Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

MLBTR's Steve Adams hosted a live chat today at 2:00pm CT, exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers. Click the link below to read the transcript.

 

 

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Several Veterans Who Could Be Available On Waivers This Month

Now that the trade deadline has come and gone, it's harder for contending clubs to upgrade their respective rosters. There are still a few ways to do so, as MLBTR's Steve Adams recently laid out, but most of those methods involve adding guys not currently rostered who are naturally depth pieces at best.

To add a solid, usable big leaguer, the best remaining path is waivers. The old August waiver trade system ended in 2019, but many veteran players found themselves on waivers last August anyway, which started with the Angels.

The Halos fell out of contention in August and their priority shifted from winning to ducking under the competitive balance tax. Since trades were no longer possible, they put a whole bunch of guys on waivers and just hoped that other clubs would take them, the baseball equivalent of putting a "for free" box by the curb. Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo López, Randal Grichuk, Matt Moore, Hunter Renfroe, Dominic Leone and Tyler Anderson were put on waivers and then other clubs followed suit, though to a less significant degree. The Yankees had no hope of avoiding the CBT but were slipping in the standings and had no use for an impending free agent like Harrison Bader. It was a similar situation with the Mets and Carlos Carrasco. The Tigers and White Sox weren't going to be CBT payors but made José Cisnero and Mike Clevinger available, simply hoping to cut costs.

Because the waiver priority order goes in reverse order of standings, the clubs best positioned to benefit were those just on the fringes of contention. The teams buried in the standings would have no motivation to grab such players and take on salary while the teams at the top of the standings would get last dibs in the waiver process. The Guardians claimed Giolito, López and Moore while the Reds grabbed Bader and Renfroe.

It doesn't seem like this trend will stop here in 2024. This year, Kevin Kiermaier, Ty France and Josh Bell have already been on waivers at some point. All three players cleared and were ultimately traded prior to the deadline, with some money changing hands in each of those deals. Others will surely follow them in the weeks to come, but clubs won't be able to work out trades involving cash considerations. The claiming club will have to take on all that's left of the contract from the waiving club.

Logically, these players will be available on waivers before the end of August. Players acquired after that time are not postseason eligible, which limits the attraction, though it could still happen. After the Guards fell from contention, they put Moore back on waivers just a few weeks after claiming him, and the Marlins nabbed him at that time. He made four scoreless appearances for Miami, helping them squeak into the playoffs, but wasn't eligible to join the club in the postseason.

So who could be available this time around? The most likely players are those making a notable salary on a club that could fall back in the playoff race, particularly one with CBT concerns. But an underwater contract won't be terribly appealing, so the player should still have some utility that makes it at least vaguely justifiable for the claiming club to take on some money. Many of these will require the team to really perform poorly in the next few weeks, making them long-shot possibilities, but let's take a look at some of the most interesting guys who could plausibly fit the bill.

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Tim Dierkes’ MLB Mailbag: Waivers, Gleyber, Goldschmidt

This week's mailbag gets into possible waiver contract dumping, Gleyber Torres' free agency, teams' interest in Trevor Rogers, the Cardinals re-signing Paul Goldschmidt, and much more.

Ben asks:

What teams might we expect to see make some last minute, financially-motivated maneuvers to avoid the consequences of the luxury tax? Do you anticipate any notable players being placed on waivers, such as when Lucas Giolito and Matt Moore were made available last August? Which teams would be in prime position to take advantage of this system?

Joseph asks:

You guys recently did a piece on how players could move post-deadline. Could you envision a scenario where a taxpayer like the Giants fall out of the wild-card race then put a bunch of expensive pending free agents (like Snell or Conforto) on waivers to dump salary in an attempt to duck under the CBT? I remember that happening forever ago with the Angels and Vernon Wells, but never with a star player playing really well like Snell. How crazy would that be for an impact player to get claimed on waivers and influence the playoff race?

Since competitive balance tax penalties are compounding up to the third consecutive time a team goes over, there's benefit to "resetting" and getting under the base tax rate so you can become a first-time payor in 2025.  Doing so requires dipping under $237MM this year.  Failing that, it's still beneficial to avoid going over the second surcharge threshold of $277MM, which triggers your highest available draft pick moving back ten spots.

Additionally, CBT payor status affects the mechanics of losing or signing a qualified free agent.

The Rangers have a case.  Cot's Baseball Contracts has their projected CBT payroll at about $251MM, and they paid the luxury tax last year.  If the Rangers were to fall further out, they could put impending free agents such as Max Scherzer, Andrew Heaney, David Robertson, Jose Leclerc, Kirby Yates, Andrew Chafin, and Carson Kelly on waivers.  Though such a scheme could benefit the Rangers, it's possible it could rankle these veteran players, particularly if it serves as an end-run around Scherzer's no-trade rights.  It may be a moot point, as he's on the IL at present, but this could become an option if Scherzer is healthy and actually wants to finish the season with a contender.  The Rangers are five games out in the AL West at the moment.

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MLB Mailbag: Snell, Offseason, Orioles, A’s, Erceg, Pirates, Marlins, Angels

I'm stepping in for Tim Dierkes on this week's MLBTR Mailbag once again. In this week's post-deadline edition, we'll look at the Giants, Blake Snell, some likely offseason trade candidates, the Orioles' bullpen decisions at the deadline, some of the Athletics' latest trade returns, the Pirates' deadline moves, the Marlins "everything must go" sale, Emmanuel Clase's Cy Young chances, the Angels' deadline deals and more.

Adrian R. asks:

Why does Farhan Zaidi continually nibble at the margins, like at this trade deadline, and not cash in valuable trade assets for a pending free agent/opt out like Blake Snell? Is Farhan Zaidi really the smartest guy in the room as he likes to think of himself?

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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

MLBTR’s Anthony Franco held a live chat today at 2:00pm central, exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers. Anthony fielded various deadline-related questions.

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11 Long Shot Trade Candidates

We're less than 24 hours from the deadline. There has been a flurry of activity dating back to Thursday night, taking a few of the top names (e.g Randy Arozarena, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Carlos EstévezIsaac Paredes) off the board. We've devoted ample attention to the likes of Garrett CrochetJack Flaherty and Yusei Kikuchi.

Every deadline features some late surprises. Talks don't always get over the line, but we're likely to hear about discussions on marquee names who are less clear trade candidates than are the good players with limited contractual control on bad teams. None of the following players are likely to be traded. They've probably each got less than a 20% chance of changing uniforms. There's an argument for teams to listen on these players, though they're of varying ability and trade value.

Tarik Skubal

Skubal might be the best pitcher in baseball. If the Tigers trade him, it'd be the biggest transaction of the summer. He's probably the frontrunner for the American League Cy Young award behind a 2.35 earned run average with a 30% strikeout rate over 130 innings. Detroit is three games below .500 and 5.5 out in the Wild Card race. Last night's Carson Kelly trade shows they're willing to move rentals. Needless to say, a Skubal trade would be in another stratosphere of significance.

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The Blue Jays Shouldn’t Be Resisting A Reset

The 2024 season clearly hasn't gone the way the Blue Jays hoped. Expected to contend for a Wild Card spot at the very least, the Jays have instead encountered notable injuries (Jordan Romano, Alek Manoah) and seen career-worst performances from several key players (Bo Bichette, Alejandro Kirk, Justin Turner, Kevin Kiermaier). Top prospect Orelvis Martinez received an 80-game PED suspension. Very, very little has gone well in Toronto -- as evidenced by their 46-56 record and -82 run differential.

Unsurprisingly, Toronto has become a deadline seller. The front office reportedly isn't interested in any kind of large-scale rebuild, however, and is focused on primarily selling off rental assets. Reliever Yimi Garcia has already been traded to the Mariners. Starter Yusei Kikuchi and the aforementioned Turner are among the candidates to change hands. That'll bring back some modest returns in terms of prospects. It's also not sufficient for a team in Toronto's situation.

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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

MLBTR’s Anthony Franco held a live chat today, exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers! Anthony took questions on the Randy Arozarena and A.J. Puk trades, whether the Yankees will trade from the top of their farm system, where Brent Rooker might land, whether the Dodgers should deal young pitching for Garrett Crochet, the Tigers' shortstop possibilities, the chances the Giants find a taker for Blake Snell, and much more.

 

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Tim Dierkes’ MLB Mailbag: Skubal, Rooker, Orioles, Padres

Today's mailbag marks the last one before the trade deadline, and covers the likelihood of Tarik Skubal and Brent Rooker trades, what the Orioles, Padres, Tigers, and other teams might do, and much more.   For further discussion of many of these topics, check out the MLBTR podcast as well.

Paul asks:

How aggressive do you see Detroit being in moving Tarik Skubal? As an O's fan I am wondering if a package centered around Basallo and some lesser guys like Norby and Stowers could get it done.

I do not expect the Tigers to trade Skubal.  They've got the AL Cy Young favorite under control through 2026 at well below-market arbitration prices.  In a couple of months, president of baseball operations Scott Harris will reach his two-year anniversary with the team.  Trading Skubal right now seems like a bit of a surrender for 2025-26, at a point in his tenure where it seems like Harris should increasingly be pushing chips in.

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The A’s Difficult Deadline Decision

The A's are one of the few obvious sellers this summer. Oakland will certainly move some players by next Tuesday, but it's not clear if they'll dominate the trade market. The A's don't have anyone on significant long-term commitments that they'll be trying to offload. They could move a couple middle relievers and call it a deadline.

That's not all that interesting. Their bigger decisions will be whether to deal players under team control. They've reportedly set a massive demand on Mason Miller, whom they could stretch back into a rotation role next season. Miller has been the subject of a ton of trade speculation with good reason. There's been less chatter, at least publicly, about Brent Rooker.

The front office might have an even tougher call in the coming days regarding Rooker than they do with their star closer. Rooker has been one of the most productive offensive players in baseball over the past season and a half. He could be the best hitter traded. Yet his winding career arc makes him a tricky player to value -- potentially making it tough for the A's and other teams to align on an asking price.

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