Rays’ Kazmir May Be Available
The week in hot stove kicks off with a bang: Joel Sherman of the New York Post has a source saying the Devil Rays might listen to offers for ace lefty Scott Kazmir. Kazmir turns 24 in January and carries a 3.64 career ERA despite pitching in the AL East. He’s been particularly tough on the Red Sox (2.66 ERA in 101 innings). You have to think that if the Yankees are entertaining making an offer for Johan Santana, they’d consider Kazmir as well if the Rays would deal within the division.
Sherman notes that Kazmir is under contract for three years as opposed to just one for Santana, which could equate the two pitchers in the marketplace. Erik Bedard, under control for two years, has to be in that group of elite, possibly available southpaws as well. Sherman believes the Rays would seek "multiple high-end pitchers" for Kazmir, who is entering arbitration for the first time this winter. The Yankees could offer a package starting with Phil Hughes, but the Mets don’t seem to have the goods. It would take a pitcher of that nature – Hughes, Yovani Gallardo, Clay Buchholz. Otherwise, why would the Rays consider it?
Sherman also echoes the surprising notion that Tim Lincecum could be had for the right bat. He speculates that the Giants could pursue Carl Crawford or Delmon Young as the return. Hey, our Delmon speculation is catching on!
Sherman indicates that the Twins may be compelled to hold onto Santana, afraid of fan backlash if they also lose Torii Hunter. Meanwhile, another Santana, Ervin, might be had for a bat if the Angels can’t sign Alex Rodriguez. Sherman’s sources say any club in the A-Rod sweepstakes will move slowly in the market because his contract would dictate the team’s available budget.
Also notable from Sherman’s rumor-packed column: teams may wait for the Mitchell Report to come out before engaging in serious talks for Miguel Tejada. I’ve read speculation that MLB could release this report soon as a way of limiting free agent spending. Also, isn’t it about time for Jose Canseco’s next book, which supposedly has "other stuff" on Alex Rodriguez?
Rangers Rumors: DeJesus, Lamb, Millar
Evan Grant writes for the Dallas Morning News, but he posted this column at night. Go figure. He’s got some new info regarding the Rangers.
- As you know, the Rangers have had difficulty finding a long-term center fielder. That’s the main focus of this offseason. The team has already shown interest in Torii Hunter and Aaron Rowand, the top center fielders available. Other free agents such as Andruw Jones and Mike Cameron appear to be in play as well. Grant’s trade candidates: Coco Crisp, David DeJesus, Mark Kotsay, and Carlos Beltran. We’ve speculated on DeJesus to Atlanta in the past. With DeJesus signed cheaply through 2011 and the market at the position robust this winter, it might make sense for Dayton Moore to wait a year to shop him aggressively.
- Grant adds that Jon Daniels is considering some affordable options for first base. They’ve already talked to Mike Lamb‘s agent and like Kevin Millar as well. Lamb came up through the Rangers’ system but was traded to the Yankees in ’04. Millar is under contract for ’08 but it’s in the $3-4MM range and the Orioles should be open to a trade. Grant says Ben Broussard could pique the Rangers’ interest if he’s non-tendered.
- Grant concludes with five Rangers whose names will be bandied about in trade talks: Gerald Laird, Vicente Padilla, Joaquin Arias, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, and Nelson Cruz. Salty’s not being shopped but Grant expects teams to ask. He proposes some kind of bad contract swap for Padilla – Jason Giambi, Richie Sexson, or Adam Eaton are named. I still think it’s funny the way Padilla crawled away from the brawl he started this year.
Odds and Ends: Hunter, A-Rod, Bedard
Sunday morning minor rumor collection…
- There’s always some skepticism from readers regarding Charley Walters rumors. Nonetheless I’ll report that he names the Nationals, White Sox, Braves, Yankees, and Dodgers as teams that will bid for Torii Hunter. I don’t see the Braves getting involved at $15MM per. And are the Dodgers ready to move Juan Pierre to left field already? The other clubs named seem reasonable.
- As expected, the Cardinals interviewed Chris Antonetti for their open GM position. No doubt it’s an attractive position but you have to wonder what kind of autonomy he’d have with Tony La Russa around.
- Larry LaRue makes the case for the Mariners tendering a contract to Horacio Ramirez. He also notes that Jose Guillen is as good as gone and the Ms won’t consider A-Rod.
- Speaking of that guy, Bill Price suggests the Mets should sign him and move David Wright to first base. Carlos Delgado I suppose would be a very expensive pinch-hitter in 2008.
- Nick Cafardo expects the Orioles to shop Miguel Tejada this winter, which would surprise no one. But he’s also hearing that Erik Bedard could be available. Trades of either might be unpopular with the fanbase. The trade market for starters could be hopping if Johan Santana, Bedard, and C.C. Sabathia are made available.
- Joel Sherman says Koji Uehara is a free agent, but we have heard differently. Anyway, the success of Hideki Okajima may create a minor bidding war for Hitoki Iwase.
Needs and Luxuries: Baltimore Orioles
Here’s a look at Baltimore’s current setup for 2008.
C – Ramon Hernandez
1B – Kevin Millar
2B – Brian Roberts
SS – Miguel Tejada
3B – Melvin Mora
LF – Jay Gibbons
CF – Jay Payton
RF – Nick Markakis
DH – Aubrey Huff
SP – Erik Bedard
SP – Jeremy Guthrie
SP – Daniel Cabrera
SP – Adam Loewen
SP – Brian Burres/Garrett Olson/Hayden Penn
Setup/Closer: Jamie Walker/Chad Bradford
Needs
Take a look at that starting lineup again. The Orioles are a train wreck, and need to be blown to smithereens and rebuilt. Their need is pretty easy to assess – they need cheap, young, talented players. Sure, all teams need those, but the O’s need to abandon any pretense of winning in 2008.
The ’07 Orioles were below average in every regard. The long-term Orioles need corner infielders, a left fielder, and a center fielder at minimum. If you don’t think they can win in by 2009, then they need middle infielders too.
The O’s need another reliable starter to complement the Bedard-Guthrie tandem. They need to be patient with Cabrera, who at least set a career high in innings and starts. They need some homegrown or otherwise cheap relievers with a pulse.
Most of all, the Orioles need fiscal responsibility. Hopefully Andy MacPhail will bring it.
Luxuries
The Orioles have frontline talent in Tejada, Bedard, Roberts, Markakis, and Matt Wieters. The last two are cornerstones.
Tejada is not a part of the long-term future. Despite signs of decline, he can still be dealt for a nice bevy of young players. Maybe not a Teixeira-sized bounty, but two quality players. The Tigers, Phillies, Red Sox, White Sox, Blue Jays, Angels, and half of the NL Central ought to be interested. Tejada is the team’s most tradeable asset and he absolutely must be cashed in this winter.
The O’s are at a crossroads with Bedard and Roberts. They’re locked in through 2009, and would have a lot of value on the trade market. The Orioles have to at least listen on these guys. Bedard is going to cost a king’s ransom to sign long-term, and Roberts may prefer to leave for a winner.
Then there’s the veteran riff-raff. The Orioles have tons of expendable veterans with moderate to questionable trade value: Hernandez, Millar, Mora, Gibbons, Payton, Huff, Walker, and Bradford. Gibbons and Mora are un-tradeable, but the rest should be swapped out for the most interesting 0-3 players available. The Orioles must remain open to eating salary if they can in effect purchase some quality prospects.
Orioles Claim Novoa; More Ex-Cubs To Come?
As far as historians can tell, the Ex-Cub Factor curse was broken in 2001 by the Diamondbacks. If you’re not familiar, the Ex-Cub Factor says that a team with three or more ex-Cubs cannot win the World Series. Regardless, the Indians are in decent shape as they have only two (Joe Borowski and Kenny Lofton). I think the Rockies only have LaTroy Hawkins.
The Chicago Tribune’s Paul Sullivan recently noted that the Orioles are stocking up on ex-Cubs, the latest being nondescript reliever Roberto Novoa. Former Cubs president and GM Andy MacPhail has already added three to the four that were previously on the roster.
I mention all of this because of Sullivan’s last line, that MacPhail might take a look at free agents Kerry Wood and Michael Barrett this winter. Wood I can see – he fits in with most teams at the right price as an intriguing yet high-risk swingman. As for Barrett – perhaps the O’s would pursue him on a bargain one-year deal if they manage to trade Ramon Hernandez. Hernandez makes $7.5MM in ’08, $8MM in ’09, and probably a $1MM buyout in ’10. So, $16.5MM over the next two years. If the O’s pay $5MM or so, teams like the Mets, Yankees, Rockies, or Marlins could be interested.
Cardinals Have Work To Do
Joe Strauss has had several insightful articles lately about the future of the Cardinals. Let’s discuss.
- The Cardinals have $83.8MM committed to 12 players for 2008. Even worse, they don’t know what they’re going to get out of Scott Rolen, Jim Edmonds, Chris Carpenter, Juan Encarnacion, and Mark Mulder. They are spending $45MM on those five and may get very little production.
- Next year’s payroll may approach $115MM on the high end, but that doesn’t mean the Cards have $30MM to burn. Their 0-3 guys will earn roughly $5MM in aggregate, and the arbitration-eligible group may run another $5MM even if a few are cut loose. So I’m thinking more like $20MM to burn, and Walt Jocketty will have to stretch that money pretty far.
- The Cardinals need a power hitter, two starters, and a shortstop. Tony La Russa, if he returns, won’t be "going young."
- Joel Pineiro could be one of the starters, but if the Cards view him as a cheap #5 they’re going to be disappointed. He’ll get paid.
- An earlier Strauss article has a couple of rumors of note. We learned that the Cards were fairly close to signing Miguel Batista last winter and almost traded Anthony Reyes to the Phillies this summer.
Here’s what I see happening this winter. The Cards will fill the rotation spots with one mid-level signing and one cheaper wild card type guy. I could see a Carlos Silva being paired with a Matt Clement. Randy Wolf could fill the wild card role if the Dodgers won’t have him back.
It might make sense to fill the shortstop hole and need for a power bat in one fell swoop. On the surface it seems like Miguel Tejada would fit the bill and Edgar Renteria wouldn’t, though Renteria outslugged Tejada this year. Regardless I expect the Cardinals to make an aggressive push for one of them (Larry Borowsky of Viva El Birdos got me thinking along these lines).
Could A-Rod Save the O’s?
Update: Beat writer Jeff Zrebiec reports that yesterday Miguel Tejada told O’s President of Baseball Operations Andy McPhail, "I don’t care about changing positions if we’re going to be a winner, and I want to be on a team that is going to compete and win." That is a change of tune from the once stubborn shortstop. Orioles Manager Dave Trembley also said, "I fully expect that he’ll be a major part of this team next season."
The Orioles pitchers have been going the extra mile to make Alex Rodriguez feel at home in Camden Yards this weekend, writes Peter Schmuck. Schmuck doesn’t add too much to the notion; however, he does suggest that, for a team at the mercy of indecision – do we sign big names or rebuild from within? – Alex Rodriguez, should he opt out of his contract, is one apparent solution.
The O’s need desperately to revive their franchise and A-Rod could certainly do that. A new long term contract for Arod will have him chasing baseball’s greatest records with whom he signs. Meanwhile, Miguel Tejada will either be moved to 3B or another team. Considering his decline in defense, productivity, and attitude it seems the Orioles should lower their demands and trade him this offseason. That would open up an obvious hole at shortstop, a spot once celebrated by Cal Ripken, and an opportunity that could entice Rodriguez and save the Orioles.
That said, I’m not sure the O’s could afford a potential $30MM player. They have a total payroll of $93.5MM in 2007, already up 20% from 2006, and at an all-time high. If they deal Tejada, it’s probable they swallow some of his $13MM/year. The departure of Benson and Wright free up another $14MM. If they could void Jay Gibbons‘ contract, they’d be looking in the ballpark of $30MM before arbitration for Erik Bedard and others, various departures, etc. It seems probable they would have to again increase payroll to afford A-Rod.
Posted by: Nat Boyle
The Miguel Tejada Situation
Jeff Zrebiec, who does a fine job covering the Orioles for the Baltimore Sun, has a thorough dissection of the Miguel Tejada situation. To sum it up:
- The general sentiment within the organization seems to be that Tejada has slipped significantly on defense. There’s talk of moving him to third base and Melvin Mora back to the outfield. It seems that Tejada would be open to this. As we saw with Alfonso Soriano, he really doesn’t have a choice.
- Zrebiec says that trade rumors will again swirl around Tejada this winter. He didn’t want to move to third base for the Angels; has anything changed? Tejada again has no choice here because he does not have a no-trade clause. He makes $13MM in ’08 and the same in ’09.
- Tejada’s OPS is down to.800, lowest it’s been since ’03. It’s high time to trade him; Zrebiec talked to some execs who think the Orioles can still get two high-ceiling prospects.
- If the Orioles want Tejada at third, I imagine an acquiring team would too. Conveniently, the free agent market for 3Bs is weak beyond A-Rod and Lowell. The Tigers, Twins, Angels, Phillies, Astros, Brewers (Braun to left), Dodgers, Giants, or Diamondbacks could look to use him there. The Cubs and White Sox seem more likely to try him at shortstop. Tons of options here.
Could Orioles Void Gibbons’ Contract?
Sean Welsh of the Baltimore Examiner has a source indicating that the Orioles may try to void the remaining two years and $11.9MM on Jay Gibbons‘ contract based on allegations of steroid use.
While the O’s wouldn’t mind getting out from the lousy contract they signed, it seems highly unlikely. There’s no precedent for it; the Yankees wanted out of the Giambi contract and failed. There’s no language in Gibbons’ contract about steroids. He never failed a test that we know of. And the original SI.com report doesn’t say Gibbons used steroids, just that he received them.
If somehow the Orioles did succeed, perhaps the Blue Jays would look into the same regarding Troy Glaus. He’ll make $23.5MM over 2008-09 and has a full no-trade clause. The Angels could try to void the Gary Matthews Jr. contract. Perhaps if the Mitchell Report names certain players, that will carry enough weight to void contracts. It’d still be tough to get past the Players Union though.
Tigers Trade/Signing Speculation
Lynn Henning of the Detroit News posted a Q&A yesterday, giving his informed opinion on the Tigers’ various hot stove situations. Below are some highlights.
- Henning expects Kenny Rogers to be with the Tigers in 2008, and I think that’s the general sentiment around baseball. Rogers has already stated that it’s the Tigers or retirement in 2008. I’ll guess a $6MM base salary plus incentives to make $10MM possible.
- Henning sees the Tigers picking up Ivan Rodriguez‘s $13MM option for ’08, for lack of a better option. Given the $3MM buyout it’s kind of a like a one-year, $10MM deal. Ken Rosenthal opined back on August 11th that the Tigers would choose the buyout, but he also felt the team was "almost certain" to exercise the option when discussing it in April.
- The price for Miguel Tejada – $26MM over two years plus a bevy of young players – is considered too high. I’m not sure where the Tigers payroll will be in ’08; they opened ’07 with a team-record $95MM mark. Based on my back of the napkin estimates, the Tigers will have to pay out a net $7.5MM extra based on escalating salaries of players already under contract. Contracts for Carlos Guillen, Magglio Ordonez, and Jeremy Bonderman will contribute to a $19MM increase, while the losses of Todd Jones, Sean Casey, and Neifi Perez will save the team $11.5MM. The net effect is the $7.5MM increase, which doesn’t account for replacements for the players lost.
- One minor offseason acquisition for Detroit could be a left-handed hitting outfielder who can play first base. Luis Gonzalez, Mark Sweeney, or Darin Erstad could fit the bill.