Trade Notes: Sellers, Dodgers, Papelbon, Jays, Twins
Dave Cameron of Fangraphs opines that we may be headed for the “most extreme sellers’ market in years” given the unprecedented parity in the American League and a lack of sellers in the National League. Only 8.5 games separate the best team in the AL and the second-worst, Cameron notes, and the worst club (the Athletics) can be reasonably expected to turn things around if one believes in the estimation of a context-neutral system like BaseRuns (of course, Oakland’s hole may be too deep to escape even if their luck turns). In the NL, only the Phillies and Brewers are clear sellers, and even potential sellers like the Diamondbacks and Marlins are loaded with young, controllable players as opposed to appealing veteran assets. The Reds and Rockies may eventually sell also, but they’re close enough to .500 at this time that they may wait until late in trade season to market their players. Cameron adds that if the Rox “really won’t trade Tulowitzki in this market, where there might not be another significant power hitter available, then they should just never trade him.” I’m inclined to agree that it’s difficult to imagine a better market for Colorado to move Tulowitzki, particularly if he continues a torrid hot streak that is silencing any previous concerns about his health.
A few more trade-related notes as we begin to get the time of year when teams will shift their focus to improving the 25-man roster…
- It’s no secret that the Dodgers could use a quality starter, and Mark Saxon of ESPNLosAngeles.com writes that the club is looking at the very top of the market. The top Dodgers target is Nationals righty Jordan Zimmermann. Other preferred names include Johnny Cueto of the Reds and David Price of the Tigers. Of course, it’s far from clear what kind of deal would interest contenders like Washington and Detroit, and Saxon notes that Los Angeles has no reason to believe at this point that Zimmermann could be had via trade. While Cueto is obviously expected to be available, it’s hard to imagine the other two arms being dealt barring some significant change (e.g., loss of a major player to injury or a rather dramatic slide in the standings) or serious creativity in structuring a deal.
- Phillies closer Jonathan Papelbon has seen his name in the news today, and ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark adds to the reports indicating that Philadelphia is increasingly interested in moving the veteran. Rivals think that the Phils may be looking to deal Papelbon sooner rather than later in order to get out ahead of other clubs that might sell off late-inning arms — namely, the Athletics (Tyler Clippard) and Reds (Aroldis Chapman).
- It remains to be seen what kind of return the Phillies can achieve on Papelbon, but the club’s apparent willingness to keep some of the salary obligations will obviously help on the prospect side of the equation. Corey Seidman of CSNPhilly.com attempts to gauge Papelbon’s value by looking at recent deals involving late-inning arms, indicating that the club might be interested in bolstering its organization depth with multiple prospects if it can’t pry loose a single player that it really likes.
- The Blue Jays undeniably have a need at the back of the pen, writes Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca, but the club does not seem any closer to reaching agreement on Papelbon. While the teams have indeed chatted recently, Davidi says that Philly is still not willing to take on enough of Papelbon’s salary to make an agreement palatable. And Toronto is not looking to part with its better minor league talent, perhaps buoyed by the fact that there is not a ton of demand for Papelbon. The Jays are definitely constrained by financial limitations, says Davidi, who sums it up thusly: “in all likelihood they have one, maybe two moves in them, so they can ill-afford a costly roll of the dice.”
- Twins GM Terry Ryan says that the failure of last year’s mid-season Kendrys Morales signing will not cause the team to pause in pursuing an upgrade this summer, as Derek Wetmore of 1500ESPN.com writes. “I would do it again if I had an opportunity,” Ryan said of the Morales move. “It just didn’t work.” He went on to say that the club is looking to see what it can do to take advantage of its nice start: “We’re doing pretty good and we certainly have to have our eyes open,” Ryan said. “We’re in contention, there’s no secret here. We have an opportunity to do some things and hopefully we’ll be able to.”
Minor Moves: Perry, Aardsma, Reimold
Here are the day’s minor moves:
- The Tigers have released righty Ryan Perry, according to the International League transactions page. Perry, 28, struggled badly this year at Triple-A amid injury issues, and the same could be said, more or less, of the prior two seasons as well. His career started with real promise — he rose quickly through the minors and tossed 124 1/3 frames of 3.69 ERA ball out of the Detroit pen back in 2009-10 — but has failed to remain on course since. The 2008 first-round pick returned to the Tigers as a minor league free agent this winter after a few seasons in the Nationals organization.
- Two veterans are headed back to the majors today, as the Braves selected the contract of just-signed reliever David Aardsma and the Orioles did the same with outfielder Nolan Reimold. Aardsma came to Atlanta after opting out of his deal with the Dodgers. He has thrown 19 2/3 solid innings at Triple-A, striking out 11.4 and walking 3.2 batters per nine en route to a 2.29 ERA. Reimold, who rejoined the Baltimore organization after departing last year, has slashed .286/.351/.389 over his 194 plate appearances at the highest level of the minors.
AL Central Notes: Price, Indians, Lindor, Santana
In an interview with Jon Morosi of FOX Sports (video link), Tigers ace David Price discussed his lasting connection with the Vanderbilt baseball program, the absence of Victor Martinez in his team’s lineup, his early picks for the AL Cy Young and, perhaps most interestingly to MLBTR readers, his upcoming free agency. Price says that free agency hasn’t been on his mind very often throughout the year to this point, as he tries to focus on the season at hand. Price adds that winning “takes precedent over everything else” when thinking about where he will play after 2015, but he feels the culture of the team will be important as well. “I want to have fun,” said Price. “There are some teams that are just a no-fun zone. I don’t care how much money I’m making. To me, I couldn’t imagine waking up and [not wanting to go to the field]. I couldn’t handle that. I’ll quit before that happens.” The 2012 Cy Young winner also reiterated that he wants a chance to win both immediately and long-term.
More from the AL Central…
- Zack Meisel of Cleveland.com looks at the Indians’ recent decision to option Lonnie Chisenhall and Jose Ramirez in favor of Zach Walters and Giovanny Urshela. Ramirez’s demotion was long overdue, says Meisel, but a lack of alternatives in the Majors delayed the decision. Meisel notes that the clock is ticking on a promotion for top prospect Francisco Lindor, and he also wonders if Chisenhall might’ve “burned through his last chance” with the Indians after another demotion.
- Via MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian (Twitter link), Indians GM Chris Antonetti said that Lindor was, in fact, a consideration to join the big league roster. However, Lindor has been bothered by some minor hand and core issues and is not currently at 100 percent. As Meisel noted in his piece, Lindor is slashing .295/.363/.446 over the past month after a slow start, so it’s fair to wonder just how much longer it will be before the consensus Top 10 prospect joins Cleveland’s big league roster. Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer tweets that he gets the sense that the team wants to see Lindor consistently perform at the Triple-A level before a promotion.
- The Twins have optioned struggling shortstop Danny Santana to Triple-A Rochester and recalled DH Kennys Vargas in his place. Both switch-hitters were in Minnesota’s Opening Day lineup, but each endured struggles. Santana received a longer leash than Vargas, who was optioned in early May, but the team seems to have run out of patience for the time being. Santana batted just .218/.235/.291 just one year after hitting .319/.353/.472 as a rookie. He’ll work on rediscovering his stroke and also cutting down on the errors at shortstop, but I’d imagine that with Jorge Polanco performing well at Double-A and being a more well-regarded defender, there’s a chance that Polanco could leapfrog Santana. As for Vargas, the hulking slugger hit .308/.403/.519 with three homers in 16 Triple-A games. He should get another chance to hold down Minnesota’s DH spot for the duration of the season. However, Twins DHs are hitting just .249/.308/.328, so if Vargas struggles, that may be an area they consider short-term upgrades this summer. In fact, I could envision the Twins looking for help at either of those positions in July, if they hang in near the top of the division.
Rosenthal’s Latest: Mets, Tigers, Yankees, Coghlan
The Mets appear to be keeping tabs on Brewers third baseman Aramis Ramirez and shortstop Jean Segura, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports in his latest video. Of the two, Ramirez is the more practical target for New York. He is expected to retire after the season and does not have a no-trade clause. The Mets are also interested in Ben Zobrist, but they believe other teams will outbid them.
- The Tigers may not need to buy at the trade deadline due to the impending returns of Justin Verlander, Victor Martinez, Bruce Rondon, and Alex Avila. The lineup has struggled to push runs across the plate, but they lead the AL in OBP. When asked by Rosenthal, GM Dave Dombrowski said there are no scenarios under which the club could become deadline sellers. That means David Price, Yoenis Cespedes, and Alfredo Simon are unlikely to be traded.
- The Yankees rotation may not be a priority at the trade deadline if the current starters remain healthy. In addition to the current options, Ivan Nova will begin a rehab assignment soon. Prospects Luis Severino and Bryan Mitchell provide further depth. The club could still acquire a star like Cole Hamels, but GM Brian Cashman says some of their top prospects are untouchable.
- The easiest position for the Cubs to upgrade is left field. Chris Coghlan is hitting just .224/.298/.421 on the season. An unusually low .245 BABIP explains his low average. The club could hope for BABIP regression or replace him in one of several ways. They could trade for somebody like Zobrist. Alternatively, Javier Baez could be promoted to man third base with Kris Bryant moving to the outfield.
Amateur Notes: Gourriel Brothers, Martinez, Draft
We’ve had a lot of news of players leaving Cuba of late, but two of the country’s most prominent names — brothers Yulieski and Lourdes Gourriel, rated first and fourth among the island’s players as big league prospects — have thus far not made any public moves towards the big leagues. As Ben Badler of Baseball America explains, however, both players are now set to miss the Cuban national team’s upcoming appearance in the Pan American Games. The younger of the two, Lourdes, was surprisingly left off the original roster, while Yulieski (the country’s biggest star) is said to have taken himself out of the tournament — after both recently seemed to have passed on chances to earn significant money playing in Japan. For now, it’s entirely unclear whether there is any movement afoot for the brothers to come stateside, but Badler notes that MLB clubs are watching with keen interest.
Here are some more amateur notes as we enter the final weekend before the draft:
- As he prepares to join the professional ranks after being declared a free agent, Cuban outfielder Eddy Julio Martinez has moved into the top spot on MLB.com’s international prospect list, as MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez writes. It’s unclear as yet whether Martinez will sign in this period or the new one beginning July 2, but he’ll have to put pen to paper in short order if he’s to head to the Yankees or Angels. Those two clubs will be unable to spend more than $300K after this July 2 class closes, and they are among the teams who Sanchez lists with interest. The Cubs, Blue Jays, Nationals, Rockies, Tigers, Dodgers, and Giants have also reached out to Martinez’s camp, per the report. “I’m working hard to get to my goal to play in the Major Leagues, ” says the 20-year-old. “That’s what I have always wanted to do.”
- The makeup of the amateur draft has changed over time, as Ben Lindbergh of Grantland explains. Mocking the draft is a more-or-less hopeless endeavor, says Lindbergh, but some trends have emerged. For one thing, the number of pitchers has continued to rise rather significantly. While this year’s class lacks premium talent, Christopher Crawford of Baseball Prospectus tells Lindbergh, some teams — the Rangers (who have the fourth overall pick) chief among them, based on their recent history — could well continue to stockpile arms. The Diamondbacks, who of course sit at first overall, have leaned toward position players recently, although they have an entirely new front office installed this time around. Meanwhile, the percentage of high school players taken has plummeted in the long run, but has jumped more recently. In particular, says Lindbergh, the Red Sox and Blue Jays have moved toward heavy drafting of prep players, who of course represent generally riskier but (in some cases) higher-upside investments. The Nationals have skewed most heavily toward college players — the spread is rather amazingly wide — though that could be due in part to draft circumstances. There are plenty more details in the piece, and I highly recommend a read to prepare for the coming draft.
- Bonus allocations (which come with the penalty of stark limitations in future drafts) have had a marked impact on clubs’ total outlay on draft-eligible talent, argues Ronald Blum of the Associated Press (via the Denver Post). Draft spending has remained flat over the last three years, with Blum calculating that an analogous increase of total cash commitments to that observed in free agency — which was often the case prior to the new rules — might have delivered an additional $100MM to amateur players over that span. This area is obviously full of complicated questions, including considerations of an international draft, and it’s extremely difficult to identify clear-cut solutions. The piece is full of interesting quotes from notable figures around the game, and is well worth a full read.
AL Central Notes: Hahn, Castellanos, Perez
Let’s take a look in at the AL Central, which is currently fronted by a surprising Twins club — though not due to the poor performance of the rest of the division. With the Indians streaking and the Royals and Tigers still looking like threats, to say nothing of a White Sox team that is still in the picture as well, it’s probably not too soon to call this the most competitive division in baseball.
- White Sox GM Rick Hahn says that he still expects several players to improve their play back toward their career norms, as MLB.com’s Scott Merkin reports. While Hahn rightly notes that there’s still plenty of time, of course, the AL Central does not look like the easiest division to make a run at from behind. That means that Chicago will increasingly need to consider “contingency plans,” as Merkin puts it, if buying at the deadline does not make sense. “Marching orders for our scouts heading out of Spring Training were looking at our positions of need at the big league level and targeting guys to help shore those up for a stretch run,” explains Hahn. “At the same time, we have our pro scouts out at the Minor League level preparing for, should we need to go the other way, and look at more prospect-focused deals. At this point, our intent is to look to add at the Deadline and put ourselves in a better position to win.”
- Young Tigers third baseman Nick Castellanos has always seemed primed to hit in the big leagues, though that remains a work in progress. While he has yet to turn things on at the dish, however, he has made a significant improvement in his glovework, as Grantland’s Ben Lindbergh examines. Castellanos acknowledges that “the game definitely got fast for [him] a little bit” at third after a long pause in his work at that position. It took a lot of work and subtle adjustments, but Lindbergh explains that Castellanos has made strides in completing more difficult plays, especially on balls hit down the line. Certainly, the overall improvement bodes well for his long-term ability to stick at third, though his bat will need to come around as well.
- Fellow infielder Hernan Perez is now on the move from the Tigers after being claimed by the Brewers yesterday. GM Dave Dombrwoski says that he had attempted to recoup some value from Perez in trade, but interest was minimal. While that gave some hope that he’d get through waivers, it didn’t prove to be the case. (Video link via MLive.com.)
Brewers Claim Hernan Perez, Designate Elian Herrera
The Brewers have claimed infielder Hernan Perez off waivers from the Tigers, Milwaukee announced. To clear a roster spot, the club designated utilityman Elian Herrera for assignment.
Perez, 24, has seen very brief playing time at the major league level in each of the last four seasons. In 647 Triple-A plate appearances, he slashed .280/.321/.387 while adding 21 stolen bases. The Venezuelan native has split his time as a professionally evenly between shortstop and second base.
Meanwhile, the 30-year-old Herrera has delivered a career .249/.304/.343 slash line in 470 turns at bat in the majors, all compiled in sporadic action over 2012-15. He is a true utility player, having spent time at all three outfield spots and every infield position left of first base. Herrera has had some success at the plate at the Triple-A level, where he owns a .307/.375/.431 batting line in just over 1,000 plate appearances.
AL Notes: Gallo, Plouffe, Rondon, Mariners
The Rangers made an aggressive move in bringing up top prospect Joey Gallo, even if it promises to be short-lived, and Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News discusses what it means. It could be that the club truly believes that Gallo is ready, in spite of the fact that his huge power has been accompanied by a sizable strikeout rate. More likely, as GM Jon Daniels suggested, is that the big league club can not only use Gallo for the interim, but provides a good current environment for him to get his first taste of the bigs. “The deciding factor was that we are really confident in the environment, the culture and the clubhouse,” Daniels explained. “It’s a good spot for a young player. We have a lot of confidence in our staff and in the value sitting next to Adrian Beltre and Prince Fielder and learning.”
- Twins third baseman Trevor Plouffe is off to a nice start, sporting a 135 wRC+ at the plate and continuing to look like at least an average defender at third after struggling earlier in his career. While Miguel Sano is waiting in the wings, he could still end up moving off of the hot corner. Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN wonders (Twitter link) whether there is an extension format that would make sense for both Minnesota and Plouffe. He should be in line for a hefty raise over his $4.8MM salary, and can be controlled for the 2017 season as well, meaning that the club would likely need to plunk some really money down to get a deal done.
- Righty Bruce Rondon is finally nearing activation for the Tigers, which presents some welcome roster complications, as James Schmehl of MLive.com reports. Detroit will certainly hope that Rondon and his big-time stuff can help anchor the club’s pen at some point this year, but Schmehl says it’s possible he won’t head straight to the big leagues even when he’s ready physically. The three candidates for demotion — Angel Nesbitt, Alex Wilson, and Al Alburquerque — all have options, so there’s plenty of flexibility.
- While it’s not clear how much urgency there is at this point on the calendar, the Mariners are “trying” to add an arm, Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune tweets in response to a reader. Seattle’s staff has produced middle-of-the-road results on the whole, but some notable struggles (Taijuan Walker and Fernando Rodney both have allowed over six earned runs per nine) and injuries (Hisashi Iwakuma and James Paxton) have opened some space for an addition.
AL Notes: Beltre, Tigers, Twins, Featherston
The Blue Jays‘ acquisition of Josh Donaldson now appears to be one of GM Alex Anthopoulos’ better moves, Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith tweets. The third baseman has 15 homers and an outstanding .312/.372/.604 slash line through his first 227 plate appearances, and Donaldson’s 3.0 fWAR (entering today’s action) is topped only by Bryce Harper. Donaldson is controlled through 2018 and looks to be a cornerstone piece for the Jays both now and in future seasons. Here’s some more from around the American League…
- Adrian Beltre left today’s game with a sprained left thumb and while x-rays were negative, he’ll very likely be placed on the 15-day disabled list, MLB.com’s Dave Sessions writes. The Rangers have enough internal infield options that they aren’t likely to explore outside help unless Beltre is forced to miss an extended period of time. The 36-year-old Beltre has been having a down season (.257/.294/.408 in 221 PA) but was still providing his customary excellent third base defense.
- The much-maligned Tigers bullpen has become a strength for the team, Mlive.com’s James Schmehl writes. Detroit’s relievers entered Sunday with a 2.91 ERA, the seventh-lowest bullpen ERA in baseball. Advanced metrics (3.69 FIP, 4.07 xFIP) paint a more pessimistic view of the bullpen’s performance, yet the Tigers will happily take it after some frustrating relief breakdowns in recent years.
- Twins GM Terry Ryan told reporters (including Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press) that his team will make the sixth overall pick in the amateur draft based on talent, and won’t be scared off from taking a player due to injury concerns. This could be a reference to Brady Aiken or Michael Matuella, two top draft prospects who recently underwent Tommy John surgery. ESPN1500’s Darren Wolfson tweets that the Twins and other clubs recently received some new information about Aiken and that Minnesota was “very high on” Aiken last year.
- Rule 5 Draft pick Taylor Featherston is appreciating his time in the majors as a learning experience, though as Fangraphs’ David Laurila points out, having Rule 5 status isn’t necessarily a good thing for a player’s development. Featherston has just one hit in 33 PA with the Angels and has appeared in just 25 games for the club. He must remain on the Halos’ Major League roster all season or else be offered back to his old club (the Rockies) for $25K.
- Also from Laurila’s notes piece, veteran catcher Eddy Rodriguez had more or less called it a career and planning to take a year away from the game before being offered a minor league contract from the Yankees. “When the pinstripes come calling, it’s hard to say no,” Rodriguez said. He is already unofficially working as a player-coach and mentor at the Triple-A level and seems a lock to find a coaching job once he finally hangs up his cleats.
Quick Hits: Greene, Jones, Drew, Rodriguez, Davis
Tigers starter Shane Greene was never a highly touted prospect or big bonus guy, writes Eno Sarris of ESPN (Insider required). However, Greene’s path to the majors is an interesting story of perseverance. Greene’s father arranged a showcase for Yankee scout Jeff Deardorff. After a strong sandlot performance, the scout invited him to Tampa to throw to hitters. A week later, he was drafted by the Yankees in the 15th round. That’s the story from a high level, but it’s the details that make it interesting. The article is definitely worth a read if you have Insider access.
Here’s more from around the league to round out your Saturday evening:
- The Yankees acquired first baseman Garrett Jones over the winter to serve as depth for oft-injured sluggers like Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez, writes Joel Sherman of the New York Post. However, the aging stars have remained healthy so playing time has been scarce for Jones. With the Cardinals in need of a platoon bat to share time with Mark Reynolds, there is some pressure to trade Jones. However, Sherman wonders if the Yankees lineup could survive a Teixeira injury. Would Rodriguez also land on the disabled list if he was forced onto the field? Could Jose Pirela or Stephen Drew cover third if Chase Headley shifts to first. These are questions that GM Brian Cashman must answer before dealing Jones.
- The Yankees have stuck with Drew despite an abysmal performance, writes Chad Jennings of LoHud. He has hit just .158/.226/.303. He continues to start despite the presence of prospect Jose Pirela on the active roster and Rob Refsnyder at Triple-A. Jennings offers five theories as to why Drew continues to play. In my opinion, they just want to get a full evaluation of Drew before deciding on Plan B.
- The Red Sox haven’t developed a reliable pitching prospect since they called up Clay Buchholz in 2007, writes Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald. Bostonians hope that Eduardo Rodriguez is the first example in a reversal of that trend. Rodriguez dominated in his debut. He threw seven-and-two-thirds innings with seven strikeouts, two walks, three hits, and no runs. The club will temporarily use a six-man rotation to give Rodriguez a second audition. It’s not hard to imagine him taking the place of Wade Miley, Rick Porcello, or Joe Kelly if they continue to struggle.
- Brewers outfielder Khris Davis has torn the meniscus in his right-knee, tweets Adam McCalvy of MLB.com. He’ll undergo surgery on Tuesday. Davis is hitting .252/.339/.449 in 168 plate appearances. While no timetable has been announced, past meniscus surgeries have required six to eight weeks of recovery – sometimes more if there are other complicating factors. The Milwaukee lineup has been plagued by various injuries this season, only Adam Lind has been available every day.