Midseason Trade Candidates

The regular season is about to begin, and before you know it, fans of struggling clubs will be combing rosters for players their team can acquire from even worse clubs come July.  With apologies for being a wet blanket, things look particularly dire this year for the Astros, Twins, Marlins, Mets, and Cubs.  They comprise our very early list of potential midseason sellers, which will surely grow in the coming months.  What can other teams scavenge from them?

Astros

The Astros are in complete teardown mode.  Their highest-paid player is starter Bud Norris, at $3MM.  He's under team control through 2015 and will appeal to anyone looking for more than a rental.  He'll just have to show some consistency first.  Lucas Harrell, meanwhile, is under team control through 2017, but I still think GM Jeff Luhnow will listen.  Wesley Wright is a credible left-handed reliever.  Otherwise, we're down to newly-signed veterans like Carlos Pena, Jose Veras, and Erik Bedard.

Twins

With first baseman Justin Morneau entering a contract year, he's a good candidate to be dealt this summer.  The 2006 MVP is only 31 years old, and enters the season free of health concerns.  Josh Willingham may be a popular target, though he's signed through next season and the Twins weren't willing to deal him last summer.  Veterans such as Jamey Carroll and Ryan Doumit could draw some interest.  I'm not sure the Twins would be willing to trade from their rotation, but Kevin Correia and Mike Pelfrey are not long-term pieces.

Marlins

Teams will be clamoring for Giancarlo Stanton, but he's the only reason to see the Marlins right now and he's under team control through 2016.  Expect plenty of rumors.  The Marlins will get more for starter Ricky Nolasco if they assume some of the $11.5MM owed to him, not that I expect that.  Then we're mostly down to veteran pickups like Placido Polanco, Juan Pierre, Jeff Mathis, and Jon Rauch

Mets

Johan Santana's shoulder will cause him to start the season on the DL.  If he looks decent in May and June, and the Mets pick up most of his $31MM tab, and he waives his no-trade clause, maybe they can get a prospect back.  Other players in the last year of contracts or on one-year deals such as John Buck, Frank Francisco, and Brandon Lyon should be available.  Ike Davis and Jon Niese will draw interest, but seem like building blocks for the Mets.

Cubs

This might be the year the Cubs finally move Alfonso Soriano, who has two years and $36MM left on his deal, plus a full no-trade clause.  The Vernon Wells trade has to give the Cubs hope toward the idea of picking up less than half the tab.  Matt Garza is entering his contract year, and could be one of the better starters available if he's healthy and the Cubs prefer not to extend him.  The Cubs also have starters Scott Feldman and Scott Baker on one-year deals.  Closer Carlos Marmol, earning $9.8MM, will be difficult to unload given his control issues.  David DeJesus, who has a club option for 2014, could be a useful piece for someone.

Best hitter available: Justin Morneau

Best starting pitcher available: Matt Garza

Best reliever available: Rafael Betancourt

Offseason In Review: Chicago Cubs

The Cubs were heavily involved in free agency, adding four starting pitchers as well as relief and outfield depth.

Major League Signings

International Signings

  • Armando Rivero, P: $3.1MM.
  • Chang-Yong Lim, RP: $5MM.
  • Kyuji Fujikawa, RP: two years, $9.5MM. $5.5MM Club option for 2015. 

Notable Minor League Signings

Trades and Claims

Notable Losses

Needs Addressed

Last year the Cubs gave a total of 54 starts to Chris Volstad, Justin Germano, Chris Rusin, Brooks Raley, Jason Berken, Randy Wells, and Casey Coleman.  With the injury to Matt Garza and trades of Ryan Dempster and Paul Maholm, a rotation that seemed decent at the start of the season was exposed for its lack of depth.  By signing four starting pitchers this offseason — almost an entire rotation — the Cubs are better-equipped to handle injuries and potential trades.  President Theo Epstein and GM Jed Hoyer committed $73.5MM to Jackson, Villanueva, Baker, and Feldman, and did not have to surrender a draft pick or young player in the process.

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The Cubs ran parallel pursuits of my second and third-best free agent starters of the offseason, Jackson and Anibal Sanchez. From the team's point of view, both pitchers are young enough to help the next good Cubs team, and neither required surrendering their second round pick.  Ultimately the team landed Jackson, giving him the sixth-largest free agent contract of the offseason.  Before signing Jackson, they'd taken a run at a hurler who became my fourth-best available free agent, Dan Haren, then of the Angels.  Shipping walk-happy, $9.8MM closer Carlos Marmol to the Halos for Haren seemed like a big win for the Cubs, who balked over medical concerns.  If Haren does stay healthy and somewhat effective, the Cubs will be second-guessed for killing the trade.

Villanueva, 29, set a career-high last year with 125 1/3 big league innings for Toronto.  His 3.44 K/BB in 92 innings as a starter was promising, though he allowed 18 home runs in that span.  He'll be a useful swingman.  Feldman allowed 130 hits in 110 innings as a starter last year for Texas, though he seemed serviceable otherwise.  He pitches to contact generally, so the Cubs' infield defense will be put to the test.  Baker had Tommy John surgery in mid-April of last year, and I think the Cubs' expectations for the former Twin early in the season were low.  It's concerning that he's still experiencing elbow issues, however.  With Baker and Garza set to open the season on the DL, the Cubs will use Feldman, Villanueva, and Travis Wood from the outset.  If eventually all seven starters are healthy at once, that'll be a good problem to have.

Fujikawa landed a two-year deal to serve as Marmol's setup man, at least until the Cubs move Marmol or his contract expires.  I like the pickup.  Japanese relievers have had success in MLB, and Fujikawa was quite good with the Hanshin Tigers.  Camp was retained at a small salary, but the bullpen is still a weak spot for the Cubs.  International signing Armando Rivero could move quickly through the minors given his professional experience in Cuba, though Ben Badler of Baseball America says the pitcher has just "middle relief potential."  Like Fujikawa, Korean reliever Chang-Yong Lim is another successful NPB closer.  However, Lim is sidelined into 2014 due to Tommy John surgery.  The Cubs are clearly thinking short-term here, as the righty is 36.

The Cubs took an affordable platoon approach to right field, and it might work in terms of getting some pop out of the position.  Nate Schierholtz hit .270/.334/.440 against right-handers over the last three years, while Scott Hairston is at .263/.308/.464 against lefties.

The Cubs re-signed Stewart for $2MM, saving a little money versus tendering him a contract.  Stewart's wrist is finally better, but now he's nursing a quad injury.  His non-tender mostly closed the thread on the Cubs' December 2011 deal that sent Tyler Colvin and DJ LeMahieu to Colorado for Stewart and Casey Weathers.  At the time I sensed that Epstein and Hoyer moved Colvin without much regard because he wasn't one of their guys.  Elsewhere in free agency, the Cubs snagged Navarro on a big league deal to be their backup catcher, though he played only 24 games in the Majors last year.

Questions Remaining

With major question marks in the offense and bullpen, the Cubs don't seem to be making a big push to contend in 2014 despite their rotation expenditures.  They still seem much more likely to be sellers than buyers at the July trade deadline, stripping the team down again for another ugly finish.  Cubs fans seem fine with another punted season from the new front office, if it will bring long-term success.  I think fans will require a strong contender by 2015, after enduring an intentional two or three-year rebuilding project in a major market.

On a smaller level, the Cubs were unable to extend 2012 breakout starter Jeff Samardzija.  Samardzija is a Jim Hendry guy who worked out, but the new front office deserves credit for giving him a shot in the rotation.  In October I suggested a four-year, $27MM deal for Samardzija, similar to one signed by the Reds' Johnny Cueto in January 2011.  The Cubs did make a five-year offer, though the amount is unknown.  Another good year will likely send the price tag north of $50MM on a five-year deal.

Deal of Note

The Cubs' push for two of the better available starters this offseason was surprising.  They paid about market value for Jackson, which could net a profit if he improves.  The contract will make more sense to me if the Cubs aim to contend in 2014.  Otherwise, they won't get a lot out of the first half of the contract, when Jackson is closest to his prime.  A contract of this nature might have been a better move during the 2013-14 offseason, when the team will be presumably closer to winning.

Overview

Fourth place seems to be the best case scenario for the Cubs, who will probably remain more focused on acquiring young talent and could certainly finish last.  ESPN's Keith Law ranks their farm system fifth in baseball, while Baseball America had them 12th.  Epstein and Hoyer may sell off pieces one more time this summer, particularly Garza, Marmol, and Alfonso Soriano, and then it will be time to create a Major League winner.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Cubs Claim Guillermo Moscoso

The Cubs announced that they have claimed Guillermo Moscoso off of waivers from the Blue Jays.  Right-handed pitcher Arodys Vizcaino, who is recovering from Tommy John surgery, was placed on the 60-day disabled list to make room for Moscoso on the 40-man roster. 

The Blue Jays claimed Moscoso off of waivers just a week-and-a-half ago.  Last season with the Rockies, the 29-year-old posted a 6.12 ERA with 8.5 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9 in 50 innings.  He also started 21 games for the 2011 Athletics, posting a 3.38 ERA with 5.2 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 in 128 innings.

July 2nd Rumors: Aybar, Devers, Zapata, Jimenez

Kiley McDaniel of sbb.scout.com has a primer on the international signing period, which begins July 2nd every year.  That's when 16-year-olds from countries such as the Dominican Republic and Venezuela can be signed by Major League teams.  The latest from McDaniel:

  • There is no super elite prospect this year, writes McDaniel.  He notes that under the new collective bargaining agreement, most teams will have budgets in the $1.5-4MM range, as determined by the 2012 MLB standings.  The Astros could have north of $7MM to spend, however.  McDaniel notes that teams can trade for up to 50% of their assigned cap.
  • In another article, McDaniel looks at particular players in this July 2nd class.  Dominican shortstop Obispo Aybar could get a $1MM bonus, even though MLB is investigating his age and clubs believe he is 18 or 19.
  • Dominican third baseman Rafael Devers has been connected to the Red Sox, with a possible bonus over $1MM.
  • Right fielder Micker Zapata, born on the island of St. Thomas but trained in the Dominican in recent years, has drawn interest from the Phillies, Mariners, Twins, and Indians.  McDaniel notes that Zapata "speaks perfect English from his upbringing in St. Thomas."
  • Dominican right fielder Eloy Jimenez has shown similar tools to Zapata with plus speed, a right field arm, and big raw power to his pull side.  Jimenez has been rumored to be in line for a bonus that would likely top the class, ranging from $2.5MM-$3MM and is most often linked to the Astros.  
  • Gleyber Torres is a Venezuelan shortstop who doesn’t offer a ton of projection but has the smoothness and skills to put him into the top group of talents in this class.  The Cubs are said to like him and they could spend over $2MM on him. 
  • Fellow Venezuelan shortstop Yeltsin Gudino is rumored to be in line for over $1MM with the A's and Mariners mentioned most often. 
  • Dominican shortstop Franly Mallen is further along than Gudino and has caught the attention of a number of teams.  Rumor has it that a couple of clubs have already offered him a bonus in the high six figures. 
  • Dominican righties Mayky Perez and Marcos Diplan are the top two pitchers this year.  Perez is 6’5, 205 pounds and shows three average or better pitches with a physical, projectable frame.  Diplan, meanwhile, is skinny at 6’0, 160 pounds and boasts a 90-94 mph fastball with an above average breaking ball.

Zach Links contributed to this post.

NL Notes: Garland, Cook, Puig, Brewers, Soriano

Making his first start in a Rockies uniform tonight, recently-signed Jon Garland made such an impression with his groundball-inducing ways that the club tweeted his groundout to flyout ratio (2.5:1) through five innings. 

  • Garland has substantial incentives in his contract with the Rockies that could raise its total value to $3.1MM, explains Troy Renck of the Denver Post. In addition to his base $500k deal, which will fully vest if he stays on the 25-man roster for 45 days, Garland can earn up to $1.35MM for innings pitched (the pay starts at 105 IP and increases up to 195 IP) and up to $1.25MM for starts made (with the incentives kicking in at 20 starts and continuing to 32 starts). 
  • The Rockies are expected to consider the possibility of inking righty Aaron Cook, Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post tweeted earlier today. Cook, who was released earlier today by the Phillies, is (like Garland) known as a groundball artist.
  • In spite of being sent to Double-A today by the Dodgers, Yasiel Puig has been so impressive that he may enable the club to effectively buy even more young talent from other clubs, writes Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. As Rosenthal explains, if L.A. is able to replace either Carl Crawford or Andre Ethier with Puig, they could then offer to pay for much of the balance of the contracts of those expensive veterans to extract quality prospects from a trade partner. According to an unnamed rival executive, "It's smart actually — the only way to really build a farm system under the new rules. And you can only do it if you've got big dollars."
  • The Kyle Lohse signing was a substantial investment for the Brewers at three years and $33MM, but owner Mark Attanasio says that it will not prevent the club from "being able to make another move," reports Rosenthal. In particular, Attanasio expects to be in a position to re-sign first-baseman Corey Hart, who falls just outside the top 10 anticipated 2014 free agents in MLBTR's TIm Dierkes's 2014 Free Agent Power Rankings. While the Brewers sought to add to their rotation without losing a draft pick when they made an offer to Ryan Dempster before he joined the Red Sox for two years and $26.5MM, Attanasio explained that, "at the time we made the Dempster decision, we thought Kyle would go at a higher price." Finally, Rosenthal notes that Lohse can earn three separate paydays totalling an additional $1MM for reaching 190 innings pitched over each of the next three seasons.
  • Cubs outfielder Alfonso Soriano has been a popular topic of trade speculation, with the presumption being that Chicago would try to get whatever prospects and/or salary relief it could. Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times wonders, however, whether Soriano is now too valuable for the team to consider dealing. For his part, Soriano raves about the team's new front office and coaching staff, explaining how they changed the culture from one in which he felt singled out for the team's failings to one in which, "if we lost, we lost like a team; if we won, we won like a team."

Multiple Teams Showing Interest In Chris Young

MONDAY: The Blue Jays, Orioles, Twins, Indians, Cubs, Cardinals, Red Sox, Brewers and Mets all have scouts on hand for Young's start against the Astros today, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (Twitter links). However, as he's quick to note, that doesn't necessarily mean that each team is there to scout Young specifically.

For what it's worth, Young was terrific in his outing, scattering two hits, a walk and an unearned run over four innings to go along with a pair of strikeouts.

SUNDAY, 2:10pm: The Pirates are intrigued by Young, tweets the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review's Rob Biertempfel. However, Biertempfel wonders whether the Pirates can assure Young he'd be on roster the whole year and, if not, whether or not Young would be interested.

11:25am: The minor league deal that Chris Young signed with the Nationals last month contains an opt-out clause that he can exercise today. However, Young is scheduled to pitch in a Grapefruit League game tomorrow. Dan Kolko of MASNsports tweets that Young is planning on making that start tomorrow and then making a decision. Young says he has received interest from other teams, and it was reported on Friday that Young likely won't make the roster.

The Washington Post's Adam Kilgore adds that the Nationals hope to retain Young and view him as the clear favorite for a rotation spot if one of their starting five were to suffer an injury. Young is interested in staying in the organization in the event that he can't find a Major League job elsewhere.

The 33-year-old Young posted a 4.15 ERA, 6.3 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 in 115 innings for the Mets last season. However, teams in smaller ballparks will likely be wary of Young's alarming 58.2 percent fly-ball rate. Among pitchers with 100 innings or more, Young's fly-ball rate was far and away the highest in baseball, while his 22.3 percent ground-ball rate was far and away the lowest.

Edward Creech contributed to this post.

Quick Hits: Red Sox, Cubs, Cabrera

Red Sox principal owner John Henry has no intention of selling the team, he says in a wide-ranging interview with Steve Buckley of the Boston Herald. "I’ve not had one partner in 11 years suggest thinking about selling the Red Sox, even though they haven’t received dividends," he says. Henry also defends club president and CEO Larry Lucchino, saying Lucchino "revolutionized the game" with the building of Camden Yards in Baltimore, and adding that Lucchino's focus on revenue is critical to the Red Sox maintaining a high payroll. Henry also suggests that Lucchino will one day be enshrined in the Baseball Hall of Fame. Here are more notes from around the majors.

Central Notes: Verlander, Twins, Cardinals, Cubs

Justin Verlander says he won't engage in contract talks with the Tigers during the regular season, reports CBS Sports' Jon Heyman. "Once this last start comes around, I want to concentrate on the start of the season,'' Verlander says. There are no signs from the Tigers that an extension is imminent. Verlander isn't slated to become a free agent until after 2014, but Heyman suggests that Verlander might be less inclined to sign a long-term deal with one year to go before free agency. Here are more notes from the two Central divisions.

  • If the Twins were to allow manager Ron Gardenhire to leave, he'd be "unemployed for about 10 minutes," Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports argues. Gardenhire is in the last year of his contract, and the Twins lost 96 games last season and 99 in 2011.
  • GM John Mozeliak and the Cardinals are "primed for long-term success," Bernie Miklasz of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch says. The Cards can both strive to win in the present and count on winning in the future, thanks to a strong core and future payroll flexibility.
  • The Cubs could be on the lookout for a spare infielder, Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune reports. Manager Dale Sveum likes the recently-released Chone Figgins, saying Figgins "is one who would be interesting because he switch hits and plays the outfield." But don't count on the Cubs acquiring him, since Sveum would rather have a lefty hitter with power.

NL Central Notes: Figgins, Cedeno, Wainwright, Bucs

Some news from around the NL Central…

  • The Cubs haven't been in contact with Chone Figgins, ESPN Chicago's Jesse Rogers reports.  Figgins was released by the Marlins earlier this week and, as Rogers notes, is one of the few veteran options available if the Cubs want to bring in a third baseman.
  • Ronny Cedeno has cleared waivers after being released by the Cardinals three days ago, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports (via Twitter).
  • Chris Cwik of CBSSports.com analyzes the cost of an Adam Wainwright extension with the Cardinals and figures Wainwright will end up being paid between $21-$23.5MM per season.  Talks are ongoing between Wainwright and the Cards and the ace right-hander feels positive that an extension will be settled before Opening Day.  Wainwright is eligible for free agency after this season.
  • Jonathan Sanchez can opt out of his minor league deal with the Pirates on Sunday if he hasn't been added to the club's Major League roster, but the Bucs have until Tuesday to respond, MLB.com's Tom Singer reports.  Sanchez's one-year contract will guarantee him $1.375MM if he makes the roster.
  • Also from Singer, he opines that the Pirates' trade for John McDonald is the kind of veteran acquisition a team makes when it believes it will contend.  Otherwise, Singer wonders why Pittsburgh would add McDonald to an already-deep middle infield mix.
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