The Rockies have the second-worst record in the National League and will again head into deadline season without a chance to compete for a playoff spot. Colorado has been reluctant to move players in past summers even when they’ve looked to be clear deadline sellers.
It remains to be seen how general manager Bill Schmidt and his front office will approach the coming months, yet it doesn’t seem they’re keen on dealing their best position player. MLB Network’s Jon Morosi tweeted this morning that the Rockies are unlikely to make Ryan McMahon available. They’ll certainly get calls from other clubs inquiring about the possibility; Morosi reports that the Blue Jays are among the teams already showing interest in the veteran third baseman.
As part of a reader mailbag, Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post also suggests he doesn’t anticipate the Rockies dealing McMahon. Saunders floats second baseman Brendan Rodgers and catchers Elias Díaz and Jacob Stallings as more realistic possibilities. The returns for any of those players would be minimal, though. Colorado could seek a much better prospect package for McMahon than they’d receive for any of Díaz, Stallings or Rodgers.
Of course, that’s a testament to McMahon’s talent and excellent start to the 2024 campaign. In 234 plate appearances, he’s hitting .286/.366/.483 with a team-leading 10 home runs. McMahon is on pace for personal-best marks in all three slash stats. He ranks in the top 10 among qualified hitters in hard contact rate, topping a 95 MPH exit velocity on a massive 55.2% of batted balls. McMahon is drawing walks at a lofty 11.5% rate and has cut his strikeout percentage by six points relative to last season. While he’s still punching out at a higher than average clip (25.6%), this level of swing-and-miss is more than reasonable for a player with his power and plate discipline.
Even after accounting for Coors Field, McMahon has been produced as a middle-of-the-order bat. His defensive grades in this season’s 467 innings are around average, but he’s been one of the sport’s best defensive third basemen over the course of his career. McMahon has been a solid regular since 2021 and is playing at an All-Star level this season.
That arguably makes this the best opportunity for the Rockies to move him. He’s amidst a career year at age 29. Colorado has no playoff hope this season; it’s hard to see a path to even fringe Wild Card contention next year. The Rox probably won’t have a meaningful postseason chance until his age-31 season at the earliest. It’s unlikely McMahon would be as valuable a trade candidate at that point as he is now. Even if he maintains this increased performance level, he’ll be deeper into the slightly backloaded six-year extension that he signed in Spring Training 2022.
McMahon is under contract for three and a half more seasons. He’s playing this season and next on $12MM salaries and will make $16MM annually in 2026-27. He could technically play his way into an opt-out opportunity, but that requires a top five finish in MVP balloting that seems unlikely even with his current production.
The extra three seasons make it unsurprising that the Rox don’t seem eager to deal McMahon, even if this summer could be a sell-high window. Colorado held onto Trevor Story and Jon Gray when they were impending free agents a couple seasons ago; they did the same with Brent Suter last summer. They’ve extended other potential trade candidates like Díaz, Antonio Senzatela and Kyle Freeland in recent years. The Rockies have steadfastly resisted taking trades that they consider to be below a player’s value, even if it meant losing them in free agency not long after. That strategy generally hasn’t yielded good results, but the Rox could justifiably distinguish their past inactivity on rentals from holding onto a key player they have signed for another three years.
Díaz, Stallings and Rodgers would be much less significant subtractions. The veteran catching tandem has produced well, but they’re each impending free agents who are into their mid-30s. Rodgers is under arbitration control through 2025. The former #3 overall pick has never developed into the caliber of player that the Rockies anticipated. He’s hitting .266/.308/.342 with just one homer in 50 games this season; it’s not out of the question he’s simply non-tendered next winter.
As for the Jays, they’re a sensible suitor for offensive help even if the Rockies don’t want to move McMahon specifically. The Jays entered the season with questions at third and second base. Offseason pickup Isiah Kiner-Falefa has done a nice job at the hot corner, hitting .269/.315/.410 in 169 plate appearances. He’s capable of playing essentially anywhere, so the Jays could move him around the diamond if they added third base help. Using Kiner-Falefa more frequently at second base would push Davis Schneider more definitively to left field and allow the Jays to cut into the playing time of the struggling George Springer.
Toronto is in last place in the AL East at 25-29, but they’re not likely to pivot towards selling until it’s absolutely necessary. The Jays have a veteran-laden roster seeking a third consecutive playoff berth and their fourth trip in five years.
