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Players Avoiding Arbitration: 1/11/18

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With tomorrow’s deadline for exchanging arbitration figures looming, arbitration agreements are likely to flow freely — particularly with a newly universal file-and-trial stance spurring things along. As always, MLBTR’s 2018 Arbitration Projections and 2018 MLB Arbitration Tracker are the places to go for more information. We’ll track today’s deals right here:

  • D-backs lefty Patrick Corbin has signed a one-year contract for the 2018 season, the club announced tonight. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets that Corbin, who will be a free agent next season, will earn $7.5MM in his final season of arbitration. That comes in shy of his $8.3MM projection, though it’s nonetheless nearly twice what he made in 2017 ($3.95MM).
  • The Blue Jays avoided arbitration with outfielder Ezequiel Carrera and lefty Aaron Loup, per Nightengale (Twitter links). Carrera’s $1.9MM salary matches his projection, while Loup’s $1.8125MM payday is slightly north of his own $1.8MM projection. Loup will be a free agent next winter, while Carrera is controlled through 2019.
  • Nightengale also tweets that Angels catcher Martin Maldonado has agreed to a $3.9MM salary for the upcoming season, meaning the reigning AL Gold Glove winner behind the dish rather handily trounced his $2.8MM projection. Maldonado, 31, is also entering his final year of team control and will be a free agent next winter.

Earlier Agreements

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Market Notes: Slow Offseason, Bruce, Giants, Cubs, Werth, K-Rod

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As the free agent market continues to plod along, observers have continued to search for explanations. Of course, it’s worth bearing in mind that we’ve been weighing this topic this since late November, when it was already apparent that there were some forces at play that were slowing down signings. The full story has yet to be told, and won’t be until the market resolves itself, but it’s still worthwhile to think about the potential causes and ramifications.

In one of his last posts for Fangraphs, Dave Cameron observes that a lack of parity — on paper, at least — may be one cause of the glacial pace of signings. With leading organizations perhaps preferring to wait to see how their needs develop, and their top pursuers left unsure whether even significant investments will be enough, the current competitive imbalance could be helping to slow the market, Cameron argues.

Let’s take a look at a few links as the hot stove perhaps begins to sputter to life:

  • Many others have also tackled the confounding nature of this year’s market in recent days. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic suggests there’s a “lack of engagement,” not just a lack of deals, in a report that indicates that some agents believe there may be a budding case for collusion. SB Nation’s Marc Normandin takes a historically oriented perspective, examining baseball’s history of collusive behavior and placing the currently stalled market in that context. SI’s Tom Verducci runs through the possible drivers of the slow-down. At Fangraphs, Travis Sawchik wonders if Boras’ approach still works, while Kiley McDaniel (welcome back!) examines the current state of teams’ efforts to find competitive advantage by allocating resources between scouting and analytics. (That last point ties into the view many have expressed that the slow market stems in part from an increasing convergence, as McDaniel terms it, in player valuations and strategies across organizations.)
  • The Giants’ top offer to Jay Bruce was at the three-year level but would have promised about $10MM less to him than the $39MM he ultimately scored from the Mets, according to reports from Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle (Twitter link) and Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). It seems that San Francisco was hoping to get some pop into the lineup at a bit of a discount, which is certainly understandable given the still-lengthy list of potential targets available in free agency and on the trade market. One additional name that has long been linked to the Giants, Andrew McCutchen of the Pirates, remains of interest, Nightengale further notes. There’s also a case to be made that the Giants ought to take the opportunity presented by the slow market development while forgetting about the luxury tax line this year, as Andrew Baggarly writes for The Athletic. Of course, that’s also true for a few other teams, and it’s arguable that such interest will help prop things up once player movement begins in earnest.
  • There are still ongoing signals that the Cubs could make a splash. As Paul Sullivan writes for the Chicago Tribune, surprise winter additions are fairly commonplace in Wrigleyville. Manager Joe Maddon suggested yesterday that he believes the front office is still looking to build out the roster, Madeline Kenney of the Chicago Sun-Times reports. Maddon spoke highly of both Jake Arrieta and Alex Cobb, Kenney writes, and the skipper also hinted that president Theo Epstein and GM Jed Hoyer may not yet be done in adding pieces to the bullpen mix for the 2018 campaign.
  • Seeking value will no doubt still drive Chicago, but it’s an imperative for the Indians. Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer names 15 free agents who might represent highly affordable targets for the Cleveland organization. Buttressing the relief corps and adding a righty bat seem to be the top priorities, Hoynes notes.
  • Free agent outfielder Jayson Werth has given no indication that he’s readying for retirement. To the contrary, he tells ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick that he believes he can play for multiple additional seasons (Twitter links). There’s been little indication to this point that any particular teams are in pursuit of the 38-year-old after a rough and injury-limited 2017 campaign, but that could change once the market gets moving. Werth has posted decidedly subpar offensive lines in two of the past three seasons, but did hit at a league-average-ish .244/.355/.417 clip in 2016 and has continued to hit well against lefties.
  • Veteran righty Francisco Rodriguez tells Jon Heyman of Fan Rag that he’s readying for a return and feels he can bounce back from a miserable 2017 season. The 36-year-old almost always delivered results in his 15 prior seasons of MLB action but was tagged for nine homers and 22 earned runs in just 25 1/3 innings last year, with a swinging-strike rate that dropped out of double-digits for just the second time in his long and excellent career. “I still have plenty left,” Rodriguez tells Heyman. “I am hoping to get an opportunity to help a team win a championship. I’m physically way better than I was last year. I’m ready. If I didn’t have it, I’d say it. I’m a straight shooter – my own worst critic.” Rodriguez is not receiving much interest at this point but says he’ll gladly throw for scouts to earn another chance.

Mets “Nearly” Struck Trade With Indians For Jason Kipnis

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The Mets and Indians very nearly pulled off a deal that would have sent Jason Kipnis to New York, according to Jon Heyman of Fan Rag. Upper management — Heyman hints on the Mets side — ended up scuttling a deal that seemed to be in place.

Kipnis was widely rumored to be on New York’s radar last month. For the Mets, the veteran would have plugged a hole at second base. And for the Indians, the considerations were mostly financial, as Kipnis is due $30.5MM on his deal (covering two more seasons along with a buyout on a 2020 option).

It was money, it seems, that caused the hang-up here. While the prospect cost was not prohibitive, Heyman says that “Mets higher-ups didn’t see Kipnis as good value.” Whether Cleveland would have paid down any portion of the remaining obligations in the proposed agreement is not known.

At this point, it would appear that the odds of talks re-opening are low. The Mets just landed free agent slugger Jay Bruce in a move that will occupy a significant portion of their remaining payroll availability. On the Indians’ side, moving the Kipnis contract likely would have helped facilitate their pursuit of Carlos Santana, but he reportedly agreed to terms with the Phillies on December 15th — right after the Mets/Kipnis talk heated up and before it died down.

In any event, the Mets do still need a second baseman — or, perhaps, a third baseman who’d bump Asdrubal Cabrera over to second. As Mike Puma of the New York Post wrote this morning, it seems the club still has a variety of open-market possibilities to consider in the infield. Todd Frazier, Howie Kendrick, Neil Walker, and Jose Reyes are evidently still on the team’s radar, while other trade options are presumably still on the table. (Puma does suggest that free agent Mike Moustakas and trade candidate Starlin Castro are not seen as viable options.)

For the Indians, meanwhile, the latest indication is that the team will utilize Kipnis at his native position of second base after having bumped him to the outfield late last year. Presumably he could still be moved in the right deal, but the organization may also mostly be preparing to hang on and hope he can return to form. While Kipnis limped to a .232/.291/.414 batting line in an injury-limited 2017 season, he carried a composite .289/.357/.460 line over the prior two seasons and has typically graded as a quality defender.

Indians, Cody Allen Avoid Arbitration

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The Indians have avoided arbitration with closer Cody Allen by agreeing to a one-year deal worth $10.575MM, as Tom Withers of the Associated Press was first to report (via Twitter). Allen, a client of Meister Sports Management, had a projected arbitration salary of $10.8MM, per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz.

Allen, 29, will take home a raise of more than $3MM over last season’s $7.35MM salary. The raise was well-deserved, as Allen turned in his fifth consecutive season with a sub-3.00 ERA out of the Cleveland bullpen. Since taking over as Cleveland’s closer in 2014, Allen has pitched to an outstanding 2.62 ERA with 12.1 K/9, 3.2 BB/9 and a total of 120 saves. Allen has averaged better than 70 appearances per season and 53 games finished per year in that time, and he’s been even better in the postseason, where he owns a minuscule 0.47 ERA with a ridiculous 33-to-8 K/BB ratio in 19 1/3 innings.

This past season, Allen worked to a 2.94 ERA and averaged 12.3 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 and 1.2 HR/9 with a 33.5 percent grounder rate and a fastball that averaged 94.3 mph. This will be his final trip through the arbitration process, as Allen is poised to hit the open market for the first time following the 2018 season, adding to an impressive overall crop of free agents. He’ll join Craig Kimbrel, Andrew Miller, Zach Britton, Brad Brach and Kelvin Herrera on what should be a strong market for top-end relievers.

With Allen’s case now resolved, the Indians have four remaining cases, as can be seen in MLBTR’s 2018 Arbitration Tracker. Trevor Bauer, Lonnie Chisenhall, Danny Salazar and Zach McAllister are the Indians’ remaining arb-eligibles that have yet to agree to terms on a contract for the upcoming season.

Indians Will Reportedly Move Jason Kipnis Back To Second Base

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There’s been plenty of speculation about what position Jason Kipnis will play next season (and what team he’ll be playing it for), but Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer reports that the Indians plan to move him back to second base. The move will also push 2017 AL MVP finalist Jose Ramirez back to third base, where he earned an All-Star nod last season.

Kipnis battled injuries through most of last year and didn’t get much going offensively even when he was on the field, as evidenced by his .232/.291/.414 batting line and 82 wRC+. When Kip returned from a DL stint in mid-September (his third of the season), Ramirez’ fantastic defensive play had him firmly entrenched at Kipnis’ natural position. In order to get his bat in the lineup, the Indians deployed Kipnis in center field to replace Bradley Zimmer, who was out for the season with a hand injury.

With Zimmer projected to return to health well before spring training, and Ramirez offering a fantastic up-the-middle defensive combo with All-Star shortstop Francisco Lindor, Kipnis seemed to be lacking a clear role on the team, such to the point that over 50% of MLBTR readers thought that the Tribe ought to trade him during the offseason. Trade rumors never gained much momentum, however. The Mets were weakly connected to Kipnis at one point, but there was always healthy amount of skepticism over whether the two teams could actually reach an agreement.

For the time being, it seems that the Indians will solve a seemingly complex issue with the simplest solution. After all, Kipnis is only a year removed from consecutive 5-WAR seasons. Notably, those seasons were a strong rebound from Kipnis’ last subpar campaign in 2014, so there’s plenty of reason to believe he’ll be able to bounce back again in his age 31 season. In any event, banking on better offensive production from Kipnis seems like a better option than relying on an offensive breakout from Yandy Diaz or Giovanny Urshela at third base, or hoping that top prospect Francisco Mejia can successfully shift to the hot corner with limited experience.

While we can’t rule anything out with certainty, this news seems to take Kipnis off the trading block. Teams looking for second base help must turn to trade market options such as Starlin Castro or Cesar Hernandez or else explore a thin free agent market at the position, which includes Neil Walker, Eduardo Nunez and Howie Kendrick. The news also increases the already-strong likelihood that Mejia will open the season in the minor leagues.

Trade Chatter: Dodgers/White Sox, McCutchen, Salazar, Donaldson

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While there’s nothing in the way of details, Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com dangles an intriguing nugget of information on Twitter: the Dodgers and White Sox, he says, are “working on a trade.” Beyond observing the obvious — the former is a clear contender and the latter still in a rebuilding stance — it’s hard to say just what might be afoot. While most of Chicago’s most obvious trade assets have already been moved over the past year or so, the team still possesses a few veteran hitters and some interesting young arms that might theoretically be of interest to Los Angeles. And it’s anyone’s guess just what player(s) might have capture the attention of the always-creative Dodgers front office. Anyhow, for now, we’ll take Crasnick’s advice and “stay tuned” for more details to emerge.

A few more notes on the trade market…

  • The Giants and Pirates have had recent discussions about a trade involving Andrew McCutchen, though the two sides aren’t close to a deal, reports MLB.com’s Jon Morosi. The Pirates would want the Giants to include one of the organization’s best prospects — either Heliot Ramos, Chris Shaw or Tyler Beede — in any deal for McCutchen, and San Francisco brass is reluctant to part with additional top talent in an already-thin farm system after giving up Christian Arroyo in the Evan Longoria blockbuster. The 31-year-old McCutchen will earn $14.5MM this season before becoming a free agent next winter. While he had a significant rebound at the plate in 2017 (.279/.363/.486, 28 homers), he also turned in poor defensive metrics in center field for a fourth consecutive season. Upgrading the outfield defense has been a stated priority for the Giants.
  • The Indians are “open” to moving right-hander Danny Salazar, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic in his latest notes column (subscription required and strongly recommended). Salazar, 28 next week, has missed time in each of the past two seasons owing to shoulder and elbow injuries. When healthy, the flamethrowing righty has shown the ability to overpower hitters, as evidenced by a career 10.5 K/9 mark and 12.6 percent swinging-strike rate. Salazar, who has two years of club control remaining, comes with a projected arbitration salary of $5.2MM for the 2018 campaign (via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz) and would be arb-eligible once more next winter. Cleveland doesn’t sound to be shopping him by any means, but the Tribe does have some enviable pitching depth and could stomach the loss if a Salazar trade helped the MLB roster in other ways.
  • One name not currently being discussed on the trade market is Blue Jays third baseman Josh Donaldson, Morosi tweets. Toronto isn’t in any active talks regarding Donaldson, which lines up with numerous reports (and comments from GM Ross Atkins) that have indicated the Jays’ desire to field a competitive club in 2018. It stands to reason that an unexpected king’s ransom could change that thinking, especially if it included MLB-ready pieces, but at present it seems more likely that the Jays head into the 2018 season with the former AL MVP in the middle of their order.

Minor MLB Transactions: 1/4/18

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After attempting numerous comebacks over the past half decade, former Red Sox setup man Daniel Bard has opted to officially retire, he tells SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo. Bard chronicles the ups and downs of a once-promising career that was derailed by his inexplicable development of the yips and an an inability to throw strikes at any level. Bard reminds that he overcame a similar issue early in his career after being drafted, but injuries and recurring difficulties in locating the strike zone ultimately led him to retire after signing five unsuccessful minor league deals since his last big league appearance.

Here are some of the day’s other minor moves from around the league…

  • The Indians announced on Thursday that they’ve signed left-hander Robert Zarate to a minor league deal and invited him to Major League Spring Training. Zarate, 31 next month, didn’t pitch in 2016 or 2017 due to a spring elbow injury in ’16 that ultimately required Tommy John surgery. Zarate has had a unique career, spending more time pitching in the Venezuelan Winter League than he has with MLB affiliates in his big league career. His 2015 campaign produced a 2.90 ERA with a 49-to-15 K/BB ratio and a 52.1 percent ground-ball rate in 40 1/3 with the Rays’ Triple-A affiliate, however. Zarate has never reached the big league level in his career.
  • The Rangers announced minor league deals for right-hander Steve Delabar and outfielder Destin Hood (via Twitter). Both players will be invited to Spring Training, per the announcement. Delabar didn’t pitch in 2017 after being popped for an 80-game suspension following a failed PED test. Delabar, 34, was an All-Star with the Blue Jays back in 2013 and served as a very effective member of Toronto’s relief corps from 2012-13 before declining in 2014-15. He has a career 4.07 ERA and has averaged better than 11 strikeouts per nine innings in 194 2/3 MLB frames. Hood, meanwhile, long rated as one of the Nationals’ more promising farmhands, but the former second-rounder’s career stalled in Triple-A. He spent the 2016-17 seasons in the Marlins organization and posted solid, albeit unspectacular numbers in Triple-A.

American League Notes: Machado, Indians, Orioles

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The Red Sox are “showing continued trade interest” in star Orioles infielder Manny Machado, per MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (via Twitter). That said, it’s unclear just how strong a connection there may be between the division rivals. While not specifically referencing Morosi’s report, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com tweets that interest from Boston has been “overstated.” Overall, it’s hard to assess the current state of the Machado market; while a variety of organizations are no doubt still intrigued at the idea of a deal, there’s no real indication that there have been changes in the offers or the asking price.

Here’s more from the American League:

  • While the Indians have pushed their payroll upwards in recent years, Ryan Lewis of the Akron Beacon-Journal writes that the period of growth seems to be at an end. Despite attempting to re-sign Carlos Santana, it seems unlikely the organization will pursue any further major free agents after landing Yonder Alonso on a fairly modest two-year deal. Cleveland’s front office is obviously still looking to improve in the near-term, but sustainability is a key consideration as well.
  • Regardless of what happens with Machado, the Orioles are still in need of a lefty bat, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com writes. He explains that it still seems more likely the missing southpaw stick will arrive in the form of a corner outfielder. While the organization has engaged in “internal discussions” regarding Jon Jay, says Kubatko, it does not seem there’s real interest there. At this point, though, it does not seem as if there’s any real indication at all which way the O’s may go.

Quick Hits: Greinke, Cron, Hughes, Allen, Miller

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“It’s possible this is the Diamondbacks’ last, best chance to get real value for [Zack] Greinke,” Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic writes in a piece detailing the team’s difficult position this winter.  With Greinke still owed $138.5MM through 2021 and taking up an inordinately large piece of Arizona’s payroll, the D’Backs are hard-pressed to to augment a roster that made a surprise run to the NLDS last year.  Dealing Greinke may be the better long-term move, though it would hurt the team’s chances of capitalizing on its sudden contender status.  Greinke had a down year in 2016 and just turned 34 in October, so it isn’t quite clear if his big 2017 season represented a return to form or perhaps a last hurrah before he begins to decline.  The Yankees, Rangers, and Phillies have all checked in on Greinke this winter, so there’s certainly interest if Greinke was made available, though GM Mike Hazen will have a tough needle to thread in finding an acceptable trade match in both salary coverage and MLB-ready talent coming back to Arizona.

Here’s more from around baseball…

  • C.J. Cron has been the subject of trade speculation, though if the Angels do try to deal the first baseman, MLB.com’s Maria Guardado doesn’t expect it to happen prior to Spring Training.  Los Angeles will want to see if Albert Pujols is a viable option to regularly play first base, as the plan is for Pujols to spend time in the field so Shohei Ohtani can get some DH at-bats.  Pujols’ history of foot problems, however, means that Cron (and Luis Valbuena) could be necessary depth pieces for the Halos.
  • While the Reds were looking for one-year deals for relievers, they were comfortable enough with Jared Hughes’ track record to sign the righty to a two-year deal, general manager Dick Williams tells Zach Buchanan of the Cincinnati Enquirer.  Williams feels Hughes adds some needed veteran experience to a Reds bullpen that struggled badly in 2017, and the GM didn’t close the door on his team acquiring another veteran reliever before the winter is over.
  • The Indians will face a tall order in trying to extend Cody Allen or Andrew Miller before either reliever hits free agency next winter, MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian writes as part of a reader mailbag.  Allen is entering his final year of arbitration eligibility, while Miller is finishing up the four-year, $36MM deal he originally signed with the Yankees in December 2014.  Given the large contracts that relievers have been landing this offseason, a smaller-payroll team like Cleveland doesn’t seem like a candidate to re-sign either pitcher, nor to spend the big money it would take to get Allen or Miller to forego the open market and ink an extension.

AL Notes: Twins, Lindor, Orioles, Red Sox

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The Twins are heartened by Miguel Sano’s rehab from surgery to insert a titanium rod into his shin, writes MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger, but it’s still unlikely that Sano will log 150+ games at third base next season. Minnesota will still rely on Sano at the hot corner, but will rotate him between that position and DH, once again giving Eduardo Escobar reps at third as well. The ability to spell Sano and first baseman Joe Mauer with time at DH is one reason that the Twins aren’t looking to bring in a full-time DH, per Bollinger. “We saw the benefits of cycling guys through that spot last year,” said GM Thad Levine. “We’d like to keep the DH spot a little more fluid than lock somebody into it.” Minnesota, of course, has been linked to Mike Napoli, though he’d presumably open the year as more of a part-time DH against lefties than an everyday option at the position.

Elsewhere in the American League…

  • In his latest inbox column, Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer tackles a number of roster-focused questions pertaining to the Indians. Asked about the possibility of another run at extending Francisco Lindor, Hoynes suggests that over the course of Lindor’s remaining four years of control, the Indians will almost certainly make multiple attempts to extend their control over the young superstar. However, the fact that Lindor already rejected a nine-figure extension offer from Cleveland so early in his career could indicate that he’s likelier to test free agency when he is eligible. Hoynes also notes that left-hander and 2016 postseason hero Ryan Merritt will head to Spring Training out of minor league options and without a clear spot in the rotation. That could make Merritt available in trade (either this winter or in Spring Training) or point to a bullpen role — at least in 2018.
  • The Orioles are not abandoning the hope that former outfielder Dariel Alvarez can successfully convert to a right-handed pitcher, writes Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. Alvarez, who had Tommy John surgery last April, will be in Orioles minicamp next month, where club officials can get a look at him and better gauge his rehab progress. Kubatko notes that the O’s still believe he can make it to the Majors. Kubatko also writes that there’s somewhat of a split camp, internally, on whether lefty David Hess will ultimately be a starter or reliever in the long run. Hess was added to the 40-man roster to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft after tossing 154 1/3 innings of 3.85 ERA ball with 7.2 K/9, 3.1 BB/9 and a 30.7 percent ground-ball rate. The 24-year-old has been used almost exclusively as a starter to this point in his pro career, and given Baltimore’s utter dearth of rotation options, it seems likely that he’ll at least have the opportunity to continue developing in that capacity.
  • Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe looks at the possibilities for the Red Sox as they seek to fill their DH spot. While president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has stated he’s content with the team’s offense as constructed, Abraham calls any such notion a mere “bargaining tactic.” Boston could conceivably add J.D. Martinez and relegate Hanley Ramirez to an overpriced platoon first baseman/bench bat, Abraham notes, and simply releasing him remains a possibility. While forgoing a splashy acquisition for the DH spot would leave more room for Dustin Pedroia to rest his knee and could create some at-bats for out-of-options outfielder Bryce Brentz, Boston has yet to augment a lineup that finished the 2017 season ranked 22nd in the Majors with a 92 wRC+, making the need for some form of upgrade fairly obvious.
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