Jorge Alfaro Could Miss Rest Of Year
Top Rangers catching prospect Jorge Alfaro has suffered an ankle injury that could keep him out for the rest of the season, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News writes. Alfaro is currently wearing a walking boot, and the Rangers are considering surgery as an option.
MLB.com currently ranks Alfaro the Rangers’ second-best prospect (behind Joey Gallo) and the 38th best prospect in baseball. ESPN’s Keith Law ranked Alfaro the No. 35 prospect in baseball heading into the season, while Baseball America ranked Alfaro No. 67. Alfaro, who turned 22 yesterday, has hit .253/.314/.432 for Double-A Frisco this year. He has outstanding tools, including terrific power and a huge arm, although Law notes that he has at times struggled to control them. Alfaro might therefore need the minor league development time he’ll lose as a result of the injury more than many prospects of his caliber would.
Early in the season, Alfaro’s name came up as a possibility in trade rumors involving Cole Hamels, as the Phillies reportedly coveted Alfaro. Other reports at the time, however, indicated that the Rangers preferred not to trade him.
Rangers Sign Dillon Tate
The Rangers have officially announced the signing of fourth overall pick Dillon Tate, along with the signings of righty Jake Lemoine (fourth round), shortstop Dylan Moore (seventh), righty Blake Bass (eighth), righty Peter Fairbanks (ninth), shortstop Leon Byrd (tenth), and centerfielder Ledarious Clark (12th). All have been assigned to short-season Spokane except Lemoine, who will head to the Arizona Summer League.
Tate will receive a bonus of $4.2MM, as Anthony Andro of FOX Sports Southwest tweets. The pool value of the pick was $5,026,500, so Tate’s signing will save the Rangers over $800K that they can use on later picks, perhaps including third-round pick Michael Matuella, who could command a bonus above his recommended $777,600 allotment. Lemoine, meanwhile, will receive $528K, which is the exact bonus allotment for his pick.
Tate, a 21-year-old junior righty from UC-Santa Barbara, earns high marks for his fastball (which can reach up to 98 MPH) and high-80s slider. MLB.com notes that his curveball isn’t as strong and that his delivery involves a bit of effort, but that Tate seems to have answered questions about whether he’s capable of starting. If in fact he doesn’t work out in that role, his arsenal would seem well suited to bullpen work — Tate excelled as a closer in college before transitioning to the rotation.
Baseball America (subscription-only), meanwhile, ranked Tate the No. 3 prospect in the draft, behind only Brendan Rodgers and Dansby Swanson. BA noted that, as a result of switching from relieving to starting, Tate greatly increased his innings total this year. That might mean the Rangers could be cautious with him as he enters his first pro season. Tate has pitched 103 1/3 innings so far in 2015, with a 2.26 ERA, 9.7 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9.
Trade Market Notes: Top Targets, Papelbon, Jays, Mets, Cueto
Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com ranks the top forty trade candidates around the league, adding observations and notes on each. Though he notes that clubs like the Red Sox and Orioles could potentially end up moving assets, Heyman restricts things to clubs that seem more likely than not to sell at this point. Cole Hamels of the Phillies lands in the pole position; though some top suitors remain unwilling to part with the top players targeted by Philadelphia, one GM tells Heyman that the club will probably be able to land a premium prospect for the lefty. He also argues that a deal involving Dodgers outfielder and Angels starter C.J. Wilson looks good on paper, though the teams have not discussed such an arrangement. You’ll need to read the whole post to take it all in, of course.
- The Blue Jays and Phillies have not discussed Jonathan Papelbon in the last week, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports (Twitter links), adding that Toronto is looking at other arms at the moment. One name to watch, says Sherman, is Tyler Clippard of the Athletics, who Toronto had in-depth discussions about over the winter.
- It’s academic at this point, but Clippard also drew significant interest from the Astros over the offseason, Sherman further tweets. Indeed, Houston was “very close” to acquiring the veteran reliever, says Sherman, which raises the interesting question of what the Nationals would have received in return. Ultimately, the club took infielder Yunel Escobar in return, though that deal did not occur until a month after the Astros had already spent big on free agent bullpen arms, which could indicate that the prospective Clippard acquisition might have been contemplated earlier in the winter.
- Mets GM Sandy Alderson indicated that the club will not rely on a return from David Wright in making its summer moves, David Lennon of Newsday writes. Alderson said the club would not continue providing regular updates on Wright’s status, and said he would not be restricted in making moves. “Would we consider a third baseman who can’t do anything else?” Alderson queried. “Under the circumstances, yeah, we probably would. But we’re not just looking for any third baseman. It has to be something we think is an improvement that doesn’t cost us significantly.” The veteran GM continued to throw cold water on the idea of a move in the near-term, noting that the market was “narrow” and generally features underperforming players at this stage.
- C. Trent Rosecrans of the Cincinnati Enquirer discusses the Reds‘ current predicament, with Zack Cozart out for the season, Devin Mesoraco likely to join him in that regard, and Marlon Byrd sidelined for a significant stretch. Cincinnati should not allow its hosting of the All-Star game to slow its efforts to deal Johnny Cueto, opines Rosecrans, who suggests that the team could reap a larger reward by moving him now (both by selling more starts and, perhaps, by getting ahead of the market). Dealing Cueto, of course, would also increase the appeal of shipping out Mike Leake and Aroldis Chapman. Rosecrans concludes: “At this point, the organization doesn’t need to think about the All-Star Game, or even 2016. This is a long-term move and needs long-term thinking.”
- Though he’s a rental, Cueto is a true ace and should bring back a healthy return — even if it won’t be near what the Reds might have achieved last year (as Rosecrans explains). There should be no shortage of suitors, but MLB.com’s Phil Rogers lists the five most plausible landing spots: the Blue Jays, Red Sox, Dodgers, Rangers, and Padres.
Amateur Notes: July 2, Martinez, Sierra, D’Backs, Draft
With the draft in the books, the next July 2 period is just around the corner. Last year saw several teams blow past their spending allocations, incurring two-year bans on $300K+ signings to do so. As the Angels, Diamondbacks, Rays, Red Sox, and Yankees go on probation, the Cubs and Rangers are returning to the market. Ben Badler of Baseball America breaks down this year’s market, with the Cubs joined by the Dodgers and Royals as teams that seem quite likely to dole out enough excess bonus cash to incur the highest possible penalties. The Phillies and Blue Jays could follow those clubs, says Badler, though they may yet be able to add their top targets without taking on a signing ban. Badler discusses several clubs that could be buyers or sellers of international space, with the Twins profiling as a major acquirer or spending capacity and the D’backs looking to get some value back for the bonus availability that they cannot take advantage of.
You’ll want to give that piece a full read. Here are some other worthwhile amateur links:
- Badler discusses the signing situations of BA’s top ten July 2 prospects (non-Cuban edition). He says the Mets are the favorites to land Venezuelan shortstop Andres Gimenez. Though New York probably won’t get Vladimir Guerror Jr., who has long been linked to the Blue Jays, they may instead get Vlad Sr. nephew Gregory Guerrero, another shortstop. Meanwhile, Badler says the Rangers appear set to sign Dominican outfielder Leodys Taveras but now seem likely to lose Bahamian shortstop Lucius Fox to the Dodgers.
- Cuban outfielder Eddie Julio Martinez has drawn a range of reviews, with MLB.com pegging him as the top overall international prospect and Badler expressing considerably more doubt. You can have a look for yourself, at least at some batting practice cuts, with a video courtesy of BA.
- Well-regarded Cuban right-hander Yaisel Sierra will be represented by Praver-Shapiro Sports Management, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweets. As Badler recently explained, Sierra will be exempt from international signing restrictions when he becomes eligible to sign, but his Serie Nacional track record has never quite matched his promising pure stuff.
- The Diamondbacks‘ new regime exhibited a notable change in strategy in this year’s draft, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic notes (Twitter links). After going heavy on high schoolers at the top of last year’s draft, Arizona chose 15 collegiate players in its first 19 picks (including each of its first six selections) this time around. Individual draft dynamics always have an important bearing on a team’s final board, of course, but it is notable that the D’Backs ultimately chose just four high school players out of their forty total draft slots.
- MLB.com’s Jim Callis lists the five teams that had the best drafts. Like other analysts, he places the Astros, Rockies, and Dodgers at the top of that list. Callis also likes what the Rays and Rangers accomplished with their selections.
Rangers Release Mike Kickham
The Rangers have released lefty Mike Kickham, per a club announcement (h/t to Anthony Andro of FOX Sports Southwest).
Texas claimed Kickham off waivers just over a month ago from the Mariners. The 26-year-old has struggled at Triple-A since, permitting 21 earned runs in just 27 innings of work. Even worse, he has struck out just 16 batters while issuing an alarming 35 free passes.
Kickham has only minimal big league experience, having thrown 30 1/3 innings over the last two seasons with the Giants. Those weren’t terribly successful either, though he has shown the ability to induce swings and misses from MLB hitters.
Draft Notes: Matuella, Rodgers, Harris, Cameron
Scouts do much more than tally stats, of course, but they are not immune from the allure of racking up their own numbers. As MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick writes, Marty Lamb of the Dodgers received credit as the lead scout on three of the team’s top five choices, including first-rounder Walker Buehler, a fairly rare achievement. “Part of it is luck,” explains the veteran scout. “They’ve got to fall to the right places, and we’ve got to like them. … It’s fun, but I’m sure some of my buddies [fellow scouts] aren’t too happy with me right now, but it’s part of the game.”
Here’s more from out west:
- Rangers scouting director Kip Fagg, likewise, was pleased with how things turned out Monday, as Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News writes. “I can’t think of a better day that I’ve had in my 24 years of scouting with the Texas Rangers,” he said. “The first four guys we drafted, we had them all in our top 20 on our board. That’s never happened in my career. That made it special.” Texas took righty Dillon Tate with its top pick and also went on to secure the rights to Duke starter Michael Matuella, a high-upside talent who has injury and signability questions. Matuella says he is “very confident” in reaching a deal, with Fagg echoed that sentiment.
- High school shortstop Brendan Rodgers, the Rockies‘ top selection at third overall, said Monday that he agreed on bonus terms with the club before the draft, as Nick Groke of the Denver Post reported. Ink has not yet been put to paper, Chris Cotillo of SB Nation tweets, but it appears that Rodgers will formally reach a deal in fairly short order.
- Meanwhile, the Blue Jays are nearing agreement with first-rounder Jon Harris, according to Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca. The righty is expected to receive a bonus in line with the slot value of $1,944,800, sources tell Davidi. Toronto has expressed real excitement at having another chance at Harris, who the team failed to sign out of high school after the 2012 draft.
- Astros second-round choice Daz Cameron, a highly-regarded high school outfielder, is asking “less than” the $5MM he was rumored to be seeking, Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle reports. The consensus is that Cameron fell to Houston because it has the overall spending capacity to sign him, but perhaps the team will not need to go quite as high as had been expected to get a deal done. Daz’s father — long-time big leaguer Mike Cameron — offers plenty of interesting thoughts on his son’s draft experience and the useful “business management” lesson he picked up along the way. It’s an interesting piece and well worth a read.
Prospect Notes: Turner, Draft Updates, Cuba
The Nationals can finalize their acquisition of Padres shortstop Trea Turner as soon as June 14, MLB.com’s Bill Ladson reports. Turner, the widely-reported player to be named later in the deal that delivered Wil Myers to San Diego — with the Nationals giving up Steven Souza (to the Rays) and also picking up righty Joe Ross — has remained with the Padres organization under the since-changed rules regarding drafted players. The 21-year-old owns a .322/.389/.478 slash with five home runs and ten steals in 231 plate appearances at Double-A.
- Several notable names have come off the board early on day two of the draft. Duke righty Michael Matuella went to the Rangers with the third pick of the third round (78th overall). Not long after, the Padres took fellow right-hander Jacob Nix, whom the Astros were unable to sign last year after their deal with top pick Brady Aiken fell through. And the Nationals grabbed Mariano Rivera Jr. with the 134th choice.
- Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs offers his thoughts on yesterday’s draft proceedings, explaining that it is premature to judge the Marlins harshly at this juncture for choosing young slugger Josh Naylor in the first round (much higher than most pundits had him rated). After all, as McDaniel rightly notes, the supposed “value” of a pick will never be as important in the long run as the simple fact of whether that player develops and produces, and at some point teams simply have to take guys they believe in when they can get them. Check out the piece for Kiley’s views on the clubs that chose well on the draft’s first day.
- Amateur players come to clubs through the draft and the international signing market, of course, making comparison difficult. Ben Badler of Baseball America discusses the latest news and analysis on the Cuban market, providing a helpful guide on several notable names by assigning them a rough (and entirely hypothetical) draft value. Notably, Badler does not share the optimism that some have expressed regarding righty Yadier Alvarez and, in particular, outfielder Eddy Julio Martinez.
AL Notes: Royals, Holland, Harrison, Urshela
While much of the focus around the game remains on the ongoing draft, let’s take a peek in at the latest from the American League:
- The Royals will soon have to make a call between catchers Drew Butera and Erik Kratz, Jeffrey Flanagan writes for MLB.com. Neither of the reserve backstops can be optioned, and Kratz is nearing the end of a rehab assignment. “If I were to handicap both of them, I would say Butera is the better defensive player and Kratz is the better offensive player,” said skipper Ned Yost, who explained that he had yet to speak with GM Dayton Moore about the decision.
- The Rangers rotation has held together well enough, and has received a nice boost from Chi Chi Gonzalez, but nevertheless remains an area to watch as the team continues to play solid baseball. Texas may well look to add in the rotation, particularly since the club now seems unlikely to welcome back lefty Derek Holland until right around the trade deadline. Holland has not progressed as well as hoped from his sub-scapular strain, GM Jon Daniels told reporters including Stefan Stevenson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram (Twitter link). It now looks like he’ll be out until at least late July or even into August, per Daniels.
- In more positive news, fellow Rangers southpaw Matt Harrison has managed to return to the hill and is throwing in the low-90s, as Kevin Sherrington writes for the Dallas Morning News. The results haven’t been there for Harrison in his work thus far at Triple-A — he’s allowed eight earned in ten innings — but that is secondary to his overall health at this point given the serious back issues he has dealt with. Harrison still has work to do, clearly, but he could bolster the Texas rotation by early July. He’s owed $13MM annually this year and the next two, while the team holds a $13.25MM option ($2MM buyout) for 2018.
- As expected, the Indians have officially called up third baseman Giovanny Urshela, a 23-year-old who’ll see his first big league action. Urshela, who entered the year as the system’s 11th-best prospect in the eyes of Baseball America, has slashed .275/.301/.475 in his 83 Triple-A plate appearances this year. He’s said to be more advanced defensively than at the plate, but has significant raw power and solid contact ability (though he does not take many free passes).
Quick Hits: Lindor, Pirates, Hart, Rangers
When Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan reported that the Indians had demoted Jose Ramirez earlier today, there was immediate speculation that the Tribe might call up top prospect Francisco Lindor. Instead, Zach Walters and Giovanny Urshela will join the Cleveland roster while Ramirez and Lonnie Chisenhall have been optioned to Triple-A, the Indians officially announced. Lindor, a consensus top-nine prospect in baseball, is hitting .269/.342/.393 over 231 Triple-A plate appearances this season. The Tribe might feel he needs a bit more seasoning, though many pundits feel it’s just a matter of time before Lindor is at Progressive Field. Here’s some more from around the majors…
- The Pirates‘ offseason signings have already proven to be a bargain, Travis Sawchik of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review writes. A.J. Burnett, Francisco Cervelli, Jung Ho Kang and Francisco Liriano will earn $28.5MM this season, and the quartet had already combined for 5.3 WAR over the Bucs’ first 54 games. Under the general estimate that one WAR costs $7MM, the four Pirates have provided $37.1MM of value with two-thirds of the season still left to play.
- In another piece from Sawchik, he notes that Corey Hart‘s roster spot seems tenuous since the veteran is receiving so little playing time. Hart has just 42 plate appearances this season, in part because the Pirates have faced surprisingly few left-handed opposing starters but also because of Hart’s struggles at the plate over the last two seasons.
- Since taking Mark Teixeira fifth overall in 2001, the Rangers have had very little luck with their first round picks, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News writes (though Texas was able to trade some of those prospects for meaningful stars like Cliff Lee). This trend could be changing, however, now that Chi Chi Gonzalez and Joey Gallo are in the bigs and playing well early in their young careers.
- It’s time for the Reds to begin a rebuild, Paul Daugherty of the Cincinnati Enquirer opines. While club owner Bob Castellini is very competitive and is loath to move on from this generation of Reds stars, Daugherty notes that with a thin minor league system, Cincinnati needs to reload on young talent sooner rather than later.
Amateur Notes: Gourriel Brothers, Martinez, Draft
We’ve had a lot of news of players leaving Cuba of late, but two of the country’s most prominent names — brothers Yulieski and Lourdes Gourriel, rated first and fourth among the island’s players as big league prospects — have thus far not made any public moves towards the big leagues. As Ben Badler of Baseball America explains, however, both players are now set to miss the Cuban national team’s upcoming appearance in the Pan American Games. The younger of the two, Lourdes, was surprisingly left off the original roster, while Yulieski (the country’s biggest star) is said to have taken himself out of the tournament — after both recently seemed to have passed on chances to earn significant money playing in Japan. For now, it’s entirely unclear whether there is any movement afoot for the brothers to come stateside, but Badler notes that MLB clubs are watching with keen interest.
Here are some more amateur notes as we enter the final weekend before the draft:
- As he prepares to join the professional ranks after being declared a free agent, Cuban outfielder Eddy Julio Martinez has moved into the top spot on MLB.com’s international prospect list, as MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez writes. It’s unclear as yet whether Martinez will sign in this period or the new one beginning July 2, but he’ll have to put pen to paper in short order if he’s to head to the Yankees or Angels. Those two clubs will be unable to spend more than $300K after this July 2 class closes, and they are among the teams who Sanchez lists with interest. The Cubs, Blue Jays, Nationals, Rockies, Tigers, Dodgers, and Giants have also reached out to Martinez’s camp, per the report. “I’m working hard to get to my goal to play in the Major Leagues, ” says the 20-year-old. “That’s what I have always wanted to do.”
- The makeup of the amateur draft has changed over time, as Ben Lindbergh of Grantland explains. Mocking the draft is a more-or-less hopeless endeavor, says Lindbergh, but some trends have emerged. For one thing, the number of pitchers has continued to rise rather significantly. While this year’s class lacks premium talent, Christopher Crawford of Baseball Prospectus tells Lindbergh, some teams — the Rangers (who have the fourth overall pick) chief among them, based on their recent history — could well continue to stockpile arms. The Diamondbacks, who of course sit at first overall, have leaned toward position players recently, although they have an entirely new front office installed this time around. Meanwhile, the percentage of high school players taken has plummeted in the long run, but has jumped more recently. In particular, says Lindbergh, the Red Sox and Blue Jays have moved toward heavy drafting of prep players, who of course represent generally riskier but (in some cases) higher-upside investments. The Nationals have skewed most heavily toward college players — the spread is rather amazingly wide — though that could be due in part to draft circumstances. There are plenty more details in the piece, and I highly recommend a read to prepare for the coming draft.
- Bonus allocations (which come with the penalty of stark limitations in future drafts) have had a marked impact on clubs’ total outlay on draft-eligible talent, argues Ronald Blum of the Associated Press (via the Denver Post). Draft spending has remained flat over the last three years, with Blum calculating that an analogous increase of total cash commitments to that observed in free agency — which was often the case prior to the new rules — might have delivered an additional $100MM to amateur players over that span. This area is obviously full of complicated questions, including considerations of an international draft, and it’s extremely difficult to identify clear-cut solutions. The piece is full of interesting quotes from notable figures around the game, and is well worth a full read.