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8 Low-Cost Rotation Depth Options

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We ran through some of the remaining sources of offensive power yesterday. Today, we’ll do the same for rotation pieces. There are not all that many established starters left on the market, but there are still a handful who stand out as plausible candidates to gobble up some frames without costing much for an acquiring team. (Jeremy Hellickson would’ve been included here had he not agreed to terms with the Nats this morning.) As before, we’ll be ignoring those players who MLBTR predicted to secure multi-year deals entering the winter (e.g. Dallas Keuchel, Gio Gonzalez).

Presented in order of 2018 innings pitched…

James Shields: He topped 200 frames for the tenth time in 2018, so teams looking for volume will have to place Shields on the top of their value list. True, the results (4.53 ERA) and peripherals (6.8 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, 1.5 HR/9, 35.2% GB rate) weren’t exciting, but Shields is also a respected staff member who’d be valued for his positive influence on teammates. For the right organization, he’s a viable innings eater.

Bartolo Colon: Yep, he’s back — or at least he hopes to be. Home runs were a big problem last year for Big Sexy, but he still racked up 146 1/3 frames on the year for the Rangers. As with Shields, there won’t likely be much interest from contenders, but other teams that are thin on upper-level pitching depth could look to Colon as a cheap source of innings.

Clay Buchholz: It’s quite a different story for the 34-year-old Buchholz, who had a nice turnaround campaign before it was cut short by yet another injury. Organizations that are interested in building waves of talented arms, whether or not they come with health concerns, will certainly be intrigued by Buchholz, even if his peripherals (7.4 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, 0.82 HR/9, 42.6% GB rate) didn’t quite support the sparkling 2.01 ERA he carried through 98 1/3 innings last year in Arizona.

Yovani Gallardo: Though he made it through 94 1/3 innings, the outcomes weren’t pretty for Gallardo. Memories of his days as a sturdy mid-rotation starter are long faded, though perhaps there’s reason to believe in at least some amount of positive regression. Gallardo’s 6.39 ERA in 2018 was caused in some part by a low 64.5% strand rate. Of course, ERA estimators still valued his contributions in the low-5.00 realm, so there’s not a ton of room for optimism.

Edwin Jackson: Jackson ran up a productive ERA in about a half-season of work as a key member of Oakland’s patchwork rotation. But the spread in this case between his ERA (3.33) and ERA estimators (4.65 FIP, 4.88 xFIP, 4.98 SIERA) is significant. Jackson is still averaging better than 93 mph on his heater, but he likely won’t benefit again from a .240 batting average on balls in play from opposing hitters.

Brett Anderson: Some will be surprised to learn that Anderson only celebrated his 31st birthday earlier this month. The lefty debuted as a 21-year-old and has had a tumultuous career, but he put forth a solid effort in 80 1/3 frames with the A’s in ’18. Anderson registered a 55.6 percent grounder rate and notched a career-best 1.46 BB/9. He doesn’t miss many bats and has a long injury history, but the southpaw’s knack for keeping the ball on the ground and his typically low walk rates could be appealing for a team seeking depth rather than a candidate to make 30 starts.

Doug Fister: A knee injury wrecked Fister’s 2018 season, but the righty displayed his typical penchant for keeping the ball on the ground (50.4 percent) and avoiding free passes (2.5 BB/9). Fister managed a 4.50 ERA in 66 innings — nearly half of which came at the launching pad that is Globe Life Park in Arlington. It’s an extraordinarily small sample, to be sure, but the righty did notch a 2.82 ERA and 4.14 FIP in 35 2/3 innings on the road. As far as depth options go, clubs could do far worse than the 35-year-old veteran.

Ervin Santana: Only 10 pitchers threw more innings than Santana between the 2016-17 seasons, but an injured tendon in his pitching hand that required surgery last offseason more or less wiped out his entire 2018 campaign. It’s perhaps heartening that the injury wasn’t specific to the his elbow or shoulder. Santana’s results in 24 2/3 innings were awful (22 runs on 31 hits and nine walks), though it’s unlikely that he was healthy when on the hill. He may be 36 now, but Santana posted a combined 3.52 ERA in 907 2/3 frames from 2013-17. If his hand is healed up, he could be the best bet for a productive season on this list.

Pitching Market Notes: Kikuchi, Kimbrel, Happ, Miller, EJax, Patton

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Changes in pitching usage seem likely to shake up the player market — but how? Jayson Stark of The Athletic takes a look at the question, which will in no small part be answered in this winter’s free agent market, in a subscription piece. The broad takeaway is that back-of-the-rotation starter types will still find a market, but perhaps won’t be pursued as forcefully in years past. (It seems fair to add that such pitchers may still be valued for their ability to eat innings, but may also not be asked to gobble up quite as many in hopes that they’ll be more effective.) Meanwhile, teams will perhaps be more willing than before to pay up for highly talented pitchers with durability questions.

Here’s the latest market chatter:

  • The Phillies intend to pursue Japanese hurler Yusei Kikuchi, according to Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia. It bears noting that the Philadelphia organization is also said to be interested in quite a few other appealing free agent hurlers, but it’s particularly notable that the Phils like Kikuchi after watching him pitch in his native Japan. Per a report from the Japan Times, it seems that Kikuchi’s formal posting will be processed sooner than later.
  • If there are several starters on the menu for the Phillies, it seems they could also play at the upper reaches of the relief market. Morosi tweets that they are at least looking into top available closer Craig Kimbrel. Elsewhere, while a reunion between Kimbrel and the Red Sox can’t be counted out, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe suggests that it does not seem particularly likely, either. The vibe of the post is that the Boston organization is probably not preparing to out-bid the market on the veteran closer. Though Kimbrel would obviously still have appeal at a reasonable price, Cafardo seems to hint at relatively tepid interest. For instance, he writes, “Red Sox officials usually shrug their shoulders when asked about Kimbrel’s future.”
  • Starter J.A. Happ is a popular early name on the market. The Twins can be counted among the many teams with interest, per Jon Morosi of MLB.com (via Twitter). It’ll be interesting to see whether the southpaw ends up signing relatively early in the winter. The lefty has been much more than a steadying presence in recent season, with intriguing peripherals that suggest he’s better than ever even at 36 years of age. You can track all the prior and future rumors on Happ right here.
  • Veteran lefty Andrew Miller is “definitely seeking [a] multiyear commitment” in free agency, Andy Martino of SNY.tv tweets. While some have guessed Miller might seek to reestablish some value with a pillow contract, that doesn’t seem to be his preference. There’s also solid early interest. Martino (here) and Morosi (Twitter link) each tie Miller to the Mets, with Martino also noting that the Yankees also are interested. More broadly, Martino writes that the Mets are looking into the entire free agent market for relief help, including the best (and most expensive) arms available. It is difficult to guess at this point how things will turn out, particularly since the Mets have so many bullpen openings. MLBTR gave its best guess recently, though, predicting the Mets would land a pair of notable relievers. As for Miller, we expect he’ll have strong, multi-year offers to choose from.
  • The Athletics have interest in a reunion with Edwin Jackson, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription link). The 35-year-old still managed to average better than 94 mph on his four-seam fastball and got good results from a cutter that became his most-used pitch. One would think he will have multiple suitors after throwing 92 innings of 3.33 ERA ball, though the interest will be tempered by less-than-exciting peripherals (6.7 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, 1.2 HR/9, 36.4% GB) that left ERA estimators rather unimpressed by his 2018 effort (4.65 FIP, 4.88 xFIP, 4.98 SIERA). The Oakland organization secured excellent results from several bounceback hurlers this year and will surely weigh retaining at least some of them, even as it also seeks new possibilities.
  • Right-hander Spencer Patton could weigh a return stateside after two campaigns in Japan, per Robert Murray of The Athletic (via Twitter). The 30-year-old may have found another gear while pitching for the Yokohama Bay Stars. He worked to a 2.64 ERA in his 116 innings over the past two seasons, recording 10.3 K/9 against 2.7 BB/9. Patton failed to hold down a big league job despite receiving some opportunities in the past, though he is said to have found some added velocity of late. It seems he’s hearing from a few interested MLB organizations as the offseason gets underway.

Athletics To Select Edwin Jackson

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The Athletics will select right-hander Edwin Jackson from Triple-A Nashville, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports. He’ll make a start Monday in Detroit, Slusser adds.

Oakland will need to make a corresponding 40-man move to create room for Jackson, as its roster is already at capacity. The club may elect to shift injured righty Andrew Triggs from the 10-day disabled list to the 60-day DL, thus opening up a spot for Jackson, per Slusser.

The promotion of Jackson is rather notable because it puts him in position to tie a major league record. The A’s will be Jackson’s 13th MLB team, matching former reliever Octavio Dotel’s all-time mark. Jackson joined the A’s on a minor league deal on June 6 and earned his way back to the majors with a 4.02 ERA and 16 strikeouts against eight walks over 15 2/3 innings/three starts with their Triple-A club. Overall, including 55 2/3 frames with the Nationals’ Triple-A affiliate, Jackson has logged a 3.53 ERA with 7.9 K/9 and 3.8 BB/9 this season.

Now that he’s heading to the A’s, who have several starting options on the DL, Jackson will be in position to earn at a $1.5MM rate. The 34-year-old will also bring significant experience to the team’s rotation, having amassed 377 appearances and 288 starts since debuting with the Dodgers in 2003. Jackson has registered a 4.67 ERA with 6.94 K/9, 3.55 BB/9 and a 43.7 percent groundball rate over 1,800 1/3 MLB innings. He racked up 76 of those frames in Washington last year, when he struggled to a 5.21 ERA despite playable strikeout and walk rates (7.11 K/9, 3.43 BB/9). Jackson also averaged 93.5 mph on his fastball and recorded a 10.1 percent swinging-strike rate, as MLBTR’s Steve Adams noted last month.

Athletics, Edwin Jackson Agree To Minor League Deal

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June 7: Jackson’s deal has a $1.5MM base salary at the big league level, tweets USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (Twitter link).

June 6: Veteran right-hander Edwin Jackson and the Athletics are in agreement on a minor league contract, Jackson’s agents at the ESQ Agency have confirmed to MLBTR. The 34-year-old recently exercised an opt-out clause in his previous minor league pact with the Nationals and became a free agent. It seems that the A’s will need to make a relatively quick decision on Jackson, as his new deal comes with a June 20 opt-out date.

Jackson pitched well for the Nationals’ Triple-A affiliate in Syracuse this season, logging a 3.40 ERA with 7.7 K/9, 3.6 BB/9 and a 41.7 percent ground-ball rate in 55 2/3 innings (a total of 10 starts). The well-traveled righty totaled 76 innings for the Nats at the MLB level in 2017, turning in mixed results. Jackson recorded a 2.94 ERA through his first eight starts last year but surrendered nine home runs through those 49 frames. The long ball caught up to him, as he was tagged for 24 earned runs in his final 22 innings of work. Jackson did maintain solid velocity on his heater (93.5 mph) and check in with a healthy 10.1 percent swinging-strike rate in 2017.

If Jackson sees any MLB time with the A’s, he’ll lay claim to an interesting oddity in MLB record books. The veteran righty has pitched in the Majors for 12 different clubs at present, leaving him one team shy of tying Octavio Dotel’s record of 13. Dating back to the 2003 season, Jackson has pitched in 377 MLB contests, tallying 1800 1/3 inning of 4.67 ERA ball with 6.9 K/9, 3.6 BB/9 and a 43.7 percent grounder rate. He’s two wins shy of reaching the century mark for his career.

[Related: Oakland Athletics depth chart]

The depth addition comes at a time when the A’s have already lost righty Jharel Cotton for the season due to Tommy John surgery and have recently placed both Andrew Triggs (nerve irritation) and Daniel Gossett (elbow strain) on the disabled list. Righty Paul Blackburn and lefty Brett Anderson, too, are on the big league disabled list for the A’s. Given the glut of injuries in the Oakland rotation picture and the close proximity of Jackson’s opt-out date, it seems there’s a decent chance he’ll ascend to the Majors with the A’s in the coming weeks.

Edwin Jackson Exercises Opt-Out Clause

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Veteran righty Edwin Jackson has exercised his opt-out clause with the Nationals, per Jorge Castillo of the Washington Post (via Twitter). He is expected to be released by the organization tomorrow.

Jackson, 34, spent the 2012 season in D.C. and returned to D.C. last year to help fill a rotation void. He re-joined the club on a minors deal that deal would have paid him at a $1.5MM rate in the majors, with up to $1.4MM in incentives.

Most opt-out provisions allow a player to decide whether to exercise the clause. If triggered, the team then has a period of time within which to decide whether to add the player to the MLB roster. In this case, it appears from the report that the team has already made up its mind to grant Jackson his release, though in theory the Nats could presumably decide to elevate him to the majors.

Jackson certainly has produced solid results thus far at Triple-A Syracuse. Through ten starts, he owns a 3.40 ERA with 7.6 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9. Of course, there’s also no evidence of any particular changes that would allow Jackson to produce better numbers than he has of late in the majors. Since the start of the 2013 season, he has thrown 531 2/3 innings of 5.32 ERA ball at the game’s highest level.

In any event, the Nationals are evidently disinclined to make a 40-man move in order to hang onto Jackson. There’s no room in the rotation at present, though presumably he could have been utilized in a relief capacity, as he has with some frequency in recent seasons. Jackson will head back onto the open market in hopes of finding a more promising path back to the big leagues.

Nationals Re-Sign Edwin Jackson To Minor League Deal

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The Nationals and right-hander Edwin Jackson have agreed to a minor league contract, according to his agents at the ESQ Agency. Jackson’s deal comes with a $1.5MM base salary as well as an additional $1.4MM worth of incentives.

The 34-year-old Jackson returned for a second stint with the Nats in 2017, signing a midseason minor league pact after initially spending time in the Orioles organization. Jackson posted a pristine 0.44 ERA in 20 1/3 Triple-A frames for the Nationals before being called up to the big league roster following Joe Ross’ season-ending Tommy John surgery. He’d go on to make 13 starts for the Nationals down the stretch, registering a 5.07 ERA with 7.4 K/9, 3.2 BB/9 and 38 percent ground-ball rate.

Jackson turned in a 2.94 ERA through his first eight starts, though he surrendered a whopping nine home runs through those 49 frames. That susceptibility to the long ball caught up to him over his final five starts, as Jackson was tagged for 24 earned runs in 22 innings of work. That said, he did average 93.6 mph on his heater with the Nationals and turn in an above-average 10.1 percent swinging-strike rate.

[Related: Washington Nationals depth chart]

The Nats will once again rely upon Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez and Tanner Roark in the top four spots of the rotation this coming season, though the fifth spot looks to be unsettled as Spring Training approaches. Jackson will join the race for that spot, vying with fellow right-handers Erick Fedde, A.J. Cole and Austin Voth as well as left-hander Tommy Milone (who also signed a minor league deal).

Of course, the Nationals have at times been linked to various starting pitching targets on both the free-agent and trade markets, leaving open the possibility that they’ll bring in another option to whom they’ll promise that remaining rotation vacancy.

NL Notes: Marlins, Stanton, Bucs, Freeman, Nats

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While the Marlins’ Jeffrey Loria era will soon end, the franchise’s low-payroll ways won’t, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald reports.  Bruce Sherman and Derek Jeter agreed to purchase the team from Loria for $1.2 billion ($400MM of which will come from Sherman), but they don’t have the type of money necessary to spend big on a roster, according to a potential investor who spoke with Jackson. Sherman and Jeter informed Jackson’s source that they plan to pare down payroll from $115MM to either $80MM to $85MM or $55MM in 2018, depending on whether they trade high-priced MVP candidate Giancarlo Stanton. Slashing spending won’t sit well with Marlins fans who have witnessed the team go on a late-season run and Stanton turn in an awe-inspiring 2017 performance, Jackson notes. And Jackson adds other details that likely won’t please fans, either, as the investor told him Jeter’s set to pay himself $5MM per year until he recoups his $25MM investment and get a company credit card so he can cover expenses from his home in Tampa Bay to Miami.  Further, Jackson suggests that FOX won’t be renegotiating the Marlins’ television contract, the least valuable in baseball, before its expiration at the conclusion of the 2020 campaign.

More from the National League…

  • The Pirates placed utilityman Josh Harrison on the disabled list with a broken left pinky finger and recalled fellow infielder/outfielder Chris Bostick from Triple-A on Sunday, per a team announcement. The injury, which is the result of a hit by pitch from Reds right-hander Tyler Mahle on Saturday, will end Harrison’s season, according to Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh-Tribune Review.  The 30-year-old Harrison currently leads the majors in HBPs (23, two more than Anthony Rizzo) and closes 2017 having produced 3.2 rWAR/2.5 fWAR and a .272/.339/.432 batting line with 16 home runs and 12 stolen bases across 542 plate appearances. Depending on whether the struggling Pirates elect to rebuild over the winter, it’s possible Harrison has played his last game as a Buc. The versatile veteran is reasonably priced through 2020, including a pair of club option years, and could be a trade candidate.
  • The Braves will check first baseman Freddie Freeman’s left wrist for structural damage on Monday, David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution tweets.  “There’s no pain.  I just have no strength,” said Freeman, who fractured his wrist May 18 and didn’t return until July 4.  While the superstar has hit an outstanding .294/.375/.520 since coming back, that output pales in comparison to Freeman’s otherworldly .341/.461/.748 pre-injury line.  Freeman told Mark Bowman of MLB.com and other reporters Saturday that he has been swinging a “wet newspaper,” has “nothing left,” and that his “bat speed is absolutely gone.” The left-handed slugger also revealed that facing hard-throwing southpaws has recently presented a challenge from a mental standpoint because of his wrist issue. Even though he’s clearly less than 100 percent and the Braves aren’t in contention, Freeman insists he’s not going to shut it down early this year, per O’Brien.
  • Righty Edwin Jackson’s unexpected success with the Nationals is the result of diligent work he has done with trainer Kevin Visser dating back to the offseason, Jorge Castillo of the Washington Post details.  “He was adamant that he didn’t think he had peaked yet,” Visser said of his initial meeting in December with the 33-year-old Jackson.  The two quickly began making adjustments to Jackson’s mechanics, dropping his elbow 135 degrees and having him land toward home with his shoulders squared to the plate, Castillo explains. The changes didn’t immediately yield positive results, evidenced by Jackson’s very brief and difficult stint with the Orioles earlier in the season, but he has gotten more comfortable as the year has progressed. In his second go-round with Washington, which signed Jackson to a minor league deal in June, the veteran of 12 teams has logged a 2.49 ERA across 49 innings (eight starts) and recorded his lowest walk rate (2.76 BB/9) since 2012.

Nationals To Designate Jacob Turner

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The Nationals will designate Jacob Turner for assignment, according to Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post (via Twitter). His roster spot will be needed for the ascension of Edwin Jackson to take a start today.

Washington also needed to clear active roster space for just-acquired relievers Sean Doolittle and Ryan Madson. That’ll be accomplished by optioning Austin Adams and Trevor Gott, each of whom had come up briefly while the club nailed down that trade.

Turner, 26, has played much the same role the Nats will now ask Jackson to occupy, with one major difference: now, there’s an open rotation spot. Jackson will have the first crack after allowing just one earned run on nine hits in his 20 1/3 innings at Triple-A Syracuse. Assuming he clears waivers and accepts an assignment, Turner will likely remain a major league option as well.

Nats Select Jacob Turner’s Contract; Edwin Jackson Likely To Start Tuesday

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The Nationals announced today that they’ve selected the contract of right-hander Jacob Turner and transferred Koda Glover to the 60-day disabled list to clear a spot on the 40-man roster. As MASNsports.com’s Dan Kolko tweets, newly acquired Sean Doolittle and Ryan Madson will join the team tomorrow in Los Angeles, so Turner’s recall could just be a one-day stint. Because Blake Treinen went to the A’s in that trade, there’s already an open spot on the 25-man roster for Turner.

While Turner could conceivably start tomorrow’s game in place of the injured Joe Ross, Jorge Castillo of the Washington Post reports that Edwin Jackson will be called upon to start tomorrow’s contest. Signed to a minor league deal last month, the veteran Jackson has allowed just one run on nine hits and 10 walks with 22 strikeouts in 20 1/3 innings with Triple-A Syracuse. That performance, it seems, has earned him the first crack at the fifth spot in the rotation, which is now vacant following the news that Ross will require Tommy John surgery. His promotion will require another 40-man move.

Regarding Glover, manager Dusty Baker told reporters today that the 24-year-old hasn’t yet thrown since being placed on the disabled list more than a month ago (Twitter link via Castillo). However, Baker also said that he’s hopeful Glover will be able to return when he’s first eligible to be activated. That seems like an ambitious but not impossible goal. Glover has already spent 37 games on the shelf, but if he’s able to resume throwing in the near future, the club could get him on track for a couple of minor league rehab innings within that roughly three-week window.

Nationals, Edwin Jackson Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Nationals have agreed to a minor league contract with right-hander Edwin Jackson, reports Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post (via Twitter).  The 33-year-old Jackson, who is represented by the Legacy Agency, will report to Triple-A Syracuse for the time being.

This will mark the second tour of duty for Jackson with the Nationals, as he previously enjoyed a solid 2012 season as a member of the Nats’ rotation back in 2012. That year — the last in which he turned in quality results as a starter over the course of a full season — saw Jackson toss 189 1/3 innings with a 4.03 ERA, 8.0 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 and a 47.4 percent ground-ball rate.

Jackson parlayed that season into an ill-fated four-year, $52MM contract with the Cubs, though he only made it through two and a half seasons in Chicago before being released. During the third season of that contract (2015), Jackson did manage to post a very respectable 3.07 ERA through 56 2/3 innings between the Cubs and Braves while working exclusively out of the bullpen. His secondary stats were a bit more questionable, however, and he wasn’t able to repeat that success in 2016 with the Padres.

The Nats will hope that Jackson can prove to have something left in the tank, possibly to help out a beleaguered bullpen that has been the club’s definitive Achilles heel all season.

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