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Trade Interest In Justin Smoak Escalating

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Trade interest in Blue Jays first baseman Justin Smoak is “picking up,” tweets Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet. MLB Network’s Jon Heyman connected the Indians to Smoak earlier today, and Nicholson-Smith adds the Rays as a team of interest as well. Several contenders have expressed interest in Smoak, per Nicholson-Smith. Notably, he’s not in the lineup tonight for the Blue Jays.

Toronto has been one of the few clear sellers on the summer market, having already departed with Marcus Stroman and David Phelps in the past 48 hours. The 32-year-old Smoak, a free agent following the 2019 season, is a logical player to deal away, too, even if the return on him doesn’t prove overwhelming. Smoak won’t be a candidate to receive a qualifying offer, so there’s added incentive to take the most appealing option presented between now and tomorrow afternoon’s trade deadline.

The switch-hitting Smoak’s batting average is down this season, but he’s walking at a career-best 16.7 percent clip and once again demonstrating above-average power. In 359 plate appearances, he’s hit .215/.357/.427 — good for a 110 OPS+ and a 108 wRC+ (which is to say he’s been about eight to ten percent better than league average from an offensive standpoint, even after accounting for his hitter-friendly home park). Smoak’s 19.8 percent strikeout rate is actually the lowest of his career, and he’s not popping up at an exorbitant level either. Rather, the key to his diminished average could be a fluky .220 average on balls in play (which checks in well south of his career .267 level).

Smoak is earning a reasonable $8MM salary in 2019 with about $2.71MM of that sum yet to be paid out between now and season’s end. With the Jays dealing away short-term assets, it seems likely that Smoak will be wearing a new uniform this time tomorrow.

Indians To Activate Danny Salazar

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The Indians will activate right-hander Danny Salazar from the 60-day injured list prior to Thursday’s contest, manager Terry Francona announced to reporters (Twitter link via Mandy Bell of MLB.com). Salazar, who is currently stretched out to about 70 pitches, will start that game and be followed by righty Adam Plutko if necessary. Cleveland will need to make a 40-man roster move to open a spot for Salazar.

Thursday will mark the first time Salazar has set foot on a big league mound in nearly two years. The talent possessed by the oft-injured righty is obvious, but shoulder troubles that ultimately necessitated surgery have put his career on hold for nearly 24 months. Salazar posted mixed results in that 2017 season, logging a pedestrian 4.28 ERA but averaging 12.7 K/9 in that 2017 season. From 2015-16, he notched a 3.63 ERA with 9.9 K/9 against 3.3 BB/9 in 322 1/3 innings.

Now 29 years old, Salazar returns to the Cleveland pitching staff as an x-factor. He long stood out as a potential top-of-the-rotation arm with the Indians, as many believed him just an adjustment or two away from elevating his performance to another tier. At the same time, given that he’s dealt with shoulder and elbow troubles dating back to the 2016 season, it’d be unrealistic to expect that Salazar simply bounces right back to form and locks down a spot in the Cleveland rotation. While such an outcome is a best-case scenario, banking on him doing so is rather ambitious after such a lengthy injury absence. There’s been prior talk of using Salazar in the bullpen as well, and that could eventually emerge as an option the organization chooses to explore.

The Indians have trimmed the Twins’ lead in the division back to two games, though Cleveland faces an imposing stretch on the schedule beginning tonight. They’re set to begin a three-game set against the Astros before moving onto series against the Angels, Rangers, Twins, Red Sox and Yankees in succession.

Salazar’s return comes at a pivotal time for the Indians, as they’ve reportedly been mulling trade offers for Trevor Bauer even as they climb back into the AL Central race. As the Indians determine precisely which course to chart with regard to Bauer, they’ll also be closely monitoring the status of two-time Cy Young winner Corey Kluber. Out for two-plus months due to a forearm fracture, Kluber is set to throw a simulated game this weekend (Twitter link via Ryan Lewis of the Akron Beacon-Journal). He could then progress to pitching in an actual game setting, though that next step will be dependent on how he feels following this weekend’s session.

Indians Showing Interest In Justin Smoak, Nicholas Castellanos

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10:19am: Tigers outfielder Nicholas Castellanos is also a possible target for the Indians, per MLB.com’s Jon Morosi (via Twitter). It is not clear from the report whether the teams are engaged in talks.

9:38am: The Indians are “among [the] teams looking at” Blue Jays first baseman Justin Smoak, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). Smoak, a switch-hitter, is earning $8MM this year before reaching free agency at season’s end.

It’s not surprising to see the Cleveland organization exploring possible offensive-oriented additions. The club has received a big contribution from Carlos Santana at first base, but hasn’t settled on a steady designated hitter.

Plugging in the 32-year-old Smoak would make for a nice lineup boost for the Indians. Smoak is slashing .215/.357/.427 this year with 18 long balls in 359 plate appearances. That’s shy of his output in the preceding two seasons, but still handily above-average production.

No doubt the Indians also see a bit of an opportunity to buy low on a player that may not draw much demand elsewhere, due in no small part to the lack of American League buyers and his defensive limitations. Smoak is drawing walks at a hefty rate (16.7%) and seems rather unfortunate to carry only a .220 batting average on balls in play. Statcast credits him with a big .388 xwOBA based upon the quality of contact he has made, which is much higher than his .342 wOBA.

Even as the Indians consider scenarios in which they’d part with starter Trevor Bauer, they’re hardly looking at a sell-off. The club weathered a tough start to the season and presently sits just two games back of the Twins.

Rays, Indians Interested In Domingo Santana

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Domingo Santana has been drawing some attention as the trade deadline approaches, and MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link) reports that the Rays and Indians are two of the teams showing some interest in the Mariners outfielder.

Santana has rebounded from a down year in 2018 to hit .273/.342/.475 over 446 plate appearances for the Mariners, and he recorded his 20th homer of the season in today’s 3-2 win over the Tigers.  Despite the impressive 120 wRC+, however, Santana has also struck out a league-high 135 times, and is a significant defensive liability as a corner outfielder.

The lack of glovework is particularly ill-suited to a Tampa Bay team that prioritizes defensive versatility, particularly since Tommy Pham and Austin Meadows have been so productive as the regular corner outfielders.  That said, the Rays may simply be willing to overlook Santana’s defensive shortcomings in the name of getting some extra pop in their lineup, which is middle-of-the-pack is most offensive categories leaguewide.  Santana and Meadows could more or less split the right field and DH duties, with prospect Nate Lowe perhaps returning to the minors until rosters expand in September.  It isn’t a perfect fit, on paper, though Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto and Rays GM Erik Neander have been such frequent trading partners that it isn’t a shock to see Tampa linked to any potentially-available Seattle player.

The Indians also aren’t strangers to trading with the Mariners, as they joined with the Rays for last December’s three-team that saw Carlos Santana go to Cleveland and Edwin Encarnacion to Seattle.  As with the Rays, Santana would give the Tribe’s offense a shot in the arm, especially since Cleveland is still looking for some consistent production from its outfield.  Rookie Oscar Mercado has solidified center field, and Tyler Naquin and Jordan Luplow have both hit well in limited action, though adding Santana as an outfielder/DH would certainly help matters.  Of particular note, Santana’s right-handed bat would greatly help a lineup that hasn’t done much damage against lefty pitching this season.

Santana’s struggles with the Brewers last year led to his modest $1.95MM 2019 salary in his first year of arbitration, so even though he’ll undoubtedly get a big raise this winter, he won’t earn enough to break the bank for the low-payroll Rays or Indians.  Since Santana has two-plus remaining years of control, of course, Seattle will be looking for a quality return in any trade.

Indians Acquire Hunter Wood, Christian Arroyo

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6:41PM: The two teams have officially announced the trade.  Jefry Rodriguez will move to the Indians’ 60-day injured list to create roster space.  The Rays will get $250K in international bonus funds, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand tweets.

5:16PM: The Indians have acquired right-hander Hunter Wood and infielder Christian Arroyo from the Rays in exchange for minor league outfielder Ruben Cardenas and some international signing money.  Yahoo Sports’ Tim Brown (Twitter link) was the first to report that Wood was being dealt to Cleveland, while Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (via Twitter) added the other particulars of the swap.

Wood, who turns 26 next month, has a 2.48 ERA, 7.4 K/9, and 3.43 K/BB rate over 29 innings for the Rays this season.  ERA predictors such as FIP (4.19), xFIP (5.10) and SIERA (4.52) are much less impressed with Wood’s work, perhaps due to his lack of strikeouts and large amount of fly balls generated, as Wood has only a 29.4% grounder rate.  On the plus side, Wood is allowing less hard contract and issuing fewer walks than he did in his 2018 rookie season.  While not a premium reliever, he’ll add even more depth to a Tribe bullpen that is already one of the game’s best.

As a young arm controlled through the 2024 season, Wood isn’t an insubstantial piece for the Rays to be giving up, particularly to a Cleveland team who is currently battling Tampa for a wild card position.  Still, the Rays had to open up a 40-man roster spot for the newly-acquired Eric Sogard, and Wood wasn’t a critical member of the relief corps.  The righty was one of several members of the Tampa-to-Durham taxi squad over the last two seasons, as the Rays frequently shuffled pitchers back and forth between the majors and Triple-A.

Sogard’s arrival makes Arroyo even more expendable, as Arroyo already wasn’t going to be a factor for Tampa until mid-August due to a 60-day injured list placement due to forearm tendinitis.  It wasn’t long ago that Arroyo was ranked as one of the more highly-touted prospects in the sport — MLB.com ranked Arroyo within their top-90 prospect list every year from 2016-18, topping out at 81st prior to the 2018 season.

Originally drafted 25th overall by the Giants in 2013, Arroyo was the centerpiece of the prospect package sent from San Francisco to Tampa in the 2017-18 offseason for Evan Longoria.  Unfortunately for Arroyo and the Rays, his two seasons at Tropicana Field have been plagued with injuries, and he has appeared in just 16 games in a Rays uniform.  Arroyo is still only 24, and with only 251 career MLB plate appearances to go on, there’s still plenty of time for him to realize his potential.

Arroyo has played mostly second and third base in recent seasons after beginning his pro career as a shortstop, so the Indians have some flexibility in how they choose to deploy Arroyo at the big league level.  It could be that the Tribe simply uses Arroyo as a multi-position player, or they could direct him more specifically towards second base (if Jason Kipnis’ club option isn’t exercised for 2020, as expected), third base (if Jose Ramirez is moved back to second base to replace Kipnis) or potentially even shortstop, if Cleveland explores the big splash that would be a Francisco Lindor trade in the offseason.

Cardenas was a 16th-round pick for the Tribe in the 2018 draft.  The Cal State Fullerton product wasn’t ranked by MLB.com as a top-30 prospect in Cleveland’s system, though Cardenas is off to a nice start in his pro career, hitting .292/.366/.469 with 10 homers over 524 plate appearances.  He has spent all of this season at the Indians’ A-ball affiliate in Lake County.

Rangers Return Rule 5 Pick Kyle Dowdy To Indians

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The Rangers have returned right-handed pitcher Kyle Dowdy, who was chosen in December’s Rule 5 Draft, to the Indians, per a club announcement. He had been designated for assignment on Thursday and was offered to his original club after clearing waivers.

Originally chosen by the Mets in the Rule 5 Draft, Dowdy was subsequently claimed off waivers by the Rangers. Before landing on the injured list with an elbow impingement, he contributed 22 1/3 innings, including one start, for the Rangers, striking out 17 batters but walking 18.

Dowdy, 26, will return to the Indians organization and has been assigned to Double-A Akron.

Yu Chang Sparking Trade Interest

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While Noah Syndergaard, Zack Wheeler and Trevor Bauer may be dominating the headlines, numerous under-the-radar names are also being bandied about as the trade deadline approaches. We’ll round up a few here.

  • Unsurprisingly, the Padres have been getting calls on some of their top prospects. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports interest in infielder Luis Urias among teams who believe he can be a capable everyday shortstop. Urias has continued to play predominantly shortstop in the minors, but the position is obviously filled in Petco for the forseeable future by Fernando Tatis, Jr. Most public outlets believe second base to be a better fit for Urias regardless, but there’s little concern he can’t handle the increased offensive demands of the keystone. The 22 year-old is laying waste to the Triple-A Pacific Coast League and is a consensus top-50 prospect. While not necessarily related to any interest in Urias, Rosenthal further notes the Friars have been on the lookout for a left-handed bat to help balance their lineup.
  • Urias isn’t the only San Diego high-minors farmhand piquing interest. Amidst speculation about a three-team Syndergaard, Marcus Stroman trade, the San Diego Union-Tribune’s Kevin Acee tweets the Blue Jays have interest in Padres’ left-hander Adrian Morejon. The 20 year-old was a high-profile Cuban signee as an amateur and has flown through the minors. While he’s not likely a future ace and has a bit of a spotty injury history, Fangraphs’ Eric Longehagen and Kiley McDaniel note that Morejon’s stuff and command give him a chance to be a mid-rotation starter.
  • Speaking of the Jays, Rosenthal reports interest on an under-the-radar relief option. In addition to the commonly-speculated Ken Giles and Daniel Hudson, Rosenthal notes there have been some calls on right-hander Joe Biagini. The 29 year-old has a 3.42 ERA, 23.9% strikeout rate and 7.6% walk rate in 47 relief appearances. While he won’t be anyone’s headline acquisition, he also comes with three years of team control beyond this season at likely affordable rates.
  • The Padres aren’t the only team with a high-minors prospect sparking leaguewide demand. Cleveland infielder Yu Chang is drawing some calls, per Paul Hoynes of cleveland.com. Soon to turn 24, the Taiwnese infielder is a bat-first prospect who made his MLB debut this season but could have a hard time breaking into a loaded left side of the Cleveland infield. He’s slashing a solid, if unspectacular .273/.344/.448 this season in Triple-A.

Latest On Trevor Bauer

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It’s anyone’s guess whether the Indians will trade right-hander Trevor Bauer before Wednesday’s deadline. On one hand, he’s an integral piece of a surging team that has climbed to 62-42, putting the Tribe four up on the AL’s top wild-card spot and just one back of the division-leading Twins. On the other, the budget-conscious Indians would net an enticing return for Bauer, who’s on a $13MM salary and figures to earn a raise of $5MM or more to conclude his arbitration control next season. Even if the Indians decide to retain Bauer through this year, his time in Cleveland is nearing a conclusion. The 28-year-old “almost certainly” isn’t going to be on the Indians’ roster in 2020, Paul Hoynes of cleveland.com reports.

In the meantime, the Indians have a few days to choose how to proceed with Bauer this season. There’s already known to be plenty of interest in Bauer, but it seems two of the Indians’ AL rivals – the Yankees and Astros – are pursuing him with more vigor than anyone else. Those two clubs “keep inquiring about Bauer,” writes Hoynes, who adds the Indians have also discussed him with the Padres and Braves.

Among the Yankees, Astros, Padres and Braves, only San Diego isn’t an immediate contender. However, the club is known to like Bauer, whom it tried to acquire at the beginning of the season. Led by their collection of young talent, the Padres have made progress since then, and they’re aiming to make a more spirited run at a playoff berth next year. That’s evidenced by the club’s interest in Bauer and other established starters, including Tigers lefty Matthew Boyd and Mets righty Noah Syndergaard.

It would seem rather difficult for Cleveland to hand Bauer to New York or Houston, in part because the Indians could realistically wind up facing him as a Yankee or Astro in the postseason. Plus, considering Corey Kluber has been out since May 1 with a forearm fracture (and isn’t returning imminently) and Carlos Carrasco’s battling leukemia, the Indians arguably need Bauer more than ever.

Bauer not only leads the Indians’ staff in innings (152 1/3), but he paces the entire league in that department, and has logged a solid 3.49 ERA/4.19 FIP with 10.58 K/9 and 3.49 BB/9. All-Star MVP Shane Bieber is the lone Indians starter who has outperformed Bauer over the course of a full season in 2019. Mike Clevinger has been fantastic again, though he has only made nine starts. Another rookie, Zach Plesac, has joined Bieber in outdoing Bauer in ERA (3.10), but that figure looks like a house of cards when examining his fielding-independent pitching numbers. Meanwhile, Adam Plutko and the currently injured Jefry Rodriguez have managed back-end type of numbers over a combined 17 starts.

For now, the interest in Bauer may wind up going for naught. The Indians could prefer to hold Bauer and try to take another run at a championship as control over him and several other notables – most importantly, Francisco Lindor – dissipates. If the Indians elect against moving Bauer in the next few days, Hoynes suggests they’ll attempt to supplement their roster, perhaps by by adding relief and-or offensive help. Hoynes points to Rangers slugger Hunter Pence as “a possibility” for Cleveland, though it’s unclear if that’s speculation or if there’s real interest on the Tribe’s part.

Yankees Rumors: Bauer, Bumgarner, Syndergaard, Wheeler

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The Yankees and Twins, two American League powers, staged a memorable three-game battle in Minnesota this week. This round went to the Yankees, who took two of three in an offense-driven set that saw the Bombers live up to their name in outscoring the Twins 30-27.

While the Yankees are now a major league-best 66-35, they’re surely not thrilled with the way their somewhat maligned pitching staff performed against the high-powered Twins. Starters C.C. Sabathia, Domingo German and J.A. Happ were among Yankees hurlers who took beatings, which could intensify the club’s efforts to improve its rotation before the July 31 trade deadline. That remains general manager Brian Cashman’s primary focus, according to Bryan Hoch of MLB.com.

Over the past several weeks, the Yankees have been connected to just about every top starter potentially available – including the Indians’ Trevor Bauer, the Giants’ Madison Bumgarner, and the Mets’ Noah Syndergaard and Zack Wheeler.

Bauer is near the top of the Yankees’ wish list, per Hoch, who reports they “would love” to see Cleveland make him available. Indians general manager Mike Chernoff seemingly hasn’t closed the door on a Bauer trade, but parting with him would be an unexpected move from a Tribe team that has overcome a difficult start to climb into playoff position. The Indians are 59-42, two games up on the AL’s No. 1 wild-card spot and just two back of the Twins, thanks in part to Bauer. The 28-year-old has racked up a major league-high 152 1/3 innings of 3.49 ERA/4.19 FIP pitching with 10.58 K/9 against 3.49 BB/9.

Like Bauer, Bumgarner’s perhaps an indispensable piece to a team that has emerged as a playoff hopeful. Bumgarner looked like a surefire trade candidate all season until the red-hot Giants won 17 of 21 in recent weeks. They’re currently 52-51 and three back of a wild card. The future of Bumgarner, a Giants icon, looks much more up in the air as a result. Regardless, it doesn’t seem as if Bumgarner – who has the Yankees on his limited no-trade list – is New York’s preferred choice. “Yankees people are said to be less enthused with” Bumgarner than Bauer, Hoch writes.

Meanwhile, Hoch relays that the belief is the Mets are uninterested in dealing with the crosstown rival Yankees at all, no matter what they might offer for Syndergaard or Wheeler. That would be unfortunate for the Yankees, who may be the team with the most interest in Syndergaard and would reportedly be willing to trade their premier prospect, Deivi Garcia, for him. As a soon-to-be free agent who’s about to return from a multi-week absence stemming from a shoulder injury, Wheeler has far less trade value than Syndergaard. Andy Martino of SNY reported three weeks ago that the Mets were open to sending Wheeler – then healthy – to the Bronx, but that might not be the case after all.

Even if the Yankees don’t end up with Bauer, Bumgarner, Syndergaard or Wheeler, they do seem likely to strengthen their rotation this month. After Minnesota shredded its staff this week, New York’s starters rank a middling to worse 15th in ERA, 16th in fWAR and 21st in FIP. Nobody from the group has produced truly great numbers, either. Masahiro Tanaka, James Paxton and German have posted low-four ERAs with aligning peripherals, while Sabathia and Happ have performed like back-end options at best.

One would be remiss to ignore that the Yankees have gone without their ace – Luis Severino – all season because of shoulder and lat injuries. While the Yankees are hopeful the star righty will return in mid to late August, which could provide an enormous boost, it’s unknown whether Severino will be able to go full bore at any point this year. Cashman suggested two weeks ago that Severino could max out at 75 pitches or even work as a reliever. Severino’s ongoing absence has thrown a massive wrench in the Yankees’ plans this year, and it could have a big hand in the club landing an outside starter.

Oscar Mercado Has Helped Rescue Indians’ Season

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Cleveland came into 2019 as a three-time defending AL Central champion, but the club looked as if it was relinquishing its status as a powerhouse over the first couple months of the season. Owing partially to serious injuries or illnesses to starters Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco and Mike Clevinger, the Indians were a somewhat unthinkable 26-27 after a loss in Boston on May 27. At that point, 10 games back of the emergent Twins in their division, the Indians appeared to be on their way to serving as trade deadline sellers.

On May 14, two weeks before the Indians sunk below .500, they promoted outfielder Oscar Mercado from Triple-A Columbus. Now, over two months later, Mercado’s call-up stands out as a development that has helped key a turnaround. Even though they’re still without Kluber and Carrasco, the Indians have rallied to 58-41, two games up on the AL’s No. 1 wild-card spot and a surmountable three behind the Twins – whom they play 10 more times.

The 24-year-old Mercado is among the reasons there’s now a legitimate battle in the AL Central. He’s just under a year from joining the Indians, with the club having acquired him at last July’s trade deadline from the Cardinals. Mercado was then a solid prospect who was fresh off an effective Triple-A run with the Redbirds. His numbers declined when he transferred to the Tribe’s top affiliate after the trade, but Mercado came back with a vengeance this season. Before his promotion, Mercado slashed .294/.396/.496 (130 wRC+) with 15 extra-base hits (10 doubles, four home runs and a triple) and 14 stolen bases in 140 plate appearances.

When they summoned Mercado for his first big league experience, the Indians likely would have been thrilled with playable production – let alone above-average numbers. So far, they’ve gotten the latter. Across 230 trips to the plate, Mercado has batted .297/.350/.488 (117 wRC+), swatted eight homers with a respectable .191 ISO, and swiped nine bags on 11 tries. He has also essentially been a scratch defender in center, albeit over a small sample size, with 1 Defensive Runs Saved and a minus-1.5 Ultimate Zone Rating.

Back when Mercado joined the Indians, they were still clinging to hope that slumping veteran Leonys Martin would rebound. Martin, returning from the life-threatening bacterial infection he suffered in 2018, was the Indians’ Opening Day center fielder and their go-to choice there over the season’s first couple months. Finally, on June 22, the Indians decided Martin’s rope had run out. They designated him for assignment after Martin hit .199/.276/.343 (61 wRC+) with minus-0.6 fWAR in 264 trips to the plate.

The cutting of Martin, who’s now playing in Japan, officially opened the door for Mercado to assume the outfield’s most important position. Aside from a couple days in which Greg Allen has started at the position, it has belonged to Mercado almost exclusively. Overall, Mercado has been remarkably consistent. His wRC+ by month: 119 in May, 118 in June, 114 in July. The righty’s wRC+ against same-handed pitchers: 119. His wRC+ against lefties: 115.

If you’re looking for negatives, it’s obvious there is some good fortune propping up Mercado’s output. Although Mercado’s one of the game’s fastest players, a .335 batting average on balls in play could be difficult to uphold. And while Mercado’s only striking out at a 17.6 percent clip, he’s walking just 5.6 percent of the time. Statcast, meanwhile, paints somewhat of a bleak picture in regards to his production, placing Mercado in the league’s 39th percentile or worse in expected weighted on-base average (.322, compared to a .357 real wOBA), expected slugging percentage, exit velocity and hard-hit rate.

Even if Mercado regresses toward his xwOBA as the season moves along, he’d still qualify as an easy upgrade over Martin, who posted a .270 wOBA before the Tribe cut him. Thanks in part to what Mercado has done so far, the Indians’ outfield hasn’t been the massive question mark it was at the outset of the season. The Indians, set to begin life without Michael Brantley then, ran out an Opening Day outfield of Martin, Jake Bauers in left and Tyler Naquin in right. They’re now going with Mercado, a Bauers/Jordan Luplow platoon in left and Naquin at his season-opening spot on a regular basis.

Bauers has recently put up much better offensive totals than he did during a disastrous May; the righty-swinging Luplow has been a force against lefties throughout 2019; and Naquin has come back well from a pair of lost seasons at the MLB level. However, of the Indians’ main outfielders, it’s Mercado who has been their best. The rookie has played an important role in saving Cleveland’s season.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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