- Left-hander Amir Garrett, whom the Reds optioned to Triple-A last Sunday, will rejoin the big league rotation during the upcoming week, manager Bryan Price said Sunday (Twitter link via C. Trent Rosecrans of the Cincinnati Enquirer). Garrett has thrown two scoreless innings since the Reds sent him down to Louisville. Before that, the rookie impressed at the major league level with five quality starts in six opportunities. Aside from a dreadful April 24 showing against the Brewers, who teed off on Garrett for nine earned runs on eight hits and four walks in 3 1/3 innings, the 25-year-old hasn’t lasted fewer than six frames or allowed more than two earned runs in any of his starts.
Reds Rumors
Roster Flexibility Aids Reds
- While things have been far from perfect in the Reds pitching staff, the current roster represents a major upgrade in at least one way, as Zach Buchanan of the Cincinnati Enquirer writes. Despite needing to rotate through some arms, the club has only needed to clear a 40-man spot on one occasion, owing to the presence of more optionable players.
NL Central Notes: Davis, Pirates, Shaw
The Reds announced this morning that right-hander Rookie Davis has been optioned to Triple-A Louisville. The 24-year-old Davis, acquired in the trade that sent Aroldis Chapman to the Yankees, had a nice season in Double-A last year and performed well in Spring Training, but he’s been hit hard through five starts in the Majors. Davis has worked a total of 19 innings, yielding 16 earned runs (7.58 ERA) on 29 hits and 13 walks with 15 strikeouts. A corresponding move hasn’t been announced, though Zach Buchanan of the Cincinnati Enquirer tweets that a Triple-A arm is likely to be recalled to join the rotation rather than turning to Robert Stephenson for a spot start.
A couple more notes from the NL Central…
- The Pirates have, incredibly, deployed 30 different lineups and 29 different defensive alignments (not including the starting pitcher) thus far in 2017, per Stephen J. Nesbitt of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. A large portion of the shuffles have been borne out of necessity, as Nesbitt also points out that the Bucs are currently carrying nine rookies on their roster. “There’s not always experienced guys to go get,” said manager Clint Hurdle of the team’s youthful composition. “With what’s happened to us, this wasn’t the plan coming in. This is an adapt, improvise and overcome situation.” While many Pirates fans have clamored for the team to pursue outside help, Hurdle suggested that improvements aren’t available at this time. “We don’t feel there have been better options outside,” said the manager.
- Nesbitt also writes that the Pirates now seem to have entirely scrapped their offseason outfield realignment, as Gregory Polanco has been shifted back to right field. The suspension of Starling Marte led Pittsburgh to move Andrew McCutchen back to center field, and Polanco’s shift back to right field is tied to the revolving door that the Bucs have had at that spot. “He’s done fine. Pretty average metrics in left,” said Hurdle of Polanco. “But we keep shuffling guys into right, and we’ve already got a guy who has played right pretty well.” Of course, Polanco’s move across the outfield could lead to similar issues in left field. Asked if he’ll keep Polanco in right field once Marte returns from his suspension, Hurdle said the team hasn’t yet made that decision.
- Brewers third baseman Travis Shaw and Red Sox right-hander Tyler Thornburg were swapped for one another this offseason but are in very different places as Milwaukee takes on Boston in interleague play, notes Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel. Shaw has settled in as the Brewers’ cleanup hitter, and his seven homers, 24 RBIs and .544 slugging percentage would all lead the Red Sox. Thornburg, meanwhile, has yet to pitch in a game for the Sox due to a shoulder impingement that has him on the disabled list. Thornburg expressed frustration about his injury and his subsequent inability to face his former team, while Shaw admitted that the games against his former team mean a bit more. “Everybody is a competitor,” Shaw told Haudricourt. “You want to kind of show your old team up.” The trade looks to be a good one for the Brewers at present, though a healthy Thornburg could certainly balance out the scales. The 28-year-old logged a 2.15 ERA and averaged better than 12 strikeouts per nine innings pitched with Milwaukee last year.
Dick Williams On Amir Garrett
- Though the Reds optioned lefty Amir Garrett recently, president of baseball operations Dick Williams says he expects to bring the youngster back soon (in an interview with MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM; audio link). Garrett, who just turned 25, has been rather solid in his six starts, providing 36 innings of 4.25 ERA ball. But the plan heading into the season was never to ride any of the team’s young arms too hard. “We’ve got a lot of young guys that we’re excited to see this year on the roster,” Williams explains. “And the idea was, ’We’re going to get you up, we’re going to get you opportunities. All of you are going to see opportunities in the big leagues, and all of you are going to be back in Triple-A at some point, just for sheer numbers and innings management.'” In Garrett’s case, some upcoming off-days presented an opportunity to slow his accumulation of innings; he has never previously gone past 144 2/3 frames. “Most importantly, it gives Amir the ability to be on pace to pitch into September, which is what we want these guys to learn how to do,” said Williams.
Reds Option Amir Garrett To Triple-A
- In a surprising development, the Reds announced Sunday that they’ve optioned left-hander Amir Garrett to Triple-A Louisville. Aside from one poor start on April 24, when the Brewers teed off on Garrett for nine earned runs on eight hits in 3 1/3 innings, the 25-year-old has pitched well enough to remain in the majors. The rookie surrendered two or fewer earned runs in his other six starts, all of which lasted at least six frames. All told, Garrett has recorded a 4.25 ERA, 7.0 K/9, 3.5 BB/9 and a 44.7 percent ground-ball rate in 36 innings. The Reds are entering a stretch in which they will only need four starters, which will give them an opportunity to manage Garrett’s workload, tweets Zach Buchanan of the Cincinnati Enquirer. Service time considerations may have also factored into this decision, as the Reds will only need to keep Garrett in the minors for about two weeks to control him through 2023 instead of 2022. For now, right-hander Barrett Astin is up from Triple-A to take Garrett’s place on the Reds’ roster.
Reds Spending On Team Infrastructure
- The Reds’ rebuild is examined by Tyler Kepner of the New York Times, who writes that as part of the process, Cincinnati has spent heavily to upgrade its scouting, analytics, sports science and medical departments. The Reds, who are the only team to never have a Japanese player on their roster, have also invested in a Pacific Rim scouting department.
Free Agent Stock Watch: Zack Cozart
Reds shortstop Zack Cozart has long been an interesting player, with outstanding glovework making him a regular at short despite an often-lagging bat. But he began to show signs of life at the plate in 2015, suggesting the possibility of more. Now, at 31 years of age — with free agency beckoning at season’s end — Cozart is playing like an All-Star.
Perhaps this surge would now be less surprising had it not been for a devastating knee injury that disrupted Cozart’s ’15 campaign after just 53 games. At that point, he was slashing .258/.310/.459 and had swatted nine home runs. Upon returning last year, Cozart fell back a bit in overall productivity, but still managed 16 long balls and produced a 91 wRC+ — good enough to make him a 2.5 fWAR player.
Cozart has opened the 2017 season on a hot streak. It’s still early — he has only taken 97 plate appearances — so it’s best to temper expectations. But perhaps there’s more to it than just noting the surge and cautioning on the sample size. He’s hitting a BABIP-aided .329 and delivering an excellent isolated slugging mark (.220) despite just one home run. That’s all promising enough. But Cozart is also walking at heretofore-unseen levels. He entered the year with just a 5.6% career walk rate, but has nearly tripled that (to 14.4%) in the early going, leaving him with a robust .423 on-base percentage .
As ever, it’s fair to wonder whether that apparent improvement can be sustained. Cozart is approaching, but hasn’t quite reached, the stabilization point for walk rate, and even then you’d have to maintain a healthy degree of skepticism and bear in mind his longer track record. But this is the third straight year that Cozart has shown growth in his ability to take free passes. And there are other signs of a real change that shouldn’t be ignored. Cozart’s swing percentage sits at just under forty percent, well shy of his 46.5% career mark. And he’s not just watching more strikes go by: Cozart has offered at pitches out of the zone just 22.7% of the time, a significant reduction from his 29.4% career average. When he does swing, Cozart is missing just 5.6% of the time; again, that’s a significant change (7.3% career SwStr%).
While his strikeout rate is also up a bit, that’s an easy sacrifice to make when these are the results. It would be silly to expect Cozart to continue walking with quite this frequency, but even a bump up to league average (8.8%) would represent a major change in his profile. That might support a league-average on-base percentage. Combine that with the fact that Cozart has posted above-average isolated slugging marks over the past three seasons, and you’re suddenly looking at a real offensive threat.
Let’s not forget: the real calling card here is defense. Cozart doesn’t get talked about as one of the game’s best fielders, but metrics suggest he is. We’re not looking at a small sample here, either. Since he began receiving regular playing time in 2012, Cozart has been an elite defender. While he has traditionally rated as merely an average baserunner, the glove is good enough that Cozart doesn’t have to hit all that much to be an asset.
So, the arrow is pointing up right now, though there’s obviously a long season ahead. Cozart did miss time last year with ongoing issues relating to his 2015 knee surgery; while it seems he’s healthy now, he’ll need to stay that way. And teams will be watching closely to see just what portion of Cozart’s improvements at the plate can be maintained throughout the course of a long season.
As we watch to see how things progress — gauging not only Cozart’s open-market value but also his trade value this summer — there are some markers to bear in mind. Come August, Cozart will reach 32 years of age — just as J.J. Hardy did back in 2014 before signing a three-year, $40MM extension with the Orioles that kept him from reaching the open market. Hardy was an even more extreme version of Cozart at the plate, and was a similarly excellent defender, so seems a highly relevant comp. Though Hardy had a clearer record of success to that point, though, he also hadn’t shown anything like Cozart’s current changes at the plate.
If you see Cozart as a slightly above-average hitter, whose power is sometimes offset by questionable on-base numbers and patches of streakiness, then you’re looking at something like the profile of Ian Desmond, who just landed $70MM over five years. True, Cozart is a middling baserunner, while Desmond is one of the game’s best. But the situation is flipped on defense, where Cozart’s high-level play at short outeighs Desmond’s versatility. But the best aspirational comp is perhaps Brandon Crawford, whose blend of solid plate discipline and pop with otherworldly defense has made him a star (and earned him a six-year, $75MM extension).
Of course, it’s far from clear that Cozart will be able to score anything approaching those kinds of years and dollars, particularly given his age and the still-unknown level of demand. But he’s beginning to make out an argument that he’s just as valuable a player as some of his better-known peers.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Minor MLB Transactions: 5/1/17
We’ll track the day’s minor moves here:
- The Mariners have acquired minor-league third baseman Seth Mejias-Brean from the Reds, per an announcement from Triple-A Louisville (via Twitter). It’s not yet known what Cincinnati will receive in return. Mejias-Brean is a 26-year-old who was taken in the eighth round of the 2012 draft out of the University of Arizona. At times, he has been considered one of the organization’s better prospects. But his star has faded in recent years as the early promise has not translated to the upper minors. Over 546 total plate appearances at Triple-A since the start of 2016, Mejias-Brean has slashed just .232/.293/.310 with six home runs.
Knocking Down The Door: Berrios, Leonard, Mahle, Moore, O’Hearn
The latest installment of “Knocking Down The Door” includes Eric Hosmer’s possible heir apparent, a pair of Double-A pitchers looking to make the jump to an MLB rotation, a dominant Triple-A starter who could be facing off against the Red Sox this weekend, and the lone player from the big December 2012 trade between the Rays and Royals who has yet to reach the big leagues.
Here’s a look at five Minor Leaguers who are currently “Knocking Down The Door” to the Major Leagues.
Jose Berrios, SP, Minnesota Twins (Triple-A Rochester)
With a current opening in the Twins’ rotation—Adalberto Mejia was optioned to Triple-A after his last start—it’s likely that a Triple-A pitcher will be called up later this week. One glance at Berrios’ stats (1.09 ERA, 33 IP, 18 H, 8 BB, 35 K) after his latest gem—he pitched two-hit ball over eight scoreless innings on Sunday—and he appears to be the obvious choice. But this might not be the “slam dunk” it appears to be.
The 22-year-old Berrios has been dominating Triple-A hitters since 2015. It just didn’t carry over to the big leagues during his rookie season (8.02 ERA in 14 starts), which is why the Twins will want to be extra cautious before calling him up again. If they feel that he’s made the proper adjustments that will allow him to succeed and remain on the MLB roster for good, there’s a good chance he’ll be pitch against the Red Sox this weekend.
Patrick Leonard, 3B/1B/OF, Tampa Bay Rays (Triple-A Durham)
The lack of production against left-handed pitching from platoon players Peter Bourjos, Daniel Robertson and Rickie Weeks and a nagging foot injury to Evan Longoria—he’s out of the lineup on Monday—could have the Rays on the lookout for some help in the near future. They could find it down in Triple-A where Leonard, a right-handed hitting third baseman who has also played first base and the corner outfield spots, is putting up huge numbers.
In the midst of a nine-game hitting streak (17-for-36), the 24-year-old Leonard has his slash line up to .412/.474/.553 with two homers, six doubles and five stolen bases. He was named the International League Player of the Month. An MLB call-up would top that honor.
Tyler Mahle, SP, Cincinnati Reds (Double-A Pensacola)
Part of a rebuilding team’s plan should be, and often is, to stock up on inexpensive veteran arms to eat up innings at the big league level while young prospects develop down on the farm. The Reds did not make that a strong priority in the offseason and the injuries to Anthony DeSclafani and Brandon Finnegan have only exacerbated the issue. As a result, at least two rotation spots could continue to be revolving doors throughout the season and any pitcher in the upper minors can force themselves into the mix.
Pitching a perfect game, as the 22-year-old Mahle did on April 22nd, should have placed him squarely on the Reds’ radar. He followed that up by throwing six shutout innings in last start, lowering his ERA to 0.55 with an astounding 0.52 WHIP and 34 strikeouts in 32.2 innings. While Triple-A Louisville would seem to be a more likely next destination for Mahle, the Reds could opt to ride the hot hand and find out if he’s ready to help out now.
Andrew Moore, SP, Seattle Mariners (Double-A Jackson)
It was Chase De Jong who was given the first crack at Felix Hernandez’s rotation spot and, based on the results (2.2 IP, 6 ER, 9 H), he might not get another start anytime soon. There are some decent options in Triple-A with MLB experience, including Chris Heston and Christian Bergman, but their best answer for some rotation stability could be a level below.
Since a promotion to Double-A Jackson last May, Moore has allowed more than two earned runs in only six of 24 appearances (23 starts) and has pitched at least six innings in fourteen of those games. That rare combination of consistency, durability and efficiency is why the 22-year-old right-hander could make a successful jump into the Major League rotation.
Ryan O’Hearn, 1B, Kansas City Royals (Triple-A Omaha)
Despite nine straight losses and an MLB worst 7-16 record, it’s probably a bit too early to write off the Royals and deem them “sellers” in early May. Even if they were, they’d have a difficult time finding a good deal for struggling first baseman Eric Hosmer, who has two extra-base hits—one double and one triple—and a .573 OPS. That doesn’t mean it’s too early to get a look at his possible successor, O’Hearn, who had a .312/.361/.571 slash line, five homers and 10 multi-hit games in April.
Brandon Moss has shown some signs of life as of late (4-for-12, 2 HR in last three games), but he’s been a disappointment with a .617 OPS and 24 strikeouts in his first 68 plate appearances. Signed to a two-year, $12MM deal in the offseason, he’s not in danger of losing his roster spot, but he could lose at-bats to the left-handed hitting O’Hearn until Hosmer is traded.
“Knocking Down the Door” is a weekly feature that identifies minor leaguers who are making a case for a big league promotion.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Reds Injury Notes: Bailey, DeSclafani, Finnegan
- There are a few updates on some Reds hurlers who are working back from injury, as C. Trent Rosecrans of the Cincinnati Enquirer reports. Homer Bailey will throw a pen session early next week — his first since having bone spurs removed over the offseason. Fellow righty Anthony DeSclafani, meanwhile, is unfortunately still not ready to start throwing. Doctors will reassess his sprained UCL after allowing it a few more weeks of rest. And lefty Brandon Finnegan, who’s dealing with an oblique issue, is still a week away even from being examined again by physicians. The club is allowing him plenty of rest before taking stock of his path back tot he rotation.
