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Extension Candidates: AL East

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There’s no baseball in the present, which has many fans turning to the past, as broadcasters are helping us addicts get our fix by filling the air with classic games from days gone by. But what about the future? Which players are logical fits for contract extensions for the days yet to come?

We’ve already checked in on the NL East, NL Central and NL West. Now it’s time to switch over to the Junior Circuit and check in on the AL East.

Blue Jays

The youth movement is in full effect north of the border, as the team currently has no position players on the 40-man roster who have reached their 30th birthday. That means there are extension candidates up and down the line. From the team’s perspective, they would surely love to lock up their young core players of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette and Cavan Biggio, all of whom have less than a year of service time and are therefore at least two years away from arbitration. However, since all three are the sons of retired big leaguers who made millions during their playing days, they might not be as motivated as some other players to sign away years of free agency in exchange for the security of having guaranteed money in the bank.

One promising youngster without a famous lineage is catcher Danny Jansen. The team could have some desire to lock him up if they think he’s their catcher of the future. But does the team still believe that after his lackluster offensive numbers in 2019?

On the pitching side, the most promising young arm is prospect Nate Pearson, who hasn’t even made it onto the roster yet. We’ve seen some recent extensions given to players before their MLB debuts, such as Luis Robert, Evan White and Eloy Jimenez, but none for pitchers just yet. One wild card is Ken Giles. The 29-year-old has been lights out since leaving Houston and is one year away from free agency. But because of injury concerns, perhaps the right deal could give him enough peace of mind to forgo the open market.

Orioles

The Orioles are about as full into rebuild as a team can be. And the path out of the AL East basement seems to be long and arduous. But one way to brighten the light at the end of the tunnel would be to lock in some quality players for the happier days down the road. Unfortunately, there’s not a lot of guys that currently meet that description.

The team had four players produce more than 2.0 fWAR in 2019. Two of them are now on different teams (Dylan Bundy and Jonathan Villar). And another, Trey Mancini, is suddenly in an uncertain position after recently undergoing surgery to remove a malignant tumor from his colon.

That leaves only hurler John Means, who had a fantastic breakout season in 2019. And since he’s about to turn 27 and is two years away from arbitration, he might want to lock up some cash while he can. But from the team perspective, Means might not be worth betting on at this stage. His 2019 ERA of 3.60 was nice, but FIP and xFIP are less bullish, pegging him at 4.41 and 5.48, respectively. It would be prudent for the Orioles to be patient and see if he has the ability to find repeat success.

Rays 

The cash-strapped Rays are big fans of the extension, having signed 11 of them in the decade that just ended. Since they almost never reel in big fish in free agency, Charlie Morton notwithstanding, extensions are the best way for them to get bang for their buck and keep talent on the roster. Just a few weeks ago, they were reportedly discussions extensions with Tyler Glasnow and Austin Meadows.

As for Glasnow, he finally had his long-awaited breakout in 2019. He just reached arbitration as a Super Two and could conceivably make some decent money with four trips through arbitration. The club would surely prefer to put a cap on his earnings ceiling if they could. And since Glasnow struggled through his first few years in Pittsburgh, he might welcome the security of guaranteed cash to insure himself against those struggles returning. But because of injuries, he only logged 60 2/3 innings last year. He still hasn’t proven he can maintain his abilities over a full season. Until he does, that limits his leverage in negotiations.

As for Meadows, he had a tremendous season in 2019, putting up the kind of classical power numbers that should reward him well in arbitration. As long as he can stay healthy and repeat them. But since arbitration is still two years away, perhaps a compromise could be worked out wherein he gets more money now but sacrifices the top end of his earning power.

In terms of other guys, there are a whole whack of them that the Rays could try to nail down before they start getting paid real money. The list includes Joey Wendle, Willy Adames, Ryan Yarbrough, Manuel Margot, Hunter Renfroe and a big batch of relievers. But of course, with the Rays, there’s always a decent chance they’ll just trade a guy as soon as they get uncomfortable with his cost.

Red Sox

After trading away Mookie Betts and David Price and then losing Chris Sale to Tommy John surgery, it might feel like the Red Sox are a hollowed-out husk. But there’s still a lot of talent on the roster that they should want to keep around. And now that they’ve accomplished their goal of getting under the luxury tax barrier, they should have some room on the payroll to actually do it.

Andrew Benintendi recently signed a two-year deal. But he will still have one arbitration year remaining after that. That means he would hit the free agent market as a 28-year-old, potentially lining himself up for a nice payday, unless the Sox pay him first. Eduardo Rodriguez just had his best season and could also reach free agency at 28. He’s making $8.3MM in 2020 and still has one more pass through arbitration remaining. With Price and Sale gone, and Eovaldi’s injury history, it could make sense to keep Rodriguez around for a few more years for some rotation stability.

Rafael Devers won’t even get into arbitration until after this season. And since he’s only 23, he could bank some cash, give away a few free agent years and still reach the open market before he turns 30. Alex Verdugo is just a bit older but has one more year of team control than Devers. If Boston believed in him enough to make him the centrepiece of their return for giving up a franchise player like Mookie Betts, they must believe he’s capable of helping them down the road.

Yankees

The big-spending Yankees of old seem to have returned, after they blew way past the luxury tax for 2020. But you can never rule out another dump truck of money coming around the corner. They’re the Yankees, after all.

They already struck gold with the first time they signed DJ LeMahieu. He somehow managed to have his best offensive output during a season in which he turned 31, and after leaving the friendly confines of Coors Field. Last month, it didn’t seem like anything was imminent. But that doesn’t mean a deal couldn’t be reached at some point this year to prevent him going on the block. James Paxton is also just one year away from free agency. But given his persistent injuries, would the Yankees bet on him in a big way?

Of course, the 6’7″ elephant in the room is Aaron Judge. The delayed start to the season is giving him a chance to convalesce and approach full health. The slugger will make $8.5MM in 2020 and still has two passes through arbitration remaining before he hits free agency as a 30-year-old. Will the Yankees shell out the big bucks to keep the fan favorite around? Or does his injury history give them pause? Gary Sanchez is in a similar position, but just a few months younger than Judge and with a slightly smaller salary at $5MM.

In the pre-arb department, Gleyber Torres is the shining star. He is sure to reach arbitration after 2020 as a Super Two, meaning he’ll have four chances to get a raise through arbitration unless the Yanks can fork over enough to get him not to. Since he’s on pace to reach the open market at 27, he could give up a few free agent years and still become a free agent at a relatively young age.

Red Sox Acquire Jhonny Pereda From Cubs To Complete Travis Lakins Trade

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The Red Sox announced Monday that they’ve acquired minor league catcher Jhonny Pereda from the Cubs as the player to be named later in the January trade that sent righty Travis Lakins from Boston to Chicago. Lakins, oddly enough, is no longer even in the Cubs organization; he was claimed off waivers by the Orioles just 10 days after the Cubs acquired him. Pereda is not on the 40-man roster, so a corresponding move isn’t necessary for the Sox.

Pereda, 24 next month, had a rough year in Double-A this past season, slashing .241/.336/.305 with just two home runs and 16 doubles in 398 plate appearances. Pereda caught a third of the runners who attempted to steal against him and won a minor league Gold Glove Award, but he also turned in poor framing metrics, per Baseball Prospectus. Baseball America ranked Pereda as the Cubs’ No. 26 prospect last offseason, before the poor 2019 showing, calling him a potential backup catcher with a bit of offensive upside due to his on-base skills (while also pointing out an utter dearth of power).

Regardless of how Pereda turns out, things unfolded in a sub-optimal manner for the Cubs, who presumably hoped that they’d be able to pass Lakins through waivers and retain him without committing a 40-man roster spot to the righty. That didn’t prove to be the case, however, as the Orioles (who hold the No. 2 waiver priority) quickly nabbed him and have continued to carry him on the 40-man roster.

Revisiting The Chris Sale Extension

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The Red Sox were as busy as any team during last spring’s extension flurry, inking a pair of star players to long-term deals that kept them out of the 2019-2020 free agent market.  One of the extensions was a six-year deal with Xander Bogaerts worth $120MM in guaranteed money, a contract that now looks like a pretty sound investment given how Bogaerts followed up a strong 2018 season with an even better 2019 campaign.

The other extension is already off to a rough start.  Chris Sale signed a five-year, $145MM pact covering the 2020-24 seasons, with a club/vesting option for the 2025 campaign worth at least $20MM.  After vastly outperforming his early-career extension with the White Sox (which ended up as a seven-year, $59MM deal once both option years were exercised), Sale now had a new deal that better reflected his status as one of the better pitchers over the last decade.

Exactly one year after that extension was signed, however, the deal looms as a significant misfire for the Red Sox on a couple of different levels.  The club announced on Thursday that Sale would be undergoing Tommy John surgery, which will keep him out of action for whatever becomes of the 2020 season and, in all likelihood, around half of the 2021 season.  The surgery comes on the heels of Sale being shut down last August due to elbow inflamation, and while a platelet-rich plasma injection and some months of rest looked to have the left-hander back on track earlier this winter, Sale was shut down again earlier this month after suffering a flexor strain.

In the short term, this means Boston loses its best pitcher for 2020.  It is a major blow to a rotation that was only okay in 2019, and already had lost David Price after the Sox traded the veteran southpaw and Mookie Betts to the Dodgers in February.  While Sale could conceivably get back to something close to his old form post-surgery and still pitch well over the rest of his contract, the Betts/Price trade plays a critical role in evaluating the big-picture impact of Sale’s extension.

As much as Red Sox ownership has tried to deny it, the luxury tax was clearly a major reason the team was willing to part ways with Betts and Price.  Between moving Betts’ $27.7MM salary and half of the $96MM remaining on Price’s deal, the Sox have gotten themselves under the $208MM Competitive Balance Tax threshold, with Roster Resource projecting a current tax number just shy of $196MM for the 2020 Red Sox.

After two seasons of tax overages, getting under the CBT limit in 2020 would save the Red Sox millions in future tax payments, and theoretically allow them to spend past the threshold again as early as 2021 with only a minimal “first-timer” penalty attached.  As many Boston fans angrily noted over the winter, of course, trading Betts was a pretty extreme measure to achieve these luxury tax savings, and it’s a measure that could have well been avoided had the Red Sox not spent so much money elsewhere….for instance, on Sale’s extension.

Due to deferred money and the structure of the extension, Sale’s contract has a luxury tax number of $25.6MM per season from 2020-24.  Boston’s overall luxury tax payroll stood at roughly $236.3MM at the start of November, so subtracting Sale’s salary would have dropped their figure to $210.7MM, already within shouting distance of the $208MM threshold.  From that point it would’ve been much easier for chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom to make few more cuts and duck under the $208MM line without having to move Betts or Price.

Sale isn’t the only problematic salary on Boston’s payroll, of course, as the four-year, $68MM free agent deal Nathan Eovaldi signed last offseason is also looking questionable after Eovaldi’s injury-plagued 2019.  That said, the Red Sox were far from the only team who thought Eovaldi turned a corner in his breakout 2018 campaign, and they had to outbid the market to re-sign him.

In Sale’s case, the Sox didn’t necessarily have to pursue that extension, particularly given that a few red flags were already apparent.  Sale lost some effectiveness down the stretch in the 2017 season, and had an even shakier ending to his 2018, as shoulder problems limited him to just 17 regular-season innings after July 27 of that year.  The Red Sox were as judicious as possible in spacing out Sale’s appearances during the postseason, when he posted a 4.11 ERA over 15 1/3 innings en route to Boston’s World Series championship.

While Sale had been a very durable pitcher for the bulk of his career, seemingly running out of steam in consecutive seasons should probably have been enough to give the Red Sox some pause before guaranteeing him $145MM through his age 31-35 seasons.  As The Boston Globe’s Peter Abraham recently noted, the Sox may have been motivated to keep Sale out of a lingering regret over the Jon Lester situation from 2014, when the team was perhaps too rigid in extension talks prior to Lester’s final season under contract, which led to Lester being dealt to the Athletics at midseason and then going on deliver several more fine years after signing with the Cubs.

Abraham argues that waiting until after Sale’s final season could have been the more prudent decision for the Sox, as they would have had the added information of Sale’s 2019 numbers.  While the elbow injury was the biggest concern, Sale’s 36% hard-hit ball rate was the highest of his career, and his average fastball velocity dropped by 1.5 mph (to 93.2) from his 2018 speed.  Sale’s 2019 season was the worst of his ten-year MLB career, though given his high standards, a “bad” Chris Sale season was still very solid — a 4.40 ERA, 5.89 K/BB rate, 13.3 K/9 over 147 1/3 innings, and a wealth of advanced metrics (3.39 FIP, 2.93 xFIP, 3.00 SIERA) hinting that Sale’s 4.40 ERA was the result of some bad luck, such as a 1.47 HR/9 that far surpassed his previous career high.

Would this platform year have been enough to make Sale a big player in free agency?  We saw multiple top arms score larger-than-expected contracts this winter, though none of Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, Madison Bumgarner and company had a mid-August shutdown hanging over their heads.  It’s probably safe to assume that Sale would have still landed a pretty sizable multi-year contract if he had been a free agent, though that also assumes he would have tested the market at all.  His elbow injury could have led to Sale accepting a one-year, $17.8MM qualifying offer to remain in Boston, in the hopes that he’d return to better health in 2020 and deliver a prime season that would lead to a bigger deal in the 2020-21 offseason.

Adding another wrinkle to the mix, perhaps the Red Sox don’t even issue Sale a QO in this scenario out of a concern that he might accept it.  Boston’s approach to payroll seemed to shift radically from the start of the 2019 season to the end, as president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski was fired and eventually replaced with Bloom, who was under that rather clumsily-issued edict to trim salaries.  In the wake of Sale’s 2019 season, perhaps the Red Sox would’ve been comfortable just letting Sale walk entirely, thus removing one more contractual concern from their books.

A major-market team like the Sox can weather a big contract not working out, but the franchise’s self-imposed desire to avoid the luxury tax suddenly puts many of the big deals of the Dombrowski era (the Sale extension, plus the signings of Price, Eovaldi, and maybe even J.D. Martinez considering the sheer dollars involved) under the radar.  This being said, blaming Dombrowski for Boston’s financial situation is unfair, as these nine-figure deals aren’t happening without the green light from ownership.

Sale’s extension is a prime example of how no transaction exists in a vacuum, as every signing/extension/trade/release/etc. is itself a response to some other move, and also sets off a chain reaction of other moves.  As Abraham pointed out, who knows if Red Sox ownership makes such a move if they had acted differently with Lester all those years ago, or if maybe Sale (or Price, or Eovaldi, or even Dombrowski) ends up in Boston whatsoever if the Sox had still had Lester in their rotation.  Unfortunately for Sale and the Red Sox, the second-guessing over the extension will continue at least until the southpaw can finally get back on the mound.

AL East Notes: Red Sox, Rays, LeBlanc, Phillips, Orioles

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Should the Red Sox reload or rebuild?  The Boston Globe’s Peter Abraham votes for the latter option, arguing that Chris Sale’s season-ending injury should inspire the Sox to “consider trading anybody outside of Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers, and Eduardo Rodriguez.”  (Personally speaking, I’d also add Christian Vazquez and Andrew Benintendi to Abraham’s no-trade list.)  Such a move may seem drastic, though the Red Sox already faced a tough battle to reach the playoffs in 2020 even with Sale, and that was assuming the left-hander was able to rebound from a down year in 2019.  With building blocks like Bogaerts and Devers already in place and their luxury tax penalties reset to zero, Boston could look to get back into playoff contention as early as 2021 after trading veterans for the right young talent, and then adding some other higher-priced players in trades or free agency.

Some more from around the AL East…

  • It all could be something of a moot point given the indeterminate delay to the 2020 season, though Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times looked at how the Rays’ roster was shaping up in the latter days of Spring Training.  Bullpen-wise, Nick Anderson was looking like the favorite for the majority of save chances, while non-roster invitee Aaron Loup was working towards winning a roster spot, which would have required Tampa to clear a space on its 40-man roster.  Kevan Smith and Chris Herrmann, two other veterans in camp on non-roster invites, had seemingly fallen behind Michael Perez in the backup catcher competition.  Though the Rays were preparing to deploy five regular starting pitchers, Topkin notes that the Rays were still planning to use openers every once in a while, as a way of managing injuries or giving the regular starters a break if necessary.
  • Thursday was the opt-out date in Wade LeBlanc’s minor league contract with the Orioles, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com writes.  We’re reaching the end of the 48-hour window for the club to put LeBlanc on its 40-man roster or release him, assuming some other arrangement hasn’t been made in the wake of the shutdown.  Regardless, Kubatko feels LeBlanc is a lock to make the roster, and getting selected would guaranteed an $800K salary for LeBlanc in 2020.
  • In another piece from Kubatko, manager Brandon Hyde told reporters that no Orioles players are set to undergo any medical procedures.  This includes right-hander Evan Phillips, who dealt with some soreness in his throwing elbow in early March and recently met with Dr. Neal ElAttrache for a second opinion about the issue.

East Notes: Sale, Mets, Nats, Jays

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Boston’s rotation took a hit it may not recover from in 2020 with this week’s news that ace Chris Sale will undergo Tommy John surgery. Chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom, who has been faced with no shortage of adversity during his first several months atop the Red Sox’s baseball department, addressed the surgery decision this week, as Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald details. The left-handed Sale dealt with elbow problems last season, but Bloom and the Red Sox don’t regret putting off his procedure. “Based on everything that went on last summer, the symptoms, the imaging, it seemed very reasonable to me to take that time off and try to rest, strengthen everything and hope for a successful path forward,” Bloom said. “Obviously up until (he felt pain) in early March, there was every indication that he was doing great.” Indeed, it was just this Wednesday that Sale seemed to be progressing in his recovery from a flexor strain. That changed a day later, and now Boston will have to go without its best pitcher until sometime in 2021.

  • The Mets have optioned shortstop Andres Gimenez, right-hander Tyler Bashlor and catcher Ali Sanchez to Triple-A Syracuse, Mike Puma of the New York Post tweets. Bashlor’s the lone member of the trio with major league experience, but he endured immense struggles as a Met last year. The most promising player in the group is the 21-year-old Gimenez, whom MLB.com ranks as the sport’s 84th-best prospect. Gimenez could be a long-term factor in the Mets’ infield, though he hasn’t advanced past Double-A ball yet. He batted .250/.309/.387 with nine home runs and 28 stolen bases over 479 plate appearances at that level last season.
  • The Nationals released reliever Hunter Strickland last weekend, and it turns out that the move was somewhat costly for the club. Had the Nats cut ties with Strickland a week earlier, they would have only had to pay him one-sixth of his $1.6MM salary, Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com notes. By parting with Strickland when it did, though, Washington had to fork over a fourth of his money; as a result, it lost $133K or so, per Zuckerman.
  • The coronavirus led the Criminal Court Complex in Clearwater, Fla., to push back Blue Jays catcher Reese McGuire’s court date to April 20, Shi Davidi of Sportsnet relays. McGuire had been scheduled to appear in court Monday as a result of his Feb. 7 arrest on a charge of “exposure of sexual organs,” a first-degree misdemeanor. He could face one year in jail and fines up to $1K.

Latest On Red Sox Sign Stealing Investigation

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Public court proceedings have opened a knothole for peering into the state of the MLB investigation into the Red Sox regarding illicit electronic sign stealing. The Athletic’s Daniel Kaplan reported on the most recent developments (subscription link).

It was once anticipated that we’d see some resolution this spring. While reports have indicated that the Boston organization wasn’t terribly worried about significant blowback — at least, in comparison to the fury that met the Astros — it was entirely unclear just what commissioner Rob Manfred would discover and do about allegations that the Red Sox wrongly utilized video for sign-stealing in 2018.

This subject has quite rightly faded to the background as a global crisis unfolds. But it’s a big deal in regular baseball terms. And now it seems there could be more at stake than had previously been let on.

We owe our window of insight to a lawsuit filed by daily fantasy players. Today the court held oral arguments on the team’s motion to dismiss. Based upon the questions posed by the judge, it’s rather clear that Manfred has reached a finding of some wrongdoing — even if the public isn’t yet aware of the specifics.

Just what Manfred found and what punishment he has or will mete out isn’t quite clear. The team’s lawyer did acknowledge that the Sox accept some of the underlying factual findings, but left ambiguous what they actually are. “Certainly, we did find on certain occasions in 2017, that this electronic device was used to communicate sign information.”

The Sox’ attorney also made clear the team doesn’t agree (at least in the litigation context) with Manfred’s broader determinations. In particular, the attorney argued, the team is “entitled to disagree that that activity happened at the club level.” That statement certainly could be read to imply that Manfred identified participation in illicit activities that went beyond uniformed personnel.

It’s rather frustrating to see such long-running uncertainty. But the evolution of the Astros scandal surely played a role in the slow unfolding of the Red Sox case. And the league is understandably focused on much more pressing matters at the moment. Today’s drip of information doesn’t tell us a whole lot, but does increase the intrigue.

Ryan Weber Likely To Be In Red Sox’ Rotation

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Red Sox right-hander Ryan Weber entered camp hoping to win a battle for the fifth and final spot in the rotation, but manager Ron Roenicke has suggested that the 29-year-old now looks like the team’s fourth starter, per the Boston Herald’s Jason Mastrodonato.

Weber inked a minor league deal with the Red Sox in December 2018 and found himself in the big leagues as early as May, when now-former Sox lefty David Price hit the injured list. He spent the rest of the season bouncing between Pawtucket and Boston, ultimately appearing in 18 games and pitching to a 5.08 ERA in 40 2/3 innings. That’s not a particularly appealing number, of course, but Weber’s 4.20 FIP was much more palatable, and there’s reason to think he could be more effective yet.

Among the 436 pitchers who had 100 balls put into play against them in 2019, Weber posted the 17th-lowest hard-hit rate, per Statcast. Weber exhibited good control both in Triple-A and the Majors, and over the course of his pro career, his sinker has generated above-average ground-ball rates each year. The Boston Globe’s Peter Abraham wrote earlier in the month that the Sox were intrigued by the small handful of cutters that Weber threw last season and believe the pitch could develop into a quality offering with more use. To his credit, Weber also has an excellent Triple-A track record, having pitched to a 2.85 ERA in 360 1/3 innings there.

Even if Weber does surface as a serviceable rotation piece, Boston’s collection of starters is shaky following yesterday’s announcement that Chris Sale will miss the 2020 season due to Tommy John surgery. Eduardo Rodriguez turned in the finest season of his career in 2019 and should be a solid leader of the group. But right-hander Nathan Eovaldi hasn’t made more than 21 starts in a season since 2015, and lefty Martin Perez is fresh off a second consecutive sub-par season. The fifth spot in the rotation could go to an opener, although Mastrodonato and other reporters that spoke with Roenicke yesterday noted that he also mentioned lefty Brian Johnson as a possibility.

Sox fans may hope that righty Collin McHugh, signed as a free agent earlier this month, could eventually emerge as an option. However, The Athletic’s Chad Jennings wrote yesterday (subscription required) that McHugh still hasn’t begun a throwing program as he works back from elbow troubles of his own. He’s reportedly been cleared to do so, although workouts for all players are in limbo to some extent, given the suspended state of play. Perhaps by the time the season eventually gets underway, he’ll be built up, but it’s difficult to pencil him in even as a tentative rotation piece for the time being.

The Red Sox’ lineup should still be solid even without Mookie Betts, anchored by a formidable trio of Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts and J.D. Martinez. But between Sale’s surgery, the trade of Price and the lack of a steady addition in the offseason, Boston’s starting staff looks like it’ll be a patchwork unit.

Red Sox Option Josh Osich

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The Red Sox have optioned left-handed reliever Josh Osich to Triple-A Pawtucket, chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom announced Thursday (via Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe).

Osich, whom the Red Sox claimed from the White Sox last October, was competing for a spot in Boston’s bullpen before the coronavirus reared its ugly head. The 31-year-old garnered quite a bit of experience between the Giants and White Sox from 2015-19, though he wasn’t especially effective during that span. Thus far, despite a strong 48.5 percent groundball rate, Osich has pitched to a 4.88 ERA/5.14 FIP with 7.95 K/9 and 3.64 BB/9.

To his credit, Osich has been tough for same-handed hitters to deal with, as shown by their .286 weighted on-base average against him during his career. However, righties have smacked him around for a .375 wOBA. That’s not going to cut it in a league that will implement a three-batter minimum rule for pitchers whenever the regular season starts.

Chris Sale To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

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Red Sox left-hander Chris Sale will undergo Tommy John surgery, as per a team announcement.  Sale will be out of action for roughly the next 12-15 months, as per the usual recovery timeline, and will miss all of the 2020 season.

The news less than three weeks after Sale was diagnosed with a flexor strain, following some elbow soreness in his throwing elbow.  Sale only resumed throwing yesterday, though it’s fair to assume that he experienced further discomfort that resulted in today’s decision.

The Red Sox press release didn’t include any actual date for Sale’s surgery, and Joel Sherman of the New York Post speculated that it could perhaps be some time before Sale actually goes under the knife, given how elective medical procedures are increasingly being canceled (both in the United States and all around the world) in order to give hospitals and doctors more time to focus on the coronavirus pandemic.  It’s also worth wondering if the uncertainty surrounding how much (or any) of the 2020 season will be played could have contributed to Sale’s decision, as he perhaps figured that missing time now was preferable to missing time when games were firmly on the schedule.  Regardless, Sale will now miss whatever exists of the 2020 campaign and also likely at least two or three months of the 2021 season.

Due to his relatively thin stature and his unique throwing motion, durability questions dogged Sale as far back as his days as a vaunted prospect coming out of Florida Gulf Coast University, to the point that he dropped to the White Sox with the 13th pick of the 2010 draft.  Sale proved those criticisms wrong after almost a full decade as one of the game’s best starters, with a career 3.03 ERA, 11.1 K/9, and the best career K/BB rate (5.37) in baseball history, while also averaging 205 innings per season between 2012-17.

The Red Sox acquired Sale in a December 2016 blockbuster trade that saw budding superstar Yoan Moncada go to Chicago, though the hefty price tag was worth it from Boston’s perspective, given Sale’s strong results for the club and his role in helping the Red Sox win the 2018 World Series.  That said, Sale seemed to wear down at the end of the 2017 season and was bothered by shoulder problems late in the 2018 campaign, which led the Sox to limit his innings down the stretch and during their postseason run.

Those injury concerns didn’t stop Boston from signing Sale to a five-year, $145MM extension almost exactly one year ago.  That deal covered the 2020-24 seasons, meaning the Red Sox won’t see any return on that investment for at least the next 15 months.  Warning signs already began to crop up last season, as Sale got off to a slow start and only somewhat looked like himself (a career-high 4.40 ERA, though advanced metrics painted a much more favorable picture of his 2019 performance) over 147 1/3 innings before being shut down in mid-August due to elbow inflammation.  Treatment for that inflammation included a platelet-rich plasma injection in Sale’s elbow, and he was seemingly making good progress in his offseason workouts before a bout of pneumonia set him back a couple of weeks.

Given that so much of Boston’s offseason revolved around getting under the luxury tax threshold, the Sale extension now looms as a seriously questionable decision.  If Sale hadn’t been extended and his $25.6MM average annual value wasn’t on the team’s books, the Red Sox wouldn’t have faced nearly the (self-imposed) crunch to reset their tax bill after two years of overages.  This could have meant the Sox may have explored other, lower-level methods of getting under the $208MM threshold rather than the extreme measure of trading Mookie Betts and David Price to the Dodgers.

With Sale now out of the picture entirely for 2020, Eduardo Rodriguez is now the ace of the Red Sox rotation following the lefty’s big 2019 performance.  E-Rod leaves a staff that is severely lacking in sure things, as Nathan Eovaldi, Martin Perez, and Collin McHugh are all looking to rebound from either injury or inconsistency last season (McHugh could even still wind up in the bullpen).  A long list of names were competing for the final two rotation jobs before Spring Training was halted, and manager Ron Roenicke hinted that the Sox would use an opener/bulk pitcher strategy for at least one of the two slots.

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