Trade Rumor Roundup: 8 Days Left
To begin with, this just isn’t true. With the Kearns deal and probably Soriano trade, the 2006 deadline just can’t be classified as a dud. That honor belongs to 2005 for sure. The trading action never matches the buildup, but this year’s still a good one.
Read Ken Rosenthal’s latest. The White Sox are in the Soriano game, the Rangers have interest in Luis Gonzalez, the Braves could add another reliever, Julio Lugo still might become a Blue Jay, and the Brewers look like sellers. In my opinion, some Brewers besides Carlos Lee that could be unloaded: Geoff Jenkins, Corey Koskie, Brady Clark, and Dan Kolb. Koskie will need to recover quickly from his concussion, however.
Still hearing that the Cubs like Willy Taveras, which would definitely fit their m.o. of players who don’t get on base. Phil Rogers also mentions that Seattle’s Rafael Soriano is being asked about. It would be surprising to see the Mariners deal that kind of young talent.
Tons of great rumors coming from Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. He’s got a rundown of the Red Sox, all sorts of teams scouting Humberto Sanchez, and more.
Buster Olney mentioned in his blog today that the Astros are among various teams scouting Elmer Dessens. The Astros are also looking at Damaso Marte.
Unfounded rumor department: Could the Dodgers be after Aramis Ramirez? Ramirez has picked a fantastic time to heat up, and L.A. has some top shelf young talent…is there anywhere Julio Lugo could go besides Toronto? How about the Rockies?
Padres Acquire Scott Williamson
The Padres picked up 30 year-old reliever Scott Williamson from the Cubs today. In return the Cubs received some Class A pitchers: Fabian Jimenez Angulo and Joel Santo.
Santo was ranked 16th among Padres prospects coming into this season, while Angulo was not in the top 30.
Williamson is making $2MM this year. He was one of Jim Hendry’s Tommy John rehab projects. This season, Williamson has dealt with a problem similar to tennis elbow. Speculation is that the Padres acquired Williamson to set up a trade of Scott Linebrink for a third baseman. The deal marks Jim Hendry’s first with Kevin Towers.
Rumor Roundup
Another day, another rumor roundup. Let’s throw everything fresh into the mill.
The Orioles are thinking about taking on one of Philly’s huge outfielder contracts, for some reason. I guess this could help next year’s push for third place. Baltimore is one of baseball’s most baffling teams to me. Abreu rumors have been floating around the Orioles since at least November.
The Cubs and Yankees may have something cooking, with Scott Williamson the likely candidate to be dealt. If the reliever market is really so inflated, why don’t the Cubs trade Howry and Eyre?
The Pirates are offering up all sorts of non-difference makers, but Mike Gonzalez could actually get them something decent. The 28 year-old southpaw has a 2.27 ERA in 39 innings this season. Fantay leaguers should start thinking about Matt Capps as his successor.
Trade rumor All-Star Ken Rosenthal is getting into the game more lately, with a full plate of whisperings posted an hour ago. Jose Vidro could become a Giant, and the D’Backs would love to trade Shawn Green (of course).
Unfounded rumors: Billy Beane may be shopping Mark Ellis and Jason Windsor, with possible interest in Brian Roberts…the Angels could be after David Dellucci…teams are calling the Mets about Alay Soler…Dallas McPherson is definitely on the block…there’s a decent chance Jon Lieber ends up a Yankee…the Mets and Nats are still talking about Livan Hernandez.
Todd Walker To The Giants?
According to a source of Bleed Cubbie Blue, Todd Walker will be traded this month. The source indicated that the Giants are the likely suitor and that they would use him at first base.
First base has been a black hole for San Francisco between Lance Niekro, Mark Sweeney, and a few others. The average NL first baseman is hitting .284/.364/.500 this year, while the Giants have gotten .251/.310/.393 out of their first basemen. You need a Lyle Overbay just to be average while the Giants have essentially been suffering through the offensive equivalent of Yuniesky Betancourt at first.
At .290/.361/.392, Walker still makes for a pretty lousy first baseman. However, he is a career .437 slugger so maybe that’ll pick up a bit. The Giants are 2.5 games out in the NL West and 1.5 games out of the wild card. The team will probably lose Jason Schmidt, Barry Bonds, and Moises Alou this offseason, so the time is now. In it this deep, Brian Sabean needs to acquire Pat Burrell, Alfonso Soriano, or Carlos Lee if he wants to actually gain some ground in the next two months. Adding Walker would just be an aesthetic change.
What Could Greg Maddux Bring?
Add the Brewers to the list of teams that could be a fit for Greg Maddux. The shoulder injuries of Tomo Ohka and Ben Sheets seem to be rehabbing normally, so there may not be a vacancy in Milwaukee’s rotation. Still, it never hurts to have too much starting pitching.
Maddux, now 40 years old, is piling on the innings as usual this year. His critics will point to a trend in declining ERAs, but I don’t think it’s that simple. The Professor has continued to pitch like he has since 2003. The only real difference in 2006 is that his hit rate is up to 10.1 per nine. I know it doesn’t seem like it, but researchers have not found the pitcher to have a major influence on the fate of a batted ball. At the most, he might explain 30% of the variance. Luck is a far bigger determinant, and defense and ballpark are signficant too.
Maddux’s ability at this point is probably on par with that of Jeff Weaver. He’s a low 4 ERA type guy, a nice addition for a team in need of depth. He may be worth about 2-3 wins over replacement level from here on out, which may be the difference for a team like the Cardinals, Padres, Brewers, or Dodgers.
If Jim Hendry can find a destination that Maddux likes, pass along the remainder of his $9MM salary, and get a decent young hitter in return, he’s done his job. For some reason I keep thinking of the Brewers’ Corey Hart. He’s versatile and Major League ready, and the Cubs badly need outfield help for the future. The Dodgers’ Delwyn Young could be a possibility, while Ben Johnson could be available from the Padres. Johnson is currently on the DL with a shoulder strain, but he can still be dealt.
Back in April, it was clear Maddux’s value was at its highest point of the season. It wasn’t clear that the Cubs would be this awful, however.
Globe and Mail: Cubs To Move Barrett?
The Globe and Mail is Canada’s second-largest daily newspaper. This little tidbit from sportswriter Jeff Blair may have escaped your attention:
"My sources are telling me that the Blue Jays and Cubs could figure in a deal after the All-Star break. The Cubs are going to dump infielder Todd Walker and might also look at moving Michael Barrett — whose omission from the NL All-Star team, even though it owes much to the justifiable presence of pitcher Carlos Zambrano as the Cubs representative, is one of the injustices of the All-Star rosters. Surprising, considering his knockdown of A.J. Pierzynski was universally cheered in most clubhouses. Barrett has his fans in the Blue Jays front office."
This is the first mention I’ve heard of Barrett as a trade candidate. The 29 year-old is having a career-best season with the bat, hitting .305/.371/.502 in 213 ABs. The Cubs acquired Barrett from Oakland (for whom he never actually played) for Damian Miller in December of 2003. Barrett’s current deal leaves about $8 million due for 2006-07. According to Baseball Prospectus, that’s very similar to his true value based on projections. They have him worth $7.25 mil during that time period.
Given that the average NL catcher is hitting .266/.323/.403 this season, Barrett’s offense is quite an asset. However, it’s still an open question as to whether his defense cancels out most of the value. There aren’t a ton of great stats to evaluate a catcher’s work behind the plate. One area in which Barrett is clearly deficient is throwing out baserunners. His 20.6% success rate this year ranks 19th out of 22 qualified catchers. Last year he was at 23%, and in ’04 it was 24%. Barrett’s inability to throw out basestealers could mean as many as 60 outs that a Pudge Rodriguez would’ve recorded over the course of a season.
In a normal season Barrett will probably allow 5-10 passed balls, not terribly different from the average backstop. But those are really the only two metrics I have. Even John Dewan’s excellent Fielding Bible doesn’t tackle the issue of catcher defense. Let’s face it: any critique of game-calling skills would be entirely anecdotal or subjective. Players don’t openly criticize game-calling for the most part. And I don’t buy into the catcher ERA concept at all.
Barrett has played over 100 games at third base back in his Expo days. Considering the very weak free agent markets for third basemen and catchers, Barrett is an excellent pickup at an affordable price. There’s even the possibility that his hitting improves further if he’s removed from the rigors of catching. Some possible suitors include the Rockies, Dodgers, and Padres.
Now There’s A Trade Rumor
This is a hell of a trade rumor, and it’d be wrong not to pass it along. According to the blog Bleed Cubbie Blue:
"The Cubs are reportedly "in discussions" with the Yankees for a deal in which the principals would be Aramis Ramirez…and Alex Rodriguez…This deal, if it happens, might also include Jacque Jones, and other lesser players including prospects on both sides.
This same source told me that the White Sox are "close" to acquiring Andruw Jones from the Braves; the price would be Brian Anderson and young pitching. That deal would also make sense for both sides.
If the A-Rod to the Cubs deal happens, also expect Todd Walker to be moved (maybe to the Tigers), and at that point A-Rod moves back to SS, Ronny Cedeno to 2B, and the Cubs get a placeholder 3B until they can either sign one or trade for one in the offseason."
Just to reiterate, all of the above comes courtesy of Bleed Cubbie Blue. My own personal feeling is that the rumor did indeed originate from a legitimate source. Now let’s take a closer look.
As you may know, A-Rod’s contract deserves a webpage unto itself. As far as I can tell, the Yankees, or any other team, would owe him $16MM annually through 2010. Based on projections, that’s pretty close to fair value.
Aramis Ramirez was given the unfortunate ability to opt out of his current deal and become a free agent after this season. Even if 2006 is an off-year, I think he could top the three years, $33.5MM he’s owed in the deal. 1060west sums it up: Ramirez will probably test the market given the weak class at the position.
As for the other rumor – Jones would certainly be a sweet pickup for the White Sox. Brian Anderson has been terrible this year, but he was the organization’s best prospect entering the 2005 season according to Baseball America. The Sox have some decent if not spectacular pitching prospects, so this one isn’t out of the realm of possibility. Plus, there’s always Brandon McCarthy.
It will be interesting to see if this one picks up enough steam to catch the eye of the Chicago print media. They will undoubtedly dismiss it as an Internet rumor and not credit BCB as the source.
Lining Up For Shealy
It might be helpful to summarize all the Ryan Shealy suitors from the last few months, just so we can keep them straight. These are all from various newspapers.
The most recent one is that the Red Sox offered 23 year-old southpaw starter Abe Alvarez. Alvarez posted a 4.85 ERA but a solid 1.20 WHIP in Triple A last year. This season, he’s at 4.46 with a 1.36 WHIP. He’s had little opportunity to prove himself in Boston. Random bio: Alvarez likes to wear his hat crooked, is legally blind in one eye, and is known for pinpoint control. Actually, those first two facts aren’t so random – Alvarez wears his hat that way to balance the lighting for that eye. Sounds like a good kid who has overcome quite a bit of adversity, but the Rockies are looking for more.
Then there’s the Orioles. Baltimore has little in the way of first basemen waiting in the wings, but they balked at the Rockies’ request for Hayden Penn. It’s said the team would prefer to deal Javy Lopez, but they’ve been trying to do that for ages. The Rockies could use a decent catcher for their unlikely pennant run, and Lopez is hitting .282/.329/.437 this season at 35. That’s not particularly young for a backstop, and Lopez has only caught 12 games this season out of 56 played. He’d make an interesting addition to a lot of teams, but at $8.5MM this will probably just be a salary dump. The O’s will have to surrender a young player to get Shealy. Adam Loewen seems like too high a price, but I am not an expert in the Orioles’ farm system.
It’s been noted that the Blue Jays are interested, so a third AL East team is in the mix. The Jays already have Shea Hillenbrand and Eric Hinske clogging up the DH spot, so something would have to give before they acquired Shealy. Toronto doesn’t have much in the way of Triple A starters who could be swapped with the Rox.
The Cubs poked around in May with their first base vacancy (albeit two weeks later than they should have). Recent word is that Cubs offered reliever David Aardsma. Besides having the first name in the baseball encyclopedia, Aardsma has 20 solid Triple A innings to his credit. He hasn’t shown much in the Majors this season. The persistent walk problem remains. Assuming Shealy was healthy enough to play left field, the Cubs should step up their offer to at least Rich Hill.
One of the papers mentioned that the Indians inquired within the last year, but there’s no longer a fit. Ryan Garko is not setting the world afire at Buffalo, nor is Ryan Mulhern at Double A. Michael Aubrey has been on the DL with a knee injury since late May. So I’m thinking the Indians would still like to acquire Shealy, but maybe the Rockies were asking for too much.
Shealy is doing well in Colorado Springs (though of course in a hitters’ environment). He’s at .284/.357/.593 after 43 games.
Teams Still Interested In Kerry Wood
Just got word from a solid source, an insider who had previously indicated the Devil Rays’ interest in Ervin Santana back in December. This time, he’s got some info concerning oft-injured Cubs pitcher Kerry Wood.
Word is that despite Wood’s awful health record, Jim Hendry is shopping him and has received some interest. The Rangers would like to add Wood and may give up John Danks or Thomas Diamond to get him.
Danks, a 21 year-old southpaw, has made some progress in his second stint in Double A. His strikeout rate is way up and his control has improved, though his home run prevention has worsened. Danks is mentioned as a potential #2 starter one day by Baseball America, and should earn a promotion to Triple A this year if he can further improve upon his 4.41 ERA and 1.39 WHIP.
Diamond is a 23 year-old righty with a mid-90s fastball and a good changeup. He’s also done better in his second stint at Double A Frisco, managing a 4.15 ERA despite his 1.48 WHIP. Diamond has whiffed over 11 batters per nine innings, but his walks per nine has soared past 6. Diamond and Danks are ranked #2-3 in strikeouts in the Texas League, behind only Juan Gutierrez in the Astros’ system.
Wood would have to approve a trade to any club, and the Rangers seem more likely than another possible suitor: the Yankees. I’m told the Yanks are poking around as well, but don’t have details on any offers. Given that Wood’s $13.5MM option will most certainly be bought out for 2007, a trade to Texas would be contingent on a restructured agreement for 2007 with Wood.
Wood is no lock to be traded, and could turn into an effective, healthy pitcher if used in the bullpen. The Cubs are certainly open to the idea of retaining Wood for 2007 at a discounted price.
Fire Sale In Chicago?
It’s May 28th and the Cubs are now 13.5 games out of first place, 13 games under .500. The June schedule doesn’t include any pushover matchups (if there is such a thing for this club). It’s becoming time to shake things up. Which players are the most likely trade candidates?
How about Kerry Wood? Yes, he loves Chicago and has a no-trade clause. But there are a couple of teams in Texas who could use Wood as a backup option if they miss out on Roger Clemens.
The Rangers are clinging to first place right now and could get Adam Eaton back in July. Still, if the league figures out John Koronka the second time around, there may be a need for more starting pitching. Wood makes $11MM and has the huge injury history, but he’d make for an intriguing pickup if he improves over the next month. Seems to me that a Jason Botts would be plenty given how far Wood’s stock has fallen.
Houston would probably only express a mild interest in the event that Roger Clemens goes to the Yankees. They could part with Willy Taveras, and then Jim Hendry would have his low-OBP speedster atop the lineup for years to come.
I’ve seen Aramis Ramirez‘s name bandied about in the local papers. Ramirez’s current four-year deal includes a player void option after ’06, built in by agent Paul Kinzer in the event that he has a monster 2006 season. He’s off to a slow start, but does have an .848 OPS for May. Even an off-year, resulting in .270-30-90, would be more than enough to top three years and $33MM in the free market. That’s what’s left on his current deal. Ramirez only turns 28 this year. Still, he doesn’t sound like a man who wants to bail out. One could envision the Angels, Phillies, or Dodgers getting involved if the Cubs decide to shop Ramirez. He’s probably the team’s most marketable player, Mark Prior included.
Greg Maddux has a handshake agreement that he will not be traded. Still, he could have some interest in helping the Padres, Giants, Angels, or A’s make a pennant run. Unfortunately for the Cubs, Maddux’s hot streak came at a time when teams aren’t ready to make deals (April). Is Maddux hungry for pennant race baseball at all costs, or is he complacent the way Jamie Moyer was last summer? Funny how the Chicago press was calling for a contract extension for Maddux after his renaissance (one month of excellent pitching).
Juan Pierre seems very likely to be dealt. There’s just one little problem: his .231/.268/.286 line. The speedster hasn’t quite been Rondell White/Yadier Molina bad, but he’s still been awful. If Pierre can heat up for a month or so the Cubs might be able to get something useful in return. He would seem to fit in with the Angels or White Sox. How about Brian Anderson for Pierre? John Mabry better watch his back.
The Cubs will definitely send off Todd Walker at some point this summer. Countless teams would have interest in the affordable second base/DH candidate. Role players like Scott Williamson and John Mabry are trade candidates as well. Despite poor control this season, Williamson could be the most marketable of the three.
The Cubs have a host of additional undesirable to awful type contracts that probably could not be unloaded. This includes Jacque Jones, Glendon Rusch, and Neifi Perez. Some might include Bob Howry and Scott Eyre on this list despite their excellent starts. If the Cubs want to use 2007 to rebuild, the two relievers should be shopped.