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Checking In On Last Season’s Worst Rotations

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We checked in last week on what, if anything, the five lowest-scoring offenses of 2019 have done to improve themselves this winter. Let’s now take a look at whether any of the five starting rotations that posted the highest ERAs last year have gotten better this offseason. Free agency won’t offer much in the way of help at this point, so for the most part, what you see here is probably what you’ll get..

Colorado Rockies (5.87 ERA/5.31 FIP; current depth chart)

  • Assembling a competent starting staff has regularly been a problem for the Rockies, who are stuck playing half their games at the unkind confines of Coors Field. It was a different story in 2018, the year the Rockies boasted a high-end starting staff, but things took a sharp turn for the worse last season. Aside from German Marquez and Jon Gray, who continued their strong production, no one from the Rockies’ rotation performed well. Kyle Freeland suffered through a disastrous campaign after posting a Cy Young-caliber 2018, while Antonio Senzatela, Peter Lambert, Jeff Hoffman, Chi Chi Gonzalez, Tim Melville, Tyler Anderson, Chad Bettis and Rico Garcia combined for woeful numbers across a combined 83 starts. So what have the Rockies done since to address their starting group? Nothing of note. It seems they’ll count on a bunch of their holdovers to turn in better showings, though their staff will take a big hit in the event they deal Gray (a potential trade candidate) before the season.

Los Angeles Angels (5.64 ERA/5.41 FIP; current depth chart)

  • The Angels’ rotation suffered a terrible blow in the fall of 2018 when Shohei Ohtani underwent Tommy John surgery, costing him all of last season, and then tragedy struck last July when Tyler Skaggs passed away. Considering the circumstances, it’s not surprising the Angels’ staff reeled last season. Nevertheless, adding reinforcements was clearly in order for this winter. The problem is that the Angels still haven’t found a way to acquire a proven front-of-the-rotation type, which many expected to them to get when the winter began. Ohtani’s back, which is a major plus. Meanwhile, the acquisitions of innings-eaters Dylan Bundy and Julio Teheran should help matters, but they’re not going to frighten opposing offenses. The Angels figure to keep trying to better their rotation in the coming months, though the open market has dried up and teams seemingly aren’t champing at the bit to move big-time starters via trade now.

Baltimore Orioles (5.57 ERA/5.72 FIP; current depth chart)

  • Bundy, who led the O’s rotation in innings last season, is now gone. 2019 success story John Means remains in place, and Alex Cobb will be back in the wake of injuries that limited him to three starts. Those two aside, there’s little in the way of established starters for rebuilding Baltimore, though it wouldn’t be surprising to see the club try to find a cheap starter(s) in free agency before the season begins. The team did make an interesting move when it used the second pick of the Rule 5 Draft on 25-year-old righty Brandon Bailey, whom Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs calls a “spin rate monster.”

Detroit Tigers (5.51 ERA/4.66 FIP; current depth chart)

  • Detroit’s rotation mix actually looks pretty promising, though it’s possible the team will weaken the mix by trading Matthew Boyd before the season. As of now, he’s back at the helm of a group that also got respectable performances from Spencer Turnbull and Daniel Norris last year. Stud prospects Casey Mize and Matt Manning are gaining on the majors, meanwhile, and Michael Fulmer should factor back in sometime this year after Tommy John surgery kept him away in 2019. Furthermore, the Tigers just signed the durable Ivan Nova to a cheap contract to serve as their resident back-end innings-eater. Jordan Zimmerman, arguably the weakest link in the chain, is also the most expensive. Mercifully for the Tigers, he’s finally entering the last season of what has been an albatross contract for the club.

Pittsburgh Pirates (5.19 ERA/4.78 FIP; current depth chart)

  • The Pirates, already without staff leader Jameson Taillon for most of last season, suffered a horrid blow when he underwent a TJ procedure in August. He won’t be part of the 2020 staff as a result, leaving holdovers Chris Archer, Joe Musgrove and Trevor Williams at the helm of an uninspiring-looking bunch. Barring a trade, the hope is that the once-terrific Archer will put a nightmarish first year and a half as a Pirate behind him. Archer was markedly better as last season progressed, so there does seem to be some hope for a full-season bounce-back effort. The unit will include some speculative candidates in Tommy John rehabber Chad Kuhl and talented 23-year-old Mitch Keller, who struggled as a rookie but remains a premium pitching prospect.

The original version of this post mistakenly indicated that Kuhl underwent Tommy John surgery in 2019. His procedure occurred in September of 2018.

Latest On Braves’ Third Base Plans

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The last elite free agent of the winter came off the board Tuesday when third baseman Josh Donaldson agreed to a four-year, $92MM guarantee with Minnesota. Not only does the addition strengthen an already power-happy Twins offense, but it’s also a significant blow for an Atlanta team that received outstanding production from Donaldson in 2019. The club’s situation at third, where Johan Camargo and Austin Riley are in-house front-runners to take over for Donaldson, now looks far less imposing sans Donaldson.

Camargo was effective as recently as two years ago, but his production nosedived during a season to forget in 2019. Riley’s not far removed from a run as a standout prospect, and he began his major league career well last season. However, thanks largely to a bloated strikeout rate (36.4 percent), he endured enormous struggles as 2019 progressed.

There aren’t any obvious answers left at third in free agency, so the Braves could begin the season with what they have at the position and opt for a power bat at another spot (Marcell Ozuna? Nicholas Castellanos?). On the other hand, there are two all-world trade chips in the Cubs’ Kris Bryant and the Rockies’ Nolan Arenado looming on that market.

While Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets that the Braves are “expected” to revisit previous talks with the Cubs regarding Bryant, David O’Brien of The Athletic throws a bit of cold water on that. The Braves “haven’t been gung-ho on either,” per O’Brien. As was reported previously, the Braves have concerns over Bryant’s defense. And the former MVP’s contract status figures to help stand in the way of a trade with the Braves or anyone else for at least a little while longer. The Cubs and the rest of the league continue to await word on whether Bryant has one or two years of control left after he filed a service-time grievance in October.

Similarly, there are questions over how much longer it’ll be before Arenado becomes a free agent. Unlike Bryant, Arenado is on a long-term contract – a guaranteed $234MM over seven years – but he will be able to opt out of it after his age-30 season in 2021. The massive amount left on Arenado’s deal, his opt-out rights and a hesitance to surrender multiple prospects for him have led to wariness from the Braves, according to O’Brien.

As of last month, general manager Alex Anthopolous and the Braves were on the hunt for a middle-of-the-order hitter. The hope then was that Donaldson would take on that role again in 2020, but the two-time reigning NL East champions’ lineup suddenly looks much weaker now that he’s gone. With strong free-agent options dwindling, the Braves hardly shoo-ins to land either Bryant or Arenado, and their projected Opening-Day payroll ($140MM) already $5MM higher than last year’s season-ending outlay, it’s unclear where the Braves will go from here.

Cardinals’ Talks For Arenado “Haven’t Gone Anywhere”

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1:30pm: ESPN’s Jeff Passan tweets that while the Rockies and Cardinals have indeed exchanged some names, their talks on Arenado “haven’t gone anywhere” and the exchange of names “hasn’t been productive.”

11:29am: The Rockies and Cardinals “have begun exchanging names” of players of interest as they attempt to structure a potential deal that would send third baseman Nolan Arenado to St. Louis, MLB.com’s Jon Morosi reports. The Colorado organization is said to want both MLB and minor-league players to move their franchise cornerstone.

It’s a bit difficult to know what to make of this latest update. On the one had, it’s presented as a step forward. Morosi reported over the weekend that the sides had struck up “preliminary trade negotiations.” He now states that the chatter has “advanced beyond a preliminary stage.”

On the other, it seems hard to imagine that the sides had really been engaged in dialogue of much substance if no names of players other than Arenado even came up. As Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch recently explained, the Cards have had “longstanding interest” in Arenado but have “found the Rockies’ asking price prohibitive.” So, it would appear the sides are only now returning to a level of discussion at which they’ve previously engaged without seeing eye to eye.

The real question here remains how motivated the Rockies are about taking advantage of the opportunity to move Arenado’s contract and get something in return. If so, then perhaps it is indeed notable that they are back to swapping possible names with the Cards. It’s obviously not the Rockies’ preference to move their biggest star, but there’s huge risk in holding pat given the roster’s 2019 backslide and a slate of contractual commitments that is straining the payroll that the organization has established.

Morosi does go on to name a few names, though again it is not clear how the information is best interpreted. The Rox have both interest and some misgivings in Dakota Hudson, says Morosi, who echoes Goold’s characterization of the Cards being utterly unwilling to discuss Jack Flaherty. In addition to contemplating Hudson, who certainly has his warts but also has thrown over 200 MLB innings of 3.25 ERA ball and won’t turn 26 until September, the Rox are said to be eyeing up the Cards’ top prospects as well.

This is where the skepticism really enters the picture, because that’s quite a haul of talent. Arenado is obviously well worth it from an on-field perspective, but his contract — which, as already written to death, gives him huge downside protection ($234MM guaranteed) with the upside of opting out after 2021 — is less than a straightforward asset to price. It would be a bit odd to see the Cardinals part with that kind of surplus value for the right to take over such a deal, particularly since the team wasn’t notably connected to free agent Anthony Rendon.

Morosi’s report takes a curious turn when he gets to Cardinals infielder Matt Carpenter. While the highly compensated veteran is said to be under consideration in talks, Morosi writes that “the Rockies don’t appear to be mandating his inclusion.” That’s a befuddling way to characterize a 34-year-old player who just wrapped up a subpar season and is owed a hefty $39MM over the next two years (including a buyout on an option). Clearly, the Rox would rather not have that contract; Carpenter would be included to help offset the Arenado obligations.

Once more, it’s tough to know what to make of that curious bit. There’s no chance the Rockies are clamoring for Carpenter, but it’s equally true that the club wouldn’t want the deal to seem publicly like a salary dump. So, perhaps this strained characterization constitutes evidence that the Colorado organization is preparing to sell an all-but-assuredly unpopular trade to a skeptical fan base. Or maybe that’s just reading into things.

Two things seem safe to say at this point: First, that there are reasonably serious discussions involving Arenado, with the Cardinals at least one of the teams engaged with the Rockies. (The Rangers and perhaps others are also seemingly still at least kicking around the periphery.) And second, that there remain a number of significant obstacles that must still be cleared to move an Arenado trade scenario from the realm of hypothetical plausibility to one approaching actualization.

Latest On Rockies' Talks With Cardinals

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  • The Rockies and Cardinals have engaged in preliminary negotiations centering on Rox superstar third baseman Nolan Arenado, who has been on St. Louis’ radar for years. They’ve held talks with Colorado “at least dating back” to December 2018, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch relays. A few months later, the Rockies extended Arenado for seven years and $234MM on a deal that will kick in this season. That money, not to mention Arenado’s no-trade rights and his ability to opt out after 2021, could help prevent an acquisition from materializing for the Cardinals or anyone else. The Cards haven’t been willing to meet the Rockies’ asking price for Arenado in the past, per Goold, though it’s unclear what Colorado asked for in return. Now, as you’d expect, Goold notes that the Cardinals are unwilling to trade young ace Jack Flaherty and also seem unlikely to part with high-end outfield prospect Dylan Carlson.

Cardinals, Rockies Have Reportedly Engaged In Preliminary Arenado Talks

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The Cardinals and Rockies have recently engaged in “preliminary trade negotiations” regarding Nolan Arenado, reports Jon Morosi of MLB.com. Morosi characterizes the Redbirds as “a viable suitor” for the five-time All-Star.

Of course, a deal coming to fruition is far from certain. Indeed, just yesterday, we heard that a St. Louis acquisition of Arenado was unlikely. That the sides are talking could give Cardinals’ fans cause for hope, but it’s hardly proof anything will get across the finish line. Teams surely engage in preliminary negotiations on any number of scenarios without ultimately completing the deal all the time.

Just how far these talks between Colorado and St. Louis have yet progressed isn’t clear. The Cardinals are intent on adding an impact position player this offseason, Morosi notes, although a re-signing of free agent Marcell Ozuna could fill that void. Morosi adds that Dakota Hudson could be a central figure in Arenado talks, although that seems more speculative than a definitive report that Colorado is intent on acquiring the 25-year-old sinkerballer.

As Morosi notes, an Arenado deal would be difficult to pull off, whether for the Cardinals or another suitor. Arenado is due $234MM over the next seven years on the extension he signed last February. That’d be a huge commitment for any acquiring team, but it’s hardly unreasonable for a player of his caliber. Anthony Rendon signed for $245MM over the same term this offseason. While Rendon has been marginally better than Arenado over the past few seasons, the Rockies’ star is a year younger.

More difficult to navigate are Arenado’s full no-trade clause and post-2021 opt-out clause. Arenado has in the past been vocal about his desire to compete, and Morosi notes he admires the Cardinals’ franchise history and has a strong rapport with Paul Goldschmidt. It thus seems feasible he’d be willing to waive the no-trade clause, particularly if the Rockies pivot to a large-scale rebuild. It should be noted, however, Arenado himself has not addressed the no-trade clause publicly.

The opt-out clause poses a greater challenge. Suitors figure to be understandably reluctant to part with the kind of young talent Colorado would surely require for their franchise player if they fear he’ll depart after 2021. (Of course, if Arenado were to not exercise his opt-out in two years’ time, it’s probably an indicator he couldn’t beat the hefty $164MM he’s currently due from 2022-26 on the open market). Morosi reports that St. Louis could explore attempting to convince Arenado to waive his opt-out clause (particularly by guaranteeing him more money), but there’s hardly any indication he’d be willing to do so.

Arenado will surely remain one of the game’s most notable trade candidates unless a deal ultimately comes to fruition. Whether St. Louis or any other team can overcome the numerous hurdles to a deal is one of the offseason’s most fascinating storylines.

Rockies Have Interest In Jonathan Lucroy

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The Rockies’ search for catching help could lead them to a familiar face, as Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe writes that “Jonathan Lucroy could return to the Rockies for a second stint.”  Lucroy first played for Colorado in 2017, suiting up for 46 games in the purple pinstripes after a deadline trade from the Rangers.  The veteran backstop had a big hand in the Rockies’ run to the NL wild card game that season, batting .310/.429/.437 over 175 plate appearances with the club.

Lucroy’s time in Colorado also represents the last consistently good stretch of his career, as he has otherwise struggled badly over the last three seasons.  Over 782 PA with the Athletics, Angels, and Cubs in 2018-19, Lucroy has hit only .237/.297/.338 with 12 home runs.  Prior to the Rockies trade, Lucroy also batted .242/.297/.338 in his first 306 PA of the 2017 season.

It has been a stark dropoff both offensively and defensively for a player who was arguably the game’s best catcher in his 2012-16 heyday with the Brewers and Rangers.  As per Baseball Prospectus, Lucroy’s blocking and framing numbers have been far below average over the last three seasons.  On the more intangible front, Lucroy was heavily praised for his game-calling ability and work in managing Oakland’s makeshift pitching staff in 2018, as the A’s overcame a barrage of rotation injuries to win a slot in the AL wild card game.

This type of veteran stability would be a boost to a Rockies’ catching situation that was a big problem area in 2019.  Tony Wolters has yet to show anything at the plate (.653 OPS) over 1123 career plate appearances, and Wolters’ framing numbers dropped precipitously from near-elite level in 2018 to below average in 2019.  Drew Butera and Elias Diaz has have already been added as veteran backup options, and Lucroy would bring more of a track record than either of that pairing, though he has shown little of his old form in recent years.  The pickings are slim on the free agent catching market by this point in the offseason, so Colorado could opt to just add another relatively inexpensive option in Lucroy or perhaps seek out a trade.

Cardinals Not An Ideal Nolan Arenado Trade Partner?

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  • Nolan Arenado has been frequently mentioned as a trade possibility for the Cardinals, though Ben Frederickson of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch feels a potential deal with the Rockies “probably won’t” happen.  Roadblocks include Arenado’s contract, which is both expensive and contains an opt-out clause after the 2021 season.  While Arenado is a clear upgrade over virtually any other third baseman in the game and Matt Carpenter is coming off a rough 2019 campaign, Carpenter’s presence as the Cards’ in-house third base option further complicates matters since Carpenter is unlikely to carry much trade value.  In terms of moving him to another position, Paul Goldschmidt has first base covered, and Frederickson writes that “the team has thoroughly dismissed the notion of Carpenter spending time in the outfield again.”

2020 Arbitration Filing Numbers

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MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker is the place to go to see the arbitration contracts agreed upon thus far, as well as the figures exchanged between teams and players that were not able to reach agreement before today’s deadline to swap salary positions. Matt Swartz’s arbitration projections are available here.

After a busy day of dealmaking, 161 players (at last check) have reached agreement on arbitration salaries for the coming season. But 29 other tendered players have yet to reach reported agreements with their clubs. Of course, those players can still settle before their hearings (which will take place in early to mid-February). If the case goes to a hearing, the arbitrator must choose one side’s figures, rather than settling on a midpoint. It’s hardly an unusual number of unresolved cases at this stage, but there are quite a few high-dollar situations still at issue and teams have increasingly adopted a “file-and-trial” approach to the process in recent years. (That is, no negotiations on single-season salaries after the deadline to exchange figures.)

We’ve gathered the highest-stakes arbitration situations remaining in this post, but you can find them all in the tracker. We’ll update this list as the figures are reported:

Players Avoiding Arbitration: National League

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Entering the day, there were more than 150 players on the clock to exchange arbitration figures with their respective teams prior to a noon ET deadline. As one would expect, there’ll be an utter landslide of arbitration agreements in advance of that deadline. We already ran through some key facts and reminders on the arbitration process earlier this morning for those who are unfamiliar or simply need a refresher on one of MLB’s most complex idiosyncrasies, which will hopefully clear up many questions readers might have.

We’ll track the majority of the National League’s settlements in this post and are maintaining a separate one for American League settlements as well. Note that all projections referenced come courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz:

  • The Rockies have an agreement in place with righty Jon Gray, per Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post (via Twitter). It’s a $5.6MM deal, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link).
  • Outfielder Tommy Pham has struck a $7.9MM pact with the Padres, who acquired him at the outset of the offseason, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). Other Friars striking deals, per an update from Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune, include Zach Davies ($5.25MM) and Matt Strahm ($1.4MM).
  • The Nationals announced that they’ve avoided arbitration with Trea Turner. It’s a $7.45MM agreement, per Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post (via Twitter), right in range of the $7.5MM projection.
  • The Mets are in agreement with a laundry list of players. Right-handers Marcus Stroman ($12MM) and Noah Syndergaard ($9.7MM) were the top earners, per reports from MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter) and MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo (via Twitter). Both come in close to their projected values of $11.8M and $9.9MM, respectively. The Mets also have a $5.1MM deal with reliever Edwin Diaz, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports (Twitter links). He entered the offseason projected at the $7.0MM level but will fall well shy of that. Despite an outstanding overall track record, Diaz’s platform season was a dud and obviously created some risk in a hearing for his side. Outfielder Brandon Nimmo will play for $2.175MM in his first season of arb eligibility, landing well over the $1.7MM that the model projected. Southpaw Steven Matz, meanwhile, lands a $5MM deal, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter). That’s $300K shy of his projected amount. Relievers Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo will earn $1.225MM and $2MM, respectively, per Mike Puma of the New York Post (Twitter links). Slugger Michael Conforto will earn $8.0MM, per SNY.tv’s Andy Martino (via Twitter), which is notably south of the $9.2MM that we projected. And fellow outfielder Jake Marisnick checks in a just over 10% north of his projection at $3,312,500, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets.
  • Star reliever Kirby Yates receiveds a $7,062,500 salary from the Padres, per Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. He tops the $6.5MM that MLBTR projected by a solid margin, reflecting just how exceptional he was in 2019.
  • The Marlins will pay recently acquired infielder Jonathan Villar a $8.2MM salary, per MLB.com’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter). That’s a far sight shy of the $10.4MM that the MLBTR system projected, perhaps reflecting a more difficult path to the bigger number through recent comparables. The club also had some added leverage here since Villar would likely not fare terribly well on the open market if cut loose at this stage or later. (Unless this is a guaranteed deal, Villar could still be jettisoned, with the club paying just a fraction of the settled amount.) The Fish also have also agreed to terms with lefty Adam Conley (for $1.525MM, per MLB Network Radio’s Craig Mish, via Twitter) and righty Jose Urena (for $3.75MM, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman, on Twitter).
  • Righty Vince Velasquez will pitch for $3.6MM this year with the Phillies, per Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philly (via Twitter). Fellow hurler Jose Alvarez will earn $2.95MM, per Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer (via Twitter).
  • The Rockies have an agreement with lefty Kyle Freeland, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). He’ll earn $2.875MM. Outfielder David Dahl takes home $2.475MM, Heyman adds on Twitter. The former had projected at $2.4MM and the latter at $3.0MM.
  • Pirates hurler Joe Musgrove will receive $2.8MM, per Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (Twitter links). Fellow righty Keone Kela will earn a reported $3.725MM. Both players had projected at $3.4MM, but land well to either side of that number. Infielder Adam Frazier also has a deal at $2.8MM, per Mackey (via Twitter).
  • Righty Anthony DeSclafani will earn $5.9MM from the Reds, according to Robert Murray (via Twitter). He had projected at $5.2MM. Backstop Curt Casali will earn $1.4625MM, per Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer (Twitter link). And reliever Matt Bowman takes down $865K, Murray adds on Twitter.
  • The Dodgers have worked out a non-typical deal with righty Ross Stripling, Heyman tweets. He’ll get an up-front signing bonus of $1.5MM, which he’ll receive in the next week, and then earn $600K for the campaign to come. Stripling had projected to earn $2.3MM on the year.
  • Cardinals righty John Gant will earn $1.3MM after settling with the club. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch first tweeted that a deal was in place, while Murray had the number on Twitter. That comes in just under his $1.4MM projection.

Earlier Settlements

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Rockies To Sign Elias Diaz

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The Rockies have a minor-league deal in place with backstop Elias Diaz, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). Further details aren’t known.

Diaz, 29, received quite a few opportunities with the Pirates over the past several seasons but was cut loose after a rough 2019 season. He’ll do battle with Tony Wolters and Drew Butera in camp as the Colorado org looks to improve its catching situation in a cost-efficient manner.

The arrow was pointed up for Diaz in 2018, when he turned in a .286/.339/.452 batting line over 277 plate appearances. But he slumped back to his uninspiring 2017 levels in the just-completed campaign, providing the Bucs with just a .241/.296/.307 slash in 332 trips to the dish with bat in hand.

Teams will on occasion look past some brutal offensive numbers for defensively proficient backstops. But Diaz’s struggles extended to his efforts behind the dish. Indeed, he came in at the very bottom of the board compiled by Baseball Prospectus, which took a particularly dim view of Diaz’s framing efforts.

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