MLB Mailbag: Reds, Red Sox, Skubal, Alonso, Prospects, Dodgers, Cubs, Diaz
I'm stepping in for MLBTR founder and owner Tim Dierkes on this week's MLB Mailbag. It's a deadline-heavy edition this week, with questions on the Reds' outlook, Frankie Montas, Jonathan India, the Red Sox, Tarik Skubal, Pete Alonso's future, the 2024 draft, the concept of non-contending clubs using the deadline to buy pieces for the 2025 season, the Dodgers' growing list of needs, the Cubs' uncertain status, and more! Let's get into it.
Matthew H. asks:
No Reds in the Top 50 trade candidates? Was there any consideration to the front office tendency to stand pat in July or was that just the way the names fell?
We'll definitely do at least one more update to our top trade candidates list -- possibly two. The Reds could factor more prominently onto a future version, but as of right now, they're only three games out of the Wild Card hunt in the National League. They're in a key group of borderline contenders -- along with teams like the Cubs, Pirates, Giants and Rangers -- whose deadline fate hinges on how the first few games of the second half shake out. A nine-game road trip to play the Nats, Braves and Rays (in that order) is going to be a major factor.
Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription
- Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
- Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
- Remove ads and support our writers.
- Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker
Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
MLBTR’s Anthony Franco held a live chat today, exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers! Anthony took questions on draft pick trading, whether the Royals could deal from their MLB team for help in other areas, the asking price on Garrett Crochet, Ivan Herrera's value, the Yankees' closing situation, the A's middle infield, where the first Juan Soto trade ranks among the biggest in MLB history, and much more.
Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription
- Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
- Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
- Remove ads and support our writers.
- Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker
The Trade Market Remains Light On Middle Infield Talent
We released our first iteration of the Top 50 trade candidates last week. It was a broadly pitching-heavy list, with 30 of the spots occupied by pitchers. Especially striking is the lack of middle infield talent that'll clearly be available. We listed just four middle infielders among that Top 50.
One of those players, Jazz Chisholm Jr., hadn't actually played an inning in the infield since 2022 at the time of that writing. The Marlins have since begun getting him second base work in an apparent effort to showcase his defensive flexibility for interested teams. Bo Bichette made the back of the Top 50 because he's a marquee name, but the Blue Jays haven't suggested a willingness to deal key players whom they control beyond this season. He's still a long shot to move. The other two middle infielders to make the list: Paul DeJong and Brendan Rodgers, each of whom is at best a low-end regular.
Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription
- Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
- Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
- Remove ads and support our writers.
- Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker
Another Contending Club That Could Have Pitching To Spare
A couple of weeks ago, in a piece for Front Office subscribers, MLBTR's Steve Adams highlighted some clubs that he figured could walk a buy/sell tightrope at the deadline. The teams he featured are all contenders, but with enough starting pitching options that they could plausibly "sell" a pitcher or two while still trying to compete here in 2024. In recent weeks, there's one other rotation that has suddenly become quite crowded as the team has been climbing in the standings.
Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription
- Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
- Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
- Remove ads and support our writers.
- Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker
Current And Former Top Prospects To Watch As The Trade Deadline Approaches
Last week, MLBTR's Anthony Franco ran through a handful of under-the-radar trade candidates for teams on the hunt for bullpen help. It was a simple enough premise. While there's rightly a heavy focus placed on high-quality relievers on bad teams (e.g. Mason Miller, Tanner Scott, Carlos Estevez), MLB teams will be casting a wider net than just those obvious trade candidates.
I wanted to do something similar with hitters -- and may still do so -- but as I parsed through some potential options, I was also struck by the likelihood that there are a number of current and former (more of the latter) top prospects who increasingly look like they'll have an uphill battle to earning a role with their current club. Oftentimes, this is due to other prospects leapfrogging them on the depth chart, the team extending a current key player and/or injuries. While today's front offices tend to hoard depth as much as possible the finite number of minor league options a player possesses can put an inherent clock on that depth's shelf life.
Not all of the players highlighted in this exercise are teetering on being out of options, nor is this intended to be an exhaustive list of names in this situation. (If there's anyone you feel I missed, by all means, let me know in the comments and bring them to the discussion!) I'm also not going to focus much on former prospects who've already been passed through waivers/released or those who are performing poorly enough in the minors that they're now DFA candidates themselves.
The aim here is to find some interesting, controllable names still on the 40-man roster who have decent minor league (and in some cases, big league) track records but lack a clear path to an everyday role on their current roster. That sort of player ought to have appeal to rebuilding teams or retooling sellers who are looking to take another shot at contending as soon as next year. Here are a few situations that seem worth monitoring as the deadline draws near:
Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription
- Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
- Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
- Remove ads and support our writers.
- Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker
Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
MLBTR’s Anthony Franco held a live chat today at 2:00pm central, exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers.
Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription
- Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
- Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
- Remove ads and support our writers.
- Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker
Under-The-Radar Bullpen Trade Candidates
A number of relievers move every deadline season. Almost every contender could at least upgrade upon the seventh or eighth man in their bullpen. Others urgently need to bring in one or more high-leverage pieces. Teams outside the playoff picture are usually willing to field offers on their relievers, particularly on middle innings arms.
This summer's market will feature a few obvious names. Carlos Estévez and Tanner Scott are good impending free agent closers on bad teams. They're going to move. Yimi García, John Brebbia, Luis García, Dylan Floro, Scott Alexander, T.J. McFarland, Derek Law and Jalen Beeks are affordable rental middle relievers on clubs that are at best fringe contenders. They could each go for a mid-tier prospect. Hunter Harvey, Kyle Finnegan and Michael Kopech -- each of whom are controllable through 2025 -- have already been the subject of trade rumors. So has A's breakout closer Mason Miller, although Oakland would need to be blown away to move him with another five years of team control.
Those are some of the more obvious options. Most teams will cast an even wider net, though, identifying a few players of interest who aren't prototypical trade candidates. There are typically a couple controllable relievers who find themselves on the move even if they weren't the subject of many pre-deadline rumors. Scott Effross and Colin Holderman fit that bill a couple years ago. Jose Cuas, Peter Strzelecki and Manuel Rodríguez were dealt at last summer's deadline.
Predicting long shot trade candidates is by definition going to lead to more misses than hits. Most of the following players will still be on their current teams come August. Yet I'll try to identify a few controllable bullpen pieces who have a small but realistic chance to be traded in the next couple weeks.
Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription
- Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
- Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
- Remove ads and support our writers.
- Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker
Tim Dierkes’ MLB Mailbag: Skubal, Cardinals, Verdugo, Chisholm
In this week's mailbag, I get into a possible extension for Tarik Skubal, potential fits for Ivan Herrera and Alex Verdugo, and many more trade-related questions.
Kevin asks:
Is a short term extension possible? Tarik will make about 30 million in arbitration for 2025 and 2026. What if Detroit offered him 100 million for 2025/26/27 and 28 ? Slight two year delay for Tarik but money in hand and manageable amount for Detroit. Thoughts?
Skubal, perhaps the current favorite for the AL Cy Young award, turns 28 in November. As Kevin said, the lefty has two more years of arbitration eligibility before hitting free agency in advance of his age-30 season.
Skubal is a Boras client, but there is reason for him to consider locking in a big payday now. His 2022 season ended on August 1 due to something alternately called forearm inflammation and then just "left arm fatigue." He went on to have flexor tendon surgery on August 17 of that year. As a result, Skubal's 2023 debut was on July 4th, and he returned a different pitcher. He averaged 94.29 miles per hour on his four-seam fastball in 2022, and after he returned from surgery the following year, that was up to 95.81. He started throwing his four-seamer more and his strikeout rate leapt forward, turning Skubal into one of the game's best pitchers.
This year, Skubal's fastball velocity has climbed further still, up to 96.99 mph. Since June 19th, he's at 97.47. In very Jacob deGrom-like fashion, Skubal is now throwing a full three mph faster than he was before his surgery.
Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription
- Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
- Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
- Remove ads and support our writers.
- Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker
Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
Due to the Fourth of July, Darragh McDonald covered the weekly Front Office chat for Anthony Franco.
Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription
- Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
- Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
- Remove ads and support our writers.
- Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker
Which Other Postseason Hopefuls Might Have Arms To Spare?
The Rays made a somewhat unconventional trade Wednesday, shipping right-hander Aaron Civale to the Brewers in exchange for infield prospect Gregory Barrios. Tampa Bay had the luxury of moving a current member of its rotation despite the fact that the team is still in the Wild Card race and still harbors postseason aspirations. That's due primarily to the organizational depth in the rotation, which was thin earlier in the season but is deepening as the year wears on and as injured arms like Shane Baz, Jeffrey Springs and (eventually) Drew Rasmussen reenter the fold. Baz will step into the Rays' rotation in Civale's place this Friday.
Most teams don't have that type of cushion. Starting pitching is always at a premium, and starters -- particularly those with multiple years of club control remaining -- tend to be the most coveted asset at nearly every MLB trade deadline.
And yet, the Rays aren't the only club that's poised to operate in this capacity over the next 27 days. There are a handful of teams who could walk the line of dealing from the big league roster -- specifically the rotation -- despite hoping to find themselves playing a prominent role in October baseball. Let's take a look at some possibilities.
Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription
- Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
- Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
- Remove ads and support our writers.
- Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker