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Blake Snell

Rays Activate Blake Snell

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Rays left-hander Blake Snell is set to make his long-awaited return from the injured list, the team announced. Snell will start for the Rays in a road game against the Dodgers on Tuesday, and his activation will give the club a franchise-record 38 active players.

The Rays have been without Snell since July 25, when it became apparent the reigning American League Cy Young Award winner would need arthroscopic surgery to remove a loose body from his elbow. To that point, Snell had only performed like the dominant force he was a year ago on a sporadic basis, but he has nonetheless been a significant asset this season. The 26-year-old fired six shutout innings with 10 strikeouts in his most recent start July 21, helping him to a 4.21 ERA/3.40 FIP with 12.12 K/9 and 3.12 BB/9 across 101 frames in the campaign. Snell’s strikeout rate ranks fifth among all major leaguers who have amassed at least 100 innings this year.

Despite the long-term absences of Snell and fellow starters Tyler Glasnow (who returned from the IL on Sept. 8) and Yonny Chirinos (out since Aug. 4), the Rays have continued to hold an AL wild-card spot. They’re a game back of Oakland for the league’s No. 4 seed and one and a half up on Cleveland in the race for its final postseason position. The return of Snell should only increase the Rays’ chances of clinching their first playoff berth since 2013, though he probably isn’t going to give the team a lot of innings in his first game back from the IL.

Blake Snell Slated To Return Next Week

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Rays lefty and reigning American League Cy Young winner Blake Snell is scheduled to return to action next week, he tells reporters including Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (Twitter links). Snell will take the ball on Tuesday with the expectation of throwing about three innings.

Snell last appeared in late July, at which time he was sidelined with loose bodies in his pitching elbow. He has been working back since undergoing surgery to alleviate the issue. The absence has been a bit longer than initially anticipated.

It’s great news for the Rays, who’ll allow Snell to get his competitive rehab work in at the MLB level. There aren’t any more Triple-A games for Snell to appear in. And the Rays’ adaptable pitching staff is accustomed to covering for short starts and bulk appearances.

Snell will join righty Tyler Glasnow in returning with partial availability. Unlike Glasnow, who had been firmly on the rise when he hit the shelf, Snell had taken a step back early in the season. Through 101 innings over his twenty starts to this point, Snell carries a 4.28 ERA.

That said, the Tampa Bay organization has every reason to believe that Snell can get back to being the monster he was in 2018. He had been much the same pitcher by most measures — if not better. He maintained a 3.1 BB/9 walk rate while raising his strikeout game (12.1 K/9, 17.8% swinging-strike rate) and lowering his xwOBA (.263).

There isn’t much time left for Snell to build up his pitch count. He’ll be able to make three total outings before the end of the regular season, so it’s reasonable to presume he’ll still be climbing northward come crunch time. But he’d likely be nearing full availability. And if he goes every fifth day, Snell will be on turn to start the Wild Card game.

AL Notes: Rays, O’s, Alberto, Tigers, Hardy

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Let’s kick off the week with updates on a trio of American League clubs…

  • The wild card-contending Rays haven’t set specific timetables for the returns of injured starters Tyler Glasnow, Blake Snell and Yonny Chirinos, but the three figure to come back in that order, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes. Glasnow, who has been out since early May with a forearm injury and will finish 2019 as a reliever, could rejoin the team in the second week of September, per Topkin. Meanwhile, Snell is “probably 10 days behind [Glasnow] at least,” according to manager Kevin Cash. Snell, the reigning AL Cy Young winner, underwent arthroscopic surgery on his left elbow a month ago. Chirinos has been down for three weeks with an inflamed right middle finger – an injury that has thrown a wrench into a solid season for the 25-year-old.
  • Utilityman Hanser Alberto was waiver fodder last offseason, switching teams on multiple occasions before finally settling in with the Orioles for good in March. Since then, the 26-year-old has enjoyed what has easily been a career season. He’s slashing .314/.337/.440 with 10 home runs in 432 plate appearances, and the right-hander been downright dominant against lefties – whom he has victimized for a .402/.422/.540 line over 180 PA. A .446 batting average on balls in play has buoyed Alberto’s numbers versus southpaws, though, and Statcast isn’t really buying into his above-average production. Nevertheless, he’ll garner trade interest in the offseason, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com hears. It’s up in the air whether the O’s will strongly consider moving Alberto, who has played second and third with regularity this year and will enter arbitration for the first time in the offseason.
  • Tigers lefty Blaine Hardy’s season came to an end two weeks ago when he underwent a platelet-rich plasma injection in his elbow. Looking ahead to the offseason, Hardy realizes his Tigers tenure could conclude next. “You know and I know I might not be in Lakeland next year,” the 32-year-old told Chris McCosky of the Detroit News, referring to the team’s spring training home in Florida. Hardy has been a fairly successful reliever in Detroit since he debuted in 2014, but after elbow issues helped limit him to a 4.47 ERA/5.72 FIP with 5.89 K/9 and 2.64 BB/9 in 44 1/3 innings this year, it’s possible the Tigers will non-tender the soon-to-be out-of-options hurler as he readies for his second trip to arbitration. Regardless, Hardy’s glad he decided to call it a year instead of trying to gut out his elbow problems through the season. The Tigers were on the verge of demoting Hardy to Triple-A Toledo before his PRP injection, leading him to tell McCosky: “I had so many people in my corner say it would’ve been career suicide if I decided to go down to Triple-A and keep pitching through this. If something happened, and they found the tear at Triple-A, it would have been hard to retro it back to a big-league deal.”

Rays Place Yonny Chirinos On 10-Day IL

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The Rays announced today that righty Yonny Chirinos is headed to the 10-day injured list with an inflamed middle finger in his pitching hand (via MLB.com’s Juan Toribio, on Twitter). Fellow right-hander Austin Pruitt is coming up to take the open roster spot.

Details of the injury aren’t fully clear, but it seems the Tampa Bay org is anticipating a reasonably lengthy absence. Chirinos will be shut down for at least two weeks’ time, with skipper Kevin Cash announcing that Chirinos is expected to be sidelined for more than a month, as Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports (Twitter links).

After a strong debut showing in 2018, the 25-year-old Chirinos has thrown 126 2/3 innings of 3.62 ERA ball this year. He’s average 7.8 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9 with a 43.8% groundball rate. Those peripherals don’t exactly leap off the page, and Statcast numbers indicate the results may be on the fortunate side (.286 wOBA-against vs. .318 xwOBA-against). Still, Chirinos has impressed.

Chirinos has been an increasingly important part of a Rays staff that has lost two key starters to injury. There’s still no update on Tyler Glasnow; last we heard, there was increasing concern he might not make it back this year. As for Blake Snell, he told reporters (including Topkin) that his bone-chip removal procedure went well. His precise timeline won’t begin to gain clarity until the inflammation in his elbow subsides.

Blake Snell To Undergo Elbow Surgery, Miss At Least Four Weeks

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Rays ace Blake Snell is set to undergo arthroscopic surgery in his left elbow, as per The Athletic’s Josh Tolentino (subscription required).  The procedure will remove some a loose body from Snell’s elbow and will cost the southpaw at least four weeks of action, though he and the Rays “are confident he will pitch again this season.”

While Snell hasn’t been as dominant this year as he was during his Cy Young Award-winning 2018 season, Snell was still posting good numbers.  In fact, as per ERA predictors such as xFIP (3.16 in 2018, 3.23 in 2019) and SIERA (3.30 in 2018, 3.50 in 2019), Snell was pitching just as well this season as he did last year.  An increase in home run rate, however, has ballooned Snell’s ERA to 4.28 this season, plus he hasn’t gotten the strand rate and BABIP benefits that he enjoyed in 2018.

Overall, the left-hander has a 4.28 ERA, 12.1 K/9, and 3.89 K/BB rate over 101 frames this year, and he has been on a particular run of good form over his last four starts.  The Rays have been able to stay competitive in the wild card race even without Snell at the top of his game, so it’s a particularly tough bit of news for the team that Snell will hit the injured list just as he has been getting his season on track.

With Snell out, Charlie Morton now stands as the only full-time healthy starting pitcher on the Tampa Bay roster.  Yonny Chirinos has started most of his appearances but has also worked as a bulk pitcher behind an opener, while Tyler Glasnow is on the IL himself with a forearm problem and there is at least some doubt as to whether he’ll be able to return before season’s end.

Brendan McKay is probably the likeliest candidate to replace Snell, as the two-way star was optioned back to Triple-A last week following an impressive four-start beginning to his MLB career.  McKay has already pitched 86 innings between the minors and big leagues this year, however, and since his previous season-high was only 78 1/3 frames (in 2018), Tampa isn’t likely to push McKay’s arm too much as a long-term answer this year.

In theory, McKay (with some judicious innings-management and some openers picking up the slack) could fill in long enough for Snell to get healthy.  As Tolentino notes, Nathan Eovaldi ended up missing three months after undergoing a similar elbow procedure earlier this season, and while situations obviously vary from player to player, Snell’s four-week recovery timeline shouldn’t be set in stone.

As the trade deadline approaches, the Rays could seek out some pitching help, at least a second-tier veteran arm simply as an innings-eater to bail out the rotation while Snell recovers.  Tampa Bay has been loath, however, to acquire such pitchers over the last two years, preferring to rely on in-house answers and their opener strategy rather than an innings-eater type.  Being in the heat of a postseason race could adjust the Rays’ perspective, of course, particularly if a traditional starter could be had at a relatively low price.  Alternatively, the Rays could also opt to make a big splash for a front-of-the-rotation type of arm, if they’re willing to give up the big prospect package such a hurler would naturally cost.

AL Pitching Injury Notes: Snell, Carrasco, Smyly, Estrada, Hardy

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The Rays have decided to start ace lefty Blake Snell today after he bounced back quicker than expected from a minor toe fracture, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports. There are some obvious risks to bringing him back before he’s ready, but the organization obviously feels that isn’t the case. The reigning American League Cy Young winner has been outstanding once again early in 2019, with a 2.16 ERA and 13.0 K/9 against 1.4 BB/9 over 25 frames.

More on the health front, focusing on some other AL hurlers:

  • Indians righty Carlos Carrasco departed his start yesterday early with some left knee discomfort and will undergo an MRI to make sure there isn’t an injury. It’s being billed as a precautionary measure, as MLB.com’s Mandy Bell reports (via Twitter). The Indians will hope it comes back clean, as he’s a key part of the team’s plan to fend off challengers in the AL Central. Carrasco has had a few rough outings this year, but has also spun a pair of 12-strikeout gems and was getting the job done yesterday before tweaking the joint.
  • Rangers starter Drew Smyly was placed on the 10-day injured list yesterday with what the club described as mid-arm nerve tightness in his left arm. It seems the hope is that he’ll only miss a start or two; the placement was back-dated to April 20th. The 29-year-old Smyly hasn’t quite had the bounceback campaign he was hoping for to this point, with a 7.80 ERA, 19:10 K/BB ratio, and four home runs allowed through 15 innings over four starts. Right-handed Wei-Chieh Huang is up to take the open roster spot. He made his MLB debut earlier this season and has been throwing well at Double-A.
  • The Athletics sent righty Marco Estrada in for an “ablation procedure” on his balky back yesterday, as Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle was among those to cover (Twitter links). It seems he’ll be out through at least early May, though there isn’t a precise timeline just yet. The hope seems to be that this surgery will speed things up a bit. Meanwhile, the A’s hoping that reliever Lou Trivino will bounce back quickly after he was struck in the thumb by a baseball. He’s taking a few days but not slated to hit the injured list at the moment.
  • The Tigers announced yesterday that lefty Blaine Hardy was heading to the IL with a left forearm strain. Injuries to that area can be quite concerning for a pitcher, but there’s no real indication at this point of the outlook for the 32-year-old. After dabbling with the rotation in 2018, Hardy has been utilized in a multi-inning relief capacity thus far, throwing a dozen frames in eight appearances. Fellow southpaw Jose Fernandez takes his spot on the active roster.

AL East Notes: Snell, Pedroia, Jays, Vlad Jr.

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The latest from around the AL East…

  • Blake Snell continues to be on pace for a quick return from the 10-day IL, as the Cy Young Award winner told reporters (including Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times) that he felt good following a bullpen session on Saturday.  A fractured toe sent Snell to the injured list last week, though the southpaw could potentially be pitch on Wednesday, his first eligible day to be activated.  Since the Rays have an off-day on Thursday, however, the team could also wait until Friday to activate Snell, just to make sure the ace is entirely recovered and ready to go.  More details could be known on Monday, as manager Kevin Cash said Snell could throw another bullpen that day.
  • Dustin Pedroia is also hopeful of a minimum IL stint as he recovers from his latest knee problem, telling media (including Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald) that his injury was “just a weird freak thing” rather than a more serious setback.  The Red Sox second baseman explained that his cleat caught in the dirt while he was swinging during Wednesday’s game, leading to an ominous-sounding popping feeling in his knee when it failed to turn along with the rest of his body.  Given that knee injuries have limited to Pedroia to just nine games since the start of the 2018 season, he admitted that the pop “more kind of scared me than anything….We’re going to let it calm down for a few days and it should be all right. It just twisted the wrong way.”  Given Pedroia’s recent injury history, it wouldn’t be surprising if the Sox wait beyond the 10-day minimum to activate him from the IL.  In the opinion of Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe, the team should give Pedroia more minor league rehab time before his return, as Pedroia had only a four-day stay in the minors during his first rehab stint this season and looked shaky at the plate once he reached Boston’s MLB roster.
  • Speculation continues to swirl over when Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will be promoted to the Blue Jays’ roster, now that more than enough days have elapsed on the service-time calendar for the Jays to gain an extra year of control over the star prospect.  Guerrero was slowed by an oblique injury suffered during Spring Training, though he hasn’t looked any worse for wear in his return to the Triple-A Buffalo Bisons, posting a whopping 1.324 OPS over his first 20 plate appearances.  The Jays would like to see Guerrero play in three consecutive games as part of his recovery process, though as MLB.com’s Gregor Chisholm notes, this has yet to happen due to multiple rainouts on Buffalo’s schedule.  Assuming the Bisons get some good weather on their four-game series in Syracuse this week, Chisholm speculates that April 26 would seem to be the earliest potential date for Guerrero’s Toronto debut, when the Blue Jays begin a series against the Athletics at Rogers Centre.

Rays Place Blake Snell On 10-Day IL

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Reigning AL Cy Young winner Blake Snell is headed onto the 10-day injured list with a fractured toe, the club announced. (Via Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times; links to Twitter.) Righty Emilio Pagan will take the open roster spot.

Fortunately, that news is far less concerning than it seems at first glance, as Snell is only expected to miss a single start. There’s little doubt the Rays will hold him out longer if necessary to be sure, but it seems only to be a blip.

Snell has been excellent thus far in 2019, turning in 25 innings of 2.16 ERA ball after inking an extension in camp. He’s average a head-turning 13.0 K/9 against 1.4 BB/9 in the new season, making him an early favorite to repeat as the AL’s consensus best starter.

Pagan, 27, will make his debut with the Tampa Bay organization after seeing time in the majors in the last two years with the Mariners and A’s. He owns a 3.85 ERA in 112 1/3 MLB frames to this point. Despite a promising blend of 9.5 K/9 against 2.2 B/9, Pagan has been hurt by the long ball (1.6 HR/9). He has thrown six scoreless innings in four appearances to open the year at Triple-A, so it seems he could be utilized in a multi-inning capacity.

Rays To Extend Blake Snell

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2:00pm: Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports the yearly breakdown (Twitter link). Snell will be paid a $3MM signing bonus and earn $1MM in 2019. He’ll then be paid salaries of $7MM, $10.5MM, $12.5MM and $16MM in the subsequent four seasons. That $16MM salary in 2023 can increase by up to $2MM based on his placement in the Cy Young race.

1:50pm: The Rays have formally announced the contract as well as the terms of the deal. Snell can earn an additional $2MM  via incentives, per the team.

1:43pm: The Rays have reached an agreement on a five-year, $50MM contract with reigning Cy Young winner Blake Snell, Jeff Passan of ESPN reports (on Twitter). There are no options included on the contract, which will buy out all of Snell’s arbitration seasons and what would have been his first free-agent year. Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets that Snell’s deal does not include a no-trade clause. Snell is represented by Sosnick, Cobbe & Karon.

Blake Snell | Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Snell, 26, will receive the largest contract ever guaranteed to a pitcher with between two and three years of service time, breaking the previous record held by Gio Gonzalez, as can be seen in MLBTR’s Extension Tracker. (Miles Mikolas could technically be considered in that category, though as a player who had established himself overseas and would’ve otherwise been eligible for free agency, his extension was under wholly different circumstances.) Despite the fact that he has less service time and was not yet eligible for arbitration, Snell rode that Cy Young Award to a guarantee that tops the sums promised to both Luis Severino (four years, $40MM) and Aaron Nola (four years, $45MM) earlier this offseason.

Because Snell was still a year from arbitration, he was still a year from cashing in on his first seven-figure payday. Even if one were to aggressively forecast what he’d make in arbitration by suggesting he’d top Dallas Keuchel’s record $7.25MM first-time arbitration salary for a pitcher, Snell likely would’ve topped out around $35-40MM between now and the end of his arbitration eligibility. He’s possibly trading as much as $20MM in that would-be first year of free agency in exchange for the up-front payday, but that’s in a best-case scenario for his performance. A more realistic forecast of his future would need to account for the downside of injury and regression/decline.

The contract for Snell comes just weeks after the left-hander took umbrage with the organization’s decision to renew his 2019 contract for $573,700 — a raise of just $15K over the preceding season (at a time when the league-minimum salary increased by $5K).

“The Rays have the right under the collective bargaining agreement to renew me at or near the league-minimum salary,” Snell told Topkin at the time. “They also have the ability to to more adequately compensate me, as other organizations have done with players who have similar achievements to mine. The Rays chose the former.” At this point, one would imagine that renewal amounts to little more than water under the bridge with a new record-setting extension locked into place.

Snell, the No. 52 overall pick by the Rays back in 2011 and a longtime top prospect, solidified himself as an MLB-caliber starter in 2017 season with 24 starts of 4.04 ERA ball. However, he thrust himself into the ranks of the game’s elite pitchers in 2018 when he overpowered opponents with a 1.89 ERA with 11.0 K/9 against 3.2 BB/9 in 31 starts. Snell’s 15.1 percent swinging-strike rate was the fourth-best mark among all qualified MLB starters, trailing only Max Scherzer, Patrick Corbin and Carlos Carrasco while tying him with NL Cy Young winner Jacob deGrom. His 33.1 percent opponents’ chase rate on pitches out of the strike zone ranked 18th among MLB starters.

It’s the second extension of the week for the Rays, who also locked up promising young infielder/outfielder Brandon Lowe on a six-year, $24MM pact. Looking ahead, Snell joins Lowe and center fielder Kevin Kiermaier as the only players on the Rays’ roster to have a guaranteed contract beyond the 2020 season. Kiermaier’s deal will come off the books after the 2022 season, while Snell is controlled through 2023 and Lowe through 2024 (plus a pair of club options). That trio won’t combine for more than $34.2MM in any single season in which their contracts overlap, leaving even the cost-conscious Rays with a bit of flexibility.

Rays Renew Blake Snell For $573,700

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SUNDAY: Snell’s renewal is official, Topkin tweets. He commented on the team’s decision (via Topkin), saying: “The Rays have the right under the collective bargaining agreement to renew me at or near the league-minimum salary. They also have the ability to to more adequately compensate me, as other organizations have done with players who have similar achievements to mine. The Rays chose the former. I will have no further comment and look forward to competing with my teammates and field staff in our quest to win the World Series in 2019.”

FRIDAY: The Rays intend to stick to their pre-arb salary formula with regard to lefty Blake Snell, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports. It is anticipated that the team will renew Snell’s contract at the price of just $573,700.

Plenty of young major leaguers are playing at similar rates of pay, to be sure. The minimum salary sits at $555K and most organizations stay close to it, typically handing out increases measured in the thousands or tens of thousands based upon service time and certain performance standards.

The collective bargaining agreement allows teams to pay pre-arb players whatever it likes, so long as they earn at that floor level. Snell, though, needn’t agree to the salary he’s allotted. And indications are he won’t, preferring instead to make a symbolic protest.

The southpaw says it’s “disappointing” that he wasn’t rewarded with a bigger increase after wrapping up a stellar season in which he walked off with the American League Cy Young Award. He was anything but vitriolic toward the Tampa Bay organization, but left no doubt that he’ll also be taking a businesslike approach in his future dealings with the club.

Given his immense achievement, it’s not surprising that Snell would feel a bit slighted. It’s true, as Topkin notes, that renewals aren’t terribly uncommon for players who’ve turned in big seasons. But the examples he cites also highlight just how stingy the Rays’ formula is. Josh Hader declined to agree to the $687,600 salary that the Brewers’ own spreadsheets spit out. Mookie Betts wouldn’t put his signature on a $950K payday after a season in which he placed second in the MVP voting. The same thing happened last spring with Carlos Correa, who was renewed at a cool $1MM.

It is understandable enough that the Rays wish to maintain discipline, as Topkin explains, and are wary of allowing “an exception” to make it impossible to “draw, and hold, the line” in future situations. Of course, the team set its formula by fiat and can modify it at will to incorporate whatever inputs it wishes. No doubt the data-savvy organization could imagine a way to reward truly exemplary performance without opening the door to otherwise unwanted expenses. A well-crafted incentive structure might even make good financial sense, though the Rays have surely thought that through already.

With some prior extension chatter having failed to gain traction, Topkin writes, the expectation now is that the sides will go year to year in the arbitration process. Snell will hope to follow Betts in making his employer pay up through his three arb years:

“Hopefully this pushes me. Arbitration will be the business side, and that’s what I’ll tell them. I think fair is fair. It all comes around in the end anyway. At the end of the day, you get what you put in. I’ll be motivated.”

If you’re interested in learning more about the use of formulas in setting pre-arb salaries, check out this old but good piece from Zach Links on the subject.

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