The Yankees’ Wave Of Former Top Prospects
Prospects in baseball aren't a sure thing, but they're fun to dream on. As fans, pundits and onlookers of all varieties -- heck, even for team employees -- it's easy to get swept up in what might eventually be. There's nothing more alluring than the idea of a potential star-caliber player, or even a solid regular, earning at or close to the league minimum with six or even seven years of club control ahead of them. The more players of this ilk on which a team can successfully convert, the more space there is to be aggressive in free agency, in extending homegrown talent and in acquiring players on notable salary in trades.
The flip side of that equation, however, lies in the moves teams sometimes decline to make. Trades are passed on and free agents looked over, as that promise of a better tomorrow looms on the horizon. "There's no such thing as a pitching prospect" (or "TINSTAAPP") is a common idiom in baseball circles. For every Juan Soto, Gunnar Henderson, Jackson Merrill and Jackson Chourio, there are ten others whose names fall to the wayside and eventually change hands via a minor trade/claim or pass through waivers entirely. Prospects are fun to dream on ... but more often than not, they're just that: a dream.
Every team is susceptible to this. Look up and down the league and you'll probably find at least one former top prospect among each club's crop of minor league free agents this offseason, along with several more who cleared waivers and were assigned to their clubs' top affiliate in hopes they reestablish something.
This isn't intended to be a knock on the Yankees in particular. Again, it's a common problem. But the Yankees currently have four out-of-options players who've yet to establish themselves and who have ranked among their top 10 prospects in the organization within the past three years. None has established himself, and now each is facing an uncertain future, particularly with the looming Nov. 19 deadline to protect players from next month's Rule 5 Draft. The Yankees have five open 40-man spots at the moment, so perhaps they don't feel a huge push to free up some space, but those vacancies will be filled by prospects, free agent signings and trade acquisitions -- all beginning within the next few days. Someone's going to have to get pushed off eventually.
Again, other clubs have this issue every year. But in 2024 specifically, there's no club with quite as many out-of-options players on the roster bubble as the Yankees.
Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription
- Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
- Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
- Remove ads and support our writers.
- Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker
Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald held a live chat today, exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers!
Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription
- Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
- Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
- Remove ads and support our writers.
- Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker
Live Video Chat With MLBTR Writers
The first-ever MLBTR live video chat happened today! Tim Dierkes, Anthony Franco, Darragh McDonald, and Steve Adams took MLB questions from Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers for over an hour. Below you'll find a YouTube link where you can watch the chat.
Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription
- Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
- Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
- Remove ads and support our writers.
- Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker
MLB Mailbag: Bohm, Mariners, Guardians, Pirates, Sasaki
This week's mailbag gets into the concept of trading Alec Bohm, possible targets for the Mariners and Guardians, Roki Sasaki's decision, the Pirates' catching surplus, various hypothetical trade scenarios, and much more.
Eric asks:
What could the Phillies reasonably expect in return for Alec Bohm and a second tier prospect?
Bohm, 28, posted a full-season best 115 wRC+ in 606 plate appearances this year, good for a career-best 3.5 WAR. That's despite a 74 wRC+ over the season's final two months. His struggles continued into the Phillies' four NLDS games against the Mets. I assume this is why Phillies fans seem to want to get rid of him. Bohm projects for an $8.1MM arbitration salary in 2025 and is under team control through '26.
Though he's a solid player, there is real evidence the Phillies are considering moving Bohm. Yesterday, ESPN's Jeff Passan wrote, "Coming off a career-best season, the 28-year-old Bohm nonetheless finds himself on the trade block." Passan offers no rationale beyond the Phillies "looking to shake up their team."
Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription
- Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
- Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
- Remove ads and support our writers.
- Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker
Ha-Seong Kim’s Challenging Free Agent Case
Ha-Seong Kim represents one of the biggest risk-reward plays of this year's free agent class. That didn't seem like it'd be the case in August. For most of the season, Kim's profile was built around stability. He wasn't a huge offensive threat, but his plus defense at shortstop and league average bat gave him a strong floor. Kim hadn't had a single injured list stint since making the move from Korea, so durability was going to be one of his biggest selling points.
That changed on August 18. Kim dove back into first base awkwardly on a pickoff attempt. He jammed his right shoulder and went on the IL. The Padres initially announced the injury as inflammation and expressed hope he'd be back within a couple weeks. Kim didn't return and eventually underwent a season-ending labrum repair.
Kim's return timeline is up in the air, as is his free agent value. It seems clear he won't be ready for Opening Day. There's not much known beyond that. Agent Scott Boras has said the 29-year-old will be ready early in the '25 campaign. Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller was more vague, saying last month that it could be anytime around "May, June, July." Forecasting Kim's market when there's such a wide variance on his return timeline is tricky. That's borne out in the extreme range of pre-offseason contract predictions.
Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription
- Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
- Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
- Remove ads and support our writers.
- Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker
Why The Royals Should Be Primed For Another Big Offseason
The Royals were the surprise spender of the 2023-24 offseason, putting down a combined $110.5MM on eight free agents: Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, Hunter Renfroe, Chris Stratton, Will Smith, Adam Frazier, Garrett Hampson and Austin Nola. Several of the moves didn't pan out, but the ones that did paid of in spades. Lugo and Wacha helped anchor a strong rotation, which the Royals rode to a Wild Card berth in the American League. They quickly swept the Orioles out of said Wild Card round before falling 3-1 to the eventual AL Champion Yankees in the Division Series.
Not every offseason spending spree produces such favorable results. More often than not, it seems to go the other direction. "Winning the offseason" has become something of an oft-cited punchline, given the frequency with which the team that grabbed the most headlines over a given winter ultimately still falls shy of expectation.
That doesn't mean the Royals should be reluctant to take a similarly aggressive approach to the free agent market this winter, however. To the contrary, there are several reasons why they should give serious thought to an even more aggressive winter -- perhaps even breaking their prior free agent precedents -- especially with an early strike to retain Wacha on a three-year contract already complete.
It's not exactly a novel concept to suggest that a team that just completed a surprising playoff berth thanks to big contributions from some on-the-rise stars should spend in free agency, of course. But the Royals are better positioned than many might realize, and if you're looking for dark-horse candidates to make a significant splash in free agency, they're among my favorite picks to do so. Let's break down the reasons.
Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription
- Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
- Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
- Remove ads and support our writers.
- Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker
Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
MLBTR’s Anthony Franco held a live chat today, exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers!
Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription
- Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
- Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
- Remove ads and support our writers.
- Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker
How Will The Market Value Pete Alonso?
There are a few players who are tough to predict during the preparation of the Top 50 free agents every year. Often, they're players whose reputation outpaces their statistical output, especially in their walk year. Pete Alonso is the best example this offseason.
We landed on a five-year, $125MM prediction that ranked him seventh in the class. That seems to be below market consensus. Other estimates of Alonso's earning power have landed in the $140MM to $170MM range.* Those align more closely with the Polar Bear's reputation as a star, putting him in the Freddie Freeman or Matt Olson bucket. Freeman landed a deferred $162MM contract from the Dodgers, while Olson's extension with the Braves guaranteed him $168MM over eight seasons.
Alonso likely expects to be paid similarly. Joel Sherman of the New York Post has reported that Alonso declined a seven-year, $158MM offer from the Mets in June 2023. That would have bought out his final arbitration season and six free agent years. Alonso collected $20.5MM for his last arbitration year, so the extension proposal can be considered akin to $137.5MM over six seasons. As recently as last summer, Alonso and his previous representatives felt he could do better. (He has since hired the Boras Corporation.) He'll need to buck some market trends for that to be the case.
Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription
- Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
- Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
- Remove ads and support our writers.
- Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker
MLB Mailbag: Yankees, Soto, Cole, Santander, Dodgers, Mets
With MLBTR's Top 50 Free Agents list hitting your screens Monday evening, the MLB Mailbag is back. This week's mailbag gets into Plan B for the Yankees if they lose Juan Soto, the Gerrit Cole contract situation, the Reds and Nick Martinez, the Cubs' response to Cody Bellinger staying, the Dodgers' approach to free agent pitching, fits for Anthony Santander, the Mets' payroll, and much more.
Mike asks:
So two of the MLBTR writers pick Soto to leave the Yankees and sign with the Mets. Certainly could happen. What struck me though is I didn't see the writers compensating that loss with heavier spending on other free agents by the Yankees. Seems unlikely. Let's assume Soto leaves. What would be a credible backup plan to cover 1B, an open OF spot and either 3B or 2B as Chisholm could cover one or the other?
A different Mike asks:
What do you think the Yankees pivot to when the Dodgers sign Soto?
Frankly, I find Soto slightly more likely to sign with the Mets than the Yankees, but I picked the Yankees because I had nitpicks about most of the major alternate free agents I could put on the Yankees to compensate. Ah, the annual struggle of making 50 team picks that all make sense. Beyond the Yankees and Mets, I certainly won't rule out the Dodgers or "the field" on Soto. But the question of the Yankees' Plan B came up often in our free agent deliberations.
Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription
- Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
- Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
- Remove ads and support our writers.
- Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker
Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
MLBTR’s Anthony Franco held a live chat today, exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers!
Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription
- Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
- Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
- Remove ads and support our writers.
- Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker