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Blake Snell

Rays To Start Blake Snell In World Series Game 6

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Last night’s back-and-forth thriller ended with an 8-7 Rays win. That knotted the World Series at two games apiece, setting the stage for a Tyler Glasnow – Clayton Kershaw showdown in tonight’s crucial Game 5.

Tampa Bay’s win also guaranteed the series will go at least six games. Unsurprisingly, Blake Snell is set to take the ball for the Rays in the sixth contest on Tuesday night (via Juan Toribio of MLB.com). That’ll give the southpaw five days rest since his most recent start in Game 2, when he tossed 4.2 innings of two-run ball, striking out nine while allowing a pair of hits and four walks.

Snell was warming in the bullpen in the late innings last night, but manager Kevin Cash decided against bringing him into the game. How the Dodgers will deploy their pitching staff in Game 6 remains to be seen, but it’s easy to envision a potential Game 7 matchup between Charlie Morton and Walker Buehler.

Rays Name Glasnow, Snell Starters For First Two Games Of World Series

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Blake Snell will end his streak of starting game ones for the Rays, but he’s not going to  wait long to take the hill. Snell will get the ball in game two against the Dodgers, while Tyler Glasnow will toe the rubber in the opening game of the World Series, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter).

Clayton Kershaw is set to oppose Glasnow in game one for the Dodgers. Los Angeles was able to escape the NLCS despite just one so-so outing from Kershaw, but they’re surely expecting more from the all-time great as the World Series kicks off on Tuesday.

For the Rays, expect similar usage from their pitching staff over the first couple of games, but it will be anyone’s guess from there. With days off after game two and game five, manager Kevin Cash will have more options available to him. The days off mean the Rays will probably drop a pitcher from their 15-man unit in order to bring a position player back into the mix, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. The Rays went with a 14-and-14 pitch-to-hitter balance for the first few rounds of the playoffs, only adding the additional arm for the 7-day, 7-game ALCS.

Rays starters don’t tend to pitch far beyond the fifth inning regardless, but the extra rest gives Cash some flexibility for how to deploy his arms. Charlie Morton would be on five days rest for a game three start, assuming Cash decides to keep his regular rotation intact. He could then turn to Ryan Yarbrough for game four, or return to Glasnow on three days’ rest.

Purely speculating, Josh Fleming and Jose Alvarado were the ’last in,’ so to speak, having been added to the roster for the ALCS. Alvarado struggled with his command, while the Rays may not feel the need for a longman like Fleming given the extra days of rest. Shane McClanahan, who made his big league debut during the postseason, could also be an option for removal. On the offensive end, Brett Phillips and Nate Lowe both made the playoff roster for a previous round. Given how much the Rays value outfield defense, Phillips might be the more natural add, especially with Ji-Man Choi healthy and ostensibly filling Lowe’s potential role on the roster.

Framber Valdez, Blake Snell To Start Game 6 Of ALCS

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Thanks to the heroics of shortstop Carlos Correa, who hit a walk-off home run Thursday, the Astros forced a Game 6 of the American League Championship Series against the Rays. Both teams’ starters are set for that affair on Friday. The Astros will use left-hander Framber Valdez, per manager Dusty Baker (via Brian McTaggart of MLB.com), while the Rays will turn to fellow southpaw Blake Snell, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times tweets.

This will be the third straight backs-against-the-wall game for the Astros, who fell behind 3-0 in the series but have refused to go away quietly. They’ve won two consecutive games by a 4-3 score and will now rely on the 26-year-old Valdez to keep their season going. He was an indispensable part of their Justin Verlander-less rotation during the regular season, when he tossed 70 2/3 innings of 3.57 ERA/2.85 FIP ball with 9.68 K/9, 2.04 BB/9 and a 60 percent groundball rate. Valdez has added another 18 frames in the postseason and allowed just four earned runs. The Rays did, however, get the better of him in Game 1 of the ALCS with a 2-1 victory.

Snell was at the helm for the Rays in the series’ first game, and the former AL Cy Young winner gave up one run in five innings. He has generally been excellent in these playoffs, having surrendered five ER in 15 2/3 frames. Before that, Snell had another effective regular season with 50 innings of 3.24 ERA/4.35 FIP pitching with 11.34 K/9, 3.24 BB/9 and a 49.2 percent GB rate. The 27-year-old now has a chance to pitch Tampa Bay into the World Series for the first time since 2008.

Rays Name Blake Snell As ALCS Game 1 Starter

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After defeating the Yankees last night in a climatic Game 5 victory, the Rays will move from the ALDS almost directly into the American League Championship Series, beginning Sunday night in San Diego.  The Rays announced that left-hander Blake Snell will be on the mound to start Game 1 against the Astros, making it three postseason series openers in a row for the former AL Cy Young Award winner.

Snell started Game 1 of the Rays’ wild card series with the Blue Jays, earning the win after tossing 5 2/3 shutout innings.  It was a different story in Game 1 of the ALDS, as New York struck for four runs (three on solo homers) in five innings of work against Snell, who allowed six hits and two walks while striking out four batters.

That outing marked Snell’s only ALDS appearance, so he’ll head into Sunday’s game on five full days of rest.  The extra day has generally benefited Snell during his career, as he has a 2.78 ERA, 2.94 K/BB rate, and 10.7 K/9 in 44 career starts on five days’ rest, as opposed to a 3.72 ERA in 43 career starts on the normal four days’ rest.

The Astros didn’t excel against left-handed pitching this season, finishing 20th of 30 teams in wRC+ (94) and slugging percentage (.403), 22nd in batting average (.232), and 26th in OBP (.299) against southpaws in 2020.  Of course, the playoffs have been a much different story for Houston’s offense, as the Astros have been tearing the cover off the ball over six games against the Twins and Athletics.  The Astros’ postseason OPS against lefties (.846) is actually higher than their OPS against right-handers (.836).

While no announcement has yet been made, Charlie Morton seems like the logical candidate to start Game 2 for the Rays.  Morton started Game 3 of the ALDS on Wednesday, and thus be lined up for Game 2 of the ALCS on regular rest.

AL East Notes: Severino, Red Sox, Snell, Boras

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After undergoing Tommy John surgery during Spring Training, Yankees right-hander Luis Severino tells George A. King III of the New York Post that “things have been progressing well” in the initial stages of the rehabilitation process.  Severino has been working with team trainers at the Yankees’ Spring Training facility in Tampa “since the day after I had my surgery,” and said he has “been making steady progress — lifting, doing exercises.  Since three months ago…I feel way better.  I’m doing everything I need to do right now so that I can start throwing this summer.”

Given the normal 12-15 month timeline attached to TJ recovery, it would be a boon for both Severino and the Yankees if he is able to return by Opening Day 2021 (assuming next season begins as usual in late March), and it’s probably more realistic to assume he’ll miss at least a month of a regularly-scheduled 2021 campaign.  Severino already missed almost all of the 2019 season due to lat and shoulder injuries, tossing only 20 1/3 total innings over the regular season and postseason.

More from around the AL East…

  • Had the season begun as expected, the Red Sox “would have had some tough decisions to get down to 26” players on the Opening Day roster, manager Ron Roenicke tells Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe.  Now, since Major League rosters are expected to be expanded by anywhere from two to four extra players, it “will give us a chance to keep some players we like,” Roenicke said.  This is one small silver lining amidst a wholly unique season that will present many difficulties for all teams, as Abraham outlines how Roenicke is trying to keep his team prepared both in the short term and in preparation of whatever shape the 2020 season (if it happens at all) could take.  Providing updates on a few players, Roenicke said starters Eduardo Rodriguez, Nathan Eovaldi, Martin Perez, and Ryan Weber have been throwing two simulated innings per week in order to stay fresh, with the idea being that the quartet can quickly ramp up to being able to toss five innings by the end of an abbreviated second Spring Training.
  • Rays left-hander Blake Snell recently became the Boras Corporation’s newest client, which agent Scott Boras calls “a great opportunity for us,” the Tampa Bay Times’ Marc Topkin writes.  “We consider him an elite performer who is still at the beginning of his career,” Boras said, noting that his agency’s “resources” in both on-field preparation and off-the-field endeavors make for “a great combination” with Snell.  The southpaw’s contract runs through the 2023 season, and while there isn’t any immediate opening for the Boras Corporation to receive a commission on a future deal, Boras repeatedly dismissed the suggestion that his change in representation could be a step towards finding a new team.  “The main idea right now is that we’re going to work with the team to provide every resource and to make [Snell] a better Ray,” Boras said.

Blake Snell Hires Boras Corporation

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Rays left-hander Blake Snell has changed representation and is now a client of the Boras Corporation, Ken Rosenthal and Josh Tolentino of The Athletic report (subscription link). MLBTR has made note of Snell’s agency change in our database.

Snell’s switch to the game’s highest-profile agent comes long before he’ll be eligible to reach the open market. Coming off an AL Cy Young-winning season in 2018, he and his former agency, Apex Sports, scored a five-year, $50MM extension from the Rays in March 2019. That deal made for a record for players with fewer than three years’ service time in both length and total value. As a result of the pact, the 27-year-old Snell is slated to remain in Tampa Bay through the 2023 campaign.

As noted Monday here at MLBTR, Snell – the 52nd pick in the 2011 draft – has been quite effective for the Rays since he made his major league debut in 2016. However, aside from his 180 2/3-inning showing two years ago, he hasn’t eaten a great deal of frames in any season. Snell has averaged a bit over five innings per start in 97 outings, but the hard thrower has put up a sterling 3.24 ERA/3.42 FIP with 10.41 K/9 and 3.81 BB/9 along the way.

How A Minor Signing Led To A Cy Young Winner

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Former major league outfielder Brad Hawpe was a more-than-respectable offensive player during his peak with the Rockies. While Hawpe had difficulty early on from his debut in 2004 through the next season, he combined to slash .288/.384/.518 (124 wRC+) with 99 home runs in 2,338 plate appearances from 2006-09. The last of those four years, an All-Star campaign for Hawpe, went down as his final truly effective effort as a hitter. After Hawpe got off a .255/.343/.432 start (94 wRC+) with only seven homers in 2010, the team released him late that August.

Hawpe, then 31 years old, drew a vast amount of interest when he reached free agency amid a pennant race. He ultimately signed a minor league contract with the Rays, who at the time were in a hotly contested fight for AL East supremacy with the Yankees and Red Sox. The Rays did end up with 96 victories and a division crown that season before falling in the ALDS, but their regular-season sucess wasn’t Hawpe’s doing. He debuted with Tampa Bay on Sept. 1 and went on to hit .179/.304/.333 with two homers in 39 at-bats in its uniform.

Hawpe didn’t participate in the Rays’ postseason series, and shortly after its conclusion, he rejected their arbitration offer in order to revisit the open market. Because he was a Type B free agent under MLB’s old system, the Rays were entitled to a compensatory draft pick for losing Hawpe. And they did watch him exit when he took San Diego’s $2MM guarantee in January 2011. Hawpe didn’t produce as a Padre or as a member of the Angels, with whom his career concluded in 2013, but the Rays have benefited immensely from his short-term run with them and stand to continue gaining from it over the long haul.

In essence, the Rays traded one month of Hawpe – who cost them very little money – for the 52nd selection in the draft. The Rays used that choice on a then-Washington state high school left-hander named Blake Snell. The year Tampa Bay drafted him, Baseball America wrote in his scouting report, “Because of his signability, his velocity and how well he has performed in front of crosscheckers, Snell could get popped as high as the supplemental first round, though on pure talent he would probably go a few rounds later.”

The gamble has worked out for the Rays, with whom Snell has been elite at times dating back to his first season in 2016. He spun 89 innings of 3.54 ERA ball then, and though Snell struggled enough the next season to earn a short-term demotion to the minors, he returned to MLB to finish with a decent 4.04 ERA in 129 1/3 frames. But it was 2018 when Snell truly took off; owing in part to a jump in velocity, he pitched to a 1.89 ERA with 11.01 K/9 and 3.19 BB/9 across 180 2/3 innings en route to AL Cy Young honors.

With injuries troubling him, Snell was unable to reign atop the AL again last year, when his ERA ballooned to 4.29 in 107 innings. However, that’s not to say he totally fell off the map. You’d be hard-pressed to find a team that wouldn’t sign up for the 3.32 FIP and 12.36 K/9 against 3.36 BB/9 he posted last season.

The Rays already extended Snell on a five-year, $50MM guarantee deal before the prior campaign, keeping a high-end starter under control through 2023. To think, it all started with the minor addition of Hawpe a decade ago. Not bad.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Quick Hits: Latest On The Impact Of Coronavirus Around The Game

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As players and owners work on negotiating a financial accord to allow for the start of play, opinions have trickled in from all reaches of the baseball-sphere with personal stances about how best to reboot gameplay. After Blake Snell set off a bit of a firestorm with his concerns about returning to the field, many players have chimed in to support the lefty hurler. Obviously, many players are justifiably concerned about what gameplay would mean for their safety and the safety of their families. No one understands this as much as Yoan Moncada, whose 1-year-old daughter was recently hospitalized. She’s doing better now, and Moncada, despite the scare, is ready to return to play should that become a possibility, per Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times. Van Schouwen provides a quote from Moncada, who said, “[My family is] concerned, as everybody is. But if the conditions are safe, they’re going to be good with it. But it is a concern no matter what.” Obviously, everyone has been affected in some form or fashion by this pandemic, and players face difficult personal decisions ahead before returning to play. Of course, COVID-19 has hurt not just the players and owners…

  • While most of the focus has remained on the league’s attempts to return to the playing field, the consequences of the shutdown are hitting home for many professionals in the field. The Reds, Rays, and Marlins have announced furloughs that are to begin in June, and the latest from MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter) has the Angels among the teams considering the same. Officially, the Angels are still on the fence. It is nonetheless an unfortunate and troubling development for those involved. Hopefully, some of the larger market franchises will be better equipped to weather the storm for their employees.
  • Beyond the question of will-they-or-won’t-they play a 2020 season, there are ancillary questions that need answering in the event of a shortened 2020 season. Joel Sherman of the New York Post runs through a whole host of those issues that will require answers at some point. Among Sherman’s inquiries are topics ranging from a potential trade deadline to drug testing to the practical concerns of the games themselves. Baseball is in a better position than heavy-contact sports like basketball and football, but the game still cannot be played with players keeping a 6-foot distance from one another. It helps that the primary action takes place between a batter and pitcher standing 60 feet and 6 inches apart, but there is plenty of potential for in-game contact, as well as the mere fact of shuffling 26-man rosters from stadium to stadium together.
  • The Red Sox will be able to resume play at Fenway Park this season according to Boston Mayor Marty Walsh. There are, of course, a number of conditions to meet before play resumes at Fenway. For instance, fans will not be allowed in attendance, per Michael Silverman of the Boston Globe. There will also be safety measures that the city of Boston must sign off on before play resumes. Still, it may give players a welcome sense of familiarity to be able to play in their home ballparks, even without fans in the seats. The number of teams that will be able to resume play in their home parks remains up in the air for now, though that does seem to be the goal for most teams.

Quick Hits: Snell, Draft, Torkelson, Molina, Jefry

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It’s not quite a Cy Young Award, but Rays southpaw Blake Snell captured another unique honor by winning the MLB The Show Players League championship today.  (MLB.com’s Mandy Bell, Adam Berry, Do-Hyoung Park and Juan Toribio have the details.)  The tournament featured one player from each team competing in a round-robin regular season of games of MLB The Show, with the top performers advancing to the postseason.  Snell dominated play in both the regular season and playoffs, including a three-game sweep of Lucas Giolito in the best-of-five World Series.

Snell’s victory clinched an extra donation to the Boys & Girls Clubs of the Suncoast.  Each of the 30 players represented a different local Boys & Girls Club, with every Club receiving charitable donations from the league, the players’ union, and Sony Interactive Entertainment.  Full details on the tournament are available here.

Some more notes from around the non-virtual baseball world…

  • There seems to be an increasing expectation that the Tigers will take Arizona State first baseman Spencer Torkelson with the first overall pick in the amateur draft, according to both Lynn Henning of the Detroit News and Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press.  While nothing will be certain until Torkelson’s name is called, the slugger is considered the top prospect available by many pundits, and is perhaps something of a safer pick.  Perfect Game national director Brian Sakowski tells Fenech that the lack of spring baseball created less opportunity for any prospect to showcase new skills or have a breakout performance, so while Vanderbilt’s Austin Martin may not necessarily be behind Torkelson on Detroit’s draft board, the lack of clarity about Martin’s future defensive position might inspire the Tigers to just go with Torkelson’s more obvious power potential.  Henning is even more straight-forward in his assessment, writing “the Tigers are all but certain to take Torkelson,” as he would immediate become the headline bat in a Detroit farm system that is rich in quality young arms but short on blue chip hitting prospects.
  • Yadier Molina raised some eyebrows by recently saying that he was open to play for another team besides the Cardinals when he reaches free agency, though Ben Frederickson of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch still feels Molina will ultimately remain with the Redbirds.  “The Cardinals need Molina more than any other team needs him, and no other team would appreciate him like the Cardinals do,” Frederickson writes, and a reunion should eventually happen “as long as sanity and reason remain at the heart of the conversation.”  That said, if another team could emerge as a potential suitor for the veteran catcher, Frederickson speculates the Angels could be a possibility, given Molina’s ties to Albert Pujols and Tony La Russa (who was hired in November as a special advisor to the Halos’ baseball operations department).
  • Jefry Rodriguez started eight of his 10 games with the Indians last season, though Cleveland.com’s Joe Noga feels the right-hander could be a swingman option for the Tribe if the 2020 season gets underway.  It was an open question as to whether or not Rodriguez would have made Cleveland’s Opening Day roster under normal circumstances, but his ability to work in multiple roles and pitch multiple innings could be helpful in a shortened season, given a compressed schedule and the likelihood that regular starters would be on a reduced workload.  The 26-year-old Rodriguez came to Cleveland from Washington as part of the Yan Gomes trade in November 2018, and he posted a 4.63 ERA, 6.4 K/9, and 1.57 K/BB rate over 46 2/3 innings last season.

Rebound Candidate: Blake Snell

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Right off the top, I’ll acknowledge the term ’rebound candidate’ is a bit strong to describe Blake Snell. Even looking only at bottom line results, Snell’s 2019 season was serviceable. He logged a 4.29 ERA in 107 innings over 23 starts; Baseball Reference, which emphasizes run prevention in its WAR calculation, pegged Snell at a decent 1.4 wins above replacement.

There’s no question, though, it marked a step back from his otherworldly 2018 results. That year, he tossed 180.2 innings while allowing fewer than two earned runs per nine. That league-best run prevention translated to 7.1 bWAR. Looking solely at the results, it’d be easy to conclude Snell took a massive step back last season.

Every team now looks beyond a pitcher’s mere run prevention (or win-loss record, where Snell also regressed dramatically). Looking deeper, the southpaw looked a lot like his 2018 self last year. His average fastball velocity dropped about half a mile per hour, but he still sat 95.89 MPH, per Brooks Baseball. No other left-handed starter threw harder. His spin rates across the board remained consistent 2018 to 2019, as did his arm slot. On the whole, Snell was working with the same raw stuff that enabled his 2018 dominance.

Admittedly, retaining his stuff from the year prior doesn’t automatically mean he was as effective. But on a micro level, Snell looked every bit as dominant. His 2019 strikeout rate (33.3%) was up nearly two percentage points from the year before (31.6%). His walk rate (9.1%) in each year was identical. Most importantly, Snell’s 17.7% swinging strike rate ranked #1 among all MLB starters (minimum 60 innings). The names just behind him are a who’s who of the game’s top arms: Gerrit Cole, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, Luis Castillo, Jacob deGrom.

Nor was this a case of a pitcher with dominant strike zone metrics who got bombed when hitters did make contact. Snell’s 88 MPH average exit velocity and 32% hard contact rate allowed were league average, generally the same level of contact quality he surrendered in 2018. Snell’s opponents’ BABIP rose over .100 points between 2018-19, but there’s nothing to suggest he got any more hittable. (He did surrender a few more line drives last season, but large changes in line drive rate don’t tend to stick year to year). It just seems that more batted balls dropped in; if even a league average amount of those batted balls find gloves moving forward, he should again be one of the league’s toughest pitchers to score against.

If a 2020 season is ultimately played, Snell looks more than capable of contending for another Cy Young. He had a precautionary cortisone shot in his throwing elbow in February, but at last check he was feeling ’fine.’ Assuming the layoff allows him to reemerge at full health, Snell looks on track to reclaim his spot as one of the league’s best pitchers.

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