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Trevor Story Leaves Game Due To Finger Injury

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Rockies star shortstop Trevor Story left today’s game after being hit by a pitch on his right index finger.  During an eighth-inning plate appearances against the Diamondbacks’ Chris Devenski, Story was hit in the hand and appeared to be in notable discomfort.  Story took his base and actually ended up stealing second as part of a double-steal with lead runner Garrett Hampson, but Story was replaced at shortstop in the bottom half of the inning.

X-rays were negative on Story’s finger, manager Bud Black told The Denver Post’s Patrick Saunders and other reporters after the game.  While this might not prevent a brief injured-list stint given the vagaries of finger and hand injuries, it’s at least very good news that Story appears to have avoided a more serious problem.

Story went 1-for-3 with a walk and a two-run homer in today’s 8-4 Rockies loss to Arizona, giving the shortstop a .284/.348/.520 slash line and four homers over 115 plate appearances.  It’s the type of strong offensive performance that has become common for the two-time All-Star and Silver Slugger winner, and between both his bat and his defense, Story will be a heavily-pursued commodity on the free agent market this winter.  (MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes placed Story fourth in the most recent edition of the Free Agent Power Rankings.)

Any kind of injury or potential IL placement is certainly noteworthy given Story’s influence on both the offseason market, and as a potential trade chip this July.  The Rockies dropped to 10-18 after today’s loss, and the recent resignation of Jeff Bridich as the team’s GM is perhaps a sign that Colorado is preparing for a change of direction and perhaps a selloff at the trade deadline.

Quick Hits: Cubs, Reds, Phillies

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The Cubs and Reds put on a real barn-burner today in Cincinnati. Cubs’ centerfielder Ian Happ tied the game 12-12 with a three-run homer in the top of the eighth inning – the tenth deep shot of the game. Unfortunately, in the bottom half of the inning, Happ collided with second baseman Nico Hoerner on a short pop fly. Hoerner made the catch, but Happ struggled to get to his feet and was ultimately carted off the field. He appeared cognizant, but a concussion could be in play for Happ, who had three hits in his best offensive performance of the year. With Happ out, the Cubs turned to Willson Contreras, who himself was only available in case of an emergency. Contreras, however, was the last position player on the bench, so he came in to catch while Tony Wolters moved to second, Hoerner moved to left, and Kris Bryant replaced Happ in center. While we await an update on Happ, let’s get some roster updates from around the game…

  • The Reds claimed Ashton Goudeau off waivers from the Rockies and designated Phillip Diehl for assignment, the team announced. The 6’6″ righty made his Major League debut for the Rockies in 2020, tossing 8 1/3 innings across four appearances. The 28-year-old has yet to make an appearance this season. Diehl also pitched for the Rockies last season. The Reds claimed him off waivers on April 14th, but he did not appear in a game for the Reds.
  • The Phillies have reinstated Roman Quinn from the COVID-related injured list, returning Mickey Moniak to the alternate site, per the team. Moniak, still just 22 years old, has just a .120/.214/240 batting line in 28 plate appearances this season. The speedy Quinn has also struggled at the plate, slashing .083/.250/.111 in 44 plate appearances this season.

Rockies Place Antonio Senzatela On 10-Day Injured List

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The Rockies announced that righty Antonio Senzatela has been placed on the 10-day injured list due to a right groin strain.  Left-hander Lucas Gilbreath has been called up from the alternate training site in the corresponding move.

The injury compounds a tough beginning to the season for Senzatela, who has a 5.76 ERA through six starts.  The ERA is perhaps a bit deceptive, as he allowed seven runs over 3 1/3 innings in his first outing of the season and a 4.10 ERA in in his five outings, though Senzatela’s Statcast metrics aren’t terribly impressive.  The grounder specialist has his typically strong ground-ball rate (52.4%) but his 13.1% strikeout rate is among the league’s lowest.  Senzatela’s arsenal has made him a decent back-of-the-rotation option for Colorado over the last three seasons, and he had a 3.44 ERA over 73 1/3 frames in 2020.

It isn’t known if Senzatela will miss much time beyond the minimum 10 days, and with Kyle Freeland already on the IL, Colorado is facing an early test of its pitching depth.  In filling Senzatela’s rotation spot, the Rockies could turn to Jhoulys Chacin on the big league roster, or perhaps Jose Mujica, Ryan Castellani, or Antonio Santos from the minor leagues.  Veteran Ivan Nova was also recently signed to a minors deal.

Gilbreath isn’t likely an option, since MLB Pipeline’s scouting report notes that the Rockies moved Gilbreath to a relief role in 2020.  A seventh-round pick for Colorado in the 2017 draft, Gilbreath has a 5.35 ERA and 21.6% strikeout rate over 303 minor league innings, none above the high-A level.  Gilbreath has started 59 of his 66 career games down on the farm, but his two-pitch combo of a plus fastball and slider could make him better suited to bullpen work going forward.  Pipeline ranks Gilbreath as the 26th-best prospect in the Rockies’ farm system.

Rockies Select Matt Adams, Designate Ashton Goudeau

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The Rockies announced that they have selected first baseman Matt Adams, designated right-hander Ashton Goudeau for assignment and optioned outfielder Sam Hilliard.

The 32-year-old Adams joined the Rockies on a minor league last month, which came after he posted career-worst production with the Braves in 2020. Adams hit .184/.216/.347 over 51 plate appearances with Atlanta, causing the team to release him in early September. It was the second straight down year for Adams, who struggled with the Nationals in 2019.

While his most recent output has been poor, the well-traveled Adams has enjoyed a few solid seasons in the majors. The left-hander has logged four seasons with a wRC+ north of 100, including a personal-high 135 (.284/.335/.503) in 2017 with the Cardinals, and has hit 20 or more home runs on three occasions. Overall, Adams has batted .259/.367/.467 (106 wRC+) in 2,574 trips to the plate in the majors.

Now that he’s returning to the bigs, Adams will serve as a bench bat for Colorado, whose offense ranks dead last in the majors in wRC+ (77). He’ll give the team some depth at first base behind C.J. Cron, the Rockies’ most productive hitter this year.

The past several months have been quite an adventure for Goudeau, whom the Rockies previously designated for assignment last November. The Pirates then claimed Goudeau before losing him on waivers to the Orioles. The O’s later lost Goudeau to the Giants, who lost him to the Dodgers, who lost him to the Rockies less than two weeks ago. If that trend continues, someone will claim Goudeau in the next week.

The soon-to-be 29-year-old Goudeau made his MLB debut with Colorado last season, but opposing offenses crushed him for 15 hits and seven earned runs in 8 1/3 innings, and he issued as many walks as strikeouts (two). Goudeau was, however, highly effective at the Double-A level in 2019, when he notched a 2.07 ERA with fantastic strikeout and walk percentages of 30.1 and 4.0, respectively, across 78 1/3 frames.

Injury Notes: Jays, Fried, Astros, Freeland

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A few health updates from around the game…

  • Center fielder George Springer’s Blue Jays debut is on hold yet again. As of Sunday, manager Charlie Montoyo was optimistic Springer would debut tonight, but that wasn’t the case. Springer is “not ready yet,” Montoyo said (Twitter links via Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet), though he did take batting practice and run the bases on Tuesday. Montoyo added that “[Springer] feels great except the running.” The former Astro has been trying to work back since suffering a right quad strain three weeks ago. In better news for the Blue Jays, ace Hyun Jin Ryu is recovering well from the right glute strain he incurred Sunday and shouldn’t miss a start, Nicholson-Smith relays.
  • The Braves are “likely” to activate left-hander Max Fried from the 10-day injured list next Tuesday or Wednesday, Mark Bowman of MLB.com tweets. If true, it’ll go down as roughly a three-week stay on the IL for Fried, who suffered a right hamstring strain during his most recent start on April 13. Once he returns, the 2020 NL Cy Young contender will try to rebound from a ghastly three-start, 11-inning stretch in which hitters victimized him for 15 runs (14 earned) on 23 hits and five walks.
  • Tuesday brought some positive and negative health-related developments for the Astros’ pitching staff. The good news: Southpaw Framber Valdez is making tremendous progress from a left ring finger injury and could rejoin their rotation sometime in June, Jake Kaplan of The Athletic relays. Valdez turned in a stellar performance in 2020, but he hasn’t gotten a chance to follow up on it this year. As for the bad news, righty reliever Pedro Baez has halted his throwing program on account of lingering shoulder soreness. The Astros transferred Baez from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Monday, meaning he won’t make his first appearance with the club until June 9 at the earliest. Houston signed the former Dodger to a two-year, $12.5MM guarantee over the winter.
  • Rockies lefty Kyle Freeland said Tuesday that he will “absolutely” pitch in the majors this season, per Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post (Twitter links). Freeland, a little over a month removed from suffering a strained pitching shoulder, had an “outstanding” bullpen session on Tuesday and could throw a sim game next week, according to manager Bud Black. However, there’s still no clear timetable for a potential 2021 debut for Freeland, who finished third on the Rockies in innings (70 2/3) and recorded a 4.33 ERA/4.95 SIERA with a 51.5 percent groundball rate last season.

Yonder Alonso Joins MLB Network

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Recently retired slugger Yonder Alonso has joined the MLB Network as an on-air analyst, the network announced in a Tuesday press release. He’ll debut as a guest co-host on Intentional Talk this Friday.

“I am beyond thankful to be joining MLB Network’s team, and I can’t thank everybody enough that has helped me get to this point,” Alonso said in today’s press release. “Having just retired, I look forward to having fun and contributing new insights about the game to baseball fans all over the world.”

The 34-year-old Alonso announced his retirement back in November after a 10-year big league career split between the Padres, Athletics, Reds, Rockies, Indians, Mariners and White Sox. The No. 7 overall pick in the 2008 draft, Alonso finished sixth in Rookie of the Year voting with the Padres in 2012 and was an All-Star with the 2017 A’s. He finished up his playing days with a career .259/.332/.404 batting line and an even 100 home runs.

Jeff Bridich Steps Down As Rockies General Manager

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In a statement released by the Rockies, the team and executive vice-president/general manager Jeff Bridich “have mutually agreed” that Bridich will step down from his duties with the club.  The Rockies will appoint an interim GM for the remainder of the 2021 campaign and then look for a full-time general manager after the season.

The baseball operations department is now under the purview of Greg Feasel, who has now been promoted to the role of team president as well as chief operating officer.  Feasel was already COO and an executive VP since the 2010 season, and he has been a member of the organization for 26 seasons.

The news comes as the Rockies are off to an 8-13 start, and are widely seen as heading towards their third straight losing season.  A front office shakeup in late April makes for unusual timing, yet it could allow time for Feasel and the interim GM to alter the franchise’s direction as it heads towards the July trade deadline.  Assuming owner Dick Monfort signs off on the decisions, impending free agents like Trevor Story and Jon Gray could now be prime trade candidates, to say nothing of Charlie Blackmon, German Marquez, or really just about anyone if the Rockies decide that a rebuild is necessary.

Bridich has been a fixture in Denver since 2004, working his way up from his initial job as the Rockies’ manager of minor league operations to senior director roles in baseball operations and player development before being named GM following the 2014 season.  That move also came on the heels of a somewhat surprising resignation, as former GM Dan O’Dowd and senior VP of major league operations Bill Geivett both stepped down, and the Rockies seemingly didn’t perform much (if any) of a candidate search before promoting from within.

Still, a shakeup seemed necessary at the time given how the Rox were coming off four consecutive losing seasons, and Bridich began the heavy lifting of a rebuild by moving longtime shortstop Troy Tulowitzki to the Blue Jays as part of a blockbuster deal at the 2015 trade deadline.  However, it didn’t take long for Bridich to turn the Rockies into a winner, as the team reached the postseason in both 2017 and 2018 by winning wild card berths.  Colorado lost the 2017 wild card game to the Diamondbacks, but defeated the Cubs in 2018 to advance to the NLDS before being swept by the Brewers.

This ended up being the high point for Bridich, as the 2018 Rockies succeeded despite some ill-fated transactions that ended up being some of the most notable misfires of Bridich’s tenure.  It was Ian Desmond’s second season of a five-year, $70MM free agent deal that surprised many at the time of the signing, both because the Rox gave up the 11th overall pick of the 2017 draft as a compensatory pick (under the old qualifying offer system) to land Desmond, and because they were going to deploy him as a first baseman.  Desmond simply didn’t produce during the 2017-19 seasons, and he chose to opt out of playing in both 2020 and this season.

The 2017-18 offseason saw Bridich’s front office spend $106MM on three free agent relievers in Wade Davis, Jake McGee, and Bryan Shaw, none of whom succeeded in bolstering the bullpen.  Daniel Murphy’s two-year, $24MM deal in the 2018-19 offseason also backfired on the Rockies, especially since Murphy struggled and the player he effectively replaced (DJ LeMahieu) went on to become an MVP candidate after leaving Colorado to sign with the Yankees.

This focus on free agent moves was due in part because Bridich didn’t swing many trades, and yet ironically, his time with the team will largely be remembered for both the Tulowitzki swap near the beginning of his GM tenure, and the Nolan Arenado trade that came near the end.

Arenado signed a hefty contract extension prior to the 2019 season, guaranteeing the star third baseman $234MM in new money over seven additional seasons and seemingly locking him up as the Rockies’ signature star.  However, the team’s struggles in 2019 almost immediately soured the relationship between not just Arenado and the team, but Arenado and Bridich specifically.  The “disrespect” that Arenado said he felt immediately sparked speculation that a trade was inevitable, and after much speculation, Arenado was dealt to the Cardinals this winter.  Left with relatively little leverage thanks to both Arenado’s no-trade clause and his ability to opt out of the contract following the 2021 season, the Rockies ended up sending $51MM to St. Louis to help cover Arenado’s remaining salary, while receiving an unspectacular trade package of Austin Gomber and three non-elite prospects.

Beyond these public controversies, there were also plenty of issues behind the scenes, as illustrated by The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal and Nick Groke in a wide-ranging piece published in March.  Rosenthal and Groke dove deeper into Bridich’s conflict with Arenado, the Rockies’ lack of investment in an analytics department, the failed free agent signings, and some criticisms of Bridich’s personality and demeanor from some players and former employees, specifically in regards to his communication (or lack thereof) with the team and the rest of the front office.

Beyond Bridich, however, several criticisms were also directed at Monfort, described by one source as someone who “likes the limelight, likes being in the middle of it all.”  If Monfort continues taking such an active role in Colorado’s baseball operations, it remains to be seen how a change in general manager might improve things in the Mile High City.  According to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, assistant GM Zack Rosenthal and scouting director Bill Schmidt are two early candidates for the interim GM role.  It isn’t surprising that the Rockies would look to a familiar face for an interim job, though it doesn’t help shake the perception that the organization is very insular.

Feasel’s new role could be a step in a new direction, however, even though Feasel is himself a longtime Rockies employee.  This is the first time the club has has an official team president since former president Keli McGregor passed away in 2010, and Rosenthal/Groke noted that Monfort more or less stepped into the president role.  Feasel comes from a business background rather than a baseball background, and it is possible he could return to focusing on the team’s business operations after the season if the Rockies were to hire a new president of baseball ops to specifically handle the on-field product.  A new voice from outside the organization might be necessary to get the Rockies back on track.

Latest On Rockies’ GM Position

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For the first time since 2014, the Rockies are in the market for a new general manager. Jeff Bridich spent the past six-plus years as the Rockies’ GM, but he and the team went their separate ways Monday. Colorado will appoint an interim GM for the rest of the 2021 campaign – likely scouting director Bill Schmidt or assistant GM Zack Rosenthal, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports – and then hire a permanent replacement for Bridich after the season.

Although Bridich has only been out of a job for a few hours, a potential successor from outside the organization has already emerged. Twins GM Thad Levine is “[t]he leading candidate” for the opening in Colorado, Nightengale writes. There’s familiarity between the Rockies and the 49-year-old Levine, who worked in their front office in various roles – including senior director of baseball operations – from 1999-2005. He then left to become the Rangers’ assistant GM, but not before earning the respect of Rockies owner Dick Monfort, according to Nightengale.

Along with president of baseball operations Derek Falvey, Levine has helped lead a turnaround in Minnesota since his hiring after the 2016 season. The Twins, then coming off a 59-win season, have gone to the playoffs three times and won two American League Central titles during the Falvey-Levine reign. As a result of the positive on-field results, Levine has garnered interest from other organizations during his time with the Twins. The Mets wanted to interview Levine for their GM job back in 2018, and he was a legitimate candidate to take over the Phillies’ front office this past offseason. Levine backed out of the running for that post, which ultimately went to Dave Dombrowski.

It’s not known whether Levine would have interest in leaving Minnesota for Colorado. Levine is currently under contract with the Twins through 2024 on the extension he signed in 2019.

Carlos Correa vs. Trevor Story

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In the comment section on my recent 2021-22 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings, there was a lot of debate about the merits of shortstops Carlos Correa and Trevor Story, who seem to clearly fall behind Corey Seager in the upcoming free agent class.  Which player will have greater earning power in free agency?

Some points of comparison:

Age on Opening Day 2022

  • Correa: 27.54 years
  • Story: 29.39 years
  • Difference: 1.85 years

Age is a crucial factor in free agent contract length, as teams want to avoid as many decline years as possible.  Capturing a player’s age 27 season in free agency is a rare thing.  In the cases of Bryce Harper (13 years), Manny Machado (10 years), and Jason Heyward (eight years), teams were actually able to capture age 26.  There are not any other recent cases of free agent deals that included age 26 or 27.

Machado signed for ten years and $300MM, while the Mets recently extended Francisco Lindor for ten years and $341MM, albeit with deferred money.  The players were paid through age 35 and 37, respectively.  A contract running through age 37, as Lindor’s does, is pretty rare.  I think teams will be looking to commit to Correa and Story through age 35 or 36, at most.  Paying through age 35 would mean a nine-year deal for Correa, though that might be a long shot given his inconsistency and injury history.  It’d mean a seven-year deal for Story.  Those terms would only be available if the players are considered highly desirable after strong 2021 seasons.

Offense

Rest of 2021 Season ZiPs/Steamer projections in wRC+

  • Correa: 125 / 118
  • Story: 102 / 103

2019 to present wRC+

  • Correa: 126
  • Story: 117

2018 to present wRC+

  • Correa: 115
  • Story: 121

2018 was Story’s best year (128 wRC+) and one of Correa’s worst (101), so whether you include it makes a big difference.  But it’s pretty clear that Correa has a higher ceiling, with marks of 136 in 2015, 152 in 2017, and 143 in 2019.  As we’ll discuss later, Correa was quite clearly affected after returning from a back injury in 2018, so I think the “2019 to present” numbers are a better reflection of his true ability.

Why use wRC+?  It’s park-adjusted, so it neutralizes the fact that Story has played 50.7% of his games in Coors Field.  If you cite straight-up numbers with no adjustment, you’d clearly prefer Story.  I think any MLB team interested in Story would attempt to neutralize the effects of Coors, though.  It is not as simple as looking at Story’s work on the road and assuming that’s how he’d play for a new team in a neutral ballpark.  But since 2018, Story does have a huge split: a 136 wRC+ at home, and 105 on the road.  In terms of triple slash, Story is at .266/.327/.450 on the road since 2018, and .316/.379/.642 at home.

Story may follow the path of Matt Holliday.  From 2005-07, Holliday posted an even more extreme 166 at home and 108 on the road.  He was not a 108 wRC+ hitter after leaving Coors, however, putting up an excellent 145 mark from 2008-13, mostly for the Cardinals.  Holliday was able to spend all of his 2009 contract year away from Coors, posting a 141 wRC+ for the A’s and Cardinals that likely helped him land the largest contract of the 2009-10 offseason.  DJ LeMahieu is another example of a former Rockie who continued to hit well after posting extreme splits.

In the likely event Story is traded this summer, he’ll have a chance to demonstrate his standard 120 wRC+ production in a more neutral environment for a few months.  That’s more likely than a Correa trade, and being free of a qualifying offer would be an advantage for Story.

It makes little sense to remove park factors, when Minute Maid Park has suppressed offense (outside of 2019) while Coors Field has inflated it by a minimum of 12% during Story’s career.  But for comparison, Correa has hit .276/.352/.483 since 2017 and .258/.334/.453 since 2018.  Story stands at .278/.342/.524 since 2017 and .291/.353/.547 since 2018.  Story has reached the 35 home run mark twice, while Correa’s career-best is 24.

As for Correa, what about the sign-stealing scandal?  According to MLB’s report, the bulk of the Astros’ sign-stealing efforts were in 2017, in which Correa put up a career-best 152 wRC+.  He was excellent both at home and on the road, though the scheme is only thought to have occurred at the Astros’ home park.  MLB’s report suggested the Astros did not utilize trash-can banging in 2018, when Correa dropped down to 101.  That 101 mark may be explained by a back injury, which I’ll get into later.  The Astros also weren’t thought to be cheating in 2019, but Correa bounced back to a 143 mark.

Astros fan Tony Adams analyzed home data for the Astros from 2017, and found 140 total trash can bangs for George Springer and 97 for Correa.  If potential free agent suitors consider Springer and Correa equally complicit in the sign-stealing, it would bode well for Correa, since the scandal didn’t seem to have much effect on Springer’s market.  Ultimately, like Springer, Correa just needs to go out and have a big contract year if he wants to get paid.  There’s a solid argument that in a neutral ballpark, he’s a better hitter than Story.

Defense

By measure of UZR/150, Story is at 3.9 since 2018, while Correa sits at -3.5.  Story also leads in Defensive Runs Saved (DRS), though that’s a cumulative stat and he played an additional 1,042 innings in the field – 47% more than Correa did.  Outs Above Average, which is part of Statcast, is more sophisticated than UZR or DRS, but doesn’t necessarily tell a clear story.  Here’s each player’s OAA by year:

  • 2016: Story 4 (823 innings), Correa -17 (1355.6 innings)
  • 2017: Story 7 (1185.3 innings), Correa -3 (946 innings)
  • 2018: Story -5 (1372.6 innings), Correa 17 (959 innings)
  • 2019: Story 18 (1257.3 innings), Correa 9 (642.3 innings)
  • 2020: Story 2 (491.3 innings), Correa 3 (475 innings)

It would appear that Story’s defense slipped to a below-average level in only one season, 2018, on which OAA and UZR/150 agree.  There’s no clear injury in 2018 to explain the lapse, though he miss a few late September games with elbow soreness.  Story was able to improve his range and reduce his errors in 2019, and seems to have settled in as an above-average defender.

We’ll talk about durability in the next section, but with Correa we have a player who has tallied 1,000 innings in the field exactly once, in his 2016 sophomore season.  UZR suggested he was a bit below average that year, while OAA had him as the game’s worst defensive shortstop.

2018 is particularly odd for Correa, where OAA shows him as the game’s fourth-best defensive shortstop while UZR/150 has him as the fourth-worst.  That was a year in which Correa avoided the IL until late June, at which point he missed over a month due to a back injury.  He acknowledged that the injury played a role in his plummeting offense, and his OAA was lower after the injury.  MLB.com’s Mike Petriello suggested to me that the Astros’ frequent shifting, and UZR’s lack of accounting for that, might account for the difference between the two stats.

Correa suffered another major injury toward the end of May 2019 – a cracked rib that cost him two months – as well as more back pain in late August of that year.  Nonetheless, his defense doesn’t seem to have suffered.

Both Story and Correa have been above average defenders since 2019, ranking fourth and ninth respectively in OAA.  Story is carried largely by his 2019 season, for which he was voted a Gold Glove finalist for the first time.  Though he has dropped off so far this year, Story has often ranked among the top 40 in the game in terms of sprint speed, which is a factor in his defense.  I think it’s safe to say that Story is the superior defender.  It’s worth noting that Correa has already expressed a willingness to move to third base if needed, while the topic hasn’t really been broached for Story.

Durability

Story was drafted 45th overall by the Rockies out of high school in 2011.  As a minor leaguer in 2014, he missed roughly a month due to hairline fracture on his left pinky finger.  The Rockies traded longtime shortstop Troy Tulowitzki in July 2015, taking on Jose Reyes in the process.  In 2016, Reyes was suspended through May to begin the year under the league’s domestic violence policy, opening the door for Story to make the team out of camp.  After becoming the Rockies’ starter in 2016, Story’s season ended on July 30th due to a torn UCL in his left thumb that would require surgery.  It was still good for a fourth-place Rookie of the Year finish.

A new injury popped up in May 2017, as Story strained his left shoulder and missed the minimum two weeks.  In late September 2018, Story exited a game with right elbow soreness, but he missed only five games.  In June of 2019, Story injured his right thumb after a headfirst slide, with the resulting IL stint costing him 11 games.

That’s the full extent of Story’s injury history in his five-plus years.  He’s played in 522 games since 2017, 14th in all of MLB.  Story was able to recover quickly from minor injuries in 2017, ’18, and ’19, and can safely be penciled in for 145-150 games annually.

Correa was drafted first overall by the Astros out of high school in 2012.  He dealt with only minor injuries in the minor leagues until June 2014, when he suffered a fractured right fibula sliding into third base and had to undergo surgery.  By January 2015, his ankle was back to 100%.

Correa opened the 2015 season at Double-A, a defensible choice since he’d yet to play at that level.  He reached Triple-A by May and went on to make his big league debut on June 8th.  The timing worked out well for the Astros to receive part of a seventh year of control of Correa and also avoid Super Two status, but his starting the year in the minors was justified.  Correa played 99 dynamic regular season games in 2016, avoiding injury and winning the Rookie of the Year award.

2016, just Correa’s age 21 season, was perhaps the best of his career.  He missed three games in June with an ankle sprain and another four with shoulder inflammation, but avoided the IL.  Correa would play 153 games in the regular season that year, the only time he’s exceeded 110 Major League games in a season.

Correa’s injury history is significant, but also limited to the three-year period of 2017-19.  On July 17th, 2017, according to MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart, “Correa left Monday’s 9-7 loss to the Mariners in the fourth inning after injuring the thumb on a swing, the same thumb he originally hurt sliding head-first into home July 4 in Atlanta.”  The torn thumb ligament required surgery and cost him more than six weeks.  He returned successfully in September of that year.

Correa’s next IL stint was in June of 2018 due to a back injury.  Like the thumb the prior year, this injury cost him about a month and a half.  Though he returned in mid-August, the issue lingered and affected his performance for the rest of the season.  From 2015-19, 2018 is Correa’s only season with a wRC+ below 123, and it’s easy to attribute his overall 101 mark that year to his back injury.  Correa had a 128 wRC+ before the injury, and just a 45 mark thereafter.

Correa’s back healed up and he started yoga in the 2018-19 offseason, but a cracked rib suffered in late May 2019 cost him a full two months.  Oddly, Correa said the rib was cracked by what must have been a particularly aggressive massage.  After he’d been back for about a month, he went on the IL again due to a back injury.  Since then, Correa has avoided the IL, playing in 58 of 60 games in 2020.

Both Story and Correa have been starters since 2016.  Story has played in 619 games – 19% more than Correa’s 520.  Is Correa, who has yet to reach his 27th birthday, simply an injury-prone player?  Or might he settle in at 150 games per year if he avoids headfirst slides and rough massages?  If I was looking at signing him, it’s his back that I’d be concerned about, as it cost him roughly two and a half months during the 2018-19 seasons.  150 games this year would go a long way.

Overall Value

Much of Correa’s value is packed into the earlier years of his career, when he put up 13.7 WAR in 361 games from 2015-17.  He’s managed only 6.1 WAR since, roughly the same as what Story did in 2019 alone.  Career-wise, Correa leads Story 19.8 to 17.9.

From 2018 to present, Correa has been good for 3.7 WAR per 650 plate appearances, while Story is at 5.4.  From 2019 to present, those numbers are 4.7 for Correa and 5.5 for Story.  But here’s how each player projects for the rest of the season per 650 PA, according to FanGraphs:

  • Correa ZiPS: 5.0
  • Correa Steamer: 4.1
  • Story ZiPS: 3.5
  • Story Steamer: 2.9

If you buy those projections, Correa will be the better per-game player moving forward, likely due to the age difference.  Aside from the durability question, that is what MLB teams must determine when offering these players contracts: who will be better over the next seven years or so?

With that lengthy comparison of Carlos Correa and Trevor Story, I turn it over to you.

West Notes: Ohtani, Posey, Owings, Long

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Shohei Ohtani has been scheduled to start Tuesday’s game against the Rangers, the Angels announced today.  The two-way star has pitched just once this season due to a blister on the middle finger of his throwing hand, but he threw three bullpen sessions this week of increasing pitch volume, topping out at a 30-pitch bullpen on Saturday.

With no further issues in the wake of these sessions, Ohtani will look to build on an inconsistent first start that saw him allow one earned run over 4 1/3 innings against the White Sox on April 4, but with five walks and two hits allowed.  While Ohtani has been kept off the mound, the blister hasn’t slowed down his red-hot bat, as Ohtani is hitting .333/.370/.706 with four home runs in 54 plate appearances.

More from both the AL West and NL West..

  • It isn’t yet known if Buster Posey will require an injured list placement, as Giants manager Gabe Kapler said the catcher will be re-evaluated on Monday.  Speaking to reporters (including Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle and The Athletic’s Andrew Baggarly) before and after today’s game with the Marlins, Kapler said pre-game that there was some swelling in Posey’s left elbow, but during the post-game noted that the swelling had lessened.  Posey left Saturday’s game in the seventh inning after being hit by a pitch, and x-rays were negative on the catcher’s elbow.
  • The Rockies moved Chris Owings from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day injured list earlier today, as Owings will have to undergo surgery on his left thumb.  Manager Bud Black told The Athletic’s Nick Groke and other reporters that Owings will need at least eight weeks of recovery time.  Owings’ injury was initially diagnosed as a left thumb sprain when he was first placed on the IL last week, but the veteran utilityman is now going to end up missing a big chunk of the 2021 campaign.
  • After undergoing surgery last September to fix a stress fracture in his right shin, Mariners utilityman Shed Long continues to make some progress on the recovery trail.  Manager Scott Servais updated reporters (including Jen Mueller of Root Sports) on Long, saying that he is still having difficulty making changes of direction on his shin and making stops when running, though Long is able to run and sprint without any problems.  It isn’t yet known when Long might be ready to make his 2021 debut.
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