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Cubs, Trevor Richards Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Cubs have agreed to a minor league contract with right-hander Trevor Richards, reports Aram Leighton of Just Baseball. Richards, a client of Apex Baseball, will be in big league camp as a non-roster invitee this spring.

The 31-year-old Richards has spent the bulk of the past four seasons with the Blue Jays but was traded to the Twins just prior to the 2024 trade deadline. He posted a 4.55 ERA with a 22.4% strikeout rate and a career-high 12.6% walk rate between Toronto and Minnesota this past season and carries a 4.60 earned run average over the past four seasons.

Richards has posted a combined 29.1% strikeout rate in 266 1/3 innings dating back to 2021, showing a clear ability to miss bats. He’s battled command troubles along the way, however, both in terms of finding the strike zone at all (11.3% walk rate, 29 wild pitches) and in terms of precision when he does put the ball over the plate (1.39 HR/9).

Although Richards is right-handed, he’s been far more effective against lefties than against righties, due in large part to his top secondary offering being a plus changeup. Lefty batters have hit just .220/.315/.371 against Richards in his career, while righties have a more productive .248/.320/.433 slash.

The Cubs have worked to add to their bullpen this offseason but thus far have made primarily marginal acquisitions. Chicago bid aggressively on top closer Tanner Scott — a notable departure from president Jed Hoyer’s aversion to multi-year deals for relievers — but were reportedly the runner-up prior to the Dodgers. The Cubs have signed Caleb Thielbar and acquired Eli Morgan from the Guardians. They’ll both be in the Opening Day bullpen. Other offseason pickups include DFA additions Matt Festa (acquired for cash) and Rob Zastryzny (claimed off waivers). Richards joins a group of non-roster signings also featuring Phil Bickford, Ben Heller and Brooks Kriske.

Cubs Interested In Carlos Estevez, Were Runners-Up For Tanner Scott

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7:15PM: The Cubs’ offer to Scott was a four-year deal worth $66MM, according to Jon Morosi.

5:43PM: Carlos Estevez ranked 22nd on MLBTR’s list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents, making him the top reliever left available on the market now that Tanner Scott, Jeff Hoffman, and Clay Holmes (who signed with the Mets as starter) have found new teams.  As one might expect, Estevez’s “market is intensifying,” MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reports, with the Blue Jays and Cubs among the teams in on the 32-year-old righty.

Toronto’s interest in Estevez was first reported last month, and the Reds, Yankees, and Red Sox have also been linked to Estevez at various points this winter.  The Cubs are a new team in the hunt, adding to the perception that Chicago is willing to be much more aggressive than usual in pursuing relief pitching.

After the Dodgers signed Scott to a four-year, $72MM deal earlier today, ESPN’s Jesse Rogers (multiple links) reported that the Cubs were second in the bidding, with an offer thought to be “in the ballpark” of what Scott received from Los Angeles.  This tracks with the Friday report from Morosi suggesting that the Cubs were one of Scott’s “top remaining suitors,” which was the first time the Cubs had been linked to the southpaw all winter.

Coming even close to a four-year, $72MM offer for a reliever represents a huge sea change in how Chicago usually approaches its bullpen.  President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer has never signed a reliever to a multi-year contract during his four-plus years in charge of the Cubs’ front office, and Hector Neris’ one-year, $9MM pact from a year ago represents the most money Hoyer has given to a relief pitcher.

Improving the relief corps was a stated goal for Hoyer heading into the offseason, and just earlier this week, the PBO stated that the team was still looking to add more to its bullpen.  Chicago’s biggest bullpen acquisitions of the winter have thus far fit Hoyer’s preferred lower-cost models — a one-year, $2.75MM deal with Caleb Thielbar, and trading for Eli Morgan, who will make $950K in 2025 and is arbitration-controlled through 20227.

Porter Hodge looked tremendous in his rookie season, to the point that he took over as the Cubs’ closer down the stretch when the team’s bullpen ranks were reduced by injury.  Hodge will certainly be in the high-leverage mix next year, though having him as a full-time closer could be a lot to ask of a second-year pitcher with just 43 big league innings on his resume.  Adding a veteran reliever with closing experience like Estevez makes a lot of sense for Chicago, even if Estevez might ultimately end up as a setup man if Hodge can handle being the primary ninth-inning option.

MLBTR projected Estevez for a three-year, $27MM contract, though it is unclear what exactly Estevez and his reps at Premier Talent are looking to land in second foray into the open market.  It is safe to say Estevez’s price tag will be much less than Scott’s contract, so if the Cubs were willing to venture into that spending area, Estevez should be well within their price range.  Signing Estevez to something in the range of MLBTR’s projection would also match the $9MM average annual value of the Neris contract, which could be more palatable for Hoyer.

It was two offseasons ago that Estevez signed a two-year, $13.5MM guarantee from the Angels, but it is safe to say his asking price has risen considerably after he established himself as a viable closing candidate.  Estevez has a 3.22 ERA over 117 1/3 innings with the Angels and Phillies over the last two seasons, and the 2024 campaign saw him reduce both his walk rate and (more troublingly) his strikeout rate.  Philadelphia is seemingly taking a less-costly approach to its own bullpen, so there doesn’t appear to be much chance of a reunion between Estevez and the Phillies, plus Hoffman already signed with the Blue Jays.

Seiya Suzuki To Be Cubs’ Primary DH In 2025

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At the yesterday’s Cubs Convention in Chicago, manager Craig Counsell spoke to the crowd (video link) about the club’s outfield mix and clarified the Cubs’ outfield plans for the year. As Counsell lays things out, Ian Happ and Pete Crow-Armstrong will remain entrenched as the club’s regulars in left field and center field respectively, while offseason acquisition Kyle Tucker will take over as the regular right fielder.

That’s generally agreed to be the Cubs’ best defensive alignment as things stand and has seemed to be the most likely outcome ever since the Cubs acquired Tucker last month. With that being said, one side effect of making Tucker the club’s regular right fielder is that incumbent right fielder Seiya Suzuki will be pushed to DH on a regular basis this year. That’s a reality Counsell acknowledged, noting that Suzuki will DH “a lot” this season.

“We talked to Seiya this week about that, and he understands that, and he’s on board with that,” Counsell said, and he went on to note that they view Suzuki as an “extra outfielder” who can fill in for Happ and Tucker in the event of an injury.

Even so, it’s notable that the Cubs appear committed to Suzuki as a primary DH in 2025. Suzuki’s agent, Joel Wolfe of Wasserman, spoke to reporters during the Winter Meetings last month about Suzuki and made clear that his client wanted to play the field. Wolfe even suggested that Suzuki likely “would not have signed with a team” who pitched being their everyday DH to him in free agency. Those comments helped to stoke trade rumors surrounding Suzuki throughout December, and while they started to die down after the club traded Cody Bellinger to the Yankees his name has continued to come up on occasion in the rumor mill.

Counsell’s comments yesterday seemingly put that conversation to bed, indicating that the club and Suzuki have resolved whatever discord may have existed between the sides over the issue. Given that Tucker is Gold Glove award winner who trails only Mookie Betts and Aaron Judge in Defensive Runs Saved as a right fielder since he made his MLB debut in 2018, perhaps Suzuki is more willing to move off of his natural position in deference to him than he was for Bellinger, who was an average defender in right field (+0 Fielding Run Value, +1 DRS) last year.

Even with Suzuki, Tucker, Crow-Armstrong, and Happ set to be regulars for the club in 2025, there appears to be a need for at least one more outfield-capable player on the roster. While Suzuki can seamlessly shift to a corner in the event that Happ or Tucker either needs a day off or heads to the injured list, there’s no clear backup to Crow-Armstrong on the club’s roster after the Cubs non-tendered Mike Tauchman back in November. Happ has the most center field experience of the club’s other regulars, but he hasn’t played a single inning there in the past two years and was last a regular fixture at the position back in 2020.

Alexander Canario and Kevin Alcántara are both on the club’s 40-man roster and capable of playing center field, although Canario has almost exclusively been used in the corners to this point in his big league career and the Cubs may prefer to avoid using a top prospect like Alcántara in a bench role. Should the club look for an external option capable of playing center field amid their reported search for additional bench depth, Michael A. Taylor and Kevin Pillar are among the bench center fielders still available in free agency.

Nico Hoerner Discusses Surgery Rehab

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The Cubs have attempted to retool their roster this winter in an effort to get back to the playoffs for the first time in a 162-game season since 2018. As they’ve done so, one of the biggest question marks facing the team this winter has been the status of second baseman Nico Hoerner. The Cubs revealed in late October that Hoerner had undergone flexor tendon surgery without providing a timeline for his return. The injury ultimately didn’t stop teams such as the Mariners from pursuing Hoerner on the trade market this winter as the Cubs tried to open up a spot on the infield for top prospect Matt Shaw, but rumors of a deal died down after Chicago shipped third baseman Isaac Paredes to Houston as part of the Kyle Tucker trade.

With those trade rumors seemingly a thing of the past, Hoerner figures to be in the Cubs organization on Opening Day 2025. Whether or not he’ll be in the lineup is another matter, however. As noted by Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune, Hoerner discussed his injury and rehab in detail at the Cubs Convention in Chicago earlier today. Per Montemurro, Hoerner noted that he played through the issue throughout the 2024 campaign and that it had the largest impact on his throwing in the field.

That reality is borne out in his defensive metrics last year. According to Statcast, the fielding that earned Hoerner a Gold Glove award in 2023 faltered somewhat last year. While his +10 Outs Above Average remained in this 95th percentile of all MLB fielders last year, Hoerner’s Fielding Run Value dipped from +11 in 2023 to +8 in 2024. Looking specifically at his arm strength, Hoerner saw his throws lose more than three ticks of velocity year-over-year as he averaged 79.1 mph on his throws in 2023 but just 75.7 mph in 2024.

Given how noticeably the injury was impacting Hoerner’s elite work on the infield, it’s not necessarily surprising that he and the Cubs are taking his rehab process slowly. As relayed by Montemurro, Hoerner has not yet begun a throwing program or hitting since he went under the knife back in October. With the Cubs’ first game of the 2025 season against the Dodgers in Tokyo just two months away, that casts some doubt on the second baseman’s ability to be ready for the start of Chicago’s season. To that end, Montemurro reports that Hoerner not only could not answer whether or not he’d be ready for the Tokyo Series in March, but also couldn’t comment on whether or not he’d be back on the field in time for the Cubs’ home opener on April 4.

That leaves Hoerner missing at least the season’s first couple of weeks on the table, and without a clear timeline for return the possibility of a somewhat longer absence cannot be fully ruled out. With Shaw seemingly set to take over for Paredes at third base, the club’s internal options to fill in for Hoerner currently appear to be Rule 5 draft pick Gage Workman and utility infielder Vidal Brujan. Those options don’t exactly inspire confidence as fill-ins for Hoerner in the event he’s not ready for the start of the season, so it’s not necessarily a surprise that the Cubs appear to be focused on bolstering their bench mix ahead of Spring Training. Chicago was connected to Yoán Moncada earlier this month, and other players such as Paul DeJong and Jose Iglesias could also make sense as depth options who could fill in for Hoerner to start the season and provide insurance in case Shaw struggles in his first taste of big league action.

Cubs Chairman Tom Ricketts Discusses Offseason, Payroll, Front Office

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The Cubs’ blockbuster trade for Kyle Tucker generated the biggest headlines in Wrigleyville this winter, with the team also adding such notables as Matthew Boyd, Colin Rea, Eli Morgan, Carson Kelly, and Caleb Thielbar to the roster.  President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer stated this week that the Cubs were still looking to add to the bench and bullpen, and recent reports suggest that the latter pursuit could even take the form of a big-ticket signing of Tanner Scott.

One of the over-arching questions about Chicago’s winter plans is exactly how much Hoyer had available to spend, and chairman Tom Ricketts addressed this point in an interview with The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney.  Ricketts said that the team expects to spend around the $241MM luxury tax threshold, which therefore gives the Cubs quite a bit of extra capacity, as RosterResource estimates its current tax number at roughly $198.3MM.

This doesn’t necessarily mean that the Cubs will be splashing around a lot of that cash in the coming weeks, however, as Ricketts said some money could be earmarked for upgrades at the trade deadline.  “We always have the ability to add payroll if we need to at the deadline.  And if there’s a piece we need to keep winning, there’s always that option,” Ricketts said.

The same wait-and-see mentality also impacts the remainder of the winter, as Ricketts noted that teams “don’t control the timing of when these guys sign.  And every offseason is different.  Nothing will happen for three weeks, and then one guy will sign.  And then three other guys want to sign in the next two days.  You just have to be flexible through the process, and keep an eye open at the end with some dry powder, in case there is someone that might be value-added that comes at a good price.”

A more expensive signing like Scott would take up a sizeable, yet not overwhelming, portion of Chicago’s budget space.  Rumors have persisted that the Cubs remain at least on the periphery of the Alex Bregman and Jack Flaherty markets, so despite Hoyer’s comments about the team’s focus on more lower-tier moves, Chicago can’t be entirely ruled out as a landing spot for either player until they sign elsewhere.  Bregman is reportedly not interested in a shorter-term deal with opt-outs while Flaherty is at least open to such an arrangement, so Flaherty could be a better fit as the type of “value-added” opportunity Ricketts describes (though any number of teams might also be interested in Flaherty in that same context).

The Cubs have taken a step back in their approach to payroll in recent years, as 2024 marked the first time since 2020 that Chicago’s Opening Day payroll landed within the league’s top ten spenders.  While the Cubs boosted payroll last year and into this offseason, some budget restraints are still clearly in place.  Most notably, the trade that sent Cody Bellinger to the Yankees was about unloading the majority of Bellinger’s remaining salary, in addition to clearing room for Tucker in Chicago’s outfield.

Fans have criticized Ricketts for this relative lack of spending from a big-market team, with some fingers pointed at the private investment firm Arctos for having an influence in this department.  Ricketts pushed back against this criticism in particular, noting that because Arctos has investments in multiple MLB teams, “they’re not allowed to participate in any baseball discussions, so they’re walled off from anything to do with payroll or player analysis….Ultimately, the private equity investors have very long-term horizons and are just looking to participate in the appreciation of sports assets in general.  They don’t need certain win totals or cash-flow numbers.  They’re just strong, silent partners.”

As always, the Competitive Balance Tax is calculated via average annual value plus additional player benefits, as opposed to just straight dollars — this is why the Cubs’ $227.7MM payroll in 2024 translated to a $239.9MM tax number, which put Chicago slightly over the $237MM tax threshold.  This means that the Cubs would have to give up two draft picks in order to sign a qualified free agent like Bregman, which is why non-qualified free agents like Scott or Flaherty could be preferable.

Not coincidentally, the Cubbies’ scaled-back spending through a semi-rebuild coincided with a dearth of postseason baseball.  After reaching the postseason in 2020, the Cubs had sub-.500 seasons in both 2021 and 2022 before posting identical 83-79 records in each of the last two seasons.  There has been plenty of frustration among Cubs fans over the last two years’ worth of near-misses, and it has led to speculation that Hoyer is facing extra pressure as he enters the last year of his contract as the team’s PBO.

Ricketts downplayed the idea of 2025 as a particularly important season, noting that “every year, the goal is the playoffs.”  While Ricketts didn’t give Hoyer an outright vote of confidence in terms of promised job security, the chairman did praise Hoyer’s big-picture approach to roster-building.

“You evaluate the front office on a couple levels.  Obviously, No. 1, is just the wins on the field,” Ricketts said.  “That’s the most obvious metric to check.  But it’s just overall organizational health.  One thing that’s been very encouraging over the past few years is that we have drafted better. And the guys that we have drafted have developed more quickly than some years past.  We put ourselves really behind the eight-ball a few years ago with a series of drafts that weren’t very productive.  And I think we’re on the other side of that now.  We’ve got a lot of players coming through, which will give Jed a lot of trade capital to go into the future.”

Evaluators and pundits have increasingly praised the state of the Cubs’ farm system, and this depth already manifested itself in the Tucker trade.  Isaac Paredes was included in the three-player trade package to the Astros because the Cubs have confidence that Matt Shaw is ready for regular third-base work, plus top prospect Cam Smith was also sent to Houston in the deal.

“Maybe in a few years, people will say we should have traded somebody else,” Ricketts said.  “But that’s what it is – there’s a balance to every trade.  In this case, I think Jed was right in assessing that we needed an impact bat this season.”

Ricketts also added that “hopefully, [Tucker will] enjoy his time here and he’ll be here a long time.”  Tucker is a free agent after the season, and while Ricketts naturally isn’t going to outright say that the Cubs view him as a just a one-year rental, his comment at least leaves open the possibility that the Cubs are willing to give Tucker the mega-deal that he’ll undoubtedly command if he keeps up his current form.  Jason Heyward’s $184MM contract remains the most expensive deal in Cubs history, and the club is very likely going to have to at least double that price to re-sign Tucker.

Tanner Scott Weighing Multiple Offers, Could Sign This Weekend

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The market may be heating up for free agency’s top reliever. Jon Morosi of the MLB Network reports that Tanner Scott is weighing multiple multi-year offers and may choose his team by this weekend.

Morosi suggests that the Cubs are among Scott’s top suitors. Chicago president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer said this week that the bullpen is “probably the area we’ve been focused on most in free agency.” There’d be no bigger upgrade than Scott, though that’d be an out-of-character move for Hoyer’s front office. The Cubs have not signed a free agent reliever to a multi-year deal or a guarantee above $9MM in more than five years.

Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic writes that while the Cubs do indeed like Scott, they may be reluctant to meet the asking price. Previous reporting has suggested that Scott’s annual salary could approach $20MM on what’d presumably be a three- or four-year contract. Even if the money doesn’t quite get to that level, this would be a major investment. Scott should easily land the top reliever deal of the winter.

The Dodgers have been tied to Scott for months. After landing Roki Sasaki, a back-end reliever is the last box on L.A.’s offseason checklist. The Braves have also shown interest, while the Mets were more recently reported as a suitor. That no longer seems to be the case. New York agreed to terms with A.J. Minter on a two-year, $22MM guarantee this afternoon. Mike Puma of The New York Post reports that the Minter deal means the Mets are expected to drop their run at Scott.

Scott has been one of the best relievers in baseball for two seasons. He fired 78 innings of 2.31 ERA ball for the Marlins in 2023. The 30-year-old southpaw was even better last year. Scott earned his first All-Star nod and combined for a sterling 1.75 earned run average through 72 frames between Miami and the Padres. He averages nearly 97 MPH on his fastball and has punched out at least 28% of opposing hitters in three straight seasons.

Cubs Pursuing Bullpen, Bench Acquisitions

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Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer recently appeared with David Kaplan and Gordon Wittenmyer on the Cubs REKAP Podcast. Asked about the team’s goals over the remainder of the offseason, the baseball ops leader pointed to two specific areas.

“Mostly focused right now on bench and bullpen, just trying to supplement the roster as much as we can. I feel good about our team but there’s obviously ways to improve,” Hoyer said. He later added that the “bullpen’s been probably the area we’ve been focused on most in free agency. I feel like we’re trying to make sure we upgrade our bench. Adding a veteran presence to our bench would be good.”

The Cubs have made a pair of low-cost bullpen pickups this winter. Chicago acquired righty Eli Morgan from the Guardians and added left-hander Caleb Thielbar on a $2.75MM free agent contract. Porter Hodge, Tyson Miller and Nate Pearson have all earned spots in the relief corps. Julian Merryweather and Keegan Thompson are out of options, so they’ll need to be on the MLB roster or be offered to other teams via trade or waivers. That’s also true of Matt Festa and Rob Zastryzny, though they’ve been recent depth acquisitions who could have an uphill path to cracking the roster. Swingman Colin Rea could open the season in long relief.

Chicago probably wouldn’t benefit from another middle innings arm. The priority should be finding an established late-game veteran. Hoyer famously has shied away from significant investments in the bullpen since the Cubs’ three-year deal with Craig Kimbrel. Chicago hasn’t signed a reliever to a multi-year contract or an eight-figure guarantee since that June 2019 acquisition.

That’d make it a big surprise if the Cubs jump in on Tanner Scott, who could land three or four years at something between $15MM and $20MM annually. Chicago could also be reluctant to meet the ask on Carlos Estévez, but this offseason presents a few opportunities for clubs to add a veteran closer on a short-term contract.

Kirby Yates, David Robertson and Kenley Jansen are all coming off productive seasons. Yates, who turned in a 1.17 earned run average while striking out 36% of opponents over 61 1/3 innings for the Rangers, was arguably a top three reliever in the league. Each of those players will be limited to one- or two-year deals. Robertson, who pitched well for the Cubs early in 2022, will almost certainly be limited to one year as he enters his age-40 season.

On the position player side, there’s a clear need for a depth infielder. Vidal Bruján, Rule 5 pick Gage Workman, and Luis Vazquez are the top options to back up the expected starting infield of Michael Busch, Nico Hoerner, Dansby Swanson and prospect Matt Shaw. A multi-positional player who can provide some cover at third base in case Shaw struggles makes sense. Yoán Moncada, Jon Berti, Enrique Hernández and Paul DeJong are potential options.

The Cubs already signed Carson Kelly to back up Miguel Amaya behind the dish. They have Ian Happ, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Kyle Tucker and Seiya Suzuki lined up for outfield/designated hitter work. Alexander Canario is out of options, so he probably has a leg up on the fourth outfield role. Canario doesn’t play center field, though, so the Cubs could look for a glove-first veteran (potentially on a minor league deal) to back up Crow-Armstrong. Highly-regarded prospect Kevin Alcántara can play up the middle, but Hoyer indicated he preferred for the organization’s top young talents to play everyday in the majors or in Triple-A.

As far as a potential bigger addition goes, Hoyer was asked about the recent report from Bruce Levine of 670 The Score that the Cubs had “casual” dialogue with Alex Bregman regarding a short-term deal. Hoyer declined to comment on that report itself — team personnel are prohibited from publicly commenting on whether they’re pursuing specific free agents — but reiterated generally that the front office was “looking to supplement the roster” (implying they were less likely to make a huge splash). Bregman’s agent Scott Boras said this morning that the All-Star third baseman was still focused on landing a long-term contract anyhow.

Fans, especially those of the Cubs, are encouraged to watch the hour-long interview. Hoyer speaks about transactions from previous seasons and provides some insight into the process for finalizing free agent deals and trades. He also fields questions on whether MLB will ever see a $1 billion free agent, handling fan expectations as a baseball operations leader, weathering the ups and downs of a 162-game season, and Sammy Sosa’s anticipated return at this weekend’s Cubs Convention.

Cubs, Kyle Tucker Avoid Arbitration

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The Cubs and Kyle Tucker have avoided arbitration, reports Jesse Rogers of ESPN. The outfielder will make $16.5MM next year and won’t need to go to a hearing. Tucker is represented by Excel Sports Management.

Last week was the arbitration filing deadline, meaning that any teams and players who did not come to agreements had to exchange filing figures. The Cubs and Tucker did not agree, with the club filing at $15MM and Tucker at $17.5MM. The $2.5MM gap between their numbers was the largest of the 17 filings. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz had projected Tucker for a $15.8MM salary this year. If a hearing came to pass, the arbiter would have had to select either Tucker’s number or the club’s, with no ability to pick a midpoint.

That made the likelihood of a hearing very high. Teams and players are allowed to continue negotiating and free to reach deals after the filing deadline, though most teams take a “file-and-trial” approach these days. That means they have a policy against doing one-year deals after the deadline, thus giving them leverage in salary talks. When a file-and-trial team does a deal after the deadline, it usually involves an extra year, perhaps as an option. That prevents it from being used as a precedent in future arbitration calculations, so the overall trend of file-and-trial policies is to slow the inflation of salaries.

The Cubs have been a file-and-trial team, as most are these days, but have made an exception here. None of the reporting on Tucker’s deal suggests that there’s any kind of option. He is an impending free agent and excellent player, so he wasn’t going to give away a free agent year on a club option. The two sides could have agreed to some kind of mutual option that would never be picked up, but don’t appear to have done so.

It’s unclear why the Cubs broke from their usual policy here, paying Tucker beyond the midpoint of the filing numbers and his MLBTR projection. Speculatively speaking, it could be because he was just acquired from the Astros and the Cubs didn’t want to tarnish the beginning of their relationship with their new star player. An arbitration hearing can sometimes lead to friction between player and team, with Corbin Burnes with the Brewers and Ryan Helsley with the Cardinals some recent examples. Burnes spoke of his negative arbitration experience in February of 2023, while Helsley recounted his to Foul Territory in March of last year.

Tucker has previously gone to an arbitration hearing. He first qualified for arbitration going into 2023, with he and the Astros unable to reach an agreement for his salary that year. He filed at $7.5MM and the Astros at $5MM, with the club ultimately emerging victorious. The two sides avoided arbitration for 2024 by agreeing to a $12MM salary.

It’s also perhaps possible that the Cubs would like to keep Tucker for the long term and didn’t want to sour the relationship with a bad first impression. President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer recently appeared on the Cubs Rekap Podcast with David Kaplan and Gordon Wittenmyer (hat tip to Michael Cerami of Bleacher Nation) and discussed Tucker’s situation, downplaying his concern about the relationship with Tucker. He also said that there are no conversations about an extension. Though the Cubs would love to have Tucker long term, Hoyer suggested they would probably approach him about contract talks later, suggesting that playing in front of the home crowd at Wrigley would help their chances.

While it may be true that Tucker will enjoy the experience of being a Cub this year, there are still reasons to expect an extension isn’t likely. He’s been one of the best players in baseball recently. In the eyes of FanGraphs, he essentially averaged five wins above replacement per year from 2020 to 2023. He produced 1.8 fWAR in the shortened 2020 season, then finished the next three seasons with either 4.9 or 5.0 fWAR. In 2024, he took things to a new level with 4.2 fWAR in just 78 games, missing significant time due to a shin fracture.

He has hit .279/.358/.525 over those five seasons for a wRC+ of 143. He has stolen 88 bases and received strong grades for his outfield defense. His 20.9 fWAR over those years puts him in the top 15 among all position players in the league. He likely would have been in the top ten if not for fouling a ball off his shin and fracturing it last year.

Given that production and the fact that Tucker is set to be a free agent going into his age-29 season, he is well positioned for a significant payday. To lock up an MVP-caliber player a year before free agency isn’t cheap, as shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker. Mookie Betts got $365MM from the Dodgers while Francisco Lindor got $341MM from the Mets. The largest deal in Cubs’ history is their $184MM pact with Jason Heyward, so they would likely have to double that to keep Tucker from becoming a free agent next winter.

Yankees Acquire Michael Arias

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The Yankees announced that they have acquired right-hander Michael Arias from the Cubs in exchange for cash considerations. The latter club had designated Arias for assignment earlier this week. The Yankees have multiple 40-man vacancies and don’t need to make a corresponding move.

Arias, 23, was originally an international signing of the Blue Jays. Signed as a shortstop, he was released and then signed by the Cubs, who moved him to the mound. Arias has shown some potential as a pitcher but lack of control has been the biggest drawback, which isn’t especially surprising for a guy who has only been in this role for a few years.

Overall, Arias has thrown 182 innings across multiple levels over the past four years, allowing 4.25 earned runs per nine. His 27.7% strikeout rate in that time is a solid number, but his 16.5% walk rate is quite high.

Despite the issues, the Cubs added him to their 40-man roster in November of 2023 to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft. His control didn’t improve in 2024, as he tossed 60 1/3 innings between Double-A and Triple-A with a 4.77 ERA, 25.2% strikeout rate and 16.8% walk rate. When the Cubs signed Colin Rea, they bumped Arias off the roster.

For the Yankees, they have a few roster spots open, so there’s little harm in taking a flier. Arias still has a couple of options and can be kept in the minors as they try to help him harness his stuff better. Per Eric Longenhagen and Travis Ice of FanGraphs, his arsenal includes “a mid-90s sinker, a potentially plus-plus changeup, and a righty-dowsing slider.”

MLBTR Podcast: The Jeff Hoffman Situation, Justin Verlander, And The Marlins’ Rotation

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

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