AL West Notes: Andrus, Luhnow
Earlier today, Dave Cameron of Fangraphs explored a hypothetical swap of super-prospects: Rangers shortstop Jurickson Profar and Cardinals outfielder Oscar Taveras. Even if one were to prefer the upside of Taveras to the floor of Profar, Cameron says, the present value of Profar to the middle-infield-hungry Cards tilts clearly in favor of such a deal for St. Louis. For the Rangers, though, Taveras is not quite as clean a fit, as the club would presumably need to move Nelson Cruz to first. And giving up Profar now could hurt the team's chances of landing another hypothetical trade target: Giancarlo Stanton. If Texas asked for the Cardinals to kick in something more to sweeten the deal, however, it would begin to look less attractive to St. Louis. Thus, while St. Louis GM John Mozeliak says he'd have to consider such a deal (Twitter link), Cameron concludes that it is unlikely to materialize.
- MLBTR has learned of some additional provisions contained in Elvis Andrus's recent extension, each of which would figure in if the Rangers ever looked to trade the shortstop. In addition to a limited no-trade clause, Andrus would obtain full no-trade protection for the balance of the contract if he is traded at any point. Further, the previously reported vesting club option for 2023 would instead become a player option if Andrus is with a different team when the contract expires in 2022 (assuming, of course, that the deal has not already terminated via one of its opt-out clauses.) The potential club option and player option both vest upon the same 2021-22 plate appearance thresholds.
- The Astros, firmly in rebuilding mode, may well have the right baseball operations leadership to make it successful. Houston GM Jeff Luhnow, the Cardinals' scouting director from 2005-11, is credited with drafting more 2013 Opening Day major leaguers (21) than any other scouting director. Baseball America's Conor Glassey broke down Luhnow's many successes, which make up a sizeable portion of St. Louis's current (and likely future) roster.
Rangers To Extend Elvis Andrus
As Rangers GM Jon Daniels explained, the club has officially agreed to "an unusual deal" with 24-year-old shortstop Elvis Andrus. The deal is nominally an eight-year, $120MM extension, bringing the team's total commitment to Andrus to $131.275MM over the next ten seasons. But that is far from the entire story.
Andrus's previous three-year, $14.4MM contract expires after 2014. His new deal provides that he will receive $15MM for the following six years (2015-2020) and $14MM for the final two seasons (2021-22). Andrus also received a $2MM signing bonus.
However, the contract also includes two opt-out clauses that give Andrus the right to become a free agent after either the 2018 or the 2019 season. If Andrus opts out at the first possible chance, as the club anticipates, then the deal will effectively revert to a four-year, $62MM extension.
In effect, then, the Rangers have ensured control over Andrus for the next six years. The Rangers now have an enviable surplus of middle infield talent locked up with Andrus, Jurickson Profar and Ian Kinsler all under team control through at least the 2018 season. (The Rangers have a team option over Kinsler for 2018, and Profar would not be eligible for free agency until 2019 at the earliest.) The Rangers could move Kinsler to first base or outfield next season, or look to trade him this offseason. Of course, the club could also consider dealing Profar for prime talent in the outfield or rotation.
While Texas has obtained security and flexibility up the middle, the opt-out clauses also add risk, as Andrus gets two chances at a walk year. In essence, if Texas has six years of control over Andrus, then the player has control over the final four seasons. Should Andrus suffer injury or see his abilities slip, he could decide not to opt out and leave the Rangers on the hook for an additional $58MM over 2019-2022.
There is one other (perhaps unlikely) major scenario that the contract contemplates. If Andrus chooses not to opt out but remains an effective everyday player, the deal could expand by another year and another $15MM. Here's how: Should Andrus stay in Texas and make either 550 plate appearances in 2022, or 1,100 appearances combined in 2021-22, then a $15MM team option vests for 2023. But, if Andrus reaches those PA targets and instead plays out the contract with another club (presumably as a result of a trade or waiver claim), then a $15MM player option vests for 2023.
The possibility of a 2023 player option vesting is one potential deterrent to a future trade involving Andrus. The extension also provides Andrus with direct protection through a ten-team, partial no-trade clause that kicks in for 2016. Also, if Andrus is traded, he receives full no-trade protection (against his new team) over any subsequent deals for the duration of the contract.
As MLBTR's Extension Tracker shows, Andrus' contract is unprecedented for a player of his type. His $120MM guarantee in new money is $1MM more than the $119MM that was guaranteed to Troy Tulowitzki following his last contract extension, but Andrus' bat isn't nearly as potent. While Tulowitzki's overall contract is still larger (he signed that extension midway through a six-year, $31MM contract), Scott Boras has managed to secure the largest extension ever for a shortstop in terms of new money. Indeed, despite being years away from the open market, Andrus bested the $106MM guarantee achieved by Jose Reyes in free agency last offseason.
Andrus has a career .274/.342/.352 batting line and just 14 homers in 2595 plate appearances, but the Rangers are clearly paying him based on his elite defense and baserunning. Ultimate Zone Rating pegs Andrus as having saved 29 runs with his defense from 2009-12, while The Fielding Bible has him at 23. Fangraphs ranks his baserunning ability second only to Michael Bourn over that same four-year stretch.
Boras typically encourages his clients to test free agency, but the Andrus deal marks the second time in the past three weeks that a Boras client has signed a long-term extension before hitting the open market. Carlos Gomez recently signed a three-year $24MM contract Brewers despite already being controlled through the 2013 season. Perhaps frustration over free agents Kyle Lohse and, to a lesser extent, Michael Bourn this offseason have prompted a change in Boras' philosophy.
Andrus was the subject of trade rumors all offseason as a result of Profar's presence in the minor leagues and the Rangers' heavy interest in Justin Upton. General manager Jon Daniels maintained all along, however, that he refused to include Andrus in a deal. The new contract serves as an exclamation point on Texas' faith that Andrus will continue to be an elite defender whose offensive game will grow.
This is the second extension of the calendar year for the Rangers, who inked Opening Day starter Matt Harrison to a five-year, $55MM deal in January.
Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports first reported that the two sides were nearing an agreement. Jon Heyman of CBS Sports was the first to report an agreement had been reached. MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan added details surrounding the opt-out clause and option year. Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reported that the deal would include two out clauses (Twitter link). Anthony Andro of FOX Sports Southwest tweeted Andrus's signing bonus and annual salary, and reported on the official press conference.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Jeff Todd contributed to this post.
Quick Hits: Taveras, Profar, Posey, Zimmerman
In an interview with MLB Network Radio's Casey Stern and Jim Bowden (audio link), Cardinals GM John Mozeliak said that he would have to consider a hypothetical swap of Oscar Taveras and the Rangers' Jurickson Profar. Mozeliak went on to say that while the club is well set in the outfield for years to come, they're not quite as strong in the middle infield. Here's more from around baseball..
- Since word of the Elvis Andrus extension leaked, the Rangers have received at least a couple of trade inquiries on Profar, writes Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com. However, Rangers people say they are as high on Profar as ever and have no intention or need to trade him.
- Even though it's costly to secure insurance for baseball contracts, the Giants are looking into a policy for Buster Posey's lucrative deal, writes Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle. An insurer might demand an exclusion for any injury related to the left ankle that he damaged in the 2011 collision with the Marlins' Scott Cousins.
- Nationals third baseman and Brodie Van Wagenen client Ryan Zimmerman is intrigued by Jay-Z's partnership with CAA, writes Bill Ladson of MLB.com. “When you get a guy like [Jay-Z], who wants to get involved in baseball — he is obviously one of the icons of our generation for his music,” Zimmerman said. “I think he has become a very savvy and smart businessman. It will be interesting to see what happens and where it goes and how it goes."
Quick Hits: Red Sox, Posey, Cano, Indians
Pirates GM Neal Huntington and Rays GM Andrew Friedman claim that their decisions to leave Gerrit Cole (Pirates) and Wil Myers (Rays) in the minors to start the 2013 season were motivated not by service-time concerns, but by those players' readiness, MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo reports. Mayo says the scouts he's spoken to can't blame Huntington for sending Cole to Triple-A Indianapolis, since Cole has very limited experience at that level. Friedman, meanwhile, says that he needs to be sure a player is ready before having him compete in the tough AL East. "The AL East will expose very quickly any weaknesses that you have," he says. "So when we bring someone here, we need to feel that he's ready to step in and help us win right away."
Red Sox GM Ben Cherington, in contrast, says his organization promoted Jackie Bradley Jr. to start the season — even though doing so could affect Bradley's timetable for free agency — because Bradley is one of the organization's 25 best players, Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald reports. "At the end, if there was that level of confidence that he was part of the best 25-man roster, then we felt he should be on the team. That’s part of our responsibility to the fans and to the organization," Cherington says. In addition, Cherington notes, the Red Sox begin their season with plenty of games within their division, and it's especially crucial that they do well in those games. Their first four series against the Yankees, Blue Jays, Orioles and Rays, all AL East opponents. Here are more notes from around the majors.
- The Giants have locked up catcher Buster Posey with an eight-year, $159MM extension, but in Keith Law's latest podcast for ESPN, Posey's agent, Jeff Berry of Creative Artist Agency (CAA), contemplates what might have happened if Posey and the Giants had decided to go year-to-year through the arbitration system. Berry argues that Posey's situation would have been unique, because Posey has won an MVP and a Rookie of the Year award and has played for two World Series-winning teams, but after missing much of 2011 to injury, he doesn't have particularly impressive career bulk counting stats, which are a factor in arbitration hearings. "The challenge, first and foremost, in the arb system was looking at, 'Wow, this guy has accomplished things that no one else has ever done, but [among superstars in the arbitration process] he's also played less than anyone,'" Berry says.
- Reacting to Robinson Cano's decision to fire Scott Boras and hire CAA and the rapper Jay-Z as his representation, one agent says that "Jay-Z doesn’t know s— about baseball," Michael O'Keeffe of the New York Daily News writes. "You don’t hire a real estate agent to do neurosurgery," the agent continues. O'Keeffe goes on to note that, of course, Jay-Z will not be negotiating a deal for Cano, who will be a free agent after the season. That duty will go to CAA, which represents Posey and a number of other MLB stars. Here are more reactions to Cano's agency switch.
- This year's Indians are excited about the team's offseason spending spree, Marla Ridenour of the Akron Beacon Journal reports. "Hats off to Chris Antonetti and the Dolan family, after losing 94 games [in 2012] they very easily could have folded up shop and said, 'Let’s wait for a few more young kids to develop and see what we’ve got,'" says Jason Giambi, who signed a minor-league deal with Cleveland in February. Instead, he says, "[t]hey went out and got some guys and spent some money. They put together a good ballclub, now we have to answer the bell and play good."
- The Rangers had scouts watching pitcher Joba Chamberlain in spring training, but the Rangers and Yankees never ended up discussing a deal, George A. King III and Zach Braziller of the New York Post write. King and Braziller note that Chamberlain impressed the Yankees with a spring training performance that included nine strikeouts in 10 1/3 innings.
AL Notes: Rodriguez, Andrus, Kazmir, Snyder
The changing nature of free agency has been a hot topic of late, as MLBTR noted earlier today. A series of high-profile extensions this spring have reinforced an apparent new trend towards teams retaining their best young players with long-term deals. As Larry Stone of the Seattle Times posits, this trend also increases the importance of scouting and developing young players, with MLB's recent spending limits potentially leveling the playing field between large and small-market clubs.
- Alex Rodriguez's record-breaking 2007 contract extension with the Yankees was re-visited in a piece on Saturday from David Waldstein of the New York Times. Waldstein reports on the events that ensued after Rodriguez exercised the opt-out clause in his contract, with the announcement infamously coming in the midst of what turned out to be the final game of the World Series. After receiving counsel from people ranging from Mariano Rivera to Warren Buffett, Rodriguez apologized to Hal and Hank Steinbrenner to pave the way to a new deal with the Yanks. The unprecedented contract included a $265MM salary guarantee over ten seasons, a $10MM signing bonus, and career home run milestone payments of up to $30MM. With Rodriguez now suffering from some combination of ineffectiveness, injury, and intrigue, Waldstein writes, New York may be exploring a variety of ways to get out from under the deal.
- An opt-out clause could play a big role in another potential ten-year commitment: the recently-inked eight-year, $120MM extension between Elvis Andrus and the Rangers. As Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports explains, the deal's opt-out clause is likely to turn the Andrus extension into a four-year, $60MM deal. While this seems to be a big concession by Texas, Rosenthal says it was necessary to lock up four of the Scott Boras client's free agent years. The club will pursue insurance to protect itself in the event that Andrus does not exercise the opt-out clause due to injury. The deal also gives the Rangers plenty of flexibility to take advantage of super-prospect Jurickson Profar, either in their lineup (at second base) or via trade.
- While still not conforming his new deal, Andrus commented today on his relationship with Boras, as reported by T.R. Sullivan of MLB.com. Discussing his agent's penchant for testing the market, Andrus said: "We're the boss. I know everybody thinks that about Scott but it's different if you're the one in that position. He works for us. I know he tries to get the best deal that he can but it comes down to my choice and what's better for me and my family."
- Scott Kazmir appears close to coming all the way back to the big leagues after being activated by the Indians, writes Paul Hoynes of The Plain Dealer. In a corresponding move, the club optioned left-hander Nick Hagadone to Triple-A. Kazmir, who will now receive a $1MM base salary after initially signing a minor league deal, may still have to wait to actually make an appearance after straining his ab. As the Indians noted on Twitter, today's transaction allows the club to back-date a Kazmir DL stint if he is not ready to go.
- The Red Sox are signing infielder Brandon Snyder to a minor league deal, as first reported by Chris Cotillo (Twitter link). Alex Speier of WEEI.com confirmed (via Twitter) that Snyder, who was recently released by the Rangers, has signed with Boston and is headed to Triple-A Pawtucket.
Rangers Release Brandon Allen
The Rangers have released Brandon Allen, according to the CBSSports.com transactions page. The Rangers signed the first baseman to a minor league deal back in December.
Allen, 26, appeared in seven games for the Rays last season before being sold to Japan's Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks. In parts of four seasons at the Triple-A level, Allen owns a .283/.390/.543 batting line.
AL West Notes: Rangers, Astros, Andrus, Norris
It was Opening Day in Texas on Sunday, but the Astros' 8-2 win over the Rangers wasn't the biggest story out of the Lone Star State. Late last night, the Rangers agreed to an eight-year, $120MM deal with an opt-out clause after year four that will keep star shortstop Elvis Andrus locked up until he's at least 30. Here's more out of the American League West..
- The Andrus deal shows that the Rangers are thinking ahead, writes Steven Goldman of SB Nation. While Andrus doesn't provide tremendous offensive firepower, he is among the best all-around shortstops in the game thanks to his defense.
- Bud Norris said that the adrenaline was flowing as he took the hill against Texas last night and one reporter asked if he was excited about the prospect of earning a trade out of Houston. The pitcher sidestepped the question, but Norris could be an attractive piece for a contending club this season, writes Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com.
- Earlier today, Steve Adams rounded up reactions to the Andrus deal from around the web.
Elvis Andrus Extension Reactions
Earlier today it was reported that the Rangers and Elvis Andrus have agreed to an eight-year extension that will keep Andrus in Texas through the 2022 season and pay him $120MM in new money ($131.275MM total). Here's a look at some media reactions to the game's newest nine-figure player…
- Extensions will continue to become more and more frequent as the average team revenue from national TV contracts will jump from $25MM to $52MM in 2014, writes Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. Rosenthal writes that it will be interesting to see how this affects the Yankees' negotiations with Robinson Cano, who, like Andrus, is represented by Scott Boras.
- Adam Kilgore of the Washington post tweets that the Andrus contract likely "throws a pipe bomb" into the Nationals' negotiations with Ian Desmond.
- Dave Cameron of Fangraphs calls Andrus one of the game's best examples of how defense and baserunning can make up for lack of power, and notes that the deal means Jurickson Profar is now the second baseman of the future in Texas. Ian Kinsler will likely move to first base, the outfield or another team, in Cameron's mind.
Rangers, Elvis Andrus Nearing Deal
Shortstop Elvis Andrus and the Rangers are "close" on an eight-year deal that could be worth $120MM, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports (on Twitter). Andrus is a Scott Boras client, as shown in MLBTR's Agency Database.
Andrus, 24, has hit .275/.342/.353 in four big-league seasons, but he also provides significant and consistent value with his fielding and his baserunning. He had his best offensive year so far in 2012, hitting .286/.349/.378 in 711 plate appearances. Andrus is currently in the second year of a three-year, $14.4MM contract that covers all three of what would have been his arbitration-eligible seasons. He is currently set to make $4.8MM in 2013.
If Andrus were to reach agreement on a new deal with the Rangers, it would cap a span of just a few days in which Justin Verlander, Buster Posey, Adam Wainwright and Paul Goldschmidt all also signed big-money deals to remain with their current teams. An Andrus mega-contract would be somewhat novel, in that position players with his lack of offensive firepower (he has virtually no home run power and has yet to post an OPS+ higher than 91) rarely get such deals, but Andrus' youth and fielding ability make him a very valuable commodity.
An eight-year deal would put Andrus in line for free agency at the age of 33, an idea that isn't appealing to the shortstop's camp, a source tells Jeff Wilson of the Star-Telegram (on Twitter). However, a deal of this magnitude could put those concerns to rest.
The Rangers also have top prospect and fellow shortstop Jurickson Profar at Triple-A, and it's unclear how an Andrus extension might affect his future. The Rangers could keep them both and use Profar at second base, with Ian Kinsler, who is signed through 2017, moving to DH or first base.
Rangers General Manager Jon Daniels worked out one other extension this winter when he inked Matt Harrison to a five-year, $55MM deal, according to MLBTR's Extension Tracker. Texas has also shown that they aren't afraid to hammer out a contract after Opening Day as they gave Ian Kinsler his five-year, $75MM deal in early April last year.
West Notes: Freiman, Goldschmidt, Borbon
Rule 5 pick Nate Freiman has made the Athletics, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle notes (on Twitter). Freiman hit .298/.370/.502 for Double-A San Antonio in the Padres system last year. The Astros took him in the Rule 5 Draft, and he was later claimed by the A's. He will have to stick on Oakland's roster throughout the season if the A's intend to keep him. Freiman is expected to play primarily against lefties. Here are more notes from the West divisions.
- Diamondbacks GM Kevin Towers says the biggest hangup during negotiations of the Paul Goldschmidt extension was the team option at the end, AZCentral.com's Nick Piecoro writes. Goldschmidt's contract is a five-year deal that begins in 2014 and includes a $14.5MM team option for 2019, with a $2MM buyout. The contract guarantees Goldschmidt $32MM total. "We wanted at least a year of free agency and probably the thing that took the most time was they didn’t really want an option year," Towers says. "A mutual option, no option, guarantee six years. We had to have some kind of an option."
- Julio Borbon has made the Rangers' 25-man roster, but he might not have a spot when the Rangers add fifth starter Nick Tepesch on April 9, says MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan. Borbon is out of options, and the Rangers say they have had trade discussions about him. Borbon is 27 and has yet to establish himself in the majors, though, so other teams likely wouldn't be willing to part with solid talent in a trade.