Angels Notes: Dipoto, Scioscia, Hanson, Calhoun
The Angels haven't lost more than two consecutive games since being swept by the Indians on Aug. 19-21. Since that time, the Halos are 18-6, boosting their overall record to 73-77. While that's hardly an impressive overall number, it likely bodes well for both GM Jerry Dipoto and manager Mike Scioscia to finish on a high note. Both have seen their job security come into question over the past several months. Here's more on that pair and the rest of the Angels…
- Scioscia is expressing confidence to friends that he will return as the Halos' manager in 2014, writes Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports within his latest column. Previous reports have indicated that either Scioscia or Dipoto will be replaced, and Rosenthal points out that firing Dipoto would be a trickier move from an organizational standpoint. Dipoto has made several hires in scouting and player development that would likely be replaced, and the same goes for assistant GM Scott Servais.
- Tommy Hanson could very well be non-tendered, writes MLB.com's Alden Gonzalez, but Hanson told Gonzalez that he's not thinking about the possibility of a non-tender this offseason. His focus is on putting together a strong finish to a disappointing year. Scioscia said he wouldn't guarantee Hanson, who re-joined the club yesterday, another start this season and wondered what happened to the Hanson who showed up in his first start off the disabled list: "The one game he came back off the DL, his stuff was eye-opening, and he hasn't repeated that." Hanson allowed one run on four hits and no walks with eight strikeouts in 5 1/3 innings that day.
- More from Gonzalez, who wonders about the trade value of J.B. Shuck and Kole Calhoun as opposed to Peter Bourjos after another injury-shortened season, noting that he feels the Angels would sell high on Calhoun and Shuck (Twitter link). Calhoun would have considerably more vaule in a trade than Shuck, in my opinion.
Cafardo On Cano, Angels, Rangers, Cruz
In today's column, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe writes that there is growing resentment towards the one-game playoff. “I would like to see it changed to two of three,” said the Red Sox’ Jonny Gomes. “At least then you feel as if you lose, you had three games. I like the fact the two wild cards play, that part is fine, and I understand the drama of the one game, but it’s not fair. You see what’s happening now. These teams are fighting and clawing to get one of those two spots, then let the teams who make it have a fair chance to advance.” Here's more from Cafardo..
- Most industry sources believe the Dodgers won’t be interested in Robinson Cano, but Cafardo says that the Angels and Tigers are worth keeping an eye on. Cafardo also heard someone theorize that the Mets could pull a fast one and get in the mix for Cano. There's no evidence of that happening, but it would keep the star second baseman in his desired long-term location.
- There are still no signs that the Rangers will trade Elvis Andrus or Jurickson Profar this offseason, but dealing Ian Kinsler could be a legitimate option, with Andrus or Profar playing second base in 2014. However, the 31-year-old's contract is an issue as he has four years remaining at $57MM with an option for 2018. He's not having his sharpest season either, hitting .273/.340/.403 versus a line of .272/.350/.460 heading into 2013.
- Speaking of Texas, it wouldn't be shocking to see the Rangers re-sign Nelson Cruz despite the 50-game PED suspension. Cruz has been the missing cog in the Rangers’ recent slump and also happens to be popular in the clubhouse. Even with Alex Rios, Texas will still be in the market for a DH/outfielder this this winter and it could be as simple as re-signing Cruz.
- Alfredo Aceves is now home in Mexico after leaving Fort Myers, Florida and is unlikely to ever don a Red Sox uniform again. One American League GM blasted the pitcher for his behavior but said that he'll likely get another chance somewhere because of his talent.
- If Carlos Beltran does not re-sign with the Cardinals, Cafardo posits that he would be the ideal DH/occasional outfielder for the Orioles.
- Tigers shortstop Jhonny Peralta is “likely going to be someone’s third baseman” next season, one Detroit teammate said.
- Cafardo wonders if Cal Ripken could emerge as a candidate to replace Davey Johnson as manager of the Nationals. Of course, Ripken is tied to the local competition, but he has made it clear that he wants to be a skipper. Meanwhile, Buck Showalter is on solid footing with the Orioles and it would allow Ripken to stay in the area.
- Not a huge surprise, but Cafardo doesn't believe the Red Sox will exercise Matt Thornton's $6MM option for next season.
Quick Hits: GMs, Comp Picks, 2013 Free Agents
On this day in 2007, Terry Ryan announced that he would step aside from his post as the Twins general manager at the end of the season. As MLBTR's Tim Dierkes noted, Ryan's history was checkered at best at the time. Of course, as a read through this site's most recent post would indicate, Ryan is now back at the helm. Though the team has yet to post more than seventy wins in a season since Ryan returned in November of 2011, Minnesota stands at 15th in ESPN's latest future power rankings on the strength of its minor league system. While Ryan has long been said to have his job as long as he wants to keep it, some other GMs may not be so lucky …
- There are four general managers around the league who could soon be replaced, writes Peter Gammons of GammonsDaily.com. According to Gammons, two of those — Jerry Dipoto of the Angels and Larry Beinfest of the Marlins – have arguably been undone by meddling owners. (Gammons cites Arte Moreno's $365MM investment in Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton, and Jeffrey Loria's propensity for "whimsically run[ning] everything.") Meanwhile, Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik may not survive to see whether the team's top young pitching talent can drive a winner. And Rockies GM Dan O'Dowd — the game's fourth-longest tenured GM — has yet to figure out how to craft a squad that can win away from Coors field. (For what it's worth, O'Dowd was in charge for the franchise's lone season with a winning road record, when it posted a 41-40 mark in 2009.)
- It would be ridiculous to consider Rangers GM Jon Daniels among those at risk, writes Baseball Nation's Grant Brisbee. While he surely could have sacrificed future value to win at all costs this season, says Brisbee, Daniels was prudent not to and still delivered a team that should qualify for the post-season.
- Teams must determine whether to make outgoing free agents a qualifying offer just five days after the conclusion of this year's World Series, and those decisions will play a major role in setting the stage for the 2014 free agent market. For non-obvious candidates, writes Dave Cameron of Fangraphs, an important part of the equation lies in valuing the compensation pick that the team would receive if the player declines the offer and then signs with another club. Working off of a rough valuation of international signing slot dollars, Cameron opines that teams could value the dollars spent on a comp pick as much as three-to-four times higher than money the team could spend outside the draft. As he explains, this would imply that there is substantial excess value in obtaining non-marketable draft picks, which could move the needle in favor of making qualifying offers in marginal situations.
- As we prepare to weigh a new class of free agents, CBSSports.com's Jon Heyman ranks the best signings of 2013. His top three are a collection of veterans whose contributions have vastly outweighed the relatively meager financial commitments that they received: Pirates starter Francisco Liriano, Red Sox reliever Koji Uehara, and Athletics starter Bartolo Colon. Next on his list is Boston's David Ortiz, who as Heyman notes was the only player to accept a qualifying offer in the first year of the system.
Poll: The Angels’ Best Trade Chip
Much has been made of the Angels' need for young pitching this offseason, and there's been plenty of speculation that they'll have to acquire it via trade. Howie Kendrick, Mark Trumbo, Erick Aybar and Peter Bourjos are the names that come up most frequently when discussing the Halos' quest to acquire arms. While the team is reportedly more open to trading Kendrick than the others, they did discuss Aybar with the Cardinals this summer, and the Pirates attempted to land Trumbo, suggesting those names could surface in negotiations this winter.
Kendrick, 30, has batted .301/.341/.437 with 11 homers this season while delivering yet another season of solid defense at second base. He's under contract through 2015 and will earn $9.35MM in each of the next two seasons as he finishes out the four-year extension he signed prior to the 2012 campaign. Given the thin market for free agent second basemen, teams in need of an upgrade at the keystone may find Kendrick to be a highly appealing alternative.
Trumbo, who turns 28 in January, is having a down season at .244/.299/.471. He does have 32 homers and the best walk rate of his career (7.4 percent), and he's once again graded out as a plus defender at first base according to UZR and The Fielding Bible. Trumbo's on-base skills have long been questioned, but his walk rate has increased steadily since his rookie campaign. He'll be arbitration eligible for the first time this offseason and is controlled through 2016.
Aybar will turn 30 in January and is controlled through 2016 at $8.5MM per season. His stock is down thanks to a .267/.301/.380 batting line, but historically speaking he's been a plus offensive player at shortstop. He rarely walks but he also rarely strikes out (9.5 percent). It's not a surprise to see a decline in his stolen base total and advanced defensive metrics in a season where he's been slowed by heel and hamstring injuries, but he's a nice rebound candidate due to his age and track record.
The 26-year-old Bourjos is out for the season thanks to a fractured wrist but hit .274/.333/.377 in 55 games this year. Over the course of his career, he's graded out as one of baseball's best defenders in center and done so with an adjusted OPS that pegs him as a roughly league-average hitter. Like Trumbo, he's arbitration eligible for the first time this winter and can be controlled through 2016.
Realistically, Mike Trout is the best trade chip in all of baseball, but if we want to stick to realism, there's no chance the Angels would trade him, so he's been left off this poll. With all of this said, let's open up the vote.
Which is the most valuable trade chip?
-
Mark Trumbo 61% (6,815)
-
Howie Kendrick 24% (2,635)
-
Peter Bourjos 10% (1,081)
-
Erick Aybar 5% (560)
Total votes: 11,091
Rosenthal On Angels, Gibson, LaRoche, Dodgers
Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports brings us his latest edition of Full Count this weekend. Let's take a look inside..
- There's still a month to go in the regular season, but the Angels are already scouting pitchers they could go after in free agency or in trades. The needs in the rotation will be less glaring if they re-sign Jason Vargas – that would give them a front four of Jered Weaver, C.J. Wilson, Garrett Richards, and Vargas. The Halos nearly traded Howie Kendrick for a package headlined by the Dodgers' Zach Lee in July and they could pursue something similar with teams deep in young starters this offseason, like the Nationals and Mets.
- A number of Diamondbacks players are frustrated with manager Kirk Gibson's changing lineups and they relate more with third base coach Matt Williams, but he could leave to manage the Nationals or another club once the season is through. However, the D'Backs have no plans to replace Gibson with Williams or anyone else.
- The first base free agent market will be thin this offseason with Justin Morneau, James Loney, and Mike Napoli headlining the class. The trade market doesn't look much better, but it does have a few options. Adam LaRoche of the Nationals figures to be among them as they look to move Ryan Zimmerman to first and Anthony Rendon to third. The Mets' Ike Davis will probably be another and he could benefit from a move to a more hitter-friendly park.
- The Dodgers will not lack rotation options next offseason – they'll try to re-sign Ricky Nolasco and they'll eventually get Chad Billingsley and Josh Beckett back. The team also has three minor league prospects in Lee, Ross Stripling, and Matt Magill, who figure to pitch at some point in 2014. The good news is that the Dodgers should be deep enough to give them time to develop.
Cafardo On Ruiz, Napoli, Hudson, Sizemore
In today's column, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe writes that there are several top teams that will have surpluses in certain areas this offseason that will be second guessing whatever move they make. In the case of the Dodgers, they have four strong outfielders in Matt Kemp, Yasiel Puig, Andre Ethier, and Carl Crawford. One would imagine that Ethier, who is frequently in trade rumors, would be the one to go, but GM Ned Colletti could also give some thought to dealing Kemp if the right offer comes along. Here's more from today's column..
- After bouncing back from a slow start, catcher Carlos Ruiz is desirable again and the Phillies are more enthused about the idea of re-signing him. That may prove to be difficult once Ruiz gets to the open market as he’d be a cheaper alternative to Brian McCann or Jarrod Saltalamacchia and more consistent than Dioner Navarro.
- According to Mike Napoli's agent Brian Grieper, there still haven't been contract talks with the Red Sox. It appears they will play it out and decide about a qualifying offer. One possibility is that they put Xander Bogaerts at third and Will Middlebrooks at first, taking Napoli out of the equation.
- Tim Hudson, 38, wants to return from the ankle fracture he suffered in July. Hudson, who should cleared for baseball activities by mid-December, will be a free agent but wants to stay in Atlanta. It'll come down to the money for the veteran, who earned $9MM this season.
- Grady Sizemore tried to get back playing this season, but he needs more time for his knees to heal. He'll likely be ready for a major league camp next spring and work out for teams this offseason to show he’s healthy. If he looks OK, he’ll probably get a few teams interested.
- Some still believe that it was a mistake for the Angels to only pay Mike Trout $510K this season and that he won't forget it when it comes time to work out a new deal with the club.
Angels To Explore Trading Kendrick In Offseason
Over the coming offseason, the Angels will explore the possibility of adding young, starting pitching through a trade of 30-year-old second baseman Howie Kendrick, reports Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com. The club came close to dealing Kendrick to the cross-town Dodgers at the trade deadline, which reportedly would have netted a top pitching prospect in Zach Lee. Heyman adds that the club is less interested in shopping Mark Trumbo and Peter Bourjos, and Erick Aybar, each of whom is controlled through 2017.
Kendrick inked a four-year, $33.5MM extension after a big 2011 campaign in which he posted a .285/.338/.464 triple-slash to go with fourteen steals and eighteen long balls. Depending upon whether his defense was viewed as excellent or merely average, he contributed between 4.5 WAR (Baseball-Reference) and 5.7 WAR (Fangraphs) that year. After a down 2012 saw his on-base and (especially) power numbers fall, leaving him with a roughly league-average line, Kendrick has rebounded at the plate in 2013 and is currently hitting .301/.341/.437. With his fielding and baserunning ticking slightly up and then back down, Kendrick has been valued as a three-win player over this year and last.
The net is that Kendrick has demonstrated the capacity to be excellent and seems to have established a baseline as an above-average player. He does not turn 31 until next July, and has been resiliant over his career, though he is currently on the DL with a knee injury. With two years and $18.85MM left on his contract, he should be a reasonably attractive commodity on the trade market, although he is certainly not a bargain at this point.
Also benefitting the Angels is the status of Kendrick's no-trade protection, which drops from twelve teams to just six next year (and four in 2015). That should make it easier for the Angels to find compatible trade partners, though one might expect Kendrick's agency (Reynolds Sports Management) to choose keystone-needy, ready-to-spend clubs for the list.
For the Angels, the challenge in shopping Kendrick will be to get sufficient value while avoiding the creation of a new hole at second. To be sure, the Angels face an imbalance between their potent hitting and underwhelming pitching, which Fangraphs' Dave Cameron recently explored. As Cameron notes, however, the staff has not been so bad as to single-handedly keep the club from contending, and the defense shares in the blame for the Halos' inability to prevent runs. As for a replacement, the team seems to see a lot of promise in recent acquisition Grant Green, who has a 108 OPS+ in 95 plate appearances since taking over for the injured Kendrick. But Green has always been considered a project defensively and has been graded harshly by advanced metrics in his short stint thus far.
Mutual Interest Between Angels, Jason Vargas
Given the recent success of the Angels' starters, MLB.com's Alden Gonzalez examines whether or not a top four of Jered Weaver, C.J. Wilson, Jason Vargas and Garrett Richards would be enough to field a competitive rotation. Within his piece, Gonzalez reports that there is mutual interest between the Angels and Vargas in working out a new deal this offseason, but he cautions that re-signing Vargas is "no slam dunk." According to Gonzalez, the Angels don't have the means or desire to overpay for the soon-to-be-31-year-old.
Vargas, a native of Apple Valley, Calif. (roughly 90 miles from Angel Stadium), has a 3.80 ERA on the season with career-bests in K/9 (6.3) and ground-ball rate (41.9 percent). His 3.0 BB/9 rate, while still solid, is the worst full-season mark of his career. Vargas missed nearly two months of games due to a blood clot but has returned and shown enough to calm some of the worry surrounding that injury. While his 4.33 ERA in five post-DL starts isn't great, he's twice worked into the seventh inning and topped 100 pitches, suggesting that he's not feeling limited following surgery to remove the clot.
For a pitcher whose value is tied so strongly to his innings totals — Vargas averaged 203 2/3 innings per season and 6 1/3 innings per start from 2010-12 — the injury is a blow to his free agent value. However, he and agent Nez Balelo of CAA Sports can also point out that the injury wasn't the result of any structural damage and therefore shouldn't have lingering effects.
Vargas, who was placed on revocable trade waivers in August but clearly pulled back (he wasn't traded and it seems incredibly unlikely that he'd go unclaimed), will be one of the better left-handed starters on the free agent market this offseason, joining Paul Maholm, Jorge De La Rosa and Scott Kazmir.
Quick Hits: Hughes, Tanaka, Angels, Infante
A change of scenery could allow Phil Hughes to be more like the pitcher everyone thought he would be in 2007, but it's unlikely the Yankees will ever see that pitcher, writes Andy McCullough of the Star-Ledger. Hughes could be given a qualifying offer this winter, but it seems more likely that this stage that the Bombers will simply let him walk rather than risk being on the hook for nearly $14MM. Here's more from around baseball..
- The Rangers aren't expected to make the same kind of push for Masahiro Tanaka that they did for Yu Darvish prior to the 2012 season, T.R. Sullivan of MLB.com reports. Though they've scouted the right-hander, the Rangers don't see Tanaka as being a Darvish-caliber pitcher at the present. As Sullivan notes, Darvish had a 1.99 ERA in seven seasons in Japan, averaging 2.4 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9. Tanaka's Japanese stats - 2.32 ERA in seven seasons, 1.9 BB/9 and 8.5 K/9 – are similar, but reports suggest he doesn't have Darvish's overpowering fastball.
- In an article for ESPN Insider, Dan Szymborski examines MLB teams that have seen large drop-offs in a recent update to ESPN's Future Power Rankings scoring system, which projects overall franchise strength for the next five seasons. The Angels top the list following disappointing seasons by Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton, but it's too early to declare that Pujols won't return to being an offensive contributor, Szymborski says. He also advises that the club make a play for free-agent pitchers such as Matt Garza or Hiroki Kuroda this offseason to bolster a struggling rotation. The Blue Jays, Brewers, Nationals and Reds round out the list.
- Omar Infante's new agent, Gene Mato, negotiated Anibal Sanchez's big five-year, $80MM deal with the Tigers this winter, MLB.com's Jason Beck notes. With a .319/.346/.453 line this year, Mato's new client could emerge as one of this offseason's top middle infielders, potentially complicating matters for the Tigers. Hernan Perez, 22, could be in line to inherit Detroit's second base job, but he may not be ready to do so by next season, Beck says.
Aaron Steen contributed to this post.
California Notes: Zito, Colletti, Angels
The Athletics moved into a tie for first place in the AL West with today's 4-2 victory over the Rangers. Today's game was the first of six head-to-head matchups between Oakland and Texas in September, so it's very possible that we're in for another pennant race that goes right down to the last day between these two clubs.
Here's the latest baseball news out of the Golden State…
- Barry Zito won't be designated for assignment or otherwise removed from the roster, Bruce Bochy told reporters, including Andrew Baggarly of CSNBayArea.com. The Giants need to open two 40-man roster spaces to accommodate their September callups by tomorrow and Zito could've been a candidate given how poorly has had pitched since mid-May. This cold streak may end Zito's tenure in San Francisco, as while the Giants obviously weren't going to pick up Zito's $18MM option for 2014, Baggarly notes the club could've pursued a new, less-expensive deal with the veteran lefty.
- The Dodgers are known for spending freely but ESPN's Buster Olney illustrates (in an Insider-only piece) how general manager Ned Colletti has inexpensively added to his bullpen and bench depth.
- The Brewers would appear to have gotten the better end of the 2012 deal that sent Zack Greinke to the Angels in exchange for Jean Segura and two minor league pitchers, but Halos GM Jerry Dipoto doesn't regret the trade. "I absolutely understand what the criteria was when we made the trade and why we made it," Dipoto says in an article by Alden Gonzalez of MLB.com, noting that the club was leading the AL wild card race at the time and needed to bolster its rotation.
- If the Red Sox can quickly return to contention after a disappointing season, could the Angels rebound from this year's problems to contend in 2014? Grantland's Jonah Keri thinks it would be "a gigantic long shot," given the Angels' deeper roster problems and a lack of minor league talent following several ill-advised trades of prospects, such as the Segura deal.
- From earlier today, MLBTR reported that Mike Zagurski opted out of his Athletics contract and was now a free agent.
MLBTR's Charlie Wilmoth contributed to this post