Tim Dierkes’ MLB Mailbag: Cubs, Dodgers, Cardinals, Mets
This week's mailbag covers the Cubs trading an outfielder, what the Dodgers, Cardinals, and Mets might do at the deadline, Kevin Gausman's decline, and much more. Let's get into it!
Kyle asks:
Would the Chicago Cubs consider selling Seiya Suzuki at the deadline? What would it cost the Mariners to acquire him?
Robert asks:
Given their contracts and relative underperformance, would there be any takers for Seiya Suzuki or Ian Happ if the Cubs decide to sell? If so, could they get anything decent in return? Anyone else on the Cubs that could fetch anything worthwhile?
Brandon asks:
Do you forecast a strong trade market for Cody Bellinger?
The key factor to consider here is that Suzuki and Happ were given full no-trade clauses as an enticement to sign. That doesn't necessarily make a player immovable. But for example, if Suzuki simply doesn't want to play in Seattle under any circumstances, that's that. A lot of times, though, players don't want to stay if they're not wanted, and some sort of bonus can be negotiated for accepting a trade.
Suzuki, 30 in August, has matched his career average with a 122 wRC+ this season. Despite increased strikeouts, he hit the ball well in June. His right field defense has been subpar, but not a total killer. He's been something short of a 3-WAR player per 140 games. The Cubs, certainly hoping for a breakout after Suzuki's scorching finish last year, have instead gotten more of a solid regular who needs the occasional IL trip. He's earning $20MM this year and $36MM from 2025-26.
If Suzuki has surplus value relative to his contract, it isn't much, though the trade market isn't teeming with solid regulars. The Mariners have a bunch of 45-50 grade prospects a bit down their list that I think could net a player like Suzuki.
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The Risk/Reward Of Acquiring Players With Opt-Outs
With four weeks until the trade deadline, a lot remains uncertain. Most teams still find themselves in a muddled middle and will wait until the last few days to determine how aggressively they'll buy or sell. That's especially true in the National League, where nine teams are within six games of one another as they fight for the final two Wild Card spots. The Mets, Giants and Cubs are among those borderline contenders. It wouldn't be especially surprising to see any of them wind up as sellers depending on how they play over the next few weeks.
The Mets are the NL's top non-playoff team and approaching the deadline as a buyer for the moment. Dropping a few games back in the standings by the end of the month could change that mentality. San Francisco and Chicago are a little further out and perhaps likelier sellers. Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer suggested late last week that the team would need to perform better to avoid a sell-off. Why focus on those three specifically? Each has a notable player who'd be desirable trade candidates if not for their contract structures.
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The Cubs Keep Trying The Same Thing, And It’s Not Working
While the Cubs' 2024 season got out to a strong start that saw them sitting a season-high seven games above .500 on May 12, things have spiraled quickly. Since opening the year 24-17, Chicago has played at an abysmal 14-27 clip. That's six and a half weeks of .341 ball that has dropped them to 38-44 -- last place in the National League Central. They're 10.5 games back of the Brewers for the division lead. A four-game deficit in the NL Wild Card race normally wouldn't seem insurmountable, but it's a bit more daunting when a whopping seven teams stand between them and the final Wild Card spot.
There's no shortage of flaws with the current iteration of the Cubs. They're tied for 21st in the majors in home runs, tied for 18th in runs scored and tied for 24th in both batting average and slugging percentage. They've received no production at all from their catchers. On the pitching side, the rotation has had its share of health-related struggles. Justin Steele missed all of April and another start in May. Javier Assad just joined fellow young starters Ben Brown and Jordan Wicks on the injured list. The Cubs' defense has been middle-of-the-pack, at best.
There's one glaring struggle that's plagued them again and again in recent years, however, and one of the driving reasons behind it is easy to see.
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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
MLBTR’s Anthony Franco held a live chat today, exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers. Anthony took questions on the appeal of going underslot in the draft, the Rockies' pitching development challenges, Guardians' outfield targets, Jurickson Profar's market value, Ben Cherington's GM tenure in Pittsburgh, the Tigers' deadline approach, whether teams can move more pitchers from the bullpen to the rotation, and much more.
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Tim Dierkes’ MLB Mailbag: Francisco Alvarez, Hoerner, Crochet, And More
This week's mailbag gets into a potential Francisco Alvarez extension, trading Nico Hoerner, valuing Garrett Crochet, potential outfield additions for the Braves, and much more. Let's get into it!
Ben asks:
What would be a fair contract extension for the Mets and Francisco Alvarez? He is so talented and a great leader for such a young kid, have to imagine he will get expensive in arbitration.
I wrote an answer to this and then ran it by Steve Adams, Anthony Franco, and Darragh McDonald. They threw cold water on some outlandish contract ideas I had for the Mets' young catcher.
Comparable contracts are lacking for Alvarez. I don't think comps need to be catcher-specific, especially because there are so few good ones. The Buster Posey and Joe Mauer deals are too old. Will Smith signed with four years of service and the Dodgers got his age 29-37 seasons, with a luxury tax dodge as a core feature.
One that comes to mind in the 2+ class, where Alvarez will be after the season, is Andres Gimenez. He signed a seven year, $106.5MM extension. Some of the other MLBTR writers see this as something of a ceiling for Alvarez, and I assume the Mets would feel similarly. At present, I'll take the over on that.
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The Rotation Trade Market Takes Two More Hits
The past few days haven't been good for teams looking to acquire controllable starting pitching. On Friday, Angels southpaw Patrick Sandoval came out of his start shaking his arm. The Halos put him on the 15-day injured list the next day with an elbow strain. One day later, the Marlins announced that Jesús Luzardo was being shut down with a lumbar stress reaction in his back. Miami almost immediately put him on the 60-day injured list -- ruling him out into August.
Sandoval hasn't officially been ruled out beyond the early part of July, but it's hard to imagine he's looking at a minimal IL stint. Within 48 hours, two of the most talented controllable starting pitchers who could've plausibly been available instead very likely came off the trade market. (Players can still be traded while on the injured list, but it'd be such a sell-low on either pitcher that Sandoval and Luzardo would almost certainly stay put.)
Starting pitching injuries have been an unfortunate storyline throughout the season. Almost every team has been impacted, leaving all but a handful of contenders looking for rotation help over the next five weeks. Barring injuries of their own, the Mariners, Phillies and perhaps Yankees could feel great about the strength of their rotation. Everyone else has at least one or two points on which they could upgrade. Milwaukee, Houston, Baltimore, Atlanta, San Diego, Arizona and St. Louis could go into deadline season viewing the rotation as their top priority.
There aren't enough healthy starters to go around. Teams like the D-Backs and Reds came up empty in rotation pursuits at the '23 trade deadline. That'll be the case for a handful of teams yet again, particularly with two more arms more or less off the board. The White Sox are even more firmly positioned to dominate the market for controllable starting pitching, while the dwindling supply could provide an opportunity for a team like the Rockies or Rays to get good value for a mid-rotation type.
There are a handful of impending free agents who could change hands -- Jack Flaherty, Yusei Kikuchi and Luis Severino among them. Flaherty looks to have pulled to the top of the rental starter group. The supply of starters under control beyond the 2024 campaign is dwindling, though. Let's take stock of that market:
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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
MLBTR’s Anthony Franco held a live chat today at 3:00pm central, exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers. Anthony took questions on the Mariners' deadline, a hypothetical A's/Pirates trade involving JJ Bleday and Jack Suwinski, the Yankees' priorities this summer, whether the Nationals will push for a top-of-the-market free agent, baseball podcast recommendations and more.
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MLB Mailbag: Astros, Cubs, Mariners, Cardinals, Nats, Chisholm
I’m pinch-hitting for MLBTR owner Tim Dierkes for this week’s edition of the MLBTR Mailbag. This week, we'll look at Houston's dreadful first base situation, the Cubs' recent struggles, the Mariners' recent surge, the Cardinals' needs, the Nationals' deadline outlook, Jazz Chisholm Jr.'s trade value, and more!
Reynold asks:
There are a number of first basemen on the discard pile. If you were [Astros GM] Dana Brown, do you pick any of those suspects over Jon Singleton? J.D. Davis, Garrett Cooper, etc?
Singleton is a pretty remarkable comeback story, and for him to even make it to the majors at all after such a lengthy hiatus -- let alone find himself in a regular role -- is commendable. Sentimentality doesn't win games, however, and Singleton is a 32-year-old subpar defender whose .219/.319/.331 batting line is below average and nowhere near strong enough to offset his lack of value with the glove. I'm as surprised as most Astros fans that the team is still trotting him out there.
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The Rangers’ Surprising Problem
Each week at MLBTR, it seems we're covering a development that further tanks the Astros' chances of competing for a playoff spot. We've devoted less attention to their in-state rivals, but the Rangers are in no better a situation. Texas and Houston have identical 33-40 records after the Rangers' five-game losing streak. They're only four games clear of the Angels for fourth place in the AL West.
Texas starting the season slowly isn't a huge surprise in itself (even if the extent of their struggles is). The eye-opener is in the way the team has underperformed. The Rangers opened the season without Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer and Tyler Mahle. They were largely trying to stay afloat for the first couple months before welcoming that trio of starters back throughout the summer. The early-season rotation was the big question -- the main reason the Rangers might find themselves closer to the bottom of the AL West than the top more than halfway into June.
Starting pitching has not been the problem. Texas is middle-of-the-pack in that regard, solid work from a staff without three of its most talented arms. The collapse has been on the other side of the ball. The Ranger offense hasn't performed. An outfield that looked like one of the game's most talented groups has been a disaster. It's not the easiest problem for GM Chris Young to address at the deadline -- if the Rangers find themselves in position to add at all next month.
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The Jesus Luzardo Alternative Who *Should* Be Available Next Month
Find virtually any primer for the 2024 trade deadline and you'll see Jesus Luzardo's name at or near the top of the discussion. He's probably even the feature image on many of those pieces. It's not hard to see why. A hard-throwing 26-year-old lefty with two seasons of club control beyond the current campaign and big strikeout abilities is always going to be in demand. And the Marlins, sitting at 23-48 on the season, have effectively been out of postseason contention since the second week of the season. A 1-12 start to the year will do that to you.
Luzardo might be the most talked-about name on the trade market this summer and has a far better chance to move than your standard prime-aged starting pitcher with two-plus seasons of club control. The Marlins already traded Luis Arraez in early May, after all. They're clearly open for business.
Nearly everything I just said about Luzardo applies to another lefty on the opposite coast. And yet for all the Luzardo chatter we've already heard and will continue to hear, the trade buzz between the two southpaws doesn't align.
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