Ringolsby: Cubs Interested In Shealy
I’ve been waiting almost a month for a name to surface in connection with the Cubs’ first base vacancy that I actually like. I’ve heard about Mike Sweeney, Kevin Millar, Tony Clark, and Jeff Conine. While I was OK with the Clark idea, that deal made more sense two weeks ago. I could see Derrek Lee back on the field for the Cubs in about one month. In that case, you’d hope Jim Hendry could acquire a player who may be useful beyond then.
Even more ideal, though, would be acquiring a player who the Cubs might still want around if they cash in 2006 as a rebuilding year. Ryan Shealy fits that description. The 26 year-old right-handed first baseman is said to interest the Cubs. Granted it was for Colorado Springs, but Shealy hit .328/.393/.601 in Triple A last year. He’s at .293/.370/.683 in 11 games this season.
Acquiring Shealy is all about his 30 HR potential and nothing about his defense. The Rockies attempted to convert him into an outfielder this spring, and the increased throws caused an elbow injury. He’s a huge guy, and it’s not going to be pretty to see him lumber around the outfield.
I know you typically need an arm to play right field, but once Shealy’s elbow is 100%, why not try him in right field a bit? If Jeromy Burnitz can do it, maybe Shealy can too. Jacque Jones is 1 for 18 against lefties and is hitting .238/.295/.363 against them over the past three seasons. That’s like throwing Royce Clayton, Mike Matheny, or Neifi Perez out in right field. The Cubs, as much as any team, need to be able to hit southpaws. Maybe Shealy could push Matt Murton a bit too and DH in the AL interleague games. Trust me, the Cubs can find this guy 350-400 ABs.
The Cubs have been auditioning all sorts of kid pitchers this year, and it’s time to send one of them packing for Shealy before a smarter team like the Red Sox or Athletics snags him.
Should Cubs Add Tony Clark?
Word comes today that Tony Clark is willing to waive his no-trade clause if that’s what the Diamondbacks want. The Cubs are the obvious fit – should they go after him?
I vote yes. The Cubs’ offense was barely acceptable before Derrek Lee went down, and now it’s just plain feeble. This club cannot be backed into playing Neifi Perez regularly once again.
Clark is probably worth a win or two in Lee’s two month absence, and that easily justifies the $2MM owed to him through 2007. Josh Byrnes is a shrewd GM, however, so Hendry has to try not to send the next Dontrelle Willis over.
The issue of what to do with Clark once Lee comes back isn’t really an issue to me. The Cubs can use him to DH against the Indians and Mariners in June if Lee comes back early and otherwise add some pop and OBP to the bench. If Hendry can flip him somewhere in August, so be it.
Clark is not expensive and not a complainer. If Josh Byrnes isn’t asking for Rich Hill, I think a deal should be made. I wouldn’t expect Clark to hit .304/.366/.636 again, but he’ll improve the team by keeping Neifi on the bench.
Cubs Shopping Maddux?
A good one from the rumor mill over at Gotham Baseball. Unfortunately their page is not working right now so here’s a link to MetsBlog’s take on Gotham’s report. According to Gotham, Greg Maddux is being shopped. Interested parties: Mets, Yankees, Brewers, Phillies, Diamondbacks, Royals, and Cardinals.
The Cubs would essentially be reducing their rotation to "Carlos Zambrano and pray for a tornado," but Maddux is an impending free agent. My opinion from a couple of weeks ago: he’s the same old Mad Dog, just with a well-timed hot streak. Still, dealing him now would be a very early white flag for a Cubs team with a $94MM payroll. Doesn’t seem to compute. And the obligatory intradivision thing must be cited for the Brewers and Cards. I am surprised no West Coast teams have been mentioned.
Replacing Derrek Lee
The Cubs have plenty of external options to replace their All-Star first baseman. Still, IvyChat makes a fine point: Jim Hendry has very rarely made trades to cover for injuries (see Nomar, Alex Gonzalez.) Then again, there was one exception (quote from IvyChat):
"What’s ironic is that the only reason Hendry received the contract extension was due to a trade he made to fill in for an injury. If not for Korey Patterson‘s injury, the Cubs win nothing in 2003."
Link found via Baseball Musings.
RotoWorld adds that Michael Restovich was out of Triple A Iowa’s lineup last night, a possible indication that he will take Lee’s roster spot.
The Cubs are probably going to solve this one internally, a move that should cost them 2-3 wins this season. While I liked the Cubs to win the division (I’m an eternal optimist) I didn’t like them to win it by more than three games. And the three wins number assumes Lee misses just two months and returns as an All-Star, no sure thing.
MLB Free Agents 2007: Greg Maddux
It’s kind of funny to see Jay Mariotti jumping on the Greg Maddux bandwagon after two starts. The secret to Maddux’s quick start is not fitness. In reality, he’s the exact same Professor he has been for the last three years.
Maddux’s H/9 rate fluctuates from season to season. I don’t think he has a lot of control over this. Sure, in his 1992-98 insane peak he certainly allowed fewer hits for a reason. But he gave up tons of hits in ’99 and it looks like a fluke. He seems to have established a new general range since 2003. That range is to allow a little more than a hit per inning, which is fine if you’re walking 30 guys a year. The H/9 was 9.56 last year, his highest since ’99. If regression to the mean brings that down just a little bit and he continues allowing HRs at a league average pace, he’s a sub-4 ERA innings eater. Nothing has changed.
You can just look at the ERAs and see 3.96, 4.02, 4.24 and think well surely he’s due for a 4.40 or 4.50 this year. It’s not that simple, as Maddux could easily post a 3.80 despite being the exact same pitcher he was in ’03.
He’s going to throw a good 220-230 innings, mixing in the occasional rough start here and there. Maddux will have a disastrous start about 10% of the time and a dominant one about half the time (according to Ron Shandler’s PQS pitching logs). Otherwise he keeps you in ballgames, and is easily worth his $9MM salary.
Once he’s a free agent this offseason, he’ll probably shop around for a one-year, $7MM type deal. This would be an excellent signing for any team looking for reliability and depth over upside. Really, it makes sense for the Cubs to retain him. Too much sense, almost. Watch him go to the Padres or somewhere after no one shows interest.
If they don’t plan on re-signing him, or even if they do, the Cubs could look to trade Maddux in July. But even if Wood and Prior are going full steam at that point it’s a needless gamble. Unless a major injury creates a need, Maddux should stay put.
Cubs and D-Lee Close
Cubs fans are breathing a sigh of relief as the Cubs and Derrek Lee are closing in on a contract extension in the range of five years and $65MM. Lee for Hee Seop Choi and Mike Nannini is one of the best trades in the team’s history.
Lee is a player that I think you can safely call a Baseball Prospectus miss. In 2002, they remarked, "He’s not likely to take a big step forward and really be worth five or six wins. The Marlins should get what they can from him this season, then deal him to make room for Adrian Gonzalez."
Lee was worth 12.3 wins in 2005. He took the step forward. While he’s probably not going to earn $65MM through 2011, there simply aren’t any comparable players out there who can make this kind of difference right now.
A Lee contract extension coupled with Nick Johnson‘s signing really kills the 2007 first base free agent crop. The best option would probably be Sean Casey.
Carlos Lee To Cubs Deal Imminent
MLBTradeRumors has learned of a blockbuster deal that is expected to go down by the end of the day. Talks between Jim Hendry and Doug Melvin are in advanced stages of a rare interdivision trade.
The Cubs will send Matt Murton, Rich Hill, and Angel Guzman to the Brewers for slugger Carlos Lee. Lee will be a free agent after the 2006 season, and the Cubs intend to lock him up after finishing the Derrek Lee deal. According to my source, the Brewers view Lee’s impending free agency as a distraction and desperately want to shed his $8.5MM salary.
Lee is expected to bat fourth between the other Lee, Derek, and Aramis Ramirez.
What do you think? Did the Cubs overpay to get the other Lee?
Walker For Matos Swap In The Works
As has been rumored for a couple of days now, the Cubs and Orioles are close to swapping Todd Walker and Luis Matos. According to the Baltimore Sun, the salary difference is the only holdup.
While the Orioles’ purpose for acquiring Walker is reportedly for use as a DH or bat off the bench, a source of mine says that is not the whole story. According to the source, Brian Roberts is not where everyone thinks he is health-wise. He’s been mentioned as perhaps being ready for Opening Day, but that is highly unlikely. His type of elbow surgery is "largely unknown" according to Will Carroll.
Matos hasn’t been used in right field since 2003. He’s a right-handed hitter who has batted .236/.302/.353 vs. left-handers over the last three seasons. In other words, not the ideal platoon partner for Jacque Jones. I’m guessing the Cubs would carry he and Marquis Grissom as backup outfielders and attempt to find at-bats for Matos in left field.
The Cubs and Orioles have an amicable relationship, having worked out deals for Corey Patterson and Sammy Sosa in the recent past. In addition, the teams have talked extensively about Miguel Tejada.
A .290 Spring Training batting average has the Orioles thinking Patterson will make a capable regular for them in center field. While it’s worth a shot, Patterson should again have a hard time topping a .310 OBP.
Will Carroll Was Right…
But I doubt he’s happy about it. Paul Sullivan, the same Paul Sullivan implied Will Carroll didn’t deserve to be called a journalist, reports that Mark Prior has left camp with shoulder soreness. Maybe he should print an apology?
As Carroll has mentioned, he’s a huge fan of the Cubs and Prior. It’s a shame to see that the Cubs’ ace will already have his first start pushed back after all the quasi-claims of good health.
Cubs Still Looking At Soriano?
An emailer tells me that AM 670 The Score in Chicago reported yesterday that the Cubs are looking at Alfonso Soriano again. They’re hoping that Brian Dopirak or Brandon Sing put up big numbers in Spring Training to boost their trade value. There’s nothing on Score reporter George Ofman’s blog to this effect yet.
Currently, Dopirak is 5 for 9 with two home runs this spring. Sing is 4 for 7 with two homers. Logically, the trade rumor makes some sense for the Nationals. Nick Johnson is an impending free agent, so it’d be nice to have some depth at first base in a barren farm system. Dopirak took a step backward in high A ball last year, hitting .235/.289/.381 in 507 ABs. He’s 22 years old. Sing is 25 and was left unprotected in the Rule 5 draft this year after hitting .276/.404/.538 in Double A.
In Soriano, the Cubs would be adding their fourth second baseman. Soriano has a career line of .280/.320/.500 for New York and Texas. He’s 28 and will be a free agent after 2006.