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Aroldis Chapman Review

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With all the information swirling around about free agent lefty Aroldis Chapman, I thought a summary would be helpful.  Chapman has been declared a free agent and can sign at any time, though a deal is unlikely before the conclusion of the World Series.  One GM told Yahoo's Tim Brown in July, "I'm sure all 30 teams will be interested to some degree."  Nonetheless, let's look at specific suitors.

  • Red Sox:  They've been a top suitor from the start.  Kiley McDaniel of Baseball Prospectus says Chapman was scheduled to throw a bullpen at Fenway today but it was cancelled due to inclement weather.  ESPN's Peter Gammons believes Boston's signing of former Chapman teammate Jose Iglesias may impact the pitcher's decision.
  • Yankees: They've also been a top suitor from the start.  ESPN's Jorge Arangure Jr. said Chapman met with GM Brian Cashman and other Yanks officials at the October 25th playoff game and "had good conversations."  Several reporters see Chapman as another Yankees-Red Sox battle. 
  • Mariners: Add them to the list – our source says they'd like to meet with Chapman in the next week.
  • Cardinals: A scheduled October 26th meeting was cancelled due to the Tony La Russa announcement.  The meeting is expected to be rescheduled.
  • Orioles: They've maintained interest and are pushing for a meeting soon.  In September, president Andy MacPhail admitted interest to MASN's Roch Kubatko, but added, "If some of the big boys are going to go after him, like the Red Sox did with Dice-K, that's not a risk that I would be willing to take."
  • Mets: They met with Chapman on October 23rd.  The New York Post's Bart Hubbuch said the Mets were out after being told Chapman wants up to $60MM to sign.  I'm not so sure the Mets and Chapman actually discussed dollar figures.
  • Tigers: They've confirmed interest.
  • Angels:  Scouting director Eddie Bane admitted interest in July, but noted that Chapman's breaking pitches are not yet effective in talking to Mark Saxon of the OC Register.  Bane more recently told Bill Shaikin of the L.A. Times that he'd need to see Chapman throw against live hitters before investing.  Chapman has mentioned L.A. as a place he'd like to visit.
  • White Sox:  Our source said they've expressed interest.
  • Cubs: Our source said they've expressed interest.
  • Athletics:  Named by Arangure Jr. as one of the teams "paying varying degrees of attention to Chapman."  Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle confirmed Oakland's interest but says they haven't met with him.
  • Giants:  Named by Arangure Jr. as one of the teams "paying varying degrees of attention to Chapman."
  • Dodgers: They aren't likely to be serious suitors, according to one of Arangure Jr.'s sources.
  • Blue Jays:  We named the Jays as an interested club, but GM Alex Anthopoulos told reporters that signing Chapman is "not realistic."
  • Astros: Owner Drayton McLane seemingly considers Chapman too pricey, based on his comments to Richard Justice of the Houston Chronicle.

Offseason Outlook: Detroit Tigers

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Next up in our Offseason Outlook series, the Tigers.  Their likely commitments for 2010:

C – Gerald Laird – $2.8MM+
C – Alex Avila – $400K
1B – Miguel Cabrera – $20MM
2B – Scott Sizemore – $400K
SS – Ramon Santiago – $825K+
3B – Brandon Inge – $6.6MM
IF – Brent Dlugach – $400K
LF – Carlos Guillen – $13MM
CF – Curtis Granderson – $5.5MM
RF – Magglio Ordonez – $18MM
OF – Ryan Raburn – $410K
OF – Clete Thomas – $403K
DH – Marcus Thames – $2.275MM+

SP – Justin Verlander – $3.675MM+
SP – Edwin Jackson – $2.2MM+
SP – Rick Porcello – $1.025MM
SP – Nate Robertson – $10MM
SP – Jeremy Bonderman – $12.5MM

Other candidates: Dontrelle Willis – $12MM, Armando Galarraga – $435K

RP – Joel Zumaya – $735K+
RP – Ryan Perry – $400K
RP – Bobby Seay – $1.3MM+
RP – Zach Miner – $438K+
RP – Armando Galarraga – $435K
RP – Fu-Te Ni – $400K
RP – Freddy Dolsi – $407K

Non-tender candidates: Marcus Thames, Matt Treanor

The Tigers have about $116.5MM committed before arbitration raises to Laird, Santiago, Thames, Verlander, Jackson, Zumaya, Seay, Miner, and Treanor.  Thames and Treanor could be non-tendered, but the raises should easily exceed $10MM.  The Tigers could be approaching $130MM committed after entering 2009 at $115MM (according to Cot's Baseball Contracts).

Given the payroll limitations and his recent history, GM Dave Dombrowski does not figure to be heavily involved with free agents.  Last year he went the trade route to acquire Jackson, Laird, and Josh Anderson and signed free agents Adam Everett, Brandon Lyon, Treanor, and Ni for a total of $6.5MM.

With 2009 starters Placido Polanco and Everett eligible for free agency, the Tigers' middle infield is up in the air.  Sizemore is still the favorite to take over at second base despite suffering a broken ankle in the Arizona Fall League.  Sizemore, 25 in January, hit .308/.378/.473 in 330 Triple A plate appearances this year.  Assuming manager Jim Leyland still views Santiago as a backup player, perhaps the Tigers will re-sign Everett or add a similar affordable free agent.  Internally, Dlugach merits a look.

Raburn profiles as one of the game's better fourth outfielders, so the Tigers are protected if Guillen is injured or ineffective.  Despite the current plan to use Guillen as the everyday left fielder, it may make sense to non-tender Thames and let Guillen DH.  The Tigers' middling offense of 2009 will need to improve mainly from within, with Granderson and Guillen capable of better seasons.

The excellent front three are set in the rotation, and the final two spots may be snagged by pricey veterans in their contract years: Robertson, Bonderman, and Willis.  Bonderman, just 26, seems healthy and is being penciled in by Leyland.  The Tigers have been linked to free agent Aroldis Chapman, an investment that could conceivably be part of the scouting budget.  Whether Chapman could contribute in 2010 is unknown.

The Tigers face two possible late-inning losses in the bullpen in Fernando Rodney and Lyon.  If Rodney feels that his 37 saves should lead to a $6MM+ salary, he should be allowed to leave.  Likewise, Lyon may want a raise after posting a 2.86 ERA in 78.6 innings.  Zumaya and Perry could seize the opportunity, if they keep the walks down.

The Tigers continue to be hamstrung by lousy contract extensions, but they have enough talent to compete in 2010.  Bonderman, Willis, Robertson, Inge, Laird, and possibly Ordonez could be off the books after '10, so Dombrowski will gain a lot of flexibility at that point.

Tigers Join Aroldis Chapman Chase

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9:42pm: MLB.com's Jason Beck reports that the Tigers have confirmed interest in Chapman.

Tom Moore, Detroit's Director of International Scouting, said to Beck: "We're basically just at the interest level. Because of the nature, I think it's a situation where they're going to take the time to allow clubs to spend some time with the player and see who he is."

8:18pm: Add the Detroit Tigers to the list of teams in pursuit of Aroldis Chapman, according to a report by Melissa Segura in SI.com.

Segura writes that "several industry sources expect Chapman will command more than the $32 million the Yankees paid Cuban right-hander Jose Contreras in 2002."

Speaking of the Yankees, Chapman was a guest of the team for Game 6 of the ALCS, writes Jon Heyman.

And the Blue Jays new GM, Alex Anthopoulos, has concluded that it is "not realistic" to sign Chapman, according to Jordan Bastian of MLB.com.

"We don't have enough background and scouting looks to make a proper offer," Anthopoulos wrote in an e-mail. "Going forward, these will be the types of things we will be more proactive with. I think the way the Red Sox pursued [Daisuke Matsuzaka] is a great model. They were doing homework on him for years."

Odds & Ends: Indians, Dodgers, Sizemore

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More links on this Saturday night…

  • The Indians' "trio of managerial candidates" each told the club how they would improve the team's less-than-stellar bullpen.  Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer brings us the ideas of Manny Acta, Bobby Valentine and Torey Lovullo.  Chris Perez was one of the Tribe's bright spots in relief, posting 38 Ks in 33.1 IP after coming over from St. Louis in the Mark DeRosa trade.
  • Hoynes also writes that Jon Nunnally is expected to be a "serious candidate" for the team's hitting coach vacancy, regardless of who the manager is.  Nunnally is currently the hitting coach for the team's triple-A affiliate under the aforementioned Lovullo.
  • Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times reports that Major League Baseball is monitoring the McCourts' battle in Chavez Ravine.  Bob DuPuy, president and chief operating officer of MLB, says that the commissioner's office has not encouraged the McCourts to sell the team. 
  • Shaikin also says that the Dodgers will not use freed-up cash in free agency, but will instead use those funds to retain their arbitration eligible core players.  Those players include Andre Ethier, Matt Kemp, James Loney, Russell Martin, Chad Billingsley, Jonathan Broxton and George Sherrill.
  • A broken ankle won't cost Tigers' second baseman Scott Sizemore any time in Spring Training, writes Jason Beck of MLB.com.  Barring any unforeseen setbacks in his recovery, it seems that Detroit can still afford to allow free agent Placido Polanco to walk.

Odds & Ends: Tigers, Pedro, Rays, Dodgers

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Some links to peruse while you eagerly await Game Six of the ALCS…

  • Lynn Henning of The Detroit News suggests some salary figures for the Tigers' four key free agents: Fernando Rodney, Brandon Lyon, Placido Polanco, and Adam Everett. He also says there's no way to the team will bring back Aubrey Huff or Jarrod Washburn, nor "is it fathomable that either player will be offered salary arbitration for 2010."
  • The Phillies' braintrust has already met about offseason decisions according to Andy Martino of The Philadelphia Inquirer, and a person familiar with the team's thinking tells him that they haven't ruled out offering Pedro Martinez a contract longer than one year.
  • Steve Slowinski at DRaysBay.com took a look at the Rays' projected payroll for 2010, and concludes that salary escalations and arbitration raises don't leave the team with too much wiggle room next year, even though they have/will shed some expensive contracts.
  • Dodgers' GM Ned Colletti said he "doesn't anticipate any cutbacks in resources" despite the drama between the McCourts, according to the AP (via ESPN).
  • Dylan Hernandez of The LA Times says that impending free agents Orlando Hudson and Randy Wolf are expected to "depart to greener pastures."

Odds & Ends: Marlins, Miller, McCann

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In the wake of the Phillies' bullpen giving us all Mitch Williams flashbacks, here are a few pieces of news….

  • Joe Capozzi of the Palm Beach Post reports that Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria thought about replacing manager Fredi Gonzalez with Bobby Valentine as far back as June.
  • Loria, Gonzalez and other members of the Florida front office were in Paris for a short working vacation earlier in the week, writes Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald.
  • Spencer also notes that Florida left-hander Andrew Miller (the No. 6 overall pick in the 2006 MLB Draft), is pitching for Mesa of the Arizona Fall League to both get some extra work and to straighten out the kinks in his throwing motion.
  • In other AFL news, MLB.com's Jason Beck thinks that Tigers prospect Scott Sizemore's performance in Arizona this winter might help him win a job in Detroit in 2010.
  • Atlanta's Brian McCann underwent his second bout of Lazik eye surgery today to try and solve his nagging vision problems, reports Mark Bowman of MLB.com
  • WEEI.com's Alex Speier says Red Sox shortstop Jed Lowrie met with doctors on Friday and was told his surgically-repaired wrist should be in top shape for spring training after an off-season conditioning program.

Odds & Ends: Heyward, Yankees, Astros

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Some more afternoon links…

  • Jason Heyward – probably the game's best prospect - looks great so far in the Arizona Fall League, according to Jason Grey of ESPN.com.
  • MLB.com's Mike Bauman says so far the Yankees' decision to commit hundreds of millions to C.C. Sabathia and A.J. Burnett looks good.
  • As Jose de Jesus Ortiz of the Houston Chronicle reports, Ned Yost stressed his experience during his interview for the Astros' managerial opening.
  • James Schmehl of MLive.com suggests the Tigers should at least consider replacing hitting coach Lloyd McClendon with Rudy Jaramillo or another top batting instructor.
  • MLB.com's Mark Sheldon reports that the Rangers promoted four members of their front office.

Odds & Ends: Tigers, Clark, Duncan, Beltran

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Wait, what do you mean "there are no baseball games tonight?!?"

  • James Schmehl of MLive.com says that during the Tigers' annual season-ending meeting, GM Dave Dombrowski acknowledged "that payroll limitations this offseason will prevent the Tigers from keeping every free agent." Detroit's double play combo of Placido Polanco and Adam Everett will be free agents, as will their setup man-closer tandem of Brandon Lyon and Fernando Rodney.
  • Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports that Braves scouting director Roy Clark "told the Braves on Tuesday that he's leaving the organization to become an assistant general manager with the Nationals." Clark will have a similar role with the Nats, overseeing player development and the scouting department. He had been Atlanta's scouting director since 2000, drafting such players as Brian McCann, Yunel Escobar, and Jason Heyward.
  • Cardinals' pitching coach Dave Duncan said he's going to wait and see what manager Tony La Russa does before making a decision about his future, according to FoxSports.com's Jon Paul Morosi.
  • In a mailbag at MLB.com, Marty Noble says the Mets are "boxed in" when it comes to Carlos Beltran because not many clubs can assume the $37MM he's owed the next two years, not to mention concerns about his physical condition.

Tigers Notes: Strieby, Polanco, Closer

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Jason Beck at MLB.com is the latest to look ahead to the Detroit Tigers' 2010 season. A few of his predictions:

  • GM Dave Dombrowski will avoid any major free-agent splashes, instead sticking to cheap, "smaller, targeted moves."
  • The Tigers could be happy with Gerald Laird and Alex Avila behind the plate next year. They figure Avila should only improve with more big-league experience, and that Laird will hit better if he's used more sparingly than he was in 2009. Considering Laird's .306 OBP this season was exactly in line with his career numbers, I'm not sure that's a safe assumption.
  • Stuck behind first baseman Miguel Cabrera, prospect Ryan Strieby will have to move to the outfield if he's going to earn major-league playing time.
  • Placido Polanco is probably a goner. The club will use Ramon Santiago and Ryan Raburn as fallback options at second base if Scott Sizemore isn't ready for the full-time job.
  • There will be no everyday designated hitter, with two or three players instead rotating in and out of the role.
  • With Magglio Ordonez seeing time at DH, the Tigers could add another corner outfielder.
  • The team will try to sign an outside veteran arm to fill their closer vacancy.
  • Excepting lefty Bobby Seay and whoever the closer turns out to be, the bullpen will be young and full of short-term contracts.

Tigers Rumors: Rodney, Lyon, Washburn, Polanco

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Following the disappointing finish to the Detroit Tigers' 2009 season, plenty of thoughts have turned to the upcoming winter in Detroit.

  • Steve Kornacki of MLive.com indicates the Tigers will feel the need to re-sign either Brandon Lyon or Fernando Rodney to close games, since the club isn't sure that either Ryan Perry or Cody Satterwhite is ready for that role yet. Kornacki also wonders if the Tigers are confident in Curtis Granderson as an offensive catalyst, or if they might try to deal for a speedster like Carl Crawford or Juan Pierre.
  • MLive.com's Chris Iott takes a stab at what the 2010 roster might look like. He expects the Tigers to part ways with Jarrod Washburn, Placido Polanco, and Rodney, while retaining Lyon for the ninth inning.
  • Detroit squandered their financial advantage over teams like the Minnesota Twins by handing out too many bad contracts, according to Michael Rosenberg of the Detroit Free Press. Rosenberg writes that committing big money to players like Dontrelle Willis and Gary Sheffield killed their payroll flexibility and resulted in a subpar offense in 2009. Going forward, Rosenberg hopes the Tigers "show the creative thinking of a good small-market team" when making roster moves.
  • The Detroit Free Press's Drew Sharp agrees that the Tigers have to spend wisely. He warns owner Mike Ilitch against succumbing to the temptation of adding another big name like Crawford. Sharp thinks the team would be better off saving some cash and hoping players like Carlos Guillen and Jeremy Bonderman stay healthy in 2010.
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