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Braves Acquire Lewin Diaz From Orioles

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The Braves have acquired first baseman Lewin Díaz from the Orioles for cash, according to announcements from both teams. Atlanta’s 40-man roster count jumps to 39.

Díaz has bounced around the league in the past few weeks. Designated for assignment by the Marlins in advance of the deadline to add prospects to the 40-man to keep them out of the Rule 5 draft, Díaz has moved from the Pirates to the Orioles on successive waiver claims. Baltimore took him off their roster yesterday upon signing Mychal Givens, and his stint in the organization proves exceptionally brief.

Atlanta is near the bottom of the waiver order, so they jumped the line by sending some cash to Baltimore. In the process, they’ll add a player who’s clearly of interest to a few teams around the league. Díaz hasn’t managed much of an MLB track record, but he’s shown enough as a minor leaguer to have some appeal to clubs.

A left-handed hitting first baseman, he’s managed just a .181/.227/.340 line in 112 MLB games with Miami. Díaz took a personal-high 174 trips to the plate in 2022, posting a .169/.224/.288 slash with a 31% strikeout rate. He showed better during a more extended stretch at Triple-A Jacksonville, hitting .252/.323/.492 with 19 home runs and a 20.4% strikeout percentage across 368 plate appearances.

An aggressive offensive approach has given Díaz problems to this stage of his MLB career. He was a quality prospect for an extended stretch in the Miami farm system, though, with evaluators praising his power upside and defensive acumen. Public metrics like Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast’s Outs Above Average have loved his glovework during his 753 2/3 MLB innings to date. He’s exclusively a first baseman, so despite the quality of his defense, he’ll need the bat to carry him if he’s to hold a roster spot. Atlanta obviously has Matt Olson entrenched at the position; Díaz will try to carve out a depth role behind him.

The 26-year-old is out of minor league option years. If the Braves carry him on their 40-man roster for the rest of the offseason, they’ll have to keep him in the majors or again expose him to other teams. It’s possible Atlanta tries to sneak him through waivers at some point before Spring Training, though no team has yet been successful in that attempt.

Orioles Acquire James McCann From Mets

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The Mets and Orioles swung a trade late Wednesday night, with Baltimore acquiring James McCann and cash considerations for a player to be named later. New York is reportedly covering $19MM of the $24MM still remaining on McCann’s contract over the next two years. To create a spot on the 40-man roster, Baltimore designated infielder Tyler Nevin for assignment.

It looked like only a matter of time before McCann changed teams. New York agreed to terms with Omar Narváez on a two-year contract last Thursday. As soon as news of that agreement broke, it became clear the Mets were going to deal one of their incumbent backstops, with McCann the likeliest candidate. Neither McCann nor Tomás Nido could be sent to the minor leagues, and carrying three catchers on the 26-man roster would’ve been challenging. That’s before considering top prospect Francisco Álvarez, who figures to get an extended MLB look at some point soon after debuting late in the 2022 season.

McCann will secure his roster spot in Baltimore. The O’s entered the day with just one catcher on their 40-man roster, making it an inevitability they’d bring in some help from outside the organization. Of course, that backstop is AL Rookie of the Year runner-up Adley Rutschman. McCann will have to move into a backup role with the O’s.

The past couple seasons have been rough for McCann, who first joined the Mets over the 2020-21 offseason. New York placed a sizable bet on the veteran backstop’s previous couple seasons with the White Sox. The University of Arkansas product had hit .276/.334/.474 through 587 plate appearances for Chicago between 2019-20. That handily dwarfed the .240/.288/.366 mark he’d posted over the preceding four-plus seasons with the Tigers, and the Mets clearly felt he’d turned a corner offensively. They inked him to a four-year, $40.6MM free agent contract that beat most expectations.

New York gave McCann extended run in his first season, starting him at catcher for 97 of their 162 games in 2021. His production more closely resembled that of his Detroit days, however. He hit .232/.294/.349 over 412 plate appearances, connecting on just 10 home runs after hitting 18 longballs in his only full season with the White Sox. Nevertheless, McCann was back in the Opening Day lineup for the second season of the deal as the Mets hoped for a bounceback campaign.

That wasn’t to be, as he struggled with both underperformance and injury this year. The veteran fractured the hamate bone in his left hand/wrist in mid-May. He required surgery and lost six weeks to rehab. A few weeks after his return, he suffered a strain in his left oblique and went back on the injured list for a little less than a month. In between the health setbacks, he managed just a .195/.257/.282 line in 61 games. By the time the postseason rolled around, Nido was starting behind the dish. McCann was relegated to a depth role, while Álvarez was with the big league club in a catcher/DH hybrid capacity.

The past two seasons certainly aren’t what the Mets had envisioned when they signed McCann. As a result, they’re left to pay down a notable chunk of the remaining money on his contract. His deal was backloaded, with a $600K signing bonus followed by successive $8MM salaries in the first two seasons. He’s due $12MM in each of the next two years, the bulk of which will remain on the Mets’ ledger.

While New York only sheds $5MM in actual salary, the savings from the trade are a bit more than that for owner Steve Cohen and his front office. New York is going to shatter all four thresholds of the competitive balance tax, meaning they’re paying a 90% tax for every additional dollar they spend next season.

Tim Healey of Newsday tweets that New York’s CBT hit on McCann will recalculate to encompass the two years and $19MM they’re still paying — a $9.5MM average annual value. His contract had previously counted for $10.6MM against the team’s tax ledger (reflecting the AAV of his four-year deal), so they’ll shave roughly $1.1MM off their CBT number. That translates to $990K in tax savings this year. If they surpass all four CBT thresholds again next year, they’d be taxed at 110% on every dollar spent beyond the fourth threshold. Shaving $1.1MM off their CBT mark would pick up around $1.21MM in tax savings that season.

Paying down the deal makes it a reasonable proposition for the Orioles. A $5MM commitment spread over two years is minimal for a veteran catcher. Players like Mike Zunino and Austin Hedges have signed one-year deals in the $5-6MM range recently as free agents. Those players will take on a larger role in their new destinations than McCann will with the Orioles, but he’d have fit in that group were he available on the open market. The O’s are nowhere near the luxury tax threshold, so the money New York saves in that regard is of little consequence to the O’s.

There’s no question it’s Rutschman’s job, but McCann offers a respected and experienced voice behind him on the depth chart. After a few seasons of subpar pitch framing numbers, he has rated as a slightly above-average framer in two of the past three years. McCann doesn’t have a great arm, but he’ll bring competent receiving when called upon in Rutschman’s stead. A situational role could allow manager Brandon Hyde to work him in against left-handed pitching, against which he has a career .258/.325/.458 mark. They’ll presumably look to shield him from righties, who have limited him to a meager .237/.284/.351 line.

It’s a minimal financial hit for Baltimore, and the acquisition cost will be minor. It’s not likely the player to be named later will be a prospect of much renown, with the Mets not negotiating from a position of strength. For the most part, the swap is about the Mets clearing the roster spot and some money. Baltimore will plug the #2 catcher spot they’d been seeking to address.

Doing so means they risk losing Nevin, who was bumped from the 40-man roster. The son of Angels skipper Phil Nevin, Tyler briefly debuted in the majors in 2021, but the bulk of his MLB experience came this past season. He hit just .197/.299/.261 with a pair of home runs across his first 184 trips to the plate. Nevin appeared at all four corner positions but rated poorly in the eyes of public metrics for his work at third base.

Prospect evaluators have long considered Nevin more of a bat-first player, so his defensive struggles at the hot corner aren’t too surprising. Baltimore has stockpiled plenty of upper level talent in the infield that had surpassed or was likely to soon leapfrog Nevin on the depth chart. They’ll now have a week to trade him or place him on waivers.

While Nevin doesn’t have much MLB experience, he’s only 25 and has a more respectable Triple-A track record. The righty is a .246/.328/.417 hitter through 644 plate appearances at the top minor league level. Nathan Ruiz of the Baltimore Sun tweets the O’s were granted a fourth minor league option year, meaning  any team that acquired Nevin could bounce him between the majors and Triple-A for another season.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the Orioles were acquiring McCann. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com first reported the Mets were receiving a player to be named later and that the O’s were covering $5MM in salary.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Orioles Designate Lewin Díaz For Assignment

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The Orioles have announced their deal with reliever Mychal Givens, making it official. In a corresponding move, first baseman Lewin Díaz has been designated for assignment.

Díaz, 26, was originally signed by the Twins and was highly-touted as a prospect due to his power bat and strong first base defense. Baseball America ranked him one of the top 30 Minnesota farmhands in four straight seasons from 2015 to 2018. The Twins flipped him to the Marlins in a 2019 trade that sent Sergio Romo and Chris Vallimont the other way.

Díaz has spent the past few seasons in the Marlins’ system, hitting well in the upper levels of the minors but struggling in the majors. Over the past three MLB seasons, he’s made 343 plate appearances but has a paltry .181/.227/.340 batting line to show for it. In Triple-A over the past two seasons, however, he’s hit 39 home runs in 680 plate appearances and has a much more palatable .250/.325/.504 line. That production was 15% better than league average, as evidenced by his 115 wRC+.

On the defensive side of things, his big league numbers are much more positive. He always was graded well for his glove work as a prospect and that seems to be holding true as he’s reached the majors. Defensive Runs Saved has given him a +16 grade so far, with Ultimate Zone Rating coming in at 3.4 and Outs Above Average at +9.

That work in the field gives Díaz a solid floor as a glove-first option, with his strong offense in the minors giving some hope that he could develop into a two-way contributor. He’s now out of options but is still young and has just over a year of MLB service time. There’s enough intrigue in his profile to attract clubs around the league. The Marlins designated him for assignment in November but he has since landed with the Pirates and Orioles on waiver claims. The O’s will now have a week to trade him or pass him through waivers.

Orioles Sign Mychal Givens To One-Year Deal

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Dec. 21: The Orioles officially announced the deal today.

Dec. 19 6:22pm: Feinsand reports the specifics of the mutual option (on Twitter): Givens receives a $3MM salary in 2023. The option price is valued at $6MM. If Givens declines his end of next year’s option, he’d receive a $1MM buyout. If he triggers the option but the Orioles decline their end, he’d pick up a $2MM buyout.

6:08pm: The deal contains a mutual option for the 2024 campaign, report Dan Connolly and Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic (Twitter link).

5:50pm: It will be a one-year deal for Givens with a $5MM guarantee, per Mark Feinsand of MLB.com.

5:40pm: The Orioles and reliever Mychal Givens are in agreement on a contract, per Robert Murray of FanSided. The terms of the deal, which is pending a physical, are not yet known. The club’s 40-man roster is full, meaning a corresponding move will be required once the deal is official. Givens is represented by Excel Sports Management.

Givens, 33 in May, returns to his original organization, as the O’s drafted him back in 2009. He worked his way up to the majors and debuted with them in 2015, establishing himself as a solid MLB reliever in the years to come. In each of the three seasons from 2016 to 2018, he made at least 66 appearances for Baltimore, throwing at least 74 2/3 innings and never posting an ERA higher than 3.99. In 2019, he took a noticeable step back, posting a 4.57 ERA, though it’s worth pointing out that was the season of the “juiced balls” and his 22.8% home run per fly ball rate was almost double his career rate of 12.1%.

In the three seasons since, Givens has made that 2019 showing look more and more like an outlier. He’s bounced to the Rockies, Reds, Cubs and Mets in that time, posting a 3.41 ERA over that three-year period. For his career as a whole, Givens has a 3.40 ERA over 419 appearances, with a 28.4% strikeout rate, 9.8% walk rate and 37.9% ground ball rate.

The club has some exciting young pitchers in their bullpen, such as Félix Bautista, Dillon Tate and Cionel Pérez, but Givens will give them an experienced option. If the club is in contention down the stretch, he can play a key role for them, but he could also turn into deadline fodder otherwise. That would be nothing new for Givens, as he’s been traded near the deadline in each of the past three years.

Givens reached free agency for the first time after 2021 and signed with the Cubs for 2022. It was a one-year deal with a mutual option, with Givens making $3.5MM in salary and a $1.5MM buyout on the option, amounting to a $5MM guarantee but with $1.25MM available in bonuses as well. He’ll land a matching deal this time around.

The Orioles have given out one-year deals to Kyle Gibson and Adam Frazier already this offseason, adding some veteran presence around their young core. The O’s had just $60MM committed to their 2023 payroll thus far, per Roster Resource, and this move pushes them up around $64MM. The club’s ledger for 2024 remains completely blank, aside from the buyout figures attached to Givens’ mutual option.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Orioles Unlikely To Sign Trey Mancini

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As free agents are coming off the board, former Oriole Trey Mancini is one of the few players left on the open market that’s a viable everyday contributor. However, it doesn’t seem like a return to Baltimore is in the cards, according to report from Dan Connolly of The Athletic. He says that the club made some initial contact with him but that little progress was made.

Mancini has been with the Orioles for much of his career thus far, having been drafted by them in 2013 and sticking with the club until a deadline trade to the Astros in 2022. He debuted in 2016 but cemented himself as an everyday player at a time when the club’s fans had little to get excited about. From 2017 to 2021, the Orioles finished last in the American League East in all four full seasons and finished fourth in the shortened 2020 campaign. But in the first three of those years, Mancini hit at least 24 home runs and hit a combined .275/.334/.480 for a wRC+ of 114, indicating he was 14% better than league average over that stretch.

A battle with colon cancer wiped out his 2020 season, but Mancini provided a feel-good story in 2021, returning to play 147 games and hit another 21 home runs. He finished that season with a batting line of .255/.326/.432, 105 wRC+. He got out to a strong start in 2022, hitting .268/.347/.404 for a wRC+ of 116. He was then flipped to the Astros at the deadline and wilted down the stretch. He hit just .176/.258/.364 as an Astro in the regular season, and followed that up with a dreary .048/.125/.048 line over 24 postseason plate appearances. That wasn’t the best way for Mancini to enter free agency for the first time, but his larger track record is still solid. He has a career wRC+ of 111 and the ability to play above-average first base defense, in addition to the occasional trip to an outfield corner.

Though many fans in Baltimore would surely be excited by Mancini’s return, there are reasons for the club to not have too much interest. They already have a right-handed hitting first baseman in Ryan Mountcastle, who still is under club control for another four years. The roster is also crowded elsewhere, which likely means the club wants to keep the designated hitter slot open to be used based on how other situations play out. Mountcastle, Jorge Mateo, Gunnar Henderson, Ramón Urías and Adam Frazier are lined up to handle the infield positions in some combination, with Lewin Díaz and Terrin Vavra candidates for bench jobs. They also have infield prospects on the way in the form of Joey Ortiz, Jordan Westburg, Coby Mayo and Connor Norby. In the outfield, they have Cedric Mullins, Austin Hays, Anthony Santander and Kyle Stowers, with prospect Colton Cowser likely to debut at some point in 2023. Given all of those young options, it would be a bit tough to slot Mancini into the picture without blocking some of their up-and-coming players.

If he’s not back to Baltimore, then Mancini will have to look for his next opportunity elsewhere. He was connected to the Cubs about two weeks ago, with Jon Heyman of The New York Post reiterating that connection earlier today. For the Cubs or any other club looking for first base upgrades, José Abreu, Josh Bell and Anthony Rizzo are off the board, but Mancini, Yuli Gurriel, Brandon Belt, Luke Voit and others are still available.

Orioles Have Received Trade Interest In Jorge Mateo

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The Orioles are drawing interest from other clubs in shortstop Jorge Mateo, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic. The specific teams in contact with Baltimore aren’t clear, although he’s a natural fallback target for clubs that haven’t addressed the position via free agency.

A former top prospect in the Yankees and Oakland farm systems, Mateo at times can be undone by an overaggressive approach at the plate. He’s walked in fewer than 5% of his MLB plate appearances while striking out nearly 28% of the time, leading to a dismal .271 career on-base percentage. Things were even more extreme this past season, as his .267 OBP topped only that of Jonathan Schoop and Cody Bellinger among hitters with 500+ plate appearances.

While Mateo doesn’t have an especially well-rounded skillset, he tapped into the physical gifts that made him a high-end prospect this year. After bouncing from the A’s to the Padres, the 27-year-old landed in Baltimore late in 2021 via waiver claim. He got his first everyday run at the major league level this past season. Mateo’s plate discipline profile was ghastly, but he demonstrated his top-tier athleticism. He stole an AL-best 35 bases in 44 attempts, showcasing the speed that garnered top-of-the-scale grades when he was a prospect.

As Rosenthal points out, that kind of athleticism could be particularly appealing in light of the rules changes going into effect for the 2023 season. MLB is instituting a limit on the number of times a pitcher can step off the mound in a plate appearance and enlarging the bases, both of which should at least moderately incentivize base-stealing.

The league is also instituting limitations on defensive shifting, requiring clubs to keep two infielders on either side of the second base bag and four players on the infield dirt. Teams could place more of a premium on athletic defenders as a result, since it’ll be more difficult to compensate for players who have below-average range via strategic positioning.

Mateo thrived defensively this year, posting top-tier marks in over 1250 innings at shortstop. Defensive Runs Saved pegged him as 14 runs above average at the position, the third-highest mark in MLB. Statcast estimated Mateo at eight runs above par, tying him for fourth among shortstops. He showcased both high-end range and above-average arm strength and looks to have emerged as a plus defender.

Maintaining that kind of defensive production will be critical for Mateo unless he takes a significant step forward in his offensive development. This year’s .211/.267/.379 line was 18 percentage points worse than average, by measure of wRC+. His baserunning means he’s not completely a glove-only player, but he’ll need to sustain high-end defensive marks to remain valuable with such tepid output at the plate. That Mateo is attracting interest from other teams in spite of his offense is a testament both to his secondary skills and the scarcity of alternatives.

The star-studded free agent shortstop class was one of the stories of the offseason. All four of the top players — Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson — ended up changing teams. That somewhat surprising amount of shuffling leads to the Twins, Dodgers, Red Sox and Braves having to identify new solutions to replace their outgoing stars.

All four clubs have some internal possibilities, but none are ideal situations. Minnesota acquired Kyle Farmer from the Reds as a stopgap option, while Royce Lewis is expected back midseason after his tearing the ACL in his right knee for a second straight year. The Dodgers can move Gavin Lux from second base to shortstop while relying on some combination of Max Muncy, Chris Taylor and prospects like Jacob Amaya or Miguel Vargas at the keystone. Lux is a former top prospect coming off a productive .276/.346/.399 showing, but his below-average arm strength could be a concern on the left side of the infield.

Boston has a somewhat similar situation, with Trevor Story currently likely to move back to shortstop from second base. The longtime Rockie was a plus defender at shortstop for a while, but he also has a below-average arm at this stage of his career. The Sox don’t have as strong a collection of internal second base options as L.A. does, with Christian Arroyo looking to be the favorite for playing time if Enrique Hernández stays in center field. The Braves have utilityman Orlando Arcia and rookie Vaughn Grissom — who has played 63 career games above High-A and comes with defensive question marks from prospect evaluators — as their internal candidates.

It’s sensible all four teams could explore the market for shortstop help, and clubs like the Angels and Diamondbacks could check in as well. Free agency is largely picked through at this point, with Elvis Andrus standing out as the top option remaining. José Iglesias offers a high-contact depth option and Andrelton Simmons is still an excellent defender, but neither profiles as a regular for a hopeful contender.

Trade possibilities also seems sparse. The Guardians could perhaps listen to offers on Amed Rosario for his final season of arbitration control. There’s been no indication this offseason they’re planning to do so, however. The Brewers are reportedly informing teams they’re not dealing Willy Adames; the same is true of the White Sox with Tim Anderson. Players like Nick Ahmed or Nicky Lopez could be dealt, but they’re defense-only types who’d be below-average everyday players for a win-now team.

Mateo is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $1.8MM salary during his first season of arbitration eligibility. He’ll go through the process twice more before hitting the open market after the 2025 campaign. That extended window of control means the Orioles don’t have to deal him, and there’s no indication they’re actively shopping him. Baltimore’s rebuild is in the rearview mirror, and Mateo’s modest arbitration salary isn’t placing any financial pressure on the organization.

There’s logic for general manager Mike Elias and his staff to entertain trade offers, though, particularly if they’re wary of Mateo’s ability to maintain his 2022 pace with the glove. The lack of other options for teams desperate for shortstop help could increase their sense of urgency to pursue him, while Baltimore has a number of prospects they hope will eventually unseat him as the franchise shortstop.

Gunnar Henderson debuted at the end of the season, primarily working at third base in deference to Mateo. The O’s could roll with a left side infield of Mateo and Henderson while having Ramón Urías and the recently-signed Adam Frazier share reps at second base. Baltimore has highly-regarded prospects Jordan Westburg and Joey Ortiz just behind that group, with both players coming off quality seasons for Triple-A Norfolk. Westburg and Ortiz — the latter of whom is already on the 40-man roster — could each find themselves in the majors fairly early in the 2023 campaign, and both are regarded by various prospect evaluators as potential everyday shortstops.

Orioles Sign Three Pitchers To Minor League Deals

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The Orioles announced the signing of three right-handers — Eduard Bazardo, Kyle Dowdy and Wandisson Charles — to minor league contracts this evening. All three are relievers who’ll add to Baltimore’s bullpen depth without requiring a spot on the 40-man roster.

Bazardo has spent his entire career in the AL East. A former international signee of the Red Sox, he played parts of seven seasons in the Boston system. The Venezuela native has primarily pitched at Triple-A Worcester over the last two years, tallying 68 2/3 innings of 4.33 ERA ball. Bazardo has fanned an average 23.1% of opposing hitters at that level against a solid 7.7% walk rate, securing fairly brief looks in the majors in each of the past two seasons.

The 27-year-old tallied 19 1/3 MLB innings over 14 appearances, allowing five runs. That’s a strong mark but wasn’t supported by a fairly modest 14:8 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Boston ran Bazardo through outright waivers in each of the last two years and he elected minor league free agency after going unclaimed in October. He averaged 94 MPH on his fastball and generated a decent number of whiffs on his low-80’s breaking ball in his limited big league look.

Dowdy pitched 22 1/3 innings as a Rule 5 draftee for the Rangers back in 2019, walking more batters than he struck out while posting a 7.25 ERA. Returned to the Cleveland system midseason, he spent the next couple years in the minor leagues. Dowdy returned to the bigs for a very brief stint with the Reds this September, making two appearances. He worked 6 1/3 scoreless innings for Cincinnati, albeit with just three strikeouts and walks apiece. Cincinnati non-tendered him at the end of the year to reallocate his spot on the 40-man roster to prospects they didn’t want to lose in the Rule 5 draft.

A University of Houston product, Dowdy turns 30 in February. He spent most of this year with the Reds highest affiliate in Louisville, pitching to a 3.96 ERA across 52 1/3 frames. Dowdy punched out 24% of opponents but issued walks at a significant 13.3% clip. Strike-throwing has been a consistent issue throughout his career, as he’s walked 12.7% of batters faced over four Triple-A seasons. He averaged a bit north of 96 MPH on his heater during his limited MLB look with Cincinnati.

Charles, 26, has yet to reach the majors. He secured a spot on the A’s 40-man roster over the 2020-21 offseason, which he held until this August. Oakland designated him for assignment and ran him through waivers amidst a grisly 2022 showing at Double-A Midland, and he reached free agency at season’s end. The native of the Dominican Republic posted an 11.43 ERA over 37 innings for the RockHounds, walking an untenable 18.8% of opponents with a 16.8% strikeout rate. The Orioles will hope a change of scenery can get him back on track. Prior to this year, Charles had garnered modest praise from prospect evaluators for a fastball that reaches the upper-90s.

Orioles, Angels, Rangers Have Shown Interest In Rich Hill

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12:10pm: Chris Cotillo of MassLive reports that the Angels and Rangers have also shown interest in Hill this off-season. Texas has been active in the starting pitcher market already, landing Jacob deGrom on a five-year, $185MM deal, Andrew Heaney on a two-year, $25MM deal, bringing back Martin Perez via the qualifying offer and trading for Jake Odorizzi. With that quartet joining Jon Gray, there’s not an obvious rotation fit for Hill there, but it’s entirely possible their interest in the veteran came prior to their free agent signings.

The Angels have added Tyler Anderson on a three-year, $39MM deal to a rotation led by Shohei Ohtani. Left-handers Patrick Sandoval, Reid Detmers and Jose Suarez round out a typical five-man rotation, and all three have shown plenty of promise. Yet the Angels have tended to go with a six-man rotation to manage Ohtani’s workload, and while they’ve said they’ll be a bit more aggressive with Ohtani’s workload in 2023, adding a veteran arm certainly makes sense for the Halos.

8:34am: The Orioles are showing interest in free agent starter Rich Hill, according to Rob Bradford of WEEI. The team has already signed right-hander Kyle Gibson to a one-year, $10MM deal this off-season, but has long been rumored to be in the market for multiple veteran starters to bolster their rotation.

Hill, 42, played out last season on a one-year, $5MM (with $3MM more in incentives available) deal with the Red Sox – the seventh contract the Massachusetts local had signed with the team. The left-hander made 26 starts, tossing 124 1/3 innings of 4.27 ERA ball. He did miss some time with a left knee strain, but on the whole kept his strikeout and walk rates in line with a year earlier (below average strikeout rate, above average walk rate). A year prior, Hill threw 154 1/3 innings of 3.86 ERA ball between time with the Rays and Mets, so while there’s a natural durability risk with a 42-year-old pitcher, Hill has made 57 starts over the past two seasons.

The veteran’s career has been something of a journey, spanning 18 years and 11 different teams. He originally debuted with the Cubs back in 2005, and spent the next ten seasons moving around the big leagues a bit, initially working as a starter before moving to the bullpen. A four-start, 1.55 ERA stint with the Red Sox in late in 2015 propelled a late-career resurgence for Hill, and he turned that into a one-year deal to pitch out of Oakland’s rotation.

Hill would turn in 14 starts of 2.25 ERA ball for the A’s in 2016, striking out batters at a 28.9% clip. He’d continue his front-of-the-rotation form even after a trade to the Dodgers, working to a 1.83 ERA over six starts down the stretch in LA. With a strong full season of work under his belt, LA opted to bring Hill back on a three-year, $48MM deal starting in 2017. It’d prove a wise move, as Hill would wind up making 68 starts of 3.16 ERA during his time with the Dodgers.

Things have dropped off a little in recent years for Hill, with his strikeout rate down almost 10% from 2019. Nonetheless, he still remains a solid back-of-the-rotation veteran arm. That holds plenty of appeal for the Orioles, who came into the off-season looking for rotation help. Jordan Lyles was the only pitcher to top 23 starts in 2022, but was bought out of an $11MM option and is a free agent.

As things stand, the Orioles’ rotation currently projects to include Kyle Gibson, Dean Kremer, Kyle Bradish, Tyler Wells and top pitching prospect Grayson Rodriguez. Outside of Gibson, Wells’ two years of service time makes him the most senior in that group, while Rodriguez – as good as he projects to be – is yet to pitch in the big leagues, so the addition of a veteran arm certainly makes sense.

Baltimore is one of the 11 teams Hill has appeared for in the past, making 13 starts for the team back in 2009. That particular stint didn’t go so well, as Hill worked to a 7.80 ERA across 57 2/3 innings and wouldn’t make another big league start until turning his career around in Boston in 2015.

Hill was earlier linked to a return to Boston this winter, as he described a “mutual interest” between the two sides in working on an eighth contract there. This interest from Baltimore presents as Hill’s first reported alternative this winter.

Orioles Sign Adam Frazier To One-Year Deal

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The Orioles and infielder/outfielder Adam Frazier are in agreement on a one-year, $8MM contract, reports Jon Heyman of The New York Post. The O’s subsequently announced the signing.

It’s a belated birthday present for Frazier, who turned 31 years old yesterday. The veteran spent the first five years of his career with the Pirates but has bounced to the Padres and Mariners over the past couple of seasons. One of his most attractive traits is his defensive versatility, as he’s played all three outfield positions as well as the three infield positions to the left of first base.

Though he might be a bit stretched at shortstop or in center, he generally gets solid grades for his work at the corners and at second. All three of Defensive Runs Saved, Ultimate Zone Rating and Outs Above Average give him positive numbers for his career at second and in left, while DRS and UZR also favor his work in right field. At second base, where he’s spent the vast majority of his time, he’s tallied 15 DRS, 1.5 from UZR and 11 OAA.

Offensively, his track record is a bit inconsistent. In his five seasons with Pittsburgh from 2016 to 2020, he was above-average in two of them, by measure of wRC+. In another two seasons, his 97 wRC+ was just below the 100 average. In the shortened 2020 season, he was down to 79. At the end of those five campaigns, his batting line was .273/.336/.413, amounting to a wRC+ of 99, just a hair under league average. Still, he was able to produce 6.8 wins above replacement due to his defensive contributions, according to FanGraphs.

In 2021, he bounced back by hitting .324/.388/.448 in 98 games with the Bucs, amounting to a wRC+ of 127. The Pirates flipped him to the Padres at the deadline but he wilted down the stretch. He hit .267/.327/.335 with San Diego for a wRC+ of 86. The Friars then traded him to the Mariners prior to 2022, but his struggles continued. As a Mariner, he hit .238/.301/.311 for a wRC+ of 81.

Despite that inconsistent track record at the plate, Frazier is a solid fit for a Baltimore team that is still trying to chart its path forward. They have a number of infielders and outfielders who are still trying to get accustomed to the major leagues or have not yet made it to the show. Jorge Mateo had a solid defensive season at shortstop but didn’t hit much and struck out in 27.6% of his plate appearances. Gunnar Henderson had a solid debut in 2022 and seems to be ticketed for third base duty, though he’s also played second and shortstop. Ramón Urías had also been a solid contributor, even winning a Gold Glove at third base this year, though Henderson’s arrival seems to have bumped him into a utility role. Terrin Vavra could also be in the mix for a bench/utility job. Infield prospects like Joey Ortiz, Jordan Westburg and Coby Mayo could get to the big leagues in 2023 and further crowd the picture.

The O’s could conceivably platoon the left-handed hitting Frazier with the right-handed Urías at second base, though both players could also move to other positions if Baltimore wants to give some extended playing time to a young prospect. If Frazier’s bat bounces back or he’s simply getting squeezed out by other players, they could trade him at the deadline given his one-year deal.

The Orioles took a huge step forward in 2022, winning 83 games after five straight dismal seasons. Nonetheless, it seems like 2023 will be another evaluation season, as the club still has many young prospects who need to either make their major league debuts or continue acclimating to the big leagues. Frazier has the ability to slot in wherever he’s needed, giving the club a reliable defender who also has a chance to contribute with the bat. Whether the club can truly compete in 2023 or not, Frazier is likely to be a serviceable addition.

This is the second signing of the offseason for the O’s, as they also signed Kyle Gibson for a one-year, $10MM deal. Since both are one-year contracts, the club continues to have no commitments on the books for 2024, as they have completely avoided multi-year deals in recent years. The last time they signed a free agent to a deal longer than a single season was with Alex Cobb back in 2018. Roster Resource calculates their payroll as now just under $60MM, which is already a sizeable increase over last year’s $44MM figure, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Orioles Interested In Michael Wacha

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The Orioles are showing interest in free agent starter Michael Wacha, reports Jon Morosi of MLB.com (Twitter link). They’re the first team of the offseason known to be checking in on the right-hander, who’s coming off a decent season with the division-rival Red Sox.

Wacha, 31, inked a one-year, $7MM deal with Boston last offseason. He’d posted a 5.05 ERA in 124 2/3 innings with the Rays the year before and hadn’t found much success keeping runs off the board since 2018. The Red Sox nevertheless took on a flier on a bounceback, placing their faith in a fastball that sat around 94 MPH and a swinging strike rate that had been north of 11% in each of the preceding two seasons.

The former first-round pick rewarded them with his most successful year in a while. Wacha made 23 starts and tallied 127 1/3 innings, pitching to a quality 3.32 ERA. He landed on the injured list twice — first with a left intercostal strain, then with inflammation in his throwing shoulder — but generally kept runs off the board when healthy. Wacha allowed three or fewer runs in 17 of his outings while holding opponents to a .233/.283/.410 line in 515 plate appearances.

Strong control helped him keep runners off base, as he walked only 6% of opponents. Wacha has established himself as a quality strike-thrower, but there also seems to have been a decent amount of fortune in this year’s results. Opponents hit just .260 on their balls in play against him, the lowest BABIP he’d allowed in five years. Wacha’s 20.2% strikeout rate and 41% ground-ball percentage were each slightly lower than the league average.

The Texas A&M product also saw minor dips in his swinging strike number and velocity. He generated whiffs on 9.5% of his pitches, below his 2020-21 levels. Wacha’s average fastball speed also lost a tick, dipping from 93.8 MPH in 2021 to an even 93 MPH this year. ERA estimators like FIP (4.14) and SIERA (4.07) each pegged his true talent a bit north of 4.00 — still useful production, but not quite as impressive as his actual ERA might suggest.

Even if Wacha’s run prevention regresses somewhat, he’s a sensible target for clubs seeking rotation help. Wacha has ten seasons of MLB experience under his belt, and he carries a 4.05 ERA in over 1100 career innings. Other than a brief spike in walks towards the end of his time in St. Louis, he’s shown consistently plus control. That kind of reliability makes him a fine fit at the back half of a contending club’s rotation.

The Orioles entered the offseason searching for rotation help. Jordan Lyles was the only Baltimore pitcher to top 23 starts this past season, and the O’s bought out an $11MM club option at year’s end to send him to the open market. Dean Kremer, Austin Voth, Tyler Wells and Spenser Watkins all posted serviceable or better ERA’s over 15-plus starts, but Voth was the only one with a strikeout rate around league average. Kyle Bradish had a decent strikeout rate but an ERA pushing 5.00. Mike Baumann and DL Hall joined Bradish in seeing some MLB action as rookies, while top prospect Grayson Rodriguez may well have debuted this year if not for a lat injury.

The O’s had a number of internal options to compete for jobs on Brandon Hyde’s starting staff, but everyone in the mix had either limited or no track record of MLB success. Baltimore thus brought in Kyle Gibson on a one-year, $10MM deal last month to add some veteran stability. They’re still expected to add another starter, and Wacha’s one of the remaining options in a free agent class that’s rapidly thinning. MLBTR predicted Wacha for a two-year, $16MM deal at the start of the offseason. He’s one of five unsigned starting pitchers who’d secured a spot on MLBTR’s top 50 free agents, alongside Carlos Rodón, Nathan Eovaldi, Corey Kluber and Drew Rucinski.

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