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Byrnes Extension Seems Unlikely

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It seems unlikely that the Diamondbacks will sign 31 year-old outfielder Eric Byrnes to a contract extension.  According to Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic, the team won’t even approach Juan Pierre’s five-year, $45MM deal.  And Juan Pierre isn’t good.

It’s just the business reality – the Diamondbacks have way too much outfield talent in their system to give Byrnes anything near what he’s worth.  He’d probably have to take something like two years, $20MM to remain in Arizona.  Earlier I said 4/32 might do it but now I’m thinking even that wouldn’t work.  I still like him as a possible White Sox next year.

Piecoro also mentioned that Josh Byrnes inquired on Bobby Abreu and Jermaine Dye, but is backing off because Carlos Gonzalez was requested.  Buster Olney proposes Shannon Stewart as a lower-cost alternative.

McAdam On Red Sox Trade Possibilities

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Yesterday, Sean McAdam of The Providence Journal posted an article discussing trade possibilities for the Red Sox.  Let’s discuss.

  • It seems that the Red Sox will add a bullpen arm despite the fine work of Manny Delcarmen.  Apparently they want someone with experience.  Eric Gagne doesn’t seem likely, nor does Brad Lidge.  Instead, Chad Qualls, Dan Wheeler, and maybe Salomon Torres or Scott Linebrink could be acquired.  The focus is said to be on the Houston relievers.  Wheeler seems like a solid buy-low option.  You can add Octavio Dotel to the radar as well.  And let’s throw Brian Fuentes into the mix.  UPDATE: Today, McAdam added Damaso Marte as a reliever the Red Sox like.  He says the price for Torres is "way too high" at present.  And according to the Boston Globe, Drayton McLane will not even consider moving Lidge.
  • The Sox would get involved on a top-flight starter like Roy Oswalt or Dontrelle Willis.  Calling Willis "top-flight" is a stretch, but that’s what McAdam said.  They also like Jon Garland, if they can pry him loose for a reasonable price.  Other available starters don’t seem markedly better than internal options.
  • The Royals would love to pawn Reggie Sanders off, but the Red Sox don’t have interest.  Instead, they could reacquire Kevin Millar or even go after Jermaine Dye.  Is Dye really a perfect fit, though?  Wouldn’t his acquisition make he and J.D. Drew part-time players?  That wouldn’t be good for the clubhouse.  UPDATE: McAdam says today that this playing time issue will indeed thwart a trade.  On the Millar front, the Boston Globe debunks that rumor on the basis that the Sox want someone who can play center field.
  • Speaking of people who can play center field, the Boston Herald mentions Randy Winn and Dave Roberts as possibilities.  The fans would love a Roberts acquisition, I imagine. 
  • The trade Mike Lowell/acquire Mark Teixeira scenario is highly unlikely.
  • The Boston Globe is saying that the Red Sox are "actively shopping" Wily Mo Pena.  I discussed Wily Mo in a post yesterday.  The Boston Herald today said that he might be the trading chip for a deal with Houston.

Update On Conor Jackson Showcase

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According to Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic, yesterday’s rumor about the Diamondbacks showcasing Conor Jackson in left field for the White Sox is false.  Piecoro quotes a sarcastic email between a couple of Sox and Diamondback execs:

"Let us know next time you’re showcasing someone for us."

The rumor seemed logical, as both teams have something the other needs and the GMs have made many deals before. 

Conor Jackson Showcased For White Sox?

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You may have noticed Conor Jackson oddly playing left field last night.  On the surface, the idea was just to get Jackson, Mark Reynolds, and Chad Tracy into the same lineup against Dave Bush.

However, Phil Rogers of the Chicago Tribune reports that the Diamondbacks’ real motivation was to showcase Jackson for the White Sox.  Left field is the only place the Sox could use him.

Rogers writes that while the D’Backs scouted Jose Contreras, they’re after Jon Garland or even John Danks.  Javier Vazquez’s name did not come up, but wouldn’t it be crazy to see the Chris Young trade reversed?  [As the always sharp commenters immediately noted, Vazquez has a no-trade clause allowing him to block trades to all nine AL/NL West teams.  But it would still be cool to see the trade reversed.]  Baseball America had some interesting thoughts on the impending Young/Justin Upton center field logjam today (the On The Brink section).

Rogers also adds that the D’Backs would trade right fielder Carlos Quentin.  Quentin is 10 for 22 since his return to Triple A Tucson.  Keep in mind that he was dealing with a small labrum tear in his left shoulder in the beginning of the season, which probably contributed to his poor play.

Either player would be a nice pickup for the Sox, who desperately need outfielders for 2008.  If you’re a PECOTA fan, here are the projections for ’08 in the AVG/OBP/SLG format:

Jackson: .305/.389/.512
Quentin: .288/.380/.491

Josh Byrnes and Kenny Williams work well together, and match up nicely for another deal this summer.

Rosenthal’s Latest: Lohse, Hunter, Contreras

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The latest trade and signing rumors from Ken Rosenthal:

  • Rosenthal believes Alex Rodriguez’s ability to play shortstop could increase the number of suitors.  Take a look at the free agents – there may not be a single viable option at short this winter.  Still, the number of suitors for Rodriguez is severely limited by his massive contract requirement.  Not too many clubs aside from the Yankees and Red Sox can get in on $240MM over eight years or whatever.  The lack of available, reasonably priced shortstops could compel the Braves and Orioles to aggressively shop Edgar Renteria and Miguel Tejada.
  • As a 29 year-old free agent starter with decent stuff, Scott Boras could sell Kyle Lohse as the next Gil Meche this winter.  Meche’s work in the season’s first three months would only aid the wishcasting.  I put up a little Lohse history here, writing that his deal will likely fall somewhere between Jason Marquis and Meche.  Other free agent starters who will be under 30 for the 2008 season: Carlos Zambrano, Jason Jennings, Joe Kennedy, and Byung-Hyun Kim.
  • Rosenthal believes the Rangers will bid on Torii Hunter this winter unless they acquire a proven center fielder this summer.  He mentions that Jon Daniels set his sights on Shane Victorino but the Phils would rather trade Michael Bourn.  Unless the Rangers get a proven guy they will still go after Hunter.
  • The Mariners scouted Jose Contreras and Matt Morris recently, but both were lousy.  I still think Jennings could sneak in there as the best available starter, but he too hasn’t pitched well in July.  Definitely seems like the Mariners will snag some kind of starter.
  • Rosenthal disputes Evan Grant’s report of the Brewers and Indians showing interest in Kenny Lofton.  The Brewers are getting Bill Hall back soon and the Indians have some outfielders on the road to recovery as well.  Perfect, this frees him up for the Cubs!
  • Rosenthal mentions the same teams I did for Kevin Millar, but sees an August deal as a possibility.  Waiting until August doesn’t seem to make sense for the Orioles, as things get trickier then.
  • The Padres could trade Scott Linebrink in order to make payroll room for a starter.  Or they could just sign Brian Lawrence.  I discussed some other options for the Friars here.

Slick-Fielding Shortstops Available

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If you’re looking for an all-glove type shortstop this summer, you have plenty of options.

  • The Giants could move Omar Vizquel, but only if they feel that he can’t help them in ’08.  According to Tim Brown, he loves the city and would stay if they made an offer.  The Giants talked extension with him in March but his offensive performance this year may have changed their mind.  He has $1.8MM in salary left.
  • With Ryan Theriot performing OK this year and Ronny Cedeno tearing up Triple A, the Cubs may deem Cesar Izturis expendable.  Giving Cedeno the starting shortstop job to begin last year was questionable, but it might make some sense now.  Izturis makes another $1.8MM this year, plus probably another $300K to buy out his ’08 option.
  • Juan Uribe may no longer deserve the slick-fielding tag, but he’s been an awful hitter so I have to call him something.  Even his customary low OBP/decent SLG is slipping.  His salary situation is pretty much the same as crosstown counterpart Izturis.
  • Jack Wilson makes another $2.3MM this year, $6.5MM in ’08, $7.25MM in ’09, and a $600K buyout for ’10.  He has a limited no-trade clause allowing him to block trades to six clubs each year.  About a month ago, Tim Brown spoke to a baseball source who thought he’d draw interest.  Wilson is back to playing every day currently.

What team would want any of these guys?  The Red Sox would probably be the only contender in need of a shortstop, and they’re probably stuck with Julio Lugo.

All Eyes On Contreras

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Buster Olney says that Jose Contreras may be the best available starting pitcher at the moment, which speaks to how weak the market is.  Olney lists the Cubs, Braves, Marlins, Indians, and Phillies as teams on hand to watch his six inning, five run performance Sunday night in Baltimore.

To call Contreras the best available indicates that Javier Vazquez is off the market.  Contreras’s challengers still include Matt Morris, Dontrelle Willis, and Jason Jennings.  If the Pirates were to inexplicably consider trading Ian Snell, he’d easily jump to the forefront.  That he’s even available is a dubious rumor at this point.

As for Contreras, his junk might work over in the NL.  Maybe that’s why four of the five teams watching his start reside in that league.  Olney’s scout said he was working at 87-91, though he did touch 94 last night.

Contreras makes another $4MM this year, $10MM in ’08, and another $10MM in ’09.  That shouldn’t scare off too many clubs.  Maybe the Marlins.  With a 2-4% chance at making the playoffs this year the Marlins would be acquiring Contreras more for 2008-09.

White Sox Re-Sign Mark Buehrle

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The White Sox have signed Mark Buehrle to a four-year contract extension.  It’s the four-year, $56MM deal that’s been rumored for many days now.  Definitely well below market value.

Buehrle has no-trade protection for 2008.  He also has a window during 2009-10 where a trade bumps his salary to $15MM annually and adds extends through 2012 for the same salary.

The often pessimistic PECOTA projection system finds Buehrle similar to Jim Kaat but values him at only about $26MM for the life of his new extension.  PECOTA feels Buehrle’s hits allowed will spike and he’ll manage only 150-160 innings annually.  It’s hard for me to see how that’s the most likely scenario.  I see 200-220 inning seasons with an ERA around 3.80-4.00, and that’s easily worth $56MM. 

Anyway, which of the three remaining veteran Sox starters will be on the move this month?  Phil Rogers suggests Jon Garland.  Or do they sell high on Javier Vazquez?  Sell low on Jose Contreras?  Odds are Kenny Williams will do something unexpected.  He’s still talking about being in buyer’s mode at the moment.

Buehrle’s Counteroffer Rejected

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More Buehrle!  You know you love it.  According to Buster Olney, Mark Buehrle’s camp proposed an alternative to the full no-trade clause contract.  Buehrle’s side asked for the same four-year, $56MM deal, but with a $17MM player option for 2012 that would kick in in the event of a trade.  That’d put Buehrle’s deal on par with Roy Oswalt’s.  The White Sox rejected the counteroffer. Ken Rosenthal confirms the info. 

There must be something the Sox don’t like about Buehrle, or some secret rebuilding plan in the near future.  The fact remains that the team rejected a heavily discounted contract to retain their 28 year-old ace.  It’s damn near inexcusable to me, and I’m not even a Sox fan.

We’ve been down this road before – but it really looks like a trade is coming in the near future.  Phil Rogers mentioned Kenny Williams’s affinity for Jacoby Ellsbury of the Red Sox and Carlos Gomez of the Mets.  Gomez will be out for four to eight weeks with a fractured wrist bone, but that shouldn’t affect his trade value.  Don’t forget the Dodgers – they could really use some rotation certainty.  It’d probably cost them Matt Kemp.

Thanks to loyal reader Kramerica Industries for the tips.

Padres Failed Trade Talks: Dye, Pie

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Tom Krasovic of the San Diego Union-Tribune has a couple of blurbs about inquires trade inquiries made by Padres GM Kevin Towers.

The first says that Kenny Williams’s asking price for Jermaine Dye a few weeks ago was Khalil Greene and Scott Linebrink.  I’m surprised the White Sox would focus on Greene, as him game isn’t terribly different from Juan Uribe’s.  But the Padres don’t have anyone else to turn to at shortstop.  Greene doesn’t reach free agency until after the 2009 season.  Anyway, the Padres chose to go with Milton Bradley instead of Dye.

Additionally, the Padres asked the Cubs about Felix Pie.  Jim Hendry informed Towers that he’s untouchable.  Maybe no one is truly "untouchable," but what could the Padres realistically offer?  Jake Peavy or Chris Young seems silly, leaving the most valuable young Padres as Adrian Gonzalez, Kevin Kouzmanoff, Chase Headley, and maybe Cla Meredith.  There doesn’t seem to be a fit for the Cubs.  Maybe Towers was just inquiring to see if Hendry would sacrifice the future for a useful 2007 piece. 

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