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Angels After Tejada Again

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Yesterday, Ken Rosenthal said only that Miguel Tejada might become available, and that the Angels have a need.  Now another source, Joseph A. Reaves of The Arizona Republic, says the Halos are making another run at Tejada.

The Ervin Santana and Erick Aybar for Tejada trade last year was nixed by O’s owner Peter Angelos.  With Tejada apparently in the midst of a significant power decline (his SLG is down to .421), maybe the Orioles would be more open to the same trade. Tejada makes $12MM this year, $13MM in ’08, and $13MM in ’09.

Tejada would of course have to be convinced to play third base, and Bill Stoneman would have to finally pull the trigger on a deal involving good prospects.

Even if Tejada slugs around .450 this year, he’s still be far, far better than what the Angels have gotten from their third basemen.  Chone Figgins, Maicer Izturis, and others have combined for a .235/.280/.296 line at the position. 

Unless he’s included in the deal, a Tejada acquisition would leave top prospect Brandon Wood without a spot on the Angels until 2009, when Orlando Cabrera’s contract is up.

Orioles To Become Sellers?

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Jeff Zrebiec’s article for the Baltimore Sun this morning discusses the possibility that the Orioles start selling off veteran parts as we approach the trading deadline.  He specifically names Scott Williamson, Corey Patterson, Jay Gibbons, and Steve Trachsel as trade candidates.

In a related note, Gotham Baseball’s Mark Healey spoke to an industry source indicating that the Mets might be interested in trading for Williamson and Jay Payton.

Williamson makes $900K this year, with additional incentives based on his number of games.  Patterson, a Scott Boras client, makes $4.3MM and is a free agent after the season.  His terrible hitting this year will cost him what could’ve been a decent payday.  The Gibbons contract is ugly: $5MM this year, $5.7MM in ’08, and $6.2MM in ’09.  Trachsel earns $3.1MM this year plus a $4.75MM club option for ’08.  Finally, Payton makes $4.5MM this year and $5MM in ’08.

The Orioles could really go nuts if they wanted to, dumping off contracts and veterans.  Miguel Tejada, Melvin Mora, Kevin Millar, Ramon Hernandez, Danys Baez, Aubrey Huff, Chad Bradford, and Jamie Walker could be sent packing.  If they were to commit to a rebuilding year in ’08, the Orioles have players to fill almost any team’s needs.  Of course, trading all those vets would amount to admitting how many mistake contracts the Orioles have on the books.

Reds and Angels Discuss Dunn

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According to Ben Bolch of the L.A. Times, the Angels had preliminary discussions with the Reds regarding Adam Dunn.  Bolch’s source indicates that talks died because the Reds requested "a proven Major League starting pitcher, a Major League infielder – preferably a second baseman – and a top prospect."

Translation: Wayne Krivsky wanted Ervin Santana, Erick Aybar, and Brandon Wood.  OK, that sounds absurd.  And Aybar is a shortstop.  Negotiation is all about asking for more than you want and meeting at the right place, but I can’t figure out what the Reds asked for.  There’s no way they asked for the above with a straight face.  Maybe they wanted Santana and Howie Kendrick?  But then a top prospect on top?  C’mon now. Bolch’s source says the Halos wouldn’t trade Kendrick for Dunn straight up.

Santana plus one other useful player would be a fine bounty for Dunn, who will reach free agency after the season if he’s traded.

I have a correction, as I earlier wrote that Krivsky could simply exercise Dunn’s 2008 option and then retain freedom to trade him.  That’s not exactly true.  The situation, according to Ken Rosenthal:

"If the Reds keep Dunn and exercise his option after the season, he will gain full no-trade protection until next June 15. After that date, he could be traded to 10 clubs, but the list would be of his own choosing."

By the way, the Angels may turn their attention back to Miguel Tejada if they can’t get Dunn.  The Halos are again interested in him, according to the Riverside Press Enterprise.

The Resurrection Of Steve Trachsel?

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This article isn’t really about the Orioles trading Steve Trachsel this July; it’s more about how the starter nobody wanted is doing a fine job so far with a 3.82 ERA through 13 starts.

Even a cursory glance at the underlying stats reveal that Trachsel’s success this year is a house of cards.  First, he has an absurdly low strikeout rate of 2.75 per nine.  That’s right, he’s whiffed 23 in 75 innings.  Lowest strikeout rate in the Majors given 70 IP?  We have a winner, although Zach Duke and his 5.75 ERA is right there.

How about his control?  4.3 walks per nine is not good.  Home run rate?  Pretty good at 0.84 per nine, but not likely to last since he’s a flyball pitcher.

So what has Trachsel done well this year?  He’s allowed just eight hits per nine innings, in large part because of a .241 BABIP.  Previous Trachsel BABIPs: .299, .282, .280.  Normal stuff.  The .241 mark is fourth best in baseball, and has no chance of lasting.

The Orioles, owners of perhaps the biggest regression candidate in the game, would do very well to sell high on him right now.  Of course, they’ll wait until his ERA is over 5 instead.

Orioles To Make Amends With Boras?

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The Orioles have typically shied away from Scott Boras clients, but it stands to reason that yesterday’s selection of catcher Matt Wieters will re-open that door.  If the O’s are able to sign Wieters by the August 15th deadline, perhaps they’ll consider Boras clients this winter.

Here’s a list of Boras free agents for the winter of 2007-08:

Eric Gagne
Andruw Jones
Kyle Lohse
Greg Maddux
Corey Patterson
Kenny Rogers
Jeff Weaver
Brad Wilkerson
Byung-Hyun Kim

The Orioles will be one of the clubs in the running for a center fielder, as it doesn’t seem likely Corey Patterson will be around next year.  A Boras reconciliation would put Jones in play.  One could also envision the O’s adding a crafty veteran like the Gambler.

Stark’s Latest

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Hey everybody, I’m back from my trip.  I hope you enjoyed the posts from Tom and Jeff in the meantime.  California was actually colder than Chicago is right now, go figure.

Jayson Stark had a new column up at ESPN.com yesterday; let’s dissect the trade rumors.

  • Stark quotes scouts doubting whether Miguel Tejada’s power will ever return.  Over the last year and a half or so, the Orioles had all sorts of young players they could’ve acquired for Tejada.  Names like Felix Pie, Rich Hill, Brandon McCarthy, Ryan Sweeney, Ervin Santana, Erick Aybar have surfaced before.  Tejada earns $12MM this year, $13MM in ’08, and another $13MM in ’09.  That doesn’t sound too bad but one more year of declining power might change my opinion.
  • Seems the D-Rays would like to trade Elijah Dukes for a solid reliever.  A few teams might bow out because of Dukes’ past, but in my experience most don’t care.  I could see a match with the Padres, as they will need a center fielder if Mike Cameron leaves.
  • Stark says the hottest free agent could be "30 year-old Chunichi Dragons center fielder Kosuke Fukudome, who will be an unrestricted free agent."  I have learned from Mike Plugh that Fukudome is best in right field, but might be able to get by in center.  Plugh thinks Fukudome will get $12-15MM annually for three or four seasons.  Will Carroll has connected the Red Sox to Fukudome, while Phil Rogers suggested the Cubs.  This is going to be one of the bigger stories of the winter, I think.

Heyman On Teixeira

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With the trading deadline a mere two months away, we have to drum up some big names on which to speculate.  The advent of no-trade clauses and the valuation of young pitching seems to have resulted in fewer blockbusters.  Mark Teixeira seems to be this summer’s big name. 

We last speculated about Teixeira two weeks ago.  The Orioles and Nick Markakis were discussed, as well as the fit for the Angels.  The Nationals were seen as a long shot.  Jon Heyman has talked to some baseball execs on this topic, and he’s got more ideas.  Heyman adds the Red Sox, Yankees, and Dodgers to the mix as well.

The Yanks seemingly wouldn’t mind adding a major slugger at first base, and Heyman’s source doesn’t think they want Todd Helton.  But unless the Yanks revert to their old ways and trade The Franchise – Phil Hughes – a Teixeira acquisition seems unlikely.  The Yankees don’t have other elite pitching prospects.  They would have to go to more established players.  The Rangers don’t have a fit for Robinson Cano, though Chien-Ming Wang and his groundballing nature could work.

There’s no real reason for the Red Sox to give up the farm for Teixeira, unless they just want to keep him from the Yankees.  I don’t see it. 

The Dodgers I see as a strong player.  James Loney plus one of their top-rated starting pitching prospects and it’s a done deal.  I’m not sure Nomar can handle third base these days, but I don’t see that problem preventing a trade.   

Back to the Orioles – as much as Teixeira is dying to play for them, he’s not going to take a big discount and the price in young players will be high.  Then again, if the O’s could work something out involving Daniel Cabrera but not Markakis, that gamble could work for both clubs. 

The Angels are a fantastic fit, but when has Bill Stoneman ever made a trade like this?  I guess there’s a first time for everything.

Let’s not count out the Mets, Braves, or Tigers, either.

Bedard To Join Jays In 2010?

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Blue Jays play-by-play guy Jamie Campbell has a blog, and he’s got an interesting rumor up today.  Campbell speaks of a "prominent member of the Orioles organization" telling him to expect Erik Bedard in a Blue Jays uniform for the 2010 season.

Campbell points out Bedard’s Canadian roots and the Orioles’ inability to sign him long-term as factors.  He sees a possible rotation of Roy Halladay, A.J. Burnett, Bedard, and two youngsters in 2010.

Campbell notes that Burnett can opt out of his contract after the 2008 season.  He’d be walking away from three years and $36MM.  If he stays relatively healthy and keeps his ERA in the low 4s, you can bet he’ll top 3/36.

 

O’s Still After Chan Ho Park

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Just a small note from the bottom of a New York Post article today – the Mets and Orioles have had trade discussions regarding 34 year-old starter Chan Ho Park.

Before the season, the Mets signed Park for $600,000, with an additional $2.4MM in incentives based on innings pitched.  Park has struggled with the long ball in five Triple A starts, and it’s contributed to his 6.67 ERA.  Those looking for a silver lining can take solace in his 4.5 K/BB.  PECOTA calls for a 4.75 ERA for him this year, not bad at all as far as fifth starters go.  However, the AL East is a harsh environment.

Odalis Perez is the other guy said to be on Baltimore’s radar for the fifth starter vacancy.

 

Perrotto’s Latest

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John Perrotto of Baseball Prospectus has quickly become another fine source for trade rumors.  Some highlights from his latest column:

  • The Twins would surrender a solid arm – maybe Jesse Crain, Juan Rincon, or Scott Baker – in return for a right-handed hitter.  My own speculation: perhaps Wayne Krivsky, looking to stabilize his bullpen, would trade Edwin Encarnacion for Rincon.  Rincon has been one of the best setup men in baseball for the past four years.  On the other hand, Baker could really flourish in the National League and Kyle Lohse may leave via free agency after the season.  Terry Ryan might want a more proven, reliable bat though.  Buster Olney throws out Morgan Ensberg’s name in his blog today.
  • Some clubs already have center fielder Torii Hunter on the radar: the Red Sox, White Sox, Cardinals, and Rangers.  I think there is no doubt the Rangers go in for one of the "name" center fielders this winter.  I can see the Red Sox testing the waters but it would seem odd to block Jacoby Ellsbury for four or five years.  Hunter is making the contract year argument, hitting .324/.358/.618 in 35 games.  His previous career high in slugging was .524 in ’02.
  • Perrotto confirms the finding of Michael Gluskin – Odalis Perez and Chan Ho Park are two names on the Orioles’ target list of starting pitchers.  The O’s might have found some relief in the shrewd Jeremy Guthrie pickup – his last two starts against the Devil Rays and Red Sox were excellent.   
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