Indians’ Francona: “Lindor Not On Trading Block”
Indians’ manager Terry Francona spoke clearly and confidently during an appearance on MLB Network Radio’s Remember When (audio link). According to Francona, Francisco Lindor is not on the trading block.
“I can guarantee you we’re not trying to trade Lindor. We have him for two more years. Keeping him is everybody’s goal. Also know that keeping him and fielding a competitive team is a challenge in our market. There’s no getting around that. It’s not gonna be easy. I think that’s as honest as you can be.”
This jibes more-or-less with what we’ve been hearing out of Cleveland for most of the offseason. Still, Francona lends the message a certain gravitas. If the tone was more forceful, the content doesn’t differ all that significantly from the the equivocating trafficked by front offices. The Indians, like many teams, are in a position of financial maneuvering. The payroll limits imposed by ownership charge the baseball ops department to act creatively and consider options at which they’d otherwise scoff.
Doom and gloom aside, the Indians aren’t devoid of talent. Despite missing the playoffs in 2019 to a Twins team that’s continued their full court press this winter, the Indians are coming off their fourth consecutive 90-win season. They won just one less game in 2020 than in 2016, the year they won the pennant.
Players Avoiding Arbitration: American League
Entering the day, there were more than 150 players on the clock to exchange arbitration figures with their respective teams prior to a noon ET deadline. As one would expect, there’ll be an utter landslide of arbitration agreements in advance of that deadline. We already ran through some key facts and reminders on the arbitration process earlier this morning for those who are unfamiliar or simply need a refresher on one of MLB’s most complex idiosyncrasies, which will hopefully clear up many questions readers might have.
We’ll track the majority of the American League’s settlements in this post and split off a separate one for NL settlements as well. Note that all projections referenced come courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz:
- Newly acquired Angels righty Dylan Bundy receives a $5MM salary, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter links). He had projected at a $5.7MM price tag. Teammate Hansel Robles gets $3.85MM, per Heyman, just shy of his $4MM projection.
- The Yankees have worked out deals with all of their eligible players. The team has a hefty $8.5MM pact with Aaron Judge, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter). Backstop Gary Sanchez settled for $5MM, per Feinsand (via Twitter). The New York org will pay righty Luis Cessa $895K and Jonathan Holder $750K, Murray reports (Twitter links). Fellow reliever Tommy Kahnle will earn $2.65MM, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). And star lefty James Paxton has settled at $12.5MM, Heyman adds via Twitter. Chad Green and Jordan Montgomery have also agreed to terms, the former at $1.275MM and the latter at $805K, per Heyman (Twitter links).
- The Twins announced that they struck deals with Trevor May, Taylor Rogers, Eddie Rosario and Byron Buxton. Jon Heyman of MLB Network followed up with salary terms (all links to Twitter). May earns $2,205,000; Rogers takes home $4.45MM; Rosario lands at $7.75MM; and Buxton receives $3.075MM. While the first and last of those land rather close to the projected amount, Rogers got $550K more and Rosario got $1.15MM less than the calculators predicted.
- Shortstop Carlos Correa settled with the Astros for $8MM, per MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart (via Twitter). Righty Brad Peacock lands at a $3.9MM salary, per Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle (Twitter link). The former went for more than his $7.4MM projection, while the latter ended up shy of the $4.6MM mark produced by the computers. The ‘Stros also have agreed with closer Roberto Osuna as well, per an announcement. It’s a $10MM deal, slotting in just $200K shy of his projection, per Rome (via Twitter).
- The Orioles have a deal with outfielder/first baseman Trey Mancini, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com tweets. It’s for $4.75MM, per Dan Connolly of The Athletic (via Twitter), well south of the $5.7MM projection.
- Outfielder Jorge Soler has agreed to a $7.3MM deal with the Royals, MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan tweets. That’s well off of the $11.2MM that MLBTR’s model projected, though it is likely that the cause of the gulf lies in the interpretation of the correct baseline to start from in building Soler’s salary. He’s in the 4+ service class but had been playing on the original deal he signed out of Cuba.
- The Tigers have a deal in place with southpaw Matthew Boyd, per Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press (via Twitter). It’ll pay him $5.3MM, per Chris McCosky of the Detroit News (Twitter link). That falls comfortably below the $6.4MM, suggesting that Boyd’s camp was concerned with the way his suboptimal ERA would play in the arb process. Fellow lefty starter Daniel Norris will earn $2.96MM, McCosky tweets.
Earlier Settlements
Indians Avoid Arbitration With Francisco Lindor, Mike Clevinger
4:23pm: Mike Clevinger also has a deal with the Cleveland org, per Zack Meisel of The Athletic (via Twitter). It’s a $4.1MM deal, per Ryan Lewis of the Akron Beacon Journal (Twitter link).
Clevinger had projected for $400K more than the settlement point. As MLBTR’s Matt Swartz explained, there was a good argument for him to reach his $4.5MM projection. But the Indians were able to hold Clevinger to just under the amount secured by Kyle Hendricks in 2018.
1:48pm: The Indians have avoided arbitration with shortstop Francisco Lindor, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). He’ll reportedly earn $17.5MM in a deal that also includes some award incentives.
The arbitration model of MLBTR and Matt Swartz projected a $16.7MM salary for the still-youthful star. But it was an especially difficult number to gauge, as Matt explained in his recent look at Lindor’s arb case.
Interestingly, Matt had anticipated that his projection was a bit high. It turned out to be low. As he noted in that post, the difficulty was in sorting out how to handle the positional adjustment for Lindor. While recent raises for lumbering sluggers might have operated as caps for Lindor’s earnings, he obviously could and would have argued that his defensive proficiency should be weighed on the scale. The team obviously agreed — or, at least, felt there was a legitimate chance that an arbitrator would be swayed by such evidence.
This now makes for an important market marker to bear in mind in the future. Of course, it’s likelier to act as a ceiling unless a truly exceptional player comes along. Lindor, who just turned 26, swatted 32 home runs and slashed .284/.335/.518 in 654 plate appearances in 2019.
Antonetti Again Downplays Possibility Of Lindor Trade
Francisco Lindor sat atop the wishlist of many fans and front offices alike throughout the holiday season, as teams ranging from the Dodgers to the Reds to the Mets were all repeatedly reported to have interest in Lindor. However, Cleveland president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti has stated in the past that he expects Lindor to be his Opening Day shortstop, and he was emphatic in reiterating that belief in a conference call with reporters Wednesday afternoon (audio link).
“Yes, I still have every expectation that Francisco will be our shortstop Opening Day,” Antonetti said when asked about the persistent trade rumors surrounding Lindor. “I’m more confident today in saying that, as more of the offseason has passed, but that’s still our expectation. I’ve tried to be pretty consistent with this. I have never had a different expectation other than Francisco will be our shortstop Opening Day.”
Despite Antonetti’s public, straightforward stance, there’s nevertheless been plenty of reporting on clubs with interest and speculation on trade packages that could appeal to the Indians. Names like Gavin Lux, Dustin May, Nick Senzel and Jeff McNeil have been kicked about the rumor mill in various writings on Lindor, but Antonetti strongly suggested that he’s not the one initiating any talks on Lindor.
“I can’t control the conduct of other teams and them calling us with interest and wanting to explore things,” Antonetti continued. “As I’ve shared with you, we have a responsibility to be responsive to those teams when they engage with us. I can say that we’ve had conversations on the majority of our Major League roster and a bunch of players in our minor league system over the course of the offseason. The majority of those guys, with the exception of just a couple, are still with us.”
The Indians, of course, pulled the trigger on a Corey Kluber trade last month and have been widely reported to be aiming to scale back their payroll after reaching record levels on the heels of their 2016 World Series run. But Cleveland’s Opening Day payroll is projected to check in shy of $100MM — shy of $95MM if Jason Kipnis‘ buyout is counted against last year’s budget — placing them well south of their Opening Day marks in 2019 ($119MM), 2018 ($135MM) and 2017 ($124MM). As such, it’s unlikely that there’s any financial pressure to move Lindor and his projected $16.7MM salary (courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz).
Moreover, despite their trade of Kluber, the Indians aren’t embarking on any kind of rebuilding effort heading into 2020. They’re still intent on contending with the reigning AL Central champion Twins and the vastly improved White Sox as they look to take advantage of another year in which at least 40 percent of the division is rebuilding. Trading Lindor, even for a package of appealing MLB-ready talent, harms their chances of doing so.
It’s surely a frustrating carousel for Antonetti, as rumors of interest in Lindor won’t cease until Opening Day — and that will only bring a temporary reprieve. Even if Lindor remains with the club, he’ll surely be at least mentioned leading up to the July 31 trade deadline, even if the Indians are in the thick of the division race as most expect them to be. Reports of teams showing interest in Lindor and working to pry him from Cleveland’s grasp will persist, but Antonetti’s latest comments serve as yet another reminder that an actual trade involving the 26-year-old four-time All-Star isn’t especially likely.
Tigers Acquire Eric Haase, Designate Dario Agrazal
The Tigers announced today that they have acquired catcher Eric Haase from the Indians for cash considerations. To create roster space, they designated righty Dario Agrazal for assignment.
Haase was recently designated by the Cleveland organization, so it’s not surprising to see him change hands. The 27-year-old has seen brief MLB action in each of the past two seasons. He turned in a power-heavy .226/.315/.517 batting line with 28 home runs in 401 Triple-A plate appearances in 2019.
Agrazal is himself back in DFA limbo after the Pirates designated and traded him to Detroit back in November. The 24-year-old received a long look in 2019 but managed only a 4.91 ERA with 5.0 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 in his 73 1/3 frames.
Arbitration Breakdown: Mike Clevinger
Over the coming days, I am discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. So far, we’ve previewed Josh Bell, Cody Bellinger, Francisco Lindor and Jonathan Villar. For these pieces, I rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong. 2020 projections are available right here.
Indians right-hander Mike Clevinger only started 21 games in 2019, but when he was healthy, he was dominant. Despite being limited to 126 innings, the 29-year-old had a 13-4 record and 2.71 ERA with 169 strikeouts — all numbers that will factor strongly into his arbitration case. In his career, Clevinger already has a 41-21 record and a 3.20 ERA in 500 2/3 innings. My model projects him at $4.5MM the first time through arbitration, but finding comparables is tricky due to his missed time in his platform year.
To look for comparables, I focused on a rather narrow scope: first-time eligible pitchers in the past five years who pitched between 75 and 150 innings with a sub-4.00 ERA in their platform year and who had 35-plus career wins.
Gerrit Cole in 2017 and Kyle Hendricks in 2018 were the only two pitchers to match those specifications. The former got $3.75MM, and the latter got $4.18MM. Both of those pitchers only won seven games in their platform season, however. Cole did have 47 career wins, topping Clevinger’s 41, but his platform ERA of 3.88 is clearly worse than Clevinger’s 2.71. Hendricks is more comparable, with a robust 2.94 career ERA that is similar to Clevinger’s 3.20. Hendricks’ 38-22 record favorably compares to Clevinger’s 41-21 mark as well. Hendricks makes for a pretty good comp, and adding two years of inflation onto his first-time arbitration salary would probably put Clevinger right around the $4.5MM that the model projects for him.
Another potential comparable who had fewer career wins and a weaker platform season, but was otherwise fairly similar, is Jacob deGrom back in 2017. He went 7-8 with a 3.90 ERA in 148 innings in his platform year, but he had a 2.74 career ERA and a 30-22 record with 479 1/3 innings. DeGrom got $3.9MM his first time through arbitration. This is a likely floor for Clevinger—it seems clear that he should safely exceed $4MM.
What is tricky about first-time eligible pitchers is that for more than a decade, they have rarely broken the $4.5MM barrier. Three pitchers did as part of multi-year deals: Tim Lincecum in 2010, Clayton Kershaw in 2012, and Lance Lynn in 2015. However, Kershaw had a Cy Young Award on his resume, and Lincecum had two. Lynn was a unique multi-year deal that was extremely flat (three years, $22MM), so the $7MM attributed to the first year is not really a reliable number on which to base any Clevinger predictions. The only first-time eligible pitcher who signed a one-year deal worth more than $4.5MM was Dallas Keuchel, who landed a $7.25MM salary after earning a Cy Young Award.
All told, when you consider Clevinger being limited to 21 starts in 2019, he seems unlikely to be the one who breaks the $4.5MM barrier that has been so difficult for first-time pitchers to surpass. However, it also seems likely that he should hit Hendricks’ $4.18MM salary — and probably exceed it. Viewed through this lens, Clevinger appears likely to get close to his model-projected salary.
Arbitration Breakdown: Francisco Lindor
Over the coming days, I am discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong. 2020 projections are available right here.
Francisco Lindor enters his second year of arbitration eligibility coming off a $10.55MM salary in 2019, yet another solid campaign. Lindor hit .284 with 32 home runs and 74 runs batted in, stole 22 bases, and accumulated 654 plate appearances on the way to his fourth straight All-Star appearance and his second Gold Glove. My model projects Lindor earn $16.7MM, good for a $6.15MM raise.
It is very difficult to find comparable players for the talented shortstop. Looking for middle infielders from the past half-decade who hit 25 home runs going into their second year of eligibility provides only two names. Both players are second basemen and have much weaker cases than Lindor. In 2017, Jonathan Schoop batted .293 with 32 home runs and 105 runs batted in, stealing just a single base. The same year, Scooter Gennett hit .295 with 27 homers, 97 runs batted in and just three stolen bases. They got raises of $5.0 and $3.2 million, respectively. Considering Lindor stole way more stolen bases and plays a more premium position, he clearly has a better case. He should earn north of the $5MM raise that Schoop received three years ago.
Looking for a shortstop is clearly not a fruitful endeavor, though. The largest ever raise for a second-time-eligible shortstop was $2.83MM for Brandon Crawford in 2016. But he only hit .256, belted just 21 home runs, and stole a mere six bases. His case then was clearly inferior to Lindor’s now.
If we expand to look at other positions beyond the middle infield, some other potential names emerge. George Springer got a two-year deal when he had a similar .283/34/85 performance two seasons ago—although only with five stolen bases—but he had filed for a $6.6MM raise, while the Astros offered a $4.6MM increase. His two-year agreement probably assumes the midpoint. If nothing else, the $4.6MM figure is a floor if Schoop’s $5 million was not.
Justifying the model’s estimate of a $6.15MM raise is harder. But some of the players who have landed raises in that neighborhood had stronger performances. Khris Davis got a $5.5MM raise two years ago after belting 43 home runs and knocking in 110 runs. Davis hit at his standard .247 clip, but his power numbers may make him a ceiling for Lindor. Of course, the positional adjustment is hard. Marcell Ozuna picked up a $5.5MM raise in 2018, too, after he hit .312/37/124 as an outfielder. Still, one could argue that Lindor’s .284/32/74 line is inferior.
I think that somewhere between $5MM and $5.5MM is a reasonable guess for Lindor, which would put him around $15.5MM to $16MM. The model is clearly struggling to find where Lindor’s salary as is, just like we have done in this article, but I do think it landed high.
Angels Interested In Mike Clevinger
The Angels and Indians have discussed a trade involving right-hander Mike Clevinger, MLB.com’s Jon Paul Morosi reports. Talks between the two clubs have seemingly stalled, however, or at least “there has not been active dialogue in recent days,” as Morosi described the situation. It’s possible to imagine that negotiations may have not have gotten far at all, given how Morosi reports that the Indians’ first ask was top Angels prospect Jo Adell as well as another player.
Adell is a consensus top-five prospect in baseball, ranked #2 in the sport by both Baseball Prospectus and Baseball America, #3 by Fangraphs, and #5 by MLB Pipeline. This impressive set of ratings comes despite an abbreviated 2019 season for Adell, who was waylaid by ankle and hamstring injuries and limited to just 341 PA over 76 total games at three different minor league levels. Only 27 of those games came with the Triple-A Salt Lake Bees, and since Adell had only a .676 OPS over 132 PA for the Bees, the Angels could opt to give him a bit more seasoning time at Triple-A before summoning him to the big leagues (and of course, the team would gain an extra year of control over Adell by keeping him in the minors for at least a few weeks).
Still, Adell is expected to make his MLB debut in 2020 and could be counted on as an everyday player by season’s end. It has been widely speculated that the Halos will use 2019 breakout star Brian Goodwin in right field until Adell is ready for a promotion, and then Adell and Goodwin will, at worst, split duties for the remainder of the year. Should Adell make an immediate impact (or even if Goodwin matches his strong production from last season), the Angels promise to boast one of the league’s stronger outfields, assuming Justin Upton returns to good health and Mike Trout continues his Cooperstown-level domination of the sport.
With so much expected of Adell so soon, it isn’t surprising that the Angels balked at moving him in any trade demand, even for a pitcher like Clevinger. The 29-year-old righty has a 2.96 ERA, 3.13 K/BB rate, and 10.3 K/9 over 500 2/3 innings since the start of the 2017 season. Clevinger is controlled through the 2022 season and is projected to earn $4.5MM in his first year of arbitration eligibility; his initial arb salary would surely have been much higher were it not for a teres major muscle injury that cost him around two months of action last year.
Between Clevinger’s cost-controlled price tag and strong results on the mound, Cleveland has seemingly no immediate reason to move him for anything less than a huge return. The payroll-conscious Tribe has already moved Corey Kluber to the Rangers this offseason and might yet still trade Francisco Lindor, though those players are much more expensive and offer less years of control than Clevinger. In fact, despite Kluber’s salary and injury-plagued 2019, it’s fair to wonder whether the Indians would have moved the former Cy Young Award winner had it not been for the team’s comfort level in Clevinger as the new ace of their staff, not to mention the development of young arms Shane Bieber, Zach Plesac, and Aaron Civale.
The Padres and Dodgers have also had interest in Clevinger this offseason, and it’s probably safe to guess that any club in need of pitching has at least checked in with the Tribe to see if a deal could be found for Clevinger or perhaps any member of the impressive Cleveland rotation. The Angels have added Dylan Bundy and Julio Teheran to their starting five this offseason and will be getting Shohei Ohtani back from Tommy John surgery, though Anaheim still lags behind many contending teams in terms of both depth and frontline arms. Clevinger was actually picked by the Angels in the fourth round of the 2011 draft, but was sent to Cleveland in an August 2014 trade for reliever Vinnie Pestano.
Latest On Dodgers’ Interest In Mookie Betts
The Dodgers have been linked to several superstar players in both free agency and potential trades this winter, though with so many of the big free agents already signed elsewhere, the trade market might be Los Angeles’ best avenue to land a major roster upgrade. To this end, the Dodgers have continued to explore the possibility of acquiring Mookie Betts from the Red Sox, according to MLB.com’s Jon Paul Morosi.
The deal could potentially be expanded to involve multiple players heading from Boston to Chavez Ravine, as Morosi suggests that David Price might be a fit as the veteran arm the Dodgers are looking to add to their rotation. With the Red Sox looking to cut payroll and ideally get under the luxury tax threshold, rumors have swirled all winter about Price, Betts, and other high-priced Boston names being floated as trade chips. Betts is projected for a hefty $27.7MM salary in his final year of arbitration, though that’s certainly a reasonable price to pay (especially for a big-market team like the Dodgers) for one of the sport’s very best players.
As game-changing as the idea of a Betts trade may be, the Sox aren’t actively trying to deal him, since the club would naturally prefer to explore other cost-saving options before parting ways with the 2018 AL MVP. Moving Price and the $96MM owed to the southpaw through 2022 would be one of those preferred options. While the Sox have drummed up some trade interest in Price, however, it still seems unlikely that a suitor would take on most of that contract given Price’s age (34) and recent injury concerns.
Moving Betts along with Price would definitely make a trade suitors more willing to absorb perhaps even all of Price’s contract, though obviously the Red Sox aren’t willing to move Betts just for the sake of a salary dump. Indeed, Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom recently downplayed the idea of giving away any sort of younger talent along with Price, saying “so much of what we’re always going to be trying to accomplish, but certainly now, is to make sure we have as strong a farm system as possible.”
Morosi opines that the Red Sox would want one of the Dodgers’ top young pitchers (i.e. Dustin May or Tony Gonsolin) as part of a trade, though “Boston appears less insistent on” including infielder Gavin Lux as part of a trade package. It could be for this reason that L.A. is perhaps currently more focused on Betts than on Indians shortstop Francisco Lindor, another All-Star who has been heavily rumored to be on the Dodgers’ list of targets. The Lindor talks appear to be in something of a stalemate — Cleveland has continued to demand Lux in any deal for Lindor, while the Dodgers think so highly of Lux’s potential that they “have refused to include him in any offer for Lindor alone.” The Dodgers are also known to be pursuing Cleveland righty Mike Clevinger, so it’s safe to assume that some multi-player offers have been floated in the Tribe’s direction.
Indians Designate Eric Haase For Assignment
The Indians have designated catcher Eric Haase for assignment, the club announced. His roster spot was needed for César Hernández, whose one-year signing is now official.
Haase, who just turned 27, has only tallied 34 plate appearances at the game’s highest level. He spent nearly all of 2018-19 with the club’s Triple-A affiliate in Columbus, where he’s tallied nearly 900 plate appearances with a cumulative .232/.302/.479 slash with 49 home runs.
He’s carried that same high-strikeout, big power profile throughout his minor-league career. Coupled with a solid defensive reputation, that was enough to make him a decent prospect, as he twice finished among the back half of Cleveland’s top 31 farmhands at Baseball America.
Haase comes with all six seasons of team control and another option year, so it’s plausible some other club will give him a look. Numerous clubs could be in the market for catching help. Speculatively speaking, teams like the Tigers and Pirates could be in position to give playing time to a talented but unproven option in hopes of striking gold.