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Big Hype Prospects: Holliday, Caminero, Carter, Williams, Davis

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Due to travel, it’s been a little over a month since the last Big Hype Prospects. Let’s check in on who is making waves.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Jackson Holliday, 19, SS, BAL (A+)
(A/A+)158 PA, 6 HR, 11 SB, .394/.513/.701

Holliday’s introduction to professional baseball could not be more encouraging. He leads all qualified minor league hitters with a 222 wRC+. After wrecking Low-A pitching, he’s eviscerating High-A competition in the same manner. He evinces excellent plate discipline and a feel for stinging contact. His nearly .500 BABIP isn’t the product of luck – he’s simply outclassing the competition with an all-fields approach. If there’s a quibble, it’s that he rarely lofts the ball. Even so, that’s not affecting his power output – he has an excellent .300 ISO on the season.

To outside observers, Holliday is seemingly ready for a challenge at Double-A. It’s worth remembering he has just 93 plate appearances in High-A and a total of only 248 professional plate appearances. As long as the Orioles don’t believe he’s stagnating, a longer stint in High-A could prove appropriate. A stable environment helps with certain types of learning. On the other hand, we’re all eager to see what he does when finally challenged.

Junior Caminero, 19, 3B, TBR (A+)
146 PA, 11 HR, 2 SB, .351/.404/.709

I’ve put out a few calls for updated notes on Caminero since those I’ve gathered disagree about his future feel for contact. Presently, few hitters have shown comparable capacity for power. The folks at FanGraphs emphasized “his lack of ball/strike recognition” in a recent report, a concern shared by other evaluators. However, as others point out, such issues are hardly unprecedented among successful Major Leaguers. In this day and age, it’s not as if a 19-year-old slugger is incapable of making adjustments. It hasn’t been a problem in High-A because practically everything he hits is hammered. His .362 ISO ranks sixth in the minors. Double-A will mark an important challenge for Caminero.

Evan Carter, 20, OF, TEX (AA)
158 PA, 4 HR, 8 SB, .302/.430/.426

Carter can be a divisive prospect. It’s so easy to fall in love with the discipline and feel for contact. A Major League future feels inevitable. The floor for Carter is seemingly so high. Brandon Nimmo comps abound. All the same traits – even body type and line-drive-based power are there. It’s rare for prospect analysis to gush about a player’s floor, and perhaps that’s the problem with Carter. We’re usually focused on ceiling and, barring a change, Carter’s feels limited; like he’s on his way to becoming one of the best core contributors in the league. Will we find him on many All-Star teams? Probably not at his current power output.

The same point I made with Caminero applies to Carter. Never has it been easier for players to make positive adjustments to their game. Just because a prospect looks and feels like Brandon Nimmo doesn’t mean they’re destined to stay in their lane. Carter could follow the path of Lars Nootbaar to higher exit velocities. Or, like a different Cardinals outfielder, he could stall out against some aspect of Major League pitching.

Gavin Williams, 23, SP, CLE (AAA)
(AA/AAA) 40 IP, 12.6 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 1.58 ERA

A number of my favorite pitching prospects are in the Guardians system, and Williams is probably the best of the bunch. After three laser-sharp outings in Double-A, he was promoted to Triple-A where he’s remained effective. He worked 115 innings last season, so there is some scope for him to contribute in the Majors this season while managing his workload. However, the Guardians will soon welcome back Aaron Civale and Triston McKenzie. A near-term opportunity might not present itself. Williams features a four-pitch repertoire of upper-90s fastball, well-commanded slider, curve, and changeup. To my eyes, it looks as if he has sinking and riding fastballs – or perhaps the pitch behaved differently based on vertical location (I haven’t seen this mentioned in reports). Like most power pitchers, the changeup lags behind the other offerings, though it is viewed as a viable pitch with promise. The word “intensity” appears on multiple public reports.

Henry Davis, 23, C, PIT (AA)
141 PA, 10 HR, 5 SB, .297/.447/.631

Davis’ second tour in Double-A is going swimmingly. After a mere 97 wRC+ over a similar span last season, his current 189 wRC+ ranks sixth in the minors. He’s also showing the walk, strikeout, and contact rates of a future star. Davis was drafted as a slugging catcher who might eventually wind up at first base. As yet, the Pirates have mostly used him as a catcher this season with a few odd starts at designated hitter and right field. Davis has an extreme, pulled, fly ball approach which isn’t exactly suited to PNC Park. However, he has the raw power to make it work even if a few would-be dingers die on the warning track. It’s feeling increasingly probable we see both Davis and Endy Rodriguez in Pittsburgh later this summer – especially if the club can remain competitive in the standings.

Three More

Matt McLain, CIN (23): McLain was selected about a week ago after hitting .348/.474/.710 in Triple-A. In 22 plate appearances, he has 10 strikeouts and four hits. He’s struggled to make impactful contact after averaging 90.9-mph EV in Triple-A. McLain has a narrow window to impress Cincinnati decision-makers before the likes of Elly De La Cruz and others arrive on the scene.

Nolan Jones, COL (25): A post-hype prospect, Jones is a disciplined power hitter who has a bit of a Quad-A reputation at the moment. He’s producing a .362/.486/.723 line in a heady offensive environment with 90.5-mph average EV (113.7-mph Max EV). He’s splitting time between first base, third base, and right field – all positions the Rockies could stand to upgrade (at least indirectly).

Ethan Salas, SDP (16): As my favorite contact put it, “Salas is bound to be the first 16-year-old position player in a full-season league in a loooooong time.” The young catcher is already entering Top 100 lists.

Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to discuss corrections.

Reds’ Connor Overton To Undergo Elbow Surgery

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Reds righty Connor Overton had, who’s been out since mid-April due to an elbow strain, had a setback in his recovery and will undergo exploratory elbow surgery to determine the root of his troubles, manager David Bell announced to reporters Monday (Twitter link via Olivia Ray of WLWT Cincinnati). Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer further adds that the surgery could very well end the righty’s season.

Overton, 29, appeared in six games for the 2022 Reds (four starts) and posted a sharp 2.73 ERA in 33 innings of work. With just an 11.3% strikeout rate and a minuscule .204 batting average on balls in play contributing to that mark, Overton never seemed likely to sustain that level of success, but he regressed far more precipitously than the Reds had anticipated through his first three starts of the current campaign.

While Overton’s velocity remained consistent with its 2022 levels, he was clobbered for 14 runs on 19 hits (three of them homers) and seven walks in just 11 innings of work. Overton actually improved his strikeout rate a bit (to 16.4%) and more than doubled his swinging-strike rate (from 6% to 12.5%), but his elbow barked after just three starts and he’ll now face a lengthy absence.

Originally a 15th-round selection by the Marlins in the 2014 draft, Overton bounced around the league on a series of minor league deals and also played with the independent Lancaster Barnstormers before landing with the Reds, his sixth affiliated organization, prior to the 2022 season. He’s posted sharp numbers in the upper minors — 2.45 ERA, 24.6% strikeout rate, 5.4% walk rate in 91 Triple-A innings — but has yet to find much in the way of big league success. In 59 1/3 Major League innings between the Blue Jays, Pirates and Reds, he has a 4.85 ERA with a 15.7% strikeout rate and 9.5% walk rate. He’ll accrue big league service and pay while on the injured list, though his chances of lasting the entire 2023-24 offseason on Cincinnati’s 40-man roster take a big hit with news of this surgery.

Overton likely would’ve gotten a lengthier look in a rotation audition this season, but he’s now out of the picture for the foreseeable future. Cincinnati also subtracted veteran righty Luis Cessa from that mix when they released him last week. Overton joins lefty Nick Lodolo on the injured list, though Lodolo, who has a stress reaction in his tibia, isn’t looking at nearly as long an absence. The Reds are currently utilizing Hunter Greene, Graham Ashcraft, rookie Brandon Williamson, journeyman Ben Lively and veteran offseason pickup Luke Weaver in the rotation. Top prospect Andrew Abbott, who’s fanned 45.3% of his opponents between Double-A and Triple-A, could get a look at some point this summer as well.

Reds Notes: Friedl, Cruz, Ramos, Votto

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TJ Friedl was (retroactively) placed on the 10-day injured list with a left oblique strain on May 12, and the thought at the time was that Friedl might only miss the minimum 10 days, given that the Reds were somewhat on the fence about whether or not to even place him on the IL.  As it turns out, Friedl might indeed be back quickly, as manager David Bell told reporters (including the Cincinnati Enquirer’s duo of Charlie Goldsmith and Bobby Nightengale) that Friedl will take live batting practice on Monday, and could be activated from the IL for Tuesday’s game if all goes well following the BP session.

It’s a relief on a few levels for Friedl and the Reds, since even minor oblique injuries can linger for weeks on end, and because Friedl has been a big part of Cincinnati’s lineup.  More or less alternating between center and left field, Friedl leads the Reds with 1.2 fWAR, owing to his overall contribution as a defender, baserunner, and hitter.  Friedl has hit .306/.351/.468 with three homers over 138 plate appearances, albeit with some good fortune — the outfielder has a .376 BABIP, and his .354 wOBA is far greater than his .283 xwOBA.

Fernando Cruz might also be nearing a return, as the right-hander started a Triple-A rehab assignment today.  Cruz has missed the last three weeks due to a shoulder strain, and the team’s plan is to give him three rehab outings before potentially reinstating him from the 15-day injured list next week.  Cruz had a 6.59 ERA over 13 2/3 relief innings before hitting the IL, though the last 2 2/3 of those innings (and three of Cruz’s 10 earned runs allowed) came after Cruz said he started to feel discomfort in his throwing shoulder.

The Reds placed Henry Ramos on the 10-day IL yesterday due to a right hip strain, and Bell said that Ramos will receive an MRI on Monday.  Friedl’s impending return means that Cincinnati probably won’t be shorthanded in the outfield for too long, but the MRI should reveal how long Ramos might be out of action.

Joey Votto has yet to play this season, but the longtime Reds star might be a bit closer to a return, as he participated in live batting practice with the Reds’ Triple-A club in Louisville today.  Votto will be re-evaluated tomorrow as the Reds try to determine whether or not the first baseman might be able to restart his rehab assignment.

After undergoing season-ending rotator cuff and bicep surgery last August, Votto has been taking a cautious path, as his recovery process delayed his Spring Training work.  Votto began the season on the 10-day injured list but played 10 games during a Triple-A rehab assignment in April before the assignment was paused, as Votto wasn’t nearly ready to return before the end of his 20-day rehab window.  After another month of treatment and ramping up his baseball activities, Votto now looks like he might be able to take the field again in Louisville.  The Reds moved Votto to the 60-day IL, so he isn’t eligible to return until the end of May anyway, though he will surely take longer than that to get fully ready.

Reds Place Henry Ramos, Derek Law On Injured List

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The Reds have placed two players on the injured list in as many days, with outfielder Henry Ramos hitting the 10-day IL today due to a right hip strain.  This move comes on the heels of Derek Law being placed on the 15-day IL yesterday (retroactive to May 17) with a sprain in his right elbow.  Right-hander Alan Busenitz was called up from Triple-A to replace Law, while outfielder Will Benson was called up to take Ramos’ spot.

Cincinnati signed Ramos to a minor league deal in January, and brought Ramos up to the active roster near the end of April.  This represented Ramos’ second look in the Show after he debuted with 18 games with the Diamondbacks in 2021, and he has matched that total with 18 more games for the Reds this year.  Ramos has hit .242/.356/.306 over 73 plate appearances for the Reds, cooling off after a hot start that saw him collect nine hits and six runs in his first 26 PA.

The switch-hitting Ramos has played mostly as a right fielder and designated hitter this year.  Between Ramos’ absence and TJ Friedl’s recent IL placement with an oblique strain, Cincinnati is a little short on outfield help, but Benson will get another chance to show what he can do at the MLB level.  Benson has only a .370 OPS over 82 career PA with the Reds and Guardians, and the former 14th overall pick (for Cleveland in 2016) performed very well for the Guards’ Triple-A affiliate in 2021.

Law ranks second on the Reds with 20 appearances this season, delivering a quality 2.57 ERA despite a very high 14.3% walk rate.  The Reds first signed Law to a minor league deal last August, and then non-tendered him during the offseason before re-signing him to another minors deal.  Manager David Bell told the Cincinnati Enquirer’s Charlie Goldsmith and other reporters that the “pretty good news” is that Law has seemingly avoided a serious injury, as the veteran righty has a relatively minor flexor mass strain and will be re-evaluated in 10 days.

Reds Sign Ryan Meisinger To Minor League Deal

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The Reds have signed right-hander Ryan Meisinger to a minor league deal, according to his transactions tracker at MLB.com. He’s been assigned to the Double-A Chattanooga Lookouts.

Meisinger, 29, was an 11th round selection of the Orioles in the 2015 draft and worked his way up to the majors with that club in 2018. He has 31 innings of major league experience to this point, spread between the Orioles, Cardinals and Cubs. He posted a 7.26 ERA in that time with a 21.7% strikeout rate, 13.8% walk rate and 37.6% ground ball rate.

Last year, Meisinger signed a minor league deal with the Diamondbacks but was released after posting a 6.14 ERA in 14 2/3 Triple-A innings. He then signed with the Long Island Ducks of the independent Atlantic League, registering a 7.06 ERA in 43 1/3 innings for them.

The righty hasn’t had much recent success but has decent Triple-A numbers in his career overall. Across parts of four seasons, he has a 3.37 ERA in 117 2/3 innings at that level, striking out 30.3% of batters faced while walking 9.1%.

The Reds have a bunch of relievers on the injured list right now, with Tejay Antone, Fernando Cruz, Casey Legumina, Reiver Sanmartin and Tony Santillan all out of action. Meisinger will look to position himself to get the call when a fresh arm is needed. If he gets a spot on the 40-man, he has a couple of options and less than a year of service time, meaning he would provide the Reds with a good deal of roster flexibility and cheap control.

Reds Sign Alec Mills To Minor League Deal

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The Reds have signed right-hander Alec Mills to a minor league deal, according to his transactions tracker at MLB.com. He’s been assigned to the club’s Complex League team for now, where he will presumably build up before joining an affiliate in the upper levels of the club’s farm system.

Mills, 31, spent 2018 to 2022 with the Cubs, serving as a frequently-optioned depth starter in the first few of those seasons. By the end of 2019, he had tossed 57 1/3 innings with a 3.77 ERA. He was out of options going into 2020 and held his roster spot all year, posting a 4.48 ERA over 11 starts, which the obvious highlight being a the no-hitter he tossed in September.

Since then, however, he’s had some challenges. He dealt with ongoing back issues throughout 2021 and 2022, posting a combined 5.66 ERA in 136 2/3 innings over those two campaigns. After a couple of years of migrating on and off the injured list, he eventually underwent back surgery in September of last year. All told, he currently has a career 4.95 ERA in 256 1/3 career innings with a 19.5% strikeout rate, 7.2% walk rate and 48.5% ground ball rate.

Mills crossed three years of service time last year and would have been eligible for arbitration for the first time this past offseason, but the Cubs outrighted him off the roster instead. He lingered on the open market all winter but now has a new club.

The Reds have plenty of need for starting pitching, as they recently released Luis Cessa while Nick Lodolo, Justin Dunn, Vladimir Gutierrez and Connor Overton are all on the injured list. That leaves the current rotation as Hunter Greene, Graham Ashcraft, Brandon Williamson, Ben Lively and Luke Weaver. Williamson was just called up and looked good but in just one start so far. Lively has made a couple of relief appearances this year but will take the ball tomorrow, which will be his first start in the majors since 2018. Weaver, meanwhile, has a 6.26 ERA through his five starts this season.

The club has some intriguing pitchers in Triple-A, such as Levi Stoudt and Andrew Abbott, but is currently running with a group in the big leagues that has plenty of uncertainty in it. Mills will likely need some time to build up strength after last year’s surgery and missing Spring Training, but he could bolster the club’s rotation depth once he gets stretched out. If he can put the back issues behind him and return to the big leagues, he’ll be out of options but could be kept around beyond this season if the Reds so choose. He currently has three years and 97 days of service time and could be retained via arbitration until he crosses the six-year mark.

MLB Trade Rumors Podcast: The Cardinals’ Contreras U-Turn, Mitch Keller’s Breakout, The Padres

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Episode 7 of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Simon Hampton is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss:

  • The Cardinals’ U-turn on having Willson Contreras catch (4:22)
  • Mitch Keller’s breakout season with the Pirates, and whether he can be their ace moving forward (10:32)
  • When can Reds fans expect to see Elly De La Cruz in the big leagues? (17:09)
  • Eduardo Rodriguez’ form for the Tigers, and whether Detroit can contend this season (20:56)
  • The Padres’ slow start to the season (25:34)

Check out our past episodes!

Nick Lodolo Diagnosed With Stress Reaction In Tibia

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Reds starter Nick Lodolo was diagnosed with a stress reaction in his left tibia earlier this week, writes Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer. He’ll be in a walking boot and go for another MRI in a couple weeks.

Lodolo was already placed on the 15-day injured list over the weekend. At the time, the club announced his injury as calf tendinitis. The Reds provided a one-month return timetable on Sunday, though it seems likely the revelation of the stress reaction will delay his return further. Manager David Bell told the club’s beat a more definitive recovery timeline won’t be clear until Lodolo’s follow-up imaging two weeks from now.

The 25-year-old southpaw is among the most important players in the organization. Lodolo and fellow top prospect Hunter Greene both made the season-opening rotation in 2022. Each impressed as rookies, enough so in Greene’s case the Reds signed him to the second-largest extension for a pitcher with between one and two years of major league service. Lodolo hasn’t inked the same kind of deal, though his camp reportedly had some conversations with Cincinnati brass about that possibility last month.

It had been a mixed season for Lodolo even prior to the injury. He’s been tagged for a 6.29 ERA over 34 1/3 innings through his first seven starts. That’s largely attributable to a staggering 10 home runs allowed (2.62 HR/9). The home run ball wasn’t an issue for Lodolo during his debut season, though, and he’s shown strong strikeout and walk numbers during year two. The TCU product has fanned 28.3% of opponents behind a strong 12.9% swinging strike percentage while cutting his walk rate from 8.8% to 6%.

Lodolo, Greene and Graham Ashcraft had been locked into rotation spots if healthy. With Lodolo out for a notable chunk of time, Cincinnati called up Brandon Williamson to make his MLB debut yesterday. Lodolo’s college teammate fared well in his first start, throwing 5 2/3 innings of one-run ball at Coors Field. Nightengale writes that Williamson is expected to remain in the rotation, joining Greene, Ashcraft and Luke Weaver.

For the fifth spot, the Reds appear likely to turn to righty Ben Lively. The 31-year-old has come out of the bullpen twice, combining for 5 1/3 frames, since being selected to replace Luis Cessa on the roster a little over a week ago. Nightengale writes that Lively will get the start on Friday against the Yankees, pushing him into the role he manned for Triple-A Louisville. He’d started four of five appearances with the Bats, working to a 2.33 ERA despite a middling 15.2% strikeout rate. His start will be his first at the big league level since 2018, when he took the ball five times for the Phillies.

Reds Release Luis Cessa

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The Reds have released right-hander Luis Cessa following last week’s DFA, per C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic (Twitter link). The 31-year-old righty will now be free to sign with any club.

Cessa pitched 26 innings with the Reds this season and was tagged for 26 earned runs on the strength of 46 hits and 12 walks. He generally kept the ball in the yard — just three of those 46 knocks were home runs (1.04 HR/9) — but Cessa also only managed 11 strikeouts in his seven appearances (six starts). A .410 average on balls in play and 60.2% strand rate surely contributed to Cessa’s disastrous ERA, but he was also too hittable and didn’t miss anywhere close to even a league-average number of bats.

Cessa has spent the majority of his career working out of the bullpen, though he started 10 games for Cincinnati in 2022 and posted a 4.30 ERA — albeit with less-encouraging peripheral marks (5.02 FIP, 17.1% strikeout rate, 7.7% walk rate, 1.64 HR/9 mark). In 160 1/3 career innings out of the rotation, Cessa has a 5.44 ERA, but he’s been a solid multi-inning reliever — evidenced by a lifetime 3.81 ERA, 4.35  FIP, 19.9% strikeout rate and 8.1% walk rate out of the bullpen.

Cincinnati originally acquired Cessa alongside lefty Justin Wilson at the 2021 trade deadline, sending a player to be named later (Jason Parker) to the Yankees in that swap. Injuries have already forced the 25-year-old Parker out of the game; he underwent Tommy John surgery in 2021 and reinjured his elbow the following season before calling it quits earlier this year, per Brian North of WTCI Channel 12 News. Wilson pitched just 19 2/3 innings with the Reds before his own Tommy John surgery. Cessa was the lone member of that three-player swap who remained healthy and, until this season, had given the Reds a good bit of value (3.95 ERA in 107 innings from 2021-22).

The Reds and Cessa avoided arbitration this past offseason by agreeing to a one-year, $2.65MM deal for the 2023 campaign. That was slated to be his final season of arbitration eligibility before reaching free agency. Now that he’s been released, Cincinnati will be on the hook for the remainder of that sum, with a new team only owing Cessa the prorated portion of the league minimum for any time he spends on the big league roster. That amount would be subtracted from what the Reds still owe the veteran righty.

Reds To Recall Brandon Williamson

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The Reds will call up pitching prospect Brandon Williamson for his major league debut tomorrow, tweets Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer. Cincinnati is still deciding whether to start him or deploy him following an opener, but he’ll make his major league debut in Colorado.

Williamson is already on the 40-man roster. Cincinnati selected his contract last offseason to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft. He’s spent the 2023 campaign on optional assignment to Triple-A Louisville. He joined the taxi squad earlier today and will formally get his first major league call tomorrow. Cincinnati will need to make a 26-man roster move to accommodate his promotion.

The 6’6″ southpaw entered the professional ranks in 2019. The Mariners selected him in the second round out of TCU. Williamson showed intriguing stuff and racked up huge strikeout tallies up through Double-A over his first couple pro seasons. Heading into 2022, Baseball America named him the sport’s #83 overall minor league talent and called him a potential mid-rotation arm. Coming out of the lockout, the Reds acquired him as the top prospect in their return for Jesse Winker in the trade that saw Seattle absorb the final three years of the Eugenio Suárez contract.

Since landing with the Reds, Williamson has seen his prospect stock back up a little bit. He’s struggled to throw strikes and seen his swing-and-miss numbers dip against upper minors hitters. Williamson combined for a 4.11 ERA in 122 2/3 innings between Double-A and Triple-A last year. He dropped off BA’s top 100, falling to tenth in the Cincinnati farm system in their estimation. The outlet suggested he looked more like a back-of-the-rotation type as his fastball velocity dipped into the lower 90s.

He’s had a tough beginning to the season in Louisville. Over eight starts, Williamson has allowed a 6.62 ERA in 34 innings. His 16.4% strikeout rate is the lowest of his professional career, while he’s still walking batters at an elevated 12.1% clip. He’s allowed just four runs in a combined 11 2/3 frames over his last two appearances, however. That’s enough for Cincinnati to give him a look at the back of a beleaguered major league rotation.

The Reds are expected to be without Nick Lodolo for a month due to a calf injury. They also recently designated struggling starter Luis Cessa for assignment, subtracting two members from their starting five. Hunter Greene, Graham Ashcraft and Luke Weaver are the only three pitchers with guaranteed rotation spots. Williamson should have a path to carving out a role if he performs well.

Cincinnati promoted another of its better prospects, middle infielder Matt McLain, for tonight’s game against the Rockies. Reds’ fans will get to see successive major league debuts on consecutive days as the front office starts to get looks at players it hopes can be pieces of a more competitive future. Cincinnati’s 18-22 start is enough to keep them within range of a weak NL Central thus far, but they’re not likely to hang in the divisional picture for a full season with their current rotation.

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