilpon family is pressing ahead with an effort to strike a new deal after their prior one broke down (at the worst possible time).

Orioles: That bitter television rights fee dispute that just won’t stop … it’s not going to be easier to find a resolution with less cash coming through the door. It was already setting up to be a rough stretch for the Baltimore org, with past TV money due to the Nationals and more bills to come, even while going through brutally lean years on the playing field.

Rangers: The new park is now built. While taxpayers footed much of the bill, the club still has to pay back a $600MM loan. Suffice to say the Rangers (and municipal authorities) anticipated game day revenues of more than $0 in year one when they planned out the loan repayment method.

Rays: The club’s preferred Ybor City option flamed out and it is currently engaged in a somewhat confusing effort to split time between the Tampa Bay area and Montreal. Existing hurdles to that arrangement seem only to be taller in the age of the coronavirus.

Others: We may be missing some, but it seems most other organizations are engaged more in usual-course sorts of business initiatives rather than franchise-altering efforts. For instance, the Nats have an interest in that TV deal as well. The Red Sox have been working to redevelop areas around Fenway Park. The Blue Jays are dabbling in future plans. And the Dodgers have a new TV rights deal, though that came to fruition after the pandemic hit and may not be impacted any more than any other existing carriage arrangements.

Trey Mancini Discusses Cancer Diagnosis, Outlook

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Trey Mancini has penned a must-read post for The Players’ Tribune in which he discusses his shocking colon cancer diagnosis and ongoing outlook. His uplifting attitude is most welcome in these difficult times.

As baseball tries to get back to the field in 2020, Mancini is sorting out the complicated logistics of treatment in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic. He discloses that he has been diagnosed with Stage III cancer, which will require six months of bi-weekly chemotherapy.

As Mancini acknowledges, that timeline makes it rather unlikely he’ll suit up for the Orioles in 2020, if indeed there is a season. As he puts it, “I just want to make sure that I am physically fine before I go out there and start trying to perform again at a major league level.”

It goes without saying that Mancini’s recovery is of primary importance. He says he hopes to remain active, but he’ll first need to beat the disease before he’s able to build back toward professional athletics. Additionally, added care is warranted to ensure that Mancini does not become exposed to COVID-19, as his diagnosis and treatment put him at greater risk of serious complications.

 

It’s hard to see such a vibrant young man dealing with this kind of adversity, but Mancini’s outlook is at once hopeful and inspiring. MLBTR extends its very best wishes to Mancini and his loved ones.

Did The Orioles Find A Rotation Building Block Out Of Nowhere?

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A team in a total rebuild is open to giving any player a chance, particularly when that team is drastically short on starting pitching.  With the Orioles in such a state in April 2019, it paved the way for John Means to enter the Orioles’ rotation, on the heels of three relief outings earlier that season and one (disastrous) 3 1/3-inning appearance in his Major League debut on September 26, 2018.  That outing saw Means surrender five earned runs, giving him an ugly 13.50 ERA heading into the 2019 campaign.

Means didn’t exactly force his way into the rotation during Spring Training, with only a 5.40 ERA over 13 1/3 frames of 2019 Grapefruit League action.  Still, the southpaw did manage 15 strikeouts against just four walks, and given the lack of other pitching options available in Baltimore, the O’s figured it was worth giving Means a shot.

The result was one of the only bright spots of a 108-loss season for the Orioles.  Over 27 outings and 147 1/3 innings as a starting pitcher, Means posted a 3.73 ERA, 3.09 K/BB rate, and 6.6 K/9.  The majority of that production came in the first half of the season, as Means carried a 2.50 ERA through his first 82 2/3 innings and ended up as Baltimore’s All-Star representative.

Means struggled to a 8.34 ERA in his first five post-break starts, though he did manage to get on track with a 3.26 ERA over his final 49 2/3 frames of his rookie season.  As a nod to his breakout performance, Means finished second in AL Rookie Of The Year voting, albeit a distant runner-up behind unanimous winner Yordan Alvarez.

Whenever (or if) the 2020 season gets underway, Means will stand as the de facto ace of the Orioles’ staff — an unlikely development given where he was slightly more than a year ago.  An 11th-round pick in the 2014 draft, Means moved through the farm system with unspectacular but solid numbers over his 622 2/3 minor league innings, posting a 3.83 ERA, 7.1 K/9, and 3.50 K/BB rate.  There isn’t much variance in Means’ year-to-year cumulative stats in the minors, or even in his MLB numbers in 2019.

That type of consistency gives the O’s some hope that Means can at least somewhat replicate his 2019 performance going forward, despite some of the red flags raised by advanced metrics.  Means’ ERA predictors weren’t impressive, with a FIP (4.41), xFIP (5.48), and SIERA (5.02) that were all markedly higher than his actual 3.60 ERA.  The lack of a high strikeout total hurts Means in this respect, and he also isn’t a hard thrower (average fastball velocity of 91.8 mph) or a ground-ball machine.

What he does offer is the ability to limit the damage when opposing batters do hit his offerings.  As per Statcast, Means finished in the 90th percentile of all pitchers in fewest hard-hit balls allowed, while also sitting comfortably above average (72nd percentile) in exit velocity.  Means also had only a 9.9% homer/fly ball rate last season, the fourth-lowest mark of any pitcher in baseball with at least 150 IP and a particularly useful skill for a hurler in the tough AL East.

Means’ heater isn’t particularly fast, though he does generate some good spin, as indicated by his spot in the 75th percentile of fastball spin rate.  His top pitch, however, is a changeup that Fangraphs ranked as one of the best in the league last season.  Only six pitchers with 150+ innings thrown had a better pitch value score on a changeup than Means’ +12.3 number.

Means just turned 27 yesterday and is under team control through the 2024 season (and not arbitration-eligible until the 2021-22 offseason), giving the O’s plenty of flexibility with his future.  Given the long rebuild ahead for the Orioles, it may be a reach to count on Means to still be a productive member of the rotation by the time Baltimore is next ready to contend, so the O’s could eventually consider him as a trade chip.

There wasn’t much buzz about Means on the rumor mill this past winter, as while Baltimore is still at the point of its rebuild that any trade option must be considered, the club might prefer to see what they have with the left-hander in his sophomore year.  A case could be made that the O’s should have sold high on Means given his lack of a track record, and yet even with some regression baked into his future numbers, the potential of Means being a solid innings-eater going forward carries a lot of value.  For a team with so little pitching depth on hand, an unheralded prospect blossoming into at least a decent MLB-level arm counts as a big success.

When Trusting The Decline Phase Goes Wrong: The Reds’ Decision To Trade Frank Robinson

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Let’s begin this look back at perhaps the most famous (or infamous) age-related trade in baseball history with a simple point: the decline phase is real.  Both analytical data and just plain common sense dictates that players become less productive as they get older, and this logic has been the backbone of countless transactions over the decades.  We see several examples every year of teams being willing to invest in younger free agents, or being willing to give up more in a trade for a younger player (who, in most cases, also comes with more years of team control), while also being less willing to surrender trade assets or big free agent dollars for players in their 30’s, out of a fear that those players might quickly hit the wall.

So in this sense, Reds owner/GM Bill DeWitt wasn’t entirely off the mark by deciding to trade Frank Robinson to the Orioles for a three-player package back on December 9, 1965.  It’s always better to move a player a year too early than a year too late, and since Baltimore was willing to give up a promising 26-year-old right-hander in Milt Pappas as the headliner of the trade return, DeWitt felt it was a swap worth making.

Pappas was coming off an All-Star season in 1965, the second time the Detroit native had been named to the Midsummer Classic in a four-season span.  Despite his still-young age, Pappas was already a veteran of nine MLB seasons, with an impressive 3.24 ERA (113 ERA+) to show for his 1632 career innings.  He was the type of arm that seemingly promised an immediate rotation upgrade, and the inclusion of veteran righty reliever Jack Baldschun only made the deal more tempting for the Reds.  Cincinnati pitchers had a cumulative 3.88 ERA in 1965, ranking the Reds 16th out of the 20 Major League teams.

And thus, the O’s sent Pappas, Baldschun, and 21-year-old outfielder Dick Simpson to Cincinnati for Robinson.  It was a classic pitching-for-hitting type of swap that saw both teams deal from a surplus in order to address a need, and on paper, the trade made some sense.

On paper.

In practice, no discussion of baseball’s most lopsided deals is complete without mention of this trade, which ended up sparking a golden age of Orioles baseball.  The thing about baseball’s aging curve is that those who can defy it tend to defy it in a very big way — great players are defined, after all, by sustaining that greatness over an extended period of time.  Any player can have one big season or even several big seasons, but those who can keep that production up across the decades are the ones that truly stand out as all-time legends.

Case in point, Frank Robinson, who was a superstar from essentially day one.  Robinson won NL Rookie Of The Year honors in 1956 and also finished seventh in NL MVP voting in his first season, kicking off a dominant ten-year run in Cincinnati.  Over 1502 games and 6408 plate appearances from 1956-65, Robinson hit .303/.389/.554 with 324 home runs, making eight All-Star appearances and winning the NL MVP Award in 1961 (a year that saw the Reds win the NL pennant).

There wasn’t much evidence that Robinson was slowing down in 1965, though the slugger did turn 30 years old that August.  This detail is maybe the key factor in why this trade is so memorable over 54 years later.  Asked why he dealt one of baseball’s best hitters, DeWitt described Robinson as either “an old 30” or “not a young 30,” depending on the source.

Naturally, trading Frank Robinson for any reason wouldn’t have been a fond memory for Reds fans regardless of the specific details.  But DeWitt’s mention of Robinson’s age created an easy hook for both the media and maybe even for Robinson himself, who by all accounts was very motivated to prove that the Reds erred in trading him.

That motivation led to Robinson’s 1966 campaign, one of more wall-to-wall dominant seasons any player has ever enjoyed.  Robinson won the Triple Crown (49 homers, 122 RBI, .316 average) while also leading the AL in runs (122), OBP (.410) and slugging percentage (.637) for good measure.  He proceeded to post a 1.232 OPS in the World Series, leading to Series MVP honors as the Orioles won the first World Series championship in franchise history.  As you might expect, Robinson was named AL MVP, making him the first and still only player to ever win MVP honors in both the American and National Leagues.

Robinson hit .301/.401/.543 with 179 homers over his six seasons in Baltimore.  This was good for a 169 OPS+, which topped his 150 OPS+ during his previous decade in a Reds uniform.  The Orioles reached the World Series four times in Robinson’s six years on the roster, winning another championship in 1970.  Ultimately, Robinson didn’t start to slow down at the plate until 1976, his 21st and final season.

As any Reds fan can sadly recount, Cincinnati’s end of the trade didn’t work out nearly as well.  Baldschun and Simpson didn’t contribute much over two seasons with the Reds and both didn’t play in the majors after 1970.  While Pappas only posted a 4.04 ERA over 490 innings for the Reds before being dealt to the Braves in June 1968, it’s unfair to label him as a bust — it’s just that anything short of Cy Young-level performance would have paled in comparison to Robinson’s Orioles dominance.  Pappas went on to pitch eight more seasons in the big leagues, with a 3.57 ERA that represented only a relatively minor step back from his heyday in Baltimore.

The Reds struggled to a 76-84 record in 1966, and DeWitt both stepped down from the GM role and sold the club during the offseason.  Though DeWitt had a long career as an executive that included two pennant winners (the 1961 Reds and the 1944 St. Louis Browns — ironically, the franchise that would later become the Orioles), the Robinson trade is the move that DeWitt is most remembered for today, in large part because of his “not a young 30” quote.

The deal has become maybe the all-time cautionary tale for any team thinking about moving an aging but still-productive star.  Though there are far more examples of teams either correctly parting ways with a player before their eventual decline, or (by contrast) hanging onto a star player too long and watching him decline on their watch, no GM wants to be the one responsible for trading away a legend.  Father Time may not undefeated, as the saying goes, though Robinson put up as good of a battle against the aging curve as any just about any player in any sport.

AL East Notes: Red Sox, Judge, Cobb

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Here’s the latest chatter from the AL East …

  • So, that whole Red Sox sign-stealing saga is over with now … right? Not entirely, as Evan Drellich and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic write (subscription link). The determinations of commissioner Rob Manfred create quite a few questions — not least of which involving his decision to focus the brunt of his punitive power on one Red Sox employee (replay operator J.T. Watkins). Manfred’s actions haven’t sated MLBTR readers, at least, according to the early results of our poll on the punishments. Perhaps the most interesting issue, from a broader perspective, involves the league’s responsibility for managing all this. As Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom puts it: “I also think structurally we ought to do everything we can to make sure that confusion can’t occur and that these aspects of our game are beyond reproach.” Another way to frame the matter: the rules and enforcement regime needs to be set up to ensure results rather than dealing with fallout on an ad hoc basis.
  • It seemed the Yankees were going to spend the early part of the 2020 season dealing with another odd slate of injuries before the season went on pause. Now that star outfielder Aaron Judge has had plenty of time to figure out what was bothering him (rib stress fracture) and to recuperate … might that be avoided? MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch writes that Judge is working out at the Yankees’ spring complex and taking his time to avoid any unnecessary complications. Judge says he expects to be ready for “doing a little more here in about a week or two,” at which point he can hopefully begin building towards baseball readiness. There’s still nothing close to a clear starting point for the 2020 season, so there’s obviously no rush.
  • Alex Cobb’s signing is one of several big-contract misfires that have hamstrung the Orioles over the years. But he had seemingly fully recovered from the hip problem that plagued him last year, MLB.com’s Joe Trezza writes. Cobb had a rough 2018 season and made only three starts last year, but there’s still time for the 32-year-old to provide at least some value. The best-case scenario probably would’ve been a bounce back during the first half of the 2020 season, potentially setting the stage for a mid-summer deal. Perhaps now the O’s will end up attempting to move Cobb — who’s owed $14MM in 2020 and $15MM in 2021 — over the ensuing offseason, depending upon what (if anything) he’s able to show this year.

Steve Pearce Announces Retirement

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Veteran infielder Steve Pearce is officially hanging up his spikes, he tells WEEI’s Mike Mutnansky (writeup via Rob Bradford). He was not currently under contract with any MLB organization.

Pearce, who turned 37 yesterday, had already indicated he was unlikely to resume his playing career. Though he kept the door open late last year, he has now put to rest any possibility of a surprise return.

Last year turned out to be an injury-ruined disappointment — hardly the only time that Pearce’s body has betrayed him over the years. He managed to appear in 13 campaigns and achieve a full decade of MLB service in spite of his many health woes, but was limited to 2,555 plate appearances over that span.

Now that he has formally wrapped up his playing career, we can put a final wrap on it. Pearce owns a cumulative .254/.332/.440 batting line with 91 home runs. He appeared with seven organizations at the game’s highest level: the Pirates, Orioles, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Rays, Yankees, and Astros.

Pearce will be remembered most for his surprising breakout years in Baltimore and his brief but notable late run in Boston. He entered his age-30 season with a completely unremarkable record in the majors. He ended up making virtually his entire contribution at the game’s highest level over the ensuing six-year stretch (2013-18), over which he recorded a .266/.347/.479 slash (123 OPS+).

After moving to the Red Sox at the 2018 deadline, Pearce delivered a monster effort down the stretch before a three-homer showing in the 2018 World Series that earned him the MVP award for the series. In his recent comments, Pearce rejected the notion that the 2018 Red Sox benefited from illicit sign-stealing efforts — a matter that still remains unresolved by league investigation, at least publicly.

Latest On Trey Mancini’s Recovery

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Orioles GM Mike Elias provided an update on outfielder Trey Mancini, who is recovering from surgery to remove a malignant tumor. Among those to cover the discussion was Rich Dubroff of BaltimoreBaseball.com.

Mancini is said to be “doing well” now, one month after the tumor was removed. But the timeline for his return to regular baseball activities will be measured in “months rather than weeks,” per the O’s GM.

Mancini’s personal well-being would be the top priority regardless, but there’s certainly no reason now to accelerate his  return with the season on pause. That Mancini’s baseball career is even a reasonable topic of discussion is itself a good sign. Elias emphasizes that it was not only a “major procedure” but also a “major life event” for the 28-year-old.

Fortunately, the broader outlook seems to be about as good as could be hoped given the underlying condition. Elias explains: “His health status personally, the way that the operation went and the demographics age-wise and health-wise that he resides in going into this puts him in a really good spot to make a 100 percent recovery both from a general health standpoint, but also a baseball sense.”

Mancini is coming off of his best of three full MLB seasons. In 2019, he swatted 35 home runs and turned in an excellent .291/.364/.535 batting line in 679 plate appearances. Hopefully he’ll have a chance to build off of that strong performance sooner than later.

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