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Offseason Outlook: Baltimore Orioles

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With the Orioles’ first AL East title and first ALCS appearance since 1997, it was a season to remember in Baltimore.  Before following up, however, the O’s will have to take care of quite a bit of in-house business.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via Matt Swartz)

Contract Options

Free Agents

The Orioles answered one of their biggest offseason questions before the ALCS even began, as the club inked J.J. Hardy to a three-year, $40MM extension.  In keeping Hardy in the fold, the Orioles not only ensure their own stability at shortstop, but they also keep a very sought-after player away from potential rivals; the Yankees, for one, were rumored to be interested in Hardy’s services.

With over two-thirds of the roster due for arbitration raises or facing contract options, it’s no surprise that Orioles plan to increase their payroll for 2015.  What remains to be seen is if that spending increase leaves room for new players, or simply reflects the fact that key contributors like Chris Tillman, Miguel Gonzalez and Zach Britton are no longer making minimum salaries.

I’d guess that Tillman will be approached about contract extensions this winter, as Dan Duquette will look to achieve some cost-certainty in future years by locking up a pitcher who looks like a key part of Baltimore’s future.  The O’s had a similarly large arbitration class last winter, and they responded by trading the biggest projected contract (Jim Johnson) to free up payroll space and discussing extensions with the two players (Chris Davis, Matt Wieters) who projected as long-term pieces.  In hindsight, the team benefited by not finalizing those extensions given how Wieters missed most of the season with injury and Davis took a big step back after his mammoth 2013 campaign.  I’d expect one-year deals for both players in their third and final arb-eligible seasons, putting Wieters and Davis on pace for free agency in the 2015-16 offseason.

Now that Evan Meek has been outrighted off the Orioles’ 40-man roster, that leaves Baltimore with 11 players arbitration-eligible players this offseason.  The only possible non-tender candidate could be Alejandro De Aza, and even he may be retained given the unsettled nature of Baltimore’s 2015 outfield.  Matt Swartz projects the O’s will spend $56.9MM on these 11 players; add that to the roughly $43MM owed to six players on multiyear contracts and the $9MM total required for Wei-Yin Chen and Darren O’Day’s options and the Orioles are now in the $109MM range for 19 players.  That’s already more than the $107.46MM the club spent on payroll in 2014, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts.

The Orioles have already addressed their four outstanding club options.  Chen and O’Day, as expected, saw their options exercised while Nick Hundley’s $5MM option was declined (Caleb Joseph is the cheaper backup catcher option for Wieters next season).  The O’s also declined their half of Nick Markakis’ $17.5MM option, and as MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently noted in his Markakis’ Free Agent Profile, declining the option makes it unlikely that the team will extend Markakis a qualifying offer.

In short, the long-time Oriole will be one of the most sought-after outfield bats on the free agent market.  If Markakis indeed doesn’t have a qualifying offer tied to him, Adams projects him to receive a four-year, $48MM deal.  By contrast, the O’s will make a qualifying offer to Nelson Cruz, which should diminish the slugger’s market a bit, though not to the same level as last winter, when Baltimore was able to sign Cruz to a one-year, $8MM deal that turned into a major bargain.  It wouldn’t be a surprise if Cruz finds at least double that amount on his next contract, netting him in the $16MM average annual value range.

Baltimore seems to have made some solid progress in talks with Markakis and at least touched base with Cruz earlier this season, so the club is fully exploring the possibility of re-signing both players.  If they feel they have a legitimate shot at bringing both back next year, another payroll-cutting move (such as non-tendering De Aza) would likely be forthcoming.

If both outfielders sign elsewhere, then the O’s have at least one ready corner outfield replacement ready in Steve Pearce.  His big 2014 breakout ensures he’ll find an everyday role somewhere on the diamond and he has experience in both LF and RF.  Delmon Young is also hitting free agency and could be brought back at a modest price; he could form a righty-lefty platoon with De Aza or David Lough in left field.  Lough and De Aza would also expect to see playing time in the outfield even if Cruz or Markakis returns, as either veteran (Cruz especially) would see time at the DH spot.

Pearce’s positional flexibility and the lack of a full-time DH gives the Orioles some options if Cruz and Markakis indeed leave.  This is just my speculation, but Adam LaRoche or Michael Cuddyer would be fits as solid veteran bats who can likely be had on short-term contracts.  Both players would fill everyday roles, which would allow Buck Showalter to employ more platoon depth elsewhere should Pearce come back down to earth.  If the Orioles wanted to go the full-time DH route, they could try to sign Victor Martinez, though his desired four-year contract might be lengthier than the O’s are willing to commit to a 35-year-old.

Around the infield, the O’s seem set with Manny Machado at 3B, Hardy at SS, Jonathan Schoop at 2B and Davis at 1B, though Hardy is the only one who doesn’t have some uncertainty hanging over him headed into next year.  Machado has shown he’s one of the game’s top young stars when healthy, though he has undergone two significant knee surgeries in as many years.  Schoop flashed some nice defense in his first full big league season, though he’ll be expected to show more at the plate than last year’s .598 OPS in 481 plate appearances.

As for Davis, he went from a 53-homer performance in 2013 to a below-average 94 wRC+ in 2014 and also missed the end of the season after being suspended 25 games for Adderall usage.  Davis might be Baltimore’s biggest x-factor for 2015; if he returns to form, the slugger would more than make up for the possible loss of Cruz or Markakis.  Then again, for the Orioles to re-sign those two, Davis could become a trade chip in order to free up payroll space.  They’d be selling low on Davis, though the first baseman’s 2013 campaign is still fresh enough in everyone’s mind that he’ll draw interest.

The Orioles boasted one of the league’s top bullpens last season, and most of the principals are set to return with Britton closing and O’Day and Tommy Hunter as setup men.  The team paid a heavy price (left-handed prospect Eduardo Rodriguez) to obtain Andrew Miller from the Red Sox at the All-Star break, and while Miller pitched very well down the stretch, the high price he’ll command in free agency will likely bring his stint in Baltimore to an end.  It wouldn’t be a surprise to see the O’s pursue a veteran reliever for depth purposes.

Starting pitching could be the biggest area of surplus for Baltimore since the club has six rotation options (Tillman, Gonzalez, Chen, Bud Norris, Ubaldo Jimenez and Kevin Gausman), top prospect Dylan Bundy on his way back from Tommy John surgery and prospects Mike Wright and Tim Berry knocking on the Major League door for depth purposes.  Tillman is the nominal ace, Jimenez is probably unmovable due to his big contract and poor performance last year, and Gausman and Bundy are untouchable as the future of the staff.

This leaves Gonzalez, Chen and Norris as possible trade chips — all solid, unspectacular pitchers with team control (Chen and Norris one year, Gonzalez three years) remaining.  Norris is the most expensive, projected to earn $8.7MM in his final arbitration-eligible year.  While that’s a reasonable salary for an innings-eater, it might also make him the most expendable for a team that’s looking to free up payroll space.

To speculate about a few possible trade partners looking for pitching, the Rockies and Pirates have a number of young outfielders to offer if the O’s were looking for external solutions to replace Cruz or Markakis.  If a bigger-name solution was explored, the Braves could have Justin Upton and Jason Heyward on the market this offseason, though both players are only contracted through 2015 and Atlanta would require more in return than just one of the Gonzalez/Chen/Norris trio.  Such teams as the Cubs, Twins, Diamondbacks, Mariners, Rangers and Angels are among the teams who could also be looking to trade for pitching this winter.

It seems contradictory to predict a surprise, yet given Duquette’s track record in Baltimore, expect him to make one under-the-radar acquisition (a la Chen, Gonzalez, Pearce, Young, Jason Hammel or Nate McLouth) that ends up paying big dividends for the Orioles.  Making the most of unheralded acquisitions and raising the roster’s talent floor have been big reasons why the O’s are 274-212 with a pair of playoff appearances during Duquette’s regime.  Much of the Orioles’ offseason will be shaped by what Cruz and Markakis do, but the club is still in position to contend in 2015.

Orioles Discussing Four-Year Deal With Nick Markakis

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The Orioles and Nick Markakis have been discussing a new contract in the range of four years for the free agent outfielder, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com reports.  “The two sides have been talking for weeks” about a new deal, and Kubatko believes the two sides will reach an agreement to keep Markakis in Baltimore.  Kubatko thinks a deal will come “in the not-too-distant future,” though the Orioles’ exclusive negotiating window with Markakis and all their free agents ends at 11pm CT on Monday night.

After signing J.J. Hardy to an extension before the start of the ALCS, it would be quite a coup for the O’s if they were able to lock up another of their major in-house free agents before letting him hit the open market.  MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently predicted that Markakis (as long as the O’s didn’t tag him with a qualifying offer) would find a four-year, $48MM deal this winter, so the reported deal length would seem to be a fit, provided that the two sides can agree on the finances.

Baltimore has already declined its half of Markakis’ $17.5MM mutual option for 2015, which was something of a surprising move since it cost the team a $2MM buyout; the O’s could’ve simply exercised their side of the option since Markakis was clearly going to decline his side in order to hit the open market.  Declining the option could make more sense, however, if the Orioles thought they were close to a new contract anyways, making that $2MM almost a kind of makeshift signing bonus.

AL East Notes: Maddon, O’s, Headley, BoSox

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Alan Nero, Joe Maddon’s agent, discussed how his client left the Rays for the Cubs in an interview with Jim Bowden and Jim Duquette (audio link) on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM.  Nero negotiated with the Rays for five or six days before Maddon opted out of his contract, a decision Maddon reached since Tampa didn’t want to make him one of baseball’s five highest-paid managers.  Maddon was willing to take below-market value to stay but the Rays’ offer was “so far from reality that it just didn’t make sense” for Maddon to accept, according to Nero.  Theo Epstein wouldn’t speak to Maddon until he had written proof of the opt-out and permission from the Commissioner’s office, and Nero considers it “a bit insulting” that the Rays would suspect tampering took place.

Here’s some more from around the AL East…

  • Rival teams could be interested in the Orioles’ catching depth, MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko opines.  Despite the presence of Caleb Joseph, Steve Clevenger and a number of young backstops in the minors, the team is still interested in bringing back veteran Nick Hundley.  Kubatko speculates that Chris Tillman’s improved performance with Hundley behind the plate could be a factor in why Hundley could return.
  • Mutual interest exists between the Yankees and Chase Headley, though Alex Rodriguez’s presence and Pablo Sandoval’s price tag remain obstacles to a signing, George A. King III of the New York Post writes.  Sandoval’s next deal will set the bar for free agent third basemen, with Headley possibly poised to benefit as arguably the second-best 3B on the open market this winter.
  • For the record, King doesn’t think the Yankees are exploring signing Sandoval, though “it is hard to ignore what the Giants third baseman has done in the postseason.”
  • The Red Sox have been hesitant to sign hugely expensive contracts in recent years and, of course, spending is no guarantee of success.  With so many offseason needs, however, Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal thinks the team may be more open to one or more big contracts.

Cafardo’s Latest: Aoki, Ross, Friedman

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Here are some of the highlights from the latest Sunday notes column by Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe…

  • The White Sox will have “a lot of interest” in free agent outfielder Nori Aoki, Cafardo predicts.
  • David Ross was told by Red Sox GM Ben Cherington earlier this week that the club “wanted to see how the roster shook out before making a commitment to” bring back the veteran catcher.  Cafardo speculates that Cherington could be keeping his options open in regards to the team’s need for a left-handed hitting bat; if one can’t be found at another position, the Sox could look to add one at catcher.
  • Now that Joe Maddon is managing the Cubs, Cafardo wonders if Andrew Friedman will regret sticking with Don Mattingly in Los Angeles and not making a move to bring Maddon to the Dodgers.  “I think it will be a case of, ‘Why didn’t I do what the Cubs did?’ ” a baseball executive tells Cafardo. “Joe Maddon seems to be the hot manager out there and guys like that aren’t available very often. When Maddon is out there you don’t need a long, drawn-out managerial search. If you can afford him, you hire him.”
  • Rays bench coach Dave Martinez has been mentioned as a prime candidate to become the team’s next manager, and will surely be on the team’s list of interview candidates.  That said, “the feeling is that if…[Martinez] was going to get the job, he would have gotten it by now,” Cafardo writes.
  • Nelson Cruz’s free agency “will test the Orioles’ commitment to winning.”  In Cafardo’s opinion, the team has “no excuses” for not re-signing such a key part of their lineup, especially with extra revenues coming in from TV and increased attendance.

Rays and Orioles Notes: Maddon, Zobrist, Markakis, Hundley

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Now that former Rays skipper Joe Maddon has signed with the Cubs, the Rays find themselves at a philosophical crossroads, writes Buster Olney of ESPN (Insider only). The Rays must decide whether to pursue tampering charges against the Cubs. Per Olney, the Rays thought they were close to signing Maddon to a multi-year extension before he ultimately opted out of his contract. The timing seems suspicious, but it may be difficult to prove tampering.

The Rays have two options. They can either ignore the whiff of wrong doing or pursue an investigation. Major League Baseball has the authority to demand phone and email records from all 30 clubs, so a basic investigation is possible. Other small market teams, tired of being bullied by the big spenders, would ostensibly support an investigation. If tampering is proven, the Cubs could be forced to relinquish a player in return for Maddon. Historically, such returns have been middling. Randy Winn was traded for Lou Piniella, reliever Chris Carpenter was dealt for Theo Epstein, and the pair of Jhan Marinez and Ozzie Martinez were sent to the White Sox for Ozzie Guillen.

  • Despite turmoil atop the Rays organization, Ben Zobrist is excited to have his $7.5MM club option exercised, writes Marc Tomkin of the Tampa Bay Times. He expressed faith in GM Matt Silverman along with lieutenants Chaim Bloom and Erik Neander. Zobrist is set to become the first player in Rays franchise history to begin a 10th season with the club.
  • The Orioles declined a $17.5MM option for Nick Markakis a few days ago, but they’re still striving to re-sign him, reports Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun. One person who expects Markakis to return is manager Buck Showalter. The Orioles can negotiate exclusively with Markakis through Monday night. They also need to decide on a potential qualifying offer, which could depend on the character of their negotiations. After considering his $2MM buyout, the $15.3MM qualifying offer is just a $200K savings over the club option. If the club is confident Markakis will pursue a multi-year deal elsewhere, they may be more inclined to make the offer.
  • Baltimore officially declined Nick Hundley’s 2015 option via Twitter. The club is potentially interested in re-signing Hundley at a rate below his $5MM option, tweets Roch Kobatko of MASNsports.com. The 40 man roster now stands at 31 players according to Kubatko (also Twitter). We first learned the Orioles planned to decline the option last Thursday.

Orioles Claim Patrick McCoy

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The Orioles have claimed left-handed pitcher Pat McCoy off waivers from Detroit, according to  a press release from the Tigers.

McCoy, who turned 26 in August, made his big league debut for the Tigers this season, notching a 3.86 ERA in 14 innings. However, his ERA is a bit misleading, as the southpaw walked 13 batters against 11 strikeouts in that time and also allowed an alarming 21 hits.

Formerly a 10th-round pick of the Nationals, McCoy signed a minor league deal with Detroit last offseason and enjoyed a nice campaign in the minors before getting his first call to the bigs. Splitting the season between Double-A and Triple-A, McCoy pitched to a 3.00 ERA with 6.8 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9 in 45 innings of work.

Orioles Exercise Options On Chen, O’Day; Decline Options On Markakis, Hundley

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The Orioles announced that they have exercised their club options on left-hander Wei-Yin Chen ($4.75MM) and right-hander Darren O’Day ($4.25MM). Additionally, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com tweets that the team has declined its half of Nick Markakis’ $17.5MM mutual option (in favor of a $2MM buyout) and declined Nick Hundley’s $5MM option.

The decision to pick up the options on Chen and O’Day was an easy one, as both appear to be bargain rates relative to the level of production of each pitcher. Chen, a 29-year-old left-hander signed out of Taiwan, has been solid in three seasons for the Orioles and enjoyed his best year in 2014. In 185 2/3 innings in the Baltimore rotation, he pitched to a 3.54 ERA with 6.6 K/9, 1.7 BB/9 and a 41 percent ground-ball rate. In three years with the O’s, he’s totaled a 3.86 ERA in 515 1/3 innings while playing on a three-year, $11.388MM contract.

O’Day, who turned 32 last week, has been an integral part of the Orioles’ bullpen over the past three seasons but turned in his best work this year. Though he has a 2.05 ERA over 197 2/3 total innings in Baltimore, he pitched to a 1.70 mark this year to go along with 9.6 K/9, 2.5 BB/9 and a 44.6 percent ground-ball rate.

Markakis has been with the Orioles since being selected with the seventh overall pick in the 2003 draft. In nine seasons with Baltimore, he’s posted a cumulative line of .290/.358/.435. This past season, he posted a .276/.342/.386 line with 14 homers and a total of 2.5 fWAR/2.1 rWAR — a solid rebound campaign as he hits the open market for the first time. First, however, the O’s will have to decide whether or not to make him a $15.3MM qualifying offer. (I recently profiled Markakis and pegged him for a four-year deal without a QO and three years if he gets one.)

Hundley, 31, was acquired in exchange for lefty Troy Patton after Matt Wieters went down for the season due to Tommy John surgery. In 50 games and 174 plate appearances with the O’s, the former Padre batted .233/.273/.352 with five homers. He caught 19 percent of opposing base-stealers and graded out as a slightly above-average pitch-framer, per Baseball Prospectus.

Outrighted: Kalish, Valaika, Vitters, Meek

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Here are the day’s outright assignments:

  • The Cubs have made a series of roster trims, according to Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune (via Twitter). Outfielder Ryan Kalish and infielders Chris Valaika and Josh Vitters have each been outrighted, according to Gonzales. Righty James McDonald has elected free agency as well.
  • The Orioles have outrighted righty Evan Meek to Triple-A, the club announced. Meek will have the right to elect free agency, as he has previously been outrighted (including once earlier this year). Meek, 31, threw to a 5.79 ERA over 23 1/3 innings at the MLB level, all in relief. He struck out 6.2 and walked 4.2 batters per nine over that stretch. Meek has had better stretches in the majors, however, and even made an All-Star appearance with the Pirates back in 2010. Over 41 2/3 Triple-A frames this year, Meek worked to a 1.94 ERA with 8.0 K/9 against just 0.9 BB/9.

AL East Notes: Markakis, Cespedes, Hamels

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The Orioles have spoken to Nick Markakis’ agent and will continue contract discussions this week, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com reports.  Markakis is expected to hit free agency when the O’s decline their half of a $17.5MM option on the outfielder’s services for 2015.  “Both sides want to get a deal done, but….A hometown discount has its limits,” Kubatko writes.  Indeed, Markakis will draw a lot of interest on the open market, with MLBTR’s Steve Adams predicting Markakis will find a three- or four-year deal worth between $39-$48MM (depending on whether the Orioles extend a qualifying offer).

Here’s some more from around the AL East…

  • The Red Sox had some preliminary talks with Adam Katz, then Yoenis Cespedes’ agent, about a four- or five-year extension, Bill Madden of the New York Daily News reports.  Since then, however, Cespedes changed his representation to Roc Nation Sports and is expected to look for a longer-term deal, making it more likely that the Sox explore trading him this winter.  Beyond contract reasons, Boston could look to move the outfielder because, as a source tells Madden, Cespedes “marches to his own drum and the [Red Sox] coaches all hate him.”
  • The Red Sox could use Cespedes as a trade chip for starting pitching, and Madden speculates that the Mets line up with the Sox as trade partners.  Boston is also “exploring” what the Phillies would want for Cole Hamels, though Philadelphia isn’t interested in Cespedes.
  • Ex-Rays manager Joe Maddon spoke with Fangraphs’ David Laurila in September (before the current drama surrounding Maddon’s opt-out) and discussed why pitching and defense are dominating the sport. Beyond the PED crackdown, Maddon pointed out that quite a bit of recent significant sabermetrics work has been focused on pitching and defense, rather than offense.  Maddon also said driving a starter out of a game no longer presents the opportunity it once did, as “You see a lot of 95-plus out of the pen now, and some of those guys have quality secondary pitches. I think it’s become easier to build bullpens, and it’s rare a team has a bad one.”
  • Maddon also suggested speed might become a more crucial part of the game than it has been in the recent past, when homers and walks became the blueprint for offensive production.  The Red Sox, however, are one team that plans to stick to its offensive philosophy, GM Ben Cherington tells Laurila. “We know we need to build a better offense, but we have to be careful not to throw the baby out with the bathwater,” Cherington said. “If we can see pitches and get on base, and still hit for power and hit with runners in scoring position, I still think that’s a formula to score runs.”

Orioles Outright Steve Johnson

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1:37pm: Johnson will be a free agent, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com tweets. Baltimore hopes to sign him to a minor league deal, however, while he continues to rehab his shoulder.

1:12pm: The Orioles have outrighted right-hander Steve Johnson, the club announced. With the move, Baltimore has opened a 40-man roster spot.

Johnson, 27, did not see any time at the MLB level this year after receiving brief stints in each of the last two seasons. In total, he owns a 3.67 ERA over 54 big league innings. Johnson struggled mightily this year at Triple-A, allowing 7.11 earned runs per nine over 13 starts (over which he lasted just 38 innings).

Control issues were the primary culprit, as Johnson issued more than seven free passes per nine innings after never coming close to that mark in prior years. Of course, underlying that may well have been the presence of a significant bone spur in his throwing shoulder, which was ultimately removed surgically.

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