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AL East Notes: Blue Jays, Blanton, Yankees, Pineda

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On this day in 1966, the Orioles acquired catcher Cam Carreon from the Indians in exchange for leftfielder Lou Piniella.  Sweet Lou became an everyday major leaguer in 1969 with the Royals and made his way back to the American League East with the Bombers in 1974.  Here's what's happening in the AL East today..

  • Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos scouted today's Phillies game and left after Joe Blanton exited the game, tweets Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports.  
  • Even though Brandon League has blossomed into an All-Star closer for the Mariners, Anthopoulos has no regrets about the trade that shipped League to Seattle and brought Brandon Morrow to Toronto, writes Tyler Kepner of the New York Times.  The Blue Jays signed Morrow to three-year, $21MM contract extension this winter with a team option for 2015.
  • Red Sox right-hander Michael Bowden is out-of-options and fighting to make the big league roster, writes Alex Speier of WEEI.com.  The 25-year-old appeared in 14 games for the BoSox last season.
  • There's a great deal of excitement surrounding Michael Pineda as he gets set for his first year in pinstripes, but GM Brian Cashman is looking to pump the brakes on fans' expectations for him, writes Jeff Bradley of the Star-Ledger.  Cashman doesn't view Pineda as an "instant number two" but instead as a long-term asset with a great deal of promise.

Quick Hits: Yankees, Orioles, Ramirez, Red Sox

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Friday night linkage..

Red Sox Notes: Rotation, Tazawa, Melancon

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The latest on the Red Sox, via Alex Speier of WEEI.com…

AL East Notes: Rivera, Roberts, Moore, Cherington

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It was on this day in 1985 that the Blue Jays and Dave Stieb finalized one of the more unique contracts in baseball history — an 11-year deal worth a guaranteed $16.6MM and (with incentives) possibly worth as much as $25MM.  Larry Stone of the Seattle Times looked back at the contract in 2010, noting that while the Jays absorbed some criticism for the deal at the time, they got a bargain in the long run when Stieb developed into one of the best pitchers of his era.  In 1991, the Jays reworked three years of the contract to pay Stieb an extra $4.35MM as a gesture of gratitude for his performance.

Here's some news from all around the AL East…

  • Yankees closer Mariano Rivera denied a New York Post report from yesterday that claimed he would announce his possible retirement plans before the All-Star Break.  Rivera told Wallace Matthews of ESPN New York that "nothing's changed" about his future plans and that he will "tell everybody what my plans are at the same time after the season."
  • Brian Roberts isn't sure when, or even if, he'll be able to return to the Orioles following a series of concussions, he tells Jon Heyman of CBS Sports.  Roberts says he has stopped trying to guess when he may be able to resume his career, though he notes that his recovery is "progressing" and he "has more good days than bad days."
  • Rays southpaw Matt Moore tops Baseball America's preseason list of the top 20 rookies in the game.  Moore is the only AL East representative on the list, though former Yankee prospect Jesus Montero (now with the Mariners) clocks in at the #3 position.
  • "We need some guys to step up on our pitching staff," Red Sox GM Ben Cherington tells MLB.com's Ian Browne.  The Sox will be looking at pitching or outfield depth as they conduct their usual scouting of other teams' Spring Training camps.  Also in this in-depth interview, Cherington discusses his first winter as a general manager, the difficulty in parting with long-time Red Sox stars Jason Varitek and Tim Wakefield, and what he learned from Theo Epstein.
  • The Blue Jays may be the only team that could be a fit for Derrek Lee, writes Fangraphs' Chris Cwik.  Lee could be an alternative to Adam Lind at first if Lind struggles, or Lee could at least platoon if Lind again struggles to hit left-handed pitching.  Though Cwik was pretty hesitant about Lee's chances of playing anywhere in the Majors in 2012, I'm not sure Toronto works as a landing spot either; the Jays have Edwin Encarnacion backing up at first, Travis Snider or Eric Thames as DH candidates, plus Ben Francisco and Rajai Davis as right-handed bench bats.   

The Next Frontier Of Baseball Analysis

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The Sloan Sports Analytics Conference assembled an excellent baseball panel this year in Boston.  Host Rob Neyer asked participants their thoughts on the next frontier in baseball analysis, and a few highlights follow.

Red Sox senior advisor of baseball operations Bill James gave a two-part answer.  First, James feels "one of the things we most need to understand better is how levels of competition fit together so that the information we get from one level can be interpreted at another level in a way that is more helpful."  James says "we really don't have a clue" how levels such as college, Double-A, and Japan fit together.  Second, James believes that teams and players act in their best interest, even if it's not beneficial for the game as a whole.  He gave an example of a player stepping out of the box to regain his focus.  That 30 second break helps the player perform his best, but delays of this nature are bad for baseball in general, because they cause many to consider the game boring to watch.

Astros GM Jeff Luhnow wasn't actually answering Neyer's question at the time, but he volunteered his thoughts, saying, "The frontier from my perspective is really turning that player evaluation into player valuation.  When Scott [Boras] and I have a conversation about a player, this player may be 12 runs above average and another player might be 10 runs above average, but there's so many other factors that go into whether I'm going to be willing to pay more or less for that player.  For example, we always talk about the most likely outcome for this player, but what's the distribution look like?  Is there a 10% chance that he's below replacement level, is there a 10% chance that he's above superstar level?"

Indians president Mark Shapiro spoke of an "infinite number of things that I don't know," but mentioned during the conference that "medical is an absolute separator."  Agent Scott Boras focused on psychology, as a means to increasing the chances of players reaching their potential.  Rays baseball operations special assistant Rocco Baldelli wonders why some players develop the ability to hit, and some do not.

The panel provided a wide array of answers, but Luhnow's resonated most with me.  We often apply straightforward methods to determine what constitutes a good free agent signing, but projecting a player's WAR and multiplying by the price of a win is just a starting point.  Both Luhnow and Shapiro lamented the inability to tell fans all the factors that went into a decision, so unfortunately there will always be missing information for those outside the front office. 

Extension Candidate: Jacoby Ellsbury

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Icon_13052718There was some talk out of Boston about the Red Sox exploring a multiyear deal with Jacoby Ellsbury this offseason, though it's perhaps no surprise the club decided to handle its front-office shakeup and more immediate player concerns before trying to lock up a player who is still under team control through 2013.  There is likely also a sense of wanting to see exactly they really have in Ellsbury before committing to a major contract.

Last season, Ellsbury didn't only bounce back from an injury-riddled 2010, he dramatically raised his own performance ceiling.  Ellsbury finished second in AL MVP voting after slugging 32 homers and hitting .321/.376/.552 in a league-best 732 plate appearances, just to erase any doubts about his durability.  All three totals in his slash line were career highs but the power was particularly surprising — Ellsbury had hit just 30 homers in his entire major and minor league career (2705 plate appearances) before 2011.  To top it off, Elsbury also provided excellent center field defense (a 15.7 UZR/150 and a Gold Glove) and stole 39 bases.

The Red Sox avoided arbitration with Ellsbury by agreeing to an $8.05MM deal for 2012, a significant bump up from his $2.4MM 2011 salary.  If Ellsbury comes even close to repeating his performance from last season, he'll earn another big raise for his last arbitration year; MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith projected as much as a $13MM salary for Ellsbury in 2013.

For our long-term price range, let's look at the contracts received by Matt Kemp and Ellsbury's teammate Carl Crawford over the last two offseasons.  Kemp was also heading into his last arbitration year when he signed an eight-year, $160MM extension with the Dodgers in November.  Crawford, meanwhile, was 29 (Ellsbury hits that age in September) when he signed his seven-year, $142MM free agent deal with the Red Sox on the open market.

Hard as it would've been to believe 12 months ago, power is the key statistic in determining the size of Ellsbury's extension.  If he puts up another 30-homer season, agent Scott Boras will argue that Ellsbury is now a proven five-tool threat and deserves a Kemp-like contract.  If Ellsbury's homer total drops even to around 20 dingers, the Red Sox will have an argument for a slightly lesser but still-sizeable contract akin to Crawford's deal. 

Of the five 2012 projections used by Fangraphs, all have Ellsbury's OPS dropping significantly next season, with three of five forecasting a drop of more than 100 OPS points.  It's worth noting that Ellsbury's center field defense is also not quite a proven commodity.  He posted a -10.0 UZR/150 playing the position in 2009, leading to the Red Sox signing Mike Cameron that offseason to take over in center.

Presuming Ellsbury, like most players, doesn't want to talk contract once the season begins, Boston has a month to work out an extension while they still have some leverage over the length of the deal.  Right now, the Red Sox could aim for a six-year extension that covers Ellsbury's last arbitration year and his first five free agent seasons.  This would cover Ellsbury through his age-34 season, sparing the club at least one year of paying $20MM to a player in his mid-thirties (though the Sox could add a club option).  Of course, as noted earlier, if Ellsbury's power surge continues into the start of the 2012 campaign, the leverage swings back in his direction and Boras will look for a minimum of seven years in any new contract.  

Boras usually advises his clients to test the free agent market, so it wouldn't be a surprise to see the 2012-13 offseason also pass without a multiyear deal between Ellsbury and the Red Sox.  Two high-profile Boras clients have recently signed extensions prior to free agency — Carlos Gonzalez's seven-year, $80MM deal with the Rockies and Jered Weaver's five-year, $85MM deal with the Angels — but neither of those contracts matches Ellsbury's situation.  Gonzalez was still four years away from free agency and Weaver specifically wanted to stay in Anaheim, even at the cost of leaving millions on the table in free agency.

Though Boston has been conscious of exceeding the luxury tax limit on payroll this winter, the team obviously has the money to pay Ellsbury fair value if they want to make him part of their long-term future.  A lot depends on what Ellsbury does at the plate in 2012, but a seven-year, $133MM deal ($13MM in 2013 to match his arbitration number and then an average of $20MM in each of the following six years) is definitely within reach.  Ellsbury would join Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez as Red Sox players locked up through at least 2017.  With Jon Lester, Dustin Pedroia and Clay Buchholz all on reasonable contracts that include equally reasonable team options, Boston's long-term payroll is relatively flexible for such a big-market franchise. 

Photo courtesy of Tony Ding/Icon SMI

Cafardo On Jones, Nationals, Floyd, Indians, Red Sox

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Agent Scott Boras told Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe that he expects trade deadline activity to decrease because the superpowers in baseball are going to save money on the luxury tax and can’t spend it in the draft.  Boras was in attendance for the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference in Boston and our own Tim Dierkes sat down for an interview with the super agent.  Here's more from Cafardo's Sunday column..

  • The Orioles' Adam Jones keeps popping up in trade discussions with the Nationals, but O's sources indicate that there’s very little chance he'll be dealt.  The Nats are trying to figure out center field, and for the moment they’re content with using Jayson Werth, Roger Bernadina, and Rick Ankiel.  However, they will be scouting Michael Bourn, B.J. Upton, Gerardo Parra, and Peter Bourjos in spring training.
  • White Sox right-hander Gavin Floyd could be in play for the Blue Jays or Red Sox.  The White Sox don’t appear eager to move Floyd, but GM Kenny Williams wouldn’t be shy if it brought him a decent bounty in return.
  • The Indians will try to fill in for Grady Sizemore with Michael Brantley, but their scouts are looking for a center field option in the trade market.
  • Free agent Adonis Garcia is drawing interest from several teams, but the Red Sox aren’t overly enamored, according to a team source.
  • Roy Oswalt is still in play and later in camp the Red Sox could put on a full-court press for him.
  • The Rays are looking for a catcher to back up Jose Molina and Boras may look to put Ivan Rodriguez in that spot.
  • There seems to be concern that the Astros are shooting themselves in the foot by moving starter Brett Myers into the closer role as he is one of the veterans they have been trying to deal.  Teams typically need innings-eaters over late-inning relievers.
  • Cafardo wonders aloud if Terry Francona will land with the Mets when he resumes his managerial career.

Quick Hits: Cespedes, Nationals, Axford, Calero

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Links for Saturday afternoon..

  • Yoenis Cespedes' deal with the Athletics is now official, according to the club's Twitter account.  Cespedes' deal is for four years and is reportedly worth $36MM. 
  • In a corresponding move, the A's opened a spot for Cespedes on the 40-man roster by placing Scott Sizemore on the 60-day disabled list.  Sizemore will miss the entire 2012 campaign after tearing his left ACL.
  • Outfielders Rick Ankiel and Brett Carroll, who are both on minor league deals, are making a solid case to make the Nationals' major league squad, writes Bill Ladson of MLB.com.
  • Although people in the Nationals organization like Davey Johnson wanted him to return, Livan Hernandez says that he knew early on that his time was up in Washington, tweets Ladson.
  • The Brewers renewed the contract of right-hander John Axford this afternoon and the two sides continue to talk about a multiyear deal, tweets Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel.
  • Right-hander Kiko Calero is considering a procedure similar to what Bartolo Colon underwent as he weighs a comeback, according to Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com (via Twitter).
  • Both the Yankees and Red Sox are operating differently in 2012 thanks to the luxury tax threshold of the new Collective Bargaining Agreement, writes Alex Speier of WEEI.com.  The new provision, Speier writes, creates the possibility for more payroll parity than the game has seen in years.

Minor Moves: Red Sox, Cubs, Rockies, Nationals

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We'll keep track of today's minor moves here…

  • Right-hander Scott Atchison signed a minor league contract with the Red Sox after being removed from the 40-man roster and clearing waivers, according to Matt Eddy of Baseball America.
  • The Cubs signed left-hander Nate Robertson to a minor league deal, Eddy writes.  Robertson had a 7.14 ERA with 5.3 K/9 and 3.7 BB/9 in 18 starts with the Mariners' Triple-A affiliate last season.
  • The Rockies signed left-handed pitcher Royce Ring, according to Eddy.  The former first-round pick saw time in the majors for four different clubs between 2005-2010.  Ring spent time with the Triple-A affiliates for Seattle and Boston last season.
  • The Nationals signed right-hander Mike Schultz, who has one big league inning to his credit from his time with Arizona in 2007.  The 32-year-old has been pitching well in Japan for the last four years, posting a 2.55 ERA with 7.5 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9.
  • MLBTR has learned that the Orioles signed catcher Josh Johnson.  The 29-year-old played the last three years in the Atlantic League but prior to that spent time with the Rays and Astros Triple-A affiliates.
  • The Red Sox signed right-handed pitchers Garrett Mock and Billy Buckner to minor league deals and will report to minor league camp, an industry source tells Alex Speier of WEEI.com.  Mock, 28, was once considered a top pitching prospect by Washington but strugged in 2011 as he posted a 6.39 ERA with 9.3 K/9 and 5.3 BB/9.  Buckner, meanwhile, made 21 starts and two relief appearances for the Rockies' Triple-A affiliate in 2011. 
  • The Dodgers signed right-hander Blake Johnson and shortstop Brandon Mims to minor league deals following this week's open tryout, Dylan Hernandez of the LA Times tweets. Johnson spent the 2011 season in the upper minors with the Royals and Rockies, posting a 5.59 ERA in 77 1/3 innings. Mims, 19, was the Blue Jays' ninth round selection in 2010.
  • The Orioles signed 27-year-old Mexican pitcher Miguel Gonzalez to a minor league deal, the pitcher told Fernando Ballesteros at Puro Béisbol (link in Spanish). Gonzalez posted decent strikeout rates across three levels in the Red Sox system last year after two years away from the minors. He told Ballesteros he will start off at Triple-A for the Orioles. 

AL East Notes: Ortiz, Rays, Bundy, Blue Jays

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Jason Varitek, Tim Wakefield and Jorge Posada have been fixtures in the AL East for the past 15 years, but they've all retired this offseason. Here are some links for Friday, starting with even more retirement talk…

  • David Ortiz says he wants to keep playing for at least a couple more years, according to Rob Bradford of WEEI.com. "As long as I feel good and I can swing the bat well I want to keep on playing," the 36-year-old said.
  • Manager Joe Maddon told Newsday's Ken Davidoff that he believes the Rays can establish the standard for winning with a small payroll. Executive VP of baseball operations Andrew Friedman said the club isn't taking success for granted, even after three playoff berths in four seasons. “It's more about pushing forward and being driven by future success," he said. 
  • Jim Callis of Baseball America told Steve Melewski of MASNsports.com that the muscular frame of Orioles prospect Dylan Bundy isn't cause for concern. Callis said Bundy has a loose and fluid delivery despite his bulk.
  • Callis also suggested infield prospects Manny Machado and Jonathan Schoop should both play shortstop in 2012 so the Orioles know whether they can handle the position long-term.
  • Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos joined Greg Brady & Jim Lang on Sportsnet 590 the FAN and said Kyle Drabek is opening up some eyes and starting to make strides. The 24-year-old right-hander walked 55 in 78 2/3 innings last year.
  • Anthopoulos said the trade market is quiet now, though he expects out-of-options players to become available toward the end of the month.
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