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Cubs Still Discussing Zito, Tejada

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Just got off the phone with Dave Kaplan, host of Sports Central on WGN Radio 720 out of Chicago.  He gave me the latest on where the Cubs stand with Barry Zito. 

Billy Beane is not sure whether he’ll deal Zito now or in July.  However, the teams have had discussions recently, and the A’s like the Cubs’ farm system quite a bit.  A deal for several of the Cubs’ young arms is a distinct possibility.  The A’s aren’t looking for Matt Murton in the trade, but rather pitchers like Rich Hill, Angel Guzman, and Sean Marshall.  There’s been plenty of debate on this site about Rich Hill’s future in the Major Leagues, but it’s a fact that many teams absolutely love him and are trying to pry him away from the Cubs.  Hill has a ton of trade value.  Anyway, sit tight on the Zito idea; nothing’s going down today.

Kaplan also mentioned that the Tejada trade is "not dead" for the Cubs.  I don’t know which names are currently being tossed around, but rest assured the Cubs still have a chance at acquiring him. 

Buzz Around The Game

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Let’s take a look at what some other sources are reporting today on the rumor front.

Troy E. Renck of the Denver Post mentions that Marquis Grissom’s agent said he will sign with the Cubs.  When you look at Grissom’s 2005, there’s not much to like.  He doesn’t get on base and he’s pushing 40.  On the flip side, Grissom mashed lefties to the tune of .315/.356/.577 in 2004 and he’d make a great platoon partner for Jacque Jones. 

UPDATE: You probably assumed this, but I’ve verified with a reliable source that the Grissom deal is for one year and will be incentive-based.  Nothing unexpected, but worth a mention.

The Mets are apparently finalizing a deal for Danys Baez where they’d give up either Jae Seo or Aaron Heilman plus prospects.  In my opinion, this trade is going to weaken the Mets in 2006.  I’ve projected Baez to post an ERA near 4.  Click here to read MetsBlog’s take.

From my inbox today: "You would be crediable if your rumors actually came true."  Why do some people spend so much time writing long, incoherent emails about how they don’t like my site?  Just stop reading it if you don’t like it.

Dave Kaplan of WGN Radio Chicago has reported that the Cubs are in discussions for Barry Zito.  Wouldn’t be bad to see a durable pitcher on the North Side of Chicago to complement Zambrano.

As you’ve certainly read, Miguel Tejada still wants out.  More on details on teams in play later today.

Cubs Close To Signing Preston Wilson?

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I’ve got the latest Cubs scoop tonight.  This is thirdhand information originating from a baseball scout, but I do think it’s legitimate.  The source is telling me that the Cubs are close to signing Preston Wilson. 

It seems that the Tejada deal is dead and the Orioles have rejected the Cubs’ offer.  Cubs GM Jim Hendry is looking in another direction for some added power in the lineup, and Wilson is his type of player.  By that, I mean that Wilson is an affordable outfielder with average to below average plate discipline.  He’s a career .264/.333/.478 hitter.

The acquisition would push Jacque Jones to left field, a position he hasn’t played since 2003.  Matt Murton would platoon with Jones and face southpaws.  Wilson would take over in right field, a position he’s played for just 19 games in his career.  The source also mentioned that Corey Patterson is as good as gone, although we pretty much assumed that.

Cubs Tejada Trade On The Table

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An emailer reports that the Cubs are awaiting word from the Orioles on this offer:

Cubs get:

Miguel Tejada, Erik Bedard

Orioles get:

Mark Prior, Rich Hill, Corey Patterson

This proposal is on the table.  The report comes from Bruce Levine on ESPN Radio 1000. 

The pros and cons of this deal have been debated endlessly on this site.  To restate my opinion: this move works as a "win now" move.  The Cubs would add something like seven wins, so they’d need some additional upgrades or players outplaying projections to be favored as the division winner.  A couple of options I like:

Platoon Jacque Jones with Matt Murton and acquire a slugging left fielder.  Cliff Floyd would only become available if the Mets acquire Manny Ramirez.  While the Cubs aren’t thrilled with Luis Gonzalez, he’s still a top ten LF and could push them over the top.

Trade for Jeff Kent.  He’s one of the five best second basemen, and I’m firmly in the camp that Ronny Cedeno will not be a Major League success.  Kent’s obviously a force in the Dodgers’ lineup, but the Cubs could come on strong and top the Mets’ weak offer.  The Dodgers may want to get some young players in return before Kent’s contract is up.  Just a thought.

Update: Prior-Tejada Trade

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A couple of emailers have informed me of a radio report by Bruce Levine on ESPN Radio 1000.  Levine was the first to report the Juan Pierre trade earlier this month.

According to the emailers, the Cubs are waiting to hear back from the Orioles (Angelos will be involved) on this offer:

Cubs receive Miguel Tejada and Erik Bedard for Mark Prior, Rich Hill, and Corey Patterson.

Essentially, Patterson is a non-factor in discussing 2006 value.  Hill would also not be likely to add much value to a Major League rotation next year.  As I mentioned yesterday, this trade nets the Cubs seven wins if everyone plays at their 2005 level.

While beloved by Cubs fans, Prior’s history of elbow problems coupled with two freak injuries have limited his playing time for the team.  He’s averaged 166 innings over the last three seasons.  Interesting quote in Buster Olney’s blog for ESPN this morning:

"Executives with other teams are assuming, by the way, that Baltimore owner Peter Angelos would likely kill any proposal once club doctors review Prior’s recent medical history." 

Bedard is certainly not a pitcher of Prior’s caliber, whether evaluated based on performance or durability.  He’s averaged 140 innings over the last two seasons. 

Any discussion surrounding Bedard’s potential inevitably references his first half of 2005.  He posted a 2.08 ERA in 60 innings before the break.  Most encouraging about the successful run was Bedard’s walk rate, which was around 2.1 per nine.  He’s walked 4.1 per nine on average in the Major Leagues, and 3.3 per nine in the minors.  According to Baseball Prospectus, lefty Bob Ojeda circa 1984 is the closest match to Bedard (although Bedard has better strikeout numbers).  Ojeda had a nice decade in the 80s, and reached his peak with 18 wins and a 2.57 ERA for the World Champion 1986 Mets.

Baltimore Sun journalist Jeff Zrebiec’s opinion on all of this?

"The Orioles clearly want to keep the shortstop but seem to be at least willing to deal him if the price is right. However as of now, it appears that Tejada will remain an Oriole at least through Christmas."   

Cubs Willing To Trade Prior?

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Ken Rosenthal’s got Chicago buzzing:

"The Cubs, aggressively pursuing a blockbuster trade for Orioles shortstop Miguel Tejada, are willing to part with a top starting pitcher, most likely right-hander Mark Prior, sources tell FOXSports.com."

According to Rosenthal, the talks stalled when the Cubs insisted on receiving Erik Bedard and Tejada without surrendering Felix Pie or a top pitching prospect.

A longshot three-way deal involving Manny Ramirez, Tejada, and Prior was also mentioned.

As stated here back in November, Bedard is very much available.  Bedard is more than a year older than Prior, and is even more fragile.  I’ve projected Bedard at a 3.74 ERA in 170 innings in 2006.  I originally had Prior at a 3.37 ERA in 202 innings, although the ERA could be more like 3.53 after I make some more adjustments.

Bedard is a lot further away from free agency than Prior, having only two Major League seasons under his belt.  He and Tejada would be a fair return for Prior, even if the Cubs had to include Rich Hill in the deal as the "top pitching prospect."  Using 2005 stats and assuming no contribution from any prospects sent by the Cubs, this is a trade that would net the Cubs seven wins in 2006.  Is the present team a .500 club?  If so, this trade could propel the Cubs to the playoffs.

Still, I can’t help having that ominous feeling that the Cubs could be letting a major talent slip away.  At just 25, Prior’s best seasons are probably yet to come (2003 excepted.) Miguel Tejada will turn 30 in May, and you can’t help but worry about his .276/.322/.416 line in 308 post All-Star break at-bats.  Sure, people will say he was uninspired and maybe mention the Palmeiro distraction, but the seed of doubt remains.

Buzz Around The Game

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Let’s see what we’ve got going on today in a potpourri-style format.

As predicted, Eric Byrnes was non-tendered last night.  I can’t possibly think of a better way for the Cubs to turn the Jacque Jones signing into a positive.  If you sum up Byrnes and Jones’ salaries, you’ll be getting solid stats from RF for the price.  Assuming Dusty Baker understands what a platoon is and how all that works. 

Of course, it’s probably one more roster spot than the Cubs wanted to use on this type of thing since they already have John Mabry.  But Mabry can back up Aramis Ramirez, and the Cubs can carry one less pitcher and make it work.  I put a word in to a Cubs source of mine, and he agreed that the idea makes sense (who wouldn’t agree) and mentioned that the Cubs have liked Byrnes in the past. 

UPDATE: Just talked to a second Cubs source, and he echoed the sentiment held by many readers of the site: Hendry didn’t give Jones $16MM to platoon him.  He’s a full-timer for the most part.

Kirby Arnold reports that the Mariners offered Gil Meche to the Cubs for Corey Patterson.  At first, I said, "Sure, why not."  But then I looked at Meche’s numbers,  and I realized there’s no way he can help the ballclub.  When a pitcher loses his ability to strike batters out, as Meche may have, he has to counter the increased hits he’s surrendering with good control.  Or the ability to keep the ball in the park.  Meche appears to have none of these traits, and would be a frustrating spot starter who would allow tons of baserunners. I might rather have Josh Fogg at this point.  There’s got to be something slightly better out there for the Cubs.

Alfonso Soriano won’t move off second base for the Nationals and is pretty much raising a stink about being dealt to Washington.  Let’s see here, are there any teams with GMs dumber than Jim Bowden who might make a trade for Sori?  Dan O’Brien’s club doesn’t have a need for a 2B; Placido Polanco is firmly entrenched in Detroit…maybe Littlefield is interested?

Is Millwood really getting a five year deal from someone?  Insane.  Incredible timing to have your 2.86 ERA season.  Best timing award for the NL: Todd Jones.

My Mets guy is saying the club is still talking to the Dodgers about Jeff Kent, but right now it’s a "pipe dream."  Doesn’t seem like the two teams will agree on anything.  The Mets still have some faith in Victor Zambrano (or maybe they’re just trying to save face), but Omar feels that after adding Julian Tavarez his bullpen will be pretty much set.

The Mariners seem desperate to get rid of Jeremy Reed after pushing hard to obtain him for Freddy Garcia.  I guess they don’t understand that center fielders are hard to find and Reed will get better.  After the masterstroke that was the Johjima signing, Bill Bavasi has taken a step backward with Jarrod Washburn.

   

Cubs Sign Jacque Jones

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The Cubs cornered the market on guys who sound like they’re French but aren’t by signing Jacque Jones to a three-year, $16MM deal to play alongside Juan Pierre.  Rounding out the French wannabe All-Star team are Alexis Rios, Joaquin Benoit, and Xavier Nady. 

I’m guessing Cubs fans will be less than thrilled with this signing based on the initial reaction.  That the deal was for three years only adds to the anguish.  Here’s how lboros at Viva El Birdos put it:

"Encouraging news out of the Windy City, per Sun-Times: the Cubs reportedly have made an offer to Jacque Jones. A double gift — like having a tornado just barely miss your house and instead tear the roof off your obnoxious neighbor’s place."

Yep, that pretty much sums it up from a Cards fan point of view.  I’m trying to find a silver lining here for Cubs fans.  Jones was exactly as good as Jeromy Burnitz in 2005 – tied for the 9th best RF in the game.  Slight positive note: Jones is a slightly better player once you even out their playing time.  I’m really grasping here, but if Jones somehow returned to his 2002 level – .300/.341/.511 – that would be on par with what Jorge Posada and Jorge Cantu did in 2005.  OK, that was weak.

The best Cubs fans can hope for is that Jones gets platooned at some point in the near future.  Here’s his line against righties for each of the last three seasons:

.268/.348/.466
.258/.310/.465
.317/.342/.492

So that’s tolerable.  Let’s see here, are there any available lefty mashers who can play the outfield?  Here’s a short list of available outfielders and their lines against lefties in 2005.

Kevin Mench     .296/.380/.600
Craig Monroe    .303/.360/.549
Preston Wilson  .262/.336/.571
Eric Byrnes        .344/.406/.599 (2004)

Byrnes might be non-tendered tonight by the Orioles; why not take a flyer on a fun, hardworking player who can hide Jacque’s inadequacies?  Such a move would greatly redeem Hendry in my mind, and he’d look less dumb too.

 

Kerry Wood for Vidro & Church?

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A new Cubs trade rumor found its way into my inbox this morning courtesy of loyal reader Derek.  Yesterday, Jim Williams wrote a column for the Washington Examiner suggesting the Cubs might deal Kerry Wood for Jose Vidro and Ryan Church this spring.

He mentions the health issues surrounding both Wood and Vidro and that both players would have to be ready to play.  Williams also says Wood’s huge contract could be a concern.  Looking at the numbers, Wood makes $11MM in 2006 and has a $13.5MM option for 2007 with a $3MM buyout attached.  Vidro will make $7MM in ’06, $7.5MM in ’07, and $8.5MM in ’08.  Church makes the minimum, having played just 132 games in the bigs.

I talked to three of my Cubs sources to see if they thought this rumor had any validity.  One called it "totally absurd."  The another said that given Wood’s blanket no-trade clause, the rumor’s not feasible.  I haven’t been able to find Jim Williams’s email address to ask him about that aspect of the deal.  A third source called the rumor sounded "shaky," saying that Wood would probably approve a deal to the Astros or Rangers, but not the Nationals.  He mentioned that Wood will need more than spring training to prove his shoulder is healthy, and a July trade wouldn’t be a surprise.   

My thoughts on the players: Vidro’s decline is coming on fast and he may never be completely healthy again.  Church will be a solid Major Leaguer if he gets the opportunity.  Wood seems destined for the bullpen in the long-term, perhaps with a Gagne-like run in the cards. 

Adam Eaton On The Block

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ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick spoke to Adam Eaton last week, and his article definitely gives the vibe that the righthander won’t be staying in San Diego past 2006. 

Eaton’s opinion of the Padres’ three-year, $17MM offer?

"It was almost like a slap in the face compared to what I’m capable of doing."

That’s an amusing statement.  Here’s my translation:

"I’ve pitched almost 800 Major League innings and have posted a medicore 4.35 ERA for my career.  I’ve never pitched more than 200 innings or had an ERA below 4 in a season, in a pitcher’s ballpark to boot.  But since I’m under 30 and don’t completely suck, I’m worth at least $10MM per season.  I’m insulted that you’ve only offered me $5MM per season."

Given that impressive resume, it’s no surprise teams are beating down the door to acquire Eaton.  No, really, they are.  These are the interested parties, according to Crasnick:

Rangers
Nationals
Tigers
Orioles
Red Sox
Cubs

Thoughts on a few of these suitors:

The Rangers have been shaky about including both Gerald Laird and Adrian Gonzalez to get a deal done, and they reportedly backed out of such a deal earlier this month.  Eaton has been below average in home run prevention throughout his career, so I’m not sure he’s the best fit for Ameriquest.  But Texas can’t count on Vicente Padilla to fill the void left by Kenny Rogers, so it’s likely they’ll bring another starter in this winter.

If Eaton could remain healthy, he’d give Washington solid starting pitching depth.  1-5, it’d go John Patterson, Livan Hernandez, Eaton, Brian Lawrence, and Ryan Drese.  Top prospect Mike Hinckley will need some time before he’s ready to step in.  A swap of Ryan Church for Eaton sounds like fair value to me, and Church would be a nice fit in left field for the Pads.

I’m not sure that the Cubs have what Padres GM Kevin Towers would want for Eaton.  Plus, the point of Hendry adding another starter was seemingly to add a durable pitcher to the mix in the event that Kerry Wood can’t make 30 starts.  Eaton is anything but durable.   

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