Wood To Have Knee Surgery
Looks like Kerry Wood will have minor arthroscopic knee surgery. Chicago radio station The Score speculates that it could put him back another couple of weeks. Wood apparently threw this morning, so the need may have popped up today.
It seems that a June return to the Majors may be Wood’s new target.
Williamson Surfaces In Trade Talks
Mike Kiley of the Sun-Times notes that "Other teams are highly interested in Scott Williamson, as they have been all winter in trade talks with general manager Jim Hendry." In a separate article, Kiley quotes Jim Hendry saying that Matt Murton, Ronny Cedeno, and Rich Hill have been highly sought after as well.
Hill came up in talks for Barry Zito and a possible Miguel Tejada deal. As a 26 year-old, Hill is far past prospect status. Despite pitching college ball as late as 2002, he didn’t pitch above A ball until 2005. Ridiculously high strikeout totals have been negated by massive walk totals. Hill finally got the walks down to an acceptable level in the minors in 2005. If his success continues in Iowa, it’s likely he’s dealt before the All-Star break.
Cedeno was mentioned in talks for Brad Wilkerson, but that was before the Dodgers signed Rafael Furcal. Missing out on him has taken away one of the Cubs’ best trading chips, as they’re now forced to rely on Cedeno as their starting shortstop. Concern has been expressed over Cedeno’s hitting prior to 2005, but he may have turned a corner at age 22. He kept his contact rate near 90% and may be able to couple a .290 average with good defense. At this point, trading Cedeno makes very little sense.
Murton should be fairly expendable, as he may not project to hit for enough power to play left field regularly. He’s a 24 year-old with a sweet swing and a good eye. The average National League left fielder hit .272/.348/.457 last year, and PECOTA projects Murton at .278/.339/.411 for 2006. Sure, there’s room for growth, but the Cubs probably can’t wait around for it with below average production at a power position. You might think of him as Rondell White without the health issues. He’s better suited for a developing team like the Pirates or Royals.
Williamson does fit the win now mentality, and he’s probably the one Cubs reliever with the potential to dominate. I would keep him around as closer insurance and not worry about having too many setup men. At $2MM something like his 2002 season would be spectacular (2.92 ERA in 74 innings). I can’t see how the Cubs would get a more useful player in return unless perhaps it was to bolster their bench.
Prior’s Injury: Timeline of Events
As this Mark Prior shoulder injury thing continues to pick up steam, I thought it might make sense for me to lay out an estimated timeline for those not located in Chicago.
February 20th, 11am: Baseball Prospectus injury analyst Will Carroll mentions a tip he’s received claiming that Mark Prior is nursing shoulder problems within a spring training injury notebook.
February 20th, 11:05am: Major League GMs and other BP subscribers read Carroll’s report and nod knowingly. Cubdom reacts. Blogs were all over this one for the next few hours.
February 20th, afternoon: Carroll appears on Chicago sports talk station 670 The Score to talk about the rumor. Various members of Chicago print media listen to the radio show and first hear about the possible Prior injury. It is immediately branded an "Internet rumor" and is decided that the nerdy website from which it originated uses too many numbers.
February 20th, evening: Majority of said sportswriters deem the rumor unworthy of tomorrow’s column, and instead go back to writing cutting edge essays on why they hate Barry Bonds and Sammy Sosa.
February 21st, morning: Reporters in Mesa, Arizona, unwilling to give credence to the rumor but afraid to miss out on the scoop, quiz Prior and Dusty Baker on it. Prior does not acknowledge the rumor as true, but strangely neglects to simply say, "My shoulder is perfectly healthy."
February 21st, evening: Members of Chicago print media Google the name "Will Carroll" for tomorrow’s column. They learn that he is neither a doctor nor in Arizona, thereby debunking the rumor. They do not attempt to contact Carroll.
February 22nd, morning: Members of Chicago print media take baseless shots at Carroll yet take the Cubs to task for not being forthright about injuries within the same column. The aura of unprofessionalism surrounding all Internet media is maintained and print journalists keep their jobs.
Interesting side note: An advertisement for Will Carroll’s radio show appears in the Baseball Cube listing for Prior (it has for a while, if I recall correctly).
Cubs Interested In Juan Gonzalez
Now that it’s February 20th, the trade and signing rumors aren’t flowing as freely as they used to. Occasionally we have to go to great lengths to dig up mildly intriguing rumors. By great lengths I mean I had to bust out my high school Spanish textbook.
El Nuevo Dia is a Puerto Rican newspaper. Yesterday, Hiram Alberto Torraca had an exclusive interview with former MVP Juan Gonzalez. Gonzalez was last seen with the Indians, amassing a single at-bat before straining his hamstring. If you want to register and can read Spanish, you can view the article here. For the rest of you, allow me to do my best to give you the gist of it.
According to Gonzalez, the Cubs sent Carmelo Martinez to Puerto Rico to watch him swing the bat and run the bases. [Note – Martinez is the hitting coach for the Cubs’ rookie ball affiliate, as far as I can tell.] The Cubs have yet to make an offer to Gonzalez because they wanted to observe him first.
Gonzalez has been practicing daily and says that the Red Sox and White Sox have also shown interest in him. Juan Gone’s thoughts on playing in the National League for the first time in his career:
"If I have to go the National League, I will do it. With that there is no problem. I am in the best condition of my life."
According to Gonzalez, Indians GM Mark Shapiro had promised a minor league invite for 2006 but didn’t keep his word. On the subject of money, Gonzalez had this to say:
"At this time, money does not matter to me. What I want is to play and to achieve some goals. If no contract is offered I will be tranquil and happy because I arrived at where wanted and I achieved many things."
It’s anticipated that Gonzalez will see some time in the World Baseball Classic, although he has yet to be added officially to Puerto Rico’s 30 man roster.
Gonzalez was last relevant in baseball in 2003, when he hit .294/.329/.572 for the Rangers in 327 ABs. It seems that teams continue to be tantalized by Gonzalez’s power even as he enters his age 36 season with a recent record of poor health. Gonzalez has mashed lefties throughout his career, and would make an intriguing platoon partner for Jacque Jones to say the least.
Tejada Could Still Be Dealt By April
We thought the Miguel Tejada rumors had died down. He seemed fairly content, and said all the right things. However, Daily Herald columnist Barry Rozner has reignited the Miggy hot stove talk.
In Washington DC to cover the White Sox ceremony, Rozner ran into all sorts of DC media types. According to Rozner:
"They’re hearing the Orioles would love to move the unhappy Tejada out of Baltimore before the season even begins."
He adds that he expects Tejada to be moved before the season starts or right before the July trading deadline. As a refresher, MLBTradeRumors has reported that the Red Sox, Cubs, White Sox, and Astros have all been involved in talks for Tejada this offseason.
New Red Sox shortstop Alex Gonzalez can still be cut by March 15th, in which case Boston would owe him $500,000. The Cubs seem quite likely to give Ronny Cedeno his shot, though he’d probably be part of any package for Tejada.
The White Sox have previously offered Juan Uribe, Jose Contreras, and a prospect for Tejada, but the clubs could not agree on the last prospect. Recent word is that the team plans to wait until after the World Baseball Classic before trading Contreras. Houston has some top-notch pitching prospects in the fold, so look for them to re-enter the fray once the Clemens saga is resolved.
Cubs Sign Carlos Zambrano
According to Bruce Levine of ESPN Radio 1000, the Cubs have agreed to a one-year, $6.5MM contract with starter Carlos Zambrano. With the signing, the Cubs are done with their arbitration-eligible players.
Zambrano enters his age 25 season with a 3.26 career ERA and 1.27 WHIP. He has steadily improved his baserunners per inning, from 1.45 in his rookie season to 1.15 last year. While he’s already one of the best 15 pitchers in baseball, Zambrano could enter the truly elite if he’s able to further trim his walk rate.
Baseball Prospectus projects Zambrano to be worth $15,275,000 in 2006 and at least a $10MM pitcher annually through the end of the decade.
What’s Derrek Lee Worth?
Baseball Prospectus has a cool new stat called MORP. I know what you’re thinking – "What the hell is MORP? It sounds made up." Well, bear with me because it’s interesting stuff and it may be at least one point of data considered by Jim Hendry when drawing up Derrek Lee‘s next contract.
MORP stands for Market Value Over Replacement Player, and it’s an attempt to place a dollar value on a player’s total offensive and defensive production. Today I think it’d be cool to look at the projections for Derrek Lee for the next several years and try to determine a fair amount for his contract extension.
First, let’s start off by looking at Lee’s 2005. He hit .335/.418/.662 in 691 plate appearances, perhaps the best offensive performance in baseball. He also played plus defense at first base. The sum total of his efforts was 10.6 wins. That’s right – Lee was worth more than ten wins for the Cubs all by himself.
No one expects Lee to sustain that level of production as he enters his 30s. But Jim Hendry and Co. are going to need to project Lee’s production and place a dollar value on it for his contract offer. Now, Paul Konerko is a similarly aged first baseman, and he just received a five-year contract for $60MM.
Let’s look at a five-year deal for the first scenario. Over the next five seasons, Lee is projected to be worth 27 wins (combining offense and defense). If you factor in inflation and assign the proper value to each win he earns, Lee will be worth about $45MM over the next five seasons. We all know that Lee and his agent wouldn’t dream of accepting a contract averaging $9MM coming off the season he had. He’ll want Konerko money and then some, perhaps $65-75MM. That would put the Cubs out at least $20MM, so let’s get creative.
What about offering a three-year extension? Lee is projected to be worth $36,575,000 over the next three seasons. Significant decline shouldn’t set in until his age 33 season three years from now. How about an offer of $42MM for 2006-2008? The deal would replace his $8MM salary for 2006. Lee would average a healthy $14MM annually, and the Cubs would finish up before major decline sets in. Perhaps it’d be necessary to offer no-trade protection to seal the deal.
It’s expected that after the 2008 season, the 33 year-old Lee would start to slip measurably on both offense and defense. On the face of it, he’d still look like a .290-30-100 hitter and could command a massive free agent contract elsewhere. All of these projections and speculation come with the usual disclaimer: obviously no one has a crystal ball and Baseball Prospectus could be dead wrong on this stuff. No one can project five years into the future. But the three-year, $42MM proposal here seems like the ideal course of action for Cubs management.
Cubs Still Interested In Soriano?
Interesting column from Dave Van Dyck of the Chicago Tribune yesterday. The gist: a decent spring by Sammy Sosa for the Nationals could make Alfonso Soriano or Jose Vidro more expendable.
Van Dyck’s column assumes that the Nationals actually were counting on Soriano to fill an outfield spot, and that Sosa could take that spot instead. My take: Soriano is seriously not moving to the outfield. He’s said it over and over and my sources said the same before that. The column also assumes a healthy Jose Vidro. Despite some positive reports, I’m nowhere near convinced of that. I don’t think the outfield situation affects the second base situation for the Nats. The only variable is Vidro’s health. If he’s in great shape this spring, they have a surplus.
Both Soriano and Vidro’s contracts are terribly bloated. Can Soriano possibly provide $11MM worth of value in 2006? Highly unlikely. He’s been less than a four win player each season since joining Texas. According to Baseball Prospectus’s Marginal Value Above Replacement Player, Soriano will be worth around $7MM in this season.
The same system has Vidro worth about $3.5MM in ’06 and $2.5MM in ’07. Given that he’s owed $16MM over the next two seasons, Jim Bowden would have to kick in some major cash for it to make sense for Chicago.
The Cubs’ apparent infatuation with various overpaid second basemen doesn’t gel with the supposed new organizational philosophy. I thought the Cubs were shifting towards OBP and defense, two attributes not found in Soriano’s repertoire. The Cubs would be well served to put their efforts towards Julio Lugo, who is available and was a seven win shortstop in 2005. Even the most optimistic projection of Ronny Cedeno doesn’t call for that kind of production, and three or four extra wins could make all the difference.
The Mets seem content with their internal options for second base, so the Cubs probably are the only team interested in Soriano at this point.
Carlos Lee Trade Possibilities
There are all sorts of reasons to expect Carlos Lee to get traded sometime between now and the July deadline.
1. He’s an impending free agent making $8.5MM.
2. Doug Melvin is a savvy GM, and knows when to sell high (see Dan Kolb).
3. The Brewers have an able replacement left fielder in Corey Hart, who is projected by PECOTA to hit .272/.337/.475 in 2006. Lee is projected by the same system to hit .282/.347/.506. Accepting that difference in production would allow Melvin to net a top prospect or two.
4. Lee may be overrated in some circles because of his 114 RBIs. According to VORP (Value Over Replacement Player), Lee was worse offensively in 2005 than guys like Emil Brown and Raul Ibanez.
The Brewers will have plenty of trade partners for Lee. Phil Rogers mentions both the White Sox and Cubs by name. Here’s my own analysis of the possibilities.
Red Sox – If the Sox end up trading Manny for young players, Lee could fill the power void with 35 HR.
Blue Jays – Ricciardi dealt amicably with Melvin for Lyle Overbay, and the Jays don’t have much going on in LF. If they’re hovering near contention in July it makes a ton of sense.
White Sox – I don’t see it. They didn’t part on the best of terms, and the Sox have good outfield depth. I’m for any move that relegates Podsednik to the bench, but I don’t think reacquiring Lee would be the first choice.
Angels – It would involve shuffling outfielders around, but Lee would be a more reasonable addition than Manny. Maybe the Halos would consider dealing Dallas McPherson for him.
Braves – The Braves have definitely dealt for big-name sluggers in the past as opposed to acquiring them via free agency. J.D. Drew, Gary Sheffield, and Fred McGriff come to mind. They have the stacked minor league system to get it done.
Cubs – Both clubs might be contending in the Central division, so it makes a trade less likely. Back in January, though, Sun-Times writer Greg Couch proposed the Cubs try to entice the Brewers with both Felix Pie and Rich Hill.
Cardinals – They have the need, but the same division thing would have to prevent a trade.
My ranking of the most likely suitors: Blue Jays, Braves, Angels, Cubs. I’d like to see your thoughts in the comments.
Odds And Ends: Abreu, Manny
In very minor news, ESPN is reporting that the Cubs have signed righthanded pitcher Jason Simontacchi to a minor league deal. He was slightly less than terrible for Triple A Memphis last year and saw 15 ugly innings in the Majors. He’s not young, but did win 11 games for the Cards back in ’02.
Bill Conlin of the Philadelphia Daily News acknowledged the Abreu to the White Sox trade rumor, branding it an "Internet rumor." Fair enough; I could’ve sworn Howard Eskin started this one though. Regardless, I think we should start referring to rumors from the Philadelphia Daily News as simply "newspaper rumors." Why try to identify the source? Too much work.
According to Conlin, "officials from both teams deny any such talks." OK. But I promise that the White Sox have interest in Abreu. Whether they have the goods for it, I’m not sure. While Conlin indicates the White Sox would be settling by adding Gavin Floyd to the deal, my sources and most Phillies fans feel that Floyd as a throw-in is overpayment by the Phils.
If this newspaper rumor about Manny Ramirez is to be believed, the Red Sox have no concept of trading players for equal value. They might as well have asked for John Lackey and Vlad while they were at it.