2013 Vesting Options
Which players can lock in 2013 contract options based on their 2012 performance? Let's take a look.
- Jason Bartlett, Padres: $5.5MM option vests with 432 plate appearances.
- Alex Gonzalez, Brewers: $4MM option vests with 525 plate appearances.
- Chipper Jones, Braves: $9MM+ option vests with 123 games.
- Kevin Gregg, Orioles: $6MM option vests with 50 games finished.
- Brett Myers, Astros: $10MM option vests based on unknown starting or relieving milestones.
NL Central Notes: Molina, Astros, Das
There's been lots of Pirates buzz today, following Andrew McCutchen's six year, $51.5MM contract extension. Here are some notes on the rest of the division…
- Yadier Molina's representatives were preparing to aim for a seven-year deal in the $140MM range if the catcher had reached free agency, according to Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com. Some teams might have been willing to part with that kind of cash for Molina, an elite two-way player. "He's like the Deion Sanders of catchers,'' one executive told Heyman. Molina, who would have been eligible for free agency following the 2012 season, signed a five-year, $75MM extension with the Cardinals last week.
- Astros GM Jeff Luhnow tells Tyler Kepner of the New York Times that he believes discipline is necessary for building an MLB team. “The analogy I use is blackjack,” Luhnow said. “You play perfect strategy over a long haul, that’s going to be your best outcome." Tim Dierkes spoke with Luhnow last week.
- Arbitrator Shyam Das was recently in the news for ruling in favor of Brewers outfielder Ryan Braun, but as Cary Spivak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel explains, the 67-year-old former law professor has ruled on a number of important MLB issues in the past. Das has dealt with trades, player discipline and other disputes between the players' union and MLB. Spivak's piece offers a personal look at the low-profile arbitrator.
The Next Frontier Of Baseball Analysis
The Sloan Sports Analytics Conference assembled an excellent baseball panel this year in Boston. Host Rob Neyer asked participants their thoughts on the next frontier in baseball analysis, and a few highlights follow.
Red Sox senior advisor of baseball operations Bill James gave a two-part answer. First, James feels "one of the things we most need to understand better is how levels of competition fit together so that the information we get from one level can be interpreted at another level in a way that is more helpful." James says "we really don't have a clue" how levels such as college, Double-A, and Japan fit together. Second, James believes that teams and players act in their best interest, even if it's not beneficial for the game as a whole. He gave an example of a player stepping out of the box to regain his focus. That 30 second break helps the player perform his best, but delays of this nature are bad for baseball in general, because they cause many to consider the game boring to watch.
Astros GM Jeff Luhnow wasn't actually answering Neyer's question at the time, but he volunteered his thoughts, saying, "The frontier from my perspective is really turning that player evaluation into player valuation. When Scott [Boras] and I have a conversation about a player, this player may be 12 runs above average and another player might be 10 runs above average, but there's so many other factors that go into whether I'm going to be willing to pay more or less for that player. For example, we always talk about the most likely outcome for this player, but what's the distribution look like? Is there a 10% chance that he's below replacement level, is there a 10% chance that he's above superstar level?"
Indians president Mark Shapiro spoke of an "infinite number of things that I don't know," but mentioned during the conference that "medical is an absolute separator." Agent Scott Boras focused on psychology, as a means to increasing the chances of players reaching their potential. Rays baseball operations special assistant Rocco Baldelli wonders why some players develop the ability to hit, and some do not.
The panel provided a wide array of answers, but Luhnow's resonated most with me. We often apply straightforward methods to determine what constitutes a good free agent signing, but projecting a player's WAR and multiplying by the price of a win is just a starting point. Both Luhnow and Shapiro lamented the inability to tell fans all the factors that went into a decision, so unfortunately there will always be missing information for those outside the front office.
Central Notes: Luhnow, Hart, Braun, Zumaya
Some links from baseball's Central Divisions for your Sunday reading…
- New Astros general manager Jeff Luhnow has the right outlook, but very few pieces to work with, writes Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. One scout told Heyman that aside from Carlos Lee, only two players in the Astros' projected lineup have a chance to be even league-average hitters: Jason Castro and Chris Johnson.
- Corey Hart has torn cartilage in his knee that will require arthroscopic surgery and sideline him for three-to-four weeks, writes Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel. Brewers manager Ron Roenicke said they won't rush Hart back like they did from an oblique injury that cost him his 2011 Spring Training, and that Hart will likely open the season on the disabled list.
- MLBPA executive director Michael Weiner told Haudricourt that the leak in Ryan Braun's positive drug test was an isolated, case-specific incident and that the process doesn't have a confidentiality problem.
- Joel Zumaya has opted for Tommy John surgery, writes MLB.com's Rhett Bollinger. Dr James Andrews will perform the operation at the end of March, and the Twins have yet to decide if they'll place Zumaya on the 60-day DL or release him, assistant GM Rob Antony told Bollinger.
Cafardo On Jones, Nationals, Floyd, Indians, Red Sox
Agent Scott Boras told Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe that he expects trade deadline activity to decrease because the superpowers in baseball are going to save money on the luxury tax and can’t spend it in the draft. Boras was in attendance for the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference in Boston and our own Tim Dierkes sat down for an interview with the super agent. Here's more from Cafardo's Sunday column..
- The Orioles' Adam Jones keeps popping up in trade discussions with the Nationals, but O's sources indicate that there’s very little chance he'll be dealt. The Nats are trying to figure out center field, and for the moment they’re content with using Jayson Werth, Roger Bernadina, and Rick Ankiel. However, they will be scouting Michael Bourn, B.J. Upton, Gerardo Parra, and Peter Bourjos in spring training.
- White Sox right-hander Gavin Floyd could be in play for the Blue Jays or Red Sox. The White Sox don’t appear eager to move Floyd, but GM Kenny Williams wouldn’t be shy if it brought him a decent bounty in return.
- The Indians will try to fill in for Grady Sizemore with Michael Brantley, but their scouts are looking for a center field option in the trade market.
- Free agent Adonis Garcia is drawing interest from several teams, but the Red Sox aren’t overly enamored, according to a team source.
- Roy Oswalt is still in play and later in camp the Red Sox could put on a full-court press for him.
- The Rays are looking for a catcher to back up Jose Molina and Boras may look to put Ivan Rodriguez in that spot.
- There seems to be concern that the Astros are shooting themselves in the foot by moving starter Brett Myers into the closer role as he is one of the veterans they have been trying to deal. Teams typically need innings-eaters over late-inning relievers.
- Cafardo wonders aloud if Terry Francona will land with the Mets when he resumes his managerial career.
Luhnow On Myers, Draft, Astros
New Astros GM Jeff Luhnow participated on the baseball analytics panel today at the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference. A few highlights:
- After the panel, I mentioned to Luhnow that his decision to move Brett Myers to the Astros' closer role has raised a few eyebrows. I asked if he thought Myers will have more impact in the bullpen than the rotation, and the GM replied, "I think for our team, right now, where we are and what we need, Myers in the bullpen is going to help us. We've got some options in the rotation and we really didn't have good options for that [closer] role. He's excited about it, and I'm excited to see how it works out. If it doesn't work out, we can always go back to the other way." As to whether the two parties would "re-restructure" the contract in that case, Luhnow said that would not be necessary because it's currently structured so it can go either way.
- During the panel, Luhnow explained what it's like to make a move that is not well-received. "It's frustrating, because you wish you could tell the fans everything that went into the decision. You go on FanGraphs and you read stuff about the player, and if that's all the information you had, you might make a different decision. But you've got a lot of information from the clubhouse, medical information, you have a lot of other pieces that are relevant that you really can't discuss. You're going to be second-guessed no matter what, so you just have to take it and move on."
- "You can't go wrong" with the first overall pick in the draft, Luhnow told me. He's never picked higher than Brett Wallace at #13 in 2008 for the Cardinals. He says there's already a short list of candidates for the Astros' 1-1 pick in 2012. I mentioned the huge expectations for such a pick, and Luhnow replied, "No question about it, there have been 1-1s that have not worked out well and we hope that we're one of the 1-1s that turns out to be a franchise player. That's the
expectation, that's the goal. There's risk in any player you select in the draft, but hopefully we'll take one that will move quickly and be an impact player." - "There's no question that sports analytics helped the St. Louis Cardinals win the World Series last year," said Luhnow on the panel. He said the Cardinals didn't have much with respect to analytics when he arrived in 2003, and the Astros are similar nine years later. He considers a blank slate "a huge opportunity to gain an edge." Luhnow says he's hired ten people since being named Astros GM, and "four of them were geeks, nerds, computer guys."
- Luhnow says the Dominican amateur market is almost inverted from the bargains of 10-15 years ago, and likes the limitations imposed in the new collective bargaining agreement.
NL Central Notes: Burnett, Cardinals, Astros
Though two NL Central veterans dominated headlines this offseason, Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder signed with American League teams and Aramis Ramirez's three-year, $36MM deal with the Brewers was the largest free agent contract by any of the division's six teams. Here are the latest links from the NL Central…
- The Pirates announced that they expect A.J. Burnett’s eye injury to sideline him until two or three months from now. The right-hander underwent surgery today after injuring himself in a bunting drill.
- Cardinals chairman and CEO Bill DeWitt Jr. told Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com that the Cardinals couldn't take the chance of letting Yadier Molina hit free agency. "We didn't extend Molina because he had a good year offensively last year,” he said. “We extended him because of the bulk of the work since he became a regular in 2005." Molina and the Cardinals finalized a five-year, $75MM extension yesterday.
- Four of the ten people Astros GM Jeff Luhnow has hired might be described as geeks or nerds, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes reports from the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference in Boston (Twitter links). Luhnow said he’s had a clean slate, since the Astros weren't doing much in terms of analytics before hiring him.
Quick Hits: Rendon, Astros, Royals
On this date last year, Adam Wainwright underwent Tommy John surgery, but it didn't stop the Cardinals from winning the 2011 World Series. Earlier today Tyler Kepner of the New York Times looked back at the moment Wainwright struck Carlos Beltran out to end the 2006 NLCS and the present-day relationship between the new teammates. Here are more of today's links…
- Third base prospect Anthony Rendon is impressing Nationals scouts and front office personnel this spring, according to Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post. Rendon, a first round pick in 2011, doesn't appear to be far removed from the Major Leagues. Third baseman Ryan Zimmerman just signed a long-term deal, but Rendon says he is comfortable at second base.
- In a chat with fans at MLB.com, Astros GM Jeff Luhnow said the club still needs to "add to [their] depth" and land an impact prospect with the first overall pick in June's draft.
- The Royals' Opening Day payroll figures to be in the $57MM range, Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star tweets. Dutton has the full breakdown here.
Cafardo On Oswalt, Angels, Bourjos, Rodriguez, Lowe
Here's a look at some highlights from today's column by Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe..
- One National League GM said that Roy Oswalt's desire to pitch closer to home has some teams wondering if the hurler might not be enthused about pitching this season. "Everyone knows he has back issues, but the thing that bothered teams was that all of a sudden, he wanted to be closer to home and wanted to start picking and choosing where he wanted to be. A lot of people felt he lost that desire he used to have to pitch, and now we’re seeing him say, ‘Maybe I’ll show up somewhere around midseason and make just as much as I’d make if I signed now,'" said the GM.
- The Angels are unlikely to outright release Bobby Abreu as they owe him $9MM, but their efforts to deal him have been fruitless so far.
- Peter Bourjos, meanwhile, is still prominent on the Nationals’ wish list for center fielders, but the Angels want considerable value back if they deal him. With Torii Hunter in the final year of his contract, there is room for the Halos to keep both Bourjos and Mike Trout.
- Astros left-hander Wandy Rodriguez will be a top "go get" guy before the deadline for teams needing an extra piece. Astros people remain surprised at the lack of interest in Rodriguez, even with the club willing to pick up about half the $36MM owed to him.
- Indians pitcher Derek Lowe has strong interest in returning to the Red Sox after this season as a starter or reliever. Cafardo writes that the veteran could have been an interesting solution as the BoSox's fourth or fifth starter, but picking up a large chunk his salary from the Braves didn't interest Boston.
- Jason Varitek's friends still insist that he is leaning toward retirement as he can’t envision himself in a non-Red Sox uniform. However, he feels that he can still play and at least be a backup catcher somewhere.
Astros Keeping Tabs On Jorge Soler
The Astros are keeping tabs on powerful Cuban outfielder Jorge Soler as he nears free agency, GM Jeff Luhnow told Zachary Levine of the Houston Chronicle. Soler, who is represented by Praver/Shapiro, is not yet a free agent, but Luhnow has seen him and is in contact with his camp.
Baseball America ranks the Astros' farm system 17th in the game, but ESPN's Keith Law has them 27th. With 11 picks in the first ten rounds of the 2012 draft including the first overall, the Astros have MLB's second-largest allowance at $11.1777MM, according to Baseball America. BA's Jim Callis would rank Soler 43rd on their top 100, better than any Astros prospect aside from Jonathan Singleton. With the new $2.9MM international spending cap beginning with the 2012 July 2nd class, Soler represents the last chance for any team to bid eight figures for a raw international free agent.