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Eugenio Suarez

Mariners Acquire Jesse Winker, Eugenio Suarez From Reds

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The Mariners made a massive addition to their lineup, announcing the acquisition of star outfielder Jesse Winker and third baseman Eugenio Suárez from the Reds. Seattle will reportedly assume the entirety of the three years and $35MM remaining on Suárez’s contract. In return, they’re sending pitching prospect Brandon Williamson, outfielder Jake Fraley, right-hander Justin Dunn and a player to be named later to Cincinnati.

Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has been open about his hunt for offensive help throughout the winter. Seattle already signed reigning AL Cy Young winner Robbie Ray to a five-year contract, but they hadn’t previously done a whole lot to bolster the offense aside from a deal that brought in Adam Frazier from the Padres.

Winker got his due as a first-time All-Star last season, but he’s quietly been an excellent hitter for some time. He’s had a wRC+ of 127 or better (output at least 27 percentage points above the league average) in four of his five career seasons. The former supplemental first-rounder has been particularly impressive the past couple years. Going back to the start of the 2020 campaign, he owns a .292/.392/.552 line with 36 home runs over 668 plate appearances.

Last year, he tallied 485 trips to the dish and hit a personal-best .305/.394/.556 with a strong 10.9% walk rate and a 15.5% strikeout percentage that’s more than seven points lower than the league average. Winker rarely swings and misses or chases pitches outside the strike zone, and he’s capable of doing plenty of damage when he makes contact. He posted well above-average marks in terms of barrel rate, hard contact percentage and average exit velocity.

It’s easy to see the appeal for Seattle in adding that kind of offensive firepower to the lineup. Despite winning 90 games, the Mariners didn’t have an especially productive offense last year. Seattle hitters ranked just 21st in team wRC+ (excluding pitchers). They finished 22nd in total runs scored. Winker should be a massive boon to a unit that’ll need to improve if they’re to snap a 20-year playoff drought.

That said, Winker isn’t entirely without flaws. He’s limited to the corner outfield defensively, and he’s never rated favorably in the eyes of public metrics. Defensive Runs Saved has pegged him as 20 runs below average in 2,335 2/3 career innings in the corners (in addition to three runs below average in 138 innings as a center fielder). Statcast’s Outs Above Average has him at -21 plays as a big leaguer, including a -7 mark last season.

The left-handed hitting Winker also has some of the league’s most notable platoon splits. He’s been downright elite in his career against right-handed pitching (.313/.405/.556), but his numbers without the platoon advantage (.188/.305/.295) have been unimpressive. Winker’s probably not a strict platoon player — he does at least draw a boatload of walks against southpaws — but his impact has been concentrated to feasting on righties.

Perhaps of more concern than any aspect of his talent, though, has been his lack of volume. Winker has gone on the injured list in every full season of his MLB career. Heading into last season, the 28-year-old had never tallied even 400 plate appearances in a big league campaign. He picked up a personal-high in playing time last year, but he ended the season on the IL after suffering an intercostal strain in mid-August (from which he unsuccessfully tried to return in September).

That all makes Winker a tricky player to value, but there’s little question he’ll improve Seattle’s overall offense. He’ll presumably step in as the M’s regular left fielder, joining an outfield that could feature Jarred Kelenic in center and Mitch Haniger in right. Former Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis is coming off another serious knee injury, and Dipoto told reporters (including Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times) he’s unlikely to be ready for the start of the season as they proceed with caution in his recovery. Former top prospect Taylor Trammell and utilityman Dylan Moore could be depth options behind the presumptive season-opening trio of Winker, Kelenic and Haniger. Julio Rodriguez, among the top handful of prospects in the game, mashed at Double-A at the end of last season.

Winker will probably be in the Pacific Northwest for at least the next two seasons. He’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $6.8MM salary via arbitration this year. He’ll be controllable via that process once more next winter before reaching free agency in advance of his age-30 season.

In order to entice the Reds to part with a player of Winker’s caliber, the M’s are taking on far more money than just his projected arbitration figures. Cincinnati signed Suárez to a $66MM extension in March 2018, which will pay him a bit more than $13MM annually for the next three seasons. (The deal also includes a $15MM club option for 2025). Initially, that looked to be a shrewd investment by the Cincinnati front office, as Suárez went on to earn down-ballot MVP support in each of the following two years. Yet after combining for a .277/.362/.550 line over that stretch, he’s struggled the past couple seasons.

Suárez hit .202/.312/.470 during the shortened 2020 campaign. That’s a ghastly batting average, but he offset it somewhat with a robust 13% walk rate and 15 homers in only 231 plate appearances. However, his issues at the plate mounted last year. His walk percentage dipped to a solid but no longer elite 9.8%, not sufficient to make up for an even lower .198 batting average. Suárez reached base at only a .286 clip — the sixth-lowest mark among the 135 players who totaled 500+ plate appearances. He still hit for power (31 homers), but the on-base issues and his inability to successfully acclimate to an ill-advised move from third base to shortstop kept his overall production in the realm of replacement level.

Clearly, the Mariners assumed Suárez’s deal as a means to acquire Winker. That said, it seems likely they’ll give him some opportunity to try and right the ship in his new environs. Seattle bought out longtime third baseman Kyle Seager at the end of the year. Abraham Toro looks like the in-house favorite for playing time at the hot corner, but Toro can bounce between the corners and second base as a bat-first utility option as well. Divish tweets that Suárez is likely to step in as the primary third baseman, at least to begin the year, with Toro deployed around the diamond as needed.

The acquisitions of Suárez and Winker will add around $20MM to the Mariners’ 2022 books. That puts this year’s estimated expenditures at $106MM, per Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. That’s well above last year’s season-opening $73MM mark but nowhere close to franchise-record payrolls that exceeded $150MM from 2017-18. Precisely how much remains in the coffers isn’t clear, although it seems they’re content with the position player group. Dipoto told reporters (including Daniel Kramer of MLB.com) the club was unlikely to make further moves on that side of the ball. Seattle had been linked to big-ticket free agents like Kris Bryant and Trevor Story this offseason, but Dipoto called their pursuits of free agent hitters “dead ends.”

The Winker acquisition marked another aggressive move for a win-now Mariners team, but it’s a continuation of payroll-cutting efforts for the Reds. Cincinnati traded away Tucker Barnhart and lost Wade Miley on waivers for little to no return in November. They’ve listened to trade offers on their top three starting pitchers, and they moved Sonny Gray to the Twins for pitching prospect Chase Petty over the weekend.

This afternoon’s swap is the most notable to date, as the Reds slice around $20MM in 2022 commitments off the books. Of arguably greater import, they find a way out of the future commitments to Suárez. Only Joey Votto ($25MM) and Mike Moutakas ($18MM) have guaranteed money on the Cincinnati books in 2023, and the payroll slate is completely clean by 2024. Reds brass has pushed back against the idea they’re orchestrating a full teardown, but the recent subtractions of Winker and Gray make it more difficult for what had been an 83-79 team to contend this season.

Against that backdrop, it wouldn’t be surprising to see further subtractions by Cincinnati. Luis Castillo and Tyler Mahle each have two more seasons of arbitration control, as Winker did. Both pitchers would bring back a haul if the Reds made them available, particularly with the free agent market essentially now bereft of mid-rotation options.

Even if the Reds have further moves on the horizon, however, the players they bring back should all factor into the mix in short order. Fraley and Dunn are immediate big leaguers, and Fraley seems likely to step right into the left field spot vacated by Winker’s departure. The left-handed hitter struggled in limited big league looks between 2019-20, but he showed reasonably well this past season.

Fraley picked up 265 plate appearances last year, hitting .210/.352/.369 with nine homers and ten steals. The batting average is obviously subpar, but the LSU product more than compensated with an elite 17.4% walk rate. Fraley’s extremely patient approach at the plate should make him a serviceable on-base option. He’s primarily been a left fielder in the big leagues, but he’s capable of covering center in a pinch. Fraley’s controllable through 2026 and isn’t on track to reach arbitration eligibility until 2024.

Dunn, meanwhile, is a former first-round pick who went to Seattle from the Mets in the Edwin Díaz/Robinson Canó trade. He’s made 25 starts over his three big league seasons, posting a 3.94 ERA in 102 2/3 innings. The 26-year-old’s peripherals don’t support that kind of run prevention; he’s benefitted from an unsustainable .205 opponents’ batting average on balls in play and has walked an untenable 15.5% of batters faced. Despite averaging a decent 93.8 MPH on his four-seam fastball last year, he only generated swinging strikes on 9.7% of his offerings (a bit below the 10.9% league mark for starters).

Like Fraley, Dunn is an affordable, MLB-ready piece though. He’s controllable through 2025 and won’t reach arbitration until next season. If the Reds do move one or both of Castillo and Mahle, Dunn could factor into the back of the rotation immediately. He might also be a candidate for a bullpen transfer — some prospect evaluators have long suggested he’d be a better fit in relief — where he could aid a Cincinnati bullpen that was among the league’s worst.

Fraley and Dunn are the more well-known parts of the return, but Williamson is quite likely the player the Reds value most of the trio. A second-round pick out of TCU in 2019, the southpaw has impressed evaluators since getting into pro ball. Baseball America ranked him as the game’s #83 overall prospect this winter (fifth in the Seattle system), noting that the 6’6″ lefty can run his fastball into the mid-90s and has a potential 70-grade curveball on the 20-80 scouting scale.

BA writes that the 23-year-old could develop into a #3/4 starter. FanGraphs slotted Williamson 61st on their recent Top 100 list, opining that control issues could limit his ability to work deep into games consistently but praising his repertoire and suggesting he could be “dominant” for five-six innings per start. Williamson pitched his way to Double-A last year, working 67 1/3 innings of 3.48 ERA ball with an excellent 33% strikeout rate and a fine 8.1% walk percentage. He seems likely to get a big league look at some point this season and may eventually work alongside college teammate Nick Lodolo in the Reds’ rotations of the future.

The Reds also pick up a player to be named later who is reportedly a notable part of the return. Moreover, general manager Nick Krall told reporters (including Mark Sheldon of MLB.com) they plan to reinvest some of the money they saved in free agency. Cincinnati fans may roll their eyes at their assertion, given the club’s cost-cutting efforts to date, but Krall reasserted that this was not going to be a multi-year teardown.

The deal offers a major shakeup to both organizations. The M’s continue to push forward in an effort to hang with the Astros (and perhaps the Angels) at the top of the AL West. The Reds’ hopes of contending were dealt another blow, but the front office continues to maintain they’re not punting on the 2022 campaign. Whether Cincinnati’s future moves back up that assertion remains to be seen, but there’ll be no shortage of demand if they turn their attention to trading away either Castillo or Mahle.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the Mariners were acquiring Winker. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reported the Mariners were acquiring Suárez and that the Reds were acquiring Fraley, Williamson and Dunn. Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported that Seattle was taking on the entirety of Suárez’s contract. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reported the Reds were acquiring a player to be named later who “enhances” the quality of their return.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

The Reds Have A Eugenio Suarez Problem

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Reds GM Nick Krall kicked off the offseason by stating that “going into 2022, we must align our payroll to our resources and continue focusing on scouting and developing young talent from within our system.”  While subsequent reports have indicated that the Reds aren’t entirely tearing things down, the team has already parted ways with such veterans as Wade Miley and Tucker Barnhart, and combined with last winter’s trade of Raisel Iglesias to the Angels, that marks three notable players given away for virtually nothing in salary-dump fashion.

Much to the dismay of Cincinnati fans, the gradual increase in spending that followed six losing seasons from 2014-19 now appears to be over.  That rebuild resulted in winning records in both 2020 and 2021, but only a two-game appearance (without a run scored) in the expanded 2020 postseason to show for the Reds’ efforts.  It is safe to say that the pandemic is in large part to blame for ownership’s apparent decision to limit spending, and yet it also can’t be ignored that some of the higher-paid members of the Reds roster have underachieved — a critical setback for any mid-market team.

Case in point, Eugenio Suarez.

The third baseman’s seven-year, $66MM extension in March 2018 was one of the early signposts that the Reds were getting ready to open the pocketbook and start building the core of their next contender.  The extension covered Suarez’s three remaining arbitration years and up to five of his free agent years (Cincinnati has a $15MM club option on his services for 2025, with a $2MM buyout).

Suarez earned the extension after posting some solid offensive and defensive numbers over his first three seasons in the Queen City, and the Reds’ decision to lock him up looked even wiser considering how Suarez performed in 2018-19.  Over his age 26-27 seasons, Suarez kicked up his production to another level, hitting .277/.362/.550 with 83 home runs over 1268 plate appearances, good for a 132 wRC+ and a 133 OPS+.  Suarez received down-ballot MVP attention in both seasons, made the All-Star Game in 2018, and cracked 49 homers in 2019 to tie the second-highest single-season mark in Reds franchise history.

It certainly seemed as if Suarez was set to be one of the cornerstones of a now-loaded Reds lineup that added the likes of Nick Castellanos and Mike Moustakas in the 2019-20 offseason.  However, Suarez simply hasn’t been the same since, and there are some unwelcome signs that 2018 and 2019 may represent his peak.

Some red flags even emerged during that 49-homer season.  Suarez’s .351 xwOBA was well below his .381 wOBA, and his strikeout rate ballooned to 28.5%, after Suarez struck out at only a 23.8% rate over his first five MLB seasons.  As per Statcast, 2019 also marked the lowest line drive (24%) and grounder (36%) rates of Suarez’s career, as he sustained the big increase in his fly-ball rate that began in 2018.  Statcast’s “Expected Home Runs” data only covers the last three seasons, so while Suarez’s 2018 numbers can’t be analyzed, the xHR metric indicates that Suarez “should” have hit only 39.1 homers in 2019.

The other glaring trend was Suarez’s evolution into being a dead pull hitter.  Since the start of the 2019 season, the right-handed hitting Suarez has hit the ball to left field 50.5% of the time, the fourth-highest pull rate of any qualified hitter in baseball.  While teams increased their shift usage against Suarez in 2019, it didn’t hamper his offense too much thanks to that sky-high 29.5% homer rate.  In fact, Suarez had a whopping .423 wOBA against the shift in 2019.

The shifts kept coming, however, with teams shifting against Suarez 69.6% of the time in 2020 and 55.2% of the time in 2021.  With Suarez’s fly balls leaving the yard at a more moderate rate and his grounders now getting gobbled by opposing defenses, Suarez had only a .221 BABIP in 2020-21, contributing to that big dip in his offensive numbers.

Suarez followed up his big 2019 with almost exactly average (100 OPS+, 101 wRC+) production in 2020, as he batted .202/.312/.470 with 15 homers in 231 PA.  After only a .504 OPS over his first 82 PA, Suarez had a .928 OPS in his last 149 trips to the plate, so the thinking was that Suarez might have just had a slow start.  The third baseman also underwent surgery to remove some loose cartilage from his right shoulder in January 2020, though Suarez was expected to have been ready to go by sometime in April if the season had started on time.

That shoulder surgery stands out as an obvious demarcation line between Suarez’s peak production and his decline over the last two years.  However, given the statistical question marks that began even in 2019, injuries can’t be considered the root cause for Suarez’s struggles.  As his rough 2021 season played out, all of the warning signs that stood out in 2019-20 snowballed, resulting in what was essentially a replacement-level season.  Baseball Reference gave Suarez a subpar -0.7 bWAR, while Fangraphs’ calculations were only a little more generous, calculating Suarez at 0.6 fWAR.

Suarez batted .198/.286/.428 over 574 plate appearances, hitting 31 home runs but contributing only an 80 OPS+/85 wRC+.  His 9.8% walk rate was his worst since the 2016 season, and he had only a .301 wOBA against the shift.  Really, considering Suarez had only a .313 wOBA when teams weren’t shifting on him, his pull hitting was less of an issue than the fact that he wasn’t making much hard contact at all.  While Suarez still had one of the league’s better barrel rates, his 39.8% hard-hit ball rate was below the league average.

The strikeouts also just kept coming.  There has always been a lot of swing-and-miss in Suarez’s game, yet among qualified batters, only Javier Baez and Wil Myers have a higher strikeout rate than Suarez’s 29.1% figure since the start of the 2019 season.

If these problems at the plate weren’t bad enough, Suarez’s defense is now also a question mark, though that could be more due to the Reds’ roster construction.  With the team unable to land a shortstop in the 2020-21 offseason, the Reds planned to move Suarez to shortstop last year, thus moving Moustakas into the third base role and breakout rookie Jonathan India getting a shot at the everyday second base job.  Suarez began his career as a shortstop and lost 15 pounds last winter in preparation to move back into his old position, and yet the defensive problems that triggered his move to third base in the first place continued.

Pretty much all of Suarez’s time at shortstop came in the season’s first six weeks, as he struggled enough that Cincinnati quickly pivoted away from the experiment.  With Moustakas spending a big chunk of the season on the injured list, Suarez was able to move back to third base, with India enjoying a Rookie Of The Year campaign at second base and Kyle Farmer turning in a respectable performance as the regular shortstop.

Heading into 2022, it’s hard to know what to expect from Suarez.  If the NL adopts the designated hitter as part of the new collective bargaining agreement, it will alleviate some of the infield logjam that stemmed from the Moustakas signing, but Suarez getting time at DH doesn’t help matters if he still can’t hit.  It could be that some mental pressure might be lifted for Suarez if he doesn’t have to worry about a position switch, and yet defensive metrics have illustrated that Suarez has been an average third baseman at best for the last four years.

For a Reds team now looking to trim payroll, Suarez’s $11MM salary in each of the next three seasons (and the $2MM guaranteed via his club option) stands out as an expenditure that the club would probably prefer to not have on the books.  Finding a suitor for Suarez in the wake of his 2021 down year won’t be easy, as teams may now see Suarez only as a one-dimensional power bat who doesn’t make much contact, and whose production can be kept in check by the shift.

It’s worth noting that Suarez drew some trade interest last offseason, with the Nationals in particular exploring a deal, though Washington wasn’t open to parting with its top pitching prospects.  In hindsight, last winter may have been the Reds’ best opportunity to score a solid trade package in return for Suarez, as he still carried enough long-term value that Cincinnati wouldn’t have moved him in a salary dump.

The equation may have changed now, as the Reds might need to attach a prospect as a sweetener for another club to eat a bigger chunk of Suarez’s salary, or Krall might have to arrange some kind of a trade for another team’s unwanted contract.  The Reds could also conceivably try to package Suarez along with one of their better veteran trade chips (i.e. Luis Castillo, Tyler Mahle, Sonny Gray), but giving up one of those pitchers essentially just to get Suarez’s salary moved wouldn’t be an optimal way to maximize return on a top trade asset.

Needless to say, a return to form for Suarez would be an enormous boon for Cincinnati next year, as Suarez would then essentially be replacing Castellanos (who is still a free agent but unlikely to re-sign given his big asking price) as another big bat alongside India, Joey Votto, and Jesse Winker.  Since he doesn’t turn 31 until July, Suarez isn’t exactly over the hill, and players have rebounded from far worse declines by making changes to their swing or their approach at the plate.  That said, Suarez may need something drastic to counteract the underlying statistical trends of the last three seasons, or else an extension that once looked pretty team-friendly may now be something of an albatross for the Reds going forward.

Reds Activate Mike Moustakas From Injured List

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The Reds reinstated third baseman Mike Moustakas from the 60-day injured list this afternoon. He’s in the lineup tonight against the Pirates, hitting fifth and starting at third base. Utilityman Mike Freeman was optioned to Triple-A Louisville to clear an active roster spot. To create 40-man roster space, Cincinnati transferred reliever Michael Feliz from the 10-day to the 60-day injured list.

It’s a welcome time for Cincinnati to get Moustakas back, as they enter play today having closed the gap on the Padres to 3.5 games in the race for the National League’s final Wild Card spot. It’ll be Moustakas’ first game action in nearly three months, as the 32-year-old landed on the shelf with a right heel issue on May 20.  He embarked on a minor league rehab assignment a few weeks later but re-aggravated the injury in mid-June.

Before the injury, Moustakas was hitting at a decent but unspectacular level. He’s managed a .241/.337/.437 line over 104 plate appearances after putting up a .230/.331/.468 mark last season, his first in Cincinnati. The Reds signed Moustakas with hopes of moving the longtime third baseman over to second. With Jonathan India now in the majors and performing very well at the keystone, Moustakas has played exclusively in the corner infield in 2021.

That’ll continue to be the case, albeit with a twist relative to earlier in the season. The Reds opened the year with Moustakas at third and Eugenio Suárez at shortstop. Suárez struggled mightily in his move up the defensive spectrum, though, and kicked back over to third after Moustakas went down (with Kyle Farmer getting the bulk of playing time at short). The generally-productive Suárez has had a miserable season at the plate as well, and he’s now set to lose some playing time. Manager David Bell told reporters (including Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer) that the Reds will platoon the lefty-hitting Moustakas and right-handed Suárez, at least for the immediate future.

Suárez was one of the game’s top power threats between 2018-19, when he hit .277/.362/.550 and popped a combined 83 home runs. That lofty offensive output fell to league average last season, and he owns a .177/.260/.379 mark over 438 plate appearances this year. Suárez has hit another 22 homers, but he’s striking out at a career-worst 30.4% clip while walking in 8.9% of his trips to the plate, his lowest rate since 2016.

With the Reds in a playoff race, it makes sense to curtail Suárez’s workload a bit as he continues to struggle. He’s still under contract for $11MM per season from 2022-24 under the terms of the extension he signed in March 2018. It stands to reason he’ll get another extended look at some point, but installing Moustakas into the lineup against right-handed pitching should give the offense a boost in the short term.

Feliz’s transfer to the 60-day IL is a formality, as he has been out since June 8 with a right elbow sprain. He’s out for sixty days from the time of his original placement, so he’ll be eligible for activation whenever he’s ready to return. Feliz is currently rehabbing with Louisville, so he should be back in relatively short order. That’s also true of fellow bullpen mate Lucas Sims, who could be back with the big league club as soon as this weekend, according to Bell (via Nightengale).

Reds Activate Shogo Akiyama From Injured List, Shuffle Defensive Alignment

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The Reds announced Friday that they’ve reinstated outfielder Shogo Akiyama from the 10-day injured list and put Joey Votto on the injured list in his place. Votto is expected to be out three to four weeks after fracturing his thumb in yesterday’s game. Akiyama has yet to play in 2021 due to a hamstring injury.

Perhaps of more interest to Reds fans will be the new-look defensive alignment the team is rolling out in the wake of Votto’s injury and Akiyama’s return. They’ll open this weekend’s series against the Indians with Mike Moustakas sliding over to first base in Votto’s place, while Nick Senzel moves from center field to second base. Eugenio Suarez is back at third base today, with Kyle Farmer stepping in for him at shortstop. Tyler Naquin is in Senzel’s customary center field, and Akiyama is getting a day in left while Jesse Winker serves as the designated hitter.

This particular alignment obviously won’t be the norm in Votto’s absence, as the Reds won’t have the DH in most of the games they play over the next month. But Moustakas sliding over to first base and Senzel moving from a crowded outfield into the infield could be frequently featured tactics. Second baseman Jonathan India has ample experience at third base, of course, so it’s possible we’ll see a frequent infield of India, Suarez, Senzel and Moustakas. Meanwhile, the Reds will rotate Winker, Naquin, Nick Castellanos and Akiyama in the outfield. Presumably, with the first three all hitting so well to begin the year, they’ll be viewed as the starting trio.

That said, the club surely still has hope of a better performance for Akiyama in is second season at the MLB level. The former Seibu Lions star signed a three-year, $21MM deal with Cincinnati in the 2019-20 offseason, and while he got on base at a nice clip last year, he struggled to hit for much average or power. The now-33-year-old Akiyama batted .245/.357/.297 with six doubles, a triple, no home runs and seven steals (10 attempts) through his first 183 big league plate appearances.

NL Notes: Reds/Cardinals Brawl, Castellanos, Padres, Baez

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Outfielder Nick Castellanos was issued a two-game suspension for his part in Saturday’s brawl between the Reds and Cardinals, the league announced.  Castellanos was the only player suspended, and he is appealing his two-game ban.  Fines were issued to three players on each team — the Reds’ Castellanos, Jesse Winker and Eugenio Suarez, and the Cardinals’ Jordan Hicks, Yadier Molina, and Nolan Arenado.

The incident developed after Cards pitcher Jake Woodford hit Castellanos with a pitch during a fourth-inning at-bat.  Castellanos wasn’t pleased by the HBP, and picked up the ball and held it in Woodford’s direction as he went to first base.  Later in the inning, Castellanos scored from third on a wild pitch, and celebrated the run by standing over Woodford (who was covering home plate) and flexing.  This led to the benches clearing, and a lot of shoving and heated words between the two NL Central rivals.

More from the division….

  • The Padres hope to have Trent Grisham back in center field when they travel to play the Rangers on April 9, manager Jayce Tingler told Jim Duquette of MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (via Twitter).  Grisham has been out of action since suffering a hamstring strain during a Spring Training game on March 11, though he did play in some simulated games at the end of camp.  Austin Nola isn’t quite as far along in his rehab from a fractured left middle finger, but he could soon get some plate appearances at the Padres’ alternate training site.
  • The Cubs drafted Javier Baez with the ninth overall pick of the 2011 draft, a selection that has proven to be a winner even though Baez was one of many notable players taken in an unusually star-studded first round.  As Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune writes, the Cubs were set on Baez as their pick, though they were eyeing Jose Fernandez and C.J. Cron as Plan B options if Baez was selected by one of the eight teams picking in front of Chicago.  Tim Wilken, the Cubs’ director of amateur scouting at the time, said that the club would have taken Baez even if another star shortstop prospect in Francisco Lindor was still on the board — it ended up being a moot point, as Cleveland took Lindor with the eighth overall pick, just ahead of Baez and the Cubs at ninth.

Reds Roster Notes: Suarez, Senzel, Rotation

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After trying Eugenio Suarez at shortstop during Spring Training, the Reds seem to be moving forward with Suarez as their top choice at the position during the regular season.  “It’s looking like he’s going to end up being the everyday shortstop,” Reds general manager Nick Krall told reporters (including Charlie Goldsmith of the Cincinnati Enquirer).  “He has played well, he has moved really well at short.  He’s made all the plays in the field.  He’s done everything you need him to do.”

Suarez is no stranger to the position, having played 183 games as a shortstop during his seven Major League seasons.  However, only seven of those appearances have come since the start of the 2016 season, as Suarez settled in as the Reds’ everyday third baseman in large part because of his defensive struggles as a shortstop — Suarez posted a – 9.1 UZR/150 and -14 Defensive Runs Saved over 1463 2/3 innings as a shortstop in 2014-15.

Though Suarez has lost 15 pounds over the winter, it remains to be seen just how effective he’ll be with the glove at his new/old position, and it’s probably safe to assume the Reds are prepared to accept some level of defensive shortcomings in the hope of improving the infield as a whole.  With Suarez at third base, Cincinnati would have deployed Mike Moustakas at second base and then one of Kyle Farmer, Kyle Holder, Max Schrock, or Mike Freeman as shortstop, but the plan is now to use Moustakas at his old third base position and former fifth-overall pick Jonathan India might break into the big leagues as a second baseman.

No decisions have been formally made for the Reds prior to Opening Day, as the team is still waiting on a pair of notable health situations within its position-player mix.  Joey Votto is still recovering from COVID-19 and might need an IL stint to give him more time to fully ramp up, while Nick Senzel has missed the last two Spring Training games due to a mild groin strain.  Krall said Senzel is day-to-day with the injury.

The rotation has also been hit by the injury bug, as Sonny Gray and Michael Lorenzen will begin the season on the injured list.  Pitching coach Derek Johnson told the Cincinnati Enquirer’s Bobby Nightengale and other reporters that after Opening Day starter Luis Castillo, the Reds’ rotation will feature Tyler Mahle, Wade Miley, Jose De Leon, and Jeff Hoffman in a to-be-determined order (though Mahle will likely be the No. 2 starter).  The Reds are optimistic that neither Gray or Lorenzen will miss much time, and despite the presence of De Leon and Hoffman as extra starters, Johnson said the club isn’t planning to eventually adopt a six-man rotation.

Jonathan India And The Reds’ Grand Experiment

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Jonathan India’s impressive play is forcing the Reds (and Eugenio Suarez) to pivot. The 24-year-old infielder is looking more-and-more likely to make the roster, per Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer. It wasn’t the plan to break camp with India at the keystone, but the former No. 5 overall pick of the 2018 draft has forced the issue by hitting .333/.474/.633 this spring. To make room, the Reds will need to pull off the unorthodox move of shifting their third baseman up the defensive spectrum – again.

Last year it was free agent signee Mike Moustakas continuing an experiment begun in Milwaukee and sliding to second base from the hot corner – which was occupied by Suarez. At the benefit of Moustakas’ 109 wRC+ bat, they weathered the storm of passable, if uninspired defense at second (-3 DRS, 0.0 UZR, 0 OAA). Now, Moustakas may return to the hot corner.

Meanwhile, Suarez, now 15 pounds lighter, will slide to shortstop where he began his Major League career with the Tigers back in 2014. He hasn’t played more than a dozen innings up the middle since 2015, however. Since the Reds began trying out Suarez at shortstop just a few days ago, the experiment has quickly become more strategy than gimmick. Defensive metrics frowned upon Suarez’s glovework last he tried to captain the infield (-12 DRS, -10.4 UZR in 96 games in 2016), but in fairness, his bat has the potential to justify the sacrifice. Even in a down year, Suarez was four percent better than average at the plate in 2020. Of course, to make this experiment worthwhile, he’ll need to be closer to the 134 wRC+ hitter he was in 2018-19.

Beyond India’s impressive spring, the Reds may also be attempting to cover for a relative dearth of proven shortstops on the roster. If not Suarez, the top contenders are Kyle Farmer, a 30-year-old former catcher with 10 career starts at short, and Dee Strange-Gordon, 33 in April, who owns an unimpressive 80 wRC+ over 2,131 plate appearances dating back through 2016 and hasn’t started more than seven games at shortstop since 2013. Even then, when he was still in his athletic prime, defensive metrics weren’t kind to his glovework. As of now, it’s not even clear if the non-roster invitee will be added to the 40-man roster. Jose Garcia, 22, might be the long-term solution, but the consensus is that he overreached in 2020 – evidenced by a .194/.206/.194 line in 68 PA – and needs more seasoning in the minors.

If India indeed gets the nod at second, as seems likely, it could be argued that the Reds will have third basemen at five positions around the diamond: both India and likely centerfielder Nick Senzel were drafted as third basemen, Suarez has spent five consecutive seasons at third, Moustakas will be positioned at third, and right fielder Nicholas Castellanos spent the first four years of his career as a third baseman with the Tigers. Essentially, if a player on the Reds throws right-handed, it’s safe to assume he was, at some point, a third baseman. Given their experience in this niche, whether or not you’re a believer, it’s hard to argue that the Reds don’t know what they’re doing.

Whether the offense has enough gravity to overcome their defensive shortcomings will be fascinating to track throughout a full 162-game season. If the Reds pull it off, they’ll have identified an unlikely market advantage during an era known for innovation: the ability to transition third basemen up the defensive spectrum.

Reds Considering Using Eugenio Suarez At Shortstop

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Eugenio Suarez hasn’t gotten significant reps at shortstop since 2015, but the Reds may use him there this season. With Suarez having lost 15 pounds since last season, the team is considering him as an option at short, manager David Bell told Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer and other reporters Monday. He’ll start there for the team in its game against the Rockies on Tuesday.

Suarez has been the Reds’ primary third baseman since 2016, but the team has a capable hot corner replacement in Mike Moustakas, who has spent the majority of his career at the position. Moustakas was mostly a second baseman last season, and he’s penciled in as the Reds’ starter at the keystone this year. However, if Suarez shifts to short, it could open up second for Jonathan India, Nightengale notes. India, the fifth overall pick in the 2018 draft, hasn’t played above the Double-A level yet, though Bell said last week that the 24-year-old has a legitimate chance to make the Reds’ Opening Day roster.

When the offseason began, expectations were that the Reds would acquire a shortstop in free agency or via trade (Didi Gregorius, Marcus Semien, Andrelton Simmons and Ha-Seong Kim were all on the open market), as Freddy Galvis, Jose Garcia and Kyle Farmer combined for just 0.1 fWAR at the spot. Galvis has since left for the Orioles, while Garcia was clearly in over his head in his first major league action. Nevertheless, the Reds didn’t sign any shortstops to a big league deal or land a proven option in a trade, and it could now lead them to reinstall Suarez at the position this year.

Suarez has the bat for shortstop, having slashed .261/.342/.473 with 162 home runs in 3,433 plate appearances, but it’s up in the air whether the 29-year-old would perform well in the field. In 96 games at short in 2015, Suarez posted miserable marks with minus-12 Defensive Runs Saved and a minus-10.4 Ultimate Zone Rating.

Quick Hits: Suarez, Anibal, Chatwood, Choo

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The Reds have failed to add an established shortstop since last season ended, leaving them with Kyle Farmer and Jose Garcia as the leading in-house candidates to handle the position at the beginning of 2021. Third baseman Eugenio Suarez played a significant amount of short at the start of his career, so perhaps he’d be able to emerge as the Reds’ solution there now, though manager David Bell said the club is not considering the 29-year-old for the spot, Mark Sheldon of MLB.com relays. While the Reds “know” Suarez is cut out for the position, they have not had “any serious discussions about it yet,” per Bell. Putting Suarez at short could enable the Reds to move Mike Moustakas from second to third, where he has played for the majority of his career, or open up the keystone for Nick Senzel.

  • Free-agent right-hander Anibal Sanchez has rejected “multiple” major league offers since he held a showcase a month ago, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets. Sanchez is holding off on signing for the time being over concerns centering on COVID-19 and the protocols that accompany it, though he’s not opting out of the season as of now, per Heyman. The soon-to-be 37-year-old struggled last season as a member of the Nationals, with whom he logged a 6.62 ERA/5.03 SIERA in 53 innings.
  • Blue Jays free-agent pickup Tyler Chatwood revealed that he will work as a late-inning reliever in 2021, Shi Davidi of Sportsnet relays. Chatwood, who joined the Jays for a $3MM guarantee, has started in 143 of 197 career appearances, but the righty mostly had a rough time out of the Cubs’ rotation from 2018-20. Historically, though, there hasn’t much difference between Chatwood’s work in either role. The sample size is much larger as a starter, but he has a 4.38 ERA/.337 weighted on-base average allowed in that job versus a 4.53 ERA/.332 wOBA as a reliever.
  • Outfielder/designated hitter Shin-Soo Choo returned to his native Korea on Monday, signing a one-year, $2.4MM contract. But Choo indicated that he heard from up to eight major league teams that offered him more money than he’ll make in Korea, per Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram. In explaining why he chose to go to the Korea Baseball Organization, Choo said, “I want to play in Korea because I want to play in front of my parents and I want to give back to Korean fans.” As Wilson notes, the 38-year-old Choo’s parents have never seen him play pro ball in person. They’ll now get that opportunity.

Latest On Reds’ Trade Discussions

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The Reds and Nationals are known to have discussed a possible deal around third baseman Eugenio Suarez, and the failure to complete a deal seems to hinge on the Nats’ unwillingness to part with top pitching prospects Jackson Rutledge and Cade Cavalli, per MLB Insider Jon Heyman (via Twitter). Rutledge and Cavalli were the Nats’ top draft choices in the past two drafts. It’s not a surprise that Washington would hold on tight, as their system isn’t known for tremendous depth, and they traditionally value starting pitching. Besides, ace Max Scherzer will be a free agent after this season, and at some point, the Nats will need to graduate top pitching talent in order to maintain the standard they have set in the rotation. Any deal with the Nats would probably have to center on Carter Kieboom. If the Reds believe in Kieboom’s ability to play shortstop, he would make sense as a starting point for a deal.

The Reds seem more open to the idea of moving Mike Moustakas or Nicholas Castellanos, but neither has generated as much trade interest as Suarez, tweets Heyman. Despite an uninspired 104 wRC+ in 2020, Suarez remains the Reds’ most-compelling bat. A .214 BABIP was down by almost 100 points from his career average, and a shoulder injury might have slowed his production. His 29.0 percent strikeout rate is a touch high, but Suarez still boasts patience (13.0 percent walk rate) and power (.268 isolated power), as well as long-term control on a reasonable contract. The 29-year-old Suarez will make $10.79MM in 2021 before three years at $11.29MM and a $15MM club option in 2025. Relative to Moustakas (three years, $16MM AAV with club option) and Castellanos (three years, $15.3MM AAV with mutual option), Suarez’s deal looks like a bargain, and he’ll be just 33-years-old at the end of the 2024 season.

The most likely place for the Reds to add from outside the organization remains shortstop, as their 2021 starting shortstop doesn’t appear to be on the 40-man roster at present, writes the Athletic’s C. Trent Rosecrans. The organization clearly does not view Senzel as an option there, and Jose Garcia likely needs more the in the minors after being rushed into action in 2020. That could mean trading for a shortstop, but with so many options still available on the market – Marcus Semien, Andrelton Simmons, Freddy Galvis, Didi Gregorius – free agency remains their likeliest route to add an infielder.

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