Jim Hendry Trade Profile
Jim Hendry took over as the General Manager of the Cubs on July 5th, 2002. The team was awful that year, finishing 67-95. However, the team’s Pythagorean record of 76-86 indicated better things to come. Let’s take a look at Hendry’s deals over the years, and try to determine his tendencies and favorite trading partners. He’s been quite active, making 48 trades by my count.
One trend I noticed is that Hendry hasn’t gotten much in return when trying to dump veterans from out-of-contention clubs. He failed to trade Fred McGriff in ’02, opting to send off Darren Lewis for Chad Hermansen at the July deadline. That year, Hendry preferred to dump off his vets in August, ditching Tom Gordon, Jeff Fassero, and Bill Mueller for nothing of consequence. (He later dumped many vets like Matt Lawton, Greg Maddux, Todd Hollandsworth, Phil Nevin, Scott Williamson, Todd Walker, and Neifi Perez without receiving useful players.)
Hendry’s first offseason was a success. He revamped his catching corps by getting Damian Miller and Paul Bako, and somehow managed to send off Todd Hundley for two helpful players in Mark Grudzielanek and Eric Karros. The Cubs netted about six wins in ’03 with the acquisitions. Hermansen was in that deal so maybe we can say Hendry acquired one useful player in a salary dump trade.
You’ll notice that much of the core of the current Cubs team came from Hendry’s generally fine trading skills. He fleeced Dave Littefield for Aramis Ramirez and Kenny Lofton in July of ’03, and went back to grab Randall Simon in August. Ramirez was only 25 at the time of the deal and had hit 34 HR as a 23 year-old. Unbelievable that Bobby Hill could get this done.
Hendry’s finest trade came in the winter of ’03, when he acquired Derrek Lee for Hee Seop Choi during the Marlins’ fire sale. Choi never panned out, while Lee blossomed into a star. Marlins GM Larry Beinfest exacted his revenge on Hendry two years later in the Juan Pierre deal – one of Hendry’s few trade missteps. Hendry surrendered useful young pitchers Ricky Nolasco, Sergio Mitre, and Renyel Pinto for Pierre. A month after the Lee trade Hendry acquired Michael Barrett from Billy Beane for Damian Miller – another win.
The Cubs didn’t give up anything too useful in their blockbuster trade of the summer of ’04, acquiring Nomar Garciaparra and Matt Murton. Even though Nomar didn’t help the Cubs, they came out ahead with Murton. Hendry has quietly gotten the better of Billy Beane and Theo Epstein.
The Sammy Sosa trade in February of ’05 didn’t bring the Cubs anything useful; Jerry Hairston Jr. never panned out. But that was a salary dump, and Hendry did the best he could with a player he simply had to trade away. A year later the Cubs couldn’t stand another minute with Corey Patterson, and he became an Oriole too. That one made Hendry look foolish. A third trade of the same variety was made in May of ’05, when Hendry sent the much-maligned LaTroy Hawkins to the Giants for Jerome Williams and David Aardsma. That was his only "forced" type trade that resulted in useful players.
Hendry waited a while to find a replacement for the injured Lee in ’06, eventually settling on a league average Phil Nevin from Texas. The Cubs soon became sellers that year, and the best Hendry could do for Greg Maddux was Cesar Izturis. He’s generally much better as a buyer than a seller, except for the Pierre deal.
Hendry’s favorite trading partners are Theo Epstein and Dave Littlefield; he’s made four deals with each. He also enjoys dealing with the Orioles’ braintrust, Larry Beinfest, Dave Dombrowski, Doug Melvin, and Dan O’Dowd. His one and only crosstown trade came this winter with the Neal Cotts–David Aardsma deal; that one’s too early to call. Click here to Download chicago_cubs_hendry.xls – Hendry’s entire trading record in a spreadsheet.
While Hendry’s free agency record is questionable, he comes out as a strong trader upon review. Cubs fans should have confidence that he’ll add some helpful players in July and August if the team is in the race.
Angels Interested In Garrett Atkins
Last year, Rockies third baseman Garrett Atkins was the second-best hitter at his position, behind only Miguel Cabrera. Atkins isn’t set to reach free agency until 2011, making him a very valuable commodity. The Rockies had talks with him this offseason about a deal covering his arbitration years and first year of free agency, but no agreement could be reached.
Now, both the Denver Post and L.A. Times are reporting that the Angels are interested in trading for Atkins. Troy E. Renck of the Post says Atkins’s name first came up during the Winter Meetings when the two clubs were discussing a Todd Helton deal. Renck writes that Ervin Santana would be a must in any trade and that the Angels also have interest in Brad Hawpe and Jeff Baker. He also says Atkins is still considered a core member of the team, so a deal is unlikely. I wonder if Bill Stoneman is trying to take advantage of a subpar start for Atkins – his defense hasn’t been pretty and his power has been MIA.
From the L.A. side, Mike DiGiovanna adds several players on the Halos’ radar: Kevin Mench, Jacque Jones, Pat Burrell, Emil Brown, Morgan Ensberg, and Edwin Encarnacion. DiGiovanna agrees that Santana is the top trading chip. Santana could really blossom in the National League. With Freddy Garcia and Adam Eaton struggling and Brett Myers in the pen, the Phillies probably have the strongest need. Starters Joe Saunders and Dustin Moseley could be used if the Angels want to make a smaller deal.
As long as the Angels are making an all-out blitz for a third baseman, let’s speculate on some other possibilities. Mike Lowell, Chad Tracy, Hank Blalock have all been rumored in the past; the Rangers clearly have the biggest need for a starter. Santana, however, could be Brandon McCarthy all over again with his flyball tendencies.
Teams Inquiring About Zambrano
As one might expect, teams around baseball are calling Jim Hendry about Carlos Zambrano‘s availability. Ken Davidoff writes that he would have a long list of suitors, likely including the Yankees and Mets.
After spending all that money this offseason, the Cubs would probably not make a Zambrano trade that would significantly weaken them this year. That means they’d need a young MLB-ready starter in return, perhaps akin to when the Astros got Jason Hirsh for Jason Jennings.
Couple of clubs that could pull this off, in my opinion, are the Twins and Angels. The Twins could part with a Matt Garza, Kevin Slowey, or Glen Perkins. The Angels could surrender Nick Adenhart. The Tribe could give up Adam Miller. Those guys might still have some growing pains to endure in the AL, but a move to the NL Central could make them instant contributors. That would save some face for the Cubs. I could also see the Mets parting with Mike Pelfrey, though he hasn’t appeared quite ready for The Show. If Jason Schmidt flops, maybe the Dodgers would deal Chad Billingsley for a new ace.
I know, I know – your team’s best pitching prospect isn’t going anywhere for a rental. It’s not very common these days. Barry Zito played out the string with Oakland, and I could see the other Z doing the same with Chicago. But I do believe the Cubs would look for a near MLB-ready starter in return in any deal this summer. I don’t see much of a match for the Yanks.
Cubs Done With Prior?
Three newspapers, one message: Mark Prior‘s future with the Cubs is in doubt. You can ask Paul Sullivan, Gordon Wittenmyer, or Bruce Miles.
Prior recently had shoulder surgery with Dr. James Andrews, and he’ll accrue no Major League service time this year. You have to wonder if the Cubs sending Prior to Triple A initially was done with this in mind. Now, Prior won’t be eligible for free agency until after the 2009 season.
Should the Cubs cut ties with Prior and non-tender him this winter, or should they invest just a few million more to see if he can rise up out of the ashes and pitch like a fifth starter? As Wittenmyer writes, they’d have to pay him at least $2.86MM in ’08. Sullivan speculates that his salary would be close to what it is now, maybe $3.4MM or so. Let’s say he settles at $3.3MM.
Sometimes we see teams pass on their own players at perfectly reasonable prices, just to try something new. I hope the Cubs don’t do this here. All that has happened with Prior, all the hope and disappointment – it’s a sunk cost. The question is whether the Cubs should invest another $3.3MM in this man to see if he can provide 150 decent innings in 2008. I think the answer is yes.
His shoulder has been a problem for years, and now it will be clean of dead or scar tissue or whatever other crap has been floating around in there. The money is a drop in the bucket for the Cubs, and if there’s a 10% chance of getting two seasons of Chris Carpenter-type pitching, they have to do it.
Here is a list of starters who signed for between $3-4MM this offseason: David Wells, Steve Trachsel, Ramon Ortiz, and Tony Armas Jr. In the offseason I would’ve argued that none of them had a shot at ascending beyond fifth-starterdom, but Ortiz is doing his best to prove that wrong. Prior fits into this class but has more potential, as frustrating as he is.
Jim Hendry said he is just going to let the rehab process take place and make a decision on Prior down the road. That’s a perfectly reasonable approach.
No Deal For Zambrano?
Just saw Ken Rosenthal on TV, and he had his usual collection of inside information.
Rosenthal says that contract talks with the Cubs’ Carlos Zambrano are "about a week away from being tabled." All along we’ve been hearing how he’d likely remain a Cub, even with the impending sale of the team. Zambrano’s only had one good start in four tries this year; perhaps the Cubs want to see that ace again before committing. It seems silly that such a huge contract could be affected by four starts, but you never know. If Zambrano reaches the open market, the Cubs will likely be outbid.
Rosenthal also mentioned that instead of extending setup man Scott Linebrink‘s contract, he might become their best trading chip. They could look to upgrade at third base or left field, or even try to acquire their center fielder of the future. Most folks feel that Kevin Towers would find a way to replace him on the cheap.
UPDATE: There is now an accompanying article for these rumors.
Tigers Interested In Ohman
Look, it’s a real live trade rumor in April. Phil Rogers reports that the Tigers might make a move for a left-handed reliever, and the Cubs’ Will Ohman is on their radar.
Oddly, the Cubs are carrying three lefties right now in the pen – Ohman, Scott Eyre, and Neal Cotts. Last year, the 29 year-old Ohman put up 65 innings of 4.13 ERA ball, which included a K/9 over 10. He was excellent against lefties, but for some reason faced righties over half the time.
Ohman has done poorly in six appearances for the Cubs this year. Manager Lou Piniella recently commented on his 30 and 40-foot curveballs. If the Cubs don’t trade him, they’ll probably demote him soon enough. Ohman’s contract calls for $2.5MM over 2007-08, plus incentives.
Cubs Deals Proposed At BP
I know MLBTR can be a little Cub-centric at times, but hey, whatcha gonna do.
Nate Silver at Baseball Prospectus has an interesting Unfiltered post up today, outlining all sorts reasonable of trade scenarios the Cubs could pursue to clear up their outfield logjam.
Possible bounties for Jacque Jones, in Silver’s opinion: Mike MacDougal, Jon Lieber, or Erick Aybar. I think any of those trades would improve the Cubs this year. In particular, Lieber makes a fine fit. He once won 20 games for the Cubs, but would only need a 4.50ish ERA to be one of the game’s best fifth starters. I like the idea of giving Angel Guzman a shot at the job, but you can never have too much starting pitching depth.
Jones is owed $9MM for 2007-08, and could play center field in a pinch. I wonder if the Marlins would add him to their top-ranked offense? They could send Jorge Julio to balance salaries and a good prospect to make it worth the Cubs’ while. For some reason, Julio in a Cubs uniform seems all too fitting.
Felix Pie Debuts
Interesting development in Chicago, as Cubs top prospect Felix Pie has gotten the call and is leading off against the Padres today. Word is that Angel Guzman was sent down, so Alfonso Soriano will not need to hit the DL.
Here’s a quick look at Pie from a fantasy perspective. It seems like a brief taste, a chance to give Pie a week of starts in the bigs. Once Soriano is healthy, the Cubs will have a crowded outfield with Matt Murton, Cliff Floyd, and Jacque Jones, Daryle Ward, and Pie also in the picture. I doubt the Cubs want to use Pie as a fifth outfielder, so he’ll probably return to Triple A unless a Jones trade is in the offing. That kind of deal seems unlikely for April.
Ken Rosenthal’s Latest
Ken Rosenthal has a new update up over at FOX Sports. The trade rumor highlights:
- Plenty of teams are interested in Brewers reliever Jose Capellan: the Giants, Rockies, Devil Rays, and Nationals. I’m surprised that Capellan was deemed unworthy of the Brewers’ pen; he gave them 70 decent innings last year. Rosenthal mentions that the Nats might convert Capellan back to a starter. A fine idea, as that’s how Capellan came up with the Braves. He just needs to get his curve and changeup tuned up.
- The story on Mike Cameron remains the same: the Padres don’t want to go past two years. A few days from now the team should know whether a compromise can be reached. Maybe a middle-ground vesting option for 2010. He’s a good athlete; he’s not going to age as poorly as some guys. If he leaves, maybe the Pads would sign Aaron Rowand. UPDATE: Just saw Mr. Rosenthal on television, and he mentioned the Braves as a mighty fine fit for Cameron if he hits the market.
- Rosenthal seems to hint that the Cubs should still get a five-year, $80MMish deal done with Carlos Zambrano, perhaps within a few months. At least, he’s urging them to close the deal despite the team being up for sale this summer.
Zambrano Talks Cool Down, But Not Over
One person near the negotiations between Carlos Zambrano and the Cubs for a contract extension said that both sides have agreed to let things "cool down".
But that’s not to say the possibility of a deal has been greatly reduced. Zambrano and his agent have decided to extend the deadline for completion of the deal "indefinitely". Originally, the Zambrano camp had placed a deadline at Opening Day, but has since backed off of that given the news that the Cubs parent company, the Tribune Co., will be sold and that the buyer will then sell the Cubs in the offseason.
Both the Cubs, Zambrano and his handlers are saying that they think a deal can still be worked out despite this turn of events.
Tom Goyne is the author of Balls, Sticks, & Stuff, a Phillies-centric site, and maintains the Phloggers’ Pheeds page, a source for the latest commentary from around the "phlogosphere".