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Carlos Guillen Doesn’t Change Tune

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Back in February, I praised Carlos Guillen as the rare marquee free agent who refused to impose a deadline for his next contract.  However, Guillen has since changed that stance.

The Tiger shortstop said yesterday that he would not negotiate a contract after the season starts.  He does wish to stay in Detroit, and talks are ongoing.

The general feeling of MLBTR readers when last surveyed was that Guillen will land a four-year, $56MM contract.  If he remains mostly at shortstop, that’s a bargain.

UPDATE: We’re back where we started – The Detroit News reports that Guillen will negotiate into the season as long as it’s not a distraction.  Tom Gage learned that there has not been a recent offer from the Tigers.

More Ken Rosenthal

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Ken Rosenthal has been working overtime, posting a second column tonight.  To summarize:

  • The Astros plan on keeping their relief core of Brad Lidge, Chad Qualls, Dan Wheeler, and Trever Miller, despite interest from the Red Sox in Lidge and Qualls.
  • In Marcus Thames, Chris Shelton, and Ramon Santiago, the Tigers appear to have a surplus of players.  However, Rosenthal spoke to another team’s exec who thinks the trio will stay with the club.  It’s nice to have depth.  Speaking of which, top pitching prospect Andrew Miller will start his season in A ball but could make an impact in the second half.
  • The Cubs and Rangers would like to add shortstop Clint Barmes as a utility man (might even make sense for the Cubs to start him).  The Rox still like Barmes though and may keep him around as a 2B option for ’08.  Rosenthal mentions the Royals as another fit for Barmes.  The Royals need a shortstop like the Marlins need a center fielder.
  • The Dodgers want to add a right-handed slugger.  Assuming the price tag on Rocco Baldelli remains too high, L.A. could go after Kevin Mench or Reggie Sanders.  The Royals would love to get rid of Sanders or Emil Brown.  The O’s have some mild interest in Sanders.  I guess the offseason helped the Dodgers and Orioles forget that Sanders is 39, makes $5MM, and posted a .729 OPS last year.

Shelton May Be Trade Bait

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Chris Shelton is 7 for 14 this spring, and the fine start could get him traded.  I’m not sure why the Tigers are dead set on the lifeless bat of Sean Casey instead, but here we are.  It appears Marcus Thames is the backup plan, leaving no room for Shelton.

With a .263/.352/.480 PECOTA, Shelton can still be an affordable league average first baseman.  And there’s a legitimate chance he bumps it up to a Mo Vaughn/Pat Burrell level for a few seasons.    

The problem for the Tigers is that it’s not terribly hard to find a 1B who can hit like this.  Guys like Josh Phelps are freely available, so I wouldn’t expect an impressive bounty for Shelton.  It may make sense to keep him at Triple A for a month or two and deal him once an injury creates a need for another club.

Comparing Carlos Guillen and Michael Young

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Michael Young’s recent contract extension, which 56.6% of you liked, could inform negotiations for Carlos Guillen’s next deal.  Guillen is among the ten best free agents available after the 2007 season.

Let’s compare the two shortstops.  They have nearly identical body types, though Guillen is a year older.  Guillen’s got a touch more power; both consistently hit for a high average.  Guillen draws more walks, so he’s in better shape if the batting average starts to decline.  Both have questions about their ability to stay at shortstop in the long term.  Both are significantly underpaid this year.

The largest difference is that Young is far more durable.  That’s a huge factor.  If you factor in the health and age difference, it’s obvious Guillen should not get a five-year, $80MM deal.  The Tigers seem willing to offer a four-year extension, taking him through 2011.  Rather than Young’s $16MM AAV, Guillen should be in line for something more like $14-15MM.  He wants to stay in Detroit, so something like 4/52 might make sense.  PECOTA would support Detroit making such an offer.

What say you?  Guess the length and AAV of Guillen’s contract in today’s MLBTR poll and compare to other readers.

Will Tigers Keep Pudge?

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The Tigers have a $13MM option with a $3MM buyout for Ivan Rodriguez in ’08.  Pudge turned 35 in November.  He said recently that he’d like to finish his career with Detroit and might play until he’s 40.

Given the buyout, Rodriguez’s option is more like $10MM.  PECOTA puts him at $8,125,000 for 2008, so exercising it seems wise.  There’s value in the one-year commitment.  Extending him for extra years might be a mistake, though.

Detroit’s larger 2008 commitments:

Ordonez – $15MM
Sheffield – $14MM
Bonderman – $8.5MM
Inge – $6.2MM
Polanco – $4.6MM

After the ’07 season, Rodriguez, Kenny Rogers, Todd Jones, and Carlos Guillen are all potential free agents.

Carlos Guillen Reaches Walk Year

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Carlos Guillen is being pretty cool about his impending free agency.  He’s not establishing an ultimatum for Dave Dombrowski.  He’s not complaining about his $5MM salary this year even though he might be worth four times that (so says PECOTA).  He’s not demanding to play shortstop now or in any future contract.  Basically, he’s the model contract year guy.

I would like to see a modified PECOTA as a means of determining Guillen’s worth over for the 2008-11 seasons assuming some time spent at 1B.  The projection system values him at $70MM over those four seasons, though it has him playing 100+ games at short each year.  PECOTA calls for below average defense for the last three years of the contract, but still values him very highly. 

Given the massive difference between his production coming from shortstop and first base, his future employer might want to keep him at short even as his defense slips further.  Maybe the Tigers could compensate by signing Orlando Hudson after the 2008 season.   

Tigers and A-Rod?

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This is a kind of a non-story, but I feel like writing about it anyway.  Lynn Henning of the Detroit News speculates that the Tigers could have interest in signing Alex Rodriguez should he become a free agent after the 2007 season.

The speculation is based on shortstop Carlos Guillen’s impending free agency.  Henning doesn’t think the Tigers will offer Guillen a contract longer than three years, and that the length could be a dealbreaker.  Additionally, the Tigers have a positive relationship with Scott Boras.  Finally, Henning notes that the Tigers were believed to have acquired about Rodriguez’s availability last July.

There seems to be an assumption that Rodriguez would serve as the shortstop for the 2008 Tigers, since Brandon Inge is under contract through 2010.  To me that seems a questionable assumption.  When was the last time a star player moved in the opposite direction on the defensive spectrum after the age of 30?  (Not a sarcastic question, I’m really curious).  And no, Darin Erstad moving from first back to center doesn’t count.

Tigers and A-Rod?

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This is a kind of a non-story, but I feel like writing about it anyway.  Lynn Henning of the Detroit News speculates that the Tigers could have interest in signing Alex Rodriguez should he become a free agent after the 2007 season.

The speculation is based on shortstop Carlos Guillen’s impending free agency.  Henning doesn’t think the Tigers will offer Guillen a contract longer than three years, and that the length could be a dealbreaker.  Additionally, the Tigers have a positive relationship with Scott Boras.  Finally, Henning notes that the Tigers were believed to have acquired about Rodriguez’s availability last July.

There seems to be an assumption that Rodriguez would serve as the shortstop for the 2008 Tigers, since Brandon Inge is under contract through 2010.  To me that seems a questionable assumption.  When was the last time a star player moved in the opposite direction on the defensive spectrum after the age of 30?  (Not a sarcastic question, I’m really curious).  And no, Darin Erstad moving from first back to center doesn’t count.

Juan Gone Still On The Radar?

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Despite published reports to the contrary, Tracy Ringolsby says the Tigers and Orioles are considering extending a spring training invite to Juan Gonzalez.  He adds that despite Bill Stoneman’s denial, the Angels had scouts watching Gonzalez in Puerto Rico this winter.

Now let us all sit back and wait for those three clubs to re-deny interest.  It’s funny to me that the clubs even felt compelled to comment on the rumor in the first place.

Juan Gone Still On The Radar?

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Despite published reports to the contrary, Tracy Ringolsby says the Tigers and Orioles are considering extending a spring training invite to Juan Gonzalez.  He adds that despite Bill Stoneman’s denial, the Angels had scouts watching Gonzalez in Puerto Rico this winter.

Now let us all sit back and wait for those three clubs to re-deny interest.  It’s funny to me that the clubs even felt compelled to comment on the rumor in the first place.

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