Rangers Claim Edwar Cabrera From Rockies
The Rangers have claimed Edwar Cabrera off waivers from the Rockies, according to Troy Renck of the Denver Post (on Twitter). Cabrera was expected to be removed from Colorado's 40-man roster this offseason.
Cabrera was sidelined all season with a shoulder injury. The left-hander made two big league starts for the Rockies in 2012 but spent the rest of the season in the minors. In 21 combined starts for the club's Triple-A and Double-A affiliates, Cabrera posted a 3.05 ERA with 8.4 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9.
The Rockies dropped another pitcher from the 40-man roster earlier today when they outrighted Manny Corpas.
Free Agent Profile: Joe Nathan
Only a legendary reliever could post a 1.39 ERA that isn't even his career-best. Joe Nathan did just that for the Rangers in 2013, proving he's still elite at age 38. After finishing 62 games in 2012 and 61 in '13, Nathan earned the right to void a $9MM club option and become a free agent, which he's expected to do.
Strengths/Pros
With Mariano Rivera's retirement, Nathan ranks first on the active career saves leaderboard with 341. That number ties him for tenth all-time with Rollie Fingers, and Nathan can reasonably ascend to sixth all-time by the end of a two-year contract. He became a full-time reliever in 2003, posting a 2.24 ERA and 3.94 K/BB ratio in 671 1/3 innings since then. Nathan, who spent the bulk of his career with the Twins, has racked up six All-Star nods. He's saved at least 37 games in eight different seasons. His career save percentage is 90.0, the best in baseball history for anyone with at least 200 saves. Nathan has been one of the best relievers of the entire save era.
Nathan had Tommy John surgery in March 2010, and his final year with the Twins in '11 was a consolidation year as he returned from the procedure. From 2012-13 for the Rangers, he posted a 2.09 ERA, 10.5 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 6.3 H/9, and 0.63 HR/9 in 129 regular season innings. He made the All-Star team both years, saving 80 games in total. Among relievers with 100 innings during that time, his ERA ranks seventh. Only four pitchers saved more games.
Outside of the elbow surgery, Nathan has rarely been injured, consistently pitching at least 64 innings per year.
Qualifying offers for relievers figure to remain rare, though Nathan has a chance at one. Most likely, the Rangers won't risk a potential $14.1MM commitment and won't make the offer.
Weaknesses/Cons
Nathan will pitch at age 39 next year. Outside of Rivera, who is in a class by himself, there have been only seven instances since 1980 of pitcher age 39 or older saving 30 games in a season. Dennis Eckersley did it twice, and Trevor Hoffman did it three times. I explained above that Nathan is a legendary closer in his own right, so he belongs with those names, but it will still be a risky multiyear commitment at significant dollars. Agent Dave Pepe can counter the age concerns by pointing out that his client is a workout fanatic.
Nathan walked 3.1 batters per nine innings this year, his worst rate since '03. He walked over four per nine in the second half, even with a strong September finish. It might be nothing more than a blip, but the increased walk rate is worth considering.
Nathan's groundball rate this year was just 32%. It may seem like nitpicking, as Nathan surrendered only two home runs in his 64 2/3 innings. However, most relievers with a groundball rate similar to Nathan's allowed around one home run per nine innings, as Nathan did in 2012. Home run prevention is one area in which we should not expect Nathan to be elite moving forward.
Personal
Nathan, his wife, and two children reside in Knoxville, Tennessee. He graduated from SUNY-Stony Brook in '97 with a degree in business management. Known for his intelligence, Nathan will receive an honorary doctorate from the university in December. His hobbies include golf and playing the guitar.
Market
Though he committed two years to a 37-year-old Nathan coming off his worst season, Rangers GM Jon Daniels told reporters this month that giving multiple years to relievers has never been the team's preference, and the situation was different that offseason. While a return to the Rangers can't be ruled out, it seems the Rangers might choose to allocate their resources toward other players and save some money in the ninth inning.
Nathan projects as a closer on a large-market, win-now team. The Yankees, Tigers, and perhaps the Angels might be the only teams that fit that criteria and aren't locked in at closer. The Dodgers or Red Sox could work, but both clubs would have to demote relievers coming off dominant seasons. The Orioles or Indians could enter the mix, non-tendering or trading Jim Johnson or Chris Perez given arbitration projections in the $11MM and $9MM ranges for their closers, respectively. Pepe could face a situation similar to that of Rafael Soriano, whose market was limited by his price tag. Eventually, Scott Boras leveraged his ownership connections to land two separate big-money mid-January contracts for Soriano, even though the closer came with a draft pick cost attached.
Teams seeking closers will have other options beyond Nathan, including free agents Grant Balfour, Joaquin Benoit, Edward Mujica, and Fernando Rodney.
Expected Contract
Nathan will be voiding his option in search of a multiyear deal, but three years is difficult to picture given his age. Rivera's two-year, $30MM deal signed after the 2010 season is Nathan's ceiling. Soriano's two-year, $28MM pact could be another point of reference, though that contract has heavy deferrals and a vesting option, and covers the pitcher's age 33-34 seasons. Ultimately I think Nathan will sign a two-year, $26MM deal with a club option for 2016.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Jose Dariel Abreu About To Agree To $68MM Deal
9:28pm: The Rangers will not sign Abreu, Yahoo! Sports' Jeff Passan tweets. The Astros and Red Sox likely will not, either. The White Sox still appear to be the favorites, although there might still be a "mystery team" involved.
7:29pm: Cuban first baseman Jose Dariel Abreu is "finalizing" a six-year, $68MM contract, likely with the White Sox, FOX Sports' Ken Rosenthal tweets. Abreu is represented by Praver Shapiro Sports Management. The deal would be the largest contract ever for an international free agent. It would easily surpass the six-year, $42MM deal Yasiel Puig received from the Dodgers last June.
This afternoon, it emerged that Abreu was deciding between the White Sox, Red Sox and Astros. The Rangers, Marlins and Giants had also shown interest.
Abreu, 26, defected from Cuba two months ago. He put up massive numbers in Cuba's Serie Nacional, winning over-the-top praise for his power and earning comparisons to Ryan Howard. Some experts have raised doubts about his bat speed, however, and his defense and athleticism are not highly regarded. Tim Dierkes' profile of Abreu predicted he would receive a six-year, $54MM contract.
Cafardo On Price, BoSox, Granderson, Loney, Dodgers
While David Price has resigned himself to being traded, the Rays appear to be trying to figure out ways to make their ace the focal point of their pitching staff for many years to come, according to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. Cafardo notes, however, the Rays' front office realizes it could be a losing battle, so a trade is likely with nearly half of baseball rumored to be interested in the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner. "It's a big name, a big-time pitcher," one National League GM told Cafardo. "Even if you feel you don't need that level of pitcher, you look into it because he's so special and such a game changer. You do more than kick the tires. You try to make something happen, and I think you'll see teams that don't even need him step up." Here's more from Cafardo's column:
- The Red Sox will likely trade one of their veteran starters to make room for their young arms. Cafardo suggests Jon Lester and Jake Peavy could be available while Ryan Dempster, John Lackey, and Felix Doubront are also vulnerable.
- Jacoby Ellsbury is a perfect fit for the Mariners and Carlos Beltran likewise for the Orioles.
- Curtis Granderson will likely receive a qualifying offer from the Yankees and there's a strong possibility he would take it because he could post his biggest numbers at Yankee Stadium.
- The Dodgers will make Andre Ethier and/or Matt Kemp available this winter. Kemp will come with injury concerns, but that shouldn't prevent a team from taking a chance on his talent.
- James Loney has rebuilt his value with a strong season in Tampa (.299/.348/.430 with a 2.1 oWAR in 158 games and 598 plate appearances). Loney could find a market with the Rangers, if the Rays don't re-sign the free agent first baseman.
- Reds pitching coach Bryan Price appears to be the front-runner to replace Dusty Baker as manager in Cincinnati while Nationals bench coach Randy Knorr is in a strong position to take over from Davey Johnson, unless ownership wants a bigger name as its new manager.
Sherman’s Latest: Tanaka, Kuroda, Red Sox
On Friday it was reported that the Yankees are expected to be serious players for Japanese ace Masahiro Tanaka. While many teams figure to be in the mix, the New York Post's Joel Sherman offered up a look at why the Yankees, specifically, will be motivated to sign Tanaka. Here are some of the highlights from Sherman's latest work…
- The Yankees want to re-energize their fanbase and generate interest in buying tickets again, and adding Tanaka would allow them to do so without shattering the luxury tax threshold, as the posting fee wouldn't go against that figure. Sherman spoke with multiple executives who told him that each team is set to receive about $25MM from national TV revenue, and the Yankees also received a good chunk of money when News Corp. bought 49 percent of the YES Network. As Sherman puts it: "The Yanks have a big pile of newfound money to use lavishly for a posting bid."
- Sherman also lists the Red Sox, Rangers, Giants, Diamondbacks and Blue Jays as suitors for Tanaka.
- The Yankees may be extra-motivated to sign Tanaka due to the fact that many within the organization believe Hiroki Kuroda is leaning toward returning to Japan to finish his career.
- In a separate piece, Sherman writes that Boston's decision on whether or not to tender qualifying offers to Jacoby Ellsbury, Stephen Drew, Mike Napoli and Jarrod Saltalamacchia will shape the market. Sherman spoke with four Major League executives — two from the AL and two from the NL — and asked about the Red Sox quartet's chances at receiving a qualifying offer. All four agreed that Ellsbury will receive one. Both AL execs and one of the NL expected Napoli to receive an offer, while just one of the NL execs thought that Drew and Saltalamacchia would get offers. Sherman offers his own expectation as well, predicting that all four will receive qualifying offers.
Rangers Re-Sign Jason Frasor
The Rangers announced, via press release, that they have re-signed right-hander Jason Frasor to a one-year deal. The contract is reportedly worth $1.75MM and also includes incentives. The 36-year-old Frasor is represented by agent Dave Meier.
General manager Jon Daniels signed Frasor to a one-year, $1.5MM contract last January and was able to retain him at a bargain price despite a strong performance in 2013. Frasor pitched to a 2.57 ERA with 8.8 K/9, 3.7 BB/9 and a 44.6 percent ground-ball rate in his first season with the Rangers. While he did post an abnormally low BABIP (.250) and strand runners at a career-high rate (81.4 percent), FIP and SIERA both still liked Frasor at 3.37 and 3.44, respectively.
Frasor is just one piece of the team's bullpen puzzle this offseason, however. All-Star closer Joe Nathan has the ability to void the team's club option in search of a multiyear deal on the open market and is expected to do so. Daniels went on record recently as saying that the team's preference has never been to spend heavily on relief pitching, but he added that the team will continue to discuss retaining Nathan. Re-signing Frasor at a below-market rate could help to make that more feasible.
Should Nathan walk, Texas is well-equipped to absorb the blow with Frasor back in the fold. He will join setup man Tanner Scheppers and a healthier Joakim Soria at the back of the Ranger 'pen, as will lefties Robbie Ross and Neal Cotts, each of whom was excellent in 2013. Neftali Feliz figures to be back in the mix in 2014 as well, which should give the team flexibility in regards to determining the versatile Alexi Ogando's role.
Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News first reported the signing (on Twitter).
Yankees Expected To Aggressively Pursue Tanaka
Masahiro Tanaka's video-game numbers for NPB's Rakuten Golden Eagles this season have turned quite a few heads in the United States, and according to George A. King III of the New York Post, the Yankees "are going to be serious players" for the Japanese ace.
King spoke with several executives who guessed that the posting fee for Tanaka could go as high as $60MM, but the Yankees aren't overly concerned about that number given the fact that the posting fee wouldn't count against their stated desire to get underneath baseball's $189MM luxury tax threshhold. The expected $50-60MM contract that would go along with such a posting fee — contract totals are usually in the same ballpark as the posting fee — certainly would.
King writes that assistant GM Billy Eppler and pro scout/former Mariners manager Don Wakamatsu have both watched Tanaka extensively this season. While the common consensus has been that Tanaka is a lesser prospect than Yu Darvish was prior to joining the Majors, King spoke to a scout who prefers Tanaka to Darvish:
"He is better than Darvish because he is a strike thrower," the scout said. "Overall, Darvish’s stuff might be a little bit better, but this guy knows how to pitch. He is like Kuroda, he has a lot of guts. He throws four pitches but when it gets to [stone]-cutting time, it’s fastball and splitter."
Tanaka, who doesn't turn 25 years old until Nov. 1, is 22-0 for the Golden Eagles with a 1.23 ERA. His strikeout rate has dipped slightly from previous seasons, though he still manages nearly eight whiffs per nine innings and has averaged just over one walk per nine innings as well. His splitter is such a wipeout pitch that Baseball America's Ben Badler called it perhaps the best splitter in the world back in late August.
The Yankees will have competition for Tanaka — one talent evaluator told King that the Red Sox, Dodgers and Rangers will be in the mix as well — but they also have a clear need for starting pitching with Andy Pettitte's retirement and Hiroki Kuroda's uncertain future. New York also saw CC Sabathia decline in 2013 and is unsure what, if anything, they can receive in the future from Michael Pineda.
AL Notes: Piniella, Rangers, Yankees, Hardy, Flaherty
As the A's and Tigers battle to see who will face off against the Red Sox for the American League crown, let's check in around the league …
- The Mariners went to former manager Lou Piniella in hopes that he would come out of retirement and take over the club, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. The longtime skipper declined, however, leaving the M's with a long list of remaining possibilities to work through. Now 70, Piniella was on board for the franchise's best years in the mid-90's and early-aughts. As Rosenthal notes, he is the only Seattle manager to have stayed at the helm for more than four seasons, or to have drawn up a lineup card for a post-season game.
- Meanwhile, the Rangers are all set at the top but are working through a series of internal shifts in the lower levels of the field staff and front office. In the dugout, manager Ron Washington and GM Jon Daniels are preparing to hire a bench coach and first base coach, reports the Fort Worth Star-Telegram. Candidates for the former include former managers Eric Wedge and Jim Tracy. Among those wearing dress socks rather than stirrups, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reports, a broader restructuring is underway.
- Those expecting a full-blown Yankees collapse may be somewhat naive, writes ESPN.com's Buster Olney (subscription required). The club still has real talent on its roster and will, as ever, be able to exercise its unmatched financial muscle. Indeed, as I recently noted, the Yanks' current payroll commitments are still well short of the club's historical levels, or even the $189MM luxury tax threshold. At present, the Bombers are obligated for $89MM next year (only seventh-highest league-wide), just under $70MM for 2015 and 2016, and $26MM in 2017.
- For the AL East-rival Orioles, Manny Machado's just-announced surgery could provide additional impetus for an extension of shortstop J.J. Hardy. The Orioles should do just that, says Rich Dubroff of CSNBaltimore.com. Another three-year extension is not out of line, in Dubroff's opinion. Hardy, 31, is entering the final season of a three-year, $21MM deal he inked with the O's in July 2011. He had yet another strong campaign in 2013, putting up a .263/.306/.433 line with 25 home runs and receiving excellent defensive reviews.
- One possible temporary fill-in for Machado, utilityman Ryan Flaherty, was a rare Rule 5 draftee to make it in the bigs, Dubroff writes. The 27-year-old was a valuable contributor this year for Baltimore, netting 1.0 bWAR and 1.4 fWAR in 271 plate appearances while logging time all over the diamond. He will play for the league minimum again in 2014.
NL West Notes: Kemp, Price, CarGo, Tulo, Gray
The Dodgers announced this week that Matt Kemp underwent surgery to repair the A-C joint in his left shoulder. Kemp, who was ruled out for the postseason due to an ankle injury, is expected to be ready for Spring Training, at which point the Dodgers will possess an interesting outfield logjam due to the presence of Yasiel Puig, Carl Crawford and Andre Ethier. Here's more out of the NL West…
- On yesterday's Baseball Tonight Podcast, ESPN's Buster Olney told colleague Tim Kurkjian that the Dodgers are expected to be the most aggressive team in pursuing a trade for David Price this offseason. A Price acquisition would give the Dodgers an unthinkably dominant front four of Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, Price and Hyun-jin Ryu. Olney also names the Mariners and Rangers as possibilities, though he questions whether or not Price would want to sign an extension in Seattle.
- Rockies owner Dick Monfort says Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki are staying put, writes Troy Renck of the Denver Post. "The plan is to keep them. Next year, yes. And my plan is to always keep them," Monfort said. "Is that the smartest thing in the world to do? I don't know. But for our fans I think it's the best thing to do."
- Monfort also noted to Renck that the Rockies' payroll is expected to rise from this year's mark of $83.7MM to the $90-95MM range in 2014. He would like the team to add a starting pitcher and another big bat this offseason. MLBTR's Zach Links recently looked at the club's needs in the Colorado installment of the offseason outlook series.
- MLB.com's Jim Callis called Rockies 2013 first-rounder Jonathan Gray "the class of the 2013 draft," saying that he has a higher ceiling than that of fellow Top 3 picks Mark Appel (Astros) and Kris Bryant (Cubs). Callis notes that the Rockies have had trouble developing pitching, but opines that Gray has clear ace potential and could reach the Majors in a hurry.
Zach Links contributed to this post.
Latest On Alexander Guerrero
Cuban second baseman Alexander Guerrero is back on the free agent market after his engagement with the Dodgers was called off in September. Now, the Scott Boras client is seeking a four-year deal from interested MLB teams. However, some of the clubs that are in on Guerrero are pushing for a longer pact.
Heyman cites the Dodgers, Giants, Rangers, Red Sox, and Reds as clubs with interest in the 26-year-old. Guerrero and Los Angeles were closing in on a five-year, $32MM deal last month but the deal fell apart for reasons that are still unknown. The 86ing of the near-agreement also coincided with a change in representation as Guerrero left his former agent for Boras.
Guerrero played mostly shortstop in Cuba's Serie Nacional, but most scouts expect him to move to the other side of the bag for defensive purposes. He slashed .290/.402/.576 with 21 home runs in 328 plate appearances in his final season in Cuba. According to Ben Badler of Baseball America, Guerrero doesn't figure to be a premium talent, but he does offer impressive raw right-handed power.