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Boston Globe Trade Rumors

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Aside from the aforementioned Roger Clemens tidbit, Nick Cafardo’s recent Boston Globe column is packed with interesting info.  A brief summary follows.

Cafardo believes the Red Sox will add one more reliever and then sort out the closer situation in spring.  The Cordero, Lidge, and Gonzalez talks didn’t go anywhere.  The idea of returning to Jon Papelbon, on the other hand, makes a lot of sense and isn’t out of the question.  Failing that, Julian Tavarez could be the favorite.  Shaky alternatives (Brendan Donnelly, Mike Timlin, Craig Hansen, Manny Delcarmen) abound.

A source told Cafardo that Matt Clement wants to prove everyone wrong and could be throwing by springtime.  Maybe he just wants to cash in after his walk year.  Clement had rotator cuff surgery at the end of September.

Rodrigo Lopez has gotten interest from five teams.  A move to St. Louis or somewhere like that could help him quite a bit.

Carl Everett and Sammy Sosa may need to play in the independent leagues to convince some team to give them a shot.  Two of baseball’s finest role models, right there.

Mark Mulder is still looking at the Cards, Rangers, and Indians for his options.  The Tribe has offered two years and $8MM with another $7MM in incentives.  The Rangers offer less than $8MM guaranteed but a possible package of $18.75MM instead of $15MM. 

The Giants would still like to recruit David Wells despite their signing of Barry Zito.  Such a move would push Jonathan Sanchez to the bullpen.  The Phillies, Padres, Diamondbacks, and Mets may also be interested in Wells.

Orioles Still Talking To Craig Wilson, Aubrey Huff

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According to Roch Kubatko of the Baltimore Sun, the Orioles are still in talks with the representatives for Craig Wilson and Aubrey Huff.  I assume they only want one of the two, as a team can only hold so many 1B/DH/OF types.

The O’s have previously been linked to Adam LaRoche, Ben Broussard, Richie Sexson, Chris Shelton, and Carlos Pena.  They’ve also attended Shannon Stewart’s workout; there’s speculation he’d be limited to a DH-type role as well.

Adam LaRoche For Brian Roberts?

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The AP is reporting that the Braves and Orioles have discussed a straight-up swap of Adam LaRoche for Brian Roberts.  They further indicate that Mark Loretta’s agent has spoken to Baltimore; he could replace Roberts at 2B.

LaRoche’s power numbers would benefit from a switch to Camden Yards, though not significantly.  Turner Field suppresses home runs for left-handed hitters by about 11% while Camden suppresses them by around 4%.  The figures come courtesy of the Bill James Handbook.

LaRoche turned 27 recently and offers three full years of service time. Roberts turned 29 this year and has two years of service time left.  LaRoche made $420,000 in ’06 while Roberts made $3.075MM.  According to WARP, LaRoche was worth 6.2 wins in 2006 and Roberts 4.7.  Fan favorite or not, the O’s should swap Roberts for LaRoche if given the chance. 

Orioles Sign Jay Payton

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Last night, the Orioles reached a verbal agreement with 34 year-old Jay Payton to man left field.  It’s a very Orioles move – miss out on all the big fish, gotta sign some kind of warm body.  The deal is for two years and $9.75MM.

While that may be an OK price, this is left field in the American League we’re talking about.  You have to hit .280/.347/.449 to earn a C grade.  Payton hasn’t posted an OBP that high since Colorado in ’03; he may be capable of slugging .449.

This type of signing frustrates me, as it doesn’t indicate any sort of coherent plan.  At least with the Cubs, they are going all in for 2007.  They might not have the right hand with which to do so but they have made a decision and are acting on it.  That’s rare in Cubdom.  But the O’s remain the same – a mix of promising youth and mediocre vets that will probably earn them fourth place.

Baltimore’s outfield is now set with Payton in left, Corey Patterson in center, and Nick Markakis in right.  Overall, it looks decent.

Baltimore Orioles Rumors

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Jeff Zrebiec of the Baltimore Sun has a slew of Orioles rumors for us this morning.

A trade has been discussed that would send Hayden Penn and Brian Roberts to Atlanta for Marcus Giles and Adam LaRoche.  The Orioles love Roberts, though, so it’s a long shot.  The Braves are pushing for him.  Tim Hudson could be part of a package as well.

Zrebiec calls the O’s a long shot for Luis Gonzalez with something near a one-year, $7MM offer.  Rosenthal calls it the best offer, though Gonzo may not accept it because of geographical preference.

A Miguel Tejada possibility is raised.  It’s also mentioned that the Mariners want Erik Bedard for Richie Sexson.  Shooting for the stars I guess.

The Orioles like the idea of importing Rocco Baldelli, but would hesitate to send both Adam Loewen and Chris Ray to Tampa Bay.

Teams Interested In Rodrigo Lopez

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Rodrigo Lopez is suddenly a hot property.  The O’s talked to at least five teams looking for starting pitching.  The Brewers and Mariners have inquired specifically about Lopez.

Lopez will turn 31 later this month.  He’s a 200 inning back-rotation guy with good control; he probably belongs in the NL.  He earned $3.75MM in 2006 and will be a free agent after the 2007 season.

Other Oriole tidbits from MLB.com’s Spencer Fordin:

Baltimore met with Doug Melvin of the Brewers, presumably to discuss outfielders Kevin Mench and Geoff Jenkins.  Chris Shelton could be another target.

Negotiations with Luis Gonzalez are ongoing; Jay Payton and Cliff Floyd seem unlikely. 

Pitchers on the move

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Jason Schmidt has been offered $45 million over three years to join the Cubs.  If that offer has been leaked already, $60M/4 seems within the realm of possibility.  Strangely, Schmidt has already said he’s not interested in the East Coast–you’d think he’d wait until Cashman made an offer and drove up his price before saying no.  Once Schmidt signs, it’ll be fun to watch Scott Boras conduct the sure-to-be-insane bidding for Barry Zito.

Some team (to be announced tonight) won the bidding for Kei Igawa for $25 million.  Hanshin has accepted.  That’s the second largest posting fee ever–somebody must think Igawa is pretty good, definitely on the high side of the typical #3/#4 projection he’s gotten.  I’m guessing it’s not the Cubs, or we wouldn’t be hearing so much about the other pitchers they’re after.  That leaves plenty of other possibilities, though.

The Baltimore Orioles are continuing their quest to build the most expensive bullpen of all time: Chad Bradford is close to a three-year deal with them.  Anybody think it’s a little odd that the O’s traded Chris Britton for a reclamation project and are now probably spending about $8M a year for Bradford and Danys Baez?  (Odd?  Yes.  In character? Absolutely.)

And, this just in: the O’s are also adding Scott Williamson.  He’s cheap–only $900K for the year.  Oddly enough, he could be the best of their new additions.  I’m a little surprised nobody else was willing to go higher for him on a one-year deal.

Many of you have emailed me about a possible Angels-White Sox trade involving Ervin Santana and Chone Figgins for Freddy Garcia and Joe Crede.   As Rotoworld points out, this could be a recycled rumor; regardless, Kenny Williams says no.  And there’s no way Bill Stoneman deals Santana for Garcia without getting a lot more in return.  Five years of a good pitcher under the team’s control for one year of Garcia?  Right.

By Jeff Sackmann

Wolf, Baez to new homes

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Looks like Randy Wolf is about to become a Dodger.  Apparently LA is set to sign him to a one-year deal with an option for 2008; I’d guess it’s in the $6-7M range.  The same article speculates that Greg Maddux is looking for a raise on his $9M salary from last year–a two-year deal for Mike Mussina money.  I guess I didn’t realize quite what a stud he was after the trade last year, but I don’t know who’s going to give him that kind of cash.  I’ve been a Maddux fan since the first time he was with the Cubs, but if you had the choice between Maddux at $22.5M/2 and Ted Lilly at $27M/3, isn’t that a no-brainer?  Then again, we don’t know that Lilly won’t get more than that.

Also, Danys Baez looks to be headed to Baltimore.  The Orioles seem to think that, whatever their problems were last year, they can be solved with a very expensive bullpen.  It’s a three-year deal, according to the Baltimore Sun, and I suppose it could open up the possibility that Chris Ray could be traded for something that the Orioles really need.  Like, oh, I don’t know, an 1B/OF/DH type who can hit  above replacement level?  (Otherwise known as "the Fahey line.")

By Jeff Sackmann

Carlos Lee Sweepstakes

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The Houston Chronicle provides the latest update on the chase for Carlos Lee.  It suggests that Tim Purpura could ultimately decide to give El Caballo an Aramis Ramirez-type contract–5 years, $73 million.  Right now, the deal the Astros have offered Lee is believed to be 5 years for $60 million.

The Chron has a source saying that an AL team (gotta be the Orioles) has floated a $70M/5 deal.  It sounds like the Phillies haven’t made an offer; maybe Pat Gillick will realize that signing Lee just to replace Pat Burrell would be a bizarre waste of time.  As it is, it seems like the Astros are banking on getting some kind of hometown discount, while the Orioles are hoping that Carlos wants to play for a mediocre team for the remainder of his productive career.

Then again, it’s always possible that the Cubs will sweep in and sign Lee and Julio Lugo this weekend.  Once you spend $200M, what’s another $70M?

UPDATE: Roch Kubatko reports that the Orioles are willing to go six years, for between $80 and $90 million.  Carlos loves his cattle ranch, but the gap between the O’s and the ’Stros seems to be widening.

By Jeff Sackmann

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