MLB Mailbag: Dodgers, Cardinals, Yankees
This week's mailbag delves into the Dodgers' rotation for 2025, the likelihood of Cody Bellinger opting out, the Cardinals' reset, the Yankees' infield, and much more.
Ben asks:
I'm curious as to how you expect the Dodgers to address their rotation this offseason. The team is laden with talented starters, yet the number of injuries is astounding. Do you expect the team to continue adopting a high-risk, high-reward approach? Will we see them sign a low upside inning-eater or two as insurance? How likely is a reunion with Buehler, and what might the season-opening rotation look like?
When I consider Yoshinobu Yamamoto, I wouldn't say he had a higher injury risk than any other top starter the Dodgers could've gotten. Nor was Trevor Bauer high-risk, healthwise. Brandon McCarthy, Scott Kazmir, and Rich Hill were high injury risk three or four-year deals, but those were eight to ten years ago.
Otherwise, Andrew Friedman has generally gone for one-year starting pitcher deals in free agency: James Paxton, Noah Syndergaard, Tyler Anderson, and Andrew Heaney in recent years. Trade pickups have included Alex Wood, Max Scherzer, and Tyler Glasnow.
I don't know that I see a pattern there, other than eschewing long-term free agent deals for less youthful pitchers. For example, if Max Fried is going to sign for five or six years, I don't expect the Dodgers to do that. Innings eaters have not really been Friedman's thing, with the possible exception of Tyler Anderson coming off a 167-inning campaign.
You could argue that Buehler would be Friedman's type if he was coming from another team. But the Dodgers had all year to try to get him on track this year and failed to do so, so my guess is that they will not re-sign him.
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Offseason Outlook: Washington Nationals
After more than three years of rebuilding, the Nationals enter the offseason with a very clean long-term payroll outlook, young core players emerging at multiple spots on the roster, and a front office that sounds motivated to get back into contention sooner than later.
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Offseason Outlook: Colorado Rockies
The Rockies just wrapped up their sixth straight losing season and second straight with over 100 losses. There are some internal reasons for optimism but they have a difficult path out of the National League West basement.
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From Minor League Deal To Top Reliever In The Upcoming Free Agent Class
Perhaps you haven't heard this before, but relief pitching is volatile. Reliever performance often fluctuates wildly from year to year. At times, that leads to rapid ascensions from obscurity to stardom for players. Look no further than last year's three-year, $33MM deal for Robert Stephenson with the Angels. He'd been designated for assignment less than a calendar year prior but was so dominant in 42 games with the Rays that the Angels ponied up that weighty three-year deal.
Stephenson is just one of many instances of this, of course. Liam Hendriks had been designated for assignment by four different teams before breaking out with the A's. In fact, Oakland was one of the four teams who'd chosen to DFA him. He went unclaimed on waivers. Drew Pomeranz had been bounced from the Giants' rotation in 2019 and was potentially on the cusp of being cut loose himself when a stretch of just four relief appearances prompted the Brewers to give up a legitimate infield prospect (Mauricio Dubon) to acquire him in a trade. Pomeranz dominated for Milwaukee for two more months and went on to ink a four-year, $34MM deal in free agency.
Reliever fortunes can turn quickly, and the upcoming free agent class offers the latest example. It's always fun to wonder who might be the next Hendriks, Pomeranz or Stephenson -- and in this instance, it's even more fun because the buzz name on the market was traded for one of those very relievers just a few years back.
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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
MLBTR’s Anthony Franco held live chat today, exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers. Anthony took questions on the Tigers' surprising playoff run, the A's outlook for 2025, what the Giants should do this offseason, the status of the Nationals' rebuild, the state of the American League, Pittsburgh's catching situation, and much more.
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MLB Mailbag: Red Sox, Cubs, Adames, Adell
Today's mailbag gets into offseason needs for the Red Sox, how the Cubs might fit Matt Shaw in, possible suitors for Willy Adames, whether Jo Adell has turned a corner, and much more.
Dave asks:
As a disgruntled Red Sox fan (mostly due to John Henry pulling in the purse strings), what are the Red Sox's biggest needs going into next season? I think as always the need for another innings eater in the rotation. Also curious as to if Duran was offered as trade, what type of starting pitching would he command? As for free agents - I don't think the Sox will bring back any of them. Although for the right price maybe Pivetta.
Here's how the team sets up right now:
- C - Connor Wong (R)
- 1B - Triston Casas (L)
- 2B - Vaughn Grissom (R)
- SS - Trevor Story (R)
- 3B - Rafael Devers (L)
- LF - Jarren Duran (L)
- CF - Ceddanne Rafaela (R)
- RF - Wilyer Abreu (L)
- DH - Masataka Yoshida (L)
That doesn't include a quartet of highly-regarded position player prospects: outfielder Roman Anthony, shortstop Marcelo Mayer, infielder/center fielder Kristian Campbell, and catcher Kyle Teel. And of course, Rafaela can play center as well as the middle infield.
The Red Sox will need someone to split time at catcher with Wong until Teel is ready, whether it's Danny Jansen or another veteran. Second base has been an issue, with Grissom, Enmanuel Valdez, and David Hamilton getting the bulk of the playing time there. With Mayer, Campbell, and Rafaela all options there, I don't see much room for a veteran.
The outfield pieces can move around as well. Wilyer Abreu has had an excellent rookie season, though he has not shown the ability to hit left-handed pitching. That problem extended even to Devers and Duran this year. Of the prospects I mentioned, only Campbell bats right-handed. Baseball America touched on this issue recently.
Devers had a strong year, while Story's contract demands a starting job. Yoshida, also well-paid, might not have that luxury. The Red Sox signed Rafaela to a $50MM contract in April, but he really hasn't hit outside of July and is on track for a 1-WAR season. I'm not sure where he fits.
At 4.71 runs scored per game, this has been a good offense. That's despite giving regular playing time to Rafaela. It also includes big contributions from Tyler O'Neill, who seems likely to leave as a free agent, and Rob Refsnyder, who's unlikely to repeat.
Given the versatility and uncertainty around several of these players, there are a lot of ways next year's lineup can shake out. I've seen the idea of trading Duran mentioned here and there. Duran, 28, will be arbitration eligible for the first of four times in 2025 and is under control through 2028. He's split his time between center and left field in his breakout season, and played both positions capably. He's one of baseball's fastest players, his arm is strong, and his Statcast hitting metrics are solidly red.
Duran is on track for a 7-WAR season that in many years would make him an MVP frontrunner. He provided the bulk of his offensive value from June through August, during which he had a 168 wRC+. Duran has an 87 wRC+ against lefties this year, though he did hit southpaws well in June and July.
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Eugenio Suarez’s Dramatic Resurgence
Three months ago, it was in doubt whether Eugenio Suárez would finish the season with the Diamondbacks. Arizona's offseason acquisition of the veteran third baseman from the Mariners seemed like a bust. Suárez started the season horribly. He hit .241/.310/.357 through the end of April and fell into an even worse slump over the next two months. From the start of May through the end of June, Suárez posted a .165/.259/.280 line while striking out more than 30% of the time.
By the middle of June, the D-Backs were contemplating a change. On June 9, USA Today's Bob Nightengale wrote that the D-Backs were willing to consider what would've been a salary dump trade. Nightengale indicated that Suárez's hold on the third base job was tenuous and manager Torey Lovullo said a few days later that the Snakes would give more third base reps to rookie Blaze Alexander. That never really transpired, as Alexander scuffled in the limited playing time he did receive.
At the same time, Suárez began to find his footing. He reached base at a .391 clip between the time of Lovullo's comments and the end of the month. Once the calendar flipped to July, he transformed into an elite power threat.
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The Rays Already Look Primed For A Rebound In 2025
After years of regularly exceeding expectations brought about by their low payrolls and reliance on unproven talent and/or reclamation projects, the 2024 Rays have finally had a rough season. At 74-78, they've been out of playoff contention for quite some time and have uncharacteristically been outscored by 60 runs. This will be their first playoff miss since 2018, although even that season saw them win 90 games. This is shaping up to be Tampa Bay's first sub-.500 season since 2017 -- a remarkable feat when considering the front office's perennially limited budget and the subsequent roster churn that brings about.
The Rays operated as sellers at the deadline, trading their most established power bat (Randy Arozarena), two starting pitchers (Zach Eflin, Aaron Civale), their All-Star third baseman (Isaac Paredes), one of their best relievers (Jason Adam) and a series of useful role players (Amed Rosario, Shawn Armstrong, Phil Maton, Tyler Zuber).
Oftentimes, deadline sales of that magnitude serve as a portent for an offseason dedicated to rebuilding, as recently illustrated by the 2023 White Sox and the 2021-22 Nationals. That type of rebuild, however, seems largely unnecessary in Tampa Bay. Even with a lineup consisting of unproven journeymen and a host of light-hitting, glove-first regulars (e.g. Jose Siri, Ben Rortvedt, Jose Caballero), the Rays already look like a team that could jump back into contention as early as next season.
Let's take a look at the reasons for that.
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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
MLBTR’s Anthony Franco held a live chat today at 2:00pm central, exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers.
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MLB Mailbag: Cardinals, Yankees, Mariners, Dodgers
In today's mailbag, we get into a potential offseason plan for the Cardinals, the impact of managers, third base in Seattle, whether the Yankees should sign Juan Soto, NL playoff rotations, and much more.
Sam asks:
Hi Tim, imagine your phone rings and it's Bill DeWitt Jr. he says, "Tim, I've always liked your work at MLBTR and I've decided that I want to focus all my attention on acquiring as many Arby's as possible. 63 just isn't enough. So I've decided to gift you the St. Louis Cardinals and enough money to maintain the team's current ranking in payroll among the other 29 teams for the next 3 years, effective immediately." How do *you* Tim Dierkes go about fixing the Cardinals?
I generally support efforts to put more Arby's into the world.
The Cardinals' current competitive balance tax payroll is about $216MM, so I'll just stick with that. That gives me about $92MM to work with. Key arbitration eligibles include Ryan Helsley, JoJo Romero, Lars Nootbaar, Brendan Donovan, and Andre Pallante. I'm pretty sure those guys will cost less than $20MM, so if I tender them contracts I'll have about $75MM with which to work.
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