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Central Notes: Twins, Scherzer, Shields, Samardzija

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We've heard a lot today on the Twins' interest in acquiring starting pitching, with two of the market's top arms — Ricky Nolasco and Matt Garza — both being mentioned as realistic targets. The club is willing to hand out as many as five years in a deal with a starter, Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN reports via Twitter. Minnesota is definitely interested in both Nolasco and Garza, he adds, though that isn't to say it would necessarily go to five years on either or both. Here's more on the starting pitching in baseball's central divisions:

  • Though he says he understands the business logic that could force him to be traded, Tigers ace (and newly-minted Cy Young winner) Max Scherzer told MLB Network's Jim Bowden (on SiriusXM) that he hopes that does not occur. Scherzer said that he and agent Scott Boras had indicated to Detroit that he was "open to" an extension, but acknowledged that "no actual dialogue has been talked or anything like that." Ultimately, said Scherzer, he will "see how the business game works out and whether or not we go down that path."
  • Meanwhile, Boras acknowledged that GM Dave Dombrowski would likely "invite a number of people to come in and look at all of his diamonds," referring to Detroit's most attractive trade assets. "But in the end I don't think Dave is in the business of anything other than what Mr. Illitch's goal is, and that is to win a world championship," Boras continued. As he further explained, Dombrowski could be discussing Scherzer with other clubs in part to guage his value and to see how those teams value their own players.
  • Royals starter James Shields says that he has not had any talks with his club about an extension, ESPN.com's Jim Bowden reports via Twitter. Shields, who is in the last year of his deal, did say that he is open to exploring a new contract that would keep him in Kansas City. Having dealt recently-anointed AL Rookie of the Year Wil Myers to get Shields, one would think that GM Dayton Moore will at least make an attempt to secure his services beyond 2014. 
  • Cubs GM Jed Hoyer indicated that the club has talked about an extension with starter Jeff Samardzija, David Kaplan of CSNChicago.com reports via Twitter. "We've had discussions with Samardzija because we like him and want to keep him," said Hoyer. "We'll see where things go. We like hearing he wants to be here." Hoyer's comments seem to make an extension for the 28-year-old seem more plausible than we've recently heard. Absent a new deal, Samardzija will hit the open market before the 2016 season.
  • The Cubbies' GM also emphasized that the front office was not going to change its approach to placate anxious fans Kaplan also tweets. "We will not hit the fast forward button on our plan simply because people are impatient," Hoyer said. "It will make it worth it in the end."

Miguel Cabrera, Andrew McCutchen Win MVP Awards

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Tigers third baseman Miguel Cabrera and Pirates center fielder Andrew McCutchen were respectively announced as the American League and National League Most Valuable Players, according to the Baseball Writers Association of America.

This is the second consecutive year that Cabrera has captured the MVP trophy, making it three years in a row that a Detroit player has won the award after Justin Verlander's MVP year in 2011.  While Cabrera's 2013 season lacked the history of his 2012 Triple Crown campaign, he achieved another unique treble by leading the league in every slash line category (.348/.442/.636) and also hitting 44 homers and 137 RBI. 

Cabrera captured 23 of 30 first-place votes from the writers and finished second on the other seven ballots.  Angels outfielder Mike Trout was Cabrera's runner-up for the second straight year, claiming five first-place votes and 19 second-place votes.  Orioles first baseman Chris Davis and Athletics third baseman Josh Donaldson each received one first place vote and finished third and fourth overall on the ballot, with Yankees second baseman (and free agent) Robinson Cano finishing fifth.

McCutchen's race to the MVP Award wasn't nearly as close, as he captured a whopping 28 of 30 first-place votes.  McCutchen was an all-around threat, hitting .317/.404/.508 with 21 homers, stealing 27 bases, scoring 97 runs and providing a strong (+8.4 UZR.150) glove in center field — he generated 8.2 WAR according to both Fangraphs and Baseball Reference.  He becomes the first Pirate to win the MVP since Barry Bonds in 1992.

Diamondbacks first baseman Paul Goldschmidt finished second in the balloting despite not receiving any first-place votes.  Cardinals catcher Yadier Molina received those other two firsts and finished in third place, followed by teammate Matt Carpenter in fourth and Braves first baseman Freddie Freeman in fifth place.

AL Notes: Beltran, Royals, Scherzer, Yankees

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Carlos Beltran wouldn't mind returning to the Royals, writes MLB.com's Dick Kaegel. "I think it would be a great story if it happens for me to go back," Beltran says of the possibility of again playing for the team with which he began his big-league career. Unsurprisingly, though, he isn't ready to commit to anything just yet, with seven to ten teams that might want to sign him, including many from big markets. "[T]here are just a lot of teams that have interest in my services, but we haven't talked about the number of years or the money; everything is preliminary right now," says Beltran. Here's more from the American League.

  • The Royals would like to sign starting pitcher Josh Johnson, ESPN's Buster Olney tweets. Johnson appears to be a high-upside gamble and is a good team player, Olney says, and he might be available on a one-year contract.
  • AL Cy Young winner Max Scherzer wouldn't mind signing an extension to stay with the Tigers, Chris Iott of MLive.com writes. "I am open (to a new contract)," says Scherzer. "I realize I have it good here in Detroit. But it also takes two to dance." Scherzer is due to become a free agent after the 2014 season and should be in line for a huge payday. His agent, Scott Boras, sometimes negotiates pre-free agency extensions for his clients, but often prefers to have them test free agency. The Tigers also could trade Scherzer or another starter this offseason.
  • The Yankees are unlikely to sign big-name free agents right away, reports Andrew Marchand of ESPN New York. They do not expect Brian McCann or Beltran to agree to a contract before they know what their options are, and so the only way to sign those players right now would be to make them offers that are difficult to refuse. Marchand notes that the Yankees like Beltran better than Jacoby Ellsbury or Shin-Soo Choo because Ellsbury and Choo would require longer contracts.

Morosi On Fister, Hammel, Giants, Fowler, Mariners

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Here's the latest from FOX Sports' Jon Morosi:

  • The Tigers are "gauging interest" in starting pitcher Doug Fister as well as Max Scherzer and Rick Porcello (Twitter link). Morosi repeats a bit of trade speculation from a reader who suggests that Fister for Angels second baseman Howie Kendrick might be a good fit (link). That doesn't even rise to the level of a rumor at this point, but it's interesting, given the Tigers' need for a second baseman and the Angels' desires to add pitching while keeping payroll down.
  • The Giants are interested in free agent pitcher Jason Hammel and have asked to see his medical records (link). Hammel posted a 4.97 ERA with 6.2 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 in a down year with the Orioles in 2013.
  • The Mariners have Rockies outfielder Dexter Fowler on their radar as a potential trade target (link). The Mariners have been connected to any number of outfielders already this offseason, so it's unsurprising that they would be interested in Fowler, who hit .263/.369/.407 in 2013. Fowler is set to earn $7.35MM in 2014.

Latest On Brian Wilson

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General Manager Brian Cashman told reporters, including Andy McCullough of the Star-Ledger (on Twitter), that you can rule out the Yankees signing Brian Wilson after his agent told the team he won't shave his beard.  While you ponder that, here's the latest on Wilson..

  • Tim Brown of Yahoo Sports (on Twitter) hears that the most interested teams are the Giants, Dodgers, Indians, Tigers, Rockies, Mariners, and Red Sox.  The Reds could also jump in, depending on whether Aroldis Chapman moves to the rotation.

Free Agent Profile: Jhonny Peralta

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Jhonny Peralta was enjoying one of the finest seasons of his career when he was connected to the Biogenesis clinic this summer. Soon after, MLB slammed 12 players, including Peralta, with 50-game suspensions. Peralta's strong season at the plate is now tainted, and he'll have to try to overcome the negative impact of that suspension in free agency this offseason.

Strengths/Pros

Peralta is a career .268/.330/.425 hitter, translating to a 101 OPS+ and 102 wRC+. In other words, he's one to two percent better than a league-average hitter, which is an incredibly valuable trait to have as a shortstop. Over the past five seasons, shortstops have collectively posted wRC+ ratings between 83 and 88. Peralta's robust .303/.358/.457 line from 2013 translated to a mark of 123.

His glove was shaky early on in his career, but both Ultimate Zone Rating and The Fielding Bible's Defensive Runs Saved metric agree that Peralta has improved tremendously in recent years. Peralta has a +9.1 UZR/150 dating back to 2009, and DRS has him at +4 runs in that stretch. Peralta-JhonnyPeralta offers positional flexibility, having totaled 1742 big league innings at third base as well, though neither defensive metric likes him as much at the hot corner.

Peralta shows a slight platoon split, but he's been able to hold his own against right-handed pitching throughout his career, slashing .270/.326/.416. In 2013, he hit righties at a .282/.338/.412 clip. He has enough bat against both right-handers and left-handers to be an everyday player.

Peralta broke into the league as a full-time player at the age of 23, so while it seems like he's been around for a long time, he's still just 31 years old and won't turn 32 until late May of 2014. Peralta will be younger than every notable free agent third baseman and every notable free agent shortstop outside of Stephen Drew.

He's been highly durable throughout his career, averaging 149 games per season and, incredibly, never landing on the disabled list at any point in his Major League tenure.

Given the Tigers' acquisition of Jose Iglesias, the team elected not to extend a qualifying offer to Peralta and risk having to deploy him in left field or at second base. Unlike his main competition — Drew — signing Peralta will not require draft pick forfeiture.

Weaknesses/Cons

Peralta's career numbers at the plate look solid, but he's been wildly inconsistent on a year-to-year basis. Peralta has five seasons of an OPS+/wRC+ greater than 100 (i.e. better than league average), one in the low 90s and three in the mid-80s. In particular, his power seems to fluctuate, as he owns four 20+ homer seasons but has hit between 11 and 15 long balls in every other big league season he's played. He'd be compensated much more handsomely if he could show consistent 20-homer pop.

Peralta may have posted a .303 batting aveage in 2013, but that mark was clearly boosted by a career-high .374 batting average on balls in play. He won't repeat that number in 2013, and it's reasonable to expect his average to drop accordingly, perhaps even lower than his career .268 mark, as Peralta's strikeout rate jumped to 21.9 percent this season.

If Peralta's average comes down, he could post an OBP below the league average, as he did in 2009, 2010 and 2012, due to the fact that he's walked at just an 8.3 percent clip for his career. Unlike his average and power totals, that number has remained pretty constant, and he was at 7.8 percent this year.

Peralta's connection to PEDs brings into question just how much of his 2013 performance was natural. A player with such a sterling medical history can hardly make the claim that he was using banned substances to help speed up his timetable for recovery from an injury.

Personal

Peralta and his wife, Molly, have three daughters and make their home in the Cleveland suburb of Westlake, per the Tigers media guide. His teammates defended him after the suspension, with Hunter in particular offering praise (via MLive.com's Chris Iott): "If you know Jhonny — and a lot of people don't know Jhonny — but if you know Jhonny, awesome guy. Awesome guy. He just made a mistake." Verlander called Peralta his "brother," noting that he could hold no grudge against a man who admitted to making a mistake and serving the penalty for it.

Market

Peralta has made it clear that he'd like to return to the Tigers, but with Iglesias installed at shortstop and top prospect Nick Castellanos serving as an in-house possibility for left field, the Tigers simply don't have much room on the roster to keep Peralta around.

If and when the Tigers move on, Peralta and agent Fern Cuza of SFX shouldn't have any problem finding interested contenders willing to offer a multiyear deal. Shortstops are always in demand, and in spite of his inconsistencies, Peralta has averaged 2.8 fWAR and 2.6 rWAR over the past six seasons.

Even in his worst seasons, Peralta has been a considerable upgrade over what the Cardinals received from Pete Kozma this season. The Pirates could look to upgrade over Jordy Mercer's shaky glove if they feel he can't repeat this year's .368 second-half BABIP (which, obviously, is quite unlikely). Given uncertainty surrounding Ruben Tejada's status and a stated desire to spend on free agency, the Mets could be a logical landing place as well. Oakland could use Peralta at shortstop and slide Jed Lowrie over to second base, but they may be hesitant to meet his asking price and may not want to block Addison Russell's path to the Majors.

Peralta could also appeal to teams that need help at third base. In that regard, a return to Cleveland could make sense, and Angels could also use an upgrade at the position. Signing Peralta would give them the luxury to aggressively shop Erick Aybar as well. The Dodgers could also look to upgrade at third if they don't retain Juan Uribe.

Expected Contract

Suspension aside, Peralta is a typically solid bat at a premium position who can boast being youthful enough that he's not yet entering his decline phase. Peralta is a league-average bat with upside for much more and whose floor would only drop him to roughly league-average for his position. Players like that are scarce on the free agent market.

Cuza seems likely to target four years for Peralta on the open market, and his best bet may very well be to try to start a bidding war between two teams with a clear need such as the Cardinals and Mets. Marco Scutaro's three-year, $20MM contract with the Giants seems too light, given Peralta's offensive track record, so I expect Peralta to sign a three-year, $36MM contract.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Minor Moves: Paulino, Boscan

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Here's a look at today's minor moves from around baseball.

  • The Tigers have signed catcher Ronny Paulino to a minor-league deal, CBS Sports' Jon Heyman tweets. Paulino, 32, hit .250/.337/.348 in limited action at the minor-league level in 2013. He last appeared in the Majors with the Orioles in 2012, and he has a career big-league line of .272/.324/.376.
  • The Dodgers have signed catcher J.C. Boscan to a minor-league deal and invited him to spring training, MLBTR's Tim Dierkes tweets. Boscan hit .232/.297/.270 in 258 plate appearances for the Cubs' Triple-A Iowa affiliate in 2013. He has 30 career big-league plate appearances.

AL Central Notes: Wilson, Royals, Pierzynski

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The Tigers have interest in Brian Wilson as well as Joe Nathan, Jon Morosi of FOX Sports tweets. Wilson was terrific in 2013 after making his return from Tommy John surgery in late August, allowing one run in 13 2/3 late-season innings with the Dodgers and also pitching well in the playoffs. In late October, MLBTR's Steve Adams predicted Wilson would get a one-year, $8.5MM deal in free agency. Here's more from around the AL Central.

  • The Royals would sacrifice their 2014 first-round pick for the right free agent, the Kansas City Star's Bob Dutton reports. After winning 86 games in 2013, the Royals have the No. 19 pick in next year's draft. "It’s part of the evaluation process," says GM Dayton Moore. "[I]f a player really makes sense and can help us win, we’re not going to be overly concerned with that." Dutton notes that Carlos Beltran, Nelson Cruz and Curtis Granderson, all of whom rejected qualifying offers, might be possibilities, since the Royals are looking for extra power in the outfield.
  • The Twins are interested in signing catcher A.J. Pierzynski, who played in Minnesota from 1998 through 2003, writes CBS Sports' Jon Heyman. With Joe Mauer moving to first base, the Twins have an opening at catcher. Heyman reports that they would like to sign Pierzynski for one year, and it's probably unlikely any team would sign the soon-to-be-37-year-old Pierzynski for more than one year. Steve Adams predicts Pierzynski is in line for a one-year, $6.5MM deal.
    Read more here: http://www.kansascity.com/2013/11/12/4616487/royals-willing-to-lose-first-round.html#storylink=cpy

AL Central Rumors: Pierzynski, Kazmir, Beltran

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The latest from the AL Central..

Offseason Outlook: Detroit Tigers

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The Tigers made a return to the American League Championship Series in 2013 but saw themselves on the outside looking in for a second straight season, with the Red Sox advancing to the Fall Classic.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses)

Free Agents

The first order of business this offseason was shored up when Detroit hired Brad Ausmus as their new skipper, giving the former catcher a three-year deal despite no prior Major League managerial experience. The Tigers will hope that Ausmus is adept at managing a clubhouse as Mike Matheny has been in St. Louis. With that out of the way, on-field issues can be addressed.

Two players that won't be returning are Jhonny Peralta and Brayan Pena, but the Tigers have in-house replacements ready to go. Detroit acquired the slick-fielding Jose Iglesias in this summer's three-team trade with the White Sox and Red Sox, and the Rookie of the Year runner-up is set to man the position for years to come. The Tigers said early that Pena would be allowed to test the open market in favor of in-house options Bryan Holaday and James McCann, and Pena responded quickly by inking a two-year pact with the Reds.

Second base and left field could be addressed on the free agent market. Some have speculated that the Tigers could be fits for top free agents Jacoby Ellsbury (despite the presence of Jackson) and Shin-Soo Choo. Both would provide major upgrades to the lineup, and there's probably not a lot of harm in delaying a full-time role for Castellanos until 2015, when he'll still be just 23 years old. In that scenario, Fielder and Cabrera could split time between DH and first base, with Castellanos moving to his natural position of third base.

It'd make sense for Detroit to pursue a reunion with Infante, and the free-spending Tigers have to at least be mentioned as a dark-horse candidate for Robinson Cano. Given their commitments to Verlander, Fielder and Sanchez plus the increasingly pressing need to address a Cabrera extension, Cano, Ellsbury and Choo seem to be unlikely targets. However, owner Mike Ilitch could consider one of them the final piece needed to secure a World Series championship in his lifetime.

The Tigers marched to the 2013 ALCS with the game's most dominant rotation with the American League's most dominant rotation in terms of ERA (3.44) and Major League Baseball's most dominant rotation in terms of innings pitched (1,023), FIP (3.12) and fWAR (25.3). That entire group is set to return in 2014, but there are rumblings that Scherzer is on the trading block this offseason, as the Tigers can afford to deal from that depth and know they have little to no chance of extending the Scott Boras standout with his first taste of free agency so close at hand. Porcello's name has also come up in recent trade rumblings.

Any trade involving Scherzer could be used as a means to fill the team's hole at second base with Infante departing, and it could also bring in a more impactful bat behind the plate than Avila. The Tigers badly need bullpen depth, but a hard-throwing, high-upside reliever would be a mere complementary piece in a Scherzer trade as opposed to a focal point. Left field presents a need as well, though Castellanos could be a cost-effective option at that position.

Porcello would command a lesser return, though he's incredibly yet to turn 25 years old (he will in December). Porcello has two years of team control remaining and is coming off his best season in terms of strikeouts (142 total, 7.1 K/9), ground-ball rate (55.3 percent), FIP (3.53), xFIP (3.19) and fWAR (3.2). His 4.32 ERA doesn't paint as pretty a picture, but it was the second-best mark of his career.

The presence of Drew Smyly allows Detroit to consider moving one of Scherzer or Porcello, but it's fair to wonder if such a trade would simply worsen what was arguably the team's biggest weakness — bullpen depth.

The Tigers may have enviable depth in the rotation, but that is not the case when it comes to their relief corps. Dombrowski and Co. elected to stay in-house last offseason and were met with a carousel early in the season that led to the return of Jose Valverde. While Papa Grande stabilized the position briefly, he soon melted down and found himself designated for assignment. Benoit solidified the position for the remainder of the season but now finds himself a free agent.

A reunion with Benoit would make sense and could cost something like $16MM over a two-year term, but the prize of the relief market is likely Joe Nathan. There's mutual interest between the Tigers and the 39-year-old Nathan, who leads all active pitchers in saves. Nathan is coming off the second-best ERA (1.39) and the best ERA+ (297) of his storied career. MLBTR's Tim Dierkes projected a two-year, $26MM contract for Nathan, and the Tigers are one team that could afford to pay him so lavishly. Theoretically, the Tigers may even be able to add Nathan and still ink Benoit on a two-year deal as a setup man.

The Tigers could also use a left-handed reliever. Coke is a non-tender candidate after a brutal 5.40 ERA, and the team already lost Darin Downs on waivers to the Astros. Names like Javier Lopez, J.P. Howell and Boone Logan are all available on the free agent market for lefty relievers.

Ultimately, the Tigers could stand pat this offseason and still perhaps be considered the front-runners for the AL Central crown, but don't expect that to happen. Dombrowski has routinely made significant additions over the past several seasons, and he's often acted quickly. Recent November moves have included the signings of Benoit, Martinez and Hunter as well as the Peralta's extension in 2010. The Tigers have a clear need at second base and figure to be aggressive in their pursuit of bullpen help as they look to capitalize on their brilliant rotation and the prime years of Cabrera's career.

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