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Reds Avoid Arbitration With Trevor Bauer

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The Reds have worked out a deal with right-hander Trevor Bauer, according to MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter). He’ll pitch for $17.5MM in 2020 rather than going to a third-straight hearing.

The MLBTR/Matt Swartz model projected a beefier raise than the $4.5MM that Bauer will ultimately receive. But as Matt explained recently in a detailed breakdown of Bauer’s case, the model’s predicted $5.6MM raise (to a $18.6MM salary) felt a bit lofty when examining specific recent comps.

It’s an important number, not just for Bauer and the Reds. As the above-linked post explains, this sets a new reference point for pitchers of this type — i.e., those that have thrown a lot of innings and perhaps even produced a big strikeout tally in their platform year, but with uninspiring results in the earned-run department.

Bauer had secured big victories in hearings with the Indians in each of the prior two offseasons. But he saw eye to eye with his new organization, which picked him up in a surprising trade in the summer of 2019.

This time around, Bauer was carrying a somewhat less enticing statistical record. He racked up the innings (213) and strikeouts (253), but ended the 2019 season with only a 4.48 ERA as well as a losing record (which does factor for arbitration).

Reds Have Shown Interest In Corey Seager

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The Reds came into the winter ripe for an upgrade at shortstop, but they haven’t done much at the position thus far. The club’s biggest move there has been picking up light-hitting veteran Freddy Galvis’ $5.5MM option. As things stand, Galvis is slated to enter 2020 as the Reds’ starter at short, though they have their sights set on a much more notable option. Cincinnati has “shown interest in” the Dodgers’ Corey Seager throughout the offseason, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic writes (subscription link).

There is no indication the Dodgers are about to trade Seager, nor is it clear what the Reds would be willing to give up for him. No doubt, though, he’d cost a significant amount in assets. Seager, who debuted in 2015, won NL Rookie of the Year honors the next season, has earned a pair of All-Star nods, and has established himself as one of the game’s most well-rounded shortstops. While the past two seasons were injury-truncated campaigns for Seager, the 25-year-old nonetheless put up 3.3 fWAR and hit .272/.335/.483 with 19 home runs across 541 plate appearances in 2019.

Any team acquiring Seager would be getting a player with two arbitration-eligible seasons left, not to mention someone who’s projected to rake in a more-than-reasonable $7.1MM in 2020. The Dodgers – despite a fairly quiet offseason so far – continue to have the makings of an elite team, so there’s no pressure on their part to give up Seager. That said, dealing Seager would bring back a valuable return that could help LA in another area, and it would free up short for super-prospect Gavin Lux or, in a less probable scenario, the Indians’ Francisco Lindor. The Dodgers have shown interest in Lindor, but if we’re to believe Indians brass, it’s unlikely he’ll change homes prior to the season.

Minor MLB Transactions: 1/9/20

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The latest minor league moves from around baseball….

  • The Reds signed southpaw Brooks Raley to a minor league deal with a Spring Training invitation, Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer reports (via Twitter).  After posting a 7.04 ERA over 38 1/3 innings for the Cubs in 2012-13 and then spending 2014 back in the minors, Raley headed for the Lotte Giants of the KBO League.  Raley posted a 4.13 ERA, 2.79 K/BB rate, and 7.5 K/9 over 910 2/3 innings in Korea, starting all but one of his 152 outings.  If the 31-year-old Raley can carry over some measure of that form from the KBO League, he’ll provide the Reds with some veteran rotation depth at the Triple-A level, putting him in line for another crack at the majors in the event of an injury to Cincinnati’s starting five.
  • The Orioles have outrighted right-hander Marcos Diplan to Triple-A Norfolk, the team announced.  Diplan cleared waivers after being designated for assignment last week to create roster space for the newly-signed Kohl Stewart.  Diplan has a 3.88 ERA, 9.1 K/9, and 1.85 K/BB rate over 540 2/3 career minor league innings, working mostly as a reliever (starting seven of 38 total appearances) in 2019, pitching for the Double-A affiliates of the Twins and Brewers.  It has been a busy transactional stretch for Diplan, who was claimed off Minnesota’s waiver wire by the Tigers in September, and then claimed again by the Orioles in December.

Latest NL Central Chatter

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It has been a fairly quiet winter for the Cardinals, who are looking to defend a triumphant return to the top of the NL Central heap. In the latest edition of the Best Podcast In Baseball (audio link), Derrick Goold and St. Louis Post-Dispatch colleague Ben Frederickson examine the question whether the organization can still plug a big new bat into its lineup. There’s ongoing contact with Marcell Ozuna and interest in Nolan Arenado, but it’s still largely unclear whether either player — or some alternative — will end up with the Redbirds in 2020.

More from the NL Central:

  • The Reds are surely still contemplating additions even after inking Shogo Akiyama and making other roster upgrades. But GM Nick Krall suggests the outfield won’t be the focal point, as John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer reports on Twitter. With Akiyama installed up the middle, the Reds now have loads of options for finishing their roster, including potentially moving existing outfielders in various scenarios. The team will adopt an “opportunistic” stance with regard to free agent outfielders, Krall says. Further improvement could happen, it seems, but only if a compelling value proposition arises.
  • There has been a lot of turnover for the Brewers this winter, though it seems fair to say the approach has been one of seeking incremental, cost-efficient improvement. Certainly, there hasn’t been a marquee addition. The organization may or may not have something bigger up its sleeve, but it likely isn’t done making moves. GM David Stearns told reporters yesterday he’d be “surprised” if he isn’t able to make further roster tweaks, as Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel (Twitter links). The top Milwaukee baseball decisionmaker also indicated that he thinks it likelier the team will make its next strike via trade than through a free agent market that has already been drained of many of its best assets.
  • The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney and Sahadev Sharma (subscription link) provide an update on the not-yet-updated Cubs roster. Perhaps unsurprisingly … well, there’s really not much new to report. The club remains disappointed in the level of demand they’ve found for top potential trade chips Kris Bryant and Willson Contreras, per the reporting duo, which says that rivals feel the Chicago org has placed “sky-high asking prices.” Internally, the front office simply does not and has not ever intended to move those high-grade players “for anything less than a massive haul.” Under the circumstances, it’s not surprising to see ongoing stasis. The trouble is that the Cubs roster — which is examined in full in the link — doesn’t appear especially likely to make strides without new additions.

Arbitration Breakdown: Trevor Bauer

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Over the coming days, I am discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong. 2020 projections are available right here.

Trevor Bauer’s arbitration cases have gone to a hearing two years in a row, and he has emerged victorious both times. However, his 2019 performance was weaker in several ways, and it remains to be seen how big a raise he can get over his $13MM salary from 2019 in his last year before reaching free agency.

My model does see him getting a sizable $5.6MM raise, mainly due to his career-high 213 innings and 253 strikeouts. After putting up a 2.21 ERA in 2018, Bauer regressed back to a 4.48 ERA in 2019 and actually had a losing record of 11-13 for the first time in four years. This was not merely bad luck either. His FIP worsened by nearly two runs as well, going from 2.44 to 4.34. Of course, with a very low HR/FB in 2018, his FIP benefited. But SIERA adjusts for this and still saw nearly a one-run deterioration from 3.21 to 4.14 for Bauer. Bauer walked a career high 82 hitters while allowing 34 home runs. Despite his higher strikeout total, his K/9 fell slightly from 11.3 to 10.7 in 2019.

Arbitration panels do not use sabermetric stats like FIP or SIERA very frequently, so Bauer’s case will largely come down to his robust 213 innings versus his 4.48 ERA. Finding similar comparables is tricky, but several potential pitchers do emerge.

If we focus on pitchers with at least 180 innings pitched but ERA’s over 4.0 who were entering arbitration for the third or fourth time, we get four pitchers in recent years that seem comparable. Each got raises between $3.0 and $3.55MM, obviously less than Bauer’s $5.6 million projection. Of course, none struck out hitters at anywhere near the clip that Bauer did. Patrick Corbin in 2018 had the highest total strikeouts of the bunch with 178 in 189.2 innings and a 4.03 ERA to go along with a 14-13 record. He got a $3.55MM raise. With fewer innings and way fewer strikeouts, Corbin’s case is clearly weaker. Tanner Roark’s 9-15, 4.34 performance in 180.1 innings earned him a similar raise last year ($3.53MM), while Andrew Cashner’s 184.2 innings and 6-16, 4.34 performance only got him $3.1MM back in 2016. Hector Santiago got a $3.0MM boost in 2017 after going 13-10 with a 4.70 ERA in 182 innings. Each of these four pitchers had a weaker case than Bauer, so his floor is probably in the mid-3’s.

If we flip things to look for pitchers with similar strikeout totals, only three guys with similar service time had 225 strikeouts going into their third of fourth year of arbitration during the last five years. David Price got a $5.75MM raise five years ago after a 15-12, 3.26 campaign, in which he threw 248.1 innings and struck out 271 batters. That case is probably somewhat stale though, even if Price clearly had a better case than Bauer does now. More recently, Gerrit Cole got a $6.75MM raise last year and Jacob deGrom had a $9.6MM raise. The 1.70 ERA that deGrom posted en route to a Cy Young Award clearly makes him a poor comparable for Bauer. Even Cole’s 2.88 ERA is a run and a half better than Bauer’s 4.48. Cole went 15-5 in 200.1 innings and struck out 276. Cole’s $6.75MM raise is obviously a ceiling.

It seems unlikely that Bauer will fall below Patrick Corbin’s $3.55MM raise or best Cole’s $6.75MM raise, and should land somewhere in between. To get the $5.6MM the model projects, he may need to argue that Price’s $5.75MM raise from 2015 is too stale to be relevant, which puts him somewhere in the vague range between Corbin and Cole. I suspect Bauer may not get quite up to that point, although if he does take his case to a panel again, he could quite easily get there if the Reds aim too low. Bauer will certainly be an interesting reference point for pitchers with significant innings and strikeout totals who put up mediocre traditional statistics in future years, since it is obvious that few such cases currently exist.

Reds Designate Nick Martini

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The Reds have designated outfielder Nick Martini for assignment, MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon was among those to report on Twitter. His roster spot will go to just-signed outfielder Shogo Akiyama.

Martini was added in an offseason waiver claim. He might’ve been given a shot at carving out a reserve or platoon role in camp — and perhaps still could, if he clears waivers and depending upon the remaining course of the Reds’ offseason. But the addition of Akiyama, another southpaw swinging player who can handle center field, largely obviated the team’s need for Martini.

There’s a chance Martini will be claimed again. He has been an unstoppable on-base force at Triple-A in the past two seasons and had quite a nice showing in his 2018 debut with the Athletics. Martini doesn’t have much power and took a step back in limited opportunities last year. It’s important to note, too, that he has mostly been limited to facing right-handed pitching in the majors. But the general profile — a tough out with ample experience at all three outfield spots — holds some appeal.

Reds Announce Shogo Akiyama Signing

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The Reds announced today that they have signed a three-year deal with Japanese outfielder Shogo Akiyama. It’s a $21MM pact, the club added. Akiyama will earn successive salaries of $6MM, $7MM, and $8MM, according to Mark Sheldon of MLB.com (via Twitter).

This deal reportedly came together just before the calendar flipped, but details had remained murky. It turns out Akiyama is indeed headed to Cincinnati, becoming the organization’s first player from Japan. (Every MLB team has now employed at least one player from the Asian baseball giant.)

The 31-year-old Akiyama is a well-rounded performer who primarily played up the middle in Japan. He broke out in 2015 and has sustained it since, producing a cumulative .320/.398/.497 batting line with 94 home runs in that five-year span. Akiyama played in every single one of the Seibu Lions’ 143 games in each of those campaigns.

With this contract now in the books, the Reds have added two key pieces to an already talented slate of position players. Akiyama and Mike Moustakas both figure to see steady action in 2020 and beyond. It remains to be seen what that means for the rest of the roster — and the rest of the offseason. As we explored recently, the Reds now seem to have quite a few options for finishing things off over the next five weeks.

Front Office Notes: Yankees, Reds, Pirates

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The Yankees made the playoffs and won the AL East last year in what remains one of the greatest mysteries of 2019—after all, just how does any team, no matter how talented, win games in spite of nearly three dozen injured list placements? It seems that’s a question the New York front office would rather avoid moving forward, judging by their hire of Eric Cressey, a well known and “highly sought-after” performance coach (in the words of The Athletic’s Lindsey Adler).

Cressey, the proprietor of Cressey Sports Performance, has counted Max Scherzer and Corey Kluber as personal clients in recent years, and, according to Adler’s report, will help determine the direction of New York’s strength-and-conditioning program, along with taking a lead on personnel decisions. Interestingly, the Yankees will not require Cressey to divest himself of his personal clientele through CSR, not unlike the Reds allowed when they hired Driveline’s Kyle Boddy earlier this offseason.

More notes on behind-the-scenes men and women driving MLB…

  • Speaking of Boddy, the new Reds minor league pitching coordinator gave a talk at the American Baseball Coaches Association shedding light on Cincinnati’s organizational pitching philosophy, as covered by Baseball America’s JJ Cooper. Data, as would surprise almost no one, will be central to Boddy’s appraisal of both players and coaches. “Our coaches are graded on skills progression,” Boddy said. “This guy came in throwing 90. At the end of the year, he averages 93. What did you do to do that? This guy had a 30-grade slider based on our data scientists, he now has a 65-grade slider. Why did that happen?… We are holding coaches accountable, and we are promoting them and celebrating them based on the work that they do.” Boddy also shared that every session between pitching coaches and pitchers will be videotaped for later evaluation, with transcription software documenting conversations.
  • Former Astros international scouting director, special assistant and major league interpreter Oz Ocampo is joining the Pirates’ front office under new general manager Ben Cherington, in what the baseball man called a return to his “scouting roots” in a Twitter post relayed by Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle (link). In addition to his tenure with the Astros, Ocampo has also spent time working under Kim Ng at the MLB office.

Minor MLB Transactions: 1/4/20

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Baseball America has posted its traditional roundup of minor moves dating to the start of the offseason. We’ve already covered quite a few of the transactions over the past several weeks, but there are several additions on minor-league pacts that have to this point eluded detection …

  • The Braves have signed left-handed pitcher Chris Nunn to a minor-league deal that includes an invite to spring training, according to Robert Murray. Nunn, originally a 2012 draftee of the Padres, has yet to see Major League action since his professional debut, making stops in Independent leagues along the way. Now 28 years old, he’s played in the upper minors with the Astros and Dodgers organizations in the last two years. Last year, in 50 2/3 innings between Double-A and Triple-A, Nunn struck out 66 batters while walking 24. After posting a 1.33 ERA in Double-A, his numbers ballooned at the next level, though he largely maintained his bat-missing prowess.
  • The Padres signed outfielder Abraham Almonte. The 30-year-old switch-hitter saw action in 17 MLB games for the division-rival Diamonbacks in 2019. He was quite productive with the Snakes’ Triple-A affiliate in Reno last season, slashing .270/.382/.558. That dwarfs his prior MLB performance, though. In 1,138 plate appearances over the past six seasons, the center field-capable Almonte has compiled a .239/.298/.373 line (81 wRC+).
  • The Reds re-signed infielder Christian Colón and added catcher Francisco Peña to the organization. Colón, most known for his top five draft status and World Series heroics with the Royals, logged eight MLB plate appearances in Cincinnati last season. That rewarded a solid .300/.372/.443 line in extended action with Triple-A Louisville, although Colón was unsurprisingly bumped from the 40-man roster at season’s end. Peña tallied 202 uninspiring MLB plate appearances with the Royals, Orioles and Cardinals from 2014-18. He’s shown decent pop for a catcher at Triple-A, though; in parts of six seasons at the minors’ highest level, he has compiled a .259/.301/.469 line.
  • The Dodgers re-signed right-hander Justin De Fratus. The former Phillie has spent the last two seasons in the L.A. organization, but he hasn’t seen the majors since 2015. While all 191 of De Fratus’ MLB appearances have come out of the bullpen, he’s primarily been a starting pitcher in the minors in recent years, albeit with uninspiring results. The Dodgers also added hard-throwing lefty reliever Reymin Guduan. Guduan is still just 27 and had little trouble racking up strikeouts in the Astros’ organization, both in the high minors and at the MLB level. He’s always issued a few too many walks, though. Perhaps more concerning, Houston released Guduan in September after a team-imposed suspension for an undisclosed disciplinary issue.
  • The Rockies re-signed righty reliever Wes Parsons. The 27-year-old was claimed off waivers midseason from the Braves, but a dreadful MLB showing cost him his 40-man roster spot. Parsons logged a cumulative 5.45 ERA with more walks (29) than strikeouts (26) in 34.2 innings. Colorado also signed outfielder Michael Choice. The former top prospect, now 30, hasn’t logged significant MLB action since 2014. He’s spent the past two seasons in the Mexican League, but a strong 2019 effort there earned him another look in affiliated ball.
  • The Braves signed veteran infielder Pete Kozma. The longtime Cardinal has just a .215/.278/.291 career line (54 wRC+) in parts of seven MLB seasons. He hasn’t done much at the dish in the minors, either, but he’s a well-regarded defender around the infield.
  • The Angels signed former Cubs’ prospect Arismendy Alcántara. Alcántara hasn’t played at the highest level since 2017, and his career .189/.235/.315 line (49 wRC+) reflects the plate discipline woes that have done him in. He’s still just 28 years old, though, and his 2019 return to affiliated ball following a year in the Mexican League went well. The utilityman was productive across two minor-league levels in the Mets’ organization last season and showed better discipline than he has in his MLB career.
  • The Mets added former White Sox outfielder Ryan Cordell. Twice traded as a prospect, the 27-year-old fell flat in his first extended MLB look in 2019, with just a .221/.290/.355 line (73 wRC+). He’s capable of logging some time in center field, though, and he put together a decent minor-league resume between myriad injuries.
  • Finally, the Yankees brought aboard utilityman Rosell Herrera. Herrera logged fair MLB time with the Reds, Royals and Marlins the past two seasons. His resultant .225/.286/.316 slash (63 wRC+) won’t turn any heads, but Herrera has an 82nd percentile sprint speed, per Statcast, and has logged time at six different positions (short, second, third, and all three outfield spots) as a big leaguer.

Reds Sign Matt Davidson To Minors Contract

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The Reds have signed corner infielder Matt Davidson to a minor league contract, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reports (via Twitter).  Davidson will be invited to Cincinnati’s big league Spring Training camp.

Davidson didn’t see any MLB action last season, spending all of 2019 with the Rangers’ Triple-A affiliate and hitting .264/.339/.527 with 33 homers over 528 plate appearances.  These big numbers (posted amidst the most hitter-friendly season in Triple-A history, to be fair) could have inspired the Rangers to keep Davidson in his customary first base/third base role rather than further experiment with him on the mound, as Davidson pitched just one inning of relief work.  Davidson did indicate last February that his pitching exploits were likely to be more of the emergency mop-up variety than of any real attempt to make him a two-way player, following three innings of pitching with the White Sox in 2018.

Selected 35th overall by the Diamondbacks in the 2009 draft, Davidson was sent to the White Sox in a notable December 2013 deal that brought Addison Reed to the desert.  Davidson showed some promise in 31-game cameo with Arizona in 2013 and then hit .224/.291/.435 with 46 homers over 939 PA with Chicago in 2017-18, as his power potential didn’t make up for a lack of average and on-base skills.  There was a lot of swing-and-miss in Davidson’s time as a big leaguer, with 355 strikeouts over 1028 career PA.  Following the 2018 season, the White Sox opted to non-tender Davidson rather than pay him a projected $2.4MM through the arbitration process.

Turning 29 in March, Davidson projects to be a corner infield depth piece for Cincinnati on either their big league bench or at Triple-A.  The addition of a 26th roster spot gives Davidson a greater hope of winning a job in Spring Training, though with Eugenio Suarez and Joey Votto firmly locked into third base and first base duties for the Reds, Davidson doesn’t have much of a path to regular playing time.

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