Cafardo On Blanton, Beltre, Indians, LaRoche
In today's column, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe names ten teams who might reap the benefits of bargain shopping as the winter winds down. The Rays, Mets, Yankees, and Angels top the list of clubs Cafardo thinks could make discounted moves in the coming weeks. Here are the rest of his hot stove notes:
- While the Mets will be hunting for affordable starting pitching options, don't expect the Phillies to trade Joe Blanton within the division.
- The Angels are making sure they don't bid against themselves on Adrian Beltre, and could eventually land the third baseman for a lesser price than Scott Boras is seeking.
- The Indians could make some more moves if they want to continue stockpiling prospects. Other teams would have interest in players like Chris Perez, Rafael Perez, Joe Smith, and Fausto Carmona, while Cleveland would "love to trade" Grady Sizemore and Travis Hafner.
- The Nationals "know it’s tough to get players to buy into the future of the team," writes Cafardo. As such, they may eventually commit to Adam LaRoche for the three years he's looking for.
- Jim Masteralexis, Manny Delcarmen's agent, says several teams are interested in his client, and Cafardo warns not to bet against the Rays.
- Carl Pavano may make a decision this week, and it appears that while he'd prefer to return to Minnesota, the Nationals will offer the better contract. Of course, we already saw one top free agent pitcher choose comfort over more guaranteed money, when Cliff Lee signed with the Phillies.
Several Teams Interested In Brian Fuentes
SATURDAY: Having added Hideki Okajima, the Red Sox appear out of the running for Fuentes, tweets Heyman. However, the Rays, Yankees, and a handful of other teams are still showing interest.
THURSDAY: The Rays appear to be very interested in Fuentes and are pursuing him, according to Marc Topkin of the St. Petersburg Times.
TUESDAY: SI's Jon Heyman pegs the Red Sox, Blue Jays, Rays, Rockies, Mariners, Twins, Pirates, Phillies, Brewers, Yankees, and Mets as teams with some interest in free agent lefty reliever Brian Fuentes.
If Fuentes is still looking for Scott Downs money, as ESPN's Buster Olney suggested 12 days ago, many of those eleven teams will drop out. I'm skeptical the Red Sox would sign Fuentes, as he'd be a luxury and they'd be hit with a 30% added tax. The Blue Jays appear close with Octavio Dotel, the Rockies just added Matt Lindstrom, the Brewers signed Takashi Saito, the Yankees added Pedro Feliciano, the Twins have big commitments to Joe Nathan and Matt Capps, and the Phillies and Mets appear nearly tapped out on payroll.
The Blue Jays, Rays, Mariners, Twins, Pirates, Yankees, and Mets do seem destined to add relievers, though I can see a shift toward a buyer's market a few weeks from now.
Odds & Ends: Morse, Pettitte, Miller, Durbin
Links for Wednesday, four years after the Giants signed Barry Zito to a seven-year, $126MM deal…
- Michael Morse, who broke out with 15 homers in limited playing time last year, could be pushed into a platoon role if the Nationals sign a first baseman, as Ben Goessling of MASNSports explains.
- Yankees president Randy Levine said to Peter Botte of the New York Daily News what lots of Yankee fans are thinking: the club needs Andy Pettitte in 2011. Meanwhile, Mark Teixeira says the left-hander is leaning toward retirement.
- In the same piece, Levine acknowledges that the Yankees discussed Manny Ramirez, but downplayed the team's interest.
- Mark Rodgers, the agent for Andrew Miller, told Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald that the lefty received big league offers from at least three teams, including the Rangers and Giants, before signing a minor league deal with the Red Sox.
- The Phillies could fill Chad Durbin's role internally with someone younger, according to Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer.
How Long Will Phillies’ Four Aces Stay Together?
The Phillies have assembled an amazing quartet to front their 2011 rotation: Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, and Roy Oswalt. How long can we expect this group to stay together?
- Halladay is signed through 2013, with an option for '14. It's possible the option will vest if Halladay tosses 225 innings in '13, 415 innings in '12-13, and avoids the disabled list at the end of the '13 season.
- Lee is signed through 2015, with a $27.5MM club option for '16. This option can vest more easily than Doc's, if Lee has 200 innings in '15 or 400 in '14-15 and does not finish the '15 season with a left shoulder or elbow injury. Plus, the massive $12.5MM buyout on that option gives it a $15MM net price, which might be worth exercising if Lee is good but not great in his age 36 season.
- Hamels is signed through 2011 and is arbitration eligible for the '12 season. Will he test the free agent waters after '12? The Phillies were able to sign Hamels to his current deal two years ago, but were not able to secure his final arbitration year let alone a free agent season or two.
- Oswalt is signed through 2011. He has a $16MM mutual option for '12 with a $2MM buyout. The $14MM net price should be appealing to the Phillies if Oswalt performs anywhere near his 2010 level, though the pitcher does have the ability to opt out. There are plenty of possibilities after the '11 season: Oswalt could retire, both sides could decide $16MM is a fair salary for another go-round, the Phillies could choose to decline, or the pitcher could decide he wants security for 2013 and seek a multiyear deal.
My guess: the Phillies will work something out with Oswalt for 2012, and we'll enjoy these four pitching together for two seasons.
Thanks to Cot's for the contract info.
Bill Me Later: Backloaded Multiyear Deals
Most multiyear free agent contracts are backloaded to some extent. For example, Adam Dunn's four-year, $56MM deal has an average annual value of $14MM but pays the player $12MM in 2011. The White Sox will pay Dunn about 85% of his deal's AAV in the upcoming season, which reflects the average first-year percentage for the 36 multiyear deals signed so far this offseason.
Some teams have opted for a more drastic "bill me later" plan, however. The biggest example is the Phillies' five-year, $120MM deal with Cliff Lee. That works out to $24MM a year on average, but they'll pay him only $11MM in 2011 – just 46% of the AAV. The backloading is accomplished by $25MM salaries in the final three years, plus what appears to be the biggest option buyout ever at $12.5MM. The deals for A.J. Pierzynski, Jayson Werth, and Orlando Hudson are other examples of heavily backloaded contracts that pay the player less than 70% of the AAV in 2011. Including part of his signing bonus, Werth will make only $12MM in '11.
Dodgers GM Ned Colletti did some big-time backloading this winter in his three-year deals for Matt Guerrier, Ted Lilly, and Juan Uribe. Overall the trio will be paid 67% of their AAV in 2011. Lilly, for example, will make only $7.5MM in 2011 but $12MM in '12 and $13.5MM in '13.
Teams can also pay later by negotiating deferred money into the contract. This is the case with Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera, Paul Konerko, and even Carlos Pena's one-year deal. These deferrals are often without interest, so the team benefits greatly.
Some teams prefer balanced contracts. Including his signing bonus, the Red Sox are paying Carl Crawford a full $20MM in 2011, almost the same as his AAV. They didn't backload Bobby Jenks' deal either. The contracts for Victor Martinez, Aubrey Huff, and Jorge de la Rosa are also spread out evenly.
Thanks to Cot's Baseball Contracts for contract details. Click here to download a spreadsheet used to create this post.
Unfinished Business: NL East
The new year is typically when free agent bargains begin, for teams that set a few million bucks aside. Let's examine the unfinished business for each of the NL East clubs today.
- Braves: Backup outfielder who can handle center field. Someone like Dewayne Wise, Scott Hairston, or even Andruw Jones could work within the Braves' limited payroll flexibility. The Braves will also be seeking a taker for Kenshin Kawakami.
- Marlins: Left-handed hitting bench bat. Catcher John Baker is one candidate. Free agency offers plenty of options – Laynce Nix, Jason Giambi, Joe Inglett, Mark Kotsay, Hank Blalock, Jeremy Hermida, Ryan Church, Casey Kotchman, Gabe Gross, and Jody Gerut, for example.
- Mets: Starting pitcher, lefty reliever, fourth outfielder. The Mets will undoubtedly be bargain shopping, and it's not clear whether they'll manage to add Chris Young or Jeff Francis to the rotation. The market for lefty relievers still features useful, affordable names like Mark Hendrickson and Tim Byrdak.
- Phillies: Taker for Joe Blanton. It seems the Phillies' main remaining goal is to unload Blanton's contract. They could add to the right field mix, but may stick with internal options.
- Nationals: Starting pitcher, first baseman, reliever. The Nats remain in the mix for Carl Pavano and Derrek Lee. Failing those two, they could go in significantly cheaper directions. Casey Kotchman's name has been mentioned. Hard to say whether the Nationals are content with Chad Gaudin and Henry Rodriguez as the bullpen additions.
Cafardo’s Latest: Uggla, Pavano, Matsuzaka, Ellsbury
In today's column, Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe asked ten baseball people to select the ten most significant moves/non-moves of the offseason. Unsurprisingly, Adrian Gonzalez, Zack Greinke, Carl Crawford, and Cliff Lee topped the list. Here are the rest of Cafardo's rumors…
- Talks between the Braves and Dan Uggla have slowed because he's seeking more money, but an extension should get done during the first week of January. Cafardo reported that the two sides were close to a five-year deal worth $60-61MM about two weeks ago.
- The Orioles still have interest in Kevin Gregg and the Red Sox still have interest in Brian Fuentes, but other free agent relievers like Rafael Soriano, Grant Balfour, Octavio Dotel, Aaron Heilman, Manny Delcarmen, Hideki Okajima and Jon Rauch remain in limbo.
- Carl Pavano is holding out for three years, with the Nationals, Twins, and Rangers still showing interest. Cafardo adds the Mariners to the mix, with the caveat that they free up some money first.
- The teams considering Pavano could also turn to Joe Blanton, who would certainly come cheaper.
- The Red Sox "haven’t heard anything close to the value they would need in return" for Daisuke Matsuzaka.
- The Angels and several other teams made a run at Jacoby Ellsbury this offseason, but the Sox "never heard any offer resembling proper value."
- Cafardo wonders if Adrian Beltre is looking at a much smaller payday than originally anticipated. Last we heard, the Angels pulled their five-year, $70MM offer to the third baseman, but they remain in the mix to sign him.
- David Aardsma is still trade bait and the Mariners wouldn't mind moving him for starting pitching depth. Earlier this week we heard Seattle wanted an impact bat for its closer.
Moyer Still Eyes Comeback After Surgery
Veteran pitcher Jamie Moyer underwent "very successful" Tommy John surgery earlier this month and continues to have his eye on a comeback in 2012. Moyer, who will be 49 years old when he looks to make his return to the mound, told Larry Stone of The Seattle Times that he'll be willing to compete for a job without a guaranteed deal.
"It may be difficult to find a job at the age of 49," the left-hander said. "Then again, it may not be. I know where I stand: I'll probably get a spring-training invitation, and rightly so. I don't have a problem with that. Throughout my career, I've always had to earn the situation I've been in. I don't expect anyone to give me anything. It's never been that way, so why now?"
Moyer turned in a 4.84 ERA with 5.1 K/9 and 1.6 BB/9 in 19 games with the Phillies last season before elbow trouble ended his season in July. The changeup artist might play winter ball in the Dominican Republic to gauge where he stands after rehabilitation. Moyer says he could also decide to spend more time with his family rather than attempt a comeback. The fact that he seems willing to prove himself once again and presumably take a pay cut could go a long way towards him making another run in the majors.
Odds & Ends: Yankees, Blanton, Garza, LaRoche
This has been a pretty good few months for Giants fans. Not only did their team end a 56-year World Series drought, but now TV announcers Mike Krukow and Duane Kuiper are close to six-year extensions to continue broadcasting Giants games, reports Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle.
Onto some other Thursday news…
- Andrew Marchand of ESPNNewYork.com looks at Hal Steinbrenner's "frugal approach" and how it won't go over well in New York if the Yankees don't win.
- Andy Pettitte has delayed his retirement decision long enough that if he does choose to return next year, he's already behind on his preseason preparations, observes ESPN.com's Buster Olney.
- In an MLB.com mailbag, Ian Browne thinks the Red Sox will look to acquire a veteran backup infielder or "a Bill Hall-type who can play the infield and outfield."
- The Yankees have "had internal chats" about signing Manny Ramirez, tweets Jack Curry of the YES Network. Curry rates the odds of Ramirez in pinstripes as even slimmer than those of the Yanks signing Johnny Damon, which Curry says "is also unlikely."
- With the pitching market so thin, baseball sources tell MLB.com's Todd Zolecki that the Phillies shouldn't have any trouble dealing Joe Blanton and might not even have to eat much of the $17MM Blanton is owed through 2012.
- MLB.com's Alden Gonzalez and Matthew Leach go point/counterpoint on whether or not the Rays should be shopping Matt Garza.
- Buck Showalter denies reports that the Orioles have made a three-year, $21MM offer to Adam LaRoche, tweets MLB.com's Brittany Ghiroli.
- ESPN's Keith Law chats with fans about a number of topics, including the Zack Greinke trade, Kerry Wood's deal with the Cubs, and various teams' minor league systems and prospects.
- Speaking of the Greinke trade, MLB.com's Mark Sheldon explains why Cincinnati didn't make a move for the ace right-hander and discusses other Reds-related matters in a fan mailbag.
- In a separate piece, Sheldon writes that the Reds will look internally to replace Arthur Rhodes, who agreed to a contract with Texas today.
Odds & Ends: Montanez, D’Backs, Rays
A year ago today, the Yankees acquired Javier Vazquez from the Braves for a group of players led by Melky Cabrera. Neither headliner did much in 2010, but the two lefty relievers in the deal – Michael Dunn and Boone Logan – did well and the Braves acquired a promising young arm in Arodys Vizcaino. As we await the next big trade of the 2010-11 offseason, here are today's links…
- Cardinals assistant GM John Abbamondi is leaving for San Diego, where he'll be a VP with the Padres, according to Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch (Twitter links).
- Luis Montanez told Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com that he has drawn interest from some AL East teams and some Japanese teams. The 29-year-old outfielder posted a .223/.257/.323 line in 266 plate appearances for the Orioles from 2008-10.
- The D'Backs have avoided incentive-based contracts in the past, but as MLB.com's Steve Gilbert explains, GM Kevin Towers has been creative with the contracts he's worked on this offseason. Click here for more contract details from around the majors.
- Cork Gaines of Rays Index explains that Tampa Bay's Opening Day payroll projects to be much lower in 2011, perhaps under $40MM.
- Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports explains that former Ray and Type A free agent Grant Balfour could end up returning to Tampa Bay, though it seems unlikely.
- The Phillies will have almost no flexibility to acquire players next summer unless they trade Joe Blanton to free up salary, according to Rosenthal.