Rosenthal’s Latest – Buehrle To Brewers?
Ken Rosenthal has a new article, and as usual he’s broken several brand new trade rumors. A brief summary:
- Here’s a good one: the Brewers have "kicked the tires" on Mark Buehrle. You can never have too much pitching, I guess. It’s a long shot that Doug Melvin could pull it off without involving Yovani Gallardo or Ryan Braun, and he won’t trade those two. Without either player, the Brewers would pretty much be offering quantity over quality in terms of prospects. My own speculation: Corey Hart might intrigue Kenny Williams, but he’d be hard to part with.
- Rosenthal estimates ten teams are looking at Buehrle. He names the Mets, Braves, Mariners, and Cardinals. Add the Brewers and we’re still five short. The five Rosenthal doesn’t mention could include the Red Sox, Yankees, Marlins, Rockies, Dodgers, and Phillies. Just guessing on the last five.
- The Blue Jays have changed their tune on Troy Glaus – they’ll now listen to offers for him. It is believed Glaus might waive his no-trade clause to play close to home for the Padres, Angels, or Dodgers. Glaus is owed about $5.9MM more this year and $12.75MM in 2008. He also negotiated an $11.25MM player option for ’09 when he was traded to Toronto. Perhaps to agree to a trade he’d want his deal extended through ’09 for $13MM or so. Rosenthal says the package for Glaus would likely involve a young third baseman, like Chase Headley, Brandon Wood, or Andy LaRoche. Such a deal would be hard to ignore for J.P. Ricciardi. Of the three teams mentioned, Ricciardi has only previously dealt with Bill Stoneman (on the Brad Fullmer trade).
- Rosenthal says the Cubs are not involved in a trade for Ken Griffey Jr. The ownership change will prohibit them from taking on his contract. Rosenthal also mentions that the Cubs are having difficulties finding a taker for Jacque Jones.
- The Angels still like Adam Dunn, though I still don’t see how he fits into their roster.
- The prospect going to the Tigers for Mike Maroth won’t be anything special; the point was to unload his $3MM salary.
Rosenthal’s Latest
Ken Rosenthal has a new column up. A summary appears below.
- Rosenthal thinks the Tigers are unlikely to acquire Eric Gagne or Akinori Otsuka, perhaps preferring to look at internal options. That’s a shame, as I think they really need to add someone.
- The White Sox won’t be granting a 72 hour negotiating window if they trade Mark Buehrle. Strictly a rental. That could limit the market for him, but Kenny Williams will come up with at least one quality prospect.
- The Dodgers don’t seem likely to trade for Adam Dunn or Jermaine Dye, but could go after Mark Teixeira. Dye seems most likely to end up in the NL West somehow, but only if he is healthy and hitting.
- Possible Dontrelle Willis suitors: the Rockies or Diamondbacks. They’ve got the young trading chips, and the need in the present day. The Rox could offer Aaron Cook plus prospects, and the D’Backs could try Livan Hernandez and youngsters. If the D’Backs dare offer up Justin Upton, the Marlins would jump. Of course, D-Train needs to be healthy and the Marlins would need to fall out of contention.
- Barry Bonds‘s agent really doesn’t see a trade happening. Well, no one does, but it’s fun to speculate. Rosenthal thinks only the Yankees could accomodate him.
- Aside from the Pirates and Padres, the Astros, Cardinals, and Rangers could go after Milton Bradley.
- Rosenthal has a GM source who thinks the Reds could wait until this winter, exercise Adam Dunn’s $13MM option for ’08, and then trade him. Dunn, however, would gain no-trade protection until June 15, 2008 and then be able to block 10 teams thereafter.
- Troy Glaus isn’t going anywhere. Even if the Jays wanted to trade him, his contract is prohibitive.
- The Indians or Rockies could trade for Octavio Dotel for bullpen depth. Dotel is developing into a fine trading chip for Dayton Moore, just as planned. The Tribe has had interest in Dotel in past offseasons.
Rangers Interested In Jacque Jones
This is unexpected. Apparently the Texas Rangers have discussed a for right fielder Jacque Jones with the Cubs.
Jones makes $4MM this year and $5MM in ’08, so at first glance it’s perplexing that a team like Texas would want him. There are two scenarios I can see. Maybe the Rangers are working on a larger deal and Jones helps fill some other club’s need. Or, maybe the Rangers like Jones at $5MM for 2008 and think he could be a useful part of next year’s club. Regardless, I don’t expect Jim Hendry to get much in return for Jones. Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times mentions that the Cubs are in talks with several other teams about Jones as well.
Wittenmyer also mentions that the Cubs would like to acquire a middle-of-the-order left-handed hitter. He specifically names Ken Griffey Jr., who surfaced in a rumor a few days ago. Wittenmyer mentions that Griffey is owed $6.5MM in 2007 and 2008 with a team option for 2009. That’s not exactly true, as Griffey actually makes $12.5MM but with a lot deferred. According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, that makes the present day value of the contract something like $9-10MM. And don’t forget the $4MM buyout for ’09 and possible compensation for waiving the no-trade clause. According to Wittenmeyer, Griffey has told friends he’d welcome a move to Chicago.
On my first draft of this post, I had a hard time identifying other lefty sluggers the Cubs could acquire. Somehow I missed the obvious one, which is Adam Dunn. Such an acquisition would require creativity, such as moving Alfonso Soriano to right field. But Dunn is definitely someone the Cubs should consider if in need of a lefty slugger.
Latest Dunn To Padres Rumor
A new trade rumor has surfaced, though Kevin Towers may have already shot it down.
The report on San Diego radio (specifically XX Sportsradio 1090) was that the Padres could send southpaw reliever Justin Hampson as well as groundball artist Clay Hensley to the Reds for Adam Dunn. Kevin Towers described this rumor as "not worth chasing" to the San Diego Union Tribune’s Tim Sullivan.
Hampson is the only lefty in the Padres’ pen, and he’s allowed just two earned runs in 22.1 innings. However, his strikeout rate is quite low and his history isn’t that impressive. The Padres insist they don’t need a southpaw in the pen, but could easily bring up Royce Ring if they trade Hampson.
After a breakout rookie season in ’06, Hensley hasn’t been able to get on track this year. He’s been battered around in 12 starts split between the Padres and Triple A. He had a fine spring but blister and groin injuries surfaced and Hensley ended up losing his rotation spot to Justin Germano.
Kevin Towers and Wayne Krivsky have matched up on a trade once before. In March of 2006, Towers sent catcher Dave Ross to the Reds for right-handed starter/former top prospect Bobby Basham.
Cubs-Reds Griffey Rumor
There’s a Cubs-Reds rumor making the rounds, reportedly one that originated on The Score here in Chicago. Obviously I can’t catch all the radio rumors myself, so I rely on listeners to pass these along. Since these rumors often spread like a game of telephone, consider this one dubious until confirmed.
The rumor hitting my inbox repeatedly: the Cubs could send Sean Marshall and Jacque Jones to the Reds for Ken Griffey Jr. Keep in mind, this one isn’t even confirmed as a legitimate rumor.
Whether or not this rumor has any legitimacy, let’s discuss. In Marshall I see a strong left-handed starter under the team’s control through 2011. He’s improved his repertoire and should be a cog in the Cubs’ rotation for years. In other words, very valuable.
Griffey is in the midst of another resurgence, but is at significant risk of injury at any given moment. There’s a chance playing right field reduces that, but I wouldn’t bank on it. Griffey makes $12.5MM annually through 2008, plus he’ll be owed a $4MM buyout for 2009. When I began writing this I thought Junior’s contract was a lot worse. It’s really not terrible and would be somewhat offset by Jacque Jones. I can see Griffey approving a trade to Chicago, though he could ask for his contract to be guaranteed through ’09.
I can see how one could consider this trade fair. I wouldn’t trade Marshall for the risk of Griffey, but it doesn’t sound absurd. I still don’t see it happening – why would the Cubs take a hit in the rotation to add more offense? The Cubs have a strong rotation and will need Marshall over the next several seasons. It seems more logical for the Cubs to add a reliever.
Meanwhile, CubDumb reports that the Cubs are actively shopping Michael Barrett right now. While this might aid the pitching staff, it would likely weaken the offense.
Healey’s Latest
Mark Healey at Gotham Baseball has long been a solid, underappreciated source of inside information. He’s got another Rumor Mill up at his site. My summary follows.
- The Yankees have an eye on big-name 1Bs like Mark Teixeira and Todd Helton. But more realistically, they’re looking at Tampa Bay’s Carlos Pena. He’s got the defense, so even if he regresses to a 20 HR bat it’s a nice pickup. Healey’s source believes Tyler Clippard is too much but the Rays like Sean Henn. The Yanks have also inquired about the versatile Ty Wigginton.
- The Reds, Rockies, and others have been scouting the Yankees’ Double A Trenton affiliate. Joba Chamberlain, Ian Kennedy, and Brett Gardner are probably the most desirable players on that roster. Gotham Baseball has previously connected the Yankees to Brian Fuentes and David Weathers. Another reliever the Yankees like is Chad Bradford, though the O’s price may be too high.
- Gotham quotes an NL scout who doesn’t believe the Mets will acquire a starter by trading Lastings Milledge, Carlos Gomez, or Fernando Martinez. That scout believes the return of Pedro will supply the needed boost. Personally, I can see Milledge going.
- Some former Mets on the radar: Brady Clark, Jay Payton, and David Weathers.
- Healey says the Mets sent scouts to look at Randy Winn this weekend. They must not be pleased with Moises Alou‘s progress. As I mentioned earlier, Winn is signed through 2009. He has a full no-trade clause this year. For 2008-09 he can block deals to ten teams.
- The Pirates have some vets to trade, and have contacted the Mets regarding Shawn Chacon and Damaso Marte. Marte is quietly having a fine season with a 1.21 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. Marte earns $2.45MM this year, and $2MM in ’08 with an odd $6MM club option for 2009. He can also earn incentives based on games finished.
Sheehan On Adam Dunn
Joe Sheehan of Baseball Prospectus gives his analysis on some Adam Dunn trade suitors. And it’s a free article.
Is Dunn really a lightning rod for criticism in Cincinnati? I’d like to see what those who live there think. I feel that in this day and age Dunn is mostly appreciated for his strengths.
Sheehan’s top five fits for Dunn, in order of likelihood, are the Twins, Angels, Yankees, Padres, and A’s. As Sheehan alludes to, Terry Ryan and Bill Stoneman don’t make this type of trade.
What’s more, the Angels would have a serious logjam with Dunn. You don’t move Casey Kotchman off first, leaving the DH and left field spots for Dunn. You’d rotate the DH spot between Dunn and Vlad, and the left field spot between Garrett Anderson, Reggie Willits, and occasionally Dunn. Someone’s losing some playing time in the deal, and Vlad is probably getting less time at DH to rest. Use of Dunn on the field probably compromises the defense. An Anderson injury could make this less of a problem. Another thought: a coworker of mine suggested that the Angels give up some quality prospects for their bat, but force the inclusion of Shea Hillenbrand in the deal. Not a bad idea.
Interesting to note that Sheehan calls Chase Headley unavailable. Not sure if that is based on some inside info. I had speculated yesterday that Headley’s callup could be a showcase.
Sheehan’s idea of the Yankees for Dunn makes a ton of sense, but they would have to assemble a prospect package without any real alluring name. Well, Joba Chamberlain might be somewhat alluring. It sounds like Wayne Krivsky would ask for Robinson Cano though.
Reds and Angels Discuss Dunn
According to Ben Bolch of the L.A. Times, the Angels had preliminary discussions with the Reds regarding Adam Dunn. Bolch’s source indicates that talks died because the Reds requested "a proven Major League starting pitcher, a Major League infielder – preferably a second baseman – and a top prospect."
Translation: Wayne Krivsky wanted Ervin Santana, Erick Aybar, and Brandon Wood. OK, that sounds absurd. And Aybar is a shortstop. Negotiation is all about asking for more than you want and meeting at the right place, but I can’t figure out what the Reds asked for. There’s no way they asked for the above with a straight face. Maybe they wanted Santana and Howie Kendrick? But then a top prospect on top? C’mon now. Bolch’s source says the Halos wouldn’t trade Kendrick for Dunn straight up.
Santana plus one other useful player would be a fine bounty for Dunn, who will reach free agency after the season if he’s traded.
I have a correction, as I earlier wrote that Krivsky could simply exercise Dunn’s 2008 option and then retain freedom to trade him. That’s not exactly true. The situation, according to Ken Rosenthal:
"If the Reds keep Dunn and exercise his option after the season, he will gain full no-trade protection until next June 15. After that date, he could be traded to 10 clubs, but the list would be of his own choosing."
By the way, the Angels may turn their attention back to Miguel Tejada if they can’t get Dunn. The Halos are again interested in him, according to the Riverside Press Enterprise.
Rosenthal’s Latest
The authority on all trade rumors, Ken Rosenthal has spoken. Let’s review.
- As we have heard before, the Dodgers like Adam Dunn. We’ve also discussed the fact that there’s not a clear place to put him. Whether you go with first base or left field, a veteran must move. The Padres like Dunn as well but talks have yet to occur. The Angels may have liked him in the past but they don’t seem likely at this point. And the Twins? They just won’t break the bank for him unfortunately.
- With Michael Barrett having issues with 40% of the Cubs’ rotation, the Cubs could look to trade him. Even though he’s a top offensive catcher, his impending free agency might prevent any strong return. Plus, the Cubs would have to go with a Henry Blanco/Koyie Hill tandem. A more likely scenario is that the Cubs will let Barrett walk after the season.
- Finally some clarity on Eric Gagne‘s limited no-trade protection. Rosenthal reveals that he can veto trades to 12 teams. The Phillies and Indians are again mentioned as suitors. Rosenthal thinks Mark Teixeira could generate a lot of talk but no action at the trading deadline. Kind of like Alfonso Soriano or A.J. Burnett before him.
- The asking price for Brad Lidge, supposedly: a premium young catcher and promising young pitcher. Lidge will probably earn $8MM next year before hitting free agency. The Astros should be happy with a young catcher or a young pitcher, not both. I’d mention Salty here but I think he is worth much more than Lidge. Rosenthal says the Astros could move another bullpen arm like Wheeler or Qualls to get the bat they need.
- Could the Devil Rays simply retain Al Reyes and Carlos Pena? Both players could be valuable contributors to the 2008 club. I like the idea of keeping Reyes around for next year, but I think Pena has peaked.
- Noah Lowry would get the attention of the Braves or Cardinals, but the Giants are unlikely to move him.
- The Phils are likely to pass on Tomo Ohka despite their need for pitching.
Scouting The Reds
The chatter regarding Reds’ left fielder Adam Dunn is picking up, and it’s only June 13th. It’s looking more and more like we can add Dunn to our 2008 MLB free agents list, as his 2008 option becomes void with a trade. Ken Griffey Jr. and various other Reds may be in play too.
Five articles referenced Dunn this morning. The Newark Star-Ledger contains just one sentence:
"The Cincinnati Reds, who could be in position to trade reliever David Weathers and slugger Adam Dunn, had a scout at the [Yankees-Diamondbacks] game."
One imagines the Yankees may like a number of additional Reds, including Griffey and Mike Stanton. But the Weathers/Dunn speculation is the most reasonable. The Reds, by the way, have yet to approach Junior about any possible trades. While we know Griffey would probably approve a trade to Atlanta, some real creativity would be required with his contract. And he’d have to be open to playing left field. Buster Olney noted today that the White Sox have at least had internal discussions about acquiring Griffey.
The Dayton Daily News has the scoop on scouts from many teams in attendance at the Reds-Angels game last night: the Braves, Astros, Dodgers, White Sox, Tigers, and more. Actually the article references "Los Angeles" so that could be the Angels too. Any of these clubs could conceivably make room for Dunn. I imagine young pitching is the name of the game for Wayne Krivsky.
Besides the previously named players, Eddie Guardado, Scott Hatteberg, and Kyle Lohse could be on the market. The Reds have a $3MM option for ’08 on Guardado and a $1.85MM club option for ’08 on Hatteberg. Lohse, a Scott Boras client, reaches free agency after this season.