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Odds and Ends: Hendrickson, Soria, Sherrill

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Here’s today’s random collection of links.

  • The Marlins signed Mark Hendrickson as the veteran leadership guy for ’08, at a cost of $1.5MM.  He was knocked around in 15 starts for the Dodgers in ’07 but was solid in the pen.  The Marlins will put him in the rotation, perhaps to tutor fellow southpaws Andrew Miller and Scott Olsen.
  • Craig Brown would like to see the Royals use Joakim Soria as a starter.
  • There is a theory that the Mariners’ signing of Arthur Rhodes will allow them to trade George Sherrill in an Erik Bedard deal.  Seems a half-baked theory, wherever it originated.  I don’t think Sherrill is holding this deal up.
  • An argument for the Nate Robertson extension from Danny Knobler, and one against from J.C. Bradbury.  Also, Peter Abraham thinks Chien Ming-Wang’s agent will use Robertson as a comparable.
  • The White Sox are still considering Bartolo Colon, according to ESPN Radio’s Bruce Levine.
  • Pat Burrell would love to re-sign with the Phillies after this season.  Pat, by the way, doesn’t have a computer and owes his second half success to "more hits."
  • Phil Hughes has a computer, and even a new blog.  Not much going on over there yet though.

Mailbag: Roberts, Teixeira, Johan, Nathan, And More

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Time for this week’s mailbag.  You can hit it up at mlbtrmailbag@gmail.com to get in your question for next week.

Do you see the Twins signing a big name middle of the order bopper or trading for one before the opening of the new stadium in 2010? – Jordan

Funny you ask this.  I recently asked LEN3 whether the Twins would have a $100MM payroll for the 2010 season, and he said, "I don’t see it."  So I’ll go with his wisdom and say business as usual for the Twins despite the stadium.

Why are the White Sox not aggressively pursuing any pitching? Do they realistically think that Gavin Floyd and John Danks can hold down the #4 and #5 spots in the rotation on a contender? I believe we need to fill the holes with some veteran pitching such as Livan Hernandez who can eat up innings and possibly add Corey Patterson at center field. – Joel

I was just discussing this with a former coworker of mine.  I can’t see the White Sox sneaking into a Wild Card berth with this rotation, but what’s the alternative?  I don’t like the Livan idea.  I would consider signing a couple of swingmen/injury risk types such as Brett Tomko or Bartolo Colon if he looks decent.  Just a few low risk/OK reward guys with good stuff who could pay off.  There’s no place for Patterson in the current Chicago outfield, I wouldn’t do that.

Were the Cubs holding off on the Brian Roberts trade until they got Lieber? – Bryant

The Cubs/Roberts thing still seems possible, and trading both Sean Marshall and Sean Gallagher is slightly easier to stomach with Lieber on board.  If I were Jim Hendry I would let the whole Roberts idea go though.

What is the likelihood of the Braves signing Mark Teixeira long-term? – Matthew

I’ll put it at a 10% chance.  This is a $100MM+ contract and he’s represented by Scott Boras.  He’ll probably want to test the open market, and there could be some ridiculous bids.

When, just when will this Santana situation be over?!  It’s just killing me! – Dan

We all feel your pain Dan.  Most folks seem sick of reading similar rehashed rumors about this.  I would be surprised if we don’t know Santana’s fate one month from now.  Of course if his fate is to start the season with the Twins, then the rumors will restart in June.

Are there any trade rumors involving Joe Nathan? – Justin

C’mon Justin, you know I’d never hold out rumors on you.  If Bill Smith is shopping Nathan around or getting inquiries, all parties are running very tight ships.  Desperation for closers seems to kick in midseason, when certain bullpens are established as clearly crappy.  So guys like Nathan and Huston Street may be more likely to be moved in June or July.

Why did the Josh Beckett/Mike Lowell for Hank Blalock/John Danks deal fall through back in November of ’05? – Oliver

The Rangers believed the deal was done, and hoped to avoid any leaks before it was official.  However, a source tipped off the Palm Beach Post.  The Post and a Texas newspaper ran with it.  It was at that point the Boston front office found out, swooped in, and beat the Rangers’ offer.  Those reporters altered history.

What do you see the Milwaukee Brewers doing with their pitching surplus?  Do you see them maybe using some of their excess pitchers like Capuano and Bush to acquire a young catcher with some upside? – Tyler

We’ve seen it a million times – these winter pitching surpluses turn into deficits by May.  There is certainly a case to be made for the Brewers to just stand pat, though all those arms would be tough to squeeze in given the bullpen acquisitions.  MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy expects some of the surplus to be traded before Spring Training.  I like the catcher idea – Jeff Clement (Mariners), Bryan Anderson (Cardinals), or Taylor Teagarden/Gerald Laird (Rangers) seem like possible matches.

Do the Yankees sign Bobby Abreu after the 2008 season? – Andrew

Andrew notes that the Yanks have some money coming off the books after the ’08 season.  The right field alternatives are weak, so Abreu could make sense.  If he’d take a two or three-year extension midseason I could see Cashman doing it.

Did you ever sell your place in Lombard? – Steve

Thankfully I did.  I tried selling by owner for a month and barely got any bites.  Then I hired an agent and she sold it in three days.

Mets Prefer Bedard Over Santana?

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Interesting line from Lisa Kennelly of the Newark Star-Ledger today:

The Mets, however, prefer Baltimore’s Erik Bedard over Santana, since he wouldn’t require the same lucrative extension as part of the deal.

The Mets have an option the Red Sox and Yankees probably don’t – they might be able to acquire Erik Bedard for a price similar to what it would take to get Johan Santana.  It makes complete sense that Bedard would be more attractive – it’s two years of him versus one of Santana.  Even if Santana is a slightly better/more durable pitcher, two years easily outweighs that.  Jon Heyman said on December 3rd that the Mets had offered Carlos Gomez, Phil Humber, and Aaron Heilman for Bedard, which "barely drew a response from Baltimore."

The Mets’ interest in Bedard goes back for at least a few months; it’s probably just been on the backburner.  The Red Sox and Yankees have expressed interest, but it was said that Peter Angelos didn’t want to trade Bedard within the division.

Johan Santana Rumors

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It’s time for today’s dose of Johan Santana rumors and info.  It’s funny – I sense that everyone is getting sick of this stuff and would prefer a fresh rumor about, say, Brad Wilkerson. 

  • Lisa Kennelly wrote this morning that the Mets appear to be sticking to their guns with an offer of Carlos Gomez or Fernando Martinez, Phil Humber, Kevin Mulvey, and Deolis Guerra.  However, she says the Mets prefer Erik Bedard over Santana since he will not require a huge extension.  The New York Times adds that the Mets "are not engaged in heavy discussions with the Twins."
  • MetsBlog’s Matthew Cerrone dives into the situation, summing up recent events and providing some insight from a roundtable that included Ken Rosenthal, Dan Graziano, and Jim Duquette.
  • Michael Silverman, with some help from Baseball America, evaluates each reported package of prospects that has been offered for Santana. 
  • An end may be in sight – the Twins lose leverage if teams truly start to pull out, writes Joe Christensen.

Kubatko’s Latest: Jones, Dotel, Barajas

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Roch Kubatko of the Baltimore Sun has a blog update with plenty of new hot stove info.

  • Adam Jones never left Venezuela, and has been cleared to play in tonight’s winter league game.  Does this means something changed in the Erik Bedard talks?  We can only speculate.
  • The Orioles have been talking to the agents for free agents Octavio Dotel and Rod Barajas.  The Dotel talks were recent.  However, Kubatko says "late inning relief isn’t a top priority."  Maybe Andy MacPhail just wants to see if he can get Dotel on a nice one-year deal for $6MM or so.
  • MacPhail told Kubatko, "We haven’t closed any doors" in response to a question about supposedly dead talks with the Cubs.  Nothing seems imminent but perhaps the two sides are still discussing Brian Roberts after all.

Jonathan Mayo Discusses Bruce For Bedard

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You’ve probably heard of Jonathan Mayo.  He’s a prominent writer on MLB.com, focusing on the minor leagues more recently.  Mayo recently wrote a book called Facing Clemens, which "puts you right in the batter’s box against the Rocket Man."  Mayo finished the book before the steroid allegations surfaced, but it sounds like an interesting read regardless.

In the interest of full disclosure, I should mention that if you click the above Amazon link and buy the book, I’ll get 46 cents.  Hopefully Mayo gets a better cut than that from his publisher!

Anyway, I asked Mayo a handful of questions for publication on MLBTR.

MLBTR: If you were Wayne Krivsky, would you trade Jay Bruce for Erik Bedard straight up?  What players would you compare Bruce to?  How does Bruce compare to Adam Jones?

Mayo: In a word, no. I wouldn’t trade Bruce for Bedard straight up. Frankly, and maybe I’m a little prospect-slanted, there’s not much I would trade Jay Bruce for. Not only is the guy going to be one of the game’s great hitters, he’s an outstanding individual who’ll represent the organization extremely well. I know that’s not the be-all, end-all, but Bruce is going to be a true ambassador for the game. He’s going to hit for average, get on base, hit for a ton of power, play good OF (eventually RF, but fine in CF for now), throw runners out, maybe even steal a few bases. It’s hard to come up with a good comparable, but I’ll go with Larry Walker. Maybe not quite as much speed, but it’s pretty close.

Jones is more of a prototypical five-tooler, who won’t hit for as much power right away. I think Bruce has more power potential than Jones, while Jones is likely a bit faster and will stay in CF.

Erik Bedard Rumors

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Jason Churchill of Prospect Insider dug up "a few fresh nuggets" regarding the Erik Bedard trade discussions.

  • The Mariners reportedly offered Adam Jones, Jeff Clement, and George Sherrill for Bedard.  Seems the Orioles want Brandon Morrow or Carlos Triunfel instead of Clement.  One source of Churchill’s believes the Mariners would be more inclined to buckle and surrender Morrow than Triunfel.  It’s even possible that the Orioles gave the Mariners a "final counteroffer" including one of the two and will move on if it’s rejected.
  • Many Mariners fans believe Bedard is not even worth Jones straight up, so imagine how they’ll feel if the Orioles extract significantly more.
  • The Orioles still want Jay Bruce from Cincinnati; otherwise they would ask for a ridiculous package of pretty much everyone else worth discussing in the Reds’ farm system.

Brian Roberts Deal Dead?

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A trusted emailer wrote in to tell me about a report today from Bruce Levine of ESPN Radio 1000.  According to Levine, Brian Roberts is no longer available.  The Orioles were apparently asking for Tyler Colvin or Felix Pie plus multiple pitchers, and the Cubs wouldn’t do it.

Levine says the Cubs may turn their attention to the Rangers’ Marlon Byrd or free agent Jon Lieber.

Reds To Stand Pat On Rotation?

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The Cincy Enquirer’s John Fay thinks the Reds are backing off on Erik Bedard as well as the second-tier free agent pitchers.  He’s talked to some baseball people on the topic and believes the price is too high for the Reds in any case.

Honestly they’re not in that bad of shape with Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo, Homer Bailey, Johnny Cueto, Edinson Volquez, and Matt Belisle.

Erik Bedard Mariners/Reds Rumors

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UPDATE, 1-10-08 at 5:38pm: Churchill has further updated his right-hand sidebar referencing the Reds possibility.  He says the O’s want Bailey, Votto, Cueto, and Edwin Encarnacion.  This is particularly lopsided, and pushing Melvin Mora back to Cincy wouldn’t make it any less so.  Mora may have negative value at this point.  Meanwhile John Fay says nothing new has happened on the Reds/Bedard front.

UPDATE, 1-09-08 at 9:07pm:  Rosenthal checks in with an update.  If the Mariners would give up Chris Tillman, they could have a done deal.  Baseball Prospectus’ Kevin Goldstein ranks the 19 year-old righty as Seattle’s second best prospect, giving him a number two starter ceiling.  Rosenthal confirms that Jones is the centerpiece, while George Sherrill and Carlos Triunfel are in play.

Meanwhile, Jason Churchill of Prospect Insider says on the right-hand sidebar of this page that the Reds might step up their offer in an attempt to make a late play.  He thinks they could give up Homer Bailey, Joey Votto, Johnny Cueto, and a fourth player, which would be absurd.

FROM 1-09-08 at 9:03am:

On Tuesday, both Ken Rosenthal and Jason Churchill carefully stated that the Orioles and Mariners were making progress on an Erik Bedard trade.  The deal would center around Adam Jones but include other good young players as well.  The Reds and Indians were named as other lingering Bedard suitors.

Larry Stone of the Seattle Times checked in on the Bedard situation today.  His MLB source agreed that talks between the Mariners and Orioles have heated up.  Andy MacPhail, however, would not use the words "heating up."  Stone goes on to mention that the Mets "could be players" for Bedard in addition to the Ohio teams.  Contrary to earlier reports, Stone was able to extract a quote from Ms GM Bill Bavasi that indicated Brandon Morrow was not off limits.

John Hickey admits that the rumors won’t die but doesn’t think the Mariners have made any actual progress on a deal.  He agrees that Morrow seems a bit more available than he did before.  Hickey suggests Josh Fogg could be a backup plan to Bedard for Seattle, noting that Fogg likes the idea of pitching in Safeco.  The Reds are also believed to have interest in Fogg.

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