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Amaro On The Impact Of Ryan Howard’s Deal

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Phillies' GM Ruben Amaro Jr. appeared on the MLB Network Radio channel on Sirius XM Radio with host Rob Dibble and Jim Memolo today to discuss, among other things, how Ryan Howard's massive contract extension will impact decisions that need to be made about other players on the roster.

“Well, hopefully it’s a positive effect," said Amaro, "that the players understand that we’re trying to prolong our success … I’ll be specific, with guys like Jayson Werth who could potentially be free agents, you know, we’d love to keep him … We’d love to sign him back.  It’s going to be my job to try to put all the pieces together.  We don’t have an unlimited budget and we’re going to have to be intelligent about how we handle things but we’re hopeful that we can put all of the pieces together to continue the trend of being a contender.”

Werth is one of several Phillies that can be free agents after the season, but he's the only one that's going to cost big bucks to keep. Philadelphia does have outfielder and top prospect Domonic Brown hitting .347/.402/.667 in Double-A (82 plate appearances), so they do have a pretty good backup plan already in house.

Amaro is correct in saying that Howard's deal is a statement about how the team wants to prolong success, which is attractive to both possible free agent targets and players already on the roster. Then again, so are two consecutive National League pennants.

Stark On Gordon, Dunn, Lowell

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The five most untradeable contracts in baseball?  ESPN's Jayson Stark's poll of baseball executives say it's Alfonso Soriano, Vernon Wells, Travis Hafner, Carlos Lee, and Barry Zito.  Hard to argue; check out our Bad Contract Swap Meet from last year for a look at other ugly deals.  It was interesting to see Daisuke Matsuzaka and Kosuke Fukudome nab honorable mentions in Stark's poll.  On to his other rumblings…

  • Stark's conversations led to repeated mentions of the new collective bargaining agreement, which will go into effect in December of 2011.  The uncertainty will have an impact – will 2011 draftees lack leverage, knowing that a slotting system could be installed the following year?  Does it make sense to worry about Super Two status for Mike Stanton now, when that provision might not exist in 2012?
  • Teams have kicked the tires on Alex Gordon, but the Royals have no interest in trading him.  MLBTR's Luke Adams led a discussion post on Gordon yesterday.
  • The Dodgers are scouring the trade market for starting pitching, while the Royals and Phillies seek bullpen help.  The Mariners and Braves are trying to add offense.  The Diamondbacks are actually more interested in starting pitching than relief, and are expected to have Chris Snyder available once Miguel Montero returns.
  • A "baseball man familiar with the Nationals' thinking" expects Adam Dunn to return in 2011, though not necessarily via an in-season extension.
  • A friend of Mike Lowell tells Stark the third baseman would love to play for the Twins or Angels if the Red Sox plan to trade him.
  • The Phillies have recently adopted a stance against full no-trade clauses, which is reflected in the Roy Halladay and Ryan Howard extensions.

Heyman On Harper, Werth, Rollins

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SI's Jon Heyman has word on Bryce Harper's expected demand after the 17-year-old catcher is drafted next month.  Heyman says the Scott Boras advisee "will seek to break last year's record $15.67 million bonus set by Stephen Strasburg."  It should be noted that in most places Strasburg's big league deal is reported as $15.1MM.  That deal included a $7.5MM bonus.  Back on April 20th, Baseball America's Jim Callis predicted Harper would sign for eight figures but less than Strasburg.   For more on the largest contracts in draft history, check out Mike Axisa's recent post.  On to Heyman's other rumors…

  • Heyman writes of pessimism that the Phillies can re-sign Jayson Werth.
  • Heyman adds that "People around baseball do expect the Phillies to make a huge effort to extend Jimmy Rollins beyond 2011, though there's no evidence there's any progress on that front."  Perhaps as a sign of goodwill, the Phillies exercised Rollins' $8.5MM club option for 2011 in December of '09.  Will the Phils give Rollins the Ryan Howard treatment, and extend him well before they need to?

Discussion: Raul Ibanez

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Raul Ibanez is in the second season of a three-year, $31.5MM deal with the Phillies, and so far 2010 isn't treating him as well as the first half of 2009 did. Last season, Ibanez got off to a torrid start, hitting 340/.399/.716 with 19 homers in his first 50 games. This year, the 37-year-old has yet to find his stroke, posting a slash line of just .221/.341/.338.

Ibanez is a notoriously streaky hitter, and it's possible another hot stretch like last year's is right around the corner. It's only May 1st and there are plenty of reasons to believe he'll right the ship, such as his .341 OBP, which is right in line with his career rate (.346) and his 2009 rate (.347). If Ibanez's struggles continue, however, it's a cause of concern for the two-time defending National League champs. In addition to this year's slow start, the outfielder finished 2009 by hitting 228/.313/.446 after those aforementioned first 50 games. Ibanez will turn 38 this month, and one has to wonder if his age is starting to catch up to him.

As a piece on ESPN.com's MLB Rumors page notes, Ibanez's leash will be long. The Phillies owe him $11.5MM in each of the next two seasons, and won't want to pay him that money to sit on the bench. Plus, their alternatives aren't overly appealing — in limited playing time, Ben Francisco has also struggled this year, and prospect Domonic Brown is probably not quite major league ready.

So what are the Phillies' options if Ibanez's numbers don't improve? Bob Brookover of the Philadelphia Inquirer suggested that the club's best bet of retaining Jayson Werth beyond this year involved moving Ibanez to help clear salary space, but in addition to the $23MM he's owed, Ibanez's no-trade protection is problematic. Can you see the Phillies attempting to make any roster moves, or will this end up being a non-issue for the team?

Odds & Ends: Red Sox, Howard, Francisco, Mendoza

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Links to check out as we await Cliff Lee's Mariners debut…

Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Howard, Prince, Konerko

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On this date five years ago, Roger Clemens and Greg Maddux faced off in the first matchup of 300-game winners since Don Sutton and Steve Carlton in 1987. Maddux's Cubs topped Clemens' Astros by the score of 3-2.

Let's look at what's being written around the blogosphere, with a heavy dose of Ryan Howard contract reactions…

If you have a suggestion for this feature, Mike can be reached here.

Stark On Fielder, Howard, Sizemore, Frasor

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Jayson Stark's latest Rumblings and Grumblings column is hot off the press at ESPN.com.  Let's take a look.

  • Stark explains that the potentially legendary 2012 first base free agent class may be further depleted, as Albert Pujols is expected to stay in St. Louis and Adrian Gonzalez could be traded and extended by his new team.  Even Lance Berkman might stay put, leaving Prince Fielder as the remaining big name.  There are some who rank Fielder below Ryan Howard, writes Stark.
  • Stark says the Phillies signed Howard now because they felt a Pujols extension would drive up Howard's price.  For an explanation straight from the horse's mouth, check out Todd Zolecki's MLB.com chat with Ruben Amaro Jr. and Pat Gillick. 
  • If the 2012 first base free agent class is loaded, will there be enough teams willing to shell out massive contracts?  Stark says yes, naming a dozen teams he figures could be in the mix.  Don't forget the Nationals and Orioles, two clubs that made huge bids for Mark Teixeira.
  • Jayson Werth's agent Jeff Borris named the Jason Bay and Matt Holliday deals as frames of reference for his client.  Stark takes that to mean Werth will be looking in the $16-17MM range.  My question: does he get five years?
  • One source of Stark's says the Indians have shown zero inclination to trade Grady Sizemore.  Sizemore's $10MM club option for 2012 becomes a player option upon a trade, and Stark feels Sizemore would "almost certainly" exercise it – decreasing his trade value.  That assumes, of course, that Sizemore doesn't turn things around anytime soon.
  • Stark doesn't think the Red Sox have reached a desperation point regarding acquiring a catcher who can throw.  Bringing in a Chris Snyder or a Gerald Laird might necessitate releasing David Ortiz or Mike Lowell.
  • The Orioles have interest in Blue Jays reliever Jason Frasor.
  • In a table, Stark provides an interesting look at teams' guaranteed money rankings for 2011 and '12.  The Dodgers, interestingly, are very light on '12 commitments ($3.3MM).

Odds & Ends: Smoltz, D’Backs, Kemp, Howard

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Links for Wednesday, as the Brewers wonder how to fix Trevor Hoffman…

Discussion: Jimmy Rollins

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Yesterday, we took a look at how Ryan Howard's contract extension might affect the Phillies' chances of retaining Jayson Werth beyond this season. Following the 2011 campaign, the Phils will face a decision on a player even more crucial to their recent successes than Werth: shortstop Jimmy Rollins.

The Phillies have already exercised their $8.5MM 2011 option for the 2007 National League MVP, and they'll likely want to keep Rollins past next season. He is perhaps the face of the franchise, and has been one of baseball's most productive all-around shortstops since becoming an everyday player in 2001.

The good news for the Phils is that they'll have a couple of bloated contracts coming off the books after 2011. Raul Ibanez and Brad Lidge are both owed $11.5MM in '11, but are probably unlikely to remain in Philadelphia beyond that, and certainly not at that price. However, as MLBTR's Howard Megdal pointed out yesterday, the Phillies already have plenty of other commitments in 2012 and beyond.

MLB.com's Todd Zolecki notes that Rollins has said in the past that he could picture himself finishing his career for a Bay Area club, near where he grew up. These days, the 31-year-old seems more open to staying put in Philadelphia: "We weren't good then. We're good now. As long as we're good, I'm good."

GM Ruben Amaro Jr. insists that Howard's extension won't affect the team's ability to re-sign players like Werth and Rollins, though extension talks with Werth are at an impasse for now. If the Phillies are unable to bring Werth back in 2010, Rollins' chances of remaining with the club look better, since they'll be locked into one less long-term deal. If Rollins does receive a multi-year, big-money extension though, the Phillies' financial flexibility will take yet another hit. Even with a payroll that exceeds $140MM, you have to wonder how much money they can afford to tie up long-term in aging players.

Heyman On Howard, Pujols, Adrian, Werth

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The latest hot stove thoughts from SI's Jon Heyman…

  • The people Heyman talked to feel that with Ryan Howard averaging $25MM a year starting in 2012, a contract discussion for Albert Pujols has to start at $30MM a year.
  • Heyman says that "the belief among skeptics of the deal that [the Howard extension] was an obvious overpay isn't reflected one bit among baseball people."  Of course, there are hundreds of baseball people, and the ones I've spoken to agree with the skeptics.
  • Adrian Gonzalez's agent John Boggs said, "We're just kind of innocent bystanders," noting that the Padres have not made contact about an extension.
  • Jayson Werth's agent Jeff Borris believes his client will be "the premier free agent outfielder" if he doesn't sign an extension.  Looking at the list, only Carl Crawford would have an argument.  Heyman says there's a "belief around baseball" that Werth will be seeking $100MM.  Previously we've heard suggestions of the four-year, $66MM Jason Bay range.
  • Heyman says Stephen Strasburg has a contract clause that "permits 100 innings at the major-league level this year."  I haven't heard of any clauses of that nature before, but Strasburg and Scott Boras is a powerful pairing.
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