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Walt Jocketty On Homer Bailey, Arbitration Cases

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The Reds spoke with Homer Bailey's representatives before the holidays about a new long-term contract for the right-hander, MLB.com's Mark Sheldon reports.  This isn't the first time the club has explored locking up Bailey, as the two sides reportedly discussed an extension last winter before settling on a one-year, $5.35MM contract to avoid arbitration.

Reds general manager Walt Jocketty told Sheldon that Bailey is the only one of Cincinnati's six arbitration-eligible players who is currently being considered for a long-term deal.  Unsurprisingly, Jocketty sees Bailey as "probably the one guy that's going to be the most difficult [to sign] because of how well he's done and where he's at in this service class.  Young pitchers are getting quite a bit."

"At this point, we really haven't discussed anybody but Homer to sign long term.  Homer is the only one we've pursued, but we've had internal discussions on the other guys. We just have to see how it all fits in, financially."

Bailey is arb-eligible for the third and final time this winter, and MLBTR's Matt Swartz projects that Bailey will earn $9.3MM through the arbitration process.  Another strong reason for Bailey would almost surely net him a $100MM contract in free agency next offseason, and the mid-market Reds would be hard-pressed outbid richer clubs for Bailey's services on the open market.  Even locking him up now would be an expensive proposition for the Reds — MLBTR's Tim Dierkes opined that it might take more than a five-year, $85MM deal to keep Bailey in the fold since he's so close to free agency.

If the Reds can't extend Bailey this offseason, they could explore a trade, though Jocketty has said that the team wants to keep Bailey in order to help them contend in 2014.  I'd guess it would also be difficult for Jocketty to find fair value for Bailey in a trade considering a suitor would only have him for one season.  Since Bailey would net Cincinnati a first-round compensation pick (for turning down a qualifying offer) if he signed elsewhere in the offseason, the Reds would likely only be motivated to move the righty if they could obtain something of greater value than a first-round pick.

Of the other arbitration cases, Leake and Chapman stand out as the only possible candidates for a long-term deal.  Leake, picked eighth overall in the 2009 draft, has become a solid part of the rotation in his own right, with a 3.99 ERA and 677 1/3 IP over his first four seasons.  This is Leake's second year of arb-eligibility and Swartz projects him to earn $5.9MM.  Chapman is projected by Swartz to earn $4.6MM through his first year of arbitration eligibility (on top of the $3MM he earns from his original contract).  It's probably unlikely that the Reds would look to make a long financial commitment to a closer, especially since the chance still exists that Chapman could be moved into the rotation.

Cafardo On Red Sox, Denorfia, Cruz, Kemp

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In today's column, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe writes that there were two disasters in the city of Toronto last year: mayor Rob Ford and the Blue Jays.  Despite the high expectations, the Blue Jays fell flat and they'll have to rally back this season to re-energize their fan base.  The Blue Jays are at a disadvantage, Cafardo writes, because players aren't always open to playing north of the border and tend not to realize how great it is until they're there.  More from this week's column.. 

  • The Brewers need a first baseman and Mike Carp of the Red Sox appears to be a good fit.  Whether Boston would deal him remains to be seen, however, as they enjoyed his off-the-bench contributions last season.  Carp has shown that he can play every day but he won’t get that opportunity with the Red Sox unless there’s an injury to Mike Napoli. 
  • While the Red Sox don’t believe they can carry another outfielder, they have expressed some interest in the Padres' Chris Denorfia, a righthanded bat with a little power who can play center field.  The Red Sox might be able to swing a move like this, Cafardo writes, if they deal Carp or Daniel Nava somewhere.
  • A few general managers think that a one-year pillow contract would make sense for free agent outfielder Nelson Cruz.  It seems that he needs to reestablish his value and if he'd do a one-year pact, it could open more opportunities for him with clubs like the Mariners, Mets, Blue Jays, Orioles, and others.  The 33-year-old remains one of the best power hitters out there, but teams are wary about PED guys after they’re off the stuff.
  • Dodgers outfielder Matt Kemp could still be trade bait as he starts to show what he can do in spring training.  Said one scout familiar with Kemp, “I think he’s going to be a guy who will be OK this year, but you’ll get the best of Kemp the following year as he’s recovered completely from the ankle.”
  • The Reds have been very quiet this offseason, but Homer Bailey’s name has come up quite often as possible trade bait.  In fact, they could possibly bring back Bronson Arroyo if they can deal Bailey.

Quick Hits: Ervin, Volstad, Huff, Carroll, Penny

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The Reds are impressed with outfielder and 2013 first-round pick Phillip Ervin, Mark Sheldon of MLB.com reports. "We were really impressed," says Reds director of player development Jeff Graupe. "Obviously, all the physical ability he has is the first thing you see. But over time, seeing the consistent quality of his at-bats was the most impressive thing for me." Ervin, 21, hit .331/.425/.564 in 2013 season split between rookie ball and Class A. Here are more notes from around the big leagues.

  • When the Angels signed pitcher Chris Volstad to a minor-league deal in November, they knew it was possible he might decide to play overseas instead, MLBTR's Zach Links tweets. Volstad recently signed on with the Doosan Bears in Korea.
  • Aubrey Huff has officially retired and accepted a job as a broadcaster with the Pac-12 Network, MLB Daily Dish's Chris Cotillo reports. Huff finishes his 13-year career with a .278/.342/.464 line in 6,786 plate appearances with the Rays, Astros, Orioles, Tigers and Giants.
  • Free-agent infielder Jamey Carroll could soon make a decision on a new team, FOX Sports' Ken Rosenthal tweets. Carroll, who will be 40 next month, hit .211/.267/.251 in 249 plate appearances with the Twins and Royals last season. He would likely receive a minor-league deal.
  • Brad Penny could make an "interesting no-risk signing," Troy Renck of the Denver Post tweets. Renck mentions that he has heard Penny has pitched well in offseason workouts. Penny, 35, last appeared in the big leagues in 2012 with the Giants, and he's now in the midst of a comeback attempt.

Reds Unlikely To Make Big Moves

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The Reds are unlikely to make any splashy moves this offseason, John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer reports. "It’s been very quiet," says GM Walt Jocketty. "I haven’t had one discussion with another team or an agent. That could change next week. But I think if we do anything, it will probably be a smaller type of deal." Fay notes that the Reds have no, or almost no, money left in their budget.

That means that the Reds are unlikely to re-sign Bronson Arroyo, and it also means they won't pursue higher-end free agents like Nelson Cruz and Stephen Drew, about whom Jocketty flatly says, "We don’t have the money."

One player the Reds could end up getting is former star Indians outfielder Grady Sizemore, MLB.com's Mark Sheldon reports. "We have [talked]," says Jocketty. "I'm not sure where that is right now. With the holidays, not much has happened." Due to injury trouble, Sizemore has not played since 2011, so if the Reds were to sign him, it would almost certainly be a minor-league deal.

Quick Hits: Tanaka, Eaton, Cardinals, Reds

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Mike Hegan, a longtime former player and broadcaster, passed away on Wednesday at age 71.  Hegan posted a .712 OPS in 2452 PA over 12 seasons with the Yankees, Brewers and Athletics from 1964-77, picking up a spot on the 1969 AL All-Star team as a Seattle Pilot (before the franchise moved to Milwaukee) and earning a World Series ring with the A's in 1972.  After retirement, Hegan moved to the broadcast booth and spent 12 seasons as a Brewers TV broadcaster before moving to his hometown of Cleveland in 1989 and spending 23 seasons calling Indians games on both TV and radio.  The MLBTR staff sends our condolences to Hegan's family and friends.

Here's the latest from around the majors…

  • Masahiro Tanaka's posting period opened this morning and the Yankees have already contacted Tanaka's agent Casey Close, Newsday's Marc Carig reports.  Earlier today on MLBTR, we collected more Tanaka-related news, and I opined that Tanaka's market may be larger than expected.
  • The Mariners will also be "a factor" for Tanaka, a baseball official tells Roger Rubin of the New York Daily News.  “They have a following in Japan. They enjoyed what they had when Ichiro (Suzuki) was on the team.  They want the chance for moves like getting [Robinson] Cano to pay off.  And they envision [Felix] Hernandez paired with Tanaka at the top of the rotation," the official said.
  • The White Sox are confident that the torn left UCL that sidelined Adam Eaton for half of the 2013 season is no longer a problem, GM Rick Hahn told CSN Chicago's Dan Hayes.  “The elbow injury wasn't something we felt, and our medical people felt, would be a long‑term issue….We certainly paid attention to what he looked like coming back from that injury, but it was the kind of thing that shouldn't be a lingering issue," Hahn said.  Hayes also talks to Eaton himself about his recovery from the injury.  Chicago acquired Eaton as part of the three-team trade with the D'Backs and Angels that sent Mark Trumbo to Arizona and Tyler Skaggs/Hector Santiago to L.A.
  • The Cardinals' low-profile additions of Peter Bourjos and Mark Ellis could pay big dividends and make the team better in 2014, MLB.com's Lyle Spencer opines.
  • The Reds' window for making a big trade "may be closing," MLB.com's Mark Sheldon writes.  The team should make a few moves in January, however, and could add a free agent bat if a discount price can be found.
  • Former Mariners GM Bill Bavasi contacted SB Nation's Rob Neyer about Bavasi's trade of Shin-Soo Choo to the Indians in 2006.  While Bavasi said he was under pressure from Seattle's upper management to improve the club, he doesn't excuse himself for moves that backfired, saying "the Choo and [Asdrubal] Cabrera trades were a product of my own stupidity and good work by the Indians."
  • Sportsnet.ca's Ben Nicholson-Smith lists three potential suitors for 10 of the top remaining free agents.
  • Finally, it was on this day in 1919 that arguably the most important trade in baseball history was agreed upon — Red Sox owner Harry Frazee's deal to sell Babe Ruth to the Yankees.  CBS Sports' Dayn Perry has some of the history behind the infamous sale, and MLB FanCave tweeted a picture of the actual transfer contract.

Latest On Bronson Arroyo

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The free agent pitching market is largely on hold due to the pending decision on whether Masahiro Tanaka will be posted.  One of the starters left in a holding pattern is veteran Bronson Arroyo, who tells ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick that he's anxiously waiting for his phone to ring with a strong opportunity.  

While it was previously rumored that the Reds offered him a one-year deal, Arroyo says that never happened.  Arroyo, 37 in February, also denies that he was ever close to an agreement with the Twins.  However, Crasnick notes that the Reds could still ultimately be in the mix for him and we heard earlier today that the Twins have maintained dialogue with the free agent hurler.

Minnesota's interest in Arroyo has been known for some time, but they've already committed about $84MM to Ricky Nolasco, Phil Hughes, and Mike Pelfrey this offseason.  The Reds, meanwhile, need pitching depth, but they could be wary of the price tag on one of baseball's most durable pitchers.  Arroyo is the only pitcher in baseball to make at least 32 starts per year from 2005 through 2013.

Many scouts and evaluators think Arroyo would be better served pitching in the National League than the American, but his performance in hitter-friendly Great American Park has made him confident that he can survive anywhere.  Arroyo would prefer the East Coast to the West Coast, but he says that's not a deal-breaker by any means.  

"There's no point in me really thinking about where my perfect place is, because I don't know who's interested," Arroyo told Crasnick. "It's like going to a party and the whole premise is to find a wife. There are ten girls there, and three of them are smoking hot, but they don't even look in your direction twice, so there's no point in going after them. Then maybe somebody else comes along who didn't seem so attractive at first, and you like what she's saying and you think, 'Hey, maybe this is the one.' That's the way I see it. I can't pick and choose teams. They have to choose me, and I realize it could take a long time for them to get where they need to be. I've been fine, but if it's January 15th and I'm still spinning my wheels, I'll probably change my tune."

Reactions To Shin-Soo Choo Signing

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By agreeing to a seven-year, $130MM contract today with Shin-Soo Choo, the Rangers put an exclamation point on an offseason of sizable future salary commitments — for the team and the league as a whole. Along with the contract commitments taken on or made to Alex Rios, Prince Fielder, Martin Perez, Elvis Andrus, and Matt Harrison, Texas has added nearly $400MM in future salary obligations to its books during the 2013 calendar year. And as MLBTR's 2014 Free Agent Tracker shows, league-wide salary expenditure through free agency has now passed the bar set in 2013, when the league spent $1.46 billion on open-market players. 

With Choo off the board, the top remaining free agent position players are Stephen Drew and Nelson Cruz. Of course, several other major pitching targets are still free, and figure to command sizeable deals of their own. Here are some of the early reactions from around baseball to Choo's signing:

  • As far as discipline goes, Choo, Prince Fielder and Geovany Soto will add real stress to opponent pitch counts, writes Evan Grant of the Dallas News. In 2013, the Rangers ranked ninth in the AL in total pitches seen and that was with the benefit one of extra game.
  • In the wake of Choo signing with Texas, Reds GM Walt Jocketty reiterated that Billy Hamilton is his guy, writes John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer.  “He’s the guy,” Jocketty said. “We feel confident he can be a good leadoff hitter. He’ll give us great defense. The only question is how often he can get on base. He’ll start working on his bunting again after the first of the year. If he can master that, it will really help him.”
  • The Rangers and Boras worked well into Friday night and Saturday morning to put together the deal, writes Tim Brown of Yahoo Sports.  Brown adds that Choo's left-handed bat should play particularly well in Texas.
  • Bringing Choo into the fold takes care of the final item on the Rangers' to-do list and helps ensure that the three-way race for the American League West will once again be must-see baseball, writes Fangraphs' Paul Swydan.
  • Richard Durrett of ESPNDallas.com looks at possible lineups for the Rangers now that Choo is in the fold.

Jeff Todd contributed to this post.

NL Notes: Reds, Arroyo, Braves, Giants, Phillies

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Homer Bailey is due to become a free agent after the season, but the Reds are telling other teams that they don't want to trade him, Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reports (via Twitter). The Reds are worried about their depth in starting pitching, and Heyman notes that the return of Bronson Arroyo might be able to help them. Heyman also tweets that the Reds are one of the finalists for Arroyo, along with the Twins and two other teams. Here are more notes from around the National League.

  • The Braves are not interested in Arroyo, David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution tweets. They would prefer a starting pitcher with better stuff, O'Brien says.
  • One player the Braves do like is sidearmer Luis Vasquez, who they recently signed to a minor-league contract, O'Brien writes. "He’s [Peter] Moylan plus five miles an hour," says GM Frank Wren. "Moylan at his best was probably 92, and this is 94, 97 routinely. It’s definitely a different look." Vasquez, who will be 28 in April, posted a 2.52 ERA with 11.6 K/9 and 7.1 BB/9 in 35 2/3 innings split between Double-A and Triple-A in 2013. Clearly, he'll have to improve his control to make an impact in the Majors.
  • The Giants had interest in Omar Infante, FOX Sports' Jon Morosi tweets. Somewhat surprisingly, they were interested in using him as a left fielder in 2014, before eventually moving him to third base. Infante today agreed to terms on a four-year deal with the Royals to be their second baseman.
  • The Phillies are neither rebuilding nor contending, and their plan is unclear, argues Matt Gelb of the Inquirer. Since late July, for example, the Phillies have spent $69MM signing or re-signing aging veterans Chase Utley, Carlos Ruiz and Marlon Byrd, and yet they are trying to trade veteran closer Jonathan Papelbon. Meanwhile, Gelb argues, they agreed to sign Roberto Hernandez because they hadn't developed enough pitching on their own.

D-Backs Acquire Todd Glaesmann To Complete Heath Bell Trade

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The Diamondbacks have acquired outfielder Todd Glaesmann from the Rays in order to complete the three-team Heath Bell trade that also included the Reds, according to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports (on Twitter). The trade saw Bell and catcher Ryan Hanigan go to the Rays, left-hander David Holmberg go to the Reds and minor league right-hander Justin Choate and a PTBNL (Glaesmann) go to the D-Backs.

The 23-year-old Glaesmann was a third-round pick in the 2009 draft and, as pointed out by the Tampa Bay Times' Marc Topkin (on Twitter), the Rays' 2012 minor league player of the year. Glaesmann slashed .285/.336/.493 with 21 homers that season between Class-A and Class-A Advanced, but he slumped to a .240/.289/.378 line at Double-A in 2013.

Prior to the 2013 campaign, Baseball America ranked Glaesmann 21st among Rays prospects, noting that he had the strongest throwing arm in the Rays' system and was named the best defensive in the Midwest League in 2012. BA added that his willingness to hit to all fields should allow him to hit for average as well. Glaesmann played the outfield corners almost exclusively in 2013 (he logged one game in center) but has 126 career games in center in the minors as well.

Dodgers Notes: Kemp, Phillips, Gordon, Kasten

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Matt Kemp and Brandon Phillips have been two of the offseason's biggest names rumored to be on the trade market, and there was a chance the two could've been dealt for each other in a blockbuster.  The Dodgers and Reds "briefly spoke about" swapping the two All-Stars earlier this winter, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post, but the Dodgers didn't have much interest.  L.A. wasn't keen on adding an older player (Phillips is 32) who is owed $50MM through 2017, plus the Dodgers felt the deal wouldn't have been a fair swap if Kemp returned to full health.

Here are some more items from Chavez Ravine…

  • There isn't any truth to rumors of a Dodgers/Royals trade that would sent Dee Gordon to Kansas City in exchange for Justin Maxwell, ESPN Los Angeles' Mark Saxon reports (via Twitter).
  • The Dodgers fully intend to rebuild their minor league depth, team president Stan Kasten said tells Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times, and while they've moved some minor leaguers in trades, Kasten is pleased that "we kept adding pieces while keeping the guys we valued the most."  Speaking in general, Kasten said "what would have interested us — and might still — is to trade one of our veterans if we can get back young, controllable players and prospects."  In addition, while Kasten says the Dodgers don't plan to trade any of their key youngsters, "there are deals on the table that include top prospects."
  • The Dodgers could consider trading pitching prospects in order to obtain more position player prospects, Kasten said, as the club is lacking in youngsters who can play the field.
  • Earlier today on MLBTR, the Dodgers acquired righty Seth Rosin from the Mets, and FOX Sports' Ken Rosenthal shared a few items about the Dodgers in his most recent column.
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