Graziano On Greinke, Pettitte
Good stuff today from Dan Graziano of the Newark Star-Ledger. Here’s my summary:
- Beyond the Cubs, Graziano lists the Braves, Dodgers, and Diamondbacks as teams interested in pitcher Zack Greinke. If the initial asking price for Octavio Dotel was as high as reported, I can’t imagine what Dayton Moore would want for Greinke.
- Graziano’s Dotel suitors: Cubs, Dodgers, and Brewers. The Red Sox, Rockies, and Indians have been mentioned by other sources. Quite a market for this guy.
- David Weathers is seen as the poor man’s Dotel/Gagne. Let’s see if Wayne Krivsky can get something useful for him. Stormy makes another $2.75MM in ’08 before his contract is up.
- The Mets are mostly focused on a power relief arm, as Roy Oswalt and Dontrelle Willis are said to be unavailable. I have no idea why Willis keeps getting lumped in with Oswalt; they are nowhere near equal. Graziano says the Mets still like Javier Vazquez but the White Sox keep trying to pawn off Jose Contreras instead.
- The Braves are trying to deal for southpaw reliever C.J. Wilson of the Rangers. The 26 year-old has an undeserved 2.81 ERA right now. His control has been worse this year, so he’d have to remain unhittable to be effective.
- The Mariners inquired on Andy Pettitte, but the Yankees aren’t giving up yet.
Olney: Braves Interested In Arroyo
ESPN’s Buster Olney heard a rumor: the Braves are interested in Bronson Arroyo. Olney believes the Reds would demand Jarrod Saltalamacchia. Personally, I think Salty can bring someone better. And using him at first base isn’t the worst idea in the world, if no one knocks John Schuerholz’s socks off.
Arroyo is the definition of an innings eater, and he’s signed at about market rate. On second thought, $10MM a year for him might be slightly below-market. Atlanta got a good look at Arroyo last night, as the 30 year-old hurler had his best start of the season (seven scoreless innings). Arroyo has been solid in his last five starts, though he did get to face the Cardinals and Giants.
So, are there any Braves fans out there who would trade Salty for Arroyo?
Rosenthal’s Latest: Lohse, Hunter, Contreras
The latest trade and signing rumors from Ken Rosenthal:
- Rosenthal believes Alex Rodriguez‘s ability to play shortstop could increase the number of suitors. Take a look at the free agents – there may not be a single viable option at short this winter. Still, the number of suitors for Rodriguez is severely limited by his massive contract requirement. Not too many clubs aside from the Yankees and Red Sox can get in on $240MM over eight years or whatever. The lack of available, reasonably priced shortstops could compel the Braves and Orioles to aggressively shop Edgar Renteria and Miguel Tejada.
- As a 29 year-old free agent starter with decent stuff, Scott Boras could sell Kyle Lohse as the next Gil Meche this winter. Meche’s work in the season’s first three months would only aid the wishcasting. I put up a little Lohse history here, writing that his deal will likely fall somewhere between Jason Marquis and Meche. Other free agent starters who will be under 30 for the 2008 season: Carlos Zambrano, Jason Jennings, Joe Kennedy, and Byung-Hyun Kim.
- Rosenthal believes the Rangers will bid on Torii Hunter this winter unless they acquire a proven center fielder this summer. He mentions that Jon Daniels set his sights on Shane Victorino but the Phils would rather trade Michael Bourn. Unless the Rangers get a proven guy they will still go after Hunter.
- The Mariners scouted Jose Contreras and Matt Morris recently, but both were lousy. I still think Jennings could sneak in there as the best available starter, but he too hasn’t pitched well in July. Definitely seems like the Mariners will snag some kind of starter.
- Rosenthal disputes Evan Grant’s report of the Brewers and Indians showing interest in Kenny Lofton. The Brewers are getting Bill Hall back soon and the Indians have some outfielders on the road to recovery as well. Perfect, this frees him up for the Cubs!
- Rosenthal mentions the same teams I did for Kevin Millar, but sees an August deal as a possibility. Waiting until August doesn’t seem to make sense for the Orioles, as things get trickier then.
- The Padres could trade Scott Linebrink in order to make payroll room for a starter. Or they could just sign Brian Lawrence. I discussed some other options for the Friars here.
Reds Could Trade Arroyo
Just a small note in Nick Cafardo’s recent column: the Reds could trade 30 year-old starter Bronson Arroyo.
Last year, Arroyo took the National League by storm by posting a 3.29 ERA in a whopping 240 innings. He led all of baseball with 3851 pitches thrown. Either the league started figuring him out this year, or the workload caught up to him and contributing to his declining strikeout rate. Maybe a little of both.
In February of this year, Wayne Krivsky signed Arroyo to a contract extension for 2009-10. Under his previous contract he’ll get $3.95MM in ’08, and the Reds added a $2.5MM signing bonus to that. He’ll make $9.5MM in ’09, $11MM in ’10, and has an $11MM club option for ’11 with a $2MM buyout attached. So basically think $29MM for 2008-10. It’s not terrible but not a bargain; $10MM is probably the going rate for a guy like Arroyo these days. Not bad for a guy waived by the Pirates in ’03.
Woody Paige considers Arroyo one option for the Rockies, but finds it unlikely. The only past Arroyo trade rumor I know of was back in December of ’05, when he was rumored to be going to Seattle for Jeremy Reed. The Mariners remain in the hunt for a starter, but Arroyo probably isn’t viewed as much more than an innings-eater by most clubs. Some other teams possibly looking for a starter include the Braves, Padres, Phillies, Brewers, Dodgers, and Diamondbacks.
Will Griffey Be Dealt?
To hear Reds GM Wayne Krivsky tell it, "There’s a lot of misinformation out there." We’ll try not to contribute to that. But here’s the latest on Ken Griffey Jr.
Hal McCoy of the Dayton Daily News believes Junior will only go to Chicago or Atlanta; apparently the Mariners aren’t interested right now. Griffey would have to be interested too, given his trade veto power. When McCoy says Chicago, I assume he means the Cubs. The White Sox seem unlikely, but you never know.
The chatter was reignited on Tuesday, when Peter Gammons quoted Griffey talking about how it made sense for the Reds to trade him now. Griffey’s agent, Brian Goldberg, seemed to indicate that the quote from Griffey may have been taken slightly out of context.
Goldberg also mentions in that article that the Reds called Griffey to shoot down a rumor that had him going to the Brewers. That one was new to me, but it sounds like there’s nothing to it.
Griffey would certainly be a helpful addition in right field at Wrigley. However, as Greg Couch writes, the team’s direction with player acquisitions and contracts is an open question right now. Ken Rosenthal, back on June 24th, said the Cubs were not involved in a trade for Griffey. Jayson Stark debunked the Atlanta rumor a few days before that.
Another major wrinkle for any Griffey trade is that he’s knocking on the door of 600 home runs and could pass Sammy Sosa this year for fifth all-time. The Reds would hate to miss out on that good publicity.
Rosenthal’s Latest: Willis, Dunn, Griffey
Ken Rosenthal has a new column up today. Not too much brand new material but worth discussing nonetheless.
- Rosenthal opines that Dontrelle Willis is currently at his peak value. Mark Buehrle is off the market. Dontrelle is seemingly healthy and under control through 2009. There was a scare, though, when Willis had a sore forearm in June. Rosenthal points out that despite mediocre stats the past couple of seasons, Willis still has an ace aura about him. That’s probably because of his near-Cy Young in ’05 and the way he took the league by storm in ’03. The Mets, Mariners, Dodgers, Red Sox, Rockies, and Diamondbacks could all be interested in the Marlins start shopping Willis. Larry Beinfest seems to be leaning against it though.
- The Padres may still consider trading for Adam Dunn, but will see how Milton Bradley plays over the next few weeks first. The Reds and Padres aren’t a great match, as the Padres don’t have many big-name prospects. Maybe something like Clay Hensley plus Chase Headley (those names are oddly similar), if the Reds are sour on Edwin Encarnacion?
- Many members of the Mariners’ front office would like to bring Ken Griffey Jr. back, but CEO Howard Lincoln "harbors resentment over Griffey’s departure in 2000." That makes it sound like Griffey left via free agency, but of course he was actually traded to the Reds. I did a little digging on that situation, and found that the Mariners offered Griffey an eight-year, $140MM contract in September of 1999. Junior turned that down and requested a trade in November, citing a desire to play closer to his Orlando home. Death threats also turned him off from Seattle. At that time he named the Reds, Braves, Astros, Indians, and Mets as teams he’d like to play for. By December Griffey decided he’d only accept a trade to Cincinnati – he even vetoed a trade to the Mets.
- If healthy, David Wells plans to pitch again in ’08. The Padres probably wouldn’t mind having him back.
Rosenthal On The Angels
Ken Rosenthal weighs in on the Angels’ offense today, speculating about a Ken Griffey Jr. acquisition. Other ideas for that "big bat": Miguel Cabrera, Morgan Ensberg, Garrett Atkins, Troy Glaus, Adam Dunn, Pat Burrell, or Mark Teahen. None seem likely and many seem foolish. Can you really see Stoneman making a major acquisition? I feel a GM Trade Profile coming on, once I finish Omar’s.
The Halos are fifth in the AL in OBP and eighth in slugging; it’s not like they’re the Twins. Still, as Rosenthal says, one more slugger could make them World Series favorites. You can think of a million reasons why a Barry Bonds trade would never happen, but he would boost the offense immensely. Other ideas: Carlos Pena or Dmitri Young.
Rosenthal’s Latest: Dunn, Morris, Buehrle
Ken Rosenthal’s got a new Full Count video over at FOXSports; have a look. Trade rumors:
- The Padres went with the Barrett/Bradley acquisitions in part because the price on Adam Dunn was just too high. Wayne Krivsky could get more teams involved if he exercises Dunn’s 2008 option and tries to trade him in the offseason, a la Gary Sheffield. However, unlike Sheff, Dunn has full no-trade protection until June 15th if the option is picked up. Then on June 15th it switches to a ten-team consent list of Dunn’s choosing. The bottom line: the time to trade him is now.
- The Giants are listening to offers for Matt Morris, but might prefer to just keep him. He sets an example for younger pitchers and his contract isn’t terrible. I think this would be a mistake on the part of Brian Sabean. Morris’s performance this year just seems unsustainable given his 4.5 K/9. While I recently mentioned Jason Jennings as the best available starter after Buehrle, Jennings’ health issues could push Morris to #2.
- Rosenthal also mentioned that should he reach free agency, Mark Buehrle is no lock to sign with the Cardinals. The Cards aren’t apt to pay full price, and Buehrle isn’t necessarily desperate to pitch close to home.
Forgotten Trade Candidates
Amidst all the Buehrle/Jacque rumors floating around this week, we’ve neglected to write about the many other players who could be traded in July. Let’s give a little press to three forgotten players who could be on the move.
Kyle Lohse, SP, CIN – I was pretty high on Lohse after April, thinking he was about to go all Bronson Arroyo on the NL. Good Bronson, that is. But Lohse followed up his first four starts by going 2-10 with a 6.27 ERA and 4.4 K/9. And that actually included a shutout against the Pirates. It’s hard to see how Lohse can help a pennant contender this year, but as a Boras client and impending free agent earning $4.2MM, Wayne Krivsky should dump him off somewhere. OK, so now that I think about it, he’s more of a DFA candidate than a trade candidate.
Joe Kennedy, SP, OAK – Billy Beane might be able to move the 28 year-old southpaw and free agent-to-be for something useful. Kennedy makes only $2.8MM and has an ERA under 4. That might not last with his microscopic strikeout rate though. With Esteban Loaiza on the shelf and Rich Harden questionable, Beane might have to hold off and take the draft picks for Kennedy. But given Kennedy’s strong groundball tendencies and the Phillies’ lousy starting pitching, maybe they could match up.
Jose Guillen, RF, SEA – Guillen is earning $4MM this year with a $9MM club option for ’08. The Mariners are just 2.5 games out of the wild card, and their rotation could use a boost. Guillen has posted a subpar line for a right fielder – .257/.330/.412. I’m not sure how much trade value he has, but the Mariners already have a superior player ready to go at Triple A in Adam Jones. Guillen is on pace for about 20 homers and 90 RBIs, so maybe some GM would bite on that. Teams looking for an outfielder with some pop could include the Royals, Twins, Mets, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, and Padres.
Griffey Hopes To Retire A Mariner
Ken Griffey Jr. finished his return to Seattle with a flourish, smacking a pair of home runs off Miguel Batista in the final game of the Mariners-Reds series. The performance moved him past Mark McGwire to seventh on the all-time list. Here’s how it looks now:
1. Aaron – 755
2. Bonds – 749
3. Ruth – 714
4. Mays – 660
5. Sosa – 601
6. Robinson – 586
7. Griffey – 584
Junior should move into sixth very soon. Griffey has more staying power than Sammy Sosa, and should pass him in due time. I can see Griffey retiring fourth on the all-time list, passing Mays as well. He is the man America wishes was chasing Aaron right now.
Let’s be realistic about Sosa, by the way. He has a .305 OBP. He’s having a terrible year, well below average for his position. Sosa is about the 200th best hitter in baseball right now, based on VORP. His performance has been roughly on par with that of Alex Cora. He has been out-hit by many pitchers. He is a sideshow and should not be starting for any team.
Anyway, back to Griffey. He recently created a stir in Seattle, saying he’d like to retire as a Mariner. However, it was unclear whether he wanted to play another season or two in Seattle or if he just wanted a one-day contract on his last day.
U.S.S. Mariner likes the idea, but hopes it happens in 2009 instead of anytime soon. Adam Jones and Wladimir Balentien comprise two-thirds of the Tacoma Ranier outfield right now, and the tandem will remain together in Seattle for many years. There are better ways for the Mariners to spend money and talent right now than bringing Griffey back, even as a DH.